Brisbee: Is the 2005 draft the best draft ever?
Rob Neyer Grant Brisbeehas a piece up about the 2005 draft, and taking a preliminary look on whether it will be able to stake a claim as being the best draft ever.
Neyer Brisbee notes that the gold standard among drafts is the 1985 draft, which included Barry Bonds, Barry Larkin, Will Clark, B.J. Surhoff, Bobby Witt, and Pete Incaviglia among the top 10 picks.*
* If that doesn't seem like an incredible bounty of talent in the top 10, you need to go look at the history of MLB drafts. If you get a halfway decent regular with a top 10 pick, you are doing good..
The Rangers, of course, pretty well whiffed on that draft, with Michael Kirkman being the one draftee who still has a chance to do something of significance to redeem it for Texas.
The thing that sticks out about this draft to me was that it was the first draft after Buck Showalter and Orel Hershiser's palace coup that got Grady Fuson forced out, although Fuson was supposedly not all that involved in the 2004 draft, either. The big black mark on Fuson's record, and the thing everyone pointed to to explain why he had to go and John Hart had to stay on, was the Drew Meyer selection...you can't, they argued, use a first round pick on a position player who needs to have his swing rebuilt.
So, we get to the 2005 draft, and the Rangers select...John Mayberry, Jr. A position player who needs to have his swing rebuilt. And unlike Meyer, who was considered a premium defender, a guy whose only value was in his bat.
In any case, the 2005 draft was particularly deep in late first round and supplemental round talent, with the Rangers passing on, among others, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Garza, Colby Rasmus, and Clay Buchholz to grab Mayberry.
And their second round pick saw them reach for Kingwood infielder Johnny Whittleman, who is now part of the Kansas City contingent of former Ranger minor leaguers. Since the Rangers never hit on their second round picks, Whittleman flaming out is no surprise.
In any case...Neyer's Brisbee's piece is worth a read, but I think it is also worth going back and looking at what the rest of the 2005 first round looks like. While the Rangers screwed up this draft, and there are quality players they passed on, if you look through the players picked in the first round in 2005, you see a lot of people who have gone on to do nothing.
If you look at how many misses there were in the 2005 draft and consider that it is being talked about as one of the all-time great drafts, it truly puts into perspective what a crapshoot the MLB amateur draft is.
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Maybe it's just me
but that pic looks like an optical illusion. It appears Mayberry’s body is about five feet closer to the camera than his head.
"I love baseball. You know it doesn't have to mean anything, it's just beautiful to watch." - Woody Allen
by Suicide Prince on Apr 26, 2011 12:33 PM CDT reply actions
Yeah, the value of the draft
really came through for me when I saw how many lifetime WAR the Rangers have made from it. It also shows what a huge deal choking on even one pick like Drew Meyer or John Mayberry Jr can make a huge difference to a teams future.
"I wanted to go out there and punch Julio" - Ron Washington
I get really annoyed at revisionist history of people saying
things like “I can’t believe the Rangers took Jeff Kunkel instead of Cal Ripken” (I think that is the example I’ve heard before…)
The odds of any non-top 5 player succeeding from a draft are pretty low and relatively the same. Sometimes there are clear cases where there were two players linked together and a team took the wrong one (Drabek and Kiker; Mayberry and Ellsbury). Of course, we remember those because they were on the wrong end of it; we aren’t agonizing over taking Blake Beavan over Tim Alderson in 2007. Even in those cases where we can point to bad logic that led to a bad outcome, like Kiker; we don’t necessarily do the same thing for cases where we got lucky (e.g., Tommy Hunter).
Go Rice Owls!
Matt Harrison - 2011 Rangers #3 Starter!
by JBImaknee on Apr 26, 2011 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
sorry, Amos Lewis, not Jeff Kunkel (he was like 5 years later, I don't know what I was thinking)
Of course, some 50 picks came before the Iron Man… Never midn that – the Rangers are the stupid ones for passing him.
Go Rice Owls!
Matt Harrison - 2011 Rangers #3 Starter!
I still can't believe we didn't trade up to get Strasburg.
WTF was JD doing?
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"I’d perform oral sex on Greg Oden before I’d hit that."- Adam J. Morris about Ke$ha, 4/17/2011.
Jon "Jerrry Jones" Daniels!
Amirite?
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Apr 26, 2011 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions
But the fact that the Rangers have rarely
in the past taken the Cal Ripken, or the Frank Thomas, explains a lot of the reason why the Rangers have the history they have. When I showed the top Ranger Draft picks by WAR, its a pretty sad history.
Missing occasionally is going to happen. When guys like Mike Stanley Travis Hafner and Joe Coleman are amongst your best draft picks, its an ongoing franchise issue.
"I wanted to go out there and punch Julio" - Ron Washington
How many teams do you think have a truly elite player that they've taken in the draft the last 40 years
You think most of them?
I suspect winning teams
have much better players in their all time top 10 than Mike Stanley, Travis Hafner and Joe Coleman.
"I wanted to go out there and punch Julio" - Ron Washington
Would be interesting to see
The other issue with this exercise is how man franchises would you consider being “winning” in the last 40 years. I bet it is less than half, unless you are going with a literal definition.
Yeah, obviously
if you wanted to look at the better franchises it would be less than half of them. The Rangers are obviously one of the weaker franchises over the course of their history, so it shouldn’t be a surprise how underwhelming their drafts have been.
"I wanted to go out there and punch Julio" - Ron Washington
So I guess there are a couple of things here
1) The Rangers I don’t think are necessarily snake bitten when it comes to the draft. I would guess there are a lot of franchises that can’t lay claim to a great Top 3 from the draft within the last 40 years. I’m not sure if you agree with that.
2) Getting a good two-three players from the draft might signal success but not sure if that’s always the case. Again, not sure if you agree with the last part of the statement
3) The good teams probably all drafted well. I assume you agree with this as do I, though I wonder if there is a team that has drafted particularly well but doesn’t have a whole lot of success to show for it. Maybe Montreal?
and then the question is
Were the good teams good because they drafted “well” or because they had more picks pan out?
Nelson Cruz - 2011 MVP
top 10 Rangers first round picks:
1) Kevin Brown
2) Mark Teixeira
3) Joe Coleman
4) Rick Helling
5) Ron Darling
6) Jeff Burroughs
7) He who shall not be named (traded for Brandon McCarthy)
8) Bobby Witt
9) Carlos Pena
10) Roy Howell
note that this is according to BR’s WAR, and its not really close.
restricting ourselves to post 2005, we have:
1) Tommy Hunter
2) Julio Borbon
3) Justin Smoak
4) John Mayberry
and that’s it for guys who’ve even reached the majors.
second round is worse. Roger Pavlik is the only second rounder with more than 1 WAR.
third round is better, but Zito, the best, didn’t sign, and Oliver, Palmer, Blalock, Teagarden and Peltier were all disappointments.
fourth round, Jim Clancy and Kevin Mench.
fifth round, buechele and Rick Waits. (CJ is moving up this one.)
sixth round: Aaron Harang
seventh round, Mike Lamb (position, catcher.)
eighth round, Jim Sundberg
tenth round, we got Rusty Greer and Doug Davis
Why don't you have a nice big cup of shut the fuck up? - Lisa W 3/4/2011
Just from the first round in our division
the A’s have a number of 30+ WAR / career players:
Rick Monday
Reggie Jackson
Mark McGwire
Chet Lemon
Eric Chavez
Barry Zito
At least Jackson and McGwire, at minimum, are elite.
The Mariners have:
Arod
Ken Griffy Jr
(1977 franchise start – both are elite)
The Halos have:
Troy Glaus
Jered Weaver (19 war – will likely be over 30)
Frank Tanana
We have:
Mark Teixeira
Kevin Brown
Just based on the first round, it isn’t especially surprising that the A’s have won 4 World Series since 65 whereas the rest of the entire division has won one. It seems, however, that it is exceedingly important to draft “elite” or even “solid” players near one another.
Ok
but that doensnt’ necessarily prove up the points (and it shouldn’t because anything can happen when you are looking at samples of two).
But the Halos list is the least impressive and they won a WS. The Mariners list could be the most impressive just on the strength of those two players but because there was very little overlap, they only had one good year.
He left out
a mess of players, like Tim Salmon and Wally Joyner and Devon White, etc. who would have easily cracked the Rangers top 5.
"I wanted to go out there and punch Julio" - Ron Washington
Yeah,
this is a bit silly. How many of elite players are drafted high, developed, and then spend most or more than a few years with the same team?
Is this current Rangers team bad because they didn’t draft Josh Hamilton? How do you count players drafted by this organization that were traded away?
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Apr 26, 2011 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions
was the mariners
list really rocket science though? i mean they were both once in a generation type players
by studcrackers on Apr 26, 2011 5:43 PM CDT up reply actions
OT
Topic of the night at the bar in Santa Monica last night:
Charlie Sheen bailed Lenny Dykstra out of jail last week.
Lone Star Ball - 2010 -- It's time
I'm a believer
Lenny Dykstra is always on topic.
Raise your hand if you're an albino.
by Jorbert Jorgenson on Apr 26, 2011 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions
As much of a train wreck as he is, Sheen sure knows how to stay on the front page..
Either he’s a genius at self-promotion, or his PR team is underpaid.
The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano
Give it another couple of months and he will be yesterday's news.
Unless he and Lindsey Lohan team up for a summer 2012 romantic comedy.
Raise your hand if you're an albino.
by Jorbert Jorgenson on Apr 26, 2011 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions
Nope
Charlie Sheen >>>> Lindsey. Bigger star and more well known, too.
Lone Star Ball - 2010 -- It's time
I'm a believer
by Mark from OC on Apr 26, 2011 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions
Charlie Sheen is at least good at acting.
Oh, this is the spot where everyone else puts long, annoying stories that take up the entire page.
I thought his PR person
quit a month or so ago. Probably the best thing for him since he didn’t follow the failed path most stars do of going to rehab then begging for forgiveness.
"I wanted to go out there and punch Julio" - Ron Washington
Exactly, that's why I'm somewhat intrigued with his current path
It’s basically untrodden ground.
The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano
Someone is going to sign him
to a movie or TV deal. There is always someone who wants the pub.
"I wanted to go out there and punch Julio" - Ron Washington
The thought is he will be back on the same show
It has been hugely successful with him; without him, give it a year or 1 and a half seasons before it shuts down.
Lone Star Ball - 2010 -- It's time
I'm a believer
by Mark from OC on Apr 26, 2011 2:42 PM CDT up reply actions
I keep hearing
the network is pushing for them to re-sign him, and lorre is saying hell no. I can’t see that show continuing without him.
"I wanted to go out there and punch Julio" - Ron Washington
HD Net already did?
Or did that fall through?
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Apr 26, 2011 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions
Thought it fell through, but who knows
Under the original terms, no way Charlie would sign it. He would never get paid because he wouldn’t make it through the rehab provision.
Lone Star Ball - 2010 -- It's time
I'm a believer
by Mark from OC on Apr 26, 2011 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions
That could get him off the front page
Jail time. But he has to be caught in a crime.
Lone Star Ball - 2010 -- It's time
I'm a believer
by Mark from OC on Apr 26, 2011 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions
Behold: the second round wasteland
Roger Pavlik is the “successful” one of the group. .6 career WAR is the second highest contribution. Wow.
The Rangers and the second round
They really should just sign a free agent and forfeit that pick every year. It’s gotten to the point that I look at the draft each June to see who they picked in Round 2, simply so I know not to get my hopes up too much. Even if Jamey, Scott, or Parks tell me that the guy is a future stud, and write glowing reports about him week after week, I’m still like, “Rangers’ second rounder. Never gonna amount to shit.”
"Napoli batting regularly in Arlington will be the biggest explosion in the American Southwest since Robert Oppenheimer tested the Manahttan Project."
-- RevHaloFan
Wow. I remember watching Pawelek (LHP picked right after JMJ) in the NWL and being blown away.
Promote Mike Olt to Round Rock!
The final portion of Adam's post should be re-stated over and over and over again in June
it truly puts into perspective what a crapshoot the MLB amateur draft is
"Whenever I'm about to do something, I think 'Would an idiot do that?' And if they would, I do not do that thing."

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