When will the Rangers clinch?
by JBImaknee on Sep 9, 2010 1:14 PM CDT
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So there has been a lot of discussion about what day the Rangers will clinch, specifically whether it will be in Seattle, so philkid can see it (No); Anaheim, so LSJ can see it (Almost certainly not); Oakland, so GoET can see it (Possibly); or at home, for all the rest of you who get to see the Rangers whenever you want anyway...
So this prompted me to run a simple simulation of the next few weeks to see when that Magic Number is likely to drop below zero. Taking only road and home records and opponents into account (no 3rd order pythag record or pitching matchups or injuries etc), I estimated the probabilities the Rangers and A's win/lose each of their remaining games, and determined from there using a Monte Carlo type simulation the probabilities the Rangers magic number reaches 0 by any given date:
Note - Formula for how I estimated win/loss: Odds home team wins = ((Home team home-Win %)x(1-road team road-Win %))^0.5. So against New York at home, the Rangers (0.620 at home) face the Yankees (0.580 on the road), giving Texas a 51% chance to win each game.
Here are my schedule conclusions:
0% Chance of seeing Magic Number = 0 before September 20th (Sorry Philkid)
7% Chance of seeing MN = 0 in Anaheim (9/20-9/22)
37% Chance of seeing MN = 0 in Oakland (9/23-9/26) (44% cumulative)
15% Chance in Texas on 9/27 vs Seattle (59% cumulative)
10% Chance in Texas on 9/28 vs Seattle (69% cumulative)
11% Chance in Texas on 9/29 vs Seattle (80% cumulative)
8% Chance in Texas on 9/30 vs LAA (88%)
5% Chance in Texas on 10/1 vs LAA (93%)
2% Chance in Texas on 10/2 vs LAA (95%)
2% Chance in Texas on 10/3 vs LAA (97%)
~3% Chance it doesn't happen :(
Again, this is a very simple analysis - so don't read too much into that ominous 3% at the end.
Bottom line: according to this simple analysis; if you want to see the Rangers clinch, your best bets are the last couple of days in Oakland with GoET, and 9/27 or 9/28 in Texas against Seattle. And I'm going to buy a ticket for the game in Anaheim on 9/22 because that 5% chance is good enough for me.
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Sept 23rd in Oakland
GoET, NorCalRangersFan, and I will be at that game. If Rangers do clinch that day, we’re gonna rip the Bay Area a new one
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I'll be at the 9/25 game, too
"What ... 92 miles per hour?" Feldman scoffed. "That's not gas. Feliz throws gas."
"If I had caught it, the force would have taken me through the fence." -- Rockies outfielder Ryan Spilborghs about a Nelson Cruz line drive.
by NorCalRangersFan on Sep 9, 2010 1:35 PM CDT up reply actions
right
If there’s an option of clinching in any of the other 4 games, I’ll be there
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by Baseball North on Sep 9, 2010 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions
thats 5 total now for that game!!!
should be pretty crazy
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by Baseball North on Sep 9, 2010 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree...
… basically because they will maintain @ an 8 game lead, making it the Oakland series that they’ll clinch…
"I said I got this guy out a couple of times already, I get him out historically and I really need to work on my neck tan," -- CJ Wilson getting pulled with 2 out in the 8th.
Give me $100 on 9/27
"Drinks are on me if Lewis posts >168IP and an era lower than 3.86." by RangerMad on Jan 20, 2010 12:36 PM PST
That's the date they clinched in 1996.
What are we at the park for except to win? I'd trip my mother. I'd help her up, brush her off, tell her I'm sorry. But mother don't make it to third. ~Leo Durocher
I used my free tickets from All-Star voting for 9/28
I’m hoping I hit the jackpot
"We are no longer a ride at Six Flags, we are in contention to do some things that will make our lives complete. I have been waiting for this for a long time." - Chuck Morgan
Did you get your tickets via e-mail?
i haven’t recieved mine yet??
wow talk about a scam
i voted 75 times on 3 different e-mails and i didnt get tickets on any of them
I want them to do it at home
Sorry Bay Area Ranger fans.
2010 Texas Rangers: Going where no Rangers team has gone since '99
it should be 100% game 1 or 2 in OAK
since that’s what I said last week….
http://www.lonestarball.com/2010/9/3/1667246/a-l-west-standings#45887800
clinch game 1 or game 2 in OAK
i’m going for 9/23 game 1
of course, i didn’t do any of that fancy math stuff several days ago… i just logic-ed it out.
Come find us: Section 105, Row 1, Seats 7-9.
We could also meet up before the game starts in the Westside Club,
"What ... 92 miles per hour?" Feldman scoffed. "That's not gas. Feliz throws gas."
"If I had caught it, the force would have taken me through the fence." -- Rockies outfielder Ryan Spilborghs about a Nelson Cruz line drive.
by NorCalRangersFan on Sep 9, 2010 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions
Heres a question for everyone
The game on 9/29 is a Wednesday DAY game. 1:05 start.
If the Rangers magic number is 1 how many of you will skip work/school and be there?
Right. Like they'd win a day game.
"What ... 92 miles per hour?" Feldman scoffed. "That's not gas. Feliz throws gas."
"If I had caught it, the force would have taken me through the fence." -- Rockies outfielder Ryan Spilborghs about a Nelson Cruz line drive.
by NorCalRangersFan on Sep 9, 2010 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions
tim mcgraw friday at the death star...
who thought this would be a good idea??? regardless of what you think about NYY, they draw. what’s this going to look like?
fwiw – he better be singing the national anthem (not that i care).
No offense
but I would really rather have it over with by that time.
"If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there is a man on base." - Dave Barry
by Suicide Prince on Sep 9, 2010 4:27 PM CDT up reply actions
i'm torn
obviously being at home, coming back out onto the field to celebrate with the fans would be sweet. there would also be something very satisfying finishing off the team that has been chasing us then tearing apart the visiting clubhouse in their stadium. i don’t really care i just want it to happen. its going to happen but its sort of like the cowboys and winning a playoff game last year. its been so damn long i’m not going to believe it until i see it.
Sept. 25
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
When the magic number reaches zero.
/Mike E
I don’t always have sex with men…but when I do, I prefer Josh Hamilton. - AJM
"~3% Chance it doesn't happen"
That’s wrong.
Since you made the title of the post “WHEN will the Rangers clinch” and not “IF the Rangers clinch, when will it be?” the chance of it not happening is now 20%.
Thanks dude. Thanks a lot.
formerly cmk
We will clinch on $Texas
Genesis 1: 3-4 (Rangers Edition): And JD said "Let there be Lee," and there was Lee. And JD saw the Lee, that it was good: and JD divided the Rangers from the Angels. by Aquaman56
"Josey drives to games??? I always assumed he rides in on his high horse" jam0152
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