2011 Community Projections Review: Nelson Cruz

by Brad on Nov 18, 2011 1:00 PM CST

ARLINGTON, TX - OCTOBER 10: Nelson Cruz #17 of the Texas Rangers hits a walk off grand slam home run in the bottom of the 11th inning to win Game Two of the American League Championship Series 7-3 against the Detroit Tigers at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington on October 10, 2011 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

In 2010 Nelson Cruz had a breakout performance by putting up a .318 / .374 / .576 slash line for a .950 OPS in 445 PA. His PA were limited by injuries but before the season started expectations were very high for Cruz to build off his 2010 and have an outstanding 2011. Some local and national writers even picked him to lead the AL in home runs during the spring. The LSB community had strong expectations as well, projecting a .928 OPS. However the projections were the most varied with a standard deviation on his Runs Created (RC) was 14.0, the highest of all position players.

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	RMSE
LSB Average	581	.298	.361	.567	.928	13.54%
ZiPS	513	.283	.350	.536	.886	7.65%
Marcel	474	.283	.349	.514	.863	8.02%
2011 Results	513	.263	.312	.509	.821	0.00%

Nelson Cruz in 2011 was a disappointment compared to the expectations. He only put up an .821 OPS in 513 PA, twice spending time on the DL with the annual leg muscle issues. Much like Josh Hamilton's projections, the systems had much more subdued projections closer to his career numbers rather than his 2010 season.

Using a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) approach [lower is better] the top and bottom individual projections have PerfectZero at the top of the projections and Mark from OC at the bottom.

Everyone's rankings can be found in this Google Spreadsheet and the top and bottom 5 shake out as:

Top 5	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	RMSE
1. Perfect Zero	488	.265	.300	.511	.811	3.13%
2. AfterSchoolSpecial	505	.265	.315	.542	.857	3.39%
3. Adam J. Morris	539	.271	.337	.518	.855	5.06%
4. hefe300	517	.277	.343	.516	.859	5.69%
5. jshcmp	520	.270	.333	.567	.900	6.78%

Bottom 5	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	RMSE
77. MikeEl	565	.330	.400	.600	1.000	21.60%
78. Baseball North	650	.310	.390	.600	.990	22.23%
79. Winojohn	688	.302	.378	.605	.983	23.38%
80. JDT217	640	.318	.376	.683	1.059	25.69%
81. Mark from OC	609	.375	.433	.620	1.053	32.18%

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Comments

That postseason... hrrrrrnnnnnnnnng that postseason.

"God dammit TAG I swear to God if you keep this "It was a close play" shit up all night I will send you cookies made from my own shit" -River Fenix 8/26/2011

"this is a big reason I decided not to convert to Islam now if it was 72 skanks? Different story, my friend" Bob Loblaw 9/2/2011

by I am Neftali Feliz on Nov 18, 2011 1:01 PM CST reply actions

lol, 9-WAR Cruz, OPS'ing like Bautista

Mark from OC 609 .375 .433 .620

by Jobu. on Nov 18, 2011 1:13 PM CST reply actions

Similarly, this is known as 50-HR Cruz

JDT217 640 .318 .376 .683

by Jobu. on Nov 18, 2011 1:14 PM CST up reply actions

or, playoff-Cruz

by Jobu. on Nov 18, 2011 1:14 PM CST up reply actions

Yup

I said Cruz was going to be AL MVP. I was way wrong.

by Mark from OC on Nov 18, 2011 3:00 PM CST up reply actions

81 of 82 posters projected an OPS higher than Cruz' actual OPS in 2011

by Heebs on Nov 18, 2011 1:17 PM CST reply actions

Stupid PA always screwing up everyone's projections!

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Nov 18, 2011 1:25 PM CST up reply actions

Your tone is bordering on hostile.

"...out of the shadows of unprecedented success, the sun shines down upon this team waiting to thrill anew." - ghostofErikThompson

by jam0152 on Nov 18, 2011 1:27 PM CST up reply actions

AfterSchoolSpecial was almost right on the money

He amazingly only overestimated his slugging. His projected difference in OBP and SLG if played out would have looked crazy on the stat sheet.

by Heebs on Nov 18, 2011 1:31 PM CST up reply actions

Cruz had a bad regular season for his standards

I’m really hoping BB% can bounce back after sliding each of the past 3 years

by Jobu. on Nov 18, 2011 1:33 PM CST up reply actions

I forgot to mention in the main article...

Cruz was the most disappointing player in production of all the position players not named Borbon. He produced 30% less in RC than projected.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Nov 18, 2011 1:33 PM CST reply actions

I like that use of statistics to show how disappointing he was.

Met our eye test—we all thought Cruz should have been hitting better last season.

by Jobu. on Nov 18, 2011 1:36 PM CST up reply actions

He was disappointing...

But our expectations were too high anyway. We overestimated quite a bit compared to his career numbers.

But he was below those too.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Nov 18, 2011 1:39 PM CST up reply actions

I think we all just think/hope/want those power surges

and hot streaks to take over a season, instead of him continuing to be so streaky

by Jobu. on Nov 18, 2011 1:46 PM CST up reply actions

I always get flamed when I say this,

but Cruz’s streaks are often related to his approach at the plate. When he tries to yank everything, he struggles, when he stays through the ball and finishes up the middle, he is a monster.

"Calmer than you are dude"

by Arlington Stadium Legend on Nov 18, 2011 1:50 PM CST up reply actions

That's not what the stats say.

Kidding!

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Nov 18, 2011 1:52 PM CST up reply actions

How so?

Asking honestly.

"Calmer than you are dude"

by Arlington Stadium Legend on Nov 18, 2011 1:53 PM CST up reply actions

I made the text really small.

But it says “Kidding!” in the body of the comment.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Nov 18, 2011 1:54 PM CST up reply actions

I saw that.

I was asking if there really was any such stats.

"Calmer than you are dude"

by Arlington Stadium Legend on Nov 18, 2011 2:00 PM CST up reply actions

Gosh... not that I'm aware of for something like that.

I mean… you could probably construct something with good batted ball data.

Which is what HitFX wants to provide and part of what BIS does. But that’s not available to the public.

The closest we get is PitchFX which shows us how they do versus certain types of pitches and location… but that’s different.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Nov 18, 2011 2:02 PM CST up reply actions

It's hard to prove,

and I’m very aware of that. I’m also aware there is probaby some confirmation bias in there. However, I still believe that the majority of Cruz’s bad stretches are a result of his approach at the plate (trying to pull the ball too much).

"Calmer than you are dude"

by Arlington Stadium Legend on Nov 18, 2011 2:04 PM CST up reply actions

I actually believe you.

I mean… coaching has value. It’s just hard for non-coaches to see it per se. Having data to support just makes it easier to understand or validate things that experience tells you.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Nov 18, 2011 2:14 PM CST up reply actions

When Nellie finishes with his front side towards 2B,

he hits the ball well. When he finishes with his front side towards 3B, he slumps.

"Calmer than you are dude"

by Arlington Stadium Legend on Nov 18, 2011 2:24 PM CST up reply actions

I know I have seen home run data to various fields

I believe I have seen hits and possibly outs to the outfield. It would be intersting to see line drives and home runs to the various outfield areas. My hypothesis is when Nellie is hitting to the opposite field well, he is extremely dangerous.

by Philar on Nov 18, 2011 2:14 PM CST up reply actions

someone thought he would hit .375?

by TheHuntforRedOctober on Nov 18, 2011 1:35 PM CST reply actions

Must've thought it was the Josh thread

by Heebs on Nov 18, 2011 1:36 PM CST up reply actions

No... I specifically asked Mark from OC about that back in March.

To make sure it wasn’t a typo or a bit… he meant it. He thought Cruz would have a special year.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Nov 18, 2011 1:37 PM CST up reply actions

Even so, that's insanely lofty.

by dolphinpuncher on Nov 18, 2011 1:43 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

That's not a special year

The a legendary year.

I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)

by Gay For Feliz on Nov 18, 2011 1:43 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Yes you did

And I said no it was not a mistake. I thought Cruz would be AL MVP

by Mark from OC on Nov 18, 2011 3:02 PM CST up reply actions

Twins to sign Doumit.

Will be stuck as DH, RF, 2nd catcher if Mauer and Morneau are both healthy.

"Calmer than you are dude"

by Arlington Stadium Legend on Nov 18, 2011 1:51 PM CST reply actions

LOL

Ghetto trolling my Astros fan cousin on Facebook…

"...out of the shadows of unprecedented success, the sun shines down upon this team waiting to thrill anew." - ghostofErikThompson

by jam0152 on Nov 18, 2011 2:02 PM CST reply actions

I wouldn't call Cruz's season disappointing

If you subtract his PA’s after coming off the DL in September when he was trying to find his swing, but couldn’t rehab in the minors, and if you add his post-season stats, I’m pretty sure they’d be a lot more in line with projections. I wouldn’t call any player named ALCS MVP a disappointment. He was there when we needed him.

by Rangers Fan Mike on Nov 18, 2011 2:09 PM CST reply actions