Elvis Andrus and the sacrifice bunts
by Adam J. Morris on May 20, 2010 11:33 AM CDT
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PrintElvis Andrus has a .321 batting average, a .421 OBP, and is leading the A.L. in sacrifice bunts, with 8.
8 sacrifices so far this season, with a guy with an OBP over .400.
That's mind-blowing.
There have been 6 players since 1980 who have had at least 8 SHs in a season where they hit over .300 and had an OBP over .400.
Robbie Alomar did it three times, with 12 sacrifices, 9 sacrifices, and 8 sacrifices. Luis Castillo had 9 sacrifices one year. Tommie Herr and Wade Boggs each had 8. Craig Biggio had 11 one year. And Brett Butler had an incredible 24 in 1992.
Elvis is on pace to end up with 32 sacrifices this season. There have been only 2 players with at least 30 sacrifices in a season since 1980 -- Jay Bell, who did it twice in the Leyland/Bonds era Pirates, in 1990 and 1991, and Felix Fermin, a terrible hitter for the 1989 Indians.
I'm flabbergasted by this. And I'm probably more frustrated by it than I otherwise would be because every time it happens, it seems to be praised by those in the media as being team-oriented, fundamental baseball, doing the little things to help the team win.
Having Elvis Andrus bunt last night with two on and nobody out isn't good, smart, fundamental baseball. It is stupid baseball, and continuing to do this throughout the season is going to cost the team runs, and games.
And it is making me crazy.
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AMEN!!
I’m going to set myself on fire in the middle of Ballpark Way if this continues.
i'm okay with it
when it’s late in the game and we need 1 run, though i’m becoming less okay with it as elvis proves he’s the hardest out in our lineup. it’s when it happens in the 4th inning and we’re down by 2 that it drives me crazy.
All of this just proves that Washington is NOT the baseball mind some people thought he was
in fact he uses his gut more than his mind, which really does not work well as a manager, a coach maybe.
And you just blew my gut.
I mean mind.
"When I want my men to remember something important, to really make it stick, I give it to them double dirty."- General George S. Patton
by Aquaman, Esq. on May 20, 2010 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions
I honestly didn't mind the bunt last night
Yes at that point in the game scoring 2 runs, and taking the lead, is the goal but getting one run is a must at that point. Bunting is/was the safest way to ensure that you ended up with not only a man at 3rd and less than 2 outs but also got out of the DP possibility. Michael Young was coming up next, and as good as hes been of late, hes known for hitting into a lot of DPs. If you let Elvis swing there and he hits a GB with his speed he may beat out the DP but you still have a DP possibility with a man on 1st and 1 out.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Yes. sorry I disagree Adam.
Its perfect fundamental baseball. You put 2 runners in scoring position instead of 1. You take away the double play. The you have FACE who is extremely capable of getting a hit, hitting it to the right side of the infield, or producing a sac fly. Isn’t it the lone star the community that warns against SMALL SAMPLE SIZES? Elvis is good, lets see how he is by all star break. I would much rather have face at the plate with 2nd and 3rd with 1 out
Texas Rangers- You hang 'em, we bang 'em!
You don't have MY hitting it to the right side of the infield
You have him intentionally walked thereby resetting up a possible DP but this time a game ending DP.
That said, I’m pretty meh on the issue. Yes, Elvis has over a .400 OBP, so there’s a 40% chance he advances the runners on his own. A bunt is a 90% chance of advancing the runners into scoring position
Like I said, I’m pretty meh with this particular one. But Elvis is putting down too damn many sac bunts overall.
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
Crap - I had the situation all screwed up
I was just getting snippets of the game on MLB Tonight. If it was the middle of the game, that’s kinda dumb.
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
It was the 7th inning
Im pretty sure most consider that late in a game
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
I don't think your percentages are right
There is a 32.1% that Elvis moves the runner over with a hit that could result in more than just one base for the runner on base. There is a 40% chance that Elvis does something that has him getting on base, moving a runner over, and not creating an out at all. I don’t think there is a 90% chance that Elvis laying down a sacrifice bunt that moves the runner over. I think that is being overly optimistic with how Elvis has done at bunting.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
I actually think 90% is too low
I would say its probably 95% chance he gets it down right given the pitcher he was facing and the fact he was concentrating on a sacrifice not trying for a hit.
But lets use 90% anyway. So that means theres a 10% chance its still guys on 1st and 2nd with 1 out. if Elvis puts the ball in play theres a 60.5% chance of a runner still being at least on 1st base with 1 out (.395 BABIP and I doubt the runner advances to 2nd on a sac fly and giving Elvis the benefit of the doubt he would beat out a DP). If he strikes out theres a <1% chance of runners advancing.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
So you're telling me now
that Elvis Andrus, the guy who has “failed” multiple times this year to get a bunt down (often resulting in a strike) has a 90-95% chance to lay down the perfect sacrifice bunt.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
it doesn't have to be perfect
With Arias at 2nd and the IF playing the way they were it would have taken alot to throw someone out at 3rd base
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
That's not the only way to fail at sac bunting
What happens when he fails twice and ends up in an 0-2 count? What about just popping the bunt up and getting out without any runners being able to advance?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
All that is factored into the 5-10%
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Okay then chief
There is only a 5-10% chance of that happening
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
+1
In the seventh inning of a tie game, with as solid as the bullpen is right now, that’s the call i make too
Agree
The question I have is why someone in the FO (Ryan, Daniels, whomever) hasn’t sat Wash down and explained to him why bunting Andrus with two on and none out is just a horrible baseball decision under almost every set of circumstances. I cannot believe that the folks in the FO are just sitting on their hands here; which makes me wonder whether Ryan and/or Daniels actually endorse this strategy. The thought that they do is very troubling.
it seems almost like a rite of passage
MY has 25 career sac bunts…all in his first 3 seasons. once he established himself as a “major leaguer” with that first .300 avg, no one asked him to bunt again.
Run expectancy
What is the run expectancy for runners on 1st/2nd no outs vs 2nd/3rd one out?
Hey Tom - It's over now, so do you know how - to pick up the pieces and go home?
From an old table.
Looking at an old table, 1st and 2nd with zero is about 1.6 2nd and 3rd with one out is about 1.5
What do voluntary mean?
The dude abides.....
However, the other side
of my complaint that the RE table doesn’t tell the correct story when you have a much worse than average hitter like this year’s Borbon up, it also doesn’t tell the correct story when you have a much better than average hitter like this year’s Andrus.
Borbon tips the scale towards bunting, Andrus tips the scales towards swinging away.
"No, I'm not a pessimist. At some point the world shits on everybody. Pretending it ain't shit makes you an idiot, not an optimist."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
by DJCahill on May 20, 2010 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions 6 recs
If only Wash knew this
Live in Oregon. Grew up in Arlington. Will always love the Rangers
by TheDutchOven on May 20, 2010 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions
I rec'd it
Media members reflexively write about the “right way” to play the game without ever considering this.
Ceterum censeo, Ron Washington esse delendam
The local media (for the vast majority)
is very careful in how they criticize Ron Washington so as not to be accused of racism.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
I don't really buy that
I think they’d praise bunting no matter who the manager was. Sportswriters generally praise anything they think looks like good fundamentals, and none of them have read anything about run expectations in these situations to ever question bunting then.
Ceterum censeo, Ron Washington esse delendam
i won't argue with numbers
i intended to point out everything that can go wrong v the limited upside, but the numbers are the numbers
my focus is on the certainty of advancing the runners v the possibility of not advancing them or worse (gidp)
surprised that no one has mentioned that the possibility of a bunt single or error could have repeated itself and netted bases loaded nobody out – not a statistical likelihood, but a possiblity nonetheless
(i don’t have spell check today, but i don’t care)
defeatist pussy lives here
by sam in so cal on May 20, 2010 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions
run expectancy isn't quite the number you'd want anyway when you just need 1 run
you’d need to see the standard deviation on that, or rather the probability of not scoring at all in either situation. i’ll let the math geeks take it from there.
Here's a run frequency matrix from 99-2002.
With 1st/2nd, no outs, 0 runs were scored 35.9% of the time. With 2nd/3rd, 1 out, 0 runs were scored 30.5% of the time. With the bases loaded, 1 out, 0 runs were scored 33% of the time. So historically the sacrifice is the right move there, even after the intentional walk.
Why did you use bases loaded 1 out?
What is bases loaded, 0 outs? That is using statistics incorrectly to prove your point…
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
"Hello Win Column!!!"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 20, 2010 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Bases loaded, 0 out
0 runs were scored 13% of the time. If Andrus gets on even without driving the run home, you are still way better off than having sacrificed…
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
"Hello Win Column!!!"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 20, 2010 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions
Will you please put the pitchfork and torch down
and stop attacking Wash with every post
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
That didn't even make sense
please don’t bring that stuff into this post. It’s very immature…
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
"Hello Win Column!!!"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 20, 2010 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions
You're questioning Ron Washington aren't you?
Doesn’t that mean that you are carrying pitchforks and torches to try and bring him down?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
No
I was questioning why ClosureGT left out bases loaded, 0 outs from his percentages. I think they have an audio addition to this program if you are having trouble reading…
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
"Hello Win Column!!!"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 20, 2010 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions
He just keeps...
…getting cleverer and cleverer. Maybe internet PED’s ?
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on May 20, 2010 2:21 PM CDT up reply actions
So
no mention of him completely flubbing up a weak attempt at insulting me? I guess old allegiances die hard…
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
"Hello Win Column!!!"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 20, 2010 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions
....
If Andrus gets on even without driving the run home, you are still way better off than having sacrificed…
That sounds to me like you’re possibly questioning Ron Washington, not just ClosureGT.
Why do you hate puppies so much?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
My goodness
you are getting dumber the longer the day goes…
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
"Hello Win Column!!!"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 20, 2010 4:45 PM CDT up reply actions
I used bases loaded 1 out because the sac bunt prompted the intentional walk.
But yes, I forgot to do the other half of the comparison: that 33% vs the sum of the outcomes of not sac bunting. In that case you’ve got roughly a 60% chance of 1st/2nd/1out (though even then there could be a sac fly or something), which gives a 57.4% chance of scoring zero runs; and then .6*57.4 gives a 34.4% chance as a quick-and-dirty lower-bound for the chances of not scoring any runs if you don’t sacrifice, I think (but I haven’t double-checked my process here).
Whoops, Elvis's OBP is .421, so make that a 57.9% chance:
.579*.574 drops that to .332, but there’s still the Elvis gets on base without driving in a run and they get out of the inning anyway case to add another .421*.128 (5.39%).
Ugh, I did that last bit wrong.
5.39% would be the upper bound for that number, the actual chance of a single that doesn’t drive in a run is gonna be (considerably, I’d think) lower than is OBP.
Anyway, it looks like it’s coming out as pretty much a wash with Elvis; with bad/low-OBP hitters I’d probably favor the bunt, though.
And also I got myself totally confused on the situation. My bad.
I mixed up the 7th and 9th innings. In the 7th it would might be more useful to compare the chances of scoring 1 or fewer runs instead of (or at least in addition to) just 0; i.e., what’s going to give us the best chance of taking a lead?
More numbers...
Interestingly, the chances of scoring 2+ based on that 99-2002 data are almost identical in the 1st/2nd/0out case and the 2nd/3rd/1out case. The former gives you a 42.1%, the latter a 41.0% chance.
So a sac bunt when down one doesn’t really seem to affect your chances of taking at least a 1 run lead, all else being equal. More that you’re trading some chance of getting a bigger lead for an increased chance of at least tying.
However, like some of y’all pointed out, all else isn’t equal because you’re not just giving away an out but also a specific batter. The guys behind Elvis are hitting well now, so that helps, but when you’ve got three good hitters coming up and it’s not a do-or-die 9th inning situation I definitely say go for it.
You'd also have to take bullpen situation into account
for the complete picture. Still, it would be awesome to have a manager who at least had an acquaintance with these numbers when all things are equal that he can then use to make a better decision when in these situations. Probably asking for too much though…
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on May 20, 2010 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions
There needs to be an app for that.
I need to get a modern smartphone. That seems like it could be a cool app to write.
Wait, so the solution to all of this...
…is to get Ron Washington an iPad?
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on May 20, 2010 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions
He'd probably want an Android phone,
so he could multitask and have his Virtual Bunt 2k10 game going at the same time.
Thanks for that
I really dont think this bunting with a guy on 1/2nd with Andrus is that criminal. There are many, many more things to nitpick about with Wash. There have definitely been a few sac bunts that warranted more ire than this last one.
Feliz says his greatest thrill was striking out Boston Red Sox DH David Ortiz, one of his heroes. Yet, when he called to tell his parents, his mother had a request: Strike out New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez, too.
"So when I did that," Feliz says, "I told my mom, 'There you go. There's your present. Don't ask me to strike anyone else out, OK?'
Elvis/Sac bunt
This issue is going to be discussed on the first installment of the Baseball Prospectus podcast, “Up and In.” I’m curious to hear what KG and Goldman have to say about it.
It just seems ridiculous to take the bat out of the hands of a player that is getting on-base 42% of the time.
Antoine?
"JD gets complete blame or credit for what happens in 2010 and I think Nolan wants it that way. JD is paid to be a real GM and needs to start performing like one." - Josey Wales
by Michael Cave on May 20, 2010 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions
He likes Andrus more than people realize
I’ll be introducing the topic, and then I’m going to pass the ball to KG and Goldman. I’m sure KG will make a snarky comment, but Steven Goldman is an expert on managers and managerial procedure, so his take will be the one to focus on.
He thinks Elvis can hit singles
He just can’t do anything else.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Nope
He can’t do that either.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Is this it
“Baseball Prospectus Radio with Will Carroll”?
No
Its the new KG/BP podcast called, “Up and In,” featuring KG, various BP writers, and some handsome guy named El Magico. Recording the first episode tonight. It will probably suck.
This needs to be a fanshot
When available. Thanks.
"I support you, Wash; I’ve always supported you," Young said
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
Please post a link here
when it’s done, look forward to it. Your face was made for podcasting.
Ceterum censeo, Ron Washington esse delendam
What sucks
is that the one-run strategy has “worked” several times so Dumbass Ron Washington is going to keep using it.
Last week they got runs twice against Oakland (late) and a few other times as well. The problem is that this is not (to borrow a butchered phrase) “A punching Judy offense.”
This is an offense that can score runs in bunches if the dumbass manager would get out of the way.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
Nice use of punching Judy.
I actually like you sometimes, Josey. Actually, probably more often than not these days.
Somebody else dropped that in
a few days ago and I don’t think they knew the proper phrase.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
by Josey Wales on May 20, 2010 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions
That was me
Im just trying to contribute
Patriotism is the willingness to kill and be killed for trivial reasons.
"I like you, Private Pyle"
“You can come over to my house and -- my sister!”
by Adam J. Morris on May 20, 2010 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions
"Choke yourself!!
“If you don’t get that look off your face and start choking yourself I’m going to gouge out your eyeballs and skull-fuck you, Private Pyle.”
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
by Josey Wales on May 20, 2010 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions
Private Pyles
I guess if God wanted you on that obstacle he would have miracled you up there…
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
"Hello Win Column!!!"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 20, 2010 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions
I think R. Lee Ermey...
…needs to sit in with Josh and Tom for a few innings per night and do color commentary as the drill sergeant from FMJ.
by Adam J. Morris on May 20, 2010 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I would pay serious money for this.
I bet he would do it, too.
"When I want my men to remember something important, to really make it stick, I give it to them double dirty."- General George S. Patton
by Aquaman, Esq. on May 20, 2010 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions
Since he took the role in Saving Silverman
I have to think he’d take pretty much anything
I like his show about weapons
R. Lee I could watch on almost any show though.
"I support you, Wash; I’ve always supported you," Young said
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
He's such a badass in that show
He gets hurt a good bit too and just shrugs it off.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
you ate her
that’s the perfect crime boys…
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
"Hello Win Column!!!"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 20, 2010 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions
What could Wash's mindset be?
Possibly giving a young player an op to make a difference. Getting him addicted to influencing the game thru execution. Giving him confidence by seeing his execution in concrete positive terms. Not letting a string of failures in game-changing situations get in his young mind and effect his attitude or defense. Not saying that it doesn’t need to end sometime, but I can see where Wash is coming from coddling this guy a little. And it makes enough sense in the short-term that I cringe at the thought of a summer filled with harangues over Wash having Elvis bunt occasionally. bleah
Wash's mindset -
Managers that constantly play for one run fall under three categories…
1) Those who have a bad-ass mother like Lincecum or Koufax pitching for them when 2 or 3 runs will win the game or are playing in an otherwise pitcher friendly setting (Petco in SDO or some place where it’s cold and runs will be hard to come by).
2) Too dumb to understand the math of what they’re doing.
3) Those who want to put their stamp on the game so it looks like they’re actually doing something or making a difference. Managers like this are generally insecure.
Wash is guilty of #’s 2 & 3.
To play for 1 run in Texas when it’s warm & windy with the top of the line-up we have is unconscionable and confirmation that Ron Washington has no business managing a baseball team in The Show.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
by Josey Wales on May 20, 2010 12:19 PM CDT up reply actions
I was reading a story about the Fredi Gonzalez/Hanley Ramirez deal...
…I forget who wrote it, but it basically said as an aside that Gonzalez being scapegoated over this wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing, because he’s not a real good manager, and has a tendency to decide that if a guy appears to fit a role, that’s the role he’s going to fill, even if he doesn’t actually fit it well.
I was thinking about that last night with Elvis…even though he’s leading off, the perception of Elvis is that he’s the banjo-hitting middle infielder who can run and bunt and do the little things, and that’s the way Wash sees him. It doesn’t matter that Elvis has been performing much better than that offensively…he’s perceived as filling the role of “the guy who bunts runners over for the good hitters,” and that’s what is going to happen.
by Adam J. Morris on May 20, 2010 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions
But at this point in the season, you don't expect the swing, contact or line drive rates to regress.
And he’s probably made it deep enough in to the year you shouldn’t expect the walk rate to regress, either. The ISO is actually not even half what he put up last year.
There’s not really much reason to expect his offense to plummet. There are a few aspects of it that should drag it down some, but not down to even average.
.
Average SS is hitting a .305-.310 wOBA so far this year. Elvis wOBA’d .344 and .392 in April and May this year, respectively. His only 2 months with a wOBA below .305 were his first and fourth months in the majors.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on May 20, 2010 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions
i think this also describes Wash
has a tendency to decide that if a guy appears to fit a role, that’s the role he’s going to fill, even if he doesn’t actually fit it well.
Thank you Houston for drafting Jason Castro.
So what is your reaction today
If Wash lets Elvis swing away and he hits a fly ball that doesn’t advance the runners? Or a fielders choice that only advances Arias and then Young grounds into a DP? Or strikes out and neither of the next two guys gets a base hit?
At that point in the game as great as multiple runs would have been you have to score at least one run in that situation. Getting a guy to 3rd with less than 2 outs AND keeping yourself from a DP possibility is the best thing to do.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
No
You don’t HAVE to do anything except maximize your chances of winning.
Bunting Elvis in that situation doesn’t do that.
by Adam J. Morris on May 20, 2010 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Not bunting Elvis gives you just as good if not better chance of not scoring there
So instead of at least being tied you are down with only two innings to go.
Score the tying run and put yourself in position to score the go ahead run as best as possible. If you blow the game open fine but if not you have at least put yourself in the best position to at the worst tie the game and likely take a one run lead late.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Except...
the WE on that play actually dropped the Rangers chances of winning the game.
by ghostofErikThompson on May 20, 2010 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions
winning is a bonus right there
you have to at least tie the game at that point
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
It wasn't the bottom of the 9th...
you don’t have to go for a tie at all costs to try to salvage the game.
by ghostofErikThompson on May 20, 2010 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions
When given a golden opportunity to score you have to come through
We were given a gold opportunity to score at least 1 run which became imperative to get. Had it just been a guy on 1st and we were playing for the tie it may be different but getting not one but two guys into scoring position with less than 2 outs and your hottest hitter(s) coming up seems ideal to me. there are so many things that could happen to decrease your WE even more if you had let Elvis swing away than bunt.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Of course...
and Elvis could also bunt right to the pitcher and he gets the guy out at third. You’re playing too much with hindsight on your side. The fact of the matter is, it hurt the chances of the Rangers winning the game, not improved it.
by ghostofErikThompson on May 20, 2010 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Its not hindsight
With those two runners on base the chances of them pulling the wheel play off and getting Arias out at 3rd are slim to none. The goal for me would be to get both those runners into scoring position for the heart of the order and since it barely affects the run expectancy of at least tying the game I do it.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Then eventually...
you lose more games than you win.
by ghostofErikThompson on May 20, 2010 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Elvis is not a hot hitter?
Why not add him to the string of hot hitters
Live in Oregon. Grew up in Arlington. Will always love the Rangers
by TheDutchOven on May 20, 2010 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Hes hot
But theres far to many opportunities for something to go wrong and not score any runs if the runners don’t move up than letting Elvis swing away and hope he gets a base hit.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
We do you keep saying that you HAVE to score a run that inning?
by Adam J. Morris on May 20, 2010 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Because you have a golden opportunity with runners on 1st and 2nd and no out
You have to at least tie it up there. if you score two or three or more its great but at least one has to score. Expecting your offense, which hadn’t produced any runs all game on anything other than home runs, to score a run against the back end of the O’s bullpen isn’t a good bet.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Golden opportunity != obligation. (sorry if posted twice)
Once again, you don’t HAVE to do anything. It’s the seventh inning and that’s late, we get that. But you don’t lose after that inning if you don’t score.
The facts have been presented to you numerically, logically, and emotionally. You don’t want to agree so you’re not agreeing. End of story.
"When I want my men to remember something important, to really make it stick, I give it to them double dirty."- General George S. Patton
by Aquaman, Esq. on May 20, 2010 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions
only if you want to tie or win...
if you can’t score with two on and 0 out, will you fare batter with 0 guys on base against a setup man or a closer?
for all practical purposes, you do HAVE to score in that situation. you are running out of time, and the pitching will (in theory) get harder.
defeatist pussy lives here
by sam in so cal on May 20, 2010 1:30 PM CDT up reply actions
x
you have to at least tie the game at that point
No, you don’t HAVE to do anything.
You’ve got two more innings left.
And for that matter, you’ve got a worn out bullpen and your closer is unavailable.
If anything, given the state of the pitching staff right now, you want to avoid extra innings if possible, making playing for the tie less appealing.
by Adam J. Morris on May 20, 2010 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions
Wash's mindset
I think you’re forgetting the most obvious category:
he really believes bunting is the right thing to do in many more situations than we do. That is the scariest possibility, to me, that he won’t ever change because he truly believes he’s doing the right thing there.
Ceterum censeo, Ron Washington esse delendam
Yep...
That’s exactly my complaint. It isn’t one game or one instance, it’s the philosophy.
by ghostofErikThompson on May 20, 2010 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions
I worry about that also
and everytime we squeeze that run across after a bunt, he thinks that is proof he was right. He said something to the effect after the 13 inning loss to Oakland of we kept tying it up but ran out of chances. Not realizing he gave away almost 2 innings worth of chances…
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
"Hello Win Column!!!"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 20, 2010 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions
and, like the idiot littering this thread with obstinacy
no evidence of any sort would ever convince him it’s wrong to bunt there. It would go against his entire experience and history with baseball, to do those “little things” at those times. His worldview is built around this kind of old school baseball. It’s part of what makes him good with players, that respect and honor in the clubhouse stuff. But it’s also the thing that makes him immutable to changes in small ball strategy.
Ceterum censeo, Ron Washington esse delendam
I could get behind this idea
And like most humans, you get the good with the bad.
"I support you, Wash; I’ve always supported you," Young said
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
That was just crazy.
How many different times and ways can we say, “WTF was Wash thinking???”
"Drinks are on me if Lewis posts >168IP and an era lower than 3.86." by RangerMad on Jan 20, 2010 12:36 PM PST
Brook Jacoby
"JD gets complete blame or credit for what happens in 2010 and I think Nolan wants it that way. JD is paid to be a real GM and needs to start performing like one." - Josey Wales
by Michael Cave on May 20, 2010 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions
In the late innings of a ballgame and down by a run, you have your leadoff hitter in the box with a man on first and second with nobody out.. what do ya do?
No matter the numbers behind Andrus’ production this year, you have Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, Vladimir Guerrero, Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz hitting behind him… yes, without hesitation, you bunt those runners over.
Andrus has really improved his hitting and his eye but he still isn’t our best hitter.
This whole discussion seems to me to be 100% meaningless. You manufacture runs when they arn’t coming in bunches and the only times Andrus is asked to lay down a sac bunt is when we are down by one or two runs and desperately need those runs to help win a ballgame.
Think of it this way, do you honestly think or expect Andrus’ BA and OBP would be higher if he hadn’t laid the 8 sacs down this year? If so, you’re a very positive creature and possibly think higher of Andrus than what he really is at this point. So.. I’ll take that wonderful BA with that wonderful OBP along with leading the league in sac bunts…
It wasn't the late innings of the ballgame
It was in the middle of the game, down 2.
If it had been in the 9th, down 1, I would not be happy, but it would be more justifiable.
by Adam J. Morris on May 20, 2010 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions
We were down one run and..
..the 7th inning is now not considered a late inning? With the way things had been going to that point, the 7th inning may have been the last shot to manufacture that game-tying run.
Fortunately..
..justification to you isn’t required for Washington, or for any of you for that matter.
How you don’t think being down by a run in the bottom of the 7th inning and our leadoff hitter bunting two men over with one out is the right move… boggles me.
Math is hard
There is a 70% that one of Andrus/Young/Kinsler gets at least a base hit. Let the man hit.
I was thinking of another game
Sorry.
Anyway, down 1 in the 7th, it doesn’t make sense to have Elvis bunt there, no.
by Adam J. Morris on May 20, 2010 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions
And by stifling your offense and not trying to
break the game wide open in the 7th, we had only a one-run lead in the 8th inning with a somewhat compromised bullpen (no Felix available I presume) which was coughed up. What’s not been discussed is how fortunate we were that Kinsler didn’t hit into a DP on that ball.
We had to go win the game again in the 9th inning when we could have put it away in the 7th inning.
A good manager knows when to get the F out of the way.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
by Josey Wales on May 20, 2010 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions
We scored two runs and took the lead, correct?
How can argue such an outcome?
It obviously was the right move because the outcome was exactly what was intended and needed. We got the game-tying run and took the lead in that same very inning.
Is this a situation where fans are screaming the “what ifs”? What if we had scored five runs instead, what if three, what if four… ah, the possibilities are endless, arn’t they?
"It obviously was the right move because the outcome was exactly what was intended and needed"
good lord….
"JD gets complete blame or credit for what happens in 2010 and I think Nolan wants it that way. JD is paid to be a real GM and needs to start performing like one." - Josey Wales
by Michael Cave on May 20, 2010 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Where we've been extremely fortunate
is that our schedule has been very soft for the most part which has enabled the team to overcome the manager’s penchant for small-ball.
Against winning teams we’re 4-12.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
by Josey Wales on May 20, 2010 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions
And our record against losing teams is 19-6, correct? This is a young team, a very young team with immense talent. You can play scapegoat with the manager whenever and wherever you’d like but remember, no other manager is going to be able to come into this town and help us beat the Yankees. The Yankees are STACKED with proven players.
The fact that we play so well against lesser teams and not as well against better teams is only a sign of maturity at this point.
I hope nobody expects a WS ring in 2010. This machine is going to take time, folks.
The decision last night goes back to an analogy used
several times with Ron Washington – He’s like a drunk driver who made it home safe last night.
So yes, if the short-term goal was to get home last night, you can rationalize that it was a good decision.
Was it a smart decision in the long-term to drive home when you’re drunk off your ass? No, it wasn’t.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
by Josey Wales on May 20, 2010 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions
Funny that you would use that analogy
when you also think that LaRussa driving drunk is no big deal
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on May 20, 2010 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions
Exactly
where do I say that “Larussa driving drunk is no big deal” ?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
by Josey Wales on May 20, 2010 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions
I didn't say you specifically said that
but the point is the way you rationalize drinking and driving is absurd
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on May 20, 2010 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions
It's an analogy, dumbass.
I’m not rationalizing or minimizing drinking & driving in any way.
It’s always a bad decision.
Should Tony Larussa have been fired? Hell no.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
you aren't rationalizing anything?
He’s like a drunk driver who made it home safe last night.
So yes, if the short-term goal was to get home last night, you can rationalize that it was a good decision.
Huh?
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on May 20, 2010 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
The concept is over your head
so crawl back under your rock.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
lol
I get what you are saying. What you don’t get is that what you are saying is stupid. Carry on.
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on May 20, 2010 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions
It's always a dumb decision to drive home
drunk.
Always.
In Wash’s feeble little mind, the decision to drive home was a good one regardless of how drunk he was simply because he made it home.
The decision was stupid and always will be.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
No.. the funny thing is this comment is completely irrelevant and explains diddly squat as to whether the move was good or bad.
No.. the funny thing is this comment is completely irrelevant and explains diddly squat as to whether the move was good or bad.Yes, the short term goal is always to get home. Name of the game.
How about a response… a belittled sigh is ten times worse than any comment you don’t agree with.
Fact is, the move worked. You can argue the possibilities for eternity of what could’ve happened IF another call was made but to argue that a move that worked was a bad move?
The move "worked" in the very short-term but
it was also a reason we had to go win the game again in the 9th inning.
It’s also not the kind of strategy that will work when you play a better team.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
by Josey Wales on May 20, 2010 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions
You act like if Elvis had swung away we would have been guaranteed to score 3+ runs that inning
Thats stupid
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on May 20, 2010 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
No
The evidence indicates that if Elvis swings away, the chance of scoring at least a run was about as good, and the chance of scoring more than one run was better.
by Adam J. Morris on May 20, 2010 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Wow..
..please explain to me how you can gather this intellect. In a game where failure is guaranteed for the young man 70% of the time, how do you come to that conclusion?
Probably because
the next 2 guys up are also guaranteed to fail 70% or more of the time so when you eliminate 1 guys opportunity to attempt to succeed, you lower your overall odds as a team off success. There is probably a math formula in there somewhere…
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
"Hello Win Column!!!"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 20, 2010 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions
Ah..
..but you see, with a runner on third and one out (after Andrus’ sac bunt) even a failed attempt from Young would’ve scored the game-tying run. That’s the entire point and reason as to why this is a good move and not a bad one.
a failed attempt would've scored the run?
So if he K’s a run scores? If he pops out to the catcher a run scores?
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on May 20, 2010 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Seriously
that is rather ignorant. What if the IF is in and he hits a 2 hopper to the SS or 2B?
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
"Hello Win Column!!!"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 20, 2010 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Would your failed attempt at posting and logic
have scored the run?
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
"Hello Win Column!!!"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 20, 2010 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions
Actually
So far this year, he’s failed 58% of the time, not 70%.
by Adam J. Morris on May 20, 2010 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions
How is failure "guaranteed" when he's getting on base 42% of the time?
How do you come to that conclusion?
"When I want my men to remember something important, to really make it stick, I give it to them double dirty."- General George S. Patton
by Aquaman, Esq. on May 20, 2010 1:35 PM CDT up reply actions
…and being 0-8 with RISP up until the 7th inning wasn’t a reason, as well?
You can skip and hop all day around the hows and whys…
So.. playing for the long ball is something that will beat the good teams? I HIGHLY beg to differ… that type of strategy helps you score runs when you otherwise might not have, how does this hurt your chances against a better opponent?
Who cares that you were 0-8 with RISP up to that point?
Do you really think that has any bearing on the likelihood of the Rangers getting a hit with RISP going forward?
by Adam J. Morris on May 20, 2010 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Of course!
Hitters don’t hit against a freakin’ ball machine at Putt-Putt, this is a live pitcher with a BRAIN they are attempting to hit. Guthrie at that point had held us down and gotten out of jams.. give the man credit for that. Now, it was a different pitcher in the ballgame in the 7th but to assume you can immediately hit with runners on when you haven’t all game would be a BAD decision by the manager, he manages these ballgames and gets the most out of what is there. The SAFEST way to play the situation and make sure you get that tying run is to sac bunt with Elvis. Pure and simple.
You guys have been watching the mashing bashing Rangers for far too long..
you are making
yourself look pretty damn stupid
x
“SirChris4, what you’ve just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.”"
"JD gets complete blame or credit for what happens in 2010 and I think Nolan wants it that way. JD is paid to be a real GM and needs to start performing like one." - Josey Wales
by Michael Cave on May 20, 2010 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
So
You think that Guthrie was inherently much more likely to keep the Rangers from getting a hit w/RISP than with no one on base.
by Adam J. Morris on May 20, 2010 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions
You can't be serious.
"When I want my men to remember something important, to really make it stick, I give it to them double dirty."- General George S. Patton
by Aquaman, Esq. on May 20, 2010 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions
Has to be a bit.
I can’t imagine how anyone might actually believe what this person is posting.
"When I want my men to remember something important, to really make it stick, I give it to them double dirty."- General George S. Patton
by Aquaman, Esq. on May 20, 2010 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Wow, I'm someone with no faith in humanity, and I fully believe that the vast majority of people are painfully stupid
and even I’m sitting here thinking, ‘this must be a bit, this must be a bit’
That is how stupid this person appears to me. My God! Stupidity on this level is inexcusable.
Here's the thing
Performance with RISP is generally going to be consistent with performance without RISP. When a team goes 1 for 14 with RISP (as the Rangers did yesterday), it isn’t because they were choking or don’t deserve to win or because the pitcher was bearing down and is great in the clutch.
It is because of normal fluctuations that occur in a small sample.
An 0 for 8 with RISP in one game is not evidence that the Rangers need to bunt because Guthrie is capable of shutting them down with RISP.
by Adam J. Morris on May 20, 2010 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions
It worked, Adam.
That means it was the right move.
"When I want my men to remember something important, to really make it stick, I give it to them double dirty."- General George S. Patton
by Aquaman, Esq. on May 20, 2010 3:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Didn't realize baseball was a zero-sum game.
Home run or bunt. Nothing in between.
Not even for the guy hitting close to .330 on the season with zero home runs.
"When I want my men to remember something important, to really make it stick, I give it to them double dirty."- General George S. Patton
by Aquaman, Esq. on May 20, 2010 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions
Clearly that means he can't be batting .330.
Therefore, he is batting zero.
Given that situation, of course you have him bunt.
QED
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on May 20, 2010 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions
Sometimes a simple sigh
is all that is needed when dealing with someone of your ilk.
I was hoping you would take a step back and realized how flawed your logic is but I guess not.
"JD gets complete blame or credit for what happens in 2010 and I think Nolan wants it that way. JD is paid to be a real GM and needs to start performing like one." - Josey Wales
by Michael Cave on May 20, 2010 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions
You see, the logic and action YOU need to work on is telling my why my logic is flawed. Sighing and hissing like a girl in pony-tails is meaningless and quite moot in regards to anything said.
When you manage to have both Adam AND Josey on your case...
you’ve done something wrong.
by cmkelly29 on May 20, 2010 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions 5 recs
Good point
this is a first. Mark this and save it in the archives…
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
"Hello Win Column!!!"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 20, 2010 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions
Well...
the bunt actually decreased the Rangers expectancy to win the baseball game (by a very small amount), so there’s some logic in thinking the bunt was a bad move.
by ghostofErikThompson on May 20, 2010 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions
The BCS
told him not to bunt…
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
"Hello Win Column!!!"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 20, 2010 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
excellent.
"Drinks are on me if Lewis posts >168IP and an era lower than 3.86." by RangerMad on Jan 20, 2010 12:36 PM PST
The point is..
.. it may be able to give you a percentage number as to our chances to win the game or whatever but nothing controls nature, nothing controls the game other than the cleats and sweat on the field of play.
The game could’ve gone against the percentage or with it, correct?
Who’s to say which way it might’ve gone if things played out differently.
All in all, the whole computer “expectancy” is moot.
"nothing controls the game other than the cleats and sweat on the field of play. "
I knew it was you, Plaschke.
Baseball
is a game played with cleats and sweat and blood and dirt and RBIs and bunts.
F math. Math never won any baseball-y game.
by Whiskey in my Whiskey on May 20, 2010 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions
I’m as big of a stat guy as anyone in here… but a .2% change after a move was made IS NOT means to justify a call.
Please
build the resume so you can apply to manage the Angels, A’s or Mariners.
That would make me happy.
by Whiskey in my Whiskey on May 20, 2010 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions
You are not as big of a stat guy as anyone in here
You are in fact, one of the furthest things from it here.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Somehow...
…that was the best comment so far.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on May 20, 2010 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Would it change everyone's answer if they knew
that Elvis intentionally bunted onto a sweaty patch of the infield? With cleatmarks on it?
lol
this is a fantastic bit you have, congrats
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on May 20, 2010 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions
You're right...
I’m sorry. Ron Washington’s heart and some infield dirt won the game.
by ghostofErikThompson on May 20, 2010 1:12 PM CDT up reply actions
grit prevails again
"Drinks are on me if Lewis posts >168IP and an era lower than 3.86." by RangerMad on Jan 20, 2010 12:36 PM PST
well thank god that's a heart that has only done coke once...
or we’d really be in trouble!
Wash for this scene your role is to act like a manager who know's what the F he is doing. I know it's a creative stretch 'cus.....he do what he do.
I don't know..
..but obviously a move that was called that helped us score two runs and take the lead in the 7th inning WASN’T a bad one.. especially seeing as we were down the majority of the game and still won.
It was a bad one, though...
Thanks for using the subject line. (Not sarcasm. It was weirding me out.)
Anyhow, it was playing against the odds of winning the game and that’s never smart unless you’re desperate. I mean, 0.02% isn’t much, but the fact is bunting there was just trying to tie the game and hope and a pray that because you’re the home team and you get the last at-bat, you win.
It worked out this time, but if you play against the odds long enough, you’re going to lose more games than you’re going to win.
Tell me though, what are your thoughts on Washington bunting Elvis in the 4th inning of games with runners on? I’m curious because that’s a part of Adam’s argument, not just last night.
by ghostofErikThompson on May 20, 2010 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions
No matter where you play.. playing to tie the game late in the game will never be a bad move, IMO. Sorry.
There is no guarantee they would’ve even tied the thing if shit went down differently.. Elvis isn’t ammune to a DP, you know. If he pops out Arias moves to third and now there’s 1st and 3rd with one out. The possibility of a DP is still there. Elvis’ bunt basically secured a tie at that point. In this sport or any other, I’ll take my chances to win the game when tied as opposed to behind.
Then this dick goes and doesn't use the subject line after a thank you.
Look, first and third with one out is the same as second and third with one out if you’re only playing for one run, which you stated you are.
Playing for the tie is a bad move if you are stopping yourself from the possibility of having a big inning. It’s a possibility they score more than one run there and they needed to play for it. This was the best time as every to go for a big inning.
By your line of thinking, anytime you are down one run, you bunt and only go for one run? That’s just silly.
"I don't really like pitchers." - Nelson Cruz
No no..
…you’re always playing for the possibility of more but AT LEAST one run is key when down by ONE late in the ballgame.
Somehow arguing 1st and 3rd with one out and 2nd and 3rd with one out is the same situation? THAT is enough to propel me out of this discussion.
Well
You guys know the numbers a lot more than me, but I would think runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out is not the same as 1st and 3rd with one out when playing for one run. Obviously 1st and 3rd puts you in danger of a DP.
If you read the entire thread
You’d know that the percentages are something like 42% for 2nd/3rd no outs and 41% for 1st/3rd/1 out.
Or at least I think that’s what I read below.
But again, you’re disregarding the possibility that Elvis doesn’t just move the runner and get out, he gets a hit and scores a run.
"When I want my men to remember something important, to really make it stick, I give it to them double dirty."- General George S. Patton
by Aquaman, Esq. on May 20, 2010 4:41 PM CDT up reply actions
It's...
a tie in hindsight. That run wasn’t a guarantee. And to secure that chance at a tie, it hurts the chances to win the game.
I think at this point we’ve covered your opinion and the opinion of those looking at the percentages and not just the sweat and gumption of the players. I’m safely assuming we’ll never come to an agreement.
by ghostofErikThompson on May 20, 2010 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions
Well..
..here ya go, what’s your ODDS say would happen with a man on 2nd and 3rd with one out as opposed to the numerous other possibilities if Elvis had swung away? This, by far, is not a tie.. you’re almost guaranteed the tie with the bunt. You do it, get the tie, then play from there but you MUST make sure you get the one run.
So ignore the fact
that your bullpen is tired. Your closer is a no go that night and the last thing you want is another extra inning game where guys have to pitch long stretches? Also, by tying the game, you send more guys out there in high leverage situations which are much more taxing than the possibility of taking a 3 or 4 run lead and letting the ass end of your bullpen kill the last 2 or so innings?
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
"Hello Win Column!!!"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 20, 2010 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions
You say they lose the ballgame...
I say they score 5 runs that inning and win the ballgame.
"I don't really like pitchers." - Nelson Cruz
Well...
unless the Rangers worked up a good sweat in the 9th, that is.
by ghostofErikThompson on May 20, 2010 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm curious
You keep saying the run is guaranteed if you sac bunt. What do you believe are the odds that a run scores with 2nd and 3rd and one out?
by Whiskey in my Whiskey on May 20, 2010 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions
Obviously 100%
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
"Hello Win Column!!!"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 20, 2010 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions
As long...
as they believed and wanted it hard enough.
by ghostofErikThompson on May 20, 2010 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions
And are gritty enough
With enough dirt on their cleats.
"When I want my men to remember something important, to really make it stick, I give it to them double dirty."- General George S. Patton
by Aquaman, Esq. on May 20, 2010 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions
You can argue that...
if it were the 9th inning and the team was desperate. It was the 7th inning. The team MUSTN’T do anything. If they didn’t score that inning, they still had outs to play with. What they did do was give the Orioles one of their outs for the CHANCE at one run. I understand your philosophy is TIE AT ALL COSTS, but that doesn’t win you the game more times than not.
by ghostofErikThompson on May 20, 2010 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions
Perfect example being
the extra inning game with the A’s where we just kept bunting men along, tieing the game until finally, we couldn’t tie it anymore and lost in 13…
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
"Hello Win Column!!!"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 20, 2010 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions
No
my theory is if you never get ahead, you can’t ever win. The thing is, when you always play for 1 run, the most you will get is usually 1 run.
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
"Hello Win Column!!!"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 20, 2010 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions
No...
my theory being the Rangers had 2 men on base and 9 outs and decided they’d rather have 2 men on base and 8 outs which means it’s less likely they win because even with 2 men on base and 8 outs, a run is not guaranteed.
by ghostofErikThompson on May 20, 2010 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions
How does Arias move to 3rd on a pop out?
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on May 20, 2010 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions
RESULTS DO NOT JUSTIFY THE MOVE
You are completely disregarding any potential result OTHER than the one that actually happened, as if it was the only possible positive outcome.
What if Elvis gets a hit? Now a run scores (tie game) and you have no outs with runners on the corners for a hot hitter (Face). Would that not have been better?
The evidence presented to you demonstrates that it was just as likely as sacrificing an out to move two guys over one base and not score anything at all. How is that not better?
"When I want my men to remember something important, to really make it stick, I give it to them double dirty."- General George S. Patton
by Aquaman, Esq. on May 20, 2010 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions
Why else..
..would a move be made is it wasn’t for a result?
There’s nothing more in the world that justifies a move than the ending result of that move.
Push a ball down a hill and the little fucker rolls down the hill, doesn’t it?
Lol..
..tell me, is it asinine or is it sometimes too much of a struggle to bite into the apple?
Come on, fact is, the move worked.. we scored two runs and got the lead.
Period. No other way around it. The ‘what if’ scenario could go on for days.
There's...
no reason to ever talk about sports ever, then.
Because what happened, happened.
by ghostofErikThompson on May 20, 2010 1:55 PM CDT up reply actions
I have a rock that keeps tigers away.
Don’t believe me?
I have a rock. There are no tigers around. My rock must be keeping those tigers away.
The results don’t lie.
"When I want my men to remember something important, to really make it stick, I give it to them double dirty."- General George S. Patton
by Aquaman, Esq. on May 20, 2010 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions
Really?
I am having trouble with tigers in the backyard. Can I borrow that rock?
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
"Hello Win Column!!!"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 20, 2010 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions
What would I do about tigers while you had my rock?
"When I want my men to remember something important, to really make it stick, I give it to them double dirty."- General George S. Patton
by Aquaman, Esq. on May 20, 2010 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions
Not sure
can you show me the rock and I can try and find one at the store?
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
"Hello Win Column!!!"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 20, 2010 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Get your own rock, dude.
Open your mind a bit.
"When I want my men to remember something important, to really make it stick, I give it to them double dirty."- General George S. Patton
by Aquaman, Esq. on May 20, 2010 1:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Would your rock
beat my paper and scissors?
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
"Hello Win Column!!!"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 20, 2010 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Who can say?
We’d have to try it out to know the odds of anything.
Your fancy theories, facts, and numbers show nothing. Past results mean nothing.
Open your mind a bit.
"When I want my men to remember something important, to really make it stick, I give it to them double dirty."- General George S. Patton
by Aquaman, Esq. on May 20, 2010 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions
If
you want it bad enough it should. And you have to wear cleats.
by Whiskey in my Whiskey on May 20, 2010 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Ill go get another rock
and open your mind with THAT rock. Then ill steal your mysterious tiger repelling rock.
"JD gets complete blame or credit for what happens in 2010 and I think Nolan wants it that way. JD is paid to be a real GM and needs to start performing like one." - Josey Wales
by Michael Cave on May 20, 2010 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions
There aren't any tiger around me because of my bad ass dog.
"I don't really like pitchers." - Nelson Cruz
As long..
..as there are no tigers around, there’s absolutely no reason to think that couldn’t be the case.
Open your mind a bit.
It has to be a bit
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on May 20, 2010 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions
There seems to be a difference in perspective....
Your perspective seems to be more faith-based, whereas the others arguing against you seem to be coming from a more skeptical-based perspective.
Now, faith can be useful and helpful in amazing ways, but the problem is that it degenerates into a he-said/she-said problem. On top of that, you have confirmation bias to contend with.
If you view things from a skeptical point of view, and you keep trying to disprove what you believe in, and yet you still can’t disprove it , then you can have more confidence that what you’re trying to disprove is more correct than other theories.
So, long story short, while faith-based analysis has its uses, if you want to get closer to the truth, it’s better to have a skeptical point of view than a faith-based one.
That's a pretty long-winded way
of saying he’s got his head up his ass.
Ceterum censeo, Ron Washington esse delendam
by t ball on May 20, 2010 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I really like your second paragraph.
Very well put. It’s an argument that’s not going to go anywhere because no one can actually support what they claim, so there’s no point in having it.
If I believe something but can’t back it up, I’ll usually just stay quiet.
I'm just trying to formulate
in my mind why the skeptical point of view approaches truth more than the faith-based point of view.
I suspect that the poster is a front for another poster, so it’s more an exercise in trying to see where it breaks down.
As you say, if there’s no way to actually get any closer to the truth than he-said/she-said, then, the whole point of discussing these things becomes pretty much pointless, and it becomes a waste of time to talk about it aside from curiosity-sake….
I find it very hard to believe this is serious now.
This is a very, VERY well-crafted (successful) attempt at trolling. It has to be. There is no other explanation at this point.
Admitted he is a troll
on HH the other day
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
"Hello Win Column!!!"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 20, 2010 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, all of his posts
are on a total of two threads. This one and the one at HH.
Ceterum censeo, Ron Washington esse delendam
I read the HH...
thread and it is why I’ve stopped responding to him.
by ghostofErikThompson on May 20, 2010 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Results and Process.
Separate them. Please. This is one of the first things you were taught in Intro to Logic.
That's saying a lot.
"When I want my men to remember something important, to really make it stick, I give it to them double dirty."- General George S. Patton
by Aquaman, Esq. on May 20, 2010 2:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Ah
you’re one of those people.
Never mind folks, nothing to see here.
by Whiskey in my Whiskey on May 20, 2010 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions
According to this...
man.
http://www.fangraphs.com/plays.aspx?date=2010-05-19&team=Rangers&dh=0&season=2010
It’s not just making things up. You can believe what you want, though.
by ghostofErikThompson on May 20, 2010 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions
This..
..is what you’ve brought me in order to defuse the discussion or enhance your view? A computer model which shows a VERY small change in chances to winning the game after Elvis’ sac bunt? Really??
So.. helping us score a run actually decreased the possibilities of us winning this game? Am I reading this right?
Old enough and young enough to know. I understand stats and I understand the salt that must be taken with them as well.
One thing to point out...
That probability model depends upon an average batter batting.
Elvis, up to this point, has been above average.
As a result, this is understating the level of stupidity involved in that decision.
Agree
as said above. If Borbon is up right now, bunt away.
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
"Hello Win Column!!!"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 20, 2010 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions
You don't understand stats, though.
And, yes, I realize I’m probably being trolled by continuing to respond to this dude.
The bunt...
DID NOT HELP.
Is the issue that you just don’t understand odds and percentages?
by ghostofErikThompson on May 20, 2010 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions
The bunt..
ABSOLUTELY helped.
I’m not looking at a .02% computer model telling me what’s good and what’s bad.. as much as stats play into this game, that’s WAY to small to even acknowledge.
Point is, and I’ll explain it again, with Elvis bunting he secured the tie WITH possibility of more.
Without the bunt, the ODDS are left wide open as to whether or not we’d even tie the fucking ballgame much less taking the fuckin’ lead.
Ya get this or not?
How did he secure the tie?
He didn’t score any runs. He actually made it less likely that we score multiple runs (and win the game).
So how did he secure the tie?
"When I want my men to remember something important, to really make it stick, I give it to them double dirty."- General George S. Patton
by Aquaman, Esq. on May 20, 2010 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions
Because..
..he made it more likely that we score at least one and tie the game.
As the ghost would say, now we have 7 outs to play with and the game is now tied. This is a much better scenario than 9 outs and down by one.
But the game wasn't tied.
We were still down one.
You are assuming what you’re trying to prove.
"When I want my men to remember something important, to really make it stick, I give it to them double dirty."- General George S. Patton
by Aquaman, Esq. on May 20, 2010 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Hmmm...
…you must be light years ahead of me in the intelligence dept as I have not a fucking clue as to what you just said.
werent you the guy
that was trolling all over HH the other day?
"JD gets complete blame or credit for what happens in 2010 and I think Nolan wants it that way. JD is paid to be a real GM and needs to start performing like one." - Josey Wales
by Michael Cave on May 20, 2010 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions
Yes
just looking at that. Openly admitted he was just trying to piss them off.
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
"Hello Win Column!!!"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 20, 2010 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions
yeah i mean i dont like the angels fans
but i also dont go over there and act like a complete and total jackass
"JD gets complete blame or credit for what happens in 2010 and I think Nolan wants it that way. JD is paid to be a real GM and needs to start performing like one." - Josey Wales
by Michael Cave on May 20, 2010 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions
You're looking at this...
through hindsight, dude. It put the Rangers in a position to tie, but it didn’t secure anything, and it hurt the chances of winning the game because it took the bat out of the hands of someone that gets on base over 40% of the time and gifted the opposition an out.
I’m not going to repeat this again in like the twelfth subthread. Your opinion is that odds are worthless because baseball is about wanting it more or something, my opinion is that doing something that hurts your chances of winning a game is not the best way to expect a win.
The Rangers won the game, and as Rangers fans, we can high five on that one, but it was a bad call and future attempts to make that call will end with the Rangers losing more times than not if given the opportunity.
by ghostofErikThompson on May 20, 2010 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions
Down a run in the 7th and manufacturing a ‘for sure’ run to tie the game will not lead to us losing more than winning.. that is shocking that an intelligent fan of this game would actually believe that.
"'For sure' run"
Prove that.
"When I want my men to remember something important, to really make it stick, I give it to them double dirty."- General George S. Patton
by Aquaman, Esq. on May 20, 2010 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions
2nd and 3rd with one out and your best hitter at the plate.. you know damn well it’s not 100% but the chances of you scoring that run are MUCH higher than the alternative situation. It would take a feat not to score that run.
MY
is not the team’s best hitter
"JD gets complete blame or credit for what happens in 2010 and I think Nolan wants it that way. JD is paid to be a real GM and needs to start performing like one." - Josey Wales
by Michael Cave on May 20, 2010 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions
"the chances of you scoring that run are MUCH higher than the alternative situation."
You’re assuming a few things here:
1) Elvis wouldn’t get a hit and score a run anyway.
2) Face is our best hitter.
3) Face will get a hit, when he’s failed about 65% of the time this season to get on base.
4) That Elvis succeeded. Wash made the call before Elvis bunted, you have to use the information he had available at the time.
"When I want my men to remember something important, to really make it stick, I give it to them double dirty."- General George S. Patton
by Aquaman, Esq. on May 20, 2010 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions
But you see..
..in that situation even our best hitter (whether he is or not) doesn’t have to get a hit in order to actually get that run home. He can groundout and get him home, pop-out.. basically anything but strikeout.
You do realize
that the very situation you describe happened earlier in the same game and the Rangers didn’t score? Right? Remember the 3rd inning?
What's...
shocking here is that you believe that.
by ghostofErikThompson on May 20, 2010 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Fuck it then..
..we don’t need to score runs to win ballgames.. we’ll do this shit by the magic of God and will it.
Because that's what he said, amirite?
"When I want my men to remember something important, to really make it stick, I give it to them double dirty."- General George S. Patton
by Aquaman, Esq. on May 20, 2010 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions
While...
letting Elvis hit would be magical, if anything, magic, sweat, and dirt has been the basis of your argument.
Stick with your points, man.
by ghostofErikThompson on May 20, 2010 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions
Lol..
..it was a facetious comment, surely not a backing statement.
Yeah… and this is where this ends.
You know as well as I do that “magic, sweat and dirt” isn’t the basis for my arguement.
Eventually you get to a point.. as meaningless as this whole conversation is, this is that point.
Speaking of magic and trolls
I found SirChris…
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
"Hello Win Column!!!"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 20, 2010 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Its not just some random ass computer model
Its looking at every single baseball play in history and looking at the outcomes of each one of those plays to determine if what just happened in the game will lead to a win or a loss.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
That...
doesn’t measure sweat, dude.
by ghostofErikThompson on May 20, 2010 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions
What's cool about sweat
You can sweat just as much doing something wrong as doing it right.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on May 20, 2010 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Wow..
..can’t say I’ve ever seen the same exact game played twice. Computers got something on me and now you stat worshipers do, as well.
Grain of salt.
You're right
in 100+ years worth of baseball plays out there, there has never been a situation where a player bunted in the 7th inning with a guy on 1st and 2nd
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Hmmm..
…find me the percentage on this exact situation and we’ll have something to talk about. Otherwise, it’s a bland computer model jerking his shit to the what ifs. A .02% change is basically a 50/50 shot.. even by the computer’s standard.
You've been given the percentages
You just wrote it off as a bland computer model jerking off. The team lost .02 points by bunting, that much is true and that is basically neutral. What that doesn’t include though is the increasing chance of winning if Elvis, the guy with a .300+ BA and a .400+ OBP, isn’t forced to bunt there and then you have Young, the guy hitting .380 with a .464 OBP in May, coming up behind him with possibly no outs.
And of course, as has been mentioned many times before, the Win Expectancy doesn’t account for how great of a hitter Elvis has been this year since it is essentially looking at the average hitter.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
The problem is...
…you have to assume, under your theory, that all of Wash’s moves last night worked and none of the O’s’ manager’s moves worked.
by Adam J. Morris on May 20, 2010 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions
No, not at all but in this ONE case then yes, it obviously worked. Not because we won the game but because we scored two runs in that inning and took the lead.
It's the logical extent of your argument.
Winners are geniuses and losers are idiots.
Let’s say that everything goes exactly the same way in the game tonight, except in the seventh inning tonight, Elvis pops up the bunt. Now there is one out and Face comes up with runners at first and second.
We lose the game because we don’t score in either of the following two innings. Now, by your own reasoning, the move was wrong because of a chance occurrence, where it was right the night before.
"When I want my men to remember something important, to really make it stick, I give it to them double dirty."- General George S. Patton
by Aquaman, Esq. on May 20, 2010 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions
It's often said that one of the clearest signs of a troll is not staying consistent with his own arguments.
So, considering how much time we’ve spent on this guy. . .
by philkid3 on May 20, 2010 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
No kidding.
The ends do not in any way justify the means. Because Wash got lucky and things worked out, that does not mean he was right in making the decision.
"When I want my men to remember something important, to really make it stick, I give it to them double dirty."- General George S. Patton
by Aquaman, Esq. on May 20, 2010 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions
Yet how many times have you fans clamored over how lucky Washington gets? Eventually, it gets to a point where you mustn’t perceive it as luck anymore.
So you're saying he's lucky by nature?
Because that’s retarded.
"When I want my men to remember something important, to really make it stick, I give it to them double dirty."- General George S. Patton
by Aquaman, Esq. on May 20, 2010 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions
Gotta be a bit, right?
I mean, it’s like he’s purposefully pushing the StupidComment button.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on May 20, 2010 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions
Has long since come and gone, my friend.
This guy is off his rocker.
"When I want my men to remember something important, to really make it stick, I give it to them double dirty."- General George S. Patton
by Aquaman, Esq. on May 20, 2010 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions
Manufacture runs when they are not coming in bunches????????????????????????????
Did you ever think to consider the reason runs aren’t coming in bunches is because you are giving away outs by doing stupid things like sac bunt with one of your best hitters?????
by Whiskey in my Whiskey on May 20, 2010 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions
I have
no idea what that means.
by Whiskey in my Whiskey on May 20, 2010 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Another thing to consider about this rant from AJM...
is it isn’t just this game. It’s a culmination of all of the sacrifice attempts that Washington has foolishly called with Elvis up. Some as early as the 4th inning.
The people that defend Washington always try to paint the dissenters as being in histrionics over a one play event in one game. However, to me, when I complain about Washington, it’s because of things I see him do over and over and I know he will do again.
by ghostofErikThompson on May 20, 2010 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions
I've actually been wondering.
I’ve never heard Wash or Tag or any MSM person criticize bunt attempts. They never point out “that was a bad time to bunt.” Do they literally think the bunt is never a bad call? I don’t get it.
TAG might think it but not say it on the air
I think he’s quite aware of when it’s savvy to give away an out, and when it isn’t.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on May 20, 2010 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions
Josh likes to ask TAG about bunts situations
and TAG will give his opinion. Sometimes he agrees with the bunt, other times he states his reasoning for not bunting.
Thank you Houston for drafting Jason Castro.
At the end of the day
they still work for the team. Don’t forget Steve Stone being run out of Chicago for criticizing Cubs managment on air…
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
"Hello Win Column!!!"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 20, 2010 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions
Which reminds me
Busby is the only guy of the 3 who will truly tell it like it is constantly. Can’t remember who the hitter was, but he took a Rangers’ pitcher to task the other day for walking someone who couldn’t hit his way out of a wet paper sack…
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
"Hello Win Column!!!"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 20, 2010 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions
I think most agree....
If we are playing for 1 run late in the game I am fine with it
If its early or in the middle of the game…regardless of the score it is not a good idea.
by death of the cool on May 20, 2010 12:16 PM CDT reply actions
Hoiy fuck are people dumb
@JeffWilson_FWST Rangers shut out of top 50 list http://bit.ly/c4sUMd
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
Holy*
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on May 20, 2010 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Incentive time
Or tine. There are eleven on that list that don’t trump Cruz, Elvis, Kinsler, or even Josh or MY. But not wearing NYY or Philly pinstripes would appear to subtract about 15% from any objective rating.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on May 20, 2010 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions
#10 Ryan Howard
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on May 20, 2010 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions
I guess most of our best players don't have enough of a track record yet
But I would put Cruz and Andrus in there over Pena, Helton, and Derrek Lee at the very least.
Yeah,
lists like that are going to favor players whose best days are behind them, not ahead of them. Realistically Vlad or MY are about the only players who had any chance to make that list.
"No, I'm not a pessimist. At some point the world shits on everybody. Pretending it ain't shit makes you an idiot, not an optimist."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
I forgot about Vlad
and now that I think about it, am shocked that he’s not on that list.
Yeah. I'd have
expected to see him about as much as anyone.
"No, I'm not a pessimist. At some point the world shits on everybody. Pretending it ain't shit makes you an idiot, not an optimist."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
I actually
think Kinsler is the most deserving to be on that list. Elvis still has a lot to prove.
"No nuts, no glory"
Look at the panel.
I’m surprised they didn’t create a special ranking just for him.
by LiamP on May 20, 2010 1:09 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I'm sure it's been mentioned before
but even with Elvis hitting .321 with a .421 OBP, I’m scared as hell of the double play with 2 on and none out. Then we have a runner stranded at 3rd if Young can’t put the ball on the ground or out of the park. Should I be worried about that? No. But it seemed to happen to us too much in those situations the past few years; and if we didn’t have a guy step up and hit a 2 run HR, we’d strand the runners. This year is different – we ARE producing runs. Is it always happening the right way? No. Could Ron mix in some small ball and some “let the guys swing away” philosophy? Yeah – he could do better in those regards.
I agree with putting the bat in Elvis’ hands with 2 on and none out. At the same time, a single scores one in that situation. A single with 2 on and 1 out scores 2. And when Mike Young, Kinsler, Vlad, Josh and Cruz follow up Elvis, I’d like to think there’s a good chance of a base knock. With that said, Elvis gets on, and we’ve got the bases juiced or 2 on and 1 already scored for that part of the lineup.
I’d let Elvis swing away, and force Borbon to bunt.
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on May 20, 2010 12:47 PM CDT reply actions
So Adam
no comment about GoET breaking LSB last night?
Did he get locked in the basement or something?
I'm here...
I kept Adam abreast of the situation via email.
by ghostofErikThompson on May 20, 2010 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions
I have one...
I almost never log in, though.
by ghostofErikThompson on May 20, 2010 1:12 PM CDT up reply actions
As I said last night Bunting is the new rape of the Rangers
"Josey drives to games??? I always assumed he rides in on his high horse" jam0152
"dirkatron has his own evaluation metric: rapes above replacement." AJM
did see it above
How many times has Elvis failed to get a sac bunt down? If the number is 2, then Wash is essentially taking 3 base hits and a BB from Elvis. A hit that might score a run and/or advance a runner to 3B. Even some of those outs may also advance the runners.
Thank you Houston for drafting Jason Castro.
So, the manager isn't a genius.
I’d rather nitpik on the issue of Treanor starting more often than Max.
Andrus setting a record for SF bunts isn’t going to derail the season, even if it is a poor play on the odds.
Pro baseball has always been a dream, so this is pretty freakin’ cool out here. -- Tim Steggall, undrafted Rangers minor leaguer.
yes I would like to know why Matt effin Treanor is playing over Max???
We seem to have had a problem with a Matt in the past.
Wash for this scene your role is to act like a manager who know's what the F he is doing. I know it's a creative stretch 'cus.....he do what he do.
Justin Smoak live chat in just over 20 minutes....
http://texas.rangers.mlb.com/fan_forum/chat.jsp?c_id=tex
Wash for this scene your role is to act like a manager who know's what the F he is doing. I know it's a creative stretch 'cus.....he do what he do.
would
bunting in the same situation in the 7th against the Yanks be a wise move? with rivera looming in the 9th. in a playoff game?
I don't think
JD would allow this to continue happening if it was such an enormous deal.
Smoak bombs and Cruz missiles, that's how we roll.
See use of The Sosa 2007
That was an enormous deal and JD was so appalled that he gave Washington an extension.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
No, Nolan gave him an extension
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
Don Wakamatsu read your post AJM
He decided to one-up you.
Bottom 3rd-
Josh Bard – Walk
Josh Wilson – Single, Bard to 2nd
Ichiri – Sac Bunt, Bard to 3rd and Wilson to 2nd
Figgins – Sac Bunt, Bard Scores and Wilson to 3rd
Gutierrez – Grounds Out to 2nd
Didn't look like it to me.
And the announcers said they were trying to manufacture runs by playing some small ball.
The Figgins bunt
Wouldn’t that technically be a squeeze? We know Wak is a favorite of that one already.
"When I want my men to remember something important, to really make it stick, I give it to them double dirty."- General George S. Patton
by Aquaman, Esq. on May 20, 2010 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions
True
"When I want my men to remember something important, to really make it stick, I give it to them double dirty."- General George S. Patton
by Aquaman, Esq. on May 20, 2010 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions
Holy crap, what a trainwreck of a thread.
AJM, GoET, and everyone else, please refund me my ten minutes of reading it. K thanks.
"Don’t want to spend my night waiting in line unless it’s for more beer."
--EssBee, on LoneStarBall, Jan. 21, 2010
You're not considering why he's got so many bunts though
Here are your reasons:
1. He’s lightning fast, so he can turn bunts into hits or throwing errors
2. He’s probably the most talented bunter on the team
3. He’s followed by a slew of talented hitters
4. He’s often bunting with lightning-fast Borbon on base
I understand the frustration that arguably the best hitter on our team is bunting so much, but it’s not like we’re seeing Kinsler or Vladdy or Hambone bunt Michael Young to second. That sort of thing is extremely frustrating.
by JoeyJoeJoeJr.Shabadoo on May 20, 2010 3:36 PM CDT reply actions
A few responses to your points.
1. He is lightning fast, so he can turn outs into hits and hits into better hits, as well.
2. He is statistically the best hitter on this team with RISP this year.
3. He is a talent hitter in his own right, making whatever follows him largely irrelevant.
4. This is false.
"When I want my men to remember something important, to really make it stick, I give it to them double dirty."- General George S. Patton
by Aquaman, Esq. on May 20, 2010 3:40 PM CDT up reply actions
I understand that Borbon is rarely, rarely, rarely on base
But when Andrus is bunting, he’s usually going to be bunting the 9th-place hitter over, since that is the person who immediately precedes him in the lineup. It is not always the case, but when it is someone fast (borbon or a pinch runner), it takes away some of the sting of seeing Elvis bunt.
by JoeyJoeJoeJr.Shabadoo on May 20, 2010 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions
And of course his amazing RISP is incredible,
but still below .500, meaning that more often than not, he won’t get a hit with RISP. In most cases, I want him swinging away, but if we’re talking two-on, no outs, very close game in the eighth or ninth, I want to see him go with the sure thing and move the runners.
by JoeyJoeJoeJr.Shabadoo on May 20, 2010 3:47 PM CDT reply actions
The problem is that it is much less than sure.
He can bunt foul, pop out, or do any number of poor things that won’t move the batters over.
The numbers have been posted time and again in this thread. Bunting in that situation (which was the seventh, not the eighth or ninth as you posit) hurts the ability of the team to score runs.
"When I want my men to remember something important, to really make it stick, I give it to them double dirty."- General George S. Patton
by Aquaman, Esq. on May 20, 2010 3:49 PM CDT up reply actions
This is true..because the actual execution is not a slam-dunk.
We saw Treanor boff up a sac bunt the other night and a runner was thrown out at 3rd.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
This reminds me
of a debate that we or others may have had before….
I haven’t read or bought The Book, but Tom Tango or MGL wrote a chapter on the Sacrifice Bunt called:
To Sacrifice or Not.
I’m pretty confident that they go into the details of when attempting a sacrifice bunt makes sense in the context of winning a game and when it doesn’t.
Here’s the first couple paragraphs of the chapter:
http://www.insidethebook.com/c09.shtml
Bunts are ok
…..late in games. Elvis was up in the early innings in that situation and is hitting great. Ron Washington is all about rolling the dice but he is the biggest damn rally killer the rangers face.
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