Does High K% and High HR% mean High BABIP?

by Requiem on Jun 2, 2010 2:45 AM CDT

This post and analysis was prompted by a comment that bigsteve had posted in the Tuesday morning thread:

Guys who K alot and hit alot of HRs will generally have a high BABIP

This was with regard to the merits of whether Chris Davis could sustain a high BABIP.

Now, when I first heard this, I was scratching my head a little, because it didn't make much intuitive sense to me. So, I decided to dig a little further....

I decided that best way to see if Davis was likely to sustain a high BABIP is to see if there was any correlation between High SO% and High HR% guys and BABIP.

IMO, the simplest way to test this would be to divide people into above average(aa)/below average (ba) SO% and aa/ba HR%. Then to take the average BABIP of the aa SO%/aa HR% guys and see if it was higher than the average BABIP of ALL the hitters.

I took all the players who qualified for the BA title last year (2009), and took the average of certain of their stats. I calculated the SO% for PA and HR% for PA since fangraphs didn't have those readily available. Also, their K% and BB% seem to be off when calculating based on PA, so I'm assuming they're basing it on AB (which seems somewhat illogical).

There are some issues with taking the average of average-type stats, but for the most part, you'll generally get a pretty good estimate of the "true" average, especially if the weight for each average is about the same (which for BA eligible players, it is).

I also decided to take a look at High K/High HR/Low BB since Davis falls into this category, and High K/Low HR because it was easy to parse that data.

Anyways, here's the information for each type that we would be interested in:

Stat	Sample Size	SO%	HR%	BABIP	K%	BB%
BA Elig	154	16.158%	3.154%	0.31176	18.36%	9.46%
High K/High HR	51	21.082%	4.724%	0.30765	24.261%	11.100%
High K/Low HR	16	20.388%	2.004%	0.32550	23.019%	9.100%
High K/High HR/Low BB	16	19.651%	4.231%	0.31063	21.756%	7.694%

So, this shows that High K/High HR guys actually tend to have LOWER BABIPs than normal. And if you only looked at the low BB guys, it would still be slightly lower (though probably not significantly). That sort of makes sense because High K/High HR guys tend to be mashers who don't usually have the speed to beat out grounders which can raise BABIP a little and they tend to have uppercut swings rather than line-drive swings which also might lower BABIP.

Some examples of the High K/High HR guys:

Mark Reynolds
Jack Cust
Russell Branyan
Carlos Pena
Brandon Inge
Adam Dunn
Ryan Howard
Jason Bay
Mike Cameron
Brad Hawpe
Justin Upton
Jayson Werth
Nelson Cruz

OTOH, High K/Low HR guys tend to do MUCH better in BABIP, and that also seems to make an intuitive sense because if they K a lot and don't HR a lot, they have to bring SOMETHING else to the hitting table, and that something is likely hitting line drives and being fast.

Examples of High K/Low HR guys

B.J. Upton
Aaron Rowand
David Wright
Dexter Fowler
Shin-Soo Choo
Chase Headley
Mark Teahen
Jhonny Peralta
Michael Bourn
Franklin Gutierrez
Emilio Bonifacio

So, this information, along with analysis of Davis's swing and his performance these past 2 seasons, still makes me bearish on Davis's ability to contribute in the long run if he doesn't improve his plate discipline....

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Comments

I can't believe

you did all that work to show that a Big Steve statement was completely without merit. Usually you can just look at the BigSteve tag, and know that.

"No, I'm not a pessimist. At some point the world shits on everybody. Pretending it ain't shit makes you an idiot, not an optimist."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays

by DJCahill on Jun 2, 2010 8:03 AM CDT reply actions 8 recs

Yep

"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan

by Dirk Diggler on Jun 2, 2010 8:15 AM CDT up reply actions

LOL

You know, I was going to post the very same thing when I saw this, but I didn’t really want to be the one to say it….

"I think it's funny because everybody wants Ozzie Smith range," Young said. "I want people to show me a guy that has turbo range like that."

by LSJ on Jun 2, 2010 8:31 AM CDT up reply actions

He's so dumb I'm starting to think maybe he's dead. Cause no way an actual alive person could be that fucking stupid.

The 40 trumps all!
Don’t throw a party for vengeance. It will turn on you. Like your wife, after your kid has fallen into a quarry.

by thedirkatron on Jun 2, 2010 9:07 AM CDT up reply actions

That sir

Is an insult to Liches everywhere.

"I think it's funny because everybody wants Ozzie Smith range," Young said. "I want people to show me a guy that has turbo range like that."

by LSJ on Jun 2, 2010 9:13 AM CDT up reply actions

Well

I actually became somewhat curious as to whether there was any correlation between K rate/HR rate and BABIP. And I did see one for high K rate/low HR rate (though that’s just likely to be survivor bias).

And just because bigsteve says it, doesn’t mean it’s wrong. I’ve just learned to pick and choose whether I find something he says interesting to explore.

I’m very rarely convinced by his logic, but I figured that if I was curious about something which he brought up, I might as well do the work and share it with others.

I’ve also found it’s rather pointless to try and argue with bigsteve. If people are more interested in being right than the truth, what’s the point in arguing with them?

So, long story short, I was curious enough about something to research and decided to share.

The point isn’t to prove someone who refuses to be wrong, wrong. The point is to see what truths we can see come out of it.

by Requiem on Jun 2, 2010 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions

Yeah, I find it more amusing

just to insult him. It’s equally productive but much more amusing.

Big Steve’s logic tends to work like this.

"No, I'm not a pessimist. At some point the world shits on everybody. Pretending it ain't shit makes you an idiot, not an optimist."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays

by DJCahill on Jun 2, 2010 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions

Dexter Fowler for Chris Davis

Do the Rockies hang up on you?

by octoberty on Jun 2, 2010 8:30 AM CDT reply actions

Looks like another RW toy.

Thank you Houston for drafting Jason Castro.

by RangerMad on Jun 2, 2010 8:37 AM CDT up reply actions

No, they call over their buddies.

“Guys, Guys! You gotta hear this shit!!!”

The 40 trumps all!
Don’t throw a party for vengeance. It will turn on you. Like your wife, after your kid has fallen into a quarry.

by thedirkatron on Jun 2, 2010 9:06 AM CDT up reply actions

Heh.

I want him, though.

by octoberty on Jun 2, 2010 9:23 AM CDT up reply actions

Even if that were a fair trade

The Rockies don’t have anywhere to play Davis.

by nivarsity on Jun 2, 2010 9:28 AM CDT up reply actions

Helton may not make it through his final year.

Of course they’d probably have to eat at least 12 million in the offseason to trade him to an AL team.

by octoberty on Jun 2, 2010 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions

Nice research

My comment was made simply based on the fact that if you take out HRs and Ks (which aren’t balls in play) the gap between BABIP and BA would be pretty significant for a guy like Davis especially (low – average average)

Could he sustain it….I don’t know. This year his power dropped and thus his BABIP dropped to .290. I think he could easily sustain a .315-.325 BABIP throughout his career.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Jun 2, 2010 10:11 AM CDT reply actions

BABIP is controllable by the batter.

But I don’t think it would be related to Ks.

It might be somewhat correllated to HRs since if you have a high HR/FB rate, it suggests you’re hitting the ball pretty damn hard.

On that same note, that correlation probably isn’t very strong so it simply makes more sense to look at LD rate, GB rate, and FB/IFFB rates instead.

by Trickman on Jun 2, 2010 11:18 AM CDT up reply actions

Well

Ks are outs that don’t put the ball in play which would inflate the average of balls put in play wouldn’t it?

You have two guys both with .270 AVG, 25 HR, and 300 PAs. One guys Ks 90 times the other guy Ks 45 times. Thats 45 more balls put in play and turned into outs which would drop BABIP.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Jun 2, 2010 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions

BigSteve Logic (TM)

"No, I'm not a pessimist. At some point the world shits on everybody. Pretending it ain't shit makes you an idiot, not an optimist."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays

by DJCahill on Jun 2, 2010 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions

Am I wrong?

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Jun 2, 2010 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions

Yes, you dumbass

You are completely backwards with the way you are looking at it you fucktard.

Your assumption where you have two guys with same average, HR and PAs is just fucking retarded.

The more likely assumption is two guys have the same HR and PAs, and same BABIP. Give them different Ks, and then calculate what their different batting averages are going to be you fucking twit.

Your stupidity is unbounded.

"No, I'm not a pessimist. At some point the world shits on everybody. Pretending it ain't shit makes you an idiot, not an optimist."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays

by DJCahill on Jun 2, 2010 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs

How is it backwards?

Seriously.

In my scenario you got both guys with 300 PA (im just assuming no walks to make it easier), 25 HR, and a .270 BA. Thats 81 hits in 300 PA for that average. One guy K’d 90 times the other 45 times. By my calculations the guy who K’d 90 times would have a .438 BABIP while the guy who K’d 45 times would have a .352 BABIP.

81/(300-25-90) = .438

81/(300-25-45) = .352

Instead of trying to insult me, which you did a piss-poor job of by the way, why don’t you explain how I am wrong and why I should assume both guys have the same BABIP instead of the same BA.

I think Chris Davis could becomes a solid .260 BA, 30 HR guy. If he continues to K alot I would expect his BABIP to stay above average. If he drops his Ks, then I would expect his BABIP to drop to a more normal level since I don’t believe he will ever be a high average type guy

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Jun 2, 2010 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions

Because you anencephalic twit

Assuming BA is constant and BABIP varies is retarded.

There is data to suggest BABIP is fairly constant. There is none to suggest BA is. The guy with the higher Ks is likely to have the same BABIP as the guy with lower Ks, but a much lower Batting average.

How you don’’t forget to breathe and simply die is quite beyond me. There are amoebas with no brain power. Your assumption is pointless, so your conclusions derived from your assumptions are equally invalid.

That is why I was amazed Requiem took the time to get data to debunk one of your statements. The fact that you made it is probably enough to debunk it, because your math and logic are both atrocious.

"No, I'm not a pessimist. At some point the world shits on everybody. Pretending it ain't shit makes you an idiot, not an optimist."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays

by DJCahill on Jun 2, 2010 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions 4 recs

where are the HR in your calculations?

You don’t factor in the HR into your calculations. You have to since hits that are HR are not used in factoring BABIP.

Use them and you’ll see that the higher HR hitter with the higher SO totals but the same BA has a lower BABIP. He has to, and that’s the error in your calculation.

by elvis1isking on Jun 10, 2010 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions

wait a minute

I just reread your post…

You can’t have two players both have 81 hits if their BA is .270 but one has 45 SO and the other has 90.

So not only did you not use HR in the numerator (as a subtraction), but you don’t even have the correct number for hits.

Yeah, a few things wrong with your calculations there.

by elvis1isking on Jun 10, 2010 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions

BigSteveMath™

"I think it's funny because everybody wants Ozzie Smith range," Young said. "I want people to show me a guy that has turbo range like that."

by LSJ on Jun 14, 2010 9:07 AM CDT up reply actions

Here's the thing (which you probably know) - BABIP excludes HRs

Although I’m guessing you were looking to see whether there was a correlation to the type of player that hits HRs since it’s not an aspect of BABiP.

"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.

Then he grounded out weakly to second.

by WyoRanger on Jun 2, 2010 10:14 AM CDT reply actions

Actually, it seems to me

that if a high K, power hitter has a very high BaBIP it should be a flag to be pretty skeptical that it will continue at higher levels. BaBIP has only minimal usefulness at lower minor league levels anyway. The K and BB rates are probably more reliable indicators of talent. And every minor league, even at the same level, has a different run environment, which will affect the relative value of ever offensive stat.

Ceterum censeo, Ron Washington esse delendam

by t ball on Jun 2, 2010 1:54 PM CDT reply actions