2011 Community Projections Review: Tommy Hunter

TORONTO, CANADA - SEPTEMBER 11: Tommy Hunter #39 of the Baltimore Orioles is pulled after 2 home runs in the 8th against the Toronto Blue Jays during MLB action at the Rogers Centre September 11, 2011 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Abelimages/Getty Images)

The final Community Projection Review is Tommy Hunter. At the time we gave the projections, Tommy had already injured his groin and was expected back in late April. The innings projection was fairly limited based on knowing he would lose a month with Alexi Ogando taking a few starts for him. His 13-4 record and 3.73 ERA in 2010 gave a few hope that Tommy would be a productive innings eater in 2011 when he did return though, but the average expected his ERA to look more like the 4.99 FIP his peripherals supported in 2010.

LSB Average 127.8 4.48 72.4 37.7 16.8 332.68%
ZiPS 159.7 4.73 92.0 50.0 24.0 426.98%
Snark (Marcel) 134.0 3.96 84.0 39.0 17.0 349.90%
2011 Results 15.3 2.93 10.0 5.0 1.0 0.00%

Instead of coming back in late April, the combination of Tommy re-aggravating his groin during a rehab assignment and Alexi Ogando pitching well enough in the first half to make the All Star team relegated his work with the Rangers to a few relief appearances before eventually being packaged with Chris Davis in a deadline deal for Koji Uehara. Tommy didn't pitch badly in his few relief appearances putting up a 2.93 ERA and 3.55 in only 15.1 innings. His time in Baltimore saw him back as a starter and his Orioles numbers were closer to what LSB projected with a 5.06 ERA and 4.68 FIP in 69.1 innings.

I've shown the rankings, but because of the limited innings pitched the sample is fairly meaningless and everyone was way off. IP drives the rankings here because of the giant divide between even the most pessimistic projections... and the 2.93 ERA that is far better that the most optimistic projections is also kind of meaningless. Here's the spreadsheet with everyone in it.

On Monday at 1:00 PM the final results of who did the best and worst overall will be published and the Nelson Cruz bobblehead awarded.

Top 5
1. rectalitch 86.0 5.12 45.0 26.0 12.0 215.61%
2. seanathan 87.0 5.68 40.0 24.0 14.0 224.02%
3. AjaxJones 98.0 5.45 52.0 29.0 11.0 247.04%
4. NorCalRangersFan 100.0 5.12 65.0 45.0 13.0 254.27%
5. Ryin A 99.0 5.99 43.0 21.0 14.0 255.37%
Bottom 5
41. mathewsherill 148.0 4.12 92.0 52.0 18.0 390.23%
42. Closure GT 150.0 4.45 84.0 36.0 21.0 397.93%
43. Athos 150.0 4.50 85.0 42.0 25.0 400.59%
44. DJCahill 165.0 4.20 110.0 50.0 18.0 439.03%
45. Mark from OC 176.0 3.77 88.0 44.0 22.0 471.90%
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