2011 Community Projections Review: David Murphy

by Brad on Nov 23, 2011 2:03 PM CST

David Murphy had a nice season in 2010. He posted a career high .806 OPS in 467 PA providing better production than you'd expect from a fourth outfielder. It was especially valuable given the amount of time missed by Hamilton and Cruz. His projections were steady and expected similar production in 2011 as we saw in 2010 with a tiny dip in OPS and PA.

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	RMSE
LSB Average	457	.285	.347	.454	.801	7.68%
ZiPS	486	.277	.338	.446	.784	7.83%
Snark (Marcel)	483	.273	.336	.436	.773	6.67%
2011 Results	440	.275	.328	.401	.729	0.00%

For the first five months of the season, Murphy's 2011 was abysmal. Coming into September Murphy had a slash line of .251 / .317 / .352 and made GDTs erupt in fury whenever he came to the plate. However, in a true show of grit, he rebounded with a great September where he went .351 / .366 / .557 to help pick up the slack when Nelson Cruz made his second trip to the DL. Ultimately his 2011 was disappointing but saved from being tragic.

Using a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) approach [lower is better] the top and bottom individual projections have GoFrogs at the top of the projections and erudy at the bottom.

Everyone's rankings can be found in this Google Spreadsheet and the top and bottom 5 shake out as:

Top 5	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	RMSE
1. GoFrogs	450	.282	.330	.425	.755	3.46%
2. Endyr	425	.270	.330	.430	.760	4.11%
3. AfterSchoolSpecial	460	.290	.345	.420	.765	4.99%
4. t ball	430	.274	.337	.441	.778	5.30%
5. TooLegitToQuit	400	.280	.331	.425	.756	5.54%

Bottom 5	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	RMSE
72. Bigfan16	487	.307	.368	.479	.847	13.93%
73. Bats and Balls	500	.296	.348	.500	.848	14.92%
74. BigGuns	520	.302	.371	.485	.856	16.11%
75. adub74	580	.290	.350	.450	.800	17.58%
76. erudy	587	.297	.357	.457	.814	19.06%

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Comments

dat grand slam

"God dammit TAG I swear to God if you keep this "It was a close play" shit up all night I will send you cookies made from my own shit" -River Fenix 8/26/2011

"this is a big reason I decided not to convert to Islam now if it was 72 skanks? Different story, my friend" Bob Loblaw 9/2/2011

by I am Neftali Feliz on Nov 23, 2011 2:14 PM CST reply actions

oops

by erudy on Nov 23, 2011 2:28 PM CST reply actions

Murphy had a pretty good year in 2010 against lefites

compared to being absolutely worthless last year against them in the same number of ABs. I’d think Murphy would be a trade candidate if it wasn’t for the fact that we need 4 or even 5 OFers with Hamilton and Cruz manning two positions and our CF still uncertain.

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.

by NothinG on Nov 23, 2011 2:31 PM CST reply actions

Gentry and [TBD] platoon at CF

Mitch as your 4th OF/new Murph. Then you have room for Fielder at 1B.

I don’t want this to happen, mind you, but it’s one way to free Murph up for a trade.

by Chewtoy123 on Nov 23, 2011 4:13 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

I don't want Murph to go

But I’d like to see him get the chance to play every day. I don’t think that’ll be here.

by Chewtoy123 on Nov 23, 2011 4:15 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

wont be in TX.. log jam. plus we have king leonys.

"God dammit TAG I swear to God if you keep this "It was a close play" shit up all night I will send you cookies made from my own shit" -River Fenix 8/26/2011

"this is a big reason I decided not to convert to Islam now if it was 72 skanks? Different story, my friend" Bob Loblaw 9/2/2011

by I am Neftali Feliz on Nov 23, 2011 4:58 PM CST up reply actions

Meh...

if you get a first baseman you try and deal Moreland, not Murphy. Keep Murphy as your 4th OFer. I really don’t want to see Moreland in the OF.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Nov 23, 2011 6:41 PM CST up reply actions

I'm trading Murphy because he's going to get paid much more than Moreland

and I think Moreland has more upside than Murphy at the plate. Murphy, however, is a decent LF, and Moreland is pretty bad in the OF.

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.

by NothinG on Nov 23, 2011 8:06 PM CST up reply actions

Valid point on the salary...

I can see that then I suppose.

Although if Murphy is dealt I still see Gentry/Borbon (if that’s the platoon in CF) as the 4th OFer. The only way I want to see Moreland in the OF is if our entire OF is on the DL as it was for a stretch of games this year.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Nov 23, 2011 8:59 PM CST up reply actions

yeah

Moreland in the outfield should only be in a desperate situation

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.

by NothinG on Nov 24, 2011 10:10 AM CST up reply actions

I may be wrong

But in order to trade Murph, I think we’d have to tender an offer to him in arbitration, otherwise, he’s a free agent as of a certain date this fall. I haven’t heard anything from the FO on if they intend to make an offer, but I doubt they would if their intention is to trade him, since he’s sort of over-paid for the production he puts up. My guess is we don’t offer arbitration and either get in-house or trade for a minimum salary guy who can put up similiar #s. I don’t really know where Borbon is healthwise, but between him and a hopefully surging Martin, we’ve hoperfully got our platoon CF and backup lefty covered.

Besides the possibility of trades or big signings, the obvious areas that must be addressed are backup utility IF, and 1 or 2 lefty relievers. We’re so stacked with righty relievers, I can’t help thinking there’s going to be some trade to thin out what looks like an overcrowded bullpen. I think I’d rather go with just one lefty, forcing Wash to be a little more judicious in his bp use. He has a tendency at times to take out ai righty releiver who’s doing fine just because a lefty is coming up. the loogy should only be used for high pressure win or lose moments, not just because Bobby Abreu is coming up with a guy on and we’ve got a 4 run lead.

We’dl lose all that grit though.

Baseball's hard, guys. I mean, it really is. You can love it but, believe me, it don't always love you back. It's kind of like dating a German chick, you know?

by Buttermaker on Nov 23, 2011 5:11 PM CST reply actions