Putting the Vernon Wells deal into perspective
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 22, 2011 8:22 PM CST
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PrintThere are those who have argued that it doesn't really matter what the Angels are paying Vernon Wells, because at the end of the day, he makes the Angels better, and Arte Moreno can afford to pay him.
But how good is Vernon Wells, really, as a player?
Here's the 2011 ZiPS projection for Vernon Wells:
.265/.318/.451, 104 OPS+
Here's the 2011 ZiPS projection for David Murphy:
.277/.338/.446, 105 OPS+
And they are both above-average defensive COFs who are hard-pressed to handle centerfield capably.
So basically, the Angels are paying $86 million over the next four years for a righthanded David Murphy.
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I'm a fan of the Murph
Would 86mm over 4-years really be that outa line?
I'm assuming this is tongue-in-cheek
The problem is, when you’re a new poster, there’s no track record to go off of to figure out when you’re serious or kidding.
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 22, 2011 9:07 PM CST up reply actions
poor Murph.....
maybe he should give Wells’ agent Greg Genske a call.
by volume_shooter on Jan 22, 2011 9:47 PM CST up reply actions
Never again.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
Apparently
the Angels spent a lot of money on a 4th OF.
"I wanted to go out there and punch Julio" - Ron Washington
Murphy
He’s really our 3rd OF.
Unfortunately, he’s also our 3rd corner OF.
by Darrell McKown on Jan 22, 2011 8:36 PM CST up reply actions
Murphy should print this out for his arb hearing next year.
by Brad on Jan 22, 2011 8:33 PM CST reply actions 5 recs
It's worse than that
At 29, there’s at least a reasonable chance that Murphy will be the same player over the next four years, or at least not significantly worse.
At 32, you can’t really say that about Vernon Wells.
Excellent point
THE RANGERS ARE FULL OF UNBELIEVEABLE SUCK GIVE UP NOW IT DOES NOT MATTER GOOD BYE.
"It has been said that baseball is to the United States what revolutions are to Latin America, a safety valve for letting off steam. I think baseball is more serious than any Latin American revolution. But, then, I am a serious fan." -- George F. Will
by WestTxAg06 on Jan 23, 2011 12:13 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Vernon doesn't have quiet the GAR, that Murphy does.
It goes deeper. People take out their frustrations with Josey on their real-life acquaintances, which propagates forward, and before you know it you’ve got more marriages in an easily-smashable state.
by Closure GT on Dec 14, 2010 9:48 AM CST
by RangersSD on Jan 22, 2011 8:52 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Alright, in all seriousness
The Angels are a bunch of dumbasses.
All I have to do is point to my sig ( an HH regular ) and say, “You mad?”
"They both have, according to scouts, "stacked minor league systems" but I just don’t see the Rays competing against the Red Sox or Yankees and I don’t think the Rangers will be able withstand the offseason wrath of Moreno. Have fun while it lasts." - by angelsownredsux
by AfterSchoolSpecial on Jan 22, 2011 9:01 PM CST reply actions
Unfortunately for the Angels' fanbase,
Moreno’s wrath appears to have now been directed at them, rather than their enemies.
Four years of 32 year old Vernon Wells at over $20mil/year…I’m honestly still having difficulty with it.
I mean, the ultimate upside scenario has him being worth ~75% of his contract, even considering the apparent ‘inflation’ of FA values this offseason. The downside (barring catastrophic injury) has him being worth about 35% of it.
I know many of us...
have given AJM a hard time about all the front page posts he has been putting up lately. Jokingly asking how much he’s getting paid per post.
Well, I for one won’t be complaining about the front page posts on this deal. In fact I hope to see another 15 or 20 on the subject just to remind me over and over again how badly the Halos got ass-raped here.
I will never get tired of reading stuff like this about this deal. It’s just so fucking great.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Jan 22, 2011 9:19 PM CST reply actions 11 recs
This post warms my heart
It really does. And I live in Halo country.
"They both have, according to scouts, "stacked minor league systems" but I just don’t see the Rays competing against the Red Sox or Yankees and I don’t think the Rangers will be able withstand the offseason wrath of Moreno. Have fun while it lasts." - by angelsownredsux
by AfterSchoolSpecial on Jan 22, 2011 9:20 PM CST up reply actions
I like that a post about the Angels getting "ass-raped" warms your heart.
Keep up the good work.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
Damnit - I thought I'd be the 3'rd rec
Turns out I’m fourth.
Hobson, did you see that?
Yes.
She stole that tie! It's the perfect crime. Girls don't wear ties; although some do. It's not a perfect crime, but it's a good crime.
Yes. If she murdered the tie it would be the perfect crime.
I've got the Gary Jules version of Mad World on a loop
And I keep imaging Angels fans taking slow walks around LA with their heads down and hands in their pockets. Maybe their face a little dirty from all the tears.
I guess I have to preface this post with, I think this was a poor trade for Anaheim.
But, Why do people trust ZiPs? Those are similar numbers to what was predicted for Wells last year, .314 OBP/.450 SLG/96 OPS+. In reality he had .331/.515/127 OPS+.
I looked up a few guys from the playoff teams, and the only one that came close was Longoria. Hamilton’s OPS was .215 off, OPS+ 64 off. Mauer .072 and 11. Nellie .096 and 34. Cano .117 and 32. Crawford .063 and 24. ARod .061 and 18. Longoria only had a difference of .039 and 11.
Murphy, FWIW, was real close. The crazy thing about the trade is that we even have to consider the comp. So yeah, especially when you consider the money, it’s a bad trade. But I don’t think a projection system tells us what the Angels got is David Murphy.
It’s a big if, but if Wells, Hunter, and Morales produce like they’re capable with that starting 3, I don’t think we should think the division is gonna be a cakewalk with them or the A’s.
Que sera, sera.
What people? That seems like more of an indictment on people than an endorsement for projection systems.
You could probably just average out a guy’s previous 2 years and come just as close.
Que sera, sera.
That sounds like Marcel.
Which, last study I saw, was not better than ZiPS.
Hey, Zymborski, get in here.
CHONE came out better than ZiPS by every measure I've seen, but we don't have CHONE anymore, and in its absence, Sean Smith recommends ZiPS.
So there’s also that.
Most recent direct evaluation of projection systems I’ve seen was Jared Cross last year (for 2009). He (and his students) set Marcel as the 81-81 baseline and ranked projection systems relative to Marcel.
Haven’t seen anyone do a direct 2010 yet (I don’t do them myself because there’s a conflict of interest, though I did do a quick look to see if the percentiles were distributing players correctly.
by D.Szymborski on Jan 23, 2011 1:34 AM CST up reply actions
Heh, like I needed yet another alternate spelling to worry about!
On the plus side, I was impressed that 31% of guys who took the Sporcle Baseball Stat Test got my name. Or that there’s rampant cheating.
by D.Szymborski on Jan 23, 2011 1:48 AM CST up reply actions
Priestly still gets the credit for discovering oxygen!
by D.Szymborski on Jan 23, 2011 1:59 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
FanGraphs did a community projection project.
I’d be interested in seeing how it fared against the conventional projection systems. Don’t know if they’ve done it yet.
by AsDevilsRun on Jan 23, 2011 12:10 AM CST up reply actions
People "trust" ZiPS because it's better than sitting around and going with guesses based on their guts.
And “a few guys” is a really bad way of determining whether it is or is not.
I don't have time to check every player.
My point is, I don’t see a projection system as an accurate system. Just using the guy we’re talking about, Wells, it was off by a decent margin. And it’s not like Wells careered.
This isn’t a criticism of Zymborski or his tools, but athletes aren’t robots. Like a lot of stats out there, it’s a fun device to try and get a gauge on a player’s worth or future worth, but not a be-all, end-all.
Que sera, sera.
The definition of accuracy is variable.
It’s semantics to say whether ZiPS is accurate or not.
However, you have one of two options when it comes to talking about what will happen in the coming season:
1) Use the most reliably correct “guesser” you can.
2) Don’t talk about what will happen.
So, in this case, either Adam should just not bother talking about how good Vernon Wells will be in 2010, or he should use the most reliable prognosticator of what Vernon Wells will do available. In this case, that’s probably ZiPS, which, if I’m not mistaken, was the most accurate projector of players in Tango’s study in 2009 (which uses a lot more than “a few guys,”) and was up there in 2010, and was better than most things you can look at right now in Vegas Watches April projections evaluations over the years.
When it comes to a simple projection like you’re talking about, you’re talking about Marcel, which is very simplistic. Along the lines of your “just averaging the previous seasons” idea, it’s the standard designed to measure predictions. If your predictions aren’t better than Marcel, they shouldn’t exist, basically, because you’re complicating things and not getting better accuracy as a result. Follow? ZiPS is better than Marcel, so it is not complicating things with nothing to show for it.
So, when someone takes a projection system, like ZiPS, and says what it says a player is going to do, they aren’t saying thats the set-in-stone destiny, they’re saying that’s the best guess at what he’s going to do.
For instance, back when Nate Silver was around and PECOTA was the gold standard, if I said “PECOTA gives Ryan Howard a .200/.300/.400 line,” I wouldn’t be saying that’s definitely what Ryan Howard will be putting up. I’d be saying the “guesser” most likely to be correct based on past success says this. The argument isn’t that Howard is definitely going to suck that much, the argument is that our best evidence suggests he’s going to suck that much.
We absolutely don’t know what’s going to happen in baseball, it’s pretty damn hard to predict. But we try to predict it, anyway, and some people are better than predicting it than others. Dan is better at predicting it than Adam (no offense, Adam), and thus Adam cites Dan instead of just guessing.
That's all good, and thanks for your detailed reply.
And I have no problem with Adam citing it. I’m just trying to temper the idea that some people take from this, is that Anaheim just basically acquired a third/fourth OF due to a projection system.
We can all skew numbers to justify or bash a deal. An Angel fan could say go look at Wells most comparable players thru age 31. The top 2 are Andre Dawson and Reggie Smith. In their age 32 seasons Dawson won the MVP, and Smith came in 4th. If they acquired that guy, they got a really good player(the $ still makes it a head scratcher).
ZiPs is a fun exercise, and I don’t doubt they put more effort to get a closer result. For what it is, fine. But I wouldn’t rely on projection systems to make me more comfortable, or more worried, about my opponents.
Que sera, sera.
...
I’m just trying to temper the idea that some people take from this, is that Anaheim just basically acquired a third/fourth OF due to a projection system.
David Murphy career wRC+: 112
Vernon Wells career wRC+: 110
Wells has definitely been a rollercoaster the last 6 years.
It’s hard to project what he’s gonna give you, 90 one year, 130 the next.
What those numbers tell me more than anything is I probably shouldn’t designate Murphy in the 3/4 OF category. Nice value.
Que sera, sera.
It's a nebulous term.
I don’t feel much like arguing if he is or is not a 4OF. On a first division team, he’s likely not an ideal starting outfielder (though he was in his playing time in 2010), but it’s not like he kills you. Most pennant winning teams give regular playing time to mediocre players, if not worse, and Murphy can be counted on to be at least mediocre.
A 3OF is a starter, though. Nothing wrong with designating him that.
There needs to be a firm definition of what 4OF means before we argue if someone is or is not one. Much like “ace.”
Honestly
Murphy is a pretty clearly at least league average COF. Folks who say he is a 4th OF are largely the same ones who undervalued Byrd while he was here. By whatever metric you use, Performance, Performance/Price, Murphy is a great addition to a 25 man. There are maybe a handful of outfields in baseball he wouldn’t be an upgrade.
"I wanted to go out there and punch Julio" - Ron Washington
I'll put it this way:
If David Murphy is my team’s starting left fielder, then I would doubt improving left field is a top priority.
And if it is, my team is probably pretty good.
But Adam's not skewing numbers to justify or bash the deal.
He’s using the numbers to inform his opinion of the deal. Illumination, not lampost. ZiPS isn’t the only way of looking at this trade that makes it insane, it’s just an additional, deeper, angle that makes it insane from the many that have already been looked at.
Further, I’m not really sure how saying Anaheim just acquired a third/fourth outfielder is going out on a limb. Though, because of Wells’s unique variability, it might be better to say the average is 3rd/4th outfielder, but the reality is likely significantly better or significantly worse, not near the average. And his track record suggests “worse” being the more likely outcome.
The B-R most comparable players thing is a toy, not a tool.
Speaking of projections. . .
. . . reading through Tango posts on the subject I hadn’t read yet, I came across this suggestion that PECOTA is “back.”
xx
I’m just trying to temper the idea that some people take from this, is that Anaheim just basically acquired a third/fourth OF due to a projection system.
…except they did.
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Jan 23, 2011 12:21 AM CST up reply actions
I think this may be a case where the players have similar expected values
but the variance is quite different. Basically, Murphy’s ceiling and floor aren’t all that different (kind of good, but not great, but probably always better than mediocre hitter), but Wells could be anywhere from a below average to very good hitter.
Of course, one usually pays more money for predictability, unless the ceiling of the more variable player is MVP, or better, level (which it isn’t).
Go Rice Owls!
PECOTA's percentile thing is great for giving ranges.
Unfortunately, our apparent trade off for getting cool stuff like that is having to pay for it.
OK, let’s not look at projections, then.
Wells has hit 267/321/450 the last 4 years and the general consensus is that he’s been 5-10 runs below average a year in center. BR has those 4 years as 7.6 WAR while FG has those 4 years 7.0 WAR. You don’t need to extrapolate or predict – there’s little chance that Wells will earn his salary. Even repeating his 2010 season doesn’t get him to his yearly salary in value.
by D.Szymborski on Jan 23, 2011 1:40 AM CST up reply actions
Oh, I don't think he'll earn his salary.
Either way, he’s a part of the Angels and I don’t think we as Ranger fans should get too comfortable with thinking this deal just puts more distance b/w us. As I tried to state, the projections are a fun and fair exercise, but Wells could easily outperform them. Of course, you know that(He could easily underperform or practically nail them, as well).
Like I said, I don’t doubt that ZiPs has been closest or has the best system. It’s more a comment on projections in regards to fan expectations. And I’m superstitious about the schadenfreude joy towards our competitors.
I’m Edwin Starr with WAR.
Que sera, sera.
Why?
You think a community of posters online can actually affect the outcome of sporting events through their posts?
Seriously?
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
Superstitions aren't rational.
Yet, lots of people have them. It’s just a thing, nothing to be taken literal.
Que sera, sera.
So you don't actually think our schadenfreude will impact the performance of the respective teams.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
So you choose to be irrational.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
It's not really a choice if that's where your mind takes you.
I haven’t mastered fooling my mind.
Que sera, sera.
Impact performance? No.
But it absolutely impacts my feelings about said performance. Superstitions are one of the ways people cope with things that are beyond their control. Ironically, our feelings have considerable impact on things we would otherwise have greater ability to control. My lucky shirt didn’t help me take tests or write better papers in college except for by providing me with a ritual that got me in a proper frame of mind.
/marisa
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Jan 23, 2011 12:21 AM CST up reply actions
My favorite comment thus far from HH
Forget salary for now and look at what this does to the allotment of playing time. First of all, I’ve never bought the argument that Napoli should be traded because he was a "spart part." That’s the Angels’ fault for not realizing his value and failing to optimize their lineup. They’ve already been sacrificing 15-20 runs a year by refusing to do so, but losing his bat entirely creates a 30-run offensive vacuum at catcher relative to replacement. Unfortunately, Jeff Mathis was about as far below replacement level last year and Mike Napoli was above it, with a negligible defensive advantage.
That’s an incredible 50 runs that have to be made up just to break even on this trade, and Napoli is still a "spare part" in this scenario. If we buy into heady optimism and suppose that Mathis gets cut out of Spring Training, and that Wilson/Conger are capable of replacement-level performance, which would reduce the deficit to 25-30 runs or so.
Last year, as a centerfielder, Wells was worth about 35 runs better than replacement. This was his third-best season on record, so it’s also pretty optimistic to suppose that he’ll repeat this, but I’ll bite. Nevertheless, it would probably be most advantageous for the Angels to move him to left and leave Bourjos in center. Wells’ glove probably gets about 10 runs better in left than in center, but he gives that back with his bat due to the positional adjustment.
Meanwhile, Rivera’s offense and defense was good for about 10 runs above replacement in left last year, which was a significant downturn compared to his previous season. It would also be quite pessimistic to assume that this would have happened again next season. Go with it anyways. The difference between Wells and Rivera in left is then somewhere in the vicinity of 25-30 runs, the same amount lost at the catcher position.
By making the most foolishly hopeful estimates possible, the trade breaks even next season. More likely it comes out as a 20- or 30-run loss for the Angels, but you can believe what you want. This is all in total isolation from park factors, a $10-$12 million increase in payroll, and an additional $63-million liability over three more seasons. Napoli has another season under team control to account for as well.
The Blue Jays could have sent as much as $100 million along with Vernon Wells and still won this trade. The only way to justify it is to create rhetorical categories like "strong defender" and "credible middle-of-the-order bat" ("a young 32" is a good one too) and then place Wells in those categories by fiat, while similarly excluding Rivera and Napoli. Reputation is the only reason people think of Vernon Wells as a more credible middle-of-the-order bat than Mike Napoli.
Right now, the Wells trade looks very likely to up-end the GMJ signing as the worst baseball decision in modern Angels history. It might not be unreasonable to remove the word "modern" from the preceding sentence.
by Brad on Jan 22, 2011 10:56 PM CST reply actions 7 recs
should have made this a fanpost
Dallas Stars Examiner!!
poster formerly known as hinduplaya
by mayur.patel on Jan 23, 2011 11:07 AM CST up reply actions
So, you're saying...
…that we shouldn’t trade Murphy for Wells straight up, despite the fact that Wells is Michael Young’s best friend??? Surely, $86 million would be worth it if it makes Face happy!
Of course, this is just inside information. Don’t tell anybody. I’ve heard you guys suck at keeping secrets!
by Bats and Balls on Jan 22, 2011 11:03 PM CST reply actions
anyone think TOR flips Napoli to us for Young?
We’d pick up some salary of course…
Thoughts?
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
He'd be going "home" in terms of organizations.
It goes deeper. People take out their frustrations with Josey on their real-life acquaintances, which propagates forward, and before you know it you’ve got more marriages in an easily-smashable state.
by Closure GT on Dec 14, 2010 9:48 AM CST
Who is going to play 3rd for them?
JB wants off of 3rd and they’re wanting the same….
I don’t think it’s out of the question especially seeing the coin they just saved with the Wells deal.
I want Napoli (I can’t believe I just said that)…dude mashes lefties.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
worst beard in the U.S.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
I'm in agreement.
I’ve wanted him for a little while. I wouldn’t be completely against this if the money was right.
"The Angels are like the villain in the movie that isn't dead until he's been stabbed 150 times in the bath tub, yet he still might come back up one more time." - Eric Nadel
EE's a worse defender than MY, isn't he?
just curious…
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
Yes, he's just as bad, if not worse
"I also have to say that I was pretty obviously wrong about C.J. Wilson. As recently as the All Star Break, I proclaimed the decision to move him the rotation a failure. That was epicfail of a, well, epic nature" - AJM
"My parents actually loved to pimp me too." - LSJ
Probably the worst I've felt since they lost to Vanderbilt in the second round of the '07 tournament.
Just because this team has so much talent and is squandering it so much with crap like this.
Penal Code 422
It goes deeper. People take out their frustrations with Josey on their real-life acquaintances, which propagates forward, and before you know it you’ve got more marriages in an easily-smashable state.
by Closure GT on Dec 14, 2010 9:48 AM CST
OT: Black Keys were simply bad ass tonight on ACL
THE RANGERS ARE FULL OF UNBELIEVEABLE SUCK GIVE UP NOW IT DOES NOT MATTER GOOD BYE.
"It has been said that baseball is to the United States what revolutions are to Latin America, a safety valve for letting off steam. I think baseball is more serious than any Latin American revolution. But, then, I am a serious fan." -- George F. Will
by WestTxAg06 on Jan 23, 2011 12:17 AM CST via mobile reply actions
...someone should go read what joey just posted at BBTIA
am i the only one worried all of these morans will migrate to LSB from the DMN after the paywall goes up?
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
you think we see an influx of morans?
from DMN
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Jan 23, 2011 12:26 AM CST up reply actions
...i beg to differ
where else are they going to go?
newberg forums, here or BBTIA…
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Jan 23, 2011 12:29 AM CST up reply actions
facebook!
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
I'm counting on the
“Welcoming Committee.”
by AsDevilsRun on Jan 23, 2011 12:30 AM CST up reply actions
ANGRYDOME, UNITE!
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Jan 23, 2011 12:33 AM CST up reply actions
I could start a bug zapper community.
A website specifically designed to encourage DMN-caliber baseball thinking.
It would keep them away from here, and I could cover it with ads and make myself money.
by philkid3 on Jan 23, 2011 12:30 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
i would be more than happy to help you with this
have a couple of sock puppets to keep convo going, etc.
i bet we could get maybe 10 ppl from LSB on board with something like that and it would work well
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Jan 23, 2011 12:32 AM CST up reply actions
i think it is a good idea...seriously
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Jan 23, 2011 12:37 AM CST up reply actions
im sure you could get probably 10-15 LSBers to "contribute" over there...
and at least have some kind of “community” (if you wanted to call it that)
hell, we could even get started by posting stuff on DMN before it goes to pay wall
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Jan 23, 2011 12:40 AM CST up reply actions
lol
count me in
"The Angels are like the villain in the movie that isn't dead until he's been stabbed 150 times in the bath tub, yet he still might come back up one more time." - Eric Nadel
so thats six people...
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Jan 23, 2011 12:56 AM CST up reply actions
Nope.
They’d quickly be flogged into submission.
"The Angels are like the villain in the movie that isn't dead until he's been stabbed 150 times in the bath tub, yet he still might come back up one more time." - Eric Nadel
Exactly
Most would be gone in a week after having to deal with us.
Hi, my name is Josey Wales and I'm a douche. Prove me wrong.
I see you posting on LSB and being a dipshit
And I’m like “fuck you…”
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
Being a new guy in here is tough.
I tread as lightly as I can, stay the fuck out of anything stat related, and poke jw in the eye as often as possible. So far I’ve not been beaten to a pulp.
Getting an ass whippin when you first get here
will just help you out in the long run if you stay. If not we don’t want you here. There is a reason why it’s called Angrydome
Hi, my name is Josey Wales and I'm a douche. Prove me wrong.
It's just the internet.
I’ve been a regular forum poster for a long time in several places that aren’t the Rangers. I used to moderate a forum dedicated to online console gaming. When you see posts day in and day out from angsty teens… adults seem quite tame by comparison. Though I prefer the Newberg format to the LSB free for all… but that’s just what I’m used to. I prefer the LSB community just because of its size and depth of knowledge. That and wufdog doesn’t post here. Though Josey does… win some… lose some.
Plus, there is a key lesson everyone needs to learn in life. Don’t give a fuck about what other people think… life is far less stressful that way.
by Brad on Jan 23, 2011 8:39 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs
When I started posting in 2005
Chris Martin beat me up my first week here.
Hi, my name is Josey Wales and I'm a douche. Prove me wrong.
Lol, I remember my first account here after lurking a bit
I decided to have some fun with an account named Mike Young after a particularly shitty performance by the face
>mfw
Best way to learn things stat-related:
Don’t stay away, just be ready to find out why something is right or wrong.
I learned more by going to Baseball Fever and having my idiocy corrected by the poster Tangotiger (figure out who that is!) than anything else.
If I hit a ball in to the outfield and arrive safely at first base and you say I recorded an out. . .
. . . you are wrong.
HUMAN ELEMENT!
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Jan 23, 2011 1:09 AM CST up reply actions
how do you know they are not?
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Jan 23, 2011 1:12 AM CST up reply actions
I just read everything that is stat-related I can.
I’m a slow study on it though. I did piss the absolute shit out of schultz the other night though. We had a running fight for 45 minutes or so.
I'd like to be confident in that
But you know, I’d bet there’d be more than a couple who instead of moving on would turn into trolls, a la TexasDawg/Rangers100.
That’s pretty much what happened with him, he was a somewhat dim poster who got his comeuppance from the rest of the blog and instead of moving on, managed to become the only troll ever banned repeatedly from LSB.
Also, based on the influx of posters from last year’s success that we had to deal with in the GDT’s and postgame threads and the fact that we only barely managed to deal with them, I could see this place getting overrun if it sees a big enough influx of idiots.
Ambition is a poor excuse for not having sense enough to be lazy.
gotta love aquaman
Terrance Wilson is the result of bad parenting. Young can lead just as well from the bench and if he wants to go out on the field, he can slap on a facemask and warm up the pitcher until Torrealba is ready.
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Jan 23, 2011 12:59 AM CST up reply actions
OT Question
How many championship appearances would it take for you to be okay with no actual titles? Would you give up an infinite number of title appearances for one win?
For example, from 85-95, would you rather be a Bears fan or a Bills fan? If Bears, how many more AFC titles would it take for you to change your mind? Is there any number that would do it?
i know a guy who was a bills fan when they were so good
…all those super bowl loses about broke him.
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Jan 23, 2011 12:30 AM CST up reply actions
See, that's another element. Some people are destroyed by that.
I know I wouldn’t even consider trading the Rangers WS loss for no appearance at all, though.
well how would you feel if they made the WS the next 3 years and lost all 4 WS?
heh
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Jan 23, 2011 12:35 AM CST up reply actions
I'd feel a lot better than if they never went at all.
I mean, it would haunt me forever and be no fun to watch the last outs of those seasons, but I’d take it over having the last out recorded earlier.
im more in the haunt me forever as opposed to the become a broken man category msyself...
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Jan 23, 2011 12:37 AM CST up reply actions
Longhorn fans bring this up all the time to Sooner fans.
Yes Stoops has taken the Sooners to 4 NC games and only one one but you can’t win if you don’t make it there. Is it frustrating hell yes but I would rather go and lose then go to the Holiday Bowl every year.
Hi, my name is Josey Wales and I'm a douche. Prove me wrong.
What I'm really interested in where each person's tipping point is.
I think I’d take a decade of pennants over one championship. I’d take a championship over 3-4 pennants in a row.
I’m not quite sure where in the middle of those two numbers I would say “that’s enough, I’ll forfeit a title and be okay with it.”
I would trade 10 years of suckage for 1 WS Title
Hi, my name is Josey Wales and I'm a douche. Prove me wrong.
Now 3 years from now I might feel different
Hi, my name is Josey Wales and I'm a douche. Prove me wrong.
If you were the Royals,
would you trade the farm for a bunch of rentals that guaranteed a WS this year?
by AsDevilsRun on Jan 23, 2011 12:50 AM CST up reply actions
The Royals have been to and won a WS
There is no guarantee that those prospects will win a WS either.
Hi, my name is Josey Wales and I'm a douche. Prove me wrong.
That's the point of the hypothetical.
Extended contention with the prospects (no guaranteed WS)?
Or rentals for a guaranteed WS, long-term outlook poor?
Also, the previous title is irrelevant in this hypothetical.
by AsDevilsRun on Jan 23, 2011 12:57 AM CST up reply actions
I would take the WS Title
Over 10 years of getting close and not winning.
Hi, my name is Josey Wales and I'm a douche. Prove me wrong.
Yeah
Look how long angels fans have been holding on to 2002
The snozberries taste like snozberries!!
by Chrom on Jan 23, 2011 1:08 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
arc projector, FTW!
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Jan 23, 2011 1:14 AM CST up reply actions
According to Chris Cagle, scars heal.
Ambition is a poor excuse for not having sense enough to be lazy.
you also
take no mess
The snozberries taste like snozberries!!
by Chrom on Jan 23, 2011 1:12 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
I hope they become the pirates
I hate them more than any franchise in sports. I wish they would get contracted. Most of it stems from their blog.
The snozberries taste like snozberries!!
by Chrom on Jan 23, 2011 1:17 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
yeah
I didn’t start really following the rangers till about 2004. Before that I played but couldn’t care less about watching it. It was boring. So when I started following them it was a period of dominance by the angels. At least with the yankees the rangers were in the playoffs. The angels were preventing that scenario when I started paying attention
The snozberries taste like snozberries!!
by Chrom on Jan 23, 2011 1:25 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
You'll find most people here hate the Angels more than the Yankees.
I hate them much, much more. And that’s even after dealing with Yankees fans on the internet for a decade and two Yankees sweeps in the 90s.
I haven't always hated the Angels more, though.
Hell, I haven’t even always hated the Angels more than the Mariners.
i think a lot of yankee hatred subsided
in october
The snozberries taste like snozberries!!
by Chrom on Jan 23, 2011 1:31 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
I think it's more rewarding to win with mercenaries than die trying with "your guys."
I say “I think” because I don’t actually know. None of my teams have ever won with mercenaries.
i think it is more rewarding to win...period.
heh
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Jan 23, 2011 1:09 AM CST up reply actions
messed up the reply, was supposed to be to scoop's post
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Jan 23, 2011 1:14 AM CST up reply actions
Not if it meant an immediate return to Royal-dom, a la the '97 Marlins.
Ambition is a poor excuse for not having sense enough to be lazy.
See, this is weird for me.
I wouldn’t trade the Rangers WS appearance for anything (except a win of course). But the Mavs loss in 2006 has had me somewhat soured on them ever since.
"The Angels are like the villain in the movie that isn't dead until he's been stabbed 150 times in the bath tub, yet he still might come back up one more time." - Eric Nadel
I'd rather be the '91-'05 Braves
than the Marlins.
Course the Braves got a championship, so not quite the same.
by AsDevilsRun on Jan 23, 2011 12:38 AM CST up reply actions
The pain of total organizational disembowelment two times over, though.
Compared against seeing Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz in their primes?
Give me the Braves, even without the championship.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
That sort of makes it a bad choice of examples on my part.
Confounding factors.
by AsDevilsRun on Jan 23, 2011 12:52 AM CST up reply actions
The real question would be a Braves-like run without any titles
It is hard to say who had that – the Royals of the late ‘70s-early ’80s? They lucked their way into one in ’85, but that wasn’t really the same team.
Go Rice Owls!
Football is different from baseball
I think there is more glory to non-championship seasons in baseball than in football, where the Superbowl is everything…
Go Rice Owls!
I agree, but I'm also a Super Bowl history nut.
I care about (and can tell you all of off the top of my head) the SB losers more than most people.
That's a tough one.
I know all those close calls the Oilers had when the Steelers kept knocking them out made die a little. I think after a while, just getting to the WC wouldn’t be enough for me.
Now, let me be clear:
I’m not just talking about consistently going to the playoffs. I’m talking about going to the title game repeatedly.
I could not handle getting there 10 years in a row and loosing
Hi, my name is Josey Wales and I'm a douche. Prove me wrong.
Oh, here's one.
I’d take another Holiday Bowl win over Texas before I’d take another Pac 10 title and Rose Bowl beating at the hands of OU.
I think. . .
I think.
The Bowl game thing, definitely. As much as I love the Rose Bowl, actually winning a significant Bowl game and ending the year happy I think I like better. I certainly feel more pride about that season.
BUT I wasn’t a Cougars fan back then, so I can’t rightly tell you how I felt as a fan each year.
A Pac 10 title is sure enticing, though.
I'm just giving a callback to your earlier post, and UT's salty FT work today v. Kansas.
Que sera, sera.
I hate losing because of free throw rates fluctuating.
It’s entirely related to how I get more angry when things go wrong do to luck and chance than when they go wrong because I made an honest mistake.
Not sure why, but things out of my control screwing me over are just more enraging to me. In sports, my teams losing because of the random variance of sports (BABIP, fumble luck, free throws falling more/less than usual, etc.) drives me more crazy than if they just legitimately screw up.
I know that I am not like everyone in those regards. I remember reading about Shane Battier laughing when the Lakers beat the Rockets after Kobe hit a game winning shot from a spot on the floor he’s awful at. He was laughing because he did everything right, and the Lakers won anyway. I’m not like Shane Battier. That would just make me more angry than had I let him beat me.
What about this?
You can guarantee the Rangers win the WS this year but none of your other teams will EVER win a championship again in your lifetime.
Would you do it?
I would do it
I have seen 4 NC Titles of the 7 from the Sooners
Hi, my name is Josey Wales and I'm a douche. Prove me wrong.
Yeah, this is a Rangers blog and all so I'm sure I'm in the minority. . .
. . . but even after having seen three Cowboys titles, I only want to see a Rangers championship ever-so-slightly more.
You can go ahead and guarantee the Cougars never winning a title because that’s already reality.
No way
"I fully expect to lose tonight" -- LSJ
by Dirk Diggler on Jan 23, 2011 8:32 AM CST up reply actions
Fuck no.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
Why?
I’m willing to give up another Sooners NC?
Hi, my name is Josey Wales and I'm a douche. Prove me wrong.
Any of the teams I support winning a championship for the rest of my life so the Rangers can win one?
Why in the hell would I do that?
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
Guess I'm different
I have seen my other teams win championships and not the Rangers. I’m really only a baseball and college football fan. So I didn’t have to consider other sports teams.
Hi, my name is Josey Wales and I'm a douche. Prove me wrong.
Yes, even though I'm an M's fan.
I’d do that deal in a heartbeat. And included in my ‘other teams’ list is the Yankees, BoSox, Angels, Cowboys, Eagles, whatever team LeBron is on…
by misterjonez on Jan 23, 2011 5:22 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Final answer:
It’s hard to say, since I’m not familiar with the feeling of either.
I know the pain of one lost championship, but since it was still a franchise-best, it didn’t hurt that long.
I don’t know how a title feels, so I can’t judge what it’s worth.
11 years of not making the playoffs was fairly miserable, though.
So…uh…non-answer.
It was time.
http://texas.rangers.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=13093691&topic_id=8878736&c_id=tex
Hi, my name is Josey Wales and I'm a douche. Prove me wrong.
i know its late, but this GIF cracks me up...
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Jan 23, 2011 12:52 AM CST reply actions 5 recs
i <3 mario kart
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Jan 23, 2011 12:56 AM CST up reply actions
hit a mushroom RIGHT before blue shell hit, but as it was going down.
aka, being very very very lucky
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Jan 23, 2011 1:02 AM CST up reply actions
I think I just figured it out.
It appears to be a Bob Sturm thing.
Took me about 15 minutes of Google hunting.
FIGJAM?
I’ve heard it since like ’06.
http://www.worldgolf.com/blogs/alan.katz/2006/02/06/why_players_on_the_pga_tour_call_phil_mi
And Perryman is going with the cancer patient snub thing, apparently.
I have a little technical Issue with some of the other SBnation blogs
Sometimes, when I’m scrolling down reading shit, the page automatically jumps up to the top for no reason. It happens on the dallas cowboy and seattle mariners ones. And a lot of others. At least it doesn’t happen here. Anyone else have this problem?
>mfw
Yes.
Only seems to happen when I use Opera.
"The Angels are like the villain in the movie that isn't dead until he's been stabbed 150 times in the bath tub, yet he still might come back up one more time." - Eric Nadel
chrome is pretty great
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Jan 23, 2011 1:36 AM CST up reply actions
I really like it too.
I just wish it had a menu bar and print preview.
"The Angels are like the villain in the movie that isn't dead until he's been stabbed 150 times in the bath tub, yet he still might come back up one more time." - Eric Nadel
I'd say it's a browser issue then.
Works fine for me in Chrome and Firefox.
"The Angels are like the villain in the movie that isn't dead until he's been stabbed 150 times in the bath tub, yet he still might come back up one more time." - Eric Nadel
It's because you where logged into the site for the first time.
For some reason in Opera you have to refresh the page after you visit an SBN site for the first time in a browsing session, or it’ll do that.
Ambition is a poor excuse for not having sense enough to be lazy.
Reading is fun!
"When we picked up [pitcher Dan] Haren, we picked up $12 million," Moreno told DiGiovanna. "If I’m going to spend $20 million [on Crawford] and go to $144 million without taking care of the bullpen or third base, as a fan, when do you get to the place where you say, ‘What are my expectations of the owner, and what am I willing to pay for a ticket?’ "
Earth to Arte – you didn’t take care of third base and overspent on an aging outfielder. You also dealt away a fan favorite – yes fan favorite Mike Napoli.
Now to answer your last question: I’m not sure what I’m willing to spend for a ticket right now. Probably not very much.
A wise man does not need advice and a fool won’t take it.
by angelslogic on Jan 23, 2011 8:14 AM CST reply actions
"I support you, Wash; I’ve always supported you," Young said
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
Oh yeah ZIPS the same ones who
thought that the V. Wells contract was a good signing at the time? Link:
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/blue_jays_signed_wel/
Yeah ZIPS is right on it, Kendry morales with 17 HR’s next year, LMFAO!
V. Wells WAR last year 4, Murphy 2.
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