BP - Rangers Drought Finally Looks Over (free)
by Rodney on Aug 22, 2010 5:05 PM CDT
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PrintGreat statistical look into the Rangers' season thus far.
The Rangers have gotten to where they are because they are a very good team. They are above average in defense (second in the majors in PADE), hitting (.263 TAv as a team), baserunning (fourth in the majors), and pitching (above average in both strikeout rate and unintentional walk rate). There are plenty of ways to be a good baseball team, but one path that nobody questions is to be pretty good at everything, and that is just what the Rangers have been this year.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=11792
(if this has already been posted, I will delete)
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People still read BP?
Just kidding. It’s great to read articles about how the Rangers drought is over.
I’m pretty much okay now with the fact this team is the 3rd best in the league, behind Tampa and NY. But there is about a 50% chance that they’ll have home field in round one, and the top of their rotation is strong enough to battle most anyone’s.
I wonder how much of Tampa and NY’s extra strength is at the back end of their rotations which are obviously better than ours. But in the playoffs, it won’t matter if it is Hunter, Feldman, Harden, Hughes, Vazquez, Shields, Hellickson, or Davis.
Lee, Wilson, Lewis
Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte
Price, Garza, Niemann
Go Rice Owls!
In the top 5 in Secret Sauce too
And I am pretty much ready to renew my BP sub.
"I support you, Wash; I’ve always supported you," Young said
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
If the offense can put up a few runs on the board against those guys
I’d feel pretty confident in the Rangers having the pitching match-ups with each of those guys.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Why wouldn't you consider
Minnesota a threat also? Last time I checked their W-L record was a bit better than ours.
"Evolution happened, now get over it." Michael Shermer
You only think that because you played there
you probably think the California Angels have a chance also
Go Rice Owls!
by JBImaknee on Aug 22, 2010 8:46 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
lol
plus, a Twins-Rangers match-up doesn’t happen until the second round
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
and lets all be serious here...
we’re all hoping that the Twins win that division and knock off whoever from the East that they play. A healthy Minny can be scary – but give me them over 7 games facing them than the Rays or Yanks any time.
Go Rice Owls!
I wonder...
If Wash may choose “Big Game” Hunter over Lewis for number three… He’s been pitching better than Colby as of late.
"I said I got this guy out a couple of times already, I get him out historically and I really need to work on my neck tan," -- CJ Wilson getting pulled with 2 out in the 8th.
In what universe is this in?
Because Tommy Hunter had a 5.85 FIP in July and a 6.15 FIP so far this month (Colby, for comparison’s sake: 3.64 FIP in July, 2.27 in August.)
In any case, Wash would be an idiot to go with Hunter over Lewis unless there was something wrong with Lewis, because Colby is simply twice the pitcher Hunter is.
Which, I suppose could be counted as a reason why you can’t discount Wash doing such a thing, but still…
I don’t always have sex with men…but when I do, I prefer Josh Hamilton. - AJM
Statistically that may be correct
But if Hunter is throwing well late in the season, as he did in Baltimore yesterday, then you might want to go to a four man rotation if Cliff Lee picks up an opening victory and the Rangers have a 2-1 lead going into game four. It might also make a difference whether Hunter would be pitching at home or on the road, depending on what his home/road splits are.
Lewis has been significantly better all season. If you want an equally valid reason to start Hunter over Lewis:
Josh hits homers when Hunter starts.
The offense doesn’t score when Lewis starts.
Pro baseball has always been a dream, so this is pretty freakin’ cool out here. -- Tim Steggall, undrafted Rangers minor leaguer.
I assume this was a joke
But I’m not sure. God I hope it was a joke.
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
Hunter's last couple of starts have been far from spectacular though
Lewis has reliably been very good.
In the ALCS, if a #4 is required, Hunter is great to have in there. In fact, I’d probably prefer Hunter over risking one of Lewis, Wilson, Lee on short rest. But he’s clearly the #4 in this rotation
Go Rice Owls!
I'd rather try Holland
"I don’t know how these SN blog authors get their gigs, but I’m frankly surprised SN tolerates AJM’s lack of effort." Tex34
At the end of the day.... Nolan Ryan will be the next control owner of the Texas Rangers Baseball Club.
by bigoil on Jul 7, 2010 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
by Brian Thomas on Aug 25, 2010 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions
As if it is ever going to happen.
There isn’t a manager in baseball that I know of who is gonna replace a 10-2, 3.68 ERA pitcher with a 2-2, 5.32 ERA pitcher. You can say all you want about FIP, or any other Defense independant metric, but I think most managers go more off the actual results players have gotten for them.
Whether Hunter’s results are completely fluky or not, I can’t imagine he will lose his rotation spot this year. Maybe next year if his results fall in line with his defense independant stats like Feldman did, and Holland actually starts getting good results for a change.
Holland can’t even beat out Harden this year, he damn sure isn’t beating out Hunter for the spot.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
Uh oh....
someone said something positive about Holland.
Time for Dan to come in a rip on him again.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
It's just the thought
of the Rangers putting Holland on the postseason roster seems a little silly. Doesn’t mean he won’t be a decent pitcher eventually, when he is 25 or so
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
I know...
I’m just giving you shit.
It seems like whenever anyone posts anything about Holland lately (and many times that has been me) you reply and piss all over the kid.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
If someone wants to post
how he will help the team in 2011 or 2012, I won’t have a problem with it.
I just think it is completely absurd to think there is any chance that the Rangers would put him on the postseason roster. Chris Davis has almost as good of odds as Holland.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
Right this minute
I have as much faith in Holland as I do in Hunter, and more than I do in Harden or Feldman.
But you’re completely right about the reality of the situation. Hunter is going to get the ball right now over Holland. And in some ways, even though I’m more excited about Holland’s potential in the present (and not just the future), Hunter has been solid (lucky or not) for the team this year, and ditching him for Holland would be a poor message to send.
Freude schöner Götterfunken, Tochter aus Elysium, Freude!
I know folks scoff at ERA
but I think guys like Wash, Maddux, and Ryan like it, and that weights big.
Hunter 10-2, 3.68 ERA
Holland 2-2 5.32 ERA
Holland is now racking up quite a few innings where he has been “unlucky”. He has 162 IP in the majors, with an ERA+ of 77. His results have sucked ass, and that is gonna factor into the Rangers decision.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
Lighten up Francis
That was a pretty obnoxious little diatribe.
The sum of my comment was “I’d rather try Holland.”
I just think it is completely absurd to think there is any chance that the Rangers would put him on the postseason roster. Chris Davis has almost as good of odds as Holland.
The first sentence is a dumbass straw man. The second is hyberbole.
I have no idea why you picked me out of the chorus to lecture me on your hobby horse of the day, that MLB managers sneer at FIP.
I guess I should have boldicized “I.” As in, I’d like to see Holland get the nod over Hunter, EVEN THOUGH HE WON’T, because he has much better stuff, which guys like Wash, Ryan, and Maddux do tend to “weight big.”
RIF.
"I don’t know how these SN blog authors get their gigs, but I’m frankly surprised SN tolerates AJM’s lack of effort." Tex34
At the end of the day.... Nolan Ryan will be the next control owner of the Texas Rangers Baseball Club.
by bigoil on Jul 7, 2010 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
by Brian Thomas on Aug 26, 2010 9:22 PM CDT up reply actions
You think Wash is choosing the rotation for the playoffs?
I very much doubt it. He doesn’t get to go with the “gut” here. The best pitchers will start. JD will take care of this of situation.
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
Probably the universe
that most manager’s don’t give a rat’s ass about FIP? You know, this one?
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
Base running is the one that probably would surprise most people
Despite all the much-discussed base running gaffes by Vlad and Andrus, the Rangers do well.
Freude schöner Götterfunken, Tochter aus Elysium, Freude!
But they can do better
Not a knock on them just an easy place to improve.
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
Not that simple
If you take away the aggressiveness to stop the “stupid shit” you probably also take away some of the chances that work out well, like Hamilton scoring from 2nd last week. It’s not a zero sum game.
Freude schöner Götterfunken, Tochter aus Elysium, Freude!
Its not aggressiveness that needs to be stopped
Its the stupidity like most of what Vlad has done this season on the basepaths. If he is a smarter baserunner, he can at least get to being worth 0 runs on the basepaths. You could also say that there might be some addition by substraction from this point forward. Looking at the team’s worst baserunners, you’ve got Blanco, MaxRam, and Smoak just ahead of Vlad. MaxRam and Smoak are no longer here and Blanco will soon be replaced by Kinsler hopefully. Of course, no MaxRam means more Molina which isn’t any kind of improvement, but there are still a few runs to gain in the team’s baserunning.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
You'll get no arguments from me on Vlad
But base running is a bit like relief pitching, we tend to notice the mistakes and bad outcomes a lot more than the good. Above, I’m just objecting to what is hopefully not a simplistic look at this issue. The public perception of the team’s base running does not reflect reality.
Freude schöner Götterfunken, Tochter aus Elysium, Freude!
I don't see them as 4th in the majors
If you use SB-2xCS, the Rangers are below average with 12 net bases. MLB average is 16 net bases.
The Rangers steal a lot of bases, but they are the 4th worst team in baseball at being Caught stealing.
This obviously does not include just stupid baserunning mistakes that aren’t stolen base attempts. Realistically only Cruz, Murphy and Hamilton should have unlimited Green lights. Guys like Andrus, Borbon and especially Guerrero should often get red lights.
This team should really do something in the offseason to work on guys like Andrus and Borbon, who have natural speed, but suck ass at stealing bases.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
It includes things like taking 3rd from 1st on a single, too
Agree wholeheartedly with the last paragraph. There’s potential there.
Freude schöner Götterfunken, Tochter aus Elysium, Freude!
unless it includes
guys being thrown out going from 1st to 3rd on a single also, it is probably one of BPs fairly weak stats, which they seem to have more than their fair share.
I may not be renewing BP next year. It’s been fairly disappointing recently.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
Andrus is a good basestealer
He’s not having a good year this season, but I don’t think its going to be a problem for him in later seasons. Last year, he went 33-39 on the basepaths and never had any problem being a good basestealer in the minors. Borbon still needs some work on being able to steal bases in the Majors clearly, but that’s just been one of the problems he’s had to work through. He’s got his defense down pretty well, which is the most important thing he could work on. When/if he starts hitting better, I would expect Pettis to work with him on the non-speed aspects of basestealing, but he’s got to get on base first.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
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