2011 Community Projections Review: Yorvit Torrealba

ARLINGTON, TX - JULY 26: Yorvit Torrealba #8 of the Texas Rangers runs after hitting a two-run home run against the Minnesota Twins at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington on July 26, 2011 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

Yorvit Torrealba was one of the first new acquisitions for the Texas Rangers in the off season prior to 2011.  In 2010 he had his best offensive season since 2002, posting a slash of .271 / .343 / .378 for a .721 OPS in 363 PA for the Padres.  The catcher production for the Rangers had been a black hole in 2010 and Torrealba represented a good chance to get closer to league average production.  The projections were very tightly grouped and expected a bit more playing time and power with a regression in AVG and OBP closer to his career numbers.

  PA AVG OBP SLG OPS RMSE
LSB Average 395 .266 .328 .389 .717 4.92%
ZiPS 320 .271 .331 .389 .720 12.57%
Snark (Marcel) 406 .261 .325 .382 .707 4.63%
2011 Results 419 .273 .306 .399 .705 0.00%

Torrealba had a year close to what was expected.  The drop off in OBP was more severe than projected, down to .306, but he had a bit more power than what was projected to make his OPS a respectable .705.  Torrealba had an absolutely awful May with a .346 OPS... in all other months his OPS was .781, .796, .727, .793 and .729.  Solid offensive production to help plug a leak in the lineup.

Using a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) approach [lower is better] the top and bottom individual projections have mathewsherill at the top of the projections and Bats and Balls at the bottom.

Everyone's rankings can be found in this Google Spreadsheet and the top and bottom 5 shake out as:

 Top 5
PA AVG OBP SLG OPS RMSE
1. mathewsherill 427 .259 .321 .405 .726 3.75%
2. ForeverRanger 430 .275 .325 .415 .740 3.94%
3. Gay for Feliz 450 .265 .300 .400 .700 4.10%
4. chrisR 400 .255 .309 .390 .699 4.19%
5. Poltergeist 420 .263 .309 .369 .678 4.21%
 Bottom 5
PA AVG OBP SLG OPS RMSE
74. Aquaman, Esq. 510 .274 .343 .420 .763 12.71%
75. ruben_sierra#21 319 .241 .295 .372 .667 13.84%
76. Ryin A 320 .280 .350 .380 .730 14.09%
77. slc ranger 307 .254 .315 .354 .669 14.99%
78. Bats and Balls 300 .250 .309 .370 .679 15.26%
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