2011 Community Projections Review: Julio Borbon

by Brad on Nov 17, 2011 1:00 PM CST

BALTIMORE, MD - APRIL 09: Julio Borbon #20 of the Texas Rangers reacts after striking out against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on April 9, 2011 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)

There's always going to be some misses where the unexpected occurs. Julio Borbon in 2011 is on that list. He got hurt in mid May prompting the Texas Rangers called up Endy Chavez and Borbon was never heard from again. The projections were fairly meager only expecting a very small improvement from his 2010 season that had 468 PA and a .649 OPS.

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	RMSE
LSB Average	431.8	.279	.320	.364	.684	170.36%
ZiPS	644.0	.289	.329	.368	.697	278.64%
Marcel	452.0	.283	.333	.383	.715	180.76%
2011 Results	98.0	.270	.305	.348	.653	0.00%

With only 98 PA and a .653 OPS, Borbon didn't have much of an opportunity to take a step forward. On the other hand... we got several months of mind bending by Endy Chavez to troll the American League.

There isn't a top five or bottom five. Everyone was really really wrong. The rankings can be found in this Google Spreadsheet if you really want to look at the carnage.

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Comments

Whoa, Ryno.

"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz

"Baseball's all that's real" - JB

by Ryin A on Nov 17, 2011 1:12 PM CST via mobile reply actions

Sad

12th, my best finish so far.

I shortened my sig so I wouldn't be frowned upon at Lookout Landing

by chrisR on Nov 17, 2011 1:13 PM CST reply actions

mmm, 261.31% rmse

by AjaxJones on Nov 17, 2011 1:30 PM CST reply actions

lolwut

I used to own Mickey Tettleton's couch.

by Pith on Nov 17, 2011 1:52 PM CST reply actions

What is up with Borbon now?

I was a Ranger fan when being a Rangers fan wasn't cool.

by JTodd on Nov 17, 2011 1:56 PM CST reply actions

Nothing really.

He got hurt in May… healed up. Instead of bringing him off the DL they assigned to AAA and he got hurt again in July and missed the rest of the year.

He’s still on the club and will probably compete for the CF job next spring.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Nov 17, 2011 1:58 PM CST up reply actions

who is in CF next season? gentry, borbon, king leonys?

"God dammit TAG I swear to God if you keep this "It was a close play" shit up all night I will send you cookies made from my own shit" -River Fenix 8/26/2011

"this is a big reason I decided not to convert to Islam now if it was 72 skanks? Different story, my friend" Bob Loblaw 9/2/2011

by I am Neftali Feliz on Nov 17, 2011 2:09 PM CST up reply actions

Yes.

Of those Leonys is the least likely.

They might also bring back Endy or someone like him.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Nov 17, 2011 2:11 PM CST up reply actions

He still sucks

by SoWasRed on Nov 17, 2011 7:43 PM CST up reply actions

Rubensierra's prediction was pretty money, considering

by Jobu. on Nov 17, 2011 2:01 PM CST reply actions

PA really drove the scoring

The RMSE sort puts the PA column in perfect ascending order.

"Nap-O-Li! Nap-O-Li! Nap-O-Li!" - 51,351 fans on 10/01/11

by NorCalRangersFan on Nov 17, 2011 2:34 PM CST reply actions

Well... are you going to consider the slash line that Borbon had in 98 PA valid?

When someone’s season is that short… nothing is valid.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Nov 17, 2011 2:37 PM CST up reply actions

yep, Borbon was pretty much an invalid

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Nov 17, 2011 3:46 PM CST up reply actions

I wasn't criticizing the method of calculation

I was just pointing that the method caused those two columns in the spreadsheet to be perfectly inversely proportional.

"Nap-O-Li! Nap-O-Li! Nap-O-Li!" - 51,351 fans on 10/01/11

by NorCalRangersFan on Nov 18, 2011 12:26 AM CST up reply actions

CF this year

I assume a Gentry/lefty platoon. Although Gentry was OK vs. Rightys too and got better as year went on. Small sample though, but the trends are positive. With a guy like Gentry, it’s all about obp. Once he’s on 1st, he’s nearly a sure thing to take 2nd if he goes for it, and the glove is way above average with his closing speed.

Gentry being a righty can probably allow us to ease Martin into what I assume they want, which is full time CF, starting out as just a platoon to get his feet wet.

Borbon is a mystery. Tough break with the injuries, but when he was here, flashes of "WOW!:, and a lot “HUH?” HE can still get it together, but time is flying by and he needs to make big progress fast.

Baseball's hard, guys. I mean, it really is. You can love it but, believe me, it don't always love you back. It's kind of like dating a German chick, you know?

by Buttermaker on Nov 17, 2011 2:49 PM CST reply actions

gentry/borbon platoon? im okay with this.

"God dammit TAG I swear to God if you keep this "It was a close play" shit up all night I will send you cookies made from my own shit" -River Fenix 8/26/2011

"this is a big reason I decided not to convert to Islam now if it was 72 skanks? Different story, my friend" Bob Loblaw 9/2/2011

by I am Neftali Feliz on Nov 17, 2011 3:09 PM CST up reply actions

Isn't WAS still looking for a CF'er and leadoff-hitter?

I imagine they’re shooting for a bigger-name but Sizemore can’t play CF anymore. Deal them Borbon and sign Rick Ankiel to backup CF along with Gentry until Martin is ready.

"I'm a unitard!" - Ralph Wiggum

by stupidsexyflanders on Nov 17, 2011 3:19 PM CST up reply actions

flashes of WOW?

I must have missed it.

by RangerMad on Nov 17, 2011 6:15 PM CST up reply actions

guy can work the bases

Football can go to hell. The Rangers aren't ready for football season and neither am I.

by WyoRanger on Nov 17, 2011 6:27 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

He's had his flashes.

When he first came up and June in 2010.

Flashes don’t make a strip show, however…

by LSJ on Nov 17, 2011 7:07 PM CST up reply actions

2009 was WOW!

short sample, but in 2009, looked like Carl Crawford Jr. a bit with fantastic #s vs. righties…. 2010, he regressed badly at the plate and his walk rate, which is key to a guy as fast as him, plummeted. On defense, there were a few gappers I was sure were hits,but he ran them down and caught them quite easily. I can’t remember a player ever quite like Borbon who got worse every year, though 2011 was bad luck with the injuries, but it appeared from what little I saw he forgot how to play defense.

Hope the injuries haven’t take a step from him, because speed was/is his thing.

Baseball's hard, guys. I mean, it really is. You can love it but, believe me, it don't always love you back. It's kind of like dating a German chick, you know?

by Buttermaker on Nov 17, 2011 10:39 PM CST up reply actions

Other than HRs

Full-time gentry probably beats a platoon with Ankiel. Ankiels obp isn’t going to cut it.

Baseball's hard, guys. I mean, it really is. You can love it but, believe me, it don't always love you back. It's kind of like dating a German chick, you know?

by Buttermaker on Nov 17, 2011 4:36 PM CST reply actions

Throw out PA!

I wonder what the results would like if you throw out PA. I was closer in ever stat , but because of 4 PA, I finished south of the person 1 spot north of me.

by James Welch on Nov 17, 2011 5:11 PM CST reply actions

That would be cool.

I was almost dead on with Borbon discounting PAs.

by Mark from OC on Nov 17, 2011 5:16 PM CST up reply actions

Or maybe if it were devalued a bit

by Jobu. on Nov 17, 2011 5:43 PM CST up reply actions

Throwing them out would be cooler

by Mark from OC on Nov 17, 2011 6:00 PM CST up reply actions

When we finish all the players that shows how people did without PA.

But PA is relevant. A slash line by itself isn’t a good measure of production.

If a guy has only 50 PA, but he hit .450 / .550 / .800… who cares?

Or if he only plays half a season.

I’m open to discussing it more next year… but PA is still very very important in terms of baseball production provided.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Nov 17, 2011 6:02 PM CST up reply actions

PA thrown out version

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuOFZr-eqB1LdHF1SHlEVFZfVXF3dFJRLWFDZlV4Rmc

by James Welch on Nov 17, 2011 6:04 PM CST up reply actions

This one dropped me one position, so I immediately denounce it's presence.

"I don't really like pitchers." - Nelson Cruz

by AceJC on Nov 17, 2011 6:29 PM CST up reply actions

I do not like this updated list.

"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz

"Baseball's all that's real" - JB

by Ryin A on Nov 17, 2011 6:48 PM CST up reply actions

i jumped nearly 60 spots with this one

I’ll take it. Still not as good as being in the top 10 in the last two.

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.

by NothinG on Nov 17, 2011 10:53 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

This will be my only top 5 all year

(unless someone goes back and does the other ones without PAs ha)

by Mark from OC on Nov 18, 2011 12:47 AM CST up reply actions

I too think it should be out

Or at least weighed less heavily. You can anticipate BA, OBP and SLG but not whether a guy gets traded or injured. Yes, we all know who is an injury risk but have no idea if it’s 20 games or a 120. A season is a sss for health.

Football can go to hell. The Rangers aren't ready for football season and neither am I.

by WyoRanger on Nov 17, 2011 6:38 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

I agree that something needs to be done.

But I’m not sure what.

Though part of this is a bit of guess how many jelly beans are in the jar.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Nov 17, 2011 6:41 PM CST up reply actions

1,139?

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.

by NothinG on Nov 17, 2011 10:54 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Just get rid of the PA aspect

We aren’t constructing a team just predicting the team ninja’d to us. We don’t predict any other counting stats so why PAs?

Football can go to hell. The Rangers aren't ready for football season and neither am I.

by WyoRanger on Nov 17, 2011 11:17 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

This is a good idea

by Mark from OC on Nov 18, 2011 12:48 AM CST up reply actions

Because that's how Adam set up back in March and how it was done in previous seasons.

I didn’t invent the Community Projections… I just tabulated them and stuck them in spreadsheets for people to look at.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Nov 18, 2011 7:11 AM CST up reply actions

Woo hoo 2nd out of LSB'ers

I was right in the middle of a fucking reptile zoo! And somebody was giving booze to these god damn things! It wont be long now, before they tear us to shreds.

by Poltergeist on Nov 18, 2011 11:53 AM CST reply actions