Poll on Lee trade
by rooster on Jul 9, 2010 12:39 PM CDT
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PrintI'm posting a stupid fanpost. It should be a fanshot, but I'm really interested to see everyone's opinion and I think there are quite a few who would not see a poll posted as a fanshot. So, the question is simple. Do you support or not support JDs decision to NOT beat the Yankees offer of Montero and Adams?
Feel free to comment on what you think beats the Yankee's offer. And, it's interesting to me that it has come down to Smoak and that there are a number of columnists and at least one blogger in Jamey that would be willing to seriously consider trading Smoak to get Lee.
My opinion is that they shouldn't trade anyone who is helping them this year or next. Perez is fair game from my perspective, so is Chris Davis, but not Scheppers or Smoak, who will both contribute this year and for which there are reasonable expectations they will contribute more next year.
I'm comfortable with JD saying no, if indeed he did say no, to moving Smoak, and letting Lee go to the Yankees for Montero. I'm surprised it took Montero, but I think the reason it did might come out later, and I think the reason is that the Yankees are blocking the Rays. I'm a little surprised we didn't hear any Red Sox rumors. I'm certainly willing to bet that we find out later that the Rays were quietly pushing the market on Lee and the Yankees did what they had to do to keep the Rays out of it.
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No way in hell do I want the Rangers outbidding
Montero+.
Freude schöner Götterfunken, Tochter aus Elysium, Freude!
I hit the wrong damn button, No way i want them to trade Smoak for a 3 month rental, let Lee
go the Yanks if he is going to cost that much, at least he will be out of the AL west, and as long as the Angels do not get him i am ok
Which dumb fuck voted yes?
Sorry, I'm really fucking stupid and should be ridiculed and mocked for said stupidity.
Also please don't trade for Cliff Lee because I want to have a farm system for the next 6 years.
Shit...there are 16
This board has fucking lost it over Cliff Lee
Sorry, I'm really fucking stupid and should be ridiculed and mocked for said stupidity.
Also please don't trade for Cliff Lee because I want to have a farm system for the next 6 years.
That argument
is stupid
"If the Saints can reach the Superbowl, the Rangers can reach the World Series." - PhilKid
The Animated Ballpark in Arlington
Quick Question...
Let’s say the Rangers make the playoffs this year. Who makes a bigger contribution, Smoak or Lee?
This hypothetical
is almost as stupid as the argument.
Playoffs are damn random occurrences, and like JB said, the best way to insure an eventual title is to make the playoffs as often as possible, and not by going “all in” for one year.
"If the Saints can reach the Superbowl, the Rangers can reach the World Series." - PhilKid
The Animated Ballpark in Arlington
Playoffs are a random occurrance?
Is that completely random? The teams on the field have 0 control? Is that your argument? If so, it’s dumber than the devil’s advocate argument I made earlier.
Well...
I’m not saying I would make the trade, but I hardly view dealing Smoak as going “All In”. I think the Rangers would have plenty left going forward.
I'm not having this
idiotic argument again with a different idiot. Check the thousands of other Lee threads. And yes, the Playoffs are a crapshoot. In any given series, a good team can lose to a worse team, regardless of who you have on that team.
It’s how the White Sox were able to win in 05 and the Cardinals in whatever that year was.
"If the Saints can reach the Superbowl, the Rangers can reach the World Series." - PhilKid
The Animated Ballpark in Arlington
Not really an argument...
So far your contribution to the discussion has simply been tyo say that everything is stupid. And then to make the laughable argument that the playoffs are a completely random crapshoot. I understand the better team doesn’t always win, but to say their random is silly.
I agree with this.
Any team CAN win, but it sure as hell isn’t random.
by Black Francis on Jul 9, 2010 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Just so we're clear...
Either (a) Lee is not > Smoak in this year’s playoff run or (b) it doesn’t matter because playoff series are random events? Which one of these positions are you taking? You’re definitely not taking position (a), right?
So...
If we make the playoffs, we’d have just as good a chance of winning a series going with Feldman, Harden, and Beltre as we would rolling Lee, Lewis, and CJ out there? Is that your contention?
That's ridiculous
teams that make the playoffs usually have rosters that are at least somewhat close together in talent, and teams which are close together in talent have a decent chance of beating each other in any given series.
This is why we see things like the Twins getting the As or the Angels in 02, Marlins in 03 over the Cubs/Yankees and any other random WS winners. So yes, in a playoff field, the result of any particular series is pretty much a crapshoot.
Does Cliff Lee make the Rangers better this year? Yes, but I think he makes them about 2-3 wins better if you have him replacing Feldman or someone like that (if you’re talking about WAR), and maybe only 1-2 win better if Holland can stay healthy and Harden can find a way to not such. As far as playoff goes, if you’d read any of the other Cliff Lee threads, you’d see it’s pretty commonly accepted that we go from 1/3 chance to win to about 2/5.
In this case, the Yankees adding Lee probably pushes us down to about 30%, but even to be generous, it might reduce our chances to 1/4. That’s a crappy %, but it’s still pretty close to our chances when the Yankees didn’t have Lee.
On the other hand, I see Smoak as being a 2 win player as a floor next year, and maybe as much as 4 or 5 as we get into his final arb years. Added to the fact that we have 0 replacements for him, and your proposition is essentially 6 years of team controlled production at a position of weakness for a 15% chance swing in one playoff series.
The best way to win a series is to play as many playoff games as possible, because sooner or later, it’ll go your way. Cliff Lee for Justin Smoak reduces your chances of going to future playoff games pretty directly (you add a 2-5 WAR hitter to Seattle), therefore it’s a stupid move and you’ve made a stupid argument.
I’m done with this argument.
"If the Saints can reach the Superbowl, the Rangers can reach the World Series." - PhilKid
The Animated Ballpark in Arlington
Lee is not for the rest of the season
I think Lee, Colby, CJ, Hunter + CD is worth more than Colby, CJ, Hunter, Feldman + Smoak.
I’m not saying I do the deal bc you still would have Smoak for the future… but moving all those guys down a position in the rotation would be huge.
It's actually not that huge
I mean the Twins had Johan Santana, the no doubt best pitcher in the league for 3 years running and they still lost to the Yankees. And this was a team with some pretty decent bats all over the lineup.
Would it make me feel better to have Lee/Lewis/whoever vs. Lewis/Whoever/Whoever? Absolutely. But as far as having a chance in a playoff series, it doesn’t make us that much more likely to win, certain not enough to give up Justin Smoak.
"If the Saints can reach the Superbowl, the Rangers can reach the World Series." - PhilKid
The Animated Ballpark in Arlington
Hmmm
In this case, the Yankees adding Lee probably pushes us down to about 30%, but even to be generous, it might reduce our chances to 1/4. That’s a crappy %, but it’s still pretty close to our chances when the Yankees didn’t have Lee.
Unpossible. The playoffs are a random crapshoot remember? How could you possibly assign quantitative analysis to a random crapshoot?
Did you expect
the Angels to beat the Red Sox last year?
"If the Saints can reach the Superbowl, the Rangers can reach the World Series." - PhilKid
The Animated Ballpark in Arlington
When we say it's a crapshoot
We mean two things. First, generally, the weaker team has a better chance of winning against the better team than you’d think. It doesn’t work out quite as well this way because of how loaded the Yankees are this year, but yes the Rangers still have a chance.
Second, the odds of winning a World Series in any given year are what really gets to be a crapshoot. If there were 8 equal teams, each team would have a 12.5% chance. Even though the teams aren’t equal, the compound nature of the probability makes it hard for any one team to be an overwhelming favorite to win. Say you think the Yankees win 65% of the series against the average of the 3 playoff teams it will play. Even though they are (in this scenario) clearly better than everyone else, they would only win 27.5% of the time.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
Of course we would.
Bad teams beat good teams all the time. And the Rangers aren’t a bad team. And they’d get some games at home.
This has been covered.
You can have a go at it
this argument is tiring and endlessly frustrating
"If the Saints can reach the Superbowl, the Rangers can reach the World Series." - PhilKid
The Animated Ballpark in Arlington
Of Course we Would What...
Have just as good of chance at winning a playoff series with Feldman, Beltre and Harden as we would with Lee, Lewis and CJ?
If so, that’s absurd. And I would dare say unsupportable.
My point...
Is simply that Lee would contribute more to a playoff series than Smoak, thus increasing our chances of winning said playoff series.
I really don't think anyone can argue with that fact.
The argument others are making is that the increased probability of beating the Yankees with Lee just isn’t worth giving up the 6 years of team control over Smoak. That’s a fair conclusion. I happen to disagree with it, but it’s a fair conclusion.
My idea of a “crapshoot” is a true 50-50 proposition, or something very close to it—certainly much closer than a 70-30 split. That’s not a “crapshoot” in any meaningful sense of the term. Those who say otherwise are just being obtuse.
I Agree...
Smoak > Lee + draft picks
I don’t think I’d do the deal, but I wouldnt burn down the Ballpark either.
48 dumb fucks.
Pitching coach Mike Maddux on Darren Oliver’s 0.00 ERA this spring:
"Economical work. He ain’t getting paid by the hour."
x
Ken_Rosenthal Source says third piece in Lee trade looks likes Triple A RHP Zach McAllister, 22 yo, 7-5 with a 4.45 ERA in 17 starts at AAA.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
I think
they’re just glad to have it over with
"If the Saints can reach the Superbowl, the Rangers can reach the World Series." - PhilKid
The Animated Ballpark in Arlington
You can argue whether or not Smoak is actually helping the ball club right now.
Bunting makes me spooge in my pants!
his post said he would not trade anyone who was helping the team this year or next
I argue Smoak is not helping the team this year, I know he will in the future, but now he is pretty much a bag of nothing.
Bunting makes me spooge in my pants!
Who could the Rangers put in place of Smoak to help them more now and next year?
Davis is their only internal option. It’s debatable whether one will help more than the other.
Pro baseball has always been a dream, so this is pretty freakin’ cool out here. -- Tim Steggall, undrafted Rangers minor leaguer.
Could've been a good move.
Pro baseball has always been a dream, so this is pretty freakin’ cool out here. -- Tim Steggall, undrafted Rangers minor leaguer.
well
one could say that this poll amounts to “is it worth trading our future chances for an improved chance this year?” But what people forget is that the playoffs are random. The best way to win a World Series is to makes the playoffs many years; not to load up and take one big shot. Ask the Braves of the ’90s. They were the best club in baseball probably 3 or 4 years; 1 title.
Go Rice Owls!
I believe he'll be helpful over second half of the season
I’m hoping he hits 1 WAR this year
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
I didn't want to go overboard
But assuming UZR doesn’t look terrible and his wOBA starts to more closely resemble his wOBAr, that sounds like a league average 1B to me. Half a season of a league average player should be 1 WAR.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
"is it worth trading our future chances for an improved chance this year?"
Depends on how much of your future you’re giving up and how much you’re improving your chances right now.
No...wait...fuck no
Whatever it takes, why dont we just givem Perez too then….i mean who gives a shit
Sorry, I'm really fucking stupid and should be ridiculed and mocked for said stupidity.
Also please don't trade for Cliff Lee because I want to have a farm system for the next 6 years.
If this really is the case
SI_JonHeyman
#yanks have offered montero, adams and 3rd prospect. now its up to seattle. i do think theyll agree, eventually. #Lee
Then I’m guessing the Mariners are going to give us an opportunity to match to counter?
it's likely
The Mariners are shopping this offer around in hopes another team can beat it. NY might have went all in before they were supposed to, even though I think this is a nice offer that not many teams will top.
I don't want any part of that.
Montero is Perez/Smoak level for us and that would be an absolute disaster for 3 months of Lee.
That package is too great for us to try and outbid.
Let the Yankees have him
He would have ended up there anyways. And a couple of years from now, when Montero is either a below average defensive first baseman or a mediocre DH for Seattle, we’ll all be glad we’re not facing Smoak 20 times a year.
That's why they call them business sox
I suppose the reason I voted NO was
because I think 4,5 or 6 more years of Smoak thrills me more than the slight increase in playoff chances for us this year. Smoak seems to be the kind of player who the Rangers have been lacking for quite a long while. Power and patience at the plate warms my heart. Yes, I do realize Smoak has not been cutting the mustard lately, but he’s still got a lot of seasoning time left. Here’s an interesting question: Which player gives Seattle more wins over the next 5 years? Smoak or Montero? If the answer is even close, then that may be a reason why we need to keep Smoak. The last thing I want to do is weaken our club for future years and strengthen the Mariners at the same time.
"Evolution happened, now get over it." Michael Shermer
Smoak.
Simply because he’s got a head start. Over a longer window it could be Montero, but over five years, I’d be shocked if it’s not Smoak.
WTF? (This guy broke the story BTW)
Joelsherman1 #Mariners backing off #Yankees offer, Post has learned. Does not look like #Yankees are in it.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
well....
I have thought the Mariners were trying to scare teams into giving in, so maybe that is what happen.
To tell you the truth, I really would like to see a NL team swoop in and grab him
by death of the cool on Jul 9, 2010 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions
I hope the Reds do
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
x
Joelsherman1 #Mariners have turned in a different direction and #Yankees do not believe they are in it now (more to come)
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
and
Sherman says ‘the Yankees aren’t getting Cliff Lee,’ since another team has entered discussions aggressively.
(from MLBTR)
Freude schöner Götterfunken, Tochter aus Elysium, Freude!
i kind of figured this was the case
dragged out longer than I thought it would.
Us??????
Joelsherman1 To repeat the #Yankees aren’t getting Cliff Lee, #Mariners concerned about David Adams ankle plus apparently another team has jumped in hard
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
I hope not....
not for Smoak at least
by death of the cool on Jul 9, 2010 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions
If we make the trade
Smoak is gong to have to be in it now.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
Yeah, I don't see it getting done
even with Adams’ ankle, I can’t imagine the Mariners turning to another team unless someone equalled or bested Montero.
Freude schöner Götterfunken, Tochter aus Elysium, Freude!
Just sayin...
I think all of us want to keep Smoak.
That being said, who here is not going to be excited if we trade Smoak for Lee? I mean, honestly, I think we’ll all be here complaining with grins on our faces.
It has to be us
Unless the Mets caved in and threw in Davis.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
He's been overrated after a fast start
He’s a solid regular type.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
I will guess the Twins
but i hope the reds
by death of the cool on Jul 9, 2010 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions
The Reds can't trump the Yanks offer or us
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
Well, they could
Freude schöner Götterfunken, Tochter aus Elysium, Freude!
If the M's like Alonso
Most people don’t really anymore
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
Could still be the Rays.
If they could get Lawrie, then add Hellickson and anyone else in their top 10, they would trump the Yankees.
Pro baseball has always been a dream, so this is pretty freakin’ cool out here. -- Tim Steggall, undrafted Rangers minor leaguer.
Of fuck
Joel Sherman Joelsherman1
Hearing #Rangers are working really hard on #Lee now. Tricky because of finances with team sale not complete and MLB-imposed budget
Well, there goes my speculation that the Rays were jumping in.
I should change the poll question to:
Should JD be fired for trading Smoak for Lee?
Pro baseball has always been a dream, so this is pretty freakin’ cool out here. -- Tim Steggall, undrafted Rangers minor leaguer.
oh boy
"Diving stab by Andrus, gets up, throws.... GOT HIM!!! An unbelievable play! From short left field!"
-Eric Nadel on 5/17/10
by Jason Brynsvold on Jul 9, 2010 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions
FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU-
I almost wish it were something like… Davis, Salty, Beaven, and someone… I just want to keep the shit out of Smoak.
"That's borderline retarded"
smoak, scheppers, saltalamacchia
for lee and branyan
3:33pm: The Reds have spoken "extensively" with the Mariners about acquiring Lee in the past 48 hours, a source tells Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (Twitter link). Price reports that the Reds are going "all-out" for Lee (Twitter link).
Pro baseball has always been a dream, so this is pretty freakin’ cool out here. -- Tim Steggall, undrafted Rangers minor leaguer.
I know Smoak is given nights off regularly but..
He’s not in the lineup tonight.
Just so everyone is aware
I’m one of the guys that voted yes on trading Smoak+ for Lee.
I still have faith in Davis.
This year Smoak is not going to be a huge offensive upgrade over Davis.
In the years to come Smoak will most likely be a good player, but it’s not for sure and I think a good 1B is more replaceable than the pitching we might have to give up.
Also with the bankruptcy crap, who knows if the next guys to come in will fuck this team up or not, so right now might be our best shot. Even though it looks like the team is positioned for the long term, who knows what will happen after the sale?
I say yes
a few days ago I was no way but now it looks like Greenberg isn’t getting the team which means Nolan, Johnny D, and the front office is likely gone. It’s time… because this may very well be the last year the Rangers are looking up for a while.
3:57pm: The Rangers will acquire Lee and Mark Lowe for Justin Smoak and three others, according to Sherman (via Twitter).
Holy Shit!
Pro baseball has always been a dream, so this is pretty freakin’ cool out here. -- Tim Steggall, undrafted Rangers minor leaguer.
Hi, long time first time.
I’m an Angels fan. And just like you guys last year, I’m not ready to concede the division race just yet.
But what makes me very nervous is that your team will or already has traded for Cliff Lee. Three month rental be damned, with your team’s offense, its nearly an automatic win when he’s pitching. Why wouldn’t you want that guy? I’ll admit that I’m not super knowledgeable about Smoak, but how good was he? Was his bat going to win the division for you? Was his bat going to beat the Yankees for you? Probably not. But Lee could probably lock down the Yankee offense.
Garret Atkins is available if you need a first baseman. Didn’t Hank just become available too?
I was really hoping Lee would end up on the Reds. Still not giving up the division, but your team is looking real good.
RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09
I blog about the Angels at The Diamond Aces
thanks Jay
I think most folks here have vested interests in our farm system because the disappointing play at the MLB level over the last 3 years (nice run at the end of last year but that was it). So, tons of guys have the mentality they are losing their 1st son when it comes to losing our prospects when the Angels/Yankee/etc fans don’t blink an eye losing farm talent to help their chances to go all the way. We haven’t experienced that much around here. The same guys would be complaining we didn’t do anything after we got knocked out of the divisional playoff.
Uncharted Waters.
Don't get me wrong...
When the Angels traded Casey Kotchman and some prospects to Atlanta for Teixera some weren’t to thrilled. Kotchman was revered in Anaheim, of course Tex helped change that. And then Kendry Morales made it very excusable.
And last years trade deadline move for Kazmir that cost us Rodriguez and some prospects hurt too. Look at how well S-Rod is doing in Tampa. But you have to give to get sometimes.
RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09
I blog about the Angels at The Diamond Aces
Yep
Read the early posts to the thread. There was vitrol for anyone that even considered voting yes. And now we’re at almost 50/50.
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