Royals Review: The Case for Trading Billy Butler
Long story short: He's a round peg, and a pretty good round peg, but a big one, and they have square holes, that are little.
For comparison's sake, Billy Butler is two years younger than Prince and the same age as Mitch Moreland (with an extra three plus seasons of experience over Mitch). He's due 24 million for 2012, 2013, and 2014- roughly what Prince will make in 2012 and roughly what Moreland will make if he wins the Powerball. Fangraphs comparison of the three below.
5 months ago
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I'd like him
it would give KC a jump on some of our guys a bit before we release them and Baltimore tries to sign them
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
by NothinG on Dec 19, 2011 12:22 PM CST reply actions 2 recs
Meh
I like Butler, but I’m not sure how much I would part with to get him. He’ll probably have a shiny talented upside guy price, and I’m not sure that label is accurate.
Completely agree
I view him a lot like I viewed Chris Davis. I’ll give them Uehara and maybe a mid level prospect at most, assuming we take the contract.
"The Rangers system just happens to be stupid with depth." - JParks
"It’s unusual that Sickels is higher on a low-A prospect than those of us who follow the Rangers’ system closely." -rooster on Jan 1, 2011 12:10 PM PST talking about the son of Judeska and Chesmond
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it" - Thomas Paine
by Eric Prince on Dec 19, 2011 12:52 PM CST up reply actions
Uehara and a mid-level prospect?
I think you are confusing Butler with someone else.
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 19, 2011 1:04 PM CST up reply actions
Butler is way better than you're giving him credit for
NO This is why i dont come here so much anymore. it has become a destination for certain types which i am not. Love the rangers, not this -- Mark from OC on Arrested Development
Justin Verlander? I piss on Justin Verlander --AJM
Yeah...Butler is a hell of a lot better than Davis
But, I’m not sure he’ll be worth his price tag. At this point I’m convinced he is what he is.
CD and Butler
are almost opposite
one has light-tower power and no idea where the ball is going once it’s pitched
the other guy has a great batting eye and strike zone judgment but has yet to tap into the power he’s been projected to have for some time
meant to say
that they are completely opposite
One has huge power and no strike zone judgment
The other has great strike zone judgment but power hasn’t developed
Yes, they are very different players
but I wouldn’t want to give up much for Butler, and with where KC is, they’d be looking for prospects, maybe Mendez, Odor, Skoal type guys. I’d rather not do that.
"The Rangers system just happens to be stupid with depth." - JParks
"It’s unusual that Sickels is higher on a low-A prospect than those of us who follow the Rangers’ system closely." -rooster on Jan 1, 2011 12:10 PM PST talking about the son of Judeska and Chesmond
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it" - Thomas Paine
You've got to be kidding
I’d give up Odor, Skole and Mendez together for Butler in a heartbeat. KC would laugh and hang up.
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 19, 2011 2:09 PM CST up reply actions
I didn't say I wouldn't,
I said I’d rather not.
"The Rangers system just happens to be stupid with depth." - JParks
"It’s unusual that Sickels is higher on a low-A prospect than those of us who follow the Rangers’ system closely." -rooster on Jan 1, 2011 12:10 PM PST talking about the son of Judeska and Chesmond
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it" - Thomas Paine
Because I think we can get better value elsewhere
he’s a ≈ 2 fWAR guy, .300/.370/.470.
Mitch Moreland is a ≈ .7 fWAR player. So we’d be giving up prospects not at their peak value for a roughly 1.5 fWAR improvement. If we could do it for a guy like Murphy, plus one of Skoal/Mendez/de los Santos, and a throw in org filler type guy like Miller, I’d do it.
"The Rangers system just happens to be stupid with depth." - JParks
"It’s unusual that Sickels is higher on a low-A prospect than those of us who follow the Rangers’ system closely." -rooster on Jan 1, 2011 12:10 PM PST talking about the son of Judeska and Chesmond
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it" - Thomas Paine
I would.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
Haha, ummmm Billy Butler is nothing like CD.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
BusterOnley
Most folks guessing/assuming Jays have won Darvish bidding. But just got off the phone with an AL exec who speculates smart $ is on Rangers.
by CowboyHornedFrogs on Dec 19, 2011 12:38 PM CST reply actions
Block quote fail
Something else being seen as possible clue that TEX is winning bidder (again, this is speculation): TOR stayed in Latos conversation late.
by CowboyHornedFrogs on Dec 19, 2011 12:39 PM CST up reply actions
It's a more common disease than you would think
We need to raise awareness.
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Dec 19, 2011 12:51 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
BQF Telethon?
We’re not about sending messages. We’re about winning ballgames.-Wash, 04/03/11
Hell to the fucking no. -Wash, 10/07/11
Yu changed yur name.
Haven’t had a chance to view it yet, but I will.
We’re not about sending messages. We’re about winning ballgames.-Wash, 04/03/11
Hell to the fucking no. -Wash, 10/07/11
I dont see why the Latos stuff would matter much
They’d likely have to have given away a starter so Latos would have replaced him and he doesn’t start to get real expensive for another couple years.
I dont think that has any real effect on the darvish stuff
The huge bid moniker makes me nervous
but there was an article that estimated that Darvish would bring an additional $11 million per year to the Blue Jays from Japanese sponsorships and so on if he signs there. It mentioned that the Yankees and Mariners got about $20 million a year in extra revenue from having Matsui and Ichiro, respectively, but I don’t know how they came up with the $11 million number.
We’ve talked about this “revenue increase”, but nobody is really sure how much it is – if $10 million/year in the ballpark, that’d make a huge Darvish bid a lot more reasonable. I wonder what the team’s marketing squad came up with.
On the other hand, they call Anthopoulos a “Ninja”, which I assume discredits the entire article.
Interesting thought
That I bet JD and the ivy-league crowd in our FO has mapped out rather well – how much of the posting fee will be recouped in marketing revenue? If you look at the up front number compared against the marketing dollars for 5-6 years, I wonder how they stack up. At $10M/year, it’d be about a wash …
I'd guess at this point it's probably 70/30 Jays...
problem is there’s nothing to base that on besides my Rangers skepticism.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
That's why we need Prince!
Oh wait…
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Dec 19, 2011 12:52 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
That's why we wouldn't be signing him to a long term deal
I’m interested in Butler, but it comes down to the price. He’s not an elite player or really anything close to it. He’s also not going to be cheap on a year-year basis.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
Matt Harrison
"A fanatic is one who cannot change his mind and will not change the subject."
Winston Churchill
"I remember diving out of the way of a ball I thought was a line drive. I jumped, but the ball wasn't hit hard and never reached me."
Dock Ellis
That's about it
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Dec 19, 2011 1:29 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
That's probably a pretty good start
Harrison has begun to realize some of his potential, and Butler has yet to. Harry plays the more valuable role, but if we add Yu and don’t have the dollars to upgrade 1B, it might be close.
Real problem is that it pushes MY to 1B almost every day and takes away the spot you want to play Mo-Napoli in when he’s not catching, which is a pretty significant number of games
Butler has 3 full seasons worth of games and a 124 game rookie season
All signs point to a slow guy who gives below average defense at 1B but is likely good for something like a .360-.370 wOBA. That comes at a price of 8 million a year over the next few years. I’d say that Butler is what he is and Harrison has a good chance to be at his 2011 level (though I think he gets better). But if we’re talking about Harrison in 2011 for Butler and what he has been over his career, I’d take Harrison without even thinking twice.
Butler is a good bat that would be nice to have, but he’s not someone you trade a pitcher like Harrison for.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
Hmmm...
that’s pretty tough, but if the Rangers pick up another starter that’s the kind of deal I could see them making.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
The Rangers about a million times over
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
Harrison is coming off a year where he had a 3.39 ERA
He was worth 4.2 fWAR with a 3.52 FIP over 185.2 IP. I can’t imagine the Rangers would look to trade that for what would essentially be an 8 million a year DH coming off of a down year.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
Bye Harry :(
Go Rice Owls!
Would be a Matt Harrison fan, but I only like superstars
by JBImaknee on Dec 19, 2011 2:21 PM CST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
I would like to trade Hamilton..
To the Braves and sign Beltran to a 2yr 24 mill deal and then sign Prince to a 6 yr 145-150 mill deal with an out clause at the 3rd or 4th year.
The Braves are looking for antoher bat and a bat specifically for LF, they have young pitching a couple of good young bats in the minors. Maybe Hamilton and some money for Delgado, Salcedo and Terdoslavich.
If you're going to
trade for a 1B I’d rather go after Youkilis first before Butler
2011: The Year of Holland
I like Youk
but he’s become really injury prone lately, so no thanks. plus he is loved in Boston and it would cost more than Butler, I would assume.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
I have no idea why Boston would trade one of its best players.
It’d have to be an insane haul. Doesn’t make sense with two teams both trying to win now.
plus Youk's batting stance really gets on my nerves
Go big or go home!!
by average joe blow on Dec 19, 2011 2:22 PM CST up reply actions
I just thought of this...
So not great at defense 1B/DH that hit lot’s of doubles around 190 hits and about 10-15 HRs a year. Hits into a good bit of DPs. Butler is Young with a better walk rate
Formerly Rangers121032
We want...#1 Josh #2 Barnet #10000000 Rhadigan
so Young for Butler?
Go big or go home!!
by average joe blow on Dec 19, 2011 2:23 PM CST up reply actions
I love the idea (and raised it just a few days ago)
But I wonder what we do with Young…
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
Good piece on Butler from prior to the 2011 season
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/billy-butlers-extension-and-future/
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
Just looking at the graphs there...
It seems there’s a similar jump from moreland to butler as there is from butler to prince. I don’t think it makes sense to be willing to give up a haul of talent and about 8 mil per season to make that jump to butler, but not be willing to keep the talent in hand and shell out the huge deal to prince. Of course there are a lot of unknowns in the equation such as what are pro scouts project for all of the players involved, how much butler would cost, and how much payroll flexibility we have after Yu. But if I’m in charge I try to find a way to get Prince.
my better is better than your better.
by rangerjake on Dec 23, 2011 7:41 AM CST via mobile reply actions
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