2011 Community Projections Review: Colby Lewis

DETROIT, MI - OCTOBER 11: Colby Lewis #48 of the Texas Rangers throws a pitch in the first inning of Game Three of the American League Championship Series against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on October 11, 2011 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)

Colby Lewis had a shockingly successful return to Major League baseball in 2010. He gave the Texas Rangers a 3.72 ERA in 201 strong innings with peripherals of 8.78 K/9, 2.91 BB/9 and 0.94 HR/9. The community projections were very bullish on Colbyashi's chances to repeat or improve on his 2010 numbers and he had the best numbers of any projected starter for 2011 with many expecting him to be the best pitcher in the rotation instead of the Opening Day starter, C.J. Wilson.

IP ERA K BB HR RMSE
LSB Average 207.5 3.60 191.2 61.9 19.2 22.80%
ZiPS 191.7 3.71 191.0 53.0 23.0 17.75%
Snark (Marcel) 161.0 3.80 145.0 54.0 17.0 23.08%
2011 Results 200.3 4.40 169.0 56.0 35.0 0.00%

Unfortunately, compared to what was projected, Colby was very disappointing. As a very inexpensive pitcher he had a pretty decent year, but it was a big step down from his 2010 season. Strikeouts went down and home runs allowed nearly doubled. Colby was a mix of strong and terrible starts... his game by game variance was the highest of any Rangers starter [despite the Derek Holland narrative]. We later found out he was dealing with a hip injury throughout the year, but ultimately Colby's season was well below expectations.

Using a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) approach [lower is better] the top and bottom individual projections have TideNTexas at the top of the projections and PM Productions at the bottom.

Everyone's rankings can be found in this Google Spreadsheet and the top and bottom 5 shake out as:

Top 5
IP ERA K BB HR RMSE
1. seanathan 205.0 3.68 181.0 55.0 24.0 16.73%
2. philkid3 200.0 3.60 190.0 50.0 25.0 16.80%
3. RangerMad 211.0 3.76 187.0 61.0 24.0 17.29%
4. rectalitch 212.0 3.66 195.0 68.0 24.0 19.26%
5. t ball 208.0 3.66 201.0 57.0 23.0 19.29%
Bottom 5
IP ERA K BB HR RMSE
57. utlonghorn24 221.0 3.43 197.0 56.0 14.0 30.91%
58. erudy 218.0 3.28 228.0 78.0 18.0 31.19%
59. Section 339 205.0 3.30 210.0 45.0 15.0 31.40%
60. GoFrogs 220.0 3.40 205.0 51.0 14.0 31.80%
61. Bats and Balls 220.0 3.16 200.0 55.0 14.0 31.95%
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