25-19

don’t disagree. It’s just the irony(I hate to use that word on LSB) of it.

and neither lead me to believe Smoak should currently be on a MLB roster.

When dealing with knowledgeable fans.

When it’s not knowledgeable fans, I stick with an exasperated sigh or an angry rant.

we’re talking!

but small sample size doesn’t mean that there are more fluctuations (well, at very low sizes it does, because there isn’t enough numerical resolution, but say n>20). Small sample size means that sources of noise that are not related to the underlying skill being measured dominate the readout. One expects these sources of noise to eventually cancel out, since they are independent of the skill being measured. But at small sample sizes, you often haven’t had enough data to see that happen.

In theory, you could have small sample sizes and no noise, so your measurement will be as precise as the granularity of the data (5% for 20 data points, 1% for 100 data points).

So in a sense, “luck” is close to the correct statistical terminology.

You’re thinking a .750 winning percentage.

It could also just be that he’s in a slump because slumps happen. SSS fluctuations and all.

Anyway, average this year is .326 (but you’d expect a little higher in TBiA). It was .329 last year and .328 the year before.

Just that there are much better ways of measuring offensive effectiveness.

Lots of good players have good batting averages. That’s what you call an tangential relationship, it doesn’t make it a better evaluative tool for offense than OBP and SLG, and that’s just keeping it simple.

You don’t determine how good an offensive stat is based on how many good players had a good rate in it. That’s the very definition of backwards thinking.

postgame threads are not exactly times when we all put our rational thinking caps on.

What do you think, in terms of wins, most here think the true talent level of the team is?

the love affair that a lot of writers in Dallas have with him. When he has his hot streaks, those writers will hyperventilate with praise, and when he fouls up, you won’t here a single negative word in the press.

…about criticism of Rusty Greer when he’d done nothing but rehab and collect paychecks for two seasons.

Unless the team has been in the World Series by 12/11, there’s going to be a firestorm if you pay some other team to take Michael Young.

And there would probably be a firestorm even if you have had a WS appearance.

and I’ve been very loudly criticized for it. But even I would NEVER take Max out of a close game in that situation. I want his bat in the lineup right there. AND, if Treanor had started tonight I would have been pinch hitting Max for him there, too. With every passing day my willingness to go with Treanor’s supposed defense advantage wanes. Right now I’d be starting Max 3 days a week minimum and hitting for Treanor at every opportunity.

I’d also be on the phones constantly and watching Salty (and his head dr.) like a hawk.

I think the difference between Max’s D and Treanor’s D is less then the difference on thier offense.

but I’m also willing to give Max more starts, because the downside of not starting Treanor seems pretty small. Might as well use this time to see what you have with Max, because you know what you have with Treanor.

Because I don’t think Treanor’s D is all that either.

when you say “defense,” are you including his game calling and ability to handle a pitching staff vs. Max’s?

In fact, I know it’s not. I definitely think there’s at the very least a possibility it does. I don’t think it does, but I can’t speak with any defensible confidence on that.

And I’m pretty sure I’m not alone. You’re just the most vocal about it (and maybe someone else should back you up, but it’s hard to defend).

is like letting the pitcher bat and then relieving him to lead off the next inning in an NL game.

sounds about right. And its probably enough to win the division. I just hope the Angels can bury themselves early.