FanPost

2011 Rangers, Against The Odds

Here is a look at how the Rangers 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Rangers games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5523 which translates to an expected win total of 89.47 games.  If you do the same for my simulation of each Rangers game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5601 or 90.73 wins.  The Rangers actually went 96-66 on the season.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Rangers were the largest favorite to win.

Rank Date Away SP Home SP Away Home Fave Fave Win Perc TEX Win Perc Sim TEX Win Perc Winning Team Away Runs Home Runs Total Runs
1 09-23-2011 Anthony Vasquez Matt Harrison SEA TEX TEX 74.293 74.293 73.01 TEX 3 5 8
2 07-02-11 Brad Hand Derek Holland FLA TEX TEX 70.888 70.888 70.943 FLA 9 5 14
3 08-27-2011 Ervin Santana C.J. Wilson LAA TEX TEX 69.231 69.231 69.367 LAA 8 4 12
4 09-15-2011 Fausto Carmona Alexi Ogando CLE TEX TEX 69.231 69.231 66.563 TEX 4 7 11
5 06-21-2011 Jordan Lyles C.J. Wilson HOU TEX TEX 68.254 68.254 72.05 TEX 4 5 9
6 08-08-11 Charles Furbush Matt Harrison SEA TEX TEX 68.051 68.051 69.577 TEX 2 9 11
7 05-29-2011 Danny Duffy Alexi Ogando KC TEX TEX 67.742 67.742 68.162 TEX 6 7 13
8 07-26-2011 Carl Pavano C.J. Wilson MIN TEX TEX 67.213 67.213 65.831 MIN 9 8 17
9 09-25-2011 Charles Furbush Derek Holland SEA TEX TEX 67.213 67.213 76.046 TEX 5 12 17
10 08-10-11 Jason Vargas Derek Holland SEA TEX TEX 66.997 66.997 66.568 SEA 4 3 7
11 08-06-11 Fausto Carmona C.J. Wilson CLE TEX TEX 66.887 66.887 71.609 CLE 7 5 12
12 04-24-2011 Bruce Chen C.J. Wilson KC TEX TEX 66.667 66.667 72.702 TEX 7 8 15
13 07-24-2011 Brett Cecil Alexi Ogando TOR TEX TEX 66.667 66.667 66.767 TOR 3 0 3
14 09-11-11 Rich Harden C.J. Wilson OAK TEX TEX 66.102 66.102 70.323 TEX 1 8 9
15 05-27-2011 Nathan Adcock Colby Lewis KC TEX TEX 66.102 66.102 66.238 KC 12 7 19
16 04-23-2011 Kyle Davies Alexi Ogando KC TEX TEX 65.928 65.928 62.2 TEX 1 3 4
17 06-22-2011 Brett Myers Colby Lewis HOU TEX TEX 65.928 65.928 67.861 HOU 5 3 8
18 09-17-2011 Colby Lewis Anthony Vasquez TEX SEA TEX 65.636 65.636 60.17 TEX 7 6 13
19 07-27-2011 Brian Duensing Colby Lewis MIN TEX TEX 65.398 65.398 55.345 MIN 7 2 9
20 07-03-11 Javier Vazquez C.J. Wilson FLA TEX TEX 65.157 65.157 76.006 FLA 6 4 10
21 07-04-11 Chris Jakubauskas Colby Lewis BAL TEX TEX 65.157 65.157 57.661 TEX 4 13 17
22 09-16-2011 C.J. Wilson Blake Beavan TEX SEA TEX 65.096 65.096 67.54 SEA 0 4 4
23 07-22-2011 Jo-Jo Reyes Colby Lewis TOR TEX TEX 64.851 64.851 65.921 TEX 2 12 14
24 05-28-2011 Sean O'Sullivan Matt Harrison KC TEX TEX 64.476 64.476 66.648 TEX 1 10 11
25 09-14-2011 David Huff Derek Holland CLE TEX TEX 64.476 64.476 67.749 TEX 1 9 10
26 07-06-11 Jeremy Guthrie Alexi Ogando BAL TEX TEX 63.834 63.834 64.672 TEX 5 13 18
27 08-09-11 Michael Pineda Alexi Ogando SEA TEX TEX 63.834 63.834 64.797 TEX 6 7 13
28 04-19-2011 Matt Palmer Colby Lewis LAA TEX TEX 62.894 62.894 64.877 LAA 15 4 19
29 09-10-11 Trevor Cahill Alexi Ogando OAK TEX TEX 62.756 62.756 63.387 OAK 8 7 15
30 04-27-2011 Jo-Jo Reyes Derek Holland TOR TEX TEX 62.756 62.756 63.012 TEX 6 7 13
31 07-25-2011 Nick Blackburn Derek Holland MIN TEX TEX 62.756 62.756 60.466 TEX 6 20 26
32 06-08-11 Phil Coke Alexi Ogando DET TEX TEX 62.617 62.617 60.279 TEX 3 7 10
33 07-09-11 Brandon McCarthy Colby Lewis OAK TEX TEX 62.617 62.617 48.773 TEX 6 7 13
34 06-20-2011 J.A. Happ Derek Holland HOU TEX TEX 62.617 62.617 72.034 TEX 3 8 11
35 09-28-2011 Matt Harrison Garrett Richards TEX LAA TEX 62.617 62.617 63.798 TEX 3 1 4
36 08-07-11 Josh Tomlin Colby Lewis CLE TEX TEX 62.121 62.121 60.331 TEX 3 5 8
37 09-21-2011 C.J. Wilson Brandon McCarthy TEX OAK TEX 62.121 62.121 56.54 TEX 3 2 5
38 06-28-2011 C.J. Wilson Jordan Lyles TEX HOU TEX 62.049 62.049 66.36 TEX 7 3 10
39 07-01-11 Anibal Sanchez Alexi Ogando FLA TEX TEX 61.905 61.905 64.997 TEX 5 15 20
40 07-05-11 Mitch Atkins Matt Harrison BAL TEX TEX 61.905 61.905 61.923 TEX 2 4 6
41 09-09-11 Brandon McCarthy Colby Lewis OAK TEX TEX 61.905 61.905 57.569 TEX 4 13 17
42 04-26-2011 Jesse Litsch Matt Harrison TOR TEX TEX 61.905 61.905 60.009 TOR 10 3 13
43 08-25-2011 Andrew Miller Alexi Ogando BOS TEX TEX 61.538 61.538 60.945 BOS 6 0 6
44 06-25-2011 John Niese Alexi Ogando NYN TEX TEX 61.464 61.464 61.453 NYN 14 5 19
45 04-22-2011 Jeff Francis Derek Holland KC TEX TEX 60.861 60.861 61.796 TEX 6 11 17
46 07-23-2011 Carlos Villanueva Matt Harrison TOR TEX TEX 60.552 60.552 64.024 TEX 4 5 9
47 04-05-11 Michael Pineda Alexi Ogando SEA TEX TEX 60.317 60.317 58.143 TEX 2 3 5
48 07-08-11 Gio Gonzalez C.J. Wilson OAK TEX TEX 60.239 60.239 62.523 TEX 5 8 13
49 04-04-11 Erik Bedard Derek Holland SEA TEX TEX 60.159 60.159 58.911 TEX 4 6 10
50 09-13-2011 Justin Masterson Matt Harrison CLE TEX TEX 60.08 60.08 60.503 TEX 4 10 14
51 06-10-11 C.J. Wilson Brian Duensing TEX MIN TEX 59.759 59.759 59.622 TEX 9 3 12
52 05-23-2011 John Danks Alexi Ogando CHA TEX TEX 59.759 59.759 59.102 TEX 0 4 4
53 08-30-2011 Jeremy Hellickson Scott Feldman TB TEX TEX 59.759 59.759 59.587 TEX 0 2 2
54 09-20-2011 Derek Holland Rich Harden TEX OAK TEX 59.759 59.759 59.03 TEX 7 2 9
55 04-28-2011 Brandon Morrow Alexi Ogando TOR TEX TEX 59.596 59.596 59.434 TOR 5 2 7
56 06-24-2011 Mike Pelfrey Matt Harrison NYN TEX TEX 59.267 59.267 62.422 TEX 1 8 9
57 07-28-2011 Scott Baker Matt Harrison MIN TEX TEX 59.267 59.267 56.16 TEX 1 4 5
58 08-15-2011 Alexi Ogando Garrett Richards TEX LAA TEX 58.763 58.763 60.22 TEX 8 4 12
59 04-18-2011 Ervin Santana C.J. Wilson LAA TEX TEX 58.592 58.592 65.023 TEX 1 7 8
60 04-25-2011 Kyle Drabek Colby Lewis TOR TEX TEX 58.592 58.592 58.424 TOR 6 4 10
61 05-25-2011 Gavin Floyd C.J. Wilson CHA TEX TEX 58.42 58.42 62.805 TEX 1 2 3
62 06-06-11 Max Scherzer Colby Lewis DET TEX TEX 58.246 58.246 58.585 DET 13 7 20
63 07-10-11 Trevor Cahill Matt Harrison OAK TEX TEX 58.159 58.159 55.208 TEX 0 2 2
64 08-23-2011 John Lackey Colby Lewis BOS TEX TEX 57.983 57.983 52.392 BOS 11 5 16
65 09-01-11 Jeff Niemann C.J. Wilson TB TEX TEX 57.895 57.895 64.697 TEX 2 7 9
66 09-22-2011 Colby Lewis Trevor Cahill TEX OAK TEX 57.806 57.806 51.61 OAK 3 4 7
67 06-07-11 Rick Porcello Matt Harrison DET TEX TEX 57.717 57.717 59.334 DET 8 1 9
68 06-29-2011 Colby Lewis Brett Myers TEX HOU TEX 57.356 57.356 58.863 TEX 3 2 5
69 06-26-2011 Dillon Gee Derek Holland NYN TEX TEX 56.989 56.989 57.935 NYN 8 5 13
70 07-17-2011 Matt Harrison Blake Beavan TEX SEA TEX 56.897 56.897 57.747 TEX 3 1 4
71 08-22-2011 Erik Bedard C.J. Wilson BOS TEX TEX 56.803 56.803 56.404 TEX 0 4 4
72 06-05-11 C.J. Wilson Mitch Talbot TEX CLE TEX 56.616 56.616 59.2 TEX 2 0 2
73 06-09-11 Derek Holland Nick Blackburn TEX MIN TEX 56.427 56.427 60.387 MIN 4 5 9
74 05-18-2011 Alexi Ogando Danny Duffy TEX KC TEX 56.236 56.236 54.867 TEX 5 4 9
75 05-15-2011 Ervin Santana C.J. Wilson LAA TEX TEX 56.14 56.14 63.329 TEX 4 5 9
76 07-19-2011 Alexi Ogando Tyler Chatwood TEX LAA TEX 56.044 56.044 54.582 TEX 7 0 7
77 08-31-2011 James Shields Alexi Ogando TB TEX TEX 56.044 56.044 59.827 TB 4 1 5
78 08-04-11 Alexi Ogando Brad Penny TEX DET TEX 55.85 55.85 53.822 TEX 5 2 7
79 08-05-11 Ubaldo Jimenez Derek Holland CLE TEX TEX 55.654 55.654 60.44 TEX 7 8 15
80 07-07-11 Rich Harden Derek Holland OAK TEX TEX 55.654 55.654 63.474 TEX 0 6 6
81 04-12-11 C.J. Wilson Brad Penny TEX DET TEX 55.457 55.457 56.906 DET 4 5 9
82 06-11-11 Colby Lewis Scott Baker TEX MIN TEX 55.357 55.357 56.116 MIN 1 8 9
83 08-12-11 C.J. Wilson Brandon McCarthy TEX OAK TEX 55.056 55.056 54.208 TEX 9 1 10
84 05-31-2011 C.J. Wilson Alex Cobb TEX TB TEX 55.056 55.056 55.622 TB 4 5 9
85 08-20-2011 Alexi Ogando John Danks TEX CHA TEX 55.056 55.056 55.123 CHA 2 3 5
86 08-14-2011 Matt Harrison Rich Harden TEX OAK TEX 54.853 54.853 55.684 TEX 7 6 13
87 05-03-11 Alexi Ogando Erik Bedard TEX SEA TEX 54.751 54.751 54.404 SEA 3 4 7
88 07-29-2011 Alexi Ogando Brett Cecil TEX TOR TEX 54.649 54.649 55.598 TOR 2 3 5
89 08-16-2011 Derek Holland Tyler Chatwood TEX LAA TEX 54.442 54.442 55.761 TEX 7 3 10
90 05-09-11 Trevor Cahill C.J. Wilson OAK TEX TEX 54.233 54.233 58.888 OAK 7 2 9
91 06-30-2011 Matt Harrison Wandy Rodriguez TEX HOU TEX 54.233 54.233 56.801 HOU 0 7 7
92 05-24-2011 Jake Peavy Derek Holland CHA TEX TEX 53.596 53.596 63.003 CHA 8 6 14
93 06-16-2011 C.J. Wilson Brian Gordon TEX NYA TEX 53.488 53.488 49.194 NYA 2 3 5
94 06-03-11 Alexi Ogando Justin Masterson TEX CLE TEX 53.38 53.38 50.537 TEX 11 2 13
95 07-30-2011 Derek Holland Brad Mills TEX TOR TEX 53.162 53.162 52.984 TEX 3 0 3
96 09-27-2011 Colby Lewis Ervin Santana TEX LAA TEX 53.162 53.162 53.05 TEX 10 3 13
97 06-12-11 Matt Harrison Francisco Liriano TEX MIN TEX 53.052 53.052 55.026 MIN 1 6 7
98 08-21-2011 Derek Holland Gavin Floyd TEX CHA TEX 52.941 52.941 52.65 CHA 0 10 10
99 07-15-2011 Colby Lewis Doug Fister TEX SEA TEX 52.719 52.719 47.453 TEX 4 0 4
100 08-26-2011 Dan Haren Derek Holland LAA TEX TEX 52.494 52.494 60.838 TEX 7 11 18
101 04-09-11 Colby Lewis Zach Britton TEX BAL TEX 52.267 52.267 52.267 BAL 0 5 5
102 04-20-2011 Jered Weaver Matt Harrison LAA TEX TEX 52.153 52.153 52.601 LAA 4 1 5
103 04-10-11 C.J. Wilson Jeremy Guthrie TEX BAL TEX 52.038 52.038 52.537 TEX 3 0 3
104 07-14-2011 Derek Holland Jason Vargas TEX SEA TEX 52.038 52.038 53.388 TEX 5 0 5
105 05-10-11 Brett Anderson Colby Lewis OAK TEX TEX 51.923 51.923 40.635 TEX 7 2 9
106 07-31-2011 C.J. Wilson Brandon Morrow TEX TOR TEX 51.807 51.807 51.134 TOR 3 7 10
107 08-13-2011 Colby Lewis Trevor Cahill TEX OAK TEX 51.807 51.807 48.208 TEX 7 1 8
108 08-28-2011 Jered Weaver Colby Lewis LAA TEX TEX 51.807 51.807 57.347 TEX 5 9 14
109 04-02-11 John Lackey Colby Lewis BOS TEX TEX 51.691 51.691 52.703 TEX 5 12 17
110 06-17-2011 Colby Lewis Tommy Hanson TEX ATL TEX 51.691 51.691 40.637 TEX 6 2 8
111 08-19-2011 Matt Harrison Jake Peavy TEX CHA TEX 51.574 51.574 46.8 TEX 7 4 11
112 05-05-11 Colby Lewis Jason Vargas TEX SEA TEX 51.456 51.456 46.832 SEA 1 3 4
113 09-06-11 C.J. Wilson Jeff Niemann TEX TB TEX 51.338 51.338 55.928 TEX 8 0 8
114 05-13-2011 Jered Weaver Alexi Ogando LAA TEX TEX 51.338 51.338 47.655 TEX 1 4 5
115 04-06-11 Felx Hernandez C.J. Wilson SEA TEX TEX 51.22 51.22 58.386 TEX 3 7 10
116 05-06-11 Ivan Nova Matt Harrison NYA TEX TEX 51.1 51.1 45.476 NYA 4 1 5
117 05-19-2011 Derek Holland Luke Hochevar TEX KC TEX 50.86 50.86 58.151 KC 1 2 3
118 08-03-11 Matt Harrison Doug Fister TEX DET TEX 50.739 50.739 44.902 DET 4 5 9
119 05-07-11 Bartolo Colon Derek Holland NYA TEX TEX 50.249 50.249 49.747 TEX 5 7 12
120 06-19-2011 Alexi Ogando Jair Jurrjens TEX ATL TEX 50.249 50.249 49.857 ATL 2 4 6
121 05-30-2011 Derek Holland Wade Davis TEX TB TB 50.495 49.505 53.605 TEX 11 5 16
122 05-04-11 C.J. Wilson Michael Pineda TEX SEA SEA 50.739 49.261 53.364 TEX 5 2 7
123 04-09-11 Matt Harrison Jake Arrieta TEX BAL BAL 50.739 49.261 45.181 TEX 13 1 14
124 07-16-2011 C.J. Wilson Felx Hernandez TEX SEA SEA 50.739 49.261 53.357 TEX 5 1 6
125 08-24-2011 Josh Beckett Matt Harrison BOS TEX BOS 50.739 49.261 53.209 BOS 13 2 15
126 09-18-2011 Matt Harrison Felx Hernandez TEX SEA SEA 50.98 49.02 54.49 TEX 3 0 3
127 04-29-2011 C.J. Wilson Trevor Cahill TEX OAK OAK 51.1 48.9 51.694 OAK 1 3 4
128 05-14-2011 Dan Haren Derek Holland LAA TEX LAA 51.338 48.662 50.675 LAA 3 2 5
129 08-17-2011 C.J. Wilson Ervin Santana TEX LAA LAA 51.338 48.662 57.15 TEX 4 3 7
130 06-18-2011 Matt Harrison Derek Lowe TEX ATL ATL 51.456 48.544 48.553 TEX 5 4 9
131 08-02-11 Colby Lewis Max Scherzer TEX DET DET 51.574 48.426 44.013 DET 5 6 11
132 05-02-11 Derek Holland Brandon McCarthy TEX OAK OAK 51.807 48.193 45.481 OAK 4 5 9
133 06-04-11 Derek Holland Fausto Carmona TEX CLE CLE 52.719 47.281 53.416 TEX 4 0 4
134 09-24-2011 Felx Hernandez Alexi Ogando SEA TEX SEA 52.719 47.281 62.31 TEX 3 7 10
135 04-01-11 Jon Lester C.J. Wilson BOS TEX BOS 53.271 46.729 54.639 TEX 5 9 14
136 05-01-11 Matt Harrison Gio Gonzalez TEX OAK OAK 53.271 46.729 42.679 OAK 2 7 9
137 06-02-11 Dave Bush Carlos Carrasco TEX CLE CLE 53.488 46.512 47.256 TEX 7 4 11
138 05-16-2011 Colby Lewis Edwin Jackson TEX CHA CHA 53.811 46.189 47.266 TEX 4 0 4
139 07-21-2011 C.J. Wilson Jered Weaver TEX LAA LAA 54.233 45.767 50.857 LAA 0 1 1
140 04-16-2011 Derek Holland Freddy Garcia TEX NYA NYA 54.442 45.558 47.048 NYA 2 5 7
141 09-04-11 Matt Harrison John Lackey TEX BOS BOS 54.853 45.147 48.867 TEX 11 4 15
142 06-15-2011 Derek Holland Ivan Nova TEX NYA NYA 55.056 44.944 43.228 NYA 4 12 16
143 09-26-2011 C.J. Wilson Dan Haren TEX LAA LAA 55.056 44.944 57.943 TEX 4 3 7
144 04-11-11 Alexi Ogando Justin Verlander TEX DET DET 55.556 44.444 38.619 TEX 2 0 2
145 04-13-2011 Dave Bush Max Scherzer TEX DET DET 55.654 44.346 43.904 DET 2 3 5
146 04-03-11 Clay Buchholz Matt Harrison BOS TEX BOS 55.947 44.053 52.791 TEX 1 5 6
147 09-02-11 Derek Holland Andrew Miller TEX BOS BOS 56.427 43.573 48.221 TEX 10 0 10
148 07-20-2011 Derek Holland Dan Haren TEX LAA LAA 56.616 43.384 48.296 LAA 8 9 17
149 09-05-11 Scott Feldman James Shields TEX TB TB 56.803 43.197 47.533 TB 1 5 6
150 05-17-2011 Matt Harrison John Danks TEX CHA CHA 57.265 42.735 45.365 CHA 3 4 7
151 08-18-2011 Colby Lewis Jered Weaver TEX LAA LAA 57.537 42.463 45.386 LAA 1 2 3
152 06-01-11 Colby Lewis David Price TEX TB TB 57.806 42.194 40.669 TEX 3 0 3
153 06-14-2011 Alexi Ogando C.C. Sabathia TEX NYA NYA 58.071 41.929 37.082 NYA 4 12 16
154 09-03-11 Colby Lewis Erik Bedard TEX BOS BOS 58.333 41.667 36.505 BOS 7 12 19
155 04-15-2011 Matt Harrison Ivan Nova TEX NYA NYA 58.42 41.58 44.015 TEX 5 3 8
156 04-30-2011 Colby Lewis Brett Anderson TEX OAK OAK 58.506 41.494 33.999 TEX 11 2 13
157 05-22-2011 Matt Harrison Roy Oswalt TEX PHI PHI 59.432 40.568 38.989 TEX 2 0 2
158 05-21-2011 Colby Lewis Cliff Lee TEX PHI PHI 59.514 40.486 36.814 PHI 0 2 2
159 09-07-11 Derek Holland David Price TEX TB TB 60.396 39.604 48.155 TB 4 5 9
160 05-08-11 C.C. Sabathia Alexi Ogando NYA TEX NYA 60.938 39.063 39.211 NYA 12 5 17
161 05-20-2011 C.J. Wilson Roy Halladay TEX PHI PHI 62.049 37.951 43.212 PHI 2 3 5
162 04-17-2011 Alexi Ogando C.C. Sabathia TEX NYA NYA 66.102 33.898 33.383 NYA 5 6 11
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