A.L. West Standings
by Adam J. Morris on May 19, 2011 11:00 AM CDT
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Lolerz
Los Angeles has gone 21 innings without scoring. The Angels were shut out in consecutive games for the second time this season.
We’re not about sending messages. We’re about winning ballgames.-Wash, 04/03/11
Consecutive?
ouch.
ite-Bay e-May, itches-Bay.
by AfterSchoolSpecial on May 19, 2011 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions
Good thing Mathis is still carrying them...
The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano
First place.
Mother effing.
Texas Rangers. Y’all.
"...out of the shadows of unprecedented success, the sun shines down upon this team waiting to thrill anew." - ghostofErikThompson
every time is see the standings
I think of the game that was stolen from us by the umpires. I’ll be really pissed if that comes back to haunt us.
but still, yeah 1st place
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
this may be possible
but at what expense. it will now be a double header in which you usually depend more on your bullpen
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
good point...still bullshit to begin with
I am coming for you, Mark Lowe.
You’d better run, because there will be more with me.
I WILL DESTROY YOU MARK LOWE. ---LSJ 3/24
Its not a double header.
It is replacing what would have been an off day for both teams
I was just thinking of this....
Seven runs against G. Soto and it gets cancelled!!!! That’s a tough pitcher and that was taken away.
The weird thing about this
Is that if given the option before the game was started to have it cancelled and played later I’d have said yes without any hesitation. No confidence in Harry at that point and Hamilton/Cruz were on the DL.
Baseball is a fickle mistress.
You've heard my band?
"...out of the shadows of unprecedented success, the sun shines down upon this team waiting to thrill anew." - ghostofErikThompson
I wonder if that brutal loss to Oakland on Monday night helped
kick-start a slump for the Angels.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
by Josey Wales on May 19, 2011 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions
The average OPS is currently .707.
Down from .728 last season, .751 the year before, and .778 in 1999. It’s the lowest since .700 in 1992.
MLB teams are scoring 4.2 runs a game. Down from 4.4, 4.6 in 2009, and 5.1 in 1999. It’s the lowest since 1992, when teams scored 4.1 R/G.
Good
it’s a better brand of baseball. I prefer a game where runs matter due to their scarcity as opposed to them mattering because you need as many as possible because no lead ever feels safe.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 19, 2011 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions
Need some more data.
Lots of cold, wet weather thru most of the country.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
by Josey Wales on May 19, 2011 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions
Data has already been run on how little run environments actually change after April, and how sometimes it even goes down (like last year).
Partly because pitching velocity goes up.
Also, your predictions are on pace to be less accurate than mine.
When Texas Rangers are at home... 10.17 runs scored per game by both teams.
When Texas Rangers are on the road … 7.21 runs scored per game by both teams.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
by Josey Wales on May 19, 2011 11:56 AM CDT up reply actions
Wonderful job
ignoring park factors. I’m sure playing in Detroit and Seattle don’t have anything to do with that.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 19, 2011 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Last year when Texas Rangers were at home... 9.49 runs scored per game by both teams
Last year when Texas Rangers were on road …. 8.52 runs scored per game by both teams.
Like I said, more data (and warmer, drier weather) are needed.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
by Josey Wales on May 19, 2011 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions
and what parks have we played in on the road?.....come on Josey
I am coming for you, Mark Lowe.
You’d better run, because there will be more with me.
I WILL DESTROY YOU MARK LOWE. ---LSJ 3/24
I'm not criticizing the Rangers.
I said more data (warmer and drier weather) are needed to get a better grasp of what’s going on this year.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
by Josey Wales on May 19, 2011 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Except you are basing that
completely on just what is happening in Rangers games this year.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 19, 2011 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions
yea i know...but it mainly has to do w/ what parks they are playing in
weather doesn’t have that much of an impact
I am coming for you, Mark Lowe.
You’d better run, because there will be more with me.
I WILL DESTROY YOU MARK LOWE. ---LSJ 3/24
I realize the difference with ballparks but don't tell me weather doesn't
have much of an impact.
We see it firsthand in Arlington.
When the wind is howling out of the south, it creates a jet stream. In June, July, August it gets extremely hot which can tax starting pitchers which then helps teams break into bullpens earlier than usual.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
by Josey Wales on May 19, 2011 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions
i put the jet stream in the ballpark category
but I do see your point. its a combo of everything.
I am coming for you, Mark Lowe.
You’d better run, because there will be more with me.
I WILL DESTROY YOU MARK LOWE. ---LSJ 3/24
I don't know if it's myth or not but I've always heard that Wrigley Field
in Chicago plays much differently June thru August than it does in the other months.
Offense may be down this year but this season, where it seems like the weather has been much wetter and colder than in previous seasons, I’d like to see more data, at least up to the AS Break.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
by Josey Wales on May 19, 2011 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions
true that and i'm sure you're right about wrigley
I’d like to see how much the runs increase at BPiA over the course of this season especially since pitching performances are up across the league.
I am coming for you, Mark Lowe.
You’d better run, because there will be more with me.
I WILL DESTROY YOU MARK LOWE. ---LSJ 3/24
Per the weather at BPiA...
It’s been fairly generic. We’ve had warm windy days, wet days, cool evenings with northerly winds and sultry humid evenings as well.
My recollection of last summer was that it was typical and only became a beating in mid August.
Run production in Arlington, where the weather has been generic, is up from where it was last year.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
by Josey Wales on May 19, 2011 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions
So that proves
that statistics baseball wide shouldn’t be trusted? Got it.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 19, 2011 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions
No, Woodcock.
I said I wanted to see more data before rendering an opinion.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
by Josey Wales on May 19, 2011 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Which means you don't trust the stats
Why do you always have to call names? Crutch of the uneducated…
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 19, 2011 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions
Woodcock fits you like an old shoe.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
by Josey Wales on May 19, 2011 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions
Insults
are the favorite weapon of the uneducated children and ignorant adults.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 19, 2011 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions
...and Woodcock.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
by Josey Wales on May 19, 2011 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't insult you.
I merely allow you to post and point out the idiocracy in them. You do 90% of the work for me.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 19, 2011 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions
It's ALWAYS everyone else.
If he acts like a racist, and someone points it out, the person pointing it out must be relying on some kind of crutch. It’s absurd.
I really don't insult him for the most part.
I reply to his posts in a condescending tone, but I don’t resort to simple, lazy name calling like he does. He’s a horse on it’s last legs. Glue factory just around the corner…
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 19, 2011 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions
its
no need for the apostrophe
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 19, 2011 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Woodcock gotta be Woodcock
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Such poor effort
It’s like watching a 35 year old still toiling away in AA ball.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 19, 2011 1:16 PM CDT up reply actions
As mentioned above, it fits.
It also stings.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Believe me
it doesn’t sting one bit. I am 100% satisfied with my choice of professions. Can you say the same?
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 19, 2011 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Awwww, facebook stunt still has you down?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Josey also likes to lie and lie.
And lie and lie. It’s awfully childish.
The lying that I mention don’t even encompass his plagarism.
x
I merely allow you to post and point out the idiocracy in them. You do 90% of the work for me.
I don’t think that word means what you think it means.
(I was actually surprised when I first learned it was a word at all.)
It still fits
His idiosyncrasy is that he isn’t capable of making quality posts.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 19, 2011 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions
August is a beating for sure.....maybe I can get some cheap tickets and sweat my ass off a few times
I am coming for you, Mark Lowe.
You’d better run, because there will be more with me.
I WILL DESTROY YOU MARK LOWE. ---LSJ 3/24
Sit first base side
the sun goes down on that side way earlier.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 19, 2011 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions
oh of course
I am coming for you, Mark Lowe.
You’d better run, because there will be more with me.
I WILL DESTROY YOU MARK LOWE. ---LSJ 3/24
we just had out first child so I'm sure my wife isn't going to want to go
I bet I can get away a few times then.
I am coming for you, Mark Lowe.
You’d better run, because there will be more with me.
I WILL DESTROY YOU MARK LOWE. ---LSJ 3/24
I have learned that the sun moves about 2 rows per inning on the first base side.
Starts with row 26/27 being the last one w/ sunshine at ~1:00 and goes from there.
And like I said, warmer weather doesn't typically have a great effect on league offense.
Since 2000, offense in April is usually higher than the season as a whole, not lower. It’s less than 1%, but it is slightly higher. In fact, only 3 seasons (’05, ’07, and ’08) had lower scoring in April than overall.
But, but, but
Rangers games, jet streams, hot weather. Hitters are obviously the only people who benefit from warmer weather. Forget that pitchers can get and stay loose easier and get a better feel for their pitches. That doesn’t happen…
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 19, 2011 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions
I was a bit confused how something about MLB offense was refuted(?) by Rangers specific numbers.
Someone the other day posted a nice graphic on how fastball velocity goes up as the weather gets warmer.
It's what old people do.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 19, 2011 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions
.
Over the last 10 years the average difference between April and the season OPS was -7 (max differential -27)
But what happened in the Rangers games?
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 19, 2011 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions
Was the weather exactly the same the last 10 years as it was in 2011?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
by Josey Wales on May 19, 2011 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions
extremes in one area
might not mean the whole is changed overly much. Besides, the trend in lower OPS and BaBIP seems to stretch back more than a year or so, not a sudden thing caused by April weather.
Nelson Cruz - 2011 MVP
If the issue is disparity between road production and home production for the Rangers..
It has always been said, and I agree, that cold weather is the pitcher’s friend. The Rangers have run into cold weather, where the ball didn’t carry particularly well in Detroit, Chicago, and maybe to a certain extent NY, Oakland, and Seattle.
But in general, the ball carries better in the summer than it does early in the season. However, pitchers and bullpens are often more fine tuned as the season wears on. Still for the Rangers, they don’t seem to hit the ball particularly well in cold weather situations. There’s no place like home, unless you buy into “the heat will wear the Rangers out” theory.
I think you should write an article about that.
The bare stats and couple of conclusions you reached here don’t really do that justice…
by FuturePants on May 19, 2011 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions
Looking forward to it.
We’re not about sending messages. We’re about winning ballgames.-Wash, 04/03/11
Bullshit, I just didn't know we had an official contest. And how are you scoring this?
Good luck getting your Minnesota Twins to 90 wins and the AL Central title.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
He did a RMSE comparison of all projections.
Yours are mathematically impossible BTW.
"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT
Posting predictions after the season would help with that too.
But that wouldn’t be a valid set of projections.
If they don’t work… they aren’t valid IMO.
"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT
That's a very different thing...
It’s like how the simulation-based projections have teams all bunched up. Minimizing overall numerical error and creating projections that “look right” (or act right) are somewhat orthogonal goals.
Did I have 10 wins/losses too many with one of the leagues? Does that mean I can't win the contest that has point totals tbd?
Personally, I’m much more interested in nailing the Rangers record, the division winners, the wild card qualifiers and the order that the other teams finish.
As far as I can tell, my 85-77 prediction for the Rangers adds up to 162 games played which makes that record mathematically possible.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
That is for the Rangers
But if you add up all your wins and losses it doesn’t equal .500 for all teams.
"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT
Would it be possible to pass that test but still be mathematically impossible?
It doesn’t seem like it would be easy to verify, in any case. That’s a bigass network.
Yes. You could pass that test.
But not work given the actual schedule.
But if you can’t pass that test you absolutely are impossible.
"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT
I could be approaching this in an altogether too-complicated manner (I'm looking at it like it's an integer programming problem),
but the constraints list would be big.
You’d need a constraint for every pair of teams that plays each other during a season. And maybe some other constraints too?
Never mind
I didn’t understand what you were trying to say. You are asking whether you could verify a W-L projection for all teams given a certain schedule? That would obviously be complicated.
I thought you were trying to prove whether or not a schedule is impossible even though it passes the test of all losses = all wins = 4860. That’s not that complicated.
Well I can't think of a non proof-by-contradiction way of showing that
you could have a projection that passes the wins=losses but would fail the actual schedule. My assumption is that you should definitely be able to create one, but I can’t think of any tricks to prove it.
Er, nevermind, I'm dumb.
Creating a preposterous set of standings that still summed to equal wins and losses would be easy, so obviously that’s not a fully sufficient test.
Well
only because we know certain things about the schedule such as division mates play each other. So you couldn’t have one whole division going undefeated while another whole division was winless.
Yeah, or all the AL being undefeated.
There are enough extremely-easy-to-check constraints to find a contradictory example without having to be able to validate any particular set of records.
It is actually quite complicated to verify a projection based on schedule
I just tried to do a 4 team, 10 game each schedule and my brain exploded.
Hat tip to anybody who can verify it (and in a cool way)
AL West
10 game schedule.
Rangers play the A’s 4 times. Angels play the Mariners 4 times. All other teams play each other 3 times.
Rangers 9-1
Angels 6-4
A’s 4-6
Mariners 1-9
Is that possible?
I'm not aware of any way to verify constraint programs without either:
a TON of manual by-hand work or a program to do it for you.
The programs need not be that complicated, though. Figuring out the most elegant/shortest way to enter the constraints is often the hard part (especially if you’re using an existing solver program).
well right
I am looking for elegant ways to enter the constraints. You would think it wouldn’t’ be that complicated for 20 games, right?
Even small constraint problems can get hairy fast.
I think I’ve almost got a good way of creating the constraints, but I can’t quite put my finger on it.
Ugh, I think you could do it with something based on this, but it's much less clean than I'd like:
You’d have something like this for each pair of teams (concatenated for simplicity of presentation):
And then one of these for each team:
It's definitely still not something you want to solve by hand,
cause you’re going to have a big, big tree of possible values for those sub-terms.
Actually that's not too bad to solve by hand,
since the 9-1/1-9 cases cause a bunch of the subterms to get zeroed out very quickly.
One solution:
Texas goes 2-1 against Seattle, 4-0 against Oakland, 3-0 against LA.
LA goes 0-3 against Texas, 4-0 against Seattle, 2-1 against Oakland.
Oakland goes 0-4 against Texas, 3-0 against Seattle, 1-2 against LA.
Seattle goes 0-4 against LA, 0-3 against Oakland, 1-2 against Texas.
And then you'd ask it
“Can W_Tex = x, W_LAA = y, …”
(And now this feels like a pretty easy job for Prolog instead of needing a more math-centric solver, which is a benefit of this approach. But it’s still ugly.)
Rules engines for the win.
Drools w/ a custom DSL would make it look pretty too. I betcha this is how MLB comes up w/ schedules too. Just a bunch of rules about weekends, holidays, ASB, divisions, etc.
Example out of my head even w/out using custom DSL:
Rangers play the A’s 4 times. Angels play the Mariners 4 times. All other teams play each other 3 times.
Rangers 9-1
Angels 6-4
A’s 4-6
Mariners 1-9
rule simple_team_check
when
s: Schedule()
Team (name == “TEX”, againstLaa == 4, againstOak == 3, againstSea == 3, wins == 9, losses = 1)
Team (name == “LAA”, againstTex == 4, againstOak == 3, againstSea == 3, wins == 6, losses = 4)
Team (name == “OAK”, againstLaa == 3, againstTex == 3, againstSea == 4, wins == 4, losses = 6)
Team (name == “SEA”, againstLaa == 3, againstOak == 4, againstTex == 3, wins == 1, losses = 9)
then
System.out.println(s);
when
Object()
then
System.out.println(“Impossible”);
end
Then just construct a simple couple of classes for the schedule and team and run. Very small amount of code. Of course, recursive checks w/ these just as conditionals in code does a similar thing, but more rudimentary.
Less code than you'd need to build the verifier from scratch,
but still looks like a fair bit more than throwing it in Prolog or some derivative, just cause you’re cramming a declarative language into Java. People do so love to reinvent the wheel. :)
Nope. This is what drools does.
Just like all of those puzzles you had in grade school where it only gave you certain pieces of information. You just have to instruct it how to perform the permutations. And it is much more intelligent than guess-and-check recursive models. Here’s a simple golfing example: Rules and code
I would never write more than a few lines of code to be able to solve this problem no matter the input. Luckily in Java (said all sarcastically), I have dozens of these to choose from.
It's a framework to generate the constraints for you by hand,
so it’s shorter than explicitly enumerating all the resulting rules in Prolog. But based on those examples, I’m guessing a simple Ruby or such program to generate the Prolog rules would be shorter. Or there are similar frameworks for other languages to do that for you in a similarly declarative way, though I haven’t used them.
But the Java legacy definitely appears to show in those examples. For instance:
position != 1,
position != 4,
position != $fred.position,
position != $joe.position,
position != $bob.position
Ick.
Ick indeed. DSL's for the win.
So it would be something like “when TEX goes 9-1 with 4 games against LAA, 3 against OAK, and 3 against SEA”. It looks like English at that point (crude example).
Eh,
I still don’t see the benefits to it outside of a corporate environment where you’re locked in to Java or another enterprisey language. So much language overhead/baggage from trying to force it into a role that it wasn’t designed for.
There aren't any cool ways coming to me.
If I were writing a program I would use the actual schedule and just do a game by game prediction.
I don’t think it is complicated… but I do think it would be tedious and time consuming.
"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT
Well, there are cooler (more elegant) ways than that.
I think you could just extract the relevant constraints from the schedule and throw it at an existing constraint solver. Which could then transform it to SAT (woo NP-complete) and plow through it.
And I thought I did do that...everybody adding up to .500
but I may have tweaked a couple of places and then didn’t take away / add where I should have with a corresponding move.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
I didn't check your work either.
That’s just what philkid said last night and I took him at his word.
So fuck if I know.
"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT
My combined AL predictions had teams going 1137-1131.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
That's okay with interleague.
"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT
It's the AL / NL combined number that matters.
"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT
I don't know what happened...thought I added and subtracted
where needed.
There are no rules…some people picked division winners, some picked the order of finish, some picked all of the above with the number of wins.
What’s important to me is nailing the Ranger record, division winners, wild cards and order of finish.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Sure.
You don’t have to care that they don’t work… there aren’t any rules.
"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT
You sound like a dad
consoling a whiny child. The 2nd part does fit, so keep it up.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 19, 2011 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Well...
That wasn’t my intent.
My personal experience is that if you converse with Josey like an adult he will do the same.
"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT
Only if you coddle him
like you are doing. Sure slugger, there are no rules. You don’t need to worry that your math was off. Here’s a ribbon for participating. Team party at Pizza Hut later tonight.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 19, 2011 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions
Hardly.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011, in response to me saying I would rather face the Thunder than the Grizzlies in the WCF.
You have a better grasp of my PERSONAL experience?
"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT
Well he could
since your personal experience is limited to interactions on this board which we are all privy to and you might be suffering from bias that he isn’t.
Pow.
Could, sure.
But that doesn’t mean he does. And it wasn’t his intent to say he does.
"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT
So you have a better grasp of my SUBJECTIVE intent?
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011, in response to me saying I would rather face the Thunder than the Grizzlies in the WCF.
Wrong about what?
That I don’t talk to Josey like he’s an adult or that Josey doesn’t talk to me like an adult?
"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT
Perhaps I do from the fact that they are broadcast.
But I’m speaking more to the concept that the rest of us are not speaking to him as an adult. That is simply false.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011, in response to me saying I would rather face the Thunder than the Grizzlies in the WCF.
Perhaps.
But I’ll take my own opinion on my personal experience over anyone else’s opinion of it.
And my point wasn’t to indicate that others don’t treat Josey like an adult.
ASL specifically said I was talking to him like a child, and that wasn’t my intent at all. I was stating that I try and talk to him like an adult.
The Josey interaction and history is a complicated one. The opinions he has are… Josey’d. But the vitriol between him and other people on this board pre-dates me significantly.
He doesn’t call me names or generally antagonize me and I don’t do that to him either. Even though we disagree pretty much every day.
"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT
Not that I care because this is generally boring
but it’s funny that you think you have a better grasp of your personal experience with him when one could make the case that you don’t’ have a great grasp of the experience you just had with him where one person (and me) thought you were talking down to him while you didn’t think so.
Well if a case needs to be made...
We should bring in some lawyers to argue the semantics of it. =)
I <3 ab03 and Aquaman.
I really do… both of you are smart funny people. I find myself in these subthreads and hope that you guys know that these aren’t things I take personally. I wonder without tone if messages are properly received based on intent.
Though either or both of you may dislike me… I’m not always sure… but I <3 you regardless.
"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT
Personally I think the way to handle Josey is to assume he's smarter than you.
hehz
by Closure GT on May 19, 2011 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
No... I do.
And while Josey can be a complete cock to several people… especially ASL, you and Aquaman, I’ve also seen people chase him down to call him names and tell him how stupid he is.
Given the years of interaction I would assume there is no going back for most of you guys… some deep rooted hate.
I do know that if I were to pick guys to hang out with, I’d rather hang out with FP, Aqua or ASL. Hell… part of that is just similar ages and interests.
Anyway… I don’t want to be in the shit storm that you guys go through… I have no ability to control anything other than my own part of the interactions… so I try and take care not to start a personal war with him.
"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT
How would you reply to somebody who called you a racist if it wasn't true?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Probably argue with them awhile and get pissed off.
Then reflect on it.
Then try and see where they are coming from.
Then try and rationally come to a resolution.
"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT
That's all fair -
But stating that getting Josey to have a normal conversation is as simple as speaking to him as an adult is absurd.
For someone with a history with him, yes.
Its too far gone.
For new people… not necessarily.
"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT
I disagree entirely.
Josey has good and bad spurts where, at times, he can be fine. But then a week like this week pops up and he isn’t nice, reasonable, rational, polite or otherwise to anyone on the entire board, which this week ended up with him apparently being banned last night.
Josey has a multitude of rules created for him and him alone because he is a child, and the administration has decided that he must be treated like a child. If he ever gave any one person an indication that he was anything but, I’m sure his interactions with everyone would improve.
I've never written a facebook message
to another male friend ripping him because he sided with The Newberg when The Newberg called me a Douche.
You know why?
Because that’s a cunt move made by a 9th grade girl.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Although, if I count your losses, I'll bet you have 4,860 games being played.
So I’ll bet you magically have some teams losing games while their opponents lose as well.
Which is fine if you’re not one to puff your chest about these things.
Or if you're PECOTA.
http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post//id/1245/bps-projected-nl-standings-rox-in-l-a-out
/id/1243/bps-projected-al-standings-yanks-in-third" target="_blank">http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/1243/bps-projected-al-standings-yanks-in-third
2429 wins, 2431 losses.
Which supports my initial guess that “good” projections, especially RMSE-wise, are likely to be different than feasible actual final standings.
whoa, link fail
wait
what do those number represent. You summed all of the wins and all of the losses for every team or just one league?
Ok
I’m assuming you did.
Anyway, it’s off by one. That could just be rounding error. That’s not really a big deal.
Josey's are supposedly off by 13.
13 out of 2430 wins is still just half a percent.
But really my main point is that I would not have assumed that feasibility would be a requirement, especially if MSE was mentioned as an evaluation function. That said, I don’t know if it was explicitly stated as one since I didn’t see all the threads on the preseason predictions, in which case nevermind.
Though I do doubt that anyone actually fully validated their predictions.
Interestingly the 2009 CHONE ones here have the same overall 2429-2431 record.
http://www.baseballprojection.com/2009standings.htm
Having trouble finding a site with a bunch of these across years, though…
And since the raw PECOTA ones I’ve seen on BP’s blog list fractional wins, it definitely could be a rounding error; however, that alone tells you that they’re not concerned with whether or not the projections are feasible.
The only people I expect to bother. . .
. . . are the people who are going to try and use it to call others out.
And the people
who mention their predictions 250 times before they make them like anyone cares.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 19, 2011 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions
Like the 94 win White Sox?
Point being, before you insult someone’s predictions, you should make sure you’re doing better with your own. Otherwise it ends up being hilarious.
How the fuck are you doing "better"?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
We both chose Boston to win the AL East.
I took Chicago to win the AL Central, you took Minnesota.
I took Oakland to win the AL West, you took Texas.
I took Detroit to win the Wild Card, you took NYY.
I had Texas at 85-77, you had Texas at 91-71.
Chi has a chance in the AL Central if Cleveland wakes up but Minnesota is dead.
AL West & Wild Card is still in the air.
Texas is on pace for 86-76.
AL – Advantage Josey.
I took the ATL to win the NL East, you took Philly.
I took Milwaukee to win the NL Central, you took the Reds.
We both took Colorado to win the NL West.
I took Florida for the Wild Card, you took San Francisco.
All NL predictions are still alive.
Advantage to Little Boy Blue for the NL.
It’s fairly even thru the quarter-pole.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Slim... but slim is better than the none Minnesota is sporting.
But I’d be happy to wager any and all sums of money on the White Sox not having 94 wins.
"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT
Coming back from 19-25 to win the AL Central can
happen very easily but a lot of it’s predicated on Cleveland coming back to the pack.
The White Sox have had a strange season. They started 7-4, went 4-18 and then went 8-3.
I suspect they’ll be close to .500 by early June and then it’s all a matter of what Cleveland does.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Minnesota has a theoretical chance
But they look like a corpse out there. It would take them really turning around the ship to win that division… and I don’t think they’ve shown anything to indicate that is even in the realm of possibility.
"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT
Can you name a 14-27 team that decimated injury
not to mention hungover from last year’s post-season that has ever come back to win 90 games?
Their pythag (11-30) suggests they’ve been lucky to win 14 games.
I know the Astros went from 15-30 to 89-73 and the World Series but it’s pretty rare.
On the other hand, the 2002 A’s started out 19-25 and ended up winning 103 games. A couple of the Braves teams from the early 90s started out 20-27 or somesuch and won more than 90 games.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
That was shocks me
for a guy who rambles on and on about walks and OBP, his favorite player rarely walks and he picks a team that is 25th in the majors in walks to win 94 games.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 19, 2011 1:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Full season historically.
But full season numbers aren’t generally too far from April numbers, so it’s definitely deep enough in the season to pay attention.
BabIP
I saw somewhere the other day that it’s about .285ish right now, also about the lowest since 1992. Weird.
We need to mentally adjust how we rate players. AL catchers are collectively about .650 OPS right now, yuck. (Aside: I was ridiculed this winter when I suggested Russell Martin might be a good bounceback target.). Other positions:
1B .785
2B .688!
3B .687!
SS .681
LF .621! !!!!!!!!!!!!
CF .733
RF .780
DH .739
Weird.
Nelson Cruz - 2011 MVP
by t ball on May 19, 2011 12:05 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Yes we do
AL as a whole: .249/.320/.388/.708
NL: .250/.320/.385/.705
We’re not about sending messages. We’re about winning ballgames.-Wash, 04/03/11
and the oddest thing about that
is that pitchers drag down the NL numbers, so really the NL is outhitting the AL right now. Here are the NL splits:
C .735
1B .757
2B .701
3B .703
SS .683
LF .759
CF .752
RF .789
P .337
PH just .577 in nearly 1,000 at bats.
Nelson Cruz - 2011 MVP
Woah, didn't even consider that
We’re not about sending messages. We’re about winning ballgames.-Wash, 04/03/11
I'm not trying to toldjaso...
I’m just curious if this changes your stance on whether PED’s help numbers? Or, do you think this is just a cyclical occurrence?
As someone with a similar stance to Tball's, nope.
I imagine it’s a combination of many things, including stricter testing, stricter bat regulations, emphasis on defense, the rise of the cut fastball, and even perhaps different baseballs and/or strikezones.
Not at all.
Offense surged pretty suddenly in the early 90s. Did players all begin taking PEDs at once? I think this is pretty complex and there are probably multiple factors at play here. People like simple answers, though.
Nelson Cruz - 2011 MVP
There are certainly multiple factors,
But, the 90’s are the time when PED’s and HGH seemed to be at its peak usage, and many players showed seasons that differed dramatically from career norms.
With Bautista being the only player to do this, off the top of my head, in the last 5-6 years…
Very obviously, there are multiple factors at play… however, it’s a hellova coincidence if HGH isn’t partly to blame.
Seem to be at peak usage
do we know this? It does indeed SEEM to be true. But even if that is definitely and demonstrably true, we STILL do not know how and how much PEDs affect the stats in the game. And pitchers took PEDs too.
Nelson Cruz - 2011 MVP
I'm not looking to get into an epistemological argument
But according to most players’ reports… it was widely used. We can’t be certain, which is why I said “seem,” but I’d guess that an 80’s player in financial trouble would have come forth if it were equally widespread back then.
Also, neither velocity speed nor pitch movement (to me) appear to be as correlated to muscle mass as home run power is.
Assuming velocity speed is not different than velocity
I think lots of people attribute increased velocity to PED’s, especially for relievers. Not that I believe them but if you are going off of anecdotes, than you can’t ignore that one.
Interesting, I hadn't heard that
Sorry for being redundant there.
Just going off my sportscenter and occasional non-Rangers game watching, I feel like velocity has increased (which would further help account for depressed offensive numbers).
I feel like there are more 98+ throwing pitchers these days than in the 90’s, but I could obviously be wrong. Is there no way to research this?
and anecdotally
there are a ton of high velo guys in this year’s draft, with testing in place. Anyway, I’m willing to concede that PEDs had some effect, but the picture is much more complicated than many (especially too many in the media) are willing to admit. And in general, I wonder if velo has increased over the decades, something that we probably don’t have data for going too far back.
I wish more smarty pants math guys would dig into this because it’s interesting how offense has changed over the decades. How has pitch selection/sequencing and pitcher usage changed over the last couple decades? Have pitchers caught up to hitters, have the effects of adding two dozen pitchers through expansion, and about 30 pitchers through bigger bullpens evened out?
Strike zones affected by pitch f/x at all? Pitcher preparation/game calling changed because of same? Defense is hot again, etc. etc.
Nelson Cruz - 2011 MVP
And I'm inclined to believe that many players did somewhat perfect taking PED's all around the same time.
I have no evidence to support this of course.
I wonder if things changed once Manny got busted the first time.
IIRC, he got nailed for a masking agent of some sort. Seems like #’s have really tumbled since then (Spring of 2009?).
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
I'm not sure what you mean "things changed" since 2009.
Manny did get 50 games a couple years back for a banned substance. But if you are talking “things changing”, it would be the BALCO/Conte thing in 2003 followed by Canseco’s book in 2005 where players got scared.
remember last season when we had a list of awesome things and memorable moments?
what are this years? things off the top of my head…
rangers sweep boston
chuck greenberg gets the ‘see ya’ from big oil bosses
by I am Neftali Feliz on May 19, 2011 11:50 AM CDT reply actions
Mitch's granny and a W being erased
Beltre has had some memorable moments
"...out of the shadows of unprecedented success, the sun shines down upon this team waiting to thrill anew." - ghostofErikThompson
The hot start
Godwin's Law Version 2.0 (Rangers Edition)
"As a Ranger discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Danks, Volquez, or Young approaches one."
by LBBRangerFan on May 19, 2011 11:53 AM CDT up reply actions
The very first play of the season was Cruz and Borbon running into each other going after a flyball.
"...out of the shadows of unprecedented success, the sun shines down upon this team waiting to thrill anew." - ghostofErikThompson
Needs moar skulls...
The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano
How about some off the field stuff...
LSB Tailgate w/ Chuck Morgan and Herbie
New vidja board
Texas legends races
Stop the wave sign
I have seen some funny ones. The other day...
theRangersGame
With lots of Youth Leaguers in the ballpark today, tell us the first team you played for or a favorite memory of playing youth baseball.
stopthewave
the first time I pitched in little league I gave up 5 runs in the first inning but struck out the side!
Cheedaburgey
The Josh slide into home
Sliced
Countless Beltre plays
Countless fielding errors
by RyanBlueThunder on May 19, 2011 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions
Turning 6 double plays in one game at NYY
GIDP: Rodriguez, A; Teixeira; Cano; Jeter; Jones, An; Swisher.
It's baseball. You don't always get what you want, and you don't always want what you get. --Ed Coffin
Credit Harry
"...out of the shadows of unprecedented success, the sun shines down upon this team waiting to thrill anew." - ghostofErikThompson
Do the other teams at least have injuries holding them back
Morales doesn’t count since he’s never going to play baseball again
Bailey being out probably hurt OAK a bit
Gutz being out until the other day?
We’re not about sending messages. We’re about winning ballgames.-Wash, 04/03/11
Frankling Gutierrez?
I’m not worried about Sea.
I guess Bailey is problematic, but I don’t know the rest of their bullpen
I am not worried about SEA either, just answering your question.
Other than the above, I am at a loss.
We’re not about sending messages. We’re about winning ballgames.-Wash, 04/03/11
They're saying there's a possibility.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on May 19, 2011 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions
heh when Wells is your main addition to the team......you have problems.
I am coming for you, Mark Lowe.
You’d better run, because there will be more with me.
I WILL DESTROY YOU MARK LOWE. ---LSJ 3/24
Not really
But he is having/has had another surgery on the ankle. Kinda hard to play with a bad wheel.
We’re not about sending messages. We’re about winning ballgames.-Wash, 04/03/11
Bailey and Braden in Oakland
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
by Josey Wales on May 19, 2011 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Gammons this morning
said it’s time to stop relying so much on Bailey to be healthy. He got hurt his last year of college and the last 2 years of pro ball.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 19, 2011 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Ebersol resigned
Woah.
We’re not about sending messages. We’re about winning ballgames.-Wash, 04/03/11
No one wants to work for Comcast
He probably tried to call their customer service dept.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 19, 2011 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions
So at work today
an older female partner referenced “Tinker to Evers to Chance” in an email.
She used the phrase somewhat incorrectly (referenced to not wanting to have a middle man) but it is still pretty awesome. I asked some of my Cubs friends about it and nobody knew the reference so it must not something that most Chicago people know.
Made my day. I love working for her.
People in Chicago don't know that?
Do they not know “Let’s play two!” either?
"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT
A's take another hit
Tyson Ross was pulled from Thursday’s start against the Twins in the first inning with an apparent injury
Uh oh.
After only 8 pitches, yikes
Wait, this line can’t be correct:
T. Ross 0.0 1 1 1 0 0 0
We’re not about sending messages. We’re about winning ballgames.-Wash, 04/03/11
Well crap
Nelson Cruz will take tonight off and continue minor league rehab assignment in Round Rock this weekend.
Reported by many
And more from Jeff Wilson
Cruz hasn’t suffered a setback. He’s 2 for 11 in three games. Washington wants Cruz and Hamilton to get 20 to 30 ABs before they return.
This probably means Cruz back early next week and Hamilton back next weekend.
Yeah that could be the case.
Didn’t he play OF last night? If so, wonder why they would suddenly decide he can’t play out there…
He did play OF last night
And no further mention on your second thought. Everyone’s just saying a precautionary day off. Hopefully there isn’t anything more to it than that.
Frisco goes on the road after today. Sounds like RR is at home this weekend.
I’m guessing both Hamilton/Cruz head to RR tomorrow to keep them in a home environment.
I have no idea who the current RR outfielders are but I’m guessing they need to ‘move out the way’.
x
Maybe I’m going a little overboard here, but if the team is saying they want x amount of rehab time, it seems odd that they would sit the guy unless they are honestly simply being way mega overly cautious….but if that was the case, why play him in the OF last night?
I’m going in circles, I think.
Maybe just a mental break after going 2 for 11.
We’re not about sending messages. We’re about winning ballgames.-Wash, 04/03/11
Royals - Jeffress down, Tejada up
Royals optioned RHP Jeremy Jeffress to Triple-A Omaha
Robinson Tejeda up instead. This should be fun!
They used their entire bullpen last night, didn't they?
And Hochevar isn’t a guarantee to go deep into the game.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011, in response to me saying I would rather face the Thunder than the Grizzlies in the WCF.
Weather looks like we'll get a game in too.
http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/graph/36933:20
"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT
They used everyone but Adcock last night
The KC bully is pretty taxed right now. Getting to Hochever early would put them in quite a pickle.
Coleman has pitched 3 straight games. (30 pitches total). 2 straight games for Teaford (24 pitches), Crow (31 pitches), and Wood (34 pitches). Collins threw 30 pitches last night, Soria 19.
Looks like the Rangers will get a heavy dose of Adcock and Tejeda tonight if necessary.
Offered without comment
Per Jeff Wilson
Michael Young getting first day off of season. Chris Davis will DH and bat fourth.
It is like I'm the last person invited to the party.
All you rebellious kids going on topic in the OT thread. I need me a dilly bar.
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