My estimates of the Rangers payroll in 2011 and 2012

The discussions over the past week or so about the benefit of signing Cliff Lee got me thinking about exactly what the Rangers roster situation for the next couple of years.  Below is my attempt to fairly assess what the short-term payroll situation of the club is going forward, specifically years 2011-2012.  All the data on service time is from Scott Lucas’s site, and money is from there and Cots.

The format is as follows: I’m going to list the players who are under team control and what their salaries will be or should be through arbitration process.  This is obviously a guess, and can be discussed; but I’m going to go roughly off the following equation:  Arb year 1/2/3: 25%/50%/75% free agent value, with a fudge for changed performance (Hammy’s est. FA value went up this year).  Free agent value will be estimated.  All numbers are in millions.  I apologize ahead of time if there are any minor errors, please let me know if so.

2011

Pitchers

Lewis: 3
Feldman: 4.4
Harden: 1 (assume buyout)
Oliver: 3.25 (assume option vests)

Wilson: 3rd year arbitration.  Estimate 6 million
Lowe: 2nd year arbitration.  Estimate 1.5 million (not much of a raise due to injury)
Nippert: 1st year arbitration.  Estimate 1 million

Lee, Frankie free agents

Hitters

Young: 12
Kinsler: 6
Vlad: 9 (option?)
Hamilton: 2nd year arbitration: 3.25 last year, better season, estimate 8.
Cruz: 1st year arbitration: 3.25 (estimate off Josh’s 2010)
Murphy: 1st year arbitration: 1.5

Molina, Treanor free agents

In summary
Fixed costs: 29.75
Unknown option: 9 (Vlad)
Arbitration estimate: 23.25

12 players (11 w/o Vlad)
Estimate $62.00 ($53.00 w/o Vlad)

Rest of carried over roster is at or around major league minimums.  This covers Elvis, Hunter, Holland, Harrison, Feliz, Borbon, etc.  Assume 12 players to cover 25 man roster at $500K each for minimum (includes buffer since some DL time will result in team paying double minimums), roughly $6 million

Estimate $68.00 ($59.00 w/o Vlad)

Holes: in addition to Lee, the Rangers would obviously need to fill catcher, replace Vlad (if he walks), possibly replace Frankie, and potentially a first basemen. 
Definite needs: catcher
Probable needs: first baseman, bullpen arm

2012

Pitchers

Lewis: 3.25 (option)
Feldman: 6.5 (yay!)

Lowe: 3rd arbitration – I have no idea… say 3
Harrison: 1st arbitration – 1.5
O’Day: 1st arbitration - 1
Holland: Super 2 arbitration? – assume no after AAA time this year

Nippert and Mathis will be up for arbitration, these are likely non-factors/non-tenders

CJ, Oliver gone via free agency

Hitters

Kinsler: 7
Young: 12

Hamilton: 3rd arbitration - 12
Cruz: 2nd arbitration – 7
Murphy: 2nd arbitration - 3
Andrus: 1st arbitration - 3

Teagarden, Blanco, Davis, and Boggs could be up for 1st arbitration, but these are likely non-factors/non-tenders

Vlad gone via free agency

In summary
Fixed costs: 28.75 (4 players)
Arbitration estimate: 30.5 (7 players)

11 players

Estimate $59.25

Rest of carried over roster is at or around major league minimums.  This covers Hunter, Holland, Feliz, Borbon, etc., and hopefully Scheppers and Perez.  Assume 10 players to cover 25 man roster at $500K each for minimum (includes buffer since some DL time will result in team paying double minimums), roughly $5 million

Estimate $64.25

Holes: At this point, unless we assume that the minors keep providing 4-5 major league quality players a year, there are more holes to fill via the market, as I’ve essentially non-tendered guys like Davis, Teagarden, Nippert, and Mathis before they can cost a lot via free agency. 
Definite needs: catcher, DH
Probable needs: first baseman, starter, 1-2 bullpen arms

Conclusions – over 2011 and 2012, the Rangers should be looking at roughly $65-70 million each year to maintain their current roster, minus guys who become eligible for free agency (i.e., Lee, Molina, Wilson, Frankie).   There are obvious holes to fill in addition to re-signing Lee, most obviously catcher, but also including 1b, the requisite annual added bullpen arm or two, and the Vlad question.  One should note that more players will be required to supplement lost players in 2012, so the equivalent committed salary numbers are somewhat deceiving. 

Also, most here would say that locking up players like Elvis and Feliz (as well as Hamilton) is something this front office should be considering.  Such actions will not change these numbers dramatically, but they would push a few dollars forward.

I’m going to refrain from making very strong claims about my favorite targets (Lee, Feldman), but I will simply note that these are non-trivial commitments for a team whose total payroll will likely be in the $70-$80 million range, at maximum, over this time period.   I will simply say that it will be hard to address other areas of concern via free agency if Lee is signed, though this obviously doesn’t preclude trading for cheaper players to fill those holes.  Also, removing Scott Feldman’s bloated salary from this would make things a lot more flexible going forward…