Tuesday a.m. Rangers stuff
by Adam J. Morris on Sep 7, 2010 9:25 AM CDT
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PrintThis ranks right up there with the pre-ASB Baltimore series that shall not be named as the ugliest stretch of baseball this year for the Rangers.
Anthony Andro writes in his game story that Tommy Hunter has been having a problem with the home run ball of late.
On the Rangers' website, their game story talks about Ron Washington being unhappy with the mental error by Taylor Teagarden which allowed a run to score, when a strike three to John Buck got past him, and Teagarden threw to home rather than to first.
The notes on the Rangers website talk about the addition of Esteban German to the active roster, and Ian Kinsler hitting leadoff for the first time this season.
Andro's notes hit on Scott Feldman making a spot start tonight, and provide a Josh Hamilton update.
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Regression's a cold, hard bitch.
"Drinks are on me if Lewis posts >168IP and an era lower than 3.86." by RangerMad on Jan 20, 2010 12:36 PM PST
by jam0152 on Sep 7, 2010 9:27 AM CDT reply actions 3 recs
That Georgia Tech guy is going to hate you...
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
Hunter still has a lot of value...
I expect him to be a very durable and reliable starter the next few years. Probably around 200 IP and an ERA in the 4.00 – 4.50 range.
He’s not going to be 12-2 with a 2.30 ERA, but that’s okay.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
what the hell are we going to get back for him?
"Look at our current situation with that camel f$%ker over in Iraq. Pacifism is not something to hide behind."
by Walter Sobchak on Sep 7, 2010 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions
Obviously Pujols.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
Yep if you realize what he is
a solid back of the rotation option, he will be fine. If you can get someone to trade you position players based on his mid-front of the rotation results this year, then by all means trade him.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
And if someone wanted to trade us big
after Helling had his 20 win season, I would have been all over that :)
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
Yeah.
It’s unfortunate that a Feldman start is coming in the midst of some of the worst baseball this team has played all year. Something tells me we won’t be ending that bad stretch tonight. Barf.
I thought you play to win the game?
You don’t play to just play it. And if you’re telling me, that it doesn’t matter, then retire. Get out.
Well...
then if you want to crown him… crown his ass.
I couldn't care less about the Jets right now...
"Look at our current situation with that camel f$%ker over in Iraq. Pacifism is not something to hide behind."
by Walter Sobchak on Sep 7, 2010 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions
If you want to crown...
THEIR ASS. THEN CROWN THEM!
If I had a gun to my head and had to pick one pitcher to pitch a game to save my life.... I'd pick 1999 Rick Helling.
by matthewbschultz83 on Sep 7, 2010 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions
If Feldman pitches like he usually does
Then he’s a good starter to have going for us tonight. 6 innings and giving up 4 ER isn’t great, but it would give the Rangers something they need right now.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
His odds of STBF are high
And it appears to be contagious. I hope Cliff Lee is quarantined right now. This is getting plain ridiculous.
meh
The only reason Feldman isn’t in the rotation anymore is because the rotation had a hotter pitcher in Hunter and more TORP potential from Holland and Harden. Feldman for most of the year has given pretty consistent back of the rotation results.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Number of Games at/above or below your comment of 6 Innings/4 ER
Feldman for most of the year has given pretty consistent back of the rotation results.
9 Games of 6 IP or greater and 4 ER or fewer
11 Games of poor performance (although 3 of those games were close, 5 1/3 3 ER, 8 IP 5 ER, 5 2/3 3 ER).
Most of the 9 that fit your criteria are right between 6-7 IP and right at 4 ER. This year, only about 15-20% of the time you can expect better results than 6 IP and 4 ER, only 50% of the time you can expect 6 IP and 4 ER or better, and 50% of the time you can expect something worse than that.
I won’t give him much credit for this season. It is reminiscent of Rangers pitchers in the middle part of this decade.
Just out of curiousity
what happens when you do that same analysis for other starters, like Holland.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
Feldman is coming off an injury, has been mostly terrible all year,
lasted only 4 IPs in his last OKC start and got hammered in Toronto earlier this year.
It doesn’t look good for the locals tonight.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
It's baseball
you never know.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
I'm not comparing Feldman to Holland
Nor anyone for that matter. I’m just disagreeing with you that we can “expect 6 IP and 4 ER” which he has done “consistently” this year.
Feldman is the best option for the start tonight, sure. That doesn’t make me comfortable with this game. Especially against a pitcher as good as Marcum.
Someone else
you are disagreeing with, not me.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
He struggled out of the gate
and then got hurt by being left out there for an extra inning on a few starts throughout the season. Given his overall season numbers, he’s a pretty good bet to give you just that, 6 IP and 4 ER.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
I guess it is either him
or Harden. I’m wondering if it is possible for MUTRIHOF to be bad enough not to factor into next year’s rotation plans.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
When the Roto is Lee (wink), Wilson, Colby, Dutch, and Tommy
there’s no room for Suck Feldman!
"Drinks are on me if Lewis posts >168IP and an era lower than 3.86." by RangerMad on Jan 20, 2010 12:36 PM PST
If that happened
it’s still probably MUTRIHOF pushing out Dutch Oven.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
Eh
If that happened out of spring training, it’s not the end of the world for Holland to start in AAA again.
Unless Feldman completely sucks
or Holland comes on strong, it wouldn’t at all surprise me. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Holland be a Loogy next year out of the gates.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
I doubt he'd be in the bullpen
With both Harrison and Kirkman around. He’d just be shuttled to AAA.
I don’t always have sex with men…but when I do, I prefer Josh Hamilton. - AJM
by LSJ on Sep 7, 2010 9:45 AM CDT up reply actions
I think Oliver is gone next year.
I think Kirkman may have as much a shot at the rotation as Holland, unless Holland actually starts putting some strong efforts together down the stretch.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
Oliver has a vesting option, which I believe has already vested or is damn close.
He’ll be back.
I don’t always have sex with men…but when I do, I prefer Josh Hamilton. - AJM
by LSJ on Sep 7, 2010 9:48 AM CDT up reply actions
He's damn close
# 1 year/$3.5M (2010), plus 2011 club option
* signed by Texas as a free agent 12/22/09
* 10:$3M, 11:$3.25M club option ($0.5M buyout)
* 2011 option guaranteed with 59 appearances in 2010
He’s at 55 right now and I find it hard to see any way he doesn’t get at least 4 more appearances between now and the end of the season.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
It'll be very interesting to watch the battle between Kirkman and Holland
"Drinks are on me if Lewis posts >168IP and an era lower than 3.86." by RangerMad on Jan 20, 2010 12:36 PM PST
I think the team might fall in love with him in the bullpen
If he’s going to continue dominating like this in the bullpen and the rotation looks to be as full as it does, the team might just leave him in the bullpen (at least to start next year).
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Yeah
Thats about the last place I would expect the team to use him. He’s a starter with a lot of potential and the team already could have 3 other lefties in the pen with Oliver, Kirkman, and Harrison.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Kirkman is not a reliever
He will start next year as a starter whether its in Arlington or Round Rock. He will most likely be the first or second guy called up in the event of injury or poor performance.
If he isn’t being used when July rolls around then they may bring him back up in the pen again for another late season run.
But the likelihood of Kirkman being in the ML pen in April is very very low
I'd say its the exact opposite of very low
A bullpen that has Feliz, Oliver, Ogando, Kirkman, and O’Day in it gives you a dominant 7-9 and lets you mix it up to not overuse any one pitcher among them. The Rangers always say that they’ll take their best guys out of ST, and they usually do (with a few exceptions due to contracts and option status) and Kirkman the reliever looks to be one of those guys.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Disagree
As this and every other season has shown you need multiple starting pitchers in AAA ready to help the ML club.
Kirkman has looked great out of the pen this year but ultimately hes still a starter. I think we have enugh other options to do what Kirkman does that we will start him in AAA next year in the rotation and then if we need him in the pen late in the season we do it again.
But with Rapada, Phillips, and Snyder along with Harrison we have plenty of LH options for the pen to where we can put a guy like Kirkman in his more valuable role, which is starter
Yep
but he is gonna need to keep showing high level results, imo. This organization has shown many times that you eventually have to perform to keep your slot. A lot of guys like Salty, Borbon, Davis, Feldman and others have been shuffled aside.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
I think we're at the "Ya gotta have patience with the young
pitcher with tremendous upside" phase with the Dutch Oven.
You give him 30 starts next year and then reassess.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
I'm not sure
that’s where the Rangers are with him. I understand that’s where a lot on this board are with him.
I think the Rangers are more at the “Show us something or we’ll wheel other guys in” phase. Maybe I am reading the tea leaves wrong, but this franchise seems to have more good starting prospects than slots available in the next few years.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
The Dutch Oven has 27 starts in The Show.
With this kind of talent, more patience is required – see John Danks.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
Danks really isn't a good comparison
considering he had less IP and Starts when he started pitching well.
The future is now for Holland. He better start delivering from last game out.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
You don't shit-can a young LH pitcher
with this kind of talent after fewer than 30 starts.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
Aye.
See: Lester, Jon.
I don’t always have sex with men…but when I do, I prefer Josh Hamilton. - AJM
Actually
Lester was pitching fine when he had the same numbers of IP and GS as Holland.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
Lester's FIP's at ages 22 and 23: 4.56 and 5.24
Holland’s FIP’s at 22 and 23: 5.10 and 4.78.
And if you look at xFIP and tERA, they actually favor Holland a little.
I don’t always have sex with men…but when I do, I prefer Josh Hamilton. - AJM
Derek Holland
has 173 IP and 27 Games started right now. Lester after 2 years had 26 GS and 144 IP.
As long as Holland starts pitching like Lester did in his 3rd year, he should be fine, and he will wrap up the starting spot.
Holland has had plenty of time for mulligans, hopefully he can step up and have more starts like his last one, and less like his start 2 games ago.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
I'm betting he breaks the losing streak and all the Feldmanites get to rejoice for a night.
I don’t always have sex with men…but when I do, I prefer Josh Hamilton. - AJM
by LSJ on Sep 7, 2010 9:34 AM CDT up reply actions
I am pissed.
And just tired of the BS mentally deficient baseball this team has been playing. It’s a new mental gaffe every single game. Baseballs in shirts, failing to call for balls, you name it. So sick of the sloppy play.
Jeeez, Teagarden's mental error gets called out in the media
by the Old School Brutha and he continues to scuffle for playing time but we never hear a word about all the mental errors Judy Borbon makes.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
Because its a conspiracy
to kick Teagarden out of the way and keep protecting Borbon.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Actually, the last time I caught a game, Nadel was talking about how Borbon's mental mistakes have been making Washington reluctant to play him.
I don’t always have sex with men…but when I do, I prefer Josh Hamilton. - AJM
by LSJ on Sep 7, 2010 9:44 AM CDT up reply actions
Not real surprising
Borbon has some of the worst baseball instincts seen recently. You almost wonder if he didn’t start playing til 16 or something. If he has been playing since he was a kid, I tend to doubt he is ever going to get over being a dumb ballplayer, he has the instincts of Manny Ramirez, without Manny’s ability to hit.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
I also heard that.
Sounded like Nadel wasn’t happy with Borbon at all on that radio broadcast a few days ago.
by kchorton on Sep 7, 2010 10:03 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
If you watch the games
he is a very frustrating player to watch, because he makes mistakes that are often made at little league games, but not so much in the majors.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
its b/c
Julio doesn’t think he’s too smart to play for Wash
"My expectations today are that we're going to be extremely competitive and if we don't win our division, I'll be disappointed." Nolan Ryan
Actually
its because Julio Borbon doesn’t play middle infield. Outfielders all have to have power.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
yep
This team is not playing like a 3rd place club, much less a 1st place club right now.
I swear, if the Rangers keep playing like this through September, and then stumble into the playoffs with mentally vapid baseball and get knocked out in the pathetic way they’ve been losing game after game after game this last week or so, there is no way Washington can come back. I don’t care about his lineups, the bullpen use, or any of the things normally associated with Wash. But the fact this team gets into stretches where players literally forget basic strategic concepts drives me insane. That has to be hung on the Manager – and if it takes down the 2010 Rangers when it actually matters, he can’t possibly be coming back.
Go Rice Owls!
But he's such a Great Motivator of Men, remember?
I don’t always have sex with men…but when I do, I prefer Josh Hamilton. - AJM
That 92 looks far fetched now, too.
God we are in a funk.
by diamond_dave on Sep 7, 2010 10:34 AM CDT up reply actions
Fat Nick Blackburn
Is Fat Nick Blackburn.
I don’t always have sex with men…but when I do, I prefer Josh Hamilton. - AJM
Blech.
I am glad I was out of town for these last few games. I’m not really looking forward to watching Scooter tonight, either.
"I’ve been a Rangers fan all my life and I can tell you there’s been plenty of fucking crying in baseball…" - WhipSmart, 6.3.08
OT, and sorry to depress everyone's morning.
But, I got word this morning that my grandmother passed away during the night. If you’re the praying kind, please keep my family in your prayers as we all travel back home for the funeral service.
Again, sorry to pour sadness on your morning, but I think of you guys as my friends.
best thoughts, bro
"Drinks are on me if Lewis posts >168IP and an era lower than 3.86." by RangerMad on Jan 20, 2010 12:36 PM PST
sry man.
I cried like a baby when my grandmother passed away.
best wishes to you and your family.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
That sucks dude
My granpa passed earlier this year.
I don’t always have sex with men…but when I do, I prefer Josh Hamilton. - AJM
by LSJ on Sep 7, 2010 9:38 AM CDT up reply actions
really sorry to hear about your loss....
Ball....toss.....antlers....
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Sep 7, 2010 9:55 AM CDT up reply actions
This baseball team is the last thing you need to be thinking about.
Peace be with you, brother.
by Past A Diving Michael Young on Sep 7, 2010 10:01 AM CDT up reply actions
Terrible news bud
I just lost my grandmother a month ago…you will be in my thoughts.
"I support you, Wash; I’ve always supported you," Young said
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
Thanks, guys.
Appreciate all the kind words.
by rockin_rangers on Sep 7, 2010 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions
I feel ya man.
My god-grandmother is dying, it sucks. I’ll be praying man.
Genesis 1: 3-4 (Rangers Edition): And JD said "Let there be Lee," and there was Lee. And JD saw the Lee, that it was good: and JD divided the Rangers from the Angels. by Aquaman56
That's because you weigh about a buck twenty five...
…and the wind ends up blowing you down the road faster than Bengie can run. AJM on Aug 30, 2010
sorry for your loss bro...hang in there.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Cecilio's Guante on Sep 7, 2010 11:10 PM CDT up reply actions
playoff ticket $ due Thursday...
my opinion is extremely shaped by the fact that i bought lots of playoff tickets, but watching this team crumble is painful.
putting up thousands of dollars (10 seats) to watch 1-2 playoff games isn’t my idea of fun… yes, the money gets refunded in a couple of months or applied to money that normally gets paid 3-4 months from now, but coughing up the money has been a challenge. i would laughingly say that it’s been more effort than the team has demonstrated in their last few games.
damned if i do; damned if i don’t
sorry for the rant…
In your same boat...
Got 10 seats in the 120’s…..
Might see 1 or 2 games.
Maybe a hot streak to end the season changes our minds…
If I had a gun to my head and had to pick one pitcher to pitch a game to save my life.... I'd pick 1999 Rick Helling.
by matthewbschultz83 on Sep 7, 2010 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions
it's okay...just remember at the end of the day, you're more handsome than all of us combined...cherish that.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Cecilio's Guante on Sep 7, 2010 11:11 PM CDT up reply actions
before we all jump off a cliff
remember that we are banged up. (last night lineup lacked elvis and hamilton and it looks like they won’t be back tonight either).
more importantly, remember that we’re still 7 games up, and as badly as we’re playing, its not like the yankees are barrelling down at us . neither Oakland nor the Angels are really in a position to make any sort of run.
we maybe win a game or 2 in Toronto, try and hold onto something at home against the yanks and, we’ll be fine.
Detroit at home then the rest of the season is against the AL West.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
x
For the longest time we were saying “the only reason we are losing as many as we are is because no Cruz, no Kinsler.” Now it’s no Elvis, no Hamilton. People go on the DL. Good teams win despite injuries.
That begs the question, then...
Are the Rangers a good team?
Happy birthday to Kenny. Happy birthday to you.
They definitely
are not a deep team.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
We bitched about the lack of depth on the bench all season.
But Blanco has been playing really well for the last couple of weeks. Bottom line: this team has been pretty bad for almost two months now.
Well yeah
I don’t think it was ever a really good team. The offense is carried by 5 guys, of which 3 are injury prone (Hamilton, Cruz, and Kinsler) and 2 are old (Guerrero and Young). The only other contributor is Murphy, and you’d rather see him as a platoon guy. Everyone else is either there for their glove,or they are just filler.
There is a reason in other threads I discuss trading pitching for younger position players. Long term, our lack of good young healthy position players is really a concern, and we probably have pitching to spare, especially if we can trade guys like Hunter, who have very good traditional numbers.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
lolwut?
I don’t think it was ever a really good team
Yeah, there are some injury/older players on this team, but given some money to actually work with in the offseason, you can get some decent depth to work around that. But its ridiculous to look at this team, even without the depth, and say that it was never a really good team.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
It's a team
that has had one good month, other than that it has been average.
I’m not saying it is a bad team, but not many folks compare it to the Yankees or anything.
It’s a slightly better than average team that is lucky to be in a shithole division.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
what a dumb statement to make
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
It's realism.
Sorry you aren’t used to it.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
No, you're right
Lets look at the team’s record minus their best month to figure out if they are a good team or not. Lets not look at how great Hamilton, Kinsler, and Cruz can play. Lets ignore what Vlad did in the first half of the season because he was slumping for most of the second half. The Rangers have one of the best bullpens in baseball and has 3 TORP in their rotation.
But again, you’re right. This team just isn’t really good.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Vlad has 2 seasons now
that point to his only being good for a couple months a year. Kinsler, Hamilton and Cruz have a huge track record as injury prone players, and expecting them not to be on the DL for a month or 2 is probably wishful thinking. Young has a history of being a bad defensive 3B who plays with injuries but plays poorly with them.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
Vlad throughout the season
.374 wOBA in April
.404 wOBA in May
.436 wOBA in June
.275 wOBA in July
.310 wOBA in August
3 absolutely great months of production and then he hit a road block. He probably needed rest that he didn’t get, but he’s back to an .863 OPS over the past 14 days. Of course you would say that he’s only good for a couple of months while he actually has been amazing for 3 months and struggled for 2.
Kinsler, Hamilton, and Cruz have had their injury problems in the past, but Kinsler is the only one of the bunch that I’m convinced will never play a full season anytime soon.
Cruz has had some hamstring problems this season and missed some time last season, but that’s apparently enough for you to say he has a huge track record as an injury prone player. Where is this huge track record of him being injury prone?
Hamilton has more of a history of course, but last season was the only one where he really couldn’t play because of it. He might have to play through some injuries, but as long as Wash doesn’t play him in CF and gives him some time at DH, he’s probably good for 140 games of a season.
Young is what he is and needs more time off throughout the year. He doesn’t make this team great, but he’s not making this team horrible either.
And I still fail to see how even with all that, you can look at this team and honestly say its a “slightly better than average team”
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Glad you are convinced
that Cruz and Hamilton aren’t injury prone players. I just hope the Rangers don’t make plans around them playing 120+ games very regularly.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
Why is Cruz an injury prone player?
You’re the one that said he had a huge track record of injuries. Where is that?
And you’re becoming more and more Josey-like by the day. Keep cherry picking away so you can bitch about this team some more.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Yeah, Cahill
This Thing is 11-17 over the last 28 games…why aren’t you doing nekkid jumping jacks?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
I was going to stay out of it
but Trevor, you just swung and missed.
Young has a history of being a bad defensive 3B who plays with injuries but plays poorly with them.
So, this “history” goes back all the way to, last year? Michael Young has an actual history of being a high average low walk medium power hitter who has played 3 different infield positions and been fair to good to bad at all of them. His lowest batting average since 2002 was the .284 he put up in 2008. H’s hit .300 or better 6 times in his career and has a chance to hit .300 this year. He’s played in a WHOLE lot of games, and while he’s had more injuries the last 3 years than in before, that’s not uncommon for guys in their 30’s. And he hits into a whole bunch of double plays.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
woah!!!!
step on the brakes there…
28-31 is not a playoff run, but its also not “pretty bad”. (that’s the team record since July 1) Its .500 (or a hair under).
they play .500 ball from here on out and they’ll win the division. (87-75 record. to tie that Oakland has to go 19-6 from here on out. the Angels would have to go 21-3 to reach 87 wins. not gonna happen)
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
I'm not sure it is
how many folks had this team pegged as a 500ish team this year. That’s pretty much what they have been outside of one hot month. Take June away from this team, and this team is in the muck.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
take that great 30-game stretch away and this team is only .500
what a stupid statement
It's Time.
by Jason Brynsvold on Sep 7, 2010 10:11 AM CDT up reply actions
Why is that a stupid statement?
Is it stupid because it is correct? This team was great in June and the rest of the year they have been mediocre. For 4/5ths of the season, they have been a .500 (or a little below) club.
"Ok, post your favorite moment of the Tom Hicks era
Mine is today when he sold the team." - t ball
It's not a statistically sound way of looking at things,
unless you can prove conclusively that June was the result of some fluke factor that isn’t going to happen again and so shouldn’t be included in the overall evaluation of the team.
Why not take away the bad stretches instead, and get all giddy again?
I would like to introduce you to the NL...
or what you like to call “some fluke factor that isn’t going to happen again.”
NOT pointing out when a team gets fat off opponents that are horrible is what’s stupid.
16-3 off these guys doesn’t make you a good team:
-30
-11
-17
-9
-45
and HOU again at -9
Not sure how you could be more statistically sound… Bad comment.
Keep SEA since they are in our division (as well as the AL), but 13-2 against the rest – take that out and this team is a big bag of spare.
by sam in so cal on Sep 7, 2010 10:36 AM CDT up reply actions
If you're not doing the same thing for every team in the league,
then it’s not something particularly meaningful. Of course teams have better records against teams with worse records. That’s practically a tautology.
I mean, that's basicallly what 3rd order wins tries to do, no?
That has the Rangers at 74-63 right now. A .540 team.
what's meaningful is the draw we had.
there was not a team with an easier interleague schedule. those games were all NL teams, and they were all in June (except the first set against SEA).
our June NL opponents were 82 games below .500 which is really 91 games below since we played HOU twice.
no other team had this. that’s why it’s a “fluke factor” that’s “particularly meaningful”
you asked for conclusive proof. i gave it to you. now what?
by sam in so cal on Sep 7, 2010 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions
Um, the addendum I posted 14 minutes ago?
Third order wins are adjusted for strength of schedule. They have the Rangers 11 games above .500. So I maintain that you can’t just dismiss a month’s worth of games to say “they’re really a .500 team because they’ve been a .500 team when you take out that month.”
According to third order wins, the Rangers are only one game higher than what they “should” be, taking that schedule into account. Plenty of other teams, like the Yankees, Reds, and Twins, have gotten “luckier” than the Rangers by that measurement.
sorry i didn't hit refresh to see you reply to your own post, asshole
i’m trying to work, and my law firm gets upset when i don’t bill out enough hours.
they’re pretty weird like that.
you have a big problem with excluding June saying that it lacks logic. i pointed out that June was abnormal b/c TEX had 15 games against the worst teams in the NL (13-2). your response was to look at a mythical record instead of tangible wins and losses. TEX benefited from the easiest interleague schedule – FACT. without that schedule (that occurred in June), they are a .500 team. I agree that excluding a month just because it’s a month lacks logic, but failing to look at something as plain as a favorable NL schedule against these teams is as bad or worse.
by sam in so cal on Sep 7, 2010 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions
Having to refresh is for suckers.
I have a problem with taking away the stretch of games where the Rangers did the best when you don’t do the same for every other team in the league. Obviously the Rangers’ winning percentage is going to be lower without those games. But the same is true for everyone else.
As for just how easy the schedule was compared to other teams, that what the “mythical” stat looks at. If you want to stick with “tangible wins and losses,” you can’t only penalize one team’s record if you want to be able to compare it to anything.
you are making this easy.......
…do the same for every other team in the league
While TEX was playing:
MIL -11
FLA -17
HOU -9
HOU -9
OAK was playing:
SF +16
CHC -18
STL +9
CIN +21
OAK won 1 of 3 in Chicago and was 1-8 against MUCH, MUCH, MUCH better opponents… so, yes, it IS fair to exclude the NL games when assessing this team.
drop the NL schedule, and TEX is 61-58 with OAK at 60-59.
take away June = take away a ridiculously favorable interleague draw, and this team is average and in jeopardy of not making the playoffs – validating what DJCahill said that you thought was so stupid.
you’re the one that’s looking stupid now. even gdawg dropped out of this losing fight. want to keep going???
i’m actually sad you made me look at this. i feel worse and worse about the team the more you say beating minor league teams isn’t relevant.
thanks for ruining my day…
by sam in so cal on Sep 7, 2010 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
they have been a .500 team except for 1/5th of the year
that is true, but why ignore the best part of the year? it happened and the Rangers played really well then
It's Time.
by Jason Brynsvold on Sep 7, 2010 10:27 AM CDT up reply actions
Why believe
1 month against the dregs of the NL and teams like Seattle is representative of how the team is all year.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
I understand that that is how baseball is
and a lot of teams have made the playoffs with one good month and a weak division.
But let’s not pretend that June is the accurate portrayal of this team.
Better a 500 team with one good month than the 500 team with one bad month we have seen in the past.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
Lets also not pretend
like thats a reason to say that this team is a .500 team
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
all they need is one more good month to win a championship
if they have a good october say, 11-4, then we’re world champions (that’s a 3-1 Division series, a 4-2 ALCS, and a 4-3 World Series)
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
AWESOME!
any chance PIT, MIL, FLA and HOU are available???
oh wait… they are at home b/c they are 82 games below .500
fuck!!! what now???
by sam in so cal on Sep 7, 2010 10:57 AM CDT up reply actions
we'll just have to
win the whole fucking thing!
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
I agree.
It is probably more accurate that the other 4 months where they weren’t 21-6 are an indicator of what kind of team they really are. That’s not negativity, it’s just reality. They had a great June. Thank God they did or they’d be in a pretty precarious situation right now instead of a mildly alarming situation.
"Ok, post your favorite moment of the Tom Hicks era
Mine is today when he sold the team." - t ball
A .500 run to finish the season
is asking a lot from this current bunch.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
Not if
Lee, Wilson and Lewis can pitch like they seem to be capable of.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
Lewis is terrible right now....did pkid
really say that he’s been our best pitcher this year…better than CJ?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
what part of
“seem to be capable of” do you not get you fucktard?
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
How many successful years has Cobra
had in The Show?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
He's not good
because if he was, some team would have given him more than 3 million per year for 2 years.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Cobra is still a work in progress
and we’re trying to figure out what he is.
His agent isn’t very good at what he does.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
You are basing this on
2 bad starts?
or the fact that his record is 9-12…. Of course there was that game where he went 9 innings, gave up 3 hits, walked 1, struck out 10, and DIDN"T GET A DECISION…..
You like to spout quality starts, he’s had 16 of them this year, and has gone 7-5 with 4 no decisions in those 16 starts.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
I don't spout off about Quality Starts, dumbass.
Cobra is staggering to the finish line right now…we’ll have a better handle on what he is in three weeks.
I consider him to be a decent #3 who can probably be counted on to soak up some innings but I wanna see how he finishes.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
Oh, that must have been a different
Josey Wales bot.
not to mention that every ranger starter has struggled over the past month (even Wilson has had a bad last start, though he was god before that).
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
STOP THAT
damn… I’m not supposed to agree with Trevor here.
anyway, yes, they aren’t a deep team, that’s for sure. Andres Blanco, Chrstian Guzman, Alex Cora, Jeff Franceour, He-who-shall-not-be-named, Jorge Cantu is not a good bench.
welcome Esteban German!!! come save us from the doldrums.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
Andres Blanco is a pretty good bench player
it’s just that he’s been called on to be the 2nd baseman pretty much of the season since a certain player can’t stay off the DL.
Go Rice Owls!
Yep
next offseason, hopefully JD can address the positional problem, and can find a way to add a player that is young, healthy and can hit. Folks were saying before that it was always easier to add position players than pitching, well, JD gets to test out that hypothesis.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
Oddly
I’ve always disagreed with the premise that it is easier to add position players than pitching. Pitching is a lot of luck, and luck works both ways – the Rangers had had a long stretch of bad luck on the mound, but this year their luck has worked the other way (I mean, CJ AND Colby being good? Wow…)
Position players are far more predictable, which means you’re far less likely to see a weak prospect guy like Moreland have a better career than a good prospect guy like Justin Smoak (this is why I still think it was a huge mistake to trade him).
This team has made a conscious decision the last 5 years to invest heavily in pitchers to maximize the luck part of the equation. Which is fine. But there is a big problem with offense in the organization.
Go Rice Owls!
Yep,
long term this team has huge concerns on the offensive side of the ball. The fact that they have added a bunch of all glove no hit guys makes it even tougher for the offense to over come injuries.
Trying to improve pitching and defense is a good thing, but I think the Rangers are proving there is no free lunch out there. It’s tough to add pitching and defense without subtracting offense.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
I think the problem is Washington
and not Washington in the dugout. Washingtons on the field. Joaquin Arias, Andres Blanco, Chrstian Guzman, Alex Cora. we shouldn’t have had to have 4 different backup infielders. This isn’t an indictment of Daniels, well, it is actually. He hasn’t really stood up to Washington and said, “Play the team I’m giving you, and stop fucking around with scrubs simply because they remind you of yourself”. Arias started 5 too many games at first. Why pick up Alex Cora and then dump him 5 games later. we actually gave up people to get Christian Guzman?
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
Arias is no longer here
and hasn’t been an issue for a while. Guzman was traded for when Kinsler was hurt with the idea to give some better than replacement performance while Kinsler was out. Blanco has been the utility IF all year. Cora was picked up when they got rid of Arias since Blanco was playing in the field everyday and the team still needed a back-up IF while Kinsler was gone. Now with roster expansions, you can carry how many ever back-up IFs you want.
The back-up IFs aren’t why this team has been losing.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
It has to be an indictment of JD
I’m willing to give him a little bit of a pass on last offseason, given the bankruptcy and all, but we really need to see more roster building going forward.
When you have age and injury potential, it is that much more important to get usable bench players.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
the fact he got together a team that could do as well as it has
when you emerge from bankruptcy after the trade deadline of that same year… it is hard to blame JD for anything.
Go Rice Owls!
JD had a very good off-season, made a nice move
with Treanor but the rest of his in-season moves have stunk.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
well, what do you expect?
the team had to try to do something and they had no money. It wasn’t as if they could just eat people’s expensive but good players easily.
JD overpaid for Cliff Lee, a player who the team probably didn’t need. But that move has been widely acclaimed as expert maneuvering by everyone but me. The other moves addressed weaknesses as well as he possibly could.
Oh, and he got more than a bucket of balls back for Saltalasuckia.
Go Rice Owls!
you have to have a lot of backup 2b
when you’re starting 2b is on the DL once every couple of months.
Go Rice Owls!
not really
you just need one.
you don’t need a back up for the back up. and a back up for the back up for the back up.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
I hope this wasn't meant as an excuse.
Injuries are a part of the game. You either overcome them or you don’t. JD did his damndest to give us depth at a time where we were hard pressed to do that. Seems like when he was wheeling and dealing, everyone was praising him for “adding depth”. Now all of a sudden, since the players we acquired haven’t been producing, we don’t have any depth.
Happy birthday to Kenny. Happy birthday to you.
Agree
They need to go out and win. The must frustrating thing is that this team isn’t just not-winning, they are giving away games with stupid mental errors and horrible pitching. Lots of walks at bad times. Advancing runners. Grounding into rally killing double plays.
They are playing terribly right now.
I think when you are talking about a fatigued Vlad and Young
and then having no Kinsler or Cruz, that’s more than just “Good teams win despite injuries” and all that nonsense. Losing Hamilton hurts a hell of a lot, but the team still has more than enough firepower to win on any given night.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
x
It may be oversimplifying it, sure, but you are right: this team absolutely has the capability of dominating any game on any given night, even if Hamilton is out of the lineup. They simply have not been doing that. It’s because they have hit badly, pitched badly and fielded worse.
Ever since the Cliff Lee win in Oakland on August 6,
the Rangers have allowed more runs than any other team in the AL on our way to an 11-17 record.
We’re playing really bad baseball at the wrong time of year and what’s also disturbing is that this is an earmark of a Ron Washington team. We skidded to a 19-29 finish in ’08 and an 8-15 finish in ’09.
It’s not time to panic but it’s naive to not worry about This Thing.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
ever hear of the term "Floating endpoints"?
That’s where you pick a period of time and make a conclusion based on that time period. its a subset of the concept of picking data to support your conclusion instead of the other way around.
From August 7 through August 19th, the team went 3-9 with a run differential of 43-62
From August 26th through today, the team has gone 3-8 with a run differential of 43-65.
in between they won 5 of 6 and outscored their opponents 26-18.
now, what does that all mean.
ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!!!!!
the reality is that you cannot pick endpoints or specific time regions to support a conclusion. baseball is to semi-random. over any given 10 game stretch a team might go 0-10 or 10-0 and it have no bearing on their overall outcome. to whit: San Diego loses 10 in a row and are still NL West leaders. White Sox won 10 in a row (and just now 7 in a row) and are not AL Central leaders.
Worry all you want Mr Step and a dive. but don’t try and do statistics. you suck at them.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
It's as though the Rangers also thought the AL West was on ice
after the aforementioned Cliff Lee / Oakland game.
After the AS Break, the Rangers came out swinging and put up a 14-7 record and then they started to shit the bed and then the walls.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
And yet
the AL West lead is still 7 games with 3 weeks to play. I guess that shitting the bed wasn’t that bad, (or was it more of the Angels and A’s melting down too.)
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
The A's pythag is at 72-65 but that's consistent with where they
were last year as well (-6).
I don’t watch them enough to know but it would seem like they have had more than than their share of bad luck.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
well
The Rangers Opposing Hitters EQA is the lowest in baseball tied with the Reds (coincidentally, also a division leader). Their Opposing Pitchers EQA, however, is the highest in their division and higher than anyone in the AL East too.
Which makes sense. The other teams in the AL West have horrible offenses and good pitching staffs.
Actually, the Rangers pitching has been on par with the Yankees, and our hittting is by a huge margin the best in the division, and behind only the Twins and the 3 AL East juggernaughts…..
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
Fish around for the stat makes you feel best
but I’ll prioritize the very simple runs allowed over the last 28 games when trying to formulate an opinion on how we’re going to do the rest of the season.
Let me know when Opposing Hitters EQA shows up on the scoreboard, dumbass.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
What about their
runs allowed in the last 29 games (only one more) or the last 30 games (still just one more).
more importantly, how about runs scored in those 28 (or 29, or 30) games? really, the cliche is that pitching wins championships, but ya gotta hit too.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
And the A's have scored only 4 fewer runs than the Rangers
since August 6.
The A’s are 14-15 with a run differential of 108/96.
The Rangers are 11-17 with a run differential of 112/144.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
What does August 6 have to do with anything?
Is it because Lyndon B. Johnson signed the Voting Rights Act of 1965?
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
But
if you go August 6th through September 2
The A’s are 11-14 with a run differential of 87-86
and the Rangers are 11-13 with a run differential of 98-115
There was nothing magical about August 6th. so get off of it.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
No, I'm not gonna get off it...what I've surmised
is that from the outside, the Rangers seemed to have collectively believed the race in the AL West was over after Cliff Lee shut them down.
The Rangers were very good after the AS Break up until that game (14-7) and have been shit (11-17, worst pitching in AL) since then.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
"....after Cliff Lee shut down the A's."
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
If they had thought that
they’d probably have been right.
Even though we just got swept and lost 4 in a row, we’re still 7 games up on them, with 13 games left with seattle and LA still to go.
The only team in either first or second place we play besides Oakland from here on out is New York.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
yes
and I swear, if I have to see one more post game thread whining about how unlucky the Rangers are. Luck, luck, luck, luck, luck. Don’t blame poor X, he was just unlucky!
Give me a break. This team is awful from top to bottom – really only one or two players have played decently the last few weeks, and one of them ran himself into a wall. Luck affects both sides of the equation, just like injuries.
Go Rice Owls!
Awful may be a stretch
mediocre seems more like it.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
I have an undying respect for the boys in Vegas who come up
with over/unders and they had Texas pegged at 84 wins before the season.
Those sumbitches are right a lot more than they’re wrong.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
Unless you're going for a broader wisdom-of-crowds point here,
this seems like a misinterpretation of how O/Us work.
It is a misinterpretation
and one that he always says.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
We're not talking to the media here though
Its just funny because this was brought up before the season started and Josey still tries using O/U lines the same way people use PECOTA projections.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
The Vegas over / unders are nothing more than information
but it’s also something I take seriously when forming an opinion on how a certain team is going to do.
It appears that …we are who they thought we were.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
The Vegas lines are made
to make sure that Vegas makes money off of bets. Like Closure GT said, unless you think there’s something to the large and random group of people placing bets, the Vegas lines are irrelevant.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
And if Vegas doesn't come up with the perfect number
to get equal bets on both sides, there are people out there as smart as they are who will make a fortune going on one side or the other.
To say the number is irrelevant speaks to how naive you are.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
Oh, so it's not a wisdom of the crowds thing,
but basically the opposite. There’s some elite group of super-genius-predictors who will punish Vegas if they ever get an O/U wrong. Sigh.
Bad news for Vegas, cause they’re going to get killed on Seattle and Texas, among others, this year!
heh
I’d say PECOTA projections are crap as well…
Though at least their purpose is in line with what people are using them for. Vegas lines are never meant to be predictive.
Go Rice Owls!
yep
I’m not the biggest fan of projections, but they’re there for a reason. To try and predict how teams and players will do based on something other than how to make the most money.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
PECOTA predictions
are ok for individual players, but any kind of team projection makes assumptions that cannot be anywhere near perfect.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
Over on 84 looked like a lock a month ago
but now it’s gonna be a white knuckler.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
you know
I keep seeing this kind of Knee Jerking going on.
we got swept by the Twins. back in August we got swept by the Rays.
Its not like we’ve been swept at home by the Orioles (as happened before the ASB).
oh, and back in May, we got swept by the Yankees.
Take a chill pill people.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
We've had the worst pitching in the AL for nearly a
month and just lost the MVP of the league and Tiny E.
We’re 0-4 at Toronto and have 3 more games with them and neither CJ nor Cliff are taking the hill.
And then here come the Motherfucking Yankees who are dropping the hammer on the AL East (14-6).
It’s not a knee-jerk, it’s a legitimate concern.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
uh
Marcum
Repwhatever…
Shawn Hill.
we’ll be fine.
Even if we lose all 6 games and the A’s win their next 6 games we won’t lose the lead.
but that’s not going to happen either. We have the Yankees at home, and are gonna run probably Wilson, Lee and Lewis against them. That should be a fun weekend (for us, not the Yankees).
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
If I had to guess what the Rangers are going to do
in their next 8 games, I’d say 3-5 would be quite optimistic.
Given that the A’s have 5 games at home with the M’s & Bosox and a 3 game roadie in KC, I’d say 6-2 is very realistic.
That would make the Ranger lead 4 games before heading west for 10 more games.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
Assuming the Yankees sweep us at home
is probably a bad idea.
And 2 home games against a Detroit squad that is probably w/o Miguel Cabrera….. I’m looking at 5-3 pessimistically.
And though the A’s miss King Felix and no one else seems to be able to pitch on the M’s, the Red Sox are in a MUST WIN situation so I wouldn’t count on them just rolling over for the A’s.
And, even if what you say happens, then the Rangers get Seattle and LA for 6 while the A’s get to visit sunny Minneapolis for 3 straight snow days before coming home to face a pretty worriesome White Sox team.
That 4 game lead could turn back into 10 games in a hurry there. Of course then we play them (in Oakland) and then they get the Angels and Mariners while we also get the Angels and Mariners.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
You're looking at 5-3!?!??!
I have the Rangers winning one of the next three v Toronto and one of three v the MF Yankees and splitting with the Tigers.
Cliff & CJ are pitching only 2 of the next 8 games and we don’t have the MVP or Tiny E.
After the last Detroit game, it will be time to reassess where we are. What should not be pooh-poohed is that we have yet to play this season with any real nuts in a vise pressure (like what the Padres are now facing).
5-3!??!?! For all your statistical formula bullshit, you’re nothing but a mindless cheerleader at heart.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
Cheerleader yes
mindless no.
We could win 2 of the next 3 from Toronto (Repsomething and Shawn Hill?) and taking 2 of 3 from the Yankees at home is certainly possible. Not to mention sweeping a very out of it Detroit team at home. though I wasn’t counting on all of that, I was assuming that we’d split the next 6 games, then sweep Detroit.
get your head out of the oven dude….
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
Hmmmm, the Rangers are a combined 2-10
v the BJ’s and Yankees this year and you have the Rangers going 4-2.
….and the Tigers have won 12 of their last 22 (so they haven’t quit either).
You’re a mindless cheerleader.
Take 3-5 and be happy.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
12 of their last 22!!!
OMFG!!!!!!!!! FEAR THE TIGERS!!!!! AAAAAAAAAA!!!!! (ok, that was sarcasm).
Yes, 2-10 against the BlewIt Jays and the Skanks. but we did split with the Yanks at home and the 3 game sweep was at New York IN APRIL! (not sure that Feldman and Harden will be facing Burnett and Pettitte again this time around, but I’m looking forward to a CJ vs CC game).
Going back to the Tigers, you did it again. What was so magical about August 14th? the fact that they were still 10.5 games back? how about we go back a bit further, like to the ASB, when they were only 1 game out, and 48-39. since then they are 20-31 and now 13 games behind the Twinkies. Yeah, they have something to play for. And those 12 games. 1 against the Twins, 2 against Toronto, 2 against the White Sox, 4 against KC, and 3 gainst the Indians. Oh, and they beat the Yankees in the Bronx!!!!. (almost missed that one). looks like Max Scherzer has won 3 of those games, hopefully we won’t face him…..
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
The Tigers are what they are...
pretty much a .500 team but their very recent history suggests they haven’t quit.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
They're 13.5 games out
if they haven’t quit, then someone in Detroit has a real problem.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
If they're 12-10 in their last 22 games
they haven’t quit.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
13-10 in their last 23 games
5-7 over their last 12
10-7 over their last 17
10-10 over their last 20 games.
We can play this game all day. but who gives a fuck. they’re 13 games out. (not 13.5 like I said earlier) and they’re NOT trying to win the AL Central anymore.
Though they are still actually playing baseball games there, I suppose.
Doing some quick looking ahead, I think we’ll miss Max Scherzer and Verlander. I’m guessing it will be Bonderman and Porcello in the series. on our side, who the fuck knows, as we still have to see when Lee comes back and how that works. Assuming that Lee is still out and we are rolling Lewis, Wilson, Hunter, Holland, Feldman (or Kirkman or Harrison or Beltre or somebody up from AAA), then that unknown person will pitch the first game against Detroit followed by Lewis.
Acutally, skipping Lee allows us to have a rotation of Lee, Lewis, Wilson, Hunter, Holland, which seems to be the best rotation of the year (assuming health and effectiveness).
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
Just because they're 13.5 games out
doesn’t necessarily mean they’ve given up.
And if you’re going to write a post that long, make it interesting.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
If you're going to write a post make it interesting
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
SEA was 85 IIRC, LAA 84 OAK 74
right on TEX, wrong on the other 3
brilliant. i wish i could be right 25% of the time and have some guy citing me as a source
by sam in so cal on Sep 7, 2010 11:00 AM CDT up reply actions
If you look at the stats from the last 30 days
outside of CJ Wilson and Josh Hamilton (and a few others like O’Day, Murphy, and Moreland) pretty much this team has pretty brutal numbers.
Go Rice Owls!
MIN has been without one of their best players...
NYY has holes everywhere (and not just a-holes). They’ve had Tex in and out A-rod in and out, a couple of pitchers missing starts…
Texas is, without a doubt, a distant fourth behind these three. Looking at the team’s performance against teams with winning records: NYY +7, TB +7, MIN +4, TEX -8
ESPN RPI: NYY #1, TB #2, MIN #3 and Texas #14. Say what you want about this ranking, but it’s not completely without credibility since it looks at strength of schedule and ExWL/ExWP
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/rpi
If you have the 23rd strongest schedule (8th easiest in MLB, 2nd easiest in AL), you are going to win some games. Texas’ best run came against it’s weakest opponents (there was not an easier NL schedule).
The most frustrating part of the downfall came Friday when the Rangers at full strength with their 2nd or 3rd best pitcher lost – managing only four hits against a guy that was released after the game.
by sam in so cal on Sep 7, 2010 10:06 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yankees have holes?
I don’t think so. Teixeira in and out? he’s got 600+ Pa’s. and even with his early season struggles has a .882 OPS. Posada’s been out of it mostly, but he’s still at .849 OPS.
Jeter is sucking this year. Francisco Cervelli (Posada’s replacement) sucks badly.
But Marcus Thames has a .905 OPS, and Granderson is up to .770 now, and really, only one of their starters has missed extended time, and that’s Pettitte. they’ve skipped Hughes a few times, and pulled Vazquez in and out of the rotation (because he’s sucked).
No, I don’t think the Yankees are unbeatable, but they’ve been pretty damn healthy.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
replacement level players
this team has rolled with as many as 4 replacement level players in the lineup. It’s not very realistic to expect any team to win much with that…
by elvis1isking on Sep 7, 2010 10:28 AM CDT up reply actions
It especially hurts
because even when healthy, you realistically only have 5 guys really moving the offense. Take one or two of them out and replace them with a replacement level player, and it gets ugly quick.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
not all that uncommon
for teams with this payroll level.
No doubt the team needs its best players to be playing their best, but we knew that going into the season.
The injuries have hurt the team’s results, but it isn’t like this shouldn’t have been an expected result given the level of players we’ve been forced to play.
My hope is that the guys that make this team go find their best before the playoffs start.
by elvis1isking on Sep 7, 2010 10:40 AM CDT up reply actions
Elvis really isn't much of a loss with the way Blanco has hit of late.
I don’t always have sex with men…but when I do, I prefer Josh Hamilton. - AJM
by LSJ on Sep 7, 2010 9:50 AM CDT up reply actions
Its true though
Love me some Elvis and he gives you better defense at SS, but Blanco is on a great streak right now.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Ever since Cliff Lee beat Oakland at their place in early
August, I thought the AL West was on ice….not officially … there was still a little more golf to play but for all intents and purposes when you’re up by more games than there are weeks left in the season, you’re probably going to win your division.
The number I believe to be undefeated and infallible over a full season is the Bill James Virtual Elimination Number. You take the number of games back squared (Oakland is 7 back) divided by the number of games left by 4 (25 games left).
That means the A’s are currently 49% virtually eliminated (49/100). It’s not official just yet and while I’ll be shocked if the Rangers lose this (it would be historical to cough up a 10 game lead you have in September), I’m not going to be shocked if we have some drama at then end with the lead dwindling to 2-3 games.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
It's the tenth end
The A’s have to get the rock right on the button, but we’ve got blocking stones out front and the hammer.
Also, their sweepers aren’t very good.
by Past A Diving Michael Young on Sep 7, 2010 10:06 AM CDT up reply actions
I would be.
The Rangers losing streak would have to extend a while and one of the A’s or Angels would actually have to start winning games. something neither has shown any real interest in doing.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
The A's shit the walls v a red hot MF Yankees team last week but before and since
that they won a series with the BJs, split with the Rays, went on the road and won two series v Cleveland/Texas, came home to win a series v the Angels and won the first game v the M’s yesterday.
In their last 16 games when not playing the Yankees, they’re 11-5.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
Why stop there?
If you look at their last 24 games the A’s are 11-0 in games they didn’t lose..
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
by WyoRanger on Sep 7, 2010 10:34 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
You can attempt to muddy the water up all you want
but the A’s are playing fairly well right now as long as they don’t have to face the Yankees.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
And
on August 13, the A’s were in Minnesota and GOT SWEPT
just like us. awwwwwww….. then, they faced Toronto, AND LOST THE FIRST GAME of that series. just like us.
so, since August first, they are 16-17 except that they are 16-10 when NOT playing the Yankees or Twins at home. oooooooh. aaaaaah…
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
I'm BP Amoco cleaning up this crap you stirred in the water
Being 11-5 when not playing the Yankees is not a season. Nor is winning 11 of their last 24.
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
Point being that they're playing better (recently)
and the Yankee Wall Shitting last week obscures that.
Imagine what the Rangers look like if the Yankees come here and drop a sweep on our azz.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
Shawn Hill is starting on Thursday versus Colby Lewis
This is the next Matt Fox situation. We can’t really lose two of those can we?
Holy shit, Shawn Hill is still alive?
I don’t always have sex with men…but when I do, I prefer Josh Hamilton. - AJM
by LSJ on Sep 7, 2010 9:57 AM CDT up reply actions
Yes we can.
The Rangers love not hitting against scrubs. I don’t know if it’s their innate love of the underdog or that they are just hitting really shitty right now, but they’ll find a way to make him look like Cy Young.
"Ok, post your favorite moment of the Tom Hicks era
Mine is today when he sold the team." - t ball
Wait
is he left handed?
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
Then we're fine.
We only suck against no-name lefties. no name righties we can beat the crap out of. (unless its teh Twins at home, STFU).
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
my one hope
for the playoffs is that the Rangers will actually come to the ballpark thinking about how to approach the game against a great pitcher insetad of whatever nonsense is going through their heads (how many RBIs will I get today?) when they see that Joe AAA Lefty is on the mound.
Go Rice Owls!
Been camping, hunting and fishing all weekend so no internet (not even cell phone coverage)
Anything happen while I was gone?
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
Didn't watch much this weekend either....beautful weather here and did a lot of family stuff...
watched just enough to see that MY play at 3b to end the game….that was enough to send me into hysterics….
Ball....toss.....antlers....
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Sep 7, 2010 10:01 AM CDT up reply actions
I slept through every game this weekend
It was glorious.
I don’t always have sex with men…but when I do, I prefer Josh Hamilton. - AJM
California
I keep vampire hours. It’s a bit of a vice, really.
I don’t always have sex with men…but when I do, I prefer Josh Hamilton. - AJM
One thing that drives me crazy is the "we only have to play .500 baseball"...
that’s backing into the playoffs instead of charging into them….where is the boot on the throat mentality for this team?
Sorry…just ranting……….
Ball....toss.....antlers....
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Sep 7, 2010 10:06 AM CDT reply actions
Have we heard that from anybody on the team?
That’s the media talking.
by Past A Diving Michael Young on Sep 7, 2010 10:07 AM CDT up reply actions
No...it's on this board, too....
Ball....toss.....antlers....
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Sep 7, 2010 10:09 AM CDT up reply actions
That's true.
My point is that nobody on the team is espousing this point of view, at least not publicly.
by Past A Diving Michael Young on Sep 7, 2010 10:13 AM CDT up reply actions
I've said that line a dozen times
but more as an argument for why the Rangers are not going to fall behind Oakland despite playing badly as opposed to a legitimate strategy.
Just look at the standings now after the last week or so of games. The Rangers have gone 3-7 and are still 7 games up on the A’s.
But as a team strategy – that’s obviosuly stupid.
Go Rice Owls!
Fair enough...perhaps I'm taking it out of context when I read it...
Ball....toss.....antlers....
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Sep 7, 2010 10:37 AM CDT up reply actions
Actually, yes they are
(ignoring the 5 games in september)
their July and August combined record is 27-28
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
Get used to it.
It ain’t the Yankees. The only reason this team will make the playoffs is because of the AL West. It’s been that way all year long. There will probably be teams not making the playoffs who have better records.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
I really don't think this team has a "boot in the throat" mentality
They’re too fixated on keeping the clubhouse a happy-go-lucky lollipops and rainbow land to get that kind of motivated.
Of course, I really don’t think that has much to do with them winning or losing baseball games one way or the other.
I don’t always have sex with men…but when I do, I prefer Josh Hamilton. - AJM
I apologize if this was covered in the GDT yesterday
Did anyone comment on what an arrogant prick Wash sounded like on the manager’s show with Nadel yesterday?
I usually listen for a few laughs, just to see how he mangles the English language that day. But at the end of yesterday’s installment, Nadel asked him about the old timers game in MIN. Wash took this opportunity to suck his own dick for getting a couple of shitty singles in an exhibition. He stated that his performance showed his players that as long as you prepare and put your mind to it, you can accomplish anything.
If I was Nadel, I would have asked Wash if he thinks any of his players have ever looked up “Ron Washington” on Baseball-Reference.com just to see how awesome he was back in his prime.
"Don't confuse the outcome that a decision produces with the intelligence that went into making that decision."--Tony LaRussa
Ha. Fair enough.
I guarantee he’s recited that stat a few dozen times before. At least the batting avg part. I don’t think he knows what OBP stands for.
"Don't confuse the outcome that a decision produces with the intelligence that went into making that decision."--Tony LaRussa
The '77 numbers Wash put up with the Dodgers
came in 20 plate appearances and made such an impression on the rest of MLB that his ass didn’t come back up to The Show until 1981.
Ron Washington was the Esteban German of his day.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
Esteban German is a lot fucking better than he was.
He was more like the Joaquin Arias of his day.
I don’t always have sex with men…but when I do, I prefer Josh Hamilton. - AJM
Agreed
I used to think Wash was an idiot, but a good guy who I could root for to succeed. Then after his first season as manager of the team (77-85 record, I think) he was asked to give himself a letter grade evaluating his performance. He gave himself an A.
So, then I realized he was an arrogant, unlikable idiot
"Don't confuse the outcome that a decision produces with the intelligence that went into making that decision."--Tony LaRussa
I'm a Dodger fan and loved that '77 team. My last sports cry
came when Reggie Jax went yard three times in Game 6.
5 future major league managers played on the ’77 Dodgers – Oates, Old School Brutha, Bill Russell, Dave Lopes, Dusty.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
LOL. Well, I knew it was a small sample size........
…….because I had looked at his stats a few weeks ago.
"Don't confuse the outcome that a decision produces with the intelligence that went into making that decision."--Tony LaRussa
You take time out of your day
to evaluate Ron Washington’s English.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Sep 7, 2010 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions
The Twins fan trolling over there is an idiot.
by Past A Diving Michael Young on Sep 7, 2010 10:27 AM CDT up reply actions
I haven't really been around for the past few days
and haven’t been able to watch most of the Rangers games. I’m sure this has been talked about already, but do the Rangers have the option of playing that game under protest? This sure seems like a time when an understanding of the rule is at question.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Only thing I've heard...
….is JD was going to contact the league for “clarification” on the rule. Not sure what happened.
We haven't heard official word on it (other than JD asking for "clarification" of the rule)
but I would imagine that any protest would be rejected, since this was clearly a judgment call and those cannot be protested by rule.
by Past A Diving Michael Young on Sep 7, 2010 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions
I guess the first thing that would come up for debate
is whether or not the umpire knew the rule. I’d like to see that umpire try and defend his decision that Anderson made contact with Young AND that the contact assisted the runner, which would be impossible for him to do unless he’s got the best peripheral vision in the world. The umpire had to have thought that the rule was any incidental contact.
On a side note, I’m really glad I didn’t see that live.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
I was so mad that I couldn't even show my anger.
I just stared at the TV. I’m pretty sure I dropped my beer, too. My wife was worried.
by Past A Diving Michael Young on Sep 7, 2010 10:47 AM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, it was a visual kick to the sack.
A shitty day that looked like it might end well and then it ends shitty anyway because of a call that was so clearly wrong that you have to question whether the ump was maliciously motivated or just really, really stupid. I’m guessing it’s the latter, of course, but the end result is a giant kick to an already bruised and badly throbbing sack.
"Ok, post your favorite moment of the Tom Hicks era
Mine is today when he sold the team." - t ball
Heh
Was the ump on Team Evil or Team Stupid?
by Past A Diving Michael Young on Sep 7, 2010 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions
Team Evil has the thinnest head I've ever seen.
I don’t always have sex with men…but when I do, I prefer Josh Hamilton. - AJM
RT @Evan_P_Grant If you plan to join me at Chuy's on McKinney tonight at 5:30 (or later) to watch #Rangers, please respond (again). Trying to give head count
Take away count, and it’s a Craigslist ad.
Fuck, I need to get some sleep.
by dolphinpuncher on Sep 7, 2010 10:19 AM CDT via mobile reply actions 1 recs
wow
Bad Mexican food + Scott Feldman pitching? I’m really kicking myself for not living nearby to attend this event.
Go Rice Owls!
+1
I just went to the Chuy’s in Round Rock last night. They give you free chips and queso while you wait for your table. And Chuy’s is one of the last few restaurants to use cheddar cheese instead of American in their cheese enchiladas. Chuy’s is great.
Superman wears Josh Hamilton pajamas.
I didn't think (that part of) Teagarden's play was bad.
The hitter (can’t remember who it was) got out of the box really late. Had he been running as soon as the ball got past Teagarden, there’s not a chance to get him at first. It would’ve been close as it was. Teagarden was chasing the ball with his back to the field so he had no way to know the hitter got such a late break to first.
Sure you can fault him with not blocking the ball in the first place, but I wouldn’t call the decision to try to get the guy coming home a mental error.
by UserToBeNamedLater on Sep 7, 2010 10:41 AM CDT reply actions
I'm tired...
of all the complaining and worrying about this team. I’m going to take a new approach to the last month of the season. I’m not going to get caught up in every loss or frustrating moment now.
However this team finishes is fine by me as long as two things happen. First obviously is they hold onto the West, which I think is pretty much assured anyway. Secondly is the team gets healthy.
This team hasn’t been to the playoffs in 11 years, I’ll be happy with that. Do I want to see them go as far as possible, of course. And I still think they can go far in the playoffs if everyone is healthy, but that seems like a big if right now. The big divisional lead the Rangers have had along with the in season deals made me alter my expectations, I’m changing that back to what they were before the season started.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
If this team made the playoffs
and didn’t trade for Cliff Lee, that would have been an excellent year.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
True...
as it is though, it’s still a very good year. Hard to say otherwise if this team makes the playoffs, since it has been so long.
I know most here liked the Lee move, and I understand the move. It’s not JD’s fault the guy has come over and struggled a little. But I didn’t like giving up Smoak for a rental. And although Smoak having a down year makes it sting a little less, I think it’s a move that could still come back to bite this team in the ass down the road.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
Well, that's a move you make, IF there's ever a move to be made.
It’s easy to argue against trading top notch talent. But knowing two things: A) this team needed a bonafide Ace to be able to WIN in the playoffs and B) the 1st baseman we were giving up wasn’t performing up to par for THIS year and with ownership resolved (hopefully) we could BUY a 1st baseman that could in the offseason – it takes the sting away as well.
Cliff gets hurt, or sucks or we don’t make the playoffs or lose in the first round again, and we all look back and say “shouldn’t have made that move.” Or Smoak terrorizes us in the future and Cliff signs with the Yankees beating us in future playoff series…But that’s hindsight. As of now, the move was the right one to make. And there’s a chance that Smoak doesn’t terrorize us – or that we win the World Series – and/or sign Lee to an extension and he dominates for us for years to come.
"Look at our current situation with that camel f$%ker over in Iraq. Pacifism is not something to hide behind."
by Walter Sobchak on Sep 7, 2010 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions
Actually
if Lee sucks the rest of the year, maybe the Yankees don’t try and sign him and we can keep him for less money.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
you're even more optimistic than I am
it makes me sick
"Look at our current situation with that camel f$%ker over in Iraq. Pacifism is not something to hide behind."
by Walter Sobchak on Sep 7, 2010 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions
yeah
because winning is so overrated.
I wanted to see Scott Feldman start against CC Sabathia in the first game of the ALDS
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
that's a silly comment
Saying it was going to be Feldman starting game one if the team didn’t have Lee is completely asinine.
This team already has two strong pitchers at the top of the rotation – Wilson and Lewis. Lee gives them three, which in theory should make them competitive in just about any playoff series.
The acquisition of Lee basically meant that instead of going Lewis/Wilson/Hunter in the playoffs, they get to go Lee/Lewis/Wilson, which doesn’t really change their probabilities of winning game 1 and 2 by much, but it does increase their odds of winning game 3 by quite a bit.
Which is great and all, but now you’re talking about trading 5 years of a guy who had a reasonable shot of making 1b a position the team wasn’t going to need to worry about for half a decade for a pitcher who is going to boost the chance of winning game 3 of the playoffs from 40% to 60%.
Go Rice Owls!
not a silly comment
a sarcastic one.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
that is some strange sarcasm
That’s like me saying that I don’t like the Lee trade because now Wash will end up pinch hitting Chris Davis for Josh Hamilton because they don’t have Smoak.
Go Rice Owls!
Think back
who was our openning day starter?
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
If you really must know
but first the link to the boxscore
Salty caught for us in his only appearance and had the game winning hit.
Andres Blanco was our second baseman, as it has been for much of the season. Chris Davis played first base.
For Toronto, they had Jose Bautista leading off and playing right field. and no, he didn’t homer.
In fact, it was Feldman vs Marcum on openning day, just like tonight apparantly. maybe we can bring up Davis and offer to borrow Salty from the Red Sox, but only if they have Bautista lead off again. :)
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
I'm very much on record
from the very start that Cliff Lee was a pitcher the Rangers didn’t need and Justin Smoak is a player the Rangers should never have given up.
I swear if anyone accuses me of hindsight, I have dozens of posts with angry GoET responses ready to back me up
Go Rice Owls!
let me say this on the record.
you are an idiot.
yes, Lee was the guy we needed. he was, and still is, the best pitcher in baseball.
He’s the guy we want facing CC or David Price in game one of the Division series. Not Colby, not CJ, not Feldman or Holland or Harden, but Cliff fucking Lee.
If Lee signs with the Yankees and Smoak hits 50 home runs next year, its STILL a good move.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
Since I'm planning on being a Rangers fan
for more than just 2010, I think considering the long-term health of the organization is appropriate when considering whether or not a trade is good.
Go Rice Owls!
and how much long term good
would it do this organization to win a championship? How much would it improve not only next years attendance, but in years to come.
How much media play will we get if we trounce the Yankees in the first round of the playoffs? Is it possible that maybe some sports casters MIGHT (and i stress might) post Rangers Playoff Victories over Cowboy’s regular season trade rumors?
I’ve lived in North Texas since 1973 and I only became aware of the Rangers in 1985 (before that I was a Phillie fan because I was from Philadelphia). But I was a Cowboys fan from the moment I got here because I got here and they won championships while there wasn’t even a Rangers team here. And when the team got here it was a joke.
Actually you all have Bobby Valentine to thank for my interest in the Rangers.
The point is that Flags fly forever and a postseason series win for the Rangers would be huge for the future of Baseball in North Central Texas. So much so that some here would have traded Martin Perez for Cliff Lee (or even Roy Oswalt!!!!!!) I’m not one of them but I understand the argument. Trading Smoak for Lee when it looks like Moreland may be an answer and even if he is, a first baseman is a lot more easily found than a world series ring.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
I agree with some of these points.
But I don’t believe Cliff Lee makes the Rangers likely to win the AL, let alone likely to win the World Series. He just makes them less unlikely.
If you could show me strong evidence the Rangers do, in fact, become likely to win the pennant, or even merely becoming strong favorites in the playoffs, then I’d change my tune.
Absent that, it would have taken either the team having legitimate belief that Smoak wasn’t going to amount to anything. Merely making the team better in the short term is nice, but it’s not necessarily the end all. You’re an idiot if you say it was absolutely a bad trade with no potential to work out, but you don’t have to be an idiot to be against it.
There is no strong evidence of these things
there is no evidence that says any of those things. However, according to his FIP (that’s fielding independent Pitching), Lee has been worth 2.1 WAR since the trade.
According to Fangraphs, Smoak (hitting .159/.169/.270 since the trade and playing very bad defense) has been worth -0.8 WAR.
so, in the short term, we’re looking at a 3 win difference, which is the difference between a 7 game lead and a 4 game lead. (with a bunch of assumptions along the way, like we’d get replacement level performance from the pitchers that Lee replaced, and that we’ve only gotten replacement level performance from those first baseman that have filled in the 65 plate appearences that Smoak has had for the Mariners.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
I think when I originally argued against the trade, 3-4 more wins with Lee than without him is exactly what I expected.
Again, I’m not arguing it was definitely a bad trade. I’m arguing it’s not stupid to be against it.
Sadly
I don’t think Lee has been worth a single more win than going with Feldman.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
I dunno about that
Lee’s been worth 2.1 WAR just as a Ranger, Feldman only has 1.0 WAR for the entire season.
I don’t always have sex with men…but when I do, I prefer Josh Hamilton. - AJM
by LSJ on Sep 8, 2010 9:36 AM CDT up reply actions
Who gives a shit about WAR in this context?
Cliff Lee has had 11 starts as a Ranger. That is an undeniable fact.
The Rangers have lost 8 of those starts. That is an undeniable fact.
In order to say Feldman would have been worse, you would have to argue that they would have lost 9 or more of those starts. Given how bad Lee has been of late, I’m not sure that Feldman wouldn’t have won one of the recent games.
As far as the games Lee lost while Pitching good, WAR gives him points for that, but regardless of how much crappier Feldman would have pitched, he still would have lost the game. Having Lee instead of Feldman for those losses didn’t make the Rangers any better.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
So,
I guess you do want to break it down start by start. ok here goes:
Start number 1: July 10, Lee goes the distance against the Orioles but loses 6-1.
with Feldman starting, we probably still lose, but the chances of him pitching a complete game are exceedingly small. advantage Lee.
Start number 2: July 17. Lee goes 9, giving up 2 runs on 6 hits, 1 walk 6 k’s but Lackey only gives up 2 runs in 7 and the Rangers ultimately lose in 11 innings on a walk-off Sac fly by Youkilis. The bullpen ends up pitching an inning and a third. With Feldman pitching we lose in 9, if we’re really really lucky, the pen only has to go 1 and a third, but since Feldman is really a 6 inning pitcher, I think it would go 2 innings instead. minimal gain for Lee. (note that the Sox did have to use their closer Papelbon for 2 innings in the game where he would probably have only needed to pitch one if Feldman starts. so another advantage Lee.)
Start number 3: July 22, Angels, Lee beats Weaver, pitches 8.1 innings, with Feliz getting the last 2 outs for the save. Feldman loses this game, or at very best, turns it over to our pen to try and win. Big advantage Lee.
Start number 4: July 27, A’s. Lee goes 9 innings allowing an unearned run on 5 hits, no walks and 13 K’s, but the rangers win in the 10th for Feliz on a walk-off 2 run bomb by Nelson Cruz. Feldman loses this game. no doubt. no chance, and, the bullpen has to pitch more as well. HUGE advantage Lee.
Start number 5: August 1, Angels, Lee duels Weaver again. goes the distance allowing 4 runs on 9 hits walking 2!! (one intentionally). Feldman doesn’t win this game as Weaver and company allow only a single unearned run. but Lee saves the pen a couple of innings.
Start number 6: August 6th, A’s, Lee vs Braden. Lee goes 8 allowing 1 run and gets the win. Feldman also probably wins this game, but the extra cost is probably 2 innings including one by Feliz, as it would have been closer than 5-1 at the end.
Start number 7: August 11 Yankees, Lee vs Vazquez. Lee goes 6.1 innings and gives up 4 runs on 8 hits. This is a really hard one. many twists and turns. I’ve been assuming 3 runs in 6 innings for Feldman. This is probably a toss up, as I’m not sure we beat the Yankees this day regardless. This loss is on Feliz and Ogando, not Lee, as the Rangers took a lead into the 9th. I’m not going to assume that Feliz blows a 2 run save as easily as he blew the 1 run save that night. we’ll call this one even.
Start number 8: August 16, Rays, Lee vs Price: Lee goes 7.2 innings and gives up 6 runs on 9 hits. I blame wash for this one, as he left Lee in to way too many batters in the 8th that night. Also a hard one to say, with our mythical Feldman, we’re down a run going into the 7th, but we tie it off of Qualls, then its up to the pen to win this game. perhaps we win it, but its 3 innings of relief as opposed to 1 batter.
Start number 9: August 21, Baltimore. Lee sucks, Feldman wins this one. nuff said. Incidentally, Feldman pitching in this game and pads Lee’s ERA by allowing the inherited runner to score.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
How is there an advantage for Lee
in any game Lee lost? You really have roadkill for brains.
At best you can claim a draw.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
did you even read this?
2 bullpen innings saved is still 2 bullpen innings saved….. If Lee loses but goes 8 innings and Feldman loses but only goes 6 innings, then you use either one reliever 2 innings (which burns him for the next game, and possibly the one after, or you use 2 or more relievers for the 2 innings and everyone is less rested the next night.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
Oops.... hit post too early
Wasn’t done:
Start number 10: August 26, Twins. Lee sucks again, (though its all in 2 big hits) Feldman may or may not win this game (no decision regardless) as the Rangers don’t score til the 7th and 8th.
Start number 11: August 31, Royals. Lee sucks again. Feldman wins this game as the Rangers hammer Sean O’Sullivan.
So: We have +2 for Feldman and and +2 for Lee and pick-em on the rest but Lee also saves us a bunch of relief innings up until these last three starts (he gives back 2 innings in his last 2 starts).
are 8 extra bullpen innigs worth 2 wins? especially when they are Feliz, Oliver, and Francisco innings? I think so, but YMMV.
And that’s with an idealized Feldman who throws a 6 inning 3 run quality start each night, which Feldman hasn’t been doing that often. Feldman could have gotten pounded by the Royals just like Lee did, pushing that one back to pick-em. but all this is idle speculation based on what we’ve seen of both pitchers so far. I’ll say this, July Lee was worth much more than 2 wins over Feldman, though August Lee has given a lot of that back.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
I'm going to say something that is going to make you and Philkid mad
but to say that Cliff Lee has been worth 3 wins as a Ranger and is the difference between a 7 game and 4 game lead is just nuts. The Rangers have only won 3 games that he has started. Unless you are going to argue that the Rangers would have gone 0-11 , he has not meant 3 wins to the Rangers.
He has pitched well enough to be worth 3 wins to a team (the Rangers probably should be 8-3 or 7-4 in his starts) but that is under ideal conditions. In the absence of the luck that has resulted in the Rangers being 3-8 in Lee starts, Lee probably would have meant the Rangers were 11 games up instead of 7 right now.
Lee has pitched well as a Ranger, but since the team itself just hasn’t won in the games he has started, you can’t really say that the team’s record would be worse had they not acquired him. Basically, you just can’t point to Cliff Lee as a reason that the Rangers have as big a lead as they do.
Go Rice Owls!
Absolutely
It is the height of lunacy to suggest that Cliff Lee has been a positive at all with his results to date. I doubt the Rangers do any worse with Feldman filling the spot.
Folks really need to distinguish between sabermetric measures that help project future events, and the concrete record of past events.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
Well
First off, let me clarify. I did NOT say that Lee was worth 3 wins as a ranger. Lee has not. Lee, however, has been worth 2.1 wins as a Ranger according to fielding independent Pitching models. He’s still not walking anyone, he’s striking out even more batters as a Ranger than he did for Seattle, and while he’s allowed more home runs, he’s not giving up a ton more fly balls, meaning that a larger percentage of fly balls he’s given up have gone for homers. To counter that, he’s had an uptick in his line drive percentage, which, to me, seems that he’s had worse command, especially lately, which has caused more “hard hit” balls than when he first got here. According to Mike Maddux, he’s not had his same command in bullpen sessions as well, and the back may have been an issue there.
so, where did the other win come from? well, Smoak has been a -0.8 player for the Mariners. as I said above, assuming we played Smoak as much as the Mariners did before sending him down (or benching him, I didn’t pay attention), we would have been 3 wins worse if we hadn’t made the trade, 2 from gaining Lee, and one from losing Smoak. (approximately)
To address your final three paragraphs. empirical data is not the same as going start by start and saying, “well, if Feldman starts this game, x happens, but Y happened because Lee started.” I could do that, and its very possible that we go 0-11 in Feldman starts instead of Lee starts, or 1-10, or 11-1. Its all speculation.
I spun a very heartbreaking tale before about the team possibly ending up run by mimes, and while it was a joke, the true fact is that the acquisition of Lee had an impact beyond the boxscore as well. Its easy to say, “I told you so” but everyone, and I mean everyone was pumped about us acquring Lee, and for good reason. Lee will have a strong September and hopefully a stronger October for us.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
Yep
It was tough for me to see Lee being the one man to push us over the top.
Then again, I’m not as in love with our lineup as some are.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
and how.
Lee’s value (based on FIP) is still right up there with Josh Johnson and Roy Halladay and Francisco Liriano.
Lee’s batting average on balls in play, his left-on-base percentage, and his home runs per flyball percentage have all gone the wrong way since the trade, which means that despite going from a 2.34 ERA with Seattle to a 4.69 ERA with Texas, his xFIP has remained pretty much the same.
Now, I won’t say that he deserves the AL Cy Young because of this, but it does bode well for him being effective from here on out (assuming his back is better).
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
Yeah, I don't think he's clearly the best pitcher in baseball, but he's absolutely on the short list, depending on what period of time you choose to use.
I’d probably go with Halladay, but it’s close.
I hope
you are right, and there is a good chance he is nothing but a platoon player.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
And Cliff Lee may pitch in one meaningful game as a Ranger
one where he is only 50% likely to win (probably less) because his Game 1 opponent (Price or Sabathia) will be as good as him and they’ll be on the road.
Go Rice Owls!
trickle down
Lets construct our post season matchups with and without Lee:
with Lee:
Lee vs Sabathia/Price
Lewis vs Hughes/Garza
Wilson vs Pettitte/Shields
Hunter vs Burnett/Niemann
Lee vs Sabathia/Price
without Lee:
Wilson vs Sabathia/Price
Lewis vs Hughes/Garza
Hunter vs Pettitte/Shields
Harden or Feldman or Holland vs Burnett/Niemann
Wilson vs Sabathia/Price
Without Lee, our chances on winning games 1 and 5 drop by about 15%, our chances of winning game 3 drop, and Game 4 goes from a sure thing/pick-em to a pick-em/we’re fucked.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
Game 4
will be pitched by the Game 1 starters.
Feldman will be nowhere near a playoff starting spot. Regardless of if Cliff Lee is on the Rangers or on the Siberia Huskies.
Go Rice Owls!
I hope so.
But… what if Lewis or Wilson had gotten hurt? What if Hunter wasn’t all that (and may yet not be)?
Plus, Lee was a Yankee killer.
Actually, I just realized that I had it wrong.
vs the Yankees With Lee:
Lee vs Sabathia
Lewis vs Hughes
Wilson vs Pettitte
Lee vs Sabathia
Lewis vs Hughes
vs the Yankees w/o Lee:
Wilson vs Lee
Lewis vs Sabathia
Hunter vs Pettitte
Wilson vs Lee
Lewis vs Sabathia
You forget, that if we don’t pony up Smoak, then Lee is in pinstripes.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
Sure, he makes the Rangers better.
And I like that. There are parts of the trade I liked.
But you sure as hell haven’t shown the overwhelming evidence that Cliff Lee for a few months makes it more likely for the Rangers to win a World Series than cheap Justin Smoak for years.
I don’t think it was clearly a bad trade, but calling it clearly a good trade is dumb.
ok
Justin Smoak flames out, our chances of winning a world Series this year are no better, and no better in the future. and for that matter, the Yankees pick up Lee, the Angels, energized by our failure to land Lee, overtake us and win the division, Ryan and Greenberg walk away, Cuban decides not to bid on the team, and it ends up in the hands of Jeff Beck, who fires Washington, Daniels, Maddux, Levine, the whole front office, and brings in 52 mimes to run the team.
Meet your new General Manager, Marceau Marceau Jr. The introductory press conference will be very short, and no, he won’t be taking questions (well, at least not until he finds his way out of that invisible box.)
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
Marceau Marceau Jr. - GM, ok. just not 3B coach.
seems like a guy that would want to be handsy with players rounding third
by sam in so cal on Sep 7, 2010 3:54 PM CDT up reply actions
You're assuming one specific scenario - you have to think of all outcomes.
Obviously, if Lee comes in here and is instrumental in winning a World Series, then no one will care whether Smoak turns out great or not. But the odds that will happen are maybe – maybe – 10%.
If the Rangers lose in the first round (probably a 60% chance of happening), then it will be very hard to justify the Lee trade in hindsight if Smoak is even decent. Let’s assume Smoak has a nice normal distribution – 20% good player (i.e., john olerud), 60% serviceable to good (lyle overbay), 20% mediocre (casey kotchman). That’s about 80% chance that the trade wasn’t worth it. (0.6*0.8=.48) and a 20% chance that the deal just won’t matter (.2*.6 = .12).
Really, the only fuzzy area is if the Rangers win the ALDS and lose in the ALCS (30% chance). I think the how matters a lot, lets say 50% of that scenario Lee was important in getting that far, and 50% of that scenario Lee was less important (lost his ALDS game, or won his ALDS game and goes 0-2 in the ALCS). In both cases, I think a good Smoak outcome makes the deal look bad regardless (30%20%=0.06), in the good playoff Lee, lose ALCS, the trade still looks good compared to the middling outcome, but the bad playoff Lee makes the middling outcome look annoying. (50%30%60% for both = .09 for both). Finally, in either case a bad Smoak outcome makes the trade look good (.2.3=.06)
So added up, I get the following
Odd trade looks good: .1 (WS win) + .06 (win ALDS but lose ALCS + bad Smoak) + .09 (Lee helps win ALDS, lose ALCS, + so-so Smoak) = .25 = 25%
Odd trade looks bad: .09 (win ALDS, lose ALCS, no thanks to Lee + so-so Smoak) + .06 (win ALDS, lose ALCS + good Smoak) + .48 (lose ALDS + good or so-so Smoak) = .63 = 63%
Odd trade doesn’t matter: .02 (lose ALDS + bad Smoak) = .12 = 12%
Go Rice Owls!
Sorry about the weird bolding
but the conclusion is the following: If you weight the possible outcomes by reasonable probabilities, then by my math you get that there is about a 63% chance that the Rangers regret this deal, and only a 25% chance that they love it in hindsight.
Now, you can always fudge these numbers one way or another (particularly the Smoak probabilities), and you can value time however you want (success now >>> success next year). But I find it hard to believe that the numbers would ever switch over completely.
I would love to be wrong, because it likely means that the Rangers either won the World Series or made some noise. But I’m very doubtful that I will be.
Go Rice Owls!
sorry....
from a marketting standpoint Lee winning one game in the ALDS makes the trade a win. hands down. we don’t even need to win the series.
you may not necessarily be a Rangers fan, (and if you are, I’m not meaning to insult you). But the Rangers have played 10 post season games, and lost the last 9 of them, all to the Yankees. They haven’t been to the postseason in 11 years and haven’t won a post season game since the first one in 1996. The positive impact of Lee stepping to the mound in game one of the ALDS, especially against the Yankees, and beating them is worth more than a dozen Justin Smoaks.
Everything after that is gravy. and I mean it.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
oh,
one more thing. When the day comes when Lyle Overbay can carry John Olerud’s jockstrap, we’ll let you know. Olerud was a hell of a player, 62.4 wins over replacement for his career. Overbay has been worth 14.5 in 8+ seasons.
Career .448 SLG for a first baseman? yeah, well…. I’ll pass.
and Olerud was an excellent defender too.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
less...
NYY -135
TEX +125
if TEX doesn’t show something (anything) in the last month, it could be as high as -145 or -150. won’t go past that.
by sam in so cal on Sep 7, 2010 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions
With Lee starting
they’d never be -145. But the -135/+125 line seems realistic for a Lee @ Sabathia matchup. I wouldn’t know who to be on.
Go Rice Owls!
I wonder
what we’re going to do at 1B next year, not that I wasn’t for the Lee trade.
Troy McClure: "Don’t kid yourself, Jimmy! If a cow ever got the chance, he’d eat you and everyone you care about!"
by stupidsexyflanders on Sep 7, 2010 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions
I think that Moreland has done a good job so far,
and I think that he deserves the chance to start spring training as the #1 option. He may not have the potential ceiling that Davis or Smoak have, but to me he looks like he belongs in the big leagues.
Superman wears Josh Hamilton pajamas.
I think the only reason not to get a 1B FA
is because we blow too much budget on other positions where we are suffering offensively, like C, SS, or CF. Since SS is a position with an up the middle defensive player that the organization seems to like, I doubt they upgrade offense there.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
I definitely think the priority should be upgrading C and CF,
and hopefully with some right handed bats in there somewhere. I could see the Rangers bringing in a veteran 1B to back Moreland up in case he pulls a Chris Davis on them, but unless a can’t miss 1B comes along via trade or FA, I would be content with running Moreland out there and seeing how he handles a full season.
Superman wears Josh Hamilton pajamas.
Why would we need to go out and get a 1B?
Generally your up the middle guys are defense first guys who you are happy they supply much offense at all.
Your corner guys are your offensive weapons.
Right now we are above average offensively in LF, RF, DH, 3B, and 2B. So 4 of the 5 natural offensive positions we are above average. Kinsler allows us to be below average at 1B and still have a potent offense. If Moreland can be around average and we continue to get above average production from Nellie, Josh, Young, and Kins and go out and address our DH then we should be fine.
Ideally sure id like to have a Yankees style offense where all 9 guys are really good offensively but I think what we have is just fine. If the club has faith in Moreland then we don’t need to go out and get anyone for 1B
Personally, I'd like to get a 3B
and move MY to DH, but that would turn MY into a crying titty baby, so I doubt it happens.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
Have no idea why not 2011.
Vlad is gonna be gone, and we will need a DH.
"Look, we're basically on earth to shit and fuck. So unless your job's to help people shit or fuck, it's not that important, so relax."-https://twitter.com/shitmydadsays
They don't "need" to go out and get a 1B, they SHOULD improve every position they can.
First base is not the priority, but it is worth addressing if they can.
This is about just where I am naturally.
I just don’t care much about the individual games right now.
I don't care about individual games at all
but this team is playing awfully similar to how they tend to play in Aprils. Which is okay if they jolt out of it quick like they did this April, but if they stay in their funk for a couple of months like they did in previous years, it’s going to be a painful October.
Go Rice Owls!
at least they still have 25+ games to snap out of it
id be really worried if we only had a week to go in the year and we were in this same situation.
It's Time.
by Jason Brynsvold on Sep 7, 2010 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions
Think about it this way - at least they aren't the Padres
A 10 game losing streak to drop their lead to one game? This website would burn to the ground. Not sure how you light a website on fire but someone would figure that out.
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
Well, to be optimistic about it
if we did lose 10 in a row, at least Josey would have a coronary and we wouldn’t have to see his posts anymore. (trying to look on the bright side)
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
It's hard to compete at a high level
when you continually have your best player out of the lineup. Hamilton. Cruz. Kinsler. Elvis. Cliff Lee. Each can be considered our best (although it’d be ridiculous to really say with a straight face that it’s anybody other than Josh). Each has been hurt during the recent stink stretch.
As long as we’re healthy for the playoffs, I’m fine with the suck with a 7 game lead. As long as it doesn’t drop too much closer.
I haven’t been watching the games the past week – SO busy. I even deleted DVR without watching. I apologize. I’ll start watching again. We’ll start winning again.
"Look at our current situation with that camel f$%ker over in Iraq. Pacifism is not something to hide behind."
Started raining in Abilene now.
Genesis 1: 3-4 (Rangers Edition): And JD said "Let there be Lee," and there was Lee. And JD saw the Lee, that it was good: and JD divided the Rangers from the Angels. by Aquaman56
That's because you weigh about a buck twenty five...
…and the wind ends up blowing you down the road faster than Bengie can run. AJM on Aug 30, 2010
It looks like it could start raining here in Cali.
Wish it would, actually. I like rain.
I don’t always have sex with men…but when I do, I prefer Josh Hamilton. - AJM
He "likes" it because it helps his melancholy
Grey skies approaching
It feeds the woe in my heart
I hate everything
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
I just found a MANTIS in my yard...
And he appeared to be praying. So I think everything is going to be okay. If he had been preying, I would be certain.
Football=Fling... Baseball=Relationship
by Wemedge on Sep 7, 2010 12:00 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
you shoulda stomped it
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Cecilio's Guante on Sep 7, 2010 11:38 PM CDT up reply actions
This looks like it only going to be a 150 game season
based on how many games I have decided never occurred.
"What ... 92 miles per hour?" Feldman scoffed. "That's not gas. Feliz throws gas."
"If I had caught it, the force would have taken me through the fence." -- Rockies outfielder Ryan Spilborghs about a Nelson Cruz line drive.
by NorCalRangersFan on Sep 7, 2010 12:43 PM CDT reply actions
I k now basically everyone already agrees that Jon Heyman's Tweets are awful...
But good grief, it’s like he’s intentionally trying to say stupid things now:
SI_JonHeyman
interesting that reggie bush may be stripped of heisman. but not oj. of course oj might just steal it back, anyway.
22 minutes ago via web
Uhh, why in the hell would OJ be stripped?!?!
Heyman is such an awful beating.
THE RANGERS ARE FULL OF UNBELIEVEABLE SUCK GIVE UP NOW IT DOES NOT MATTER GOOD BYE.
"It has been said that baseball is to the United States what revolutions are to Latin America, a safety valve for letting off steam. I think baseball is more serious than any Latin American revolution. But, then, I am a serious fan." -- George F. Will
Murder
and Murder most foul…..
Not that that should really matter, but I’m guessing that was what Heyman’s reasoning is. but who gives a fuck.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
Yeah, OJ is obviously a pretty terrible person who probably did something WAY worse than what Bush allegedly did
But committing a murder 30 years after the award is absolutely no reason to take away his Heisman. Bush is being stripped because rules were violated in the midst of his winning the award. I don’t see how, for purposes of retaining the Heisman Trophy, the Bush and Simpson situations are comparable.
THE RANGERS ARE FULL OF UNBELIEVEABLE SUCK GIVE UP NOW IT DOES NOT MATTER GOOD BYE.
"It has been said that baseball is to the United States what revolutions are to Latin America, a safety valve for letting off steam. I think baseball is more serious than any Latin American revolution. But, then, I am a serious fan." -- George F. Will
Plus, OJ no longer owns his Heisman.
It was sold in a 1999 auction, with the proceeds going to the Goldman family. So he would not have to physically return his trophy. Striking his name from the record books would be an indignity, but after OJ’s book and TV special fiasco, I doubt he has much dignity left.
Superman wears Josh Hamilton pajamas.
Hey
its their award. they wanna take it away, that’s up to them.
I think OJ should be kicked out of the NFL HOF, stripped of his Heisman, and stripped of his Razzie award for Worst Supporting Actor in Naked Gun 33 1/3
Furthermore, he should be drawn, quartered, folded, spindled, and finally mutilated.
but not for the murder. I’m still pissed at him for fucking up my enjoyment of the Houston Rockets playoff game vs the Suns all those years ago when the damn networks had to show a fucking white pickup (minivan? can’t fucking remember) going 30 mph down a california highway surrounded by police cars.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
It was a white Ford Bronco.
I remember thinking, “What the hell is the big deal?”
Superman wears Josh Hamilton pajamas.
But wait, there's MOAR!
Dog Chase Broadcast Live on TV
Only in fucking Cali…
"I support you, Wash; I’ve always supported you," Young said
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
Not to split hairs (and I know it was a joke)
But OJ was found liable in a civil trial by a jury (over 50% chance he did it) as opposed to the criminal trial where he was not guilty and the standard is preponderance of a doubt.
There’s more evidence Clemens did steroids than OJ killing his wife.
"You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
Then he grounded out weakly to second.
Just to clear up any misconceptions...I think if the Rangers can go 5-3 in their next 8 games...
that will go a long way into finally shutting the door on the A’s unless that Pythag fellow does a complete reversal (A’s suddenly go 8-0).
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"The Influence continues." Josey Wales (1/18/10)
but
you don’t think they will…. because you are the anti-christ. or an a’s fan. pretty much the same thing.
Sir Warwick Harrow: I know him, and I think he's a psychotic lowlife.
Mal: And I think calling him that is an insult to the psychotic lowlife community.
I feel like there should be a pre-scripted reply to all of Josey Wales comments.
In fact, I almost feel like there is one that has become sadly underused. If I do in fact learn of such a thing I might make it my personal quest to bring it back.
"Sorry, I can't hear you with Hank Blalock's junk in your mouth."
"Blalock in the cleanup spot makes gives me agita." - Dustin
Oh my, you might be right, I do remember such a thing being used before.
It might be somewhat less topical without Blalock on the team, but hell, Josey doesn’t warrant any more thought than that.
feldman
is going to get back on track tonight. Just watch. Definitely look into bettorbelieveit.com. The baron capper picks winners left in right. I cashed out over $2k just yesterday
Yes. Bet the house on the Rangers tonight. There is no way that you could possibly lose!
Superman wears Josh Hamilton pajamas.
Fuck you in the mouth with Josey's dick.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Cecilio's Guante on Sep 7, 2010 11:39 PM CDT up reply actions
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