2011 Community Projections Review: Derek Holland

by Brad on Dec 5, 2011 1:00 PM CST

ARLINGTON, TX - OCTOBER 23: Derek Holland #45 of the Texas Rangers pitches in the first inning during Game Four of the MLB World Series against the St. Louis Cardinals at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington on October 23, 2011 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images)

Derek Holland came into the 2011 season as one of the most polarizing members of the Texas Rangers. His 2010 was a mixture of injuries and up and down performances with time split between AAA and the big league club. He posted a 4.08 ERA in 57.1 innings in the 2010 regular season, but his post season included an epic meltdown in the World Series on a national stage. The LSB community is a mix of those who love Holland and think he'll be a stud, those who don't trust him and some who think he's probably going to be traded at any minute. The projections were fairly optimistic in expecting to get 164 innings from Holland, but with a moderate 4.03 ERA.

	IP	ERA	K	BB	HR	RMSE
LSB Average	164.7	4.03	142.6	61.1	18.5	9.03%
ZiPS	125.0	4.54	103.0	45.0	18.0	22.36%
Snark (Marcel)	91.0	4.50	75.0	32.0	12.0	26.38%
2011 Results	198.0	3.95	162.0	67.0	22.0	0.00%

Holland was as up and down in 2011 as his projections where. He tied for the AL lead in shutouts but also had several memorable meltdowns where he didn't make it past the second inning. His aggregate numbers were fairly close to the projections with a nice bump with 198 innings pitched. Holland ended the 2011 season with a very strong second half, posting a 3.06 ERA compared to the 4.68 in the first half. He also provided a new World Series memory with 8.1 shut out innings in Game 4 for an epically awesome performance on a national stage.

Using a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) approach [lower is better] the top and bottom individual projections have seanathan at the top of the projections and rockin_rangers at the bottom.

Everyone's rankings can be found in this Google Spreadsheet and the top and bottom 5 shake out as:

Top 5	IP	ERA	K	BB	HR	RMSE
1. seanathan	190.0	3.90	158.0	67.0	21.0	2.78%
2. crazy86er	186.0	4.01	165.0	67.0	21.0	5.55%
3. Baseball North	180.0	3.75	160.0	60.0	20.0	6.09%
4. Poltergeist	178.0	3.77	142.0	62.0	22.0	7.26%
5. t ball	177.0	3.63	157.0	62.0	19.0	7.39%

Bottom 5	IP	ERA	K	BB	HR	RMSE
59. tklawless	152.0	4.32	138.0	90.0	16.0	35.77%
60. JBImaknee	100.0	5.49	79.0	53.0	13.0	38.67%
61. Section 339	190.0	2.35	125.0	14.0	15.0	42.42%
62. jdh90	125.0	4.25	116.0	88.0	13.0	51.60%
63. rockin_rangers	98.0	4.57	95.0	88.0	8.0	78.98%

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Comments

So happy one of my favorite ever prospects

broke out, and then had a most-awesome playoff game. Onward and upward, I hope.

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Dec 5, 2011 1:05 PM CST reply actions

We all do

We’re not about sending messages. We’re about winning ballgames.-Wash, 04/03/11
Hell to the fucking no. -Wash, 10/07/11

by Rodney on Dec 5, 2011 1:13 PM CST up reply actions

We all are*?

I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)

by Gay For Feliz on Dec 5, 2011 1:18 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

hope, I think he meant

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Dec 5, 2011 1:26 PM CST up reply actions

Better it be

I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)

by Gay For Feliz on Dec 5, 2011 1:29 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Right!

We’re not about sending messages. We’re about winning ballgames.-Wash, 04/03/11
Hell to the fucking no. -Wash, 10/07/11

by Rodney on Dec 5, 2011 5:44 PM CST up reply actions

I nailed ERA and BB

Off on IP and SO

I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)

by Gay For Feliz on Dec 5, 2011 1:17 PM CST via mobile reply actions

PA killed me!

by TheHuntforRedOctober on Dec 5, 2011 1:30 PM CST reply actions

Ha

I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)

by Gay For Feliz on Dec 5, 2011 1:43 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

seanathan was pretty damn close with his prediction

Really is remarkable how many innings the Rangers got out of their starting pitchers. Nearly 68% of the total. Not sure what is really good league wide, but considering the Rangers pitching staffs of the past that is great.

by casew on Dec 5, 2011 2:13 PM CST reply actions

I think the Phillies got more...

Maybe the Angels and White Sox too.

But the Rangers had one of the most productive rotations in baseball.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Dec 5, 2011 2:15 PM CST up reply actions

Didn't think he would last the year as a starter

Very glad he did. I expect a no-hitter from Holland within the next 2 seasons, but I won’t talk about it gameday.

by Mark from OC on Dec 5, 2011 3:44 PM CST reply actions

Wear it.

"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz

"Baseball's all that's real" - JB

by Ryin A on Dec 5, 2011 3:55 PM CST via mobile reply actions

The American Standard?

We’re not about sending messages. We’re about winning ballgames.-Wash, 04/03/11
Hell to the fucking no. -Wash, 10/07/11

by Rodney on Dec 5, 2011 5:45 PM CST up reply actions

Not bad for pulling those numbers out of my ass.

It fascinates me how the first couple of seconds you can see it go spurt spurt against the back wall and then the pressure equalizes or something and it comes in smoother. - Closure GT on Aug 22, 2011

by crazy86er on Dec 7, 2011 2:41 PM CST reply actions