I used my simulator to simulate every single game in the major leagues this season and am doing so for the World Series. I am posting the output of today's simulation, giving you a box score along with a table of the top 150 most likely final scores and the win expectancy of each team. My simulator incorporates a set of proprietary hitter and pitcher projections along with defense, park factors, weather, speed, splits, estimated actual lineups, a model for tiring pitchers and an engine for relieving pitchers based off of the score and the leverage index of the game (among many other things...). I simulated the game 100,000 times. You may notice that in the distribution of the likely final scores there are many one run home team victories near the top. This is due to the rules of baseball, with the home team batting last and sometimes winning by one run in walk off fashion. Below is the data.
Simulation last ranFriday at 3:345M PST
Away | Home | Starting Pitchers | Favorite | Vegas Win% | Vegas Runs | Simulator Win% | Simulator Runs |
TEX | STL | M.Harrison vs C.Carpenter | STL | 55.56% | 7.8 | 53.70% | 7.11 |
Note: These are the actual starting lineups
Box Score
Name | AB | Hits | H1 | H2 | H3 | HR | RBI | BB | SO | wOBA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ian Kinsler | 4.314 | 1.126 | 0.74 | 0.248 | 0.018 | 0.12 | 0.333 | 0.341 | 0.661 | 0.318 |
Elvis Andrus | 4.254 | 1.156 | 0.907 | 0.204 | 0.017 | 0.026 | 0.235 | 0.264 | 0.731 | 0.296 |
Josh Hamilton | 4.246 | 1.257 | 0.804 | 0.297 | 0.04 | 0.116 | 0.454 | 0.276 | 0.958 | 0.349 |
Michael Young | 4.158 | 1.262 | 0.951 | 0.239 | 0.018 | 0.053 | 0.416 | 0.221 | 0.709 | 0.33 |
Adrian Beltre | 4.106 | 1.183 | 0.744 | 0.299 | 0.004 | 0.136 | 0.553 | 0.172 | 0.704 | 0.336 |
Nelson Cruz | 3.96 | 1.004 | 0.643 | 0.233 | 0.007 | 0.122 | 0.45 | 0.206 | 1.071 | 0.303 |
Mike Napoli | 3.773 | 0.98 | 0.646 | 0.224 | 0.003 | 0.107 | 0.408 | 0.286 | 1.019 | 0.315 |
David Murphy | 3.539 | 0.774 | 0.55 | 0.146 | 0.01 | 0.067 | 0.3 | 0.443 | 1.312 | 0.287 |
Pitchers Spot | 3.729 | 0.433 | 0.354 | 0.069 | 0.002 | 0.008 | 0.124 | 0.108 | 1.927 | 0.131 |
Ryan Theriot | 4.257 | 1.207 | 0.83 | 0.323 | 0.022 | 0.033 | 0.273 | 0.326 | 0.532 | 0.323 |
Allen Craig | 4.098 | 1.096 | 0.722 | 0.265 | 0.005 | 0.104 | 0.364 | 0.344 | 0.846 | 0.323 |
Albert Pujols | 3.938 | 1.157 | 0.744 | 0.265 | 0.003 | 0.145 | 0.468 | 0.449 | 0.459 | 0.367 |
Lance Berkman | 3.7 | 1.021 | 0.69 | 0.205 | 0.016 | 0.109 | 0.457 | 0.557 | 0.71 | 0.356 |
David Freese | 3.907 | 1.116 | 0.753 | 0.285 | 0.013 | 0.065 | 0.457 | 0.289 | 0.787 | 0.33 |
Yadier Molina | 3.774 | 1.067 | 0.735 | 0.266 | 0.006 | 0.06 | 0.419 | 0.297 | 0.456 | 0.327 |
Rafael Furcal | 3.628 | 0.995 | 0.65 | 0.261 | 0.032 | 0.052 | 0.397 | 0.293 | 0.52 | 0.324 |
Skip Schumaker | 3.583 | 1.009 | 0.753 | 0.199 | 0.026 | 0.031 | 0.362 | 0.257 | 0.511 | 0.315 |
Pitchers Spot | 3.587 | 0.49 | 0.389 | 0.089 | 0.003 | 0.008 | 0.163 | 0.161 | 1.478 | 0.159 |
Name | IP | SO | BB | Hits | HR | PC | FIP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Matt Harrison | 6.247 | 4.19 | 2.119 | 6.622 | 0.424 | 98.682 | 3.759 |
Neftali Feliz | 0.455 | 0.422 | 0.156 | 0.407 | 0.022 | 7.146 | 3.011 |
Mike Adams | 0.427 | 0.388 | 0.099 | 0.403 | 0.026 | 6.515 | 2.857 |
Alexi Ogando | 0.663 | 0.477 | 0.18 | 0.697 | 0.054 | 10.279 | 3.637 |
Mike Gonzalez | 0.309 | 0.265 | 0.146 | 0.308 | 0.03 | 5.123 | 4.159 |
C.J. Wilson | 0.47 | 0.407 | 0.191 | 0.457 | 0.029 | 7.606 | 3.48 |
Scott Feldman | 0.224 | 0.139 | 0.077 | 0.248 | 0.021 | 3.564 | 4.186 |
Darren Oliver | 0.015 | 0.012 | 0.005 | 0.015 | 0.001 | 0.239 | 3.584 |
Chris Carpenter | 6.613 | 5.93 | 1.404 | 6.741 | 0.515 | 101.734 | 3.055 |
Jason Motte | 0.462 | 0.578 | 0.102 | 0.371 | 0.025 | 7.067 | 2.052 |
Octavio Dotel | 0.47 | 0.629 | 0.136 | 0.399 | 0.049 | 7.493 | 2.742 |
Marc Rzepczynski | 0.662 | 0.759 | 0.305 | 0.614 | 0.057 | 11.105 | 3.41 |
Edwin Jackson | 0.343 | 0.33 | 0.11 | 0.338 | 0.031 | 5.469 | 3.398 |
Lance Lynn | 0.577 | 0.665 | 0.203 | 0.543 | 0.061 | 9.387 | 3.326 |
Fernando Salas | 0.173 | 0.198 | 0.056 | 0.163 | 0.019 | 2.791 | 3.276 |
Jake Westbrook | 0.007 | 0.005 | 0.003 | 0.007 | 0.001 | 0.115 | 3.961 |
Top 150 Most Likely Final Scores
1 STL 3-2 | 51 TEX 7-1 | 101 TEX 11-2 | ||
2 STL 4-3 | 52 STL 6-0 | 102 STL 9-7 | ||
3 STL 2-1 | 53 STL 7-5 | 103 TEX 10-6 | ||
4 STL 5-4 | 54 STL 8-7 | 104 STL 11-3 | ||
5 TEX 3-2 | 55 TEX 8-2 | 105 STL 11-2 | ||
6 TEX 4-3 | 56 TEX 8-3 | 106 STL 10-5 | ||
7 TEX 2-1 | 57 STL 8-2 | 107 STL 10-6 | ||
8 STL 4-2 | 58 TEX 6-0 | 108 TEX 11-4 | ||
9 STL 3-1 | 59 STL 8-3 | 109 TEX 11-1 | ||
10 TEX 4-2 | 60 TEX 8-4 | 110 STL 10-0 | ||
11 TEX 3-1 | 61 STL 8-1 | 111 TEX 11-5 | ||
12 STL 6-5 | 62 TEX 8-5 | 112 TEX 10-7 | ||
13 TEX 5-4 | 63 STL 8-4 | 113 TEX 10-0 | ||
14 TEX 5-3 | 64 STL 7-0 | 114 STL 10-9 | ||
15 STL 4-1 | 65 TEX 8-1 | 115 STL 10-7 | ||
16 STL 5-3 | 66 STL 8-5 | 116 STL 11-4 | ||
17 STL 5-2 | 67 STL 9-2 | 117 TEX 12-2 | ||
18 STL 1-0 | 68 TEX 8-6 | 118 STL 11-5 | ||
19 TEX 5-2 | 69 TEX 7-0 | 119 TEX 12-3 | ||
20 TEX 4-1 | 70 TEX 9-3 | 120 TEX 10-8 | ||
21 STL 2-0 | 71 TEX 9-2 | 121 STL 12-1 | ||
22 STL 5-1 | 72 TEX 9-1 | 122 STL 12-2 | ||
23 TEX 2-0 | 73 TEX 8-7 | 123 TEX 11-6 | ||
24 STL 6-3 | 74 STL 9-3 | 124 STL 12-3 | ||
25 TEX 6-3 | 75 TEX 9-4 | 125 TEX 11-0 | ||
26 STL 3-0 | 76 STL 8-6 | 126 TEX 12-1 | ||
27 TEX 6-5 | 77 STL 9-1 | 127 STL 12-4 | ||
28 STL 6-4 | 78 STL 8-0 | 128 TEX 12-4 | ||
29 TEX 6-4 | 79 STL 9-4 | 129 STL 11-6 | ||
30 TEX 5-1 | 80 STL 9-8 | 130 STL 10-8 | ||
31 TEX 1-0 | 81 TEX 9-5 | 131 STL 11-0 | ||
32 STL 6-2 | 82 STL 9-5 | 132 TEX 11-7 | ||
33 TEX 6-2 | 83 TEX 8-0 | 133 TEX 12-5 | ||
34 STL 7-6 | 84 TEX 9-6 | 134 STL 12-5 | ||
35 TEX 3-0 | 85 TEX 10-2 | 135 TEX 13-2 | ||
36 STL 4-0 | 86 TEX 10-3 | 136 TEX 11-8 | ||
37 STL 6-1 | 87 TEX 10-4 | 137 TEX 10-9 | ||
38 TEX 6-1 | 88 STL 10-1 | 138 STL 11-10 | ||
39 TEX 7-3 | 89 STL 10-2 | 139 STL 13-2 | ||
40 TEX 7-4 | 90 STL 9-6 | 140 TEX 13-3 | ||
41 STL 5-0 | 91 STL 10-3 | 141 STL 11-7 | ||
42 TEX 4-0 | 92 STL 10-4 | 142 STL 12-0 | ||
43 TEX 7-2 | 93 TEX 9-7 | 143 STL 13-3 | ||
44 STL 7-3 | 94 TEX 10-1 | 144 STL 13-4 | ||
45 STL 7-2 | 95 STL 9-0 | 145 TEX 12-6 | ||
46 TEX 7-5 | 96 TEX 10-5 | 146 TEX 13-1 | ||
47 STL 7-4 | 97 TEX 9-0 | 147 TEX 13-5 | ||
48 STL 7-1 | 98 TEX 9-8 | 148 TEX 12-0 | ||
49 TEX 5-0 | 99 TEX 11-3 | 149 STL 12-6 | ||
50 TEX 7-6 | 100 STL 11-1 | 150 STL 13-1 |