FanPost

World Series Game #5 Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate every single game in the major leagues this season and am doing so for the World Series. I am posting the output of today's simulation, giving you a box score along with a table of the top 150 most likely final scores and the win expectancy of each team. My simulator incorporates a set of proprietary hitter and pitcher projections along with defense, park factors, weather, speed, splits, estimated actual lineups, a model for tiring pitchers and an engine for relieving pitchers based off of the score and the leverage index of the game (among many other things...). I simulated the game 100,000 times. You may notice that in the distribution of the likely final scores there are many one run home team victories near the top. This is due to the rules of baseball, with the home team batting last and sometimes winning by one run in walk off fashion. Also we run a simulation contest over at True Blue LA where you can wager pretend money on various prop bets from the game.  Feel free to join us.  Below is the data.

Simulation last ran Sunday at 10:30PM PST

Away Home Starting Pitchers Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas Runs Simulator Win% Simulator Runs
STL TEX C.Carpenter vs C.Wilson TEX 54.02% 8.1 56.28% 8.73

 


Note: Lineups were estimated the night before the game.

Box Score

Name AB Hits H1 H2 H3 HR RBI BB SO wOBA
Rafael Furcal 4.423 1.149 0.728 0.298 0.032 0.091 0.398 0.333 0.805 0.314
Allen Craig 4.343 1.074 0.654 0.264 0.004 0.152 0.481 0.326 1.163 0.311
Albert Pujols 4.159 1.201 0.712 0.271 0.002 0.216 0.595 0.432 0.601 0.373
Lance Berkman 3.906 1.02 0.63 0.2 0.018 0.172 0.529 0.557 0.97 0.354
Matt Holliday 3.964 1.076 0.586 0.331 0.003 0.155 0.552 0.428 1.011 0.354
David Freese 4.009 1.055 0.687 0.266 0.012 0.091 0.44 0.267 1.046 0.312
Yadier Molina 3.889 1.06 0.703 0.265 0.006 0.085 0.418 0.271 0.573 0.32
Jon Jay 3.837 1.016 0.731 0.188 0.033 0.063 0.367 0.21 0.862 0.301
Ryan Theriot 3.699 0.991 0.684 0.258 0.017 0.032 0.323 0.244 0.582 0.304
 
Ian Kinsler 4.196 1.165 0.704 0.251 0.03 0.18 0.499 0.395 0.546 0.354
Elvis Andrus 4.169 1.167 0.913 0.196 0.027 0.031 0.309 0.302 0.614 0.31
Josh Hamilton 4.156 1.306 0.758 0.302 0.069 0.176 0.623 0.299 0.84 0.387
Michael Young 4.067 1.265 0.926 0.237 0.034 0.067 0.476 0.235 0.596 0.344
Adrian Beltre 4.015 1.235 0.703 0.321 0.006 0.205 0.692 0.183 0.588 0.374
Nelson Cruz 3.852 1.047 0.606 0.249 0.011 0.18 0.555 0.226 0.929 0.34
Mike Napoli 3.649 1.017 0.611 0.235 0.004 0.167 0.511 0.323 0.885 0.354
David Murphy 3.609 1.037 0.712 0.19 0.027 0.108 0.421 0.29 0.652 0.343
Mitch Moreland 3.517 0.935 0.618 0.203 0.012 0.101 0.403 0.28 0.749 0.323

 

Name IP SO BB Hits HR PC FIP
Chris Carpenter 6.018 4.176 1.533 7.13 0.773 95.136 4.246
Jason Motte 0.424 0.363 0.102 0.444 0.04 6.599 3.443
Octavio Dotel 0.406 0.39 0.13 0.445 0.074 6.611 4.627
Marc Rzepczynski 0.641 0.533 0.307 0.715 0.091 10.869 4.828
Lance Lynn 0.358 0.31 0.14 0.411 0.062 5.971 4.911
Fernando Salas 0.557 0.456 0.203 0.666 0.103 9.253 5.052
Arthur Rhodes 0.254 0.162 0.113 0.344 0.069 4.382 6.758
Jake Westbrook 0.015 0.008 0.006 0.018 0.002 0.244 5.381
 
C.J. Wilson 6.098 5.213 2.125 6.261 0.647 97.809 3.915
Neftali Feliz 0.419 0.377 0.134 0.406 0.038 6.614 3.527
Mike Adams 0.44 0.404 0.092 0.438 0.045 6.741 3.311
Alexi Ogando 0.723 0.53 0.181 0.808 0.101 11.299 4.299
Mike Gonzalez 0.383 0.332 0.171 0.411 0.058 6.399 4.762
Scott Feldman 0.839 0.52 0.274 1.015 0.14 13.542 5.114
Darren Oliver 0.286 0.233 0.091 0.298 0.029 4.537 3.82
Mark Lowe 0.005 0.004 0.002 0.005 0.001 0.078 5.44

 


Top 150 Most Likely Final Scores

1 TEX 3-2   51 STL 4-0   101 TEX 11-3
2 TEX 4-3   52 TEX 6-0   102 STL 8-0
3 TEX 2-1   53 TEX 8-3   103 TEX 11-4
4 TEX 5-4   54 STL 7-1   104 TEX 10-9
5 STL 3-2   55 STL 8-3   105 TEX 11-1
6 STL 4-3   56 TEX 8-2   106 STL 9-0
7 TEX 4-2   57 STL 8-4   107 TEX 10-0
8 TEX 6-5   58 TEX 8-1   108 TEX 10-6
9 STL 2-1   59 TEX 8-4   109 TEX 11-5
10 TEX 3-1   60 STL 5-0   110 TEX 10-7
11 STL 4-2   61 STL 8-2   111 STL 10-7
12 STL 5-4   62 TEX 8-6   112 STL 11-2
13 TEX 5-3   63 STL 8-5   113 STL 11-4
14 TEX 5-2   64 TEX 8-5   114 STL 11-5
15 TEX 4-1   65 TEX 7-0   115 TEX 12-2
16 STL 3-1   66 TEX 9-2   116 STL 10-8
17 STL 5-3   67 STL 8-6   117 STL 11-3
18 TEX 1-0   68 STL 6-0   118 TEX 12-3
19 STL 5-2   69 TEX 9-3   119 STL 11-1
20 STL 6-5   70 STL 8-7   120 TEX 11-0
21 TEX 2-0   71 TEX 9-1   121 TEX 11-6
22 TEX 6-4   72 TEX 9-4   122 STL 11-6
23 TEX 6-3   73 STL 8-1   123 TEX 10-8
24 STL 6-4   74 STL 9-4   124 TEX 12-4
25 TEX 6-2   75 STL 9-3   125 STL 10-9
26 TEX 7-6   76 STL 9-5   126 TEX 12-1
27 TEX 5-1   77 TEX 8-0   127 STL 12-3
28 STL 4-1   78 TEX 9-8   128 STL 12-2
29 STL 6-3   79 STL 9-2   129 TEX 11-7
30 TEX 3-0   80 TEX 9-5   130 STL 10-0
31 STL 5-1   81 TEX 10-2   131 STL 12-4
32 STL 6-2   82 STL 9-7   132 TEX 13-2
33 TEX 6-1   83 STL 7-0   133 TEX 13-3
34 TEX 4-0   84 TEX 9-6   134 STL 11-8
35 STL 2-0   85 STL 9-1   135 TEX 12-0
36 STL 7-4   86 STL 9-6   136 STL 11-7
37 TEX 7-3   87 STL 10-3   137 TEX 11-10
38 STL 1-0   88 TEX 10-1   138 TEX 12-6
39 TEX 7-2   89 TEX 10-3   139 STL 12-5
40 TEX 7-4   90 TEX 10-4   140 TEX 12-5
41 TEX 5-0   91 TEX 9-0   141 TEX 13-1
42 STL 7-3   92 TEX 9-7   142 TEX 13-4
43 TEX 7-5   93 STL 10-4   143 STL 12-6
44 STL 7-6   94 STL 10-2   144 STL 13-3
45 STL 7-5   95 STL 10-5   145 STL 11-9
46 TEX 7-1   96 STL 9-8   146 STL 13-6
47 STL 6-1   97 TEX 11-2   147 TEX 11-8
48 STL 7-2   98 STL 10-1   148 STL 12-7
49 STL 3-0   99 TEX 10-5   149 TEX 13-5
50 TEX 8-7   100 STL 10-6   150 STL 12-1


Note: I have Lance Berkman and Michael Young playing DH in this simulation.