2011 Community Projections Review: Elvis Andrus

by Brad on Nov 11, 2011 1:00 PM CST

The LSB community doesn't agree on much... but one thing it was pretty much on the same page about was what Elvis Andrus would do in 2011 for the Texas Rangers. The standard deviation for his Runs Created (RC) was only 8.3, third lowest on the team and well below the other regular starters who ranged from 11.2 to 14.0. The slash line for Elvis in 2010 was .265 / .342 / .301 for a .643 OPS in 674 PA. LSB generally believed he would hit about the same, but with a bump in SLG to .360, closer to the .373 SLG he put up in 2009 rookie season.

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	RMSE
LSB Average	666.6	.277	.347	.360	.707	0.49%
ZiPS	679.0	.269	.344	.338	.682	3.83%
Marcel	591.0	.273	.344	.356	.699	5.73%
2011 Results	665.0	.279	.347	.361	.708	0.00%

In this community projection the LSB average absolutely nailed it. The 0.49% RMSE was the absolute lowest on any player projection for 2011 by any person or system. It was off by only 1.6 PA, 2 AVG points and 1 SLG point. About as close to exactly calling what he'd do as you can get. Crowd sourcing at it's finest and evidence that LSB knows Elvis better than anyone.

2011 was a nice step forward for Elvis who approached league average in offense with a wRC+ of 96 to go with his impressive glove and league leading base running skills.

Using a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) approach [lower is better] the top and bottom individual projections have Longhorn at the top of the projections [double congrats as this is Longhorn's second #1 finish] and hornedfrogs45 at the bottom [indisputable proof I suppose of UT > TCU]. Everyone's rankings can be found in this Google Spreadsheet and the top and bottom 5 shake out as:

Top 5	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	RMSE
1. Longhorn	657	.274	.351	.360	.711	1.23%
2. Endyr	660	.277	.345	.350	.695	1.64%
3. utlonghorn24	668	.274	.338	.356	.694	1.74%
4. hotshot215	655	.272	.345	.370	.715	1.94%
5. hefe300	688	.282	.353	.363	.716	2.03%

Bottom 5	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	RMSE
98. LiamP	580	.265	.320	.330	.650	8.98%
99. Poltergeist	705	.264	.345	.300	.645	9.37%
100. JBImaknee	701	.290	.370	.420	.790	9.43%
101. Robert L. Bishop	580	.250	.320	.320	.640	10.73%
102. hornedfrogs45	643	.247	.301	.287	.588	13.59%

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Comments

14th!

A personal best!

"...out of the shadows of unprecedented success, the sun shines down upon this team waiting to thrill anew." - ghostofErikThompson

by jam0152 on Nov 11, 2011 1:06 PM CST reply actions

3 PAs and 1/1000 of an OPS point off

"...out of the shadows of unprecedented success, the sun shines down upon this team waiting to thrill anew." - ghostofErikThompson

by jam0152 on Nov 11, 2011 1:08 PM CST up reply actions

Since the LSB collective had the closest projection...

I’m declaring that everyone wins!

Except JBI. JBI never wins.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Nov 11, 2011 1:08 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs

2!

This was the first one I participated in, so I am going with beginner’s luck, and guessing that it will be my greatest achievement in projecting performance.

by Endyr on Nov 11, 2011 1:13 PM CST reply actions

i have done horribly on these

Bachman/Beck 2012
I wish I were the 1%

by gossamer on Nov 11, 2011 1:20 PM CST reply actions

Not as bad as me ha

by Mark from OC on Nov 11, 2011 2:11 PM CST up reply actions

.

@JSalisburyCSN Jim Salisbury
The Phils and Papelbon have reached agreement sources tell CSNPhilly.com. Pending physical.

by octoberty on Nov 11, 2011 1:26 PM CST reply actions

That was quicker than I thought.

I said earlier this morning he would be a Phillie soon. I didn’t think it would be this soon.

"Calmer than you are dude"

by Arlington Stadium Legend on Nov 11, 2011 1:37 PM CST up reply actions

And the details.

Sources say Papelbon deal is four years and approaches $50 million, pending physical #phillies

So it WASN’T about money for Madson. It was about Papelbon. Ouch.

by Heebs on Nov 11, 2011 1:41 PM CST up reply actions

That's an insane amount of money.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Nov 11, 2011 1:42 PM CST up reply actions

It really, really is.

Phillies are desperate.

by Heebs on Nov 11, 2011 1:42 PM CST up reply actions

Ruben Amaro doing Ruben Amaroings.

by LiamP on Nov 11, 2011 1:43 PM CST up reply actions

Are they trying to make people forget the Howard deal?

"Calmer than you are dude"

by Arlington Stadium Legend on Nov 11, 2011 1:43 PM CST up reply actions

Replacing the Ibanez deal.

by octoberty on Nov 11, 2011 1:44 PM CST up reply actions

They are like the little kid with money in their pocket.

You know you don’t HAVE to spend it right?

"Calmer than you are dude"

by Arlington Stadium Legend on Nov 11, 2011 1:45 PM CST up reply actions

For a douche bag who wears tights and glares at everybody like he wants to fight

or for a closer?

by CO Ranger on Nov 11, 2011 1:46 PM CST up reply actions

Happy to be wrong with these, as it generally means the player has exceed base-level expectations.

by LiamP on Nov 11, 2011 1:34 PM CST up reply actions

Absolutely.

lonestarball Adam J. Morris
I’m interested RT @jcrasnick: Broxton is probably looking at a one-year deal to rebuild his value and go out on the market next winter.

by octoberty on Nov 11, 2011 1:35 PM CST reply actions

WANTWANTWANTWANTWANTWANTWANT

by LiamP on Nov 11, 2011 1:38 PM CST up reply actions

One year deal?

Hell yes

by Dirk Diggler on Nov 11, 2011 1:45 PM CST up reply actions

get that shit done son

NO This is why i dont come here so much anymore. it has become a destination for certain types which i am not. Love the rangers, not this -- Mark from OC on Arrested Development

Justin Verlander? I piss on Justin Verlander --AJM

by shock00 on Nov 11, 2011 1:45 PM CST up reply actions

Option for a 2nd

would ya?

"Calmer than you are dude"

by Arlington Stadium Legend on Nov 11, 2011 1:46 PM CST up reply actions

Of course.

Big option, medium buyout.

by Heebs on Nov 11, 2011 1:46 PM CST up reply actions

He wouldn't do a team, I don't think.

by octoberty on Nov 11, 2011 1:46 PM CST up reply actions

Team option or vesting option?

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Nov 11, 2011 1:46 PM CST up reply actions

Team option

is probably not going to happen unless he knows he isn’t right. Vesting would be a nice cherry on top though.

"Calmer than you are dude"

by Arlington Stadium Legend on Nov 11, 2011 1:47 PM CST up reply actions

Vesting Option of 65 Innings Pitched or 30 Saves.

Or Team Option. Both at $8M. $1.5M buyout on the team option.

by Heebs on Nov 11, 2011 1:50 PM CST up reply actions

Thad?

by TheHuntforRedOctober on Nov 11, 2011 1:54 PM CST up reply actions

Sure

I’d do a vesting one.

I’m not sure he’d go for it though

by Dirk Diggler on Nov 11, 2011 1:47 PM CST up reply actions

I agree that it would be a tough sell.

Thought process being if I’m good enough to meet the requirements, I’ll be getting a ton of money next off season.

"Calmer than you are dude"

by Arlington Stadium Legend on Nov 11, 2011 1:48 PM CST up reply actions

Concur.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Nov 11, 2011 1:52 PM CST up reply actions

Broxton on a 1-yr deal would be fantastic

But, I think a lot of other teams are thinking similarly

by Jobu. on Nov 11, 2011 3:22 PM CST up reply actions

Anyone else get the feeling

the Marlins are going to try their hardest to moneywhip one of these FA’s into coming to Miami?

"Calmer than you are dude"

by Arlington Stadium Legend on Nov 11, 2011 1:39 PM CST reply actions

It's gonna be Reyes.

by octoberty on Nov 11, 2011 1:39 PM CST up reply actions

I think so too.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Nov 11, 2011 1:42 PM CST up reply actions

Seems the most logical choice

because I don’t think competition will be as steep.

"Calmer than you are dude"

by Arlington Stadium Legend on Nov 11, 2011 1:42 PM CST up reply actions

I think they're going to throw 250 mil at Pujols, I'm just not sure he'd go there.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Nov 11, 2011 1:53 PM CST up reply actions

what do they do with Hanley then?

are they considering a move to the OF or something?

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Nov 11, 2011 1:54 PM CST up reply actions

Not sure. But Hanely is endorsing the move big time.

Either 3rd or the OF, I guess.

by octoberty on Nov 11, 2011 1:55 PM CST up reply actions

Hanley is like the anti-Michael Young... in every way.

by octoberty on Nov 11, 2011 1:58 PM CST up reply actions

3B

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Nov 11, 2011 1:55 PM CST up reply actions

ah, forgot

all they had over there was Dominguez.

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Nov 11, 2011 1:57 PM CST up reply actions

Why not 2B?

by LiamP on Nov 11, 2011 1:58 PM CST up reply actions

(I know the rumored move is to 3B, but his range can't be that bad to not be able to handle 2B)

by LiamP on Nov 11, 2011 1:59 PM CST up reply actions

I'm purely going on the rumors.

I suspect he could probably handle second.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Nov 11, 2011 2:01 PM CST up reply actions

I'm not sure his agent would approve of it.

by octoberty on Nov 11, 2011 2:03 PM CST up reply actions

But 3B is OK?

by LiamP on Nov 11, 2011 2:04 PM CST up reply actions

I'm just throwing it out there... to be shot down is fine.

by octoberty on Nov 11, 2011 2:05 PM CST up reply actions

lol

ProspectInsider Jason A. Churchill
Per inning pitched: Papelbon — $178k … Halladay — $85K
13 seconds ago

by octoberty on Nov 11, 2011 1:56 PM CST reply actions

The fact that Papeldouche got 50 mil is sickening, but not surprising.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Nov 11, 2011 2:07 PM CST up reply actions

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Now hearing Papelbon’s deal with Phillies will include a vesting option. If exercised, would make total package worth more than $60 million.

by Heebs on Nov 11, 2011 2:09 PM CST up reply actions

That doesn't take into account the save factor

by Jobu. on Nov 11, 2011 3:23 PM CST up reply actions

I was going to say that's not as bad as it seems

Because elite RP’s give up less runs per inning than starting pitchers anyways.

But last 2 years Papelbon has a 145 and 112 ERA+ compared to 164 and 167 for Halladay.

Career is 197 ERA+ for Papelbon, 138+ for Halladay. I forgot how dominant Papelbon used to be when he put up sub-2 ERA’s all the time. That’s not what the Phillies are getting though.

by todmod on Nov 11, 2011 3:32 PM CST up reply actions

by Brad on Nov 11, 2011 2:03 PM CST up reply actions

Jamey Carroll's got a really weird career path

He turns 38 in February. His first year in the bigs was 10 years ago. Why are the Twins trying to sign him? They have a million younger Jamey Carolls. They collect them.

by Heebs on Nov 11, 2011 2:08 PM CST reply actions