2011 Community Projections Review: Colby Lewis

by Brad on Dec 2, 2011 1:18 PM CST

DETROIT, MI - OCTOBER 11: Colby Lewis #48 of the Texas Rangers throws a pitch in the first inning of Game Three of the American League Championship Series against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on October 11, 2011 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)

Colby Lewis had a shockingly successful return to Major League baseball in 2010. He gave the Texas Rangers a 3.72 ERA in 201 strong innings with peripherals of 8.78 K/9, 2.91 BB/9 and 0.94 HR/9. The community projections were very bullish on Colbyashi's chances to repeat or improve on his 2010 numbers and he had the best numbers of any projected starter for 2011 with many expecting him to be the best pitcher in the rotation instead of the Opening Day starter, C.J. Wilson.

	IP	ERA	K	BB	HR	RMSE
LSB Average	207.5	3.60	191.2	61.9	19.2	22.80%
ZiPS	191.7	3.71	191.0	53.0	23.0	17.75%
Snark (Marcel)	161.0	3.80	145.0	54.0	17.0	23.08%
2011 Results	200.3	4.40	169.0	56.0	35.0	0.00%

Unfortunately, compared to what was projected, Colby was very disappointing. As a very inexpensive pitcher he had a pretty decent year, but it was a big step down from his 2010 season. Strikeouts went down and home runs allowed nearly doubled. Colby was a mix of strong and terrible starts... his game by game variance was the highest of any Rangers starter [despite the Derek Holland narrative]. We later found out he was dealing with a hip injury throughout the year, but ultimately Colby's season was well below expectations.

Using a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) approach [lower is better] the top and bottom individual projections have TideNTexas at the top of the projections and PM Productions at the bottom.

Everyone's rankings can be found in this Google Spreadsheet and the top and bottom 5 shake out as:

Top 5	IP	ERA	K	BB	HR	RMSE
1. seanathan	205.0	3.68	181.0	55.0	24.0	16.73%
2. philkid3	200.0	3.60	190.0	50.0	25.0	16.80%
3. RangerMad	211.0	3.76	187.0	61.0	24.0	17.29%
4. rectalitch	212.0	3.66	195.0	68.0	24.0	19.26%
5. t ball	208.0	3.66	201.0	57.0	23.0	19.29%

Bottom 5	IP	ERA	K	BB	HR	RMSE
57. utlonghorn24	221.0	3.43	197.0	56.0	14.0	30.91%
58. erudy	218.0	3.28	228.0	78.0	18.0	31.19%
59. Section 339	205.0	3.30	210.0	45.0	15.0	31.40%
60. GoFrogs	220.0	3.40	205.0	51.0	14.0	31.80%
61. Bats and Balls	220.0	3.16	200.0	55.0	14.0	31.95%

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Comments

Did we ever hear any specifics about what was wrong with his hip?

by blakethegr8 on Dec 2, 2011 1:32 PM CST reply actions

I haven't heard anything, nor have I heard anything on the treatment.

It kinda concerns me. I’m hesitant to expect that it will actually be better next year without knowing more about what the actual issue was and what they are doing to make it better.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Dec 2, 2011 1:46 PM CST up reply actions

My sentimonies as well.

I know this makes no sense, but I’d feel better if I heard about some kind of surgery this offseason.

by blakethegr8 on Dec 2, 2011 2:21 PM CST up reply actions

With Colby's hip

and Ogando’s IP last year, the Rangers can’t afford to trade any SPs

by RangerMad on Dec 3, 2011 1:12 PM CST up reply actions

pretty good, bigfan

"...out of the shadows of unprecedented success, the sun shines down upon this team waiting to thrill anew." - ghostofErikThompson

by jam0152 on Dec 2, 2011 1:38 PM CST reply actions

looks like the HR rate really drove the winners and losers

"God dammit TAG I swear to God if you keep this "It was a close play" shit up all night I will send you cookies made from my own shit" -River Fenix 8/26/2011

"this is a big reason I decided not to convert to Islam now if it was 72 skanks? Different story, my friend" Bob Loblaw 9/2/2011

by I am Neftali Feliz on Dec 2, 2011 1:55 PM CST reply actions

or HR/9

"God dammit TAG I swear to God if you keep this "It was a close play" shit up all night I will send you cookies made from my own shit" -River Fenix 8/26/2011

"this is a big reason I decided not to convert to Islam now if it was 72 skanks? Different story, my friend" Bob Loblaw 9/2/2011

by I am Neftali Feliz on Dec 2, 2011 1:55 PM CST up reply actions

Yes, kind of like PAs

The guy right under me in the ratings Dirk Diggler was closer on every stat except HRs. And he only picked a difference of 4 HRs.

by Mark from OC on Dec 2, 2011 2:25 PM CST up reply actions

HRs, Ks and BBs were not done by total.

But by rate. I didn’t want to double penalize for innings.

So if you pick 200 innings and 20 HR… that’s a 0.90 HR/9. But if you picked 180 innings and 20 HR that’s a 1.00 HR/9.

I compare HR/9 to what Colby actually did for those things.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Dec 2, 2011 2:28 PM CST up reply actions

Got it.

Makes sense to not double penalize for innings. That’s why I picked more strikouts than just about anyone else… because I predicted that Colby would throw more innings than anyone else.

That said, I will do it again next season. I expect Colby to come back strong and do even better than his 2010 year.

by Mark from OC on Dec 2, 2011 2:41 PM CST up reply actions