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Sending Mike Napoli -- A Poll

Much discussion last night and today about the decision by Dave Anderson to send Mike Napoli home last night, trying to score from first base on a single by Elvis Andrus with two outs in the bottom of the ninth and Andres Blanco coming up next.

Tom Tango has a run expectancy chart that shows that, from 1993-2010, with runners on first and third and two outs, at least one run scored 28.8% of the time.  BP has a story from 2009 that shows that the run frequency at 26.7%, presumably because they are using a most recent and narrower span of years (remember that the late 90s and early 00s were eras when offenses performed at historically high levels, which skews the frequency upwards).

You can tweak the numbers if you like...you can push the percentages down because Joakim Soria is a great pitcher, or push them up because Soria was struggling, or push them down because Andres Blanco is a weaker-than-average hitter.  

But in any case, the likelihood of the Rangers getting Napoli home if he's held at third in that situation is in the 25-30% range.  Which means that, if you are going to send Napoli, he has to have at least a 25-30% chance of scoring for that to be the right decision.

The gut reaction is that sending Napoli is a mistake, that all Kansas City has to do is execute and he'll be out, and you're better off letting Blanco swing the bat.  I think part of that has to do with the almost passive nature of sending Napoli...if you are sending Napoli, you aren't doing so in the hope that he'll do something right or make a play.  Once you send him, in that situation, you are doing so hoping that the Royals make a mistake in execution.  And I think that, on a visceral level, that sort of lack of control, taking the chances of success out of your hands and instead hoping for the other side to make a mistake, just feels wrong.  Rely on your guy -- in this case, Blanco -- to make a play and do something good, rather than relying on the other side to screw up.

But assuming Napoli is going to be thrown out is working off a set of nested assumptions.  I harken back to the explanation I was once given about why you want to err on the side of betting when you are heads-up in Texas Hold 'em -- for the other player to win, first they have to call you, second they have to have a better hand, and third they have to hope you don't suck out.  

Similarly, in sending Napoli, if the Royals execute, he's out.  But first, Mitch Maier has to make a good throw to the cutoff man.  Second, the cutoff man has to field the throw cleanly and make a good throw home.  Third, the catcher has to catch the ball cleanly.  Fourth, the catcher has to get the tag down on Napoli.

All those things are much more likely than not to happen...but they all have to happen together.  Just to pull numbers out of the air, if each of the two throws have a 95% chance of being made, and the two catcher actions each have a 90% chance of being done properly, that gives Napoli about a 27% chance of being safe...in other words, right around the breakeven point.

Given all that...I am putting up a poll on this issue.  Cast your vote below...

Poll
Should Dave Anderson have sent Mike Napoli home on Sunday in the 9th inning?
Yes
188 votes
No
204 votes
Don't know/not sure/could go either way
97 votes

489 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 92 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Comments

Display:

I agree that the risk was worth it

considering all the moves that had to go right for the Royals. Additionally, the Rangers have not done well this year in extended games and I’m sure they didn’t want to see the BP have to throw 2 or 3 more innings.

by rectalitch on May 30, 2011 11:17 AM CDT reply actions  

yes. it was a brazen move, but

with two outs and dave bush’s impending appearance, there weren’t many options.

by feed me with your kiss on May 30, 2011 11:20 AM CDT reply actions  

I voted no, despite yesterday's outcome

In most cases, Napoli would have been out, but the catcher effed up the play at the plate, and we benefited from it

Don't play F A G! Do not play F A G! Don't- (BLAST F). OH MY GOD WHAT ARE YOU (BLAST A) DOING?! I SAID NOT TO (BLAST G)!

by DFWTrojanTuba on May 30, 2011 11:22 AM CDT reply actions  

I pussed out and went for not sure

I probably would have held him, but I don’t think it was a bad decision to test him. The Right Fielder was pretty deep when he got to the ball

by blakethegr8 on May 30, 2011 11:23 AM CDT reply actions  

test him?

that read “send him” in my brain

by blakethegr8 on May 30, 2011 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions  

I seconded your pussy with not sure

Not Sure is the smartest man in the world though

"Life's tough... It's even tougher if you're stupid." - John Wayne

by Texas Jihad on May 30, 2011 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions  

I see what you did there

Ron Washington...giving hope everywhere to the kids who eat lead paint chips of being a big league manager when they grow up since 2007.

by rangers85 on May 30, 2011 12:14 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

I have something to bring up on this topic...

Why don’t more third base coaches send the runner when there is a ball hit into the outfield? Naps was out by a mile, so really, no matter who is running or where he is at (obviously not standing on second when the throw is coming in) shouldn’t the 3B coach always send the guy?

The only arguments I can come up with against that is:

1 . Just because 3B coaches don’t do it more often doesn’t make it right (see bunting to move a runner over with no outs in the 4th inning)
2 . These are pros, and the odds of them making those throws, relays, and tags are much higher than the proposed 95/90% that AJM is proposing.

"I don't really like pitchers." - Nelson Cruz

by AceJC on May 30, 2011 11:31 AM CDT reply actions  

Well

If there are less than two out, they are going to be more conservative.

With two outs, though, you see guys sent most of the time, and those are the instances where you see guys thrown out by a mile.

by Adam J. Morris on May 30, 2011 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions  

If there are less than 2 outs, they will certainly be more conservative

because they have better odds of getting the runner home, certainly.

I’m curious about your last sentence, if there is somewhere that accounts for third base coach decision making and rates them. Or has the numbers on how often they are safe or out.

"I don't really like pitchers." - Nelson Cruz

by AceJC on May 30, 2011 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions  

Biggest issue

you can score multiple runs by sending him

this instance is different because only one run was relevant

Josey Wales is stupid

by Horns130 on May 30, 2011 12:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm confused at what you're saying.

How can you score multiple runs by sending him?

"I don't really like pitchers." - Nelson Cruz

by AceJC on May 30, 2011 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

My bad

i think i changed how i wanted to write that mid-thought

obviously sending him reduces your chances of scoring multiple runs

Josey Wales is stupid

by Horns130 on May 30, 2011 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

yeah

if you’re not in the bottom of the ninth of a tie game, the guy at 1st also has value. You’re risking the big inning in almost any other case, which probably biases the decision enough to avoid it.

2 outs, bottom of the ninth, tie game is a very unique situation in baseball. You should play it differently…

Go Rice Owls!
Matt Harrison - once upon a time a good #3 starter...

by JBImaknee on May 30, 2011 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think AJM's percentages are fair...

Because the increased leverage of the situation increases the chances that someone chokes. Also, Buster Posey gets an assist on the play.

by imjustsayin' on May 30, 2011 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

FWIW

Fangraphs fan scouting report has him at 46/49 for arm strength and accuracy. This may be very well known on his pro scouting reports.

We’re not about sending messages. We’re about winning ballgames.-Wash, 04/03/11

by Rodney on May 30, 2011 11:36 AM CDT reply actions  

I wonder if there is another variable in play here

Hosmer is a young kid still learning the ropes in the majors. based on where the ball was hit Hosmer was standing almost next to 1B as the cutoff man. With Elvis rounding first as normal I wonder if there was any thought that Hosmer may for a split second focus on Elvis and then that may affect his throw home.

Just a thought.

After watching the replays I was wondering if it would have been best for Elvis to just keep on going to second base. Hosmer is standing right there and I can imagine he would have gotten confused, if only for a split second, as to whether he could tag Elvis quickly or go ahead and throw home. If Elvis gets in any kind of rundown there Napoli scores easily.

If it was a veteran 1B over there it wouldn’t have crossed my mind but with a rookie of his age I wonder if that was even remotely in the thought process.

by bigsteve on May 30, 2011 11:40 AM CDT reply actions  

Excellent point

That would increase the probability of success on the play.

by imjustsayin' on May 30, 2011 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

Even if it's close on the odds

There’s a morale factor of having the elation from getting another hit to get the runner over and having Blanco (2 for 4 on the day) facing an incredibly wild Soria with Hamilton deck… to having him gunned down and deflating that whole situation with everyone now thinking “here we go again”.

Napoli is our second worst base runner in a small sample size of advancing on a hit per Baseball Prospectus. Napoli didn’t expect to be sent there.

TAG couldn’t believe he was sent there.

You were nearly guaranteeing an out like we were bunting. I’d rather not put a runner in a position to need a miracle and see if you can continue to beat their struggling closer.

"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT

by Brad on May 30, 2011 11:51 AM CDT reply actions  

Then I guess it's a good thing that Soria was wild as hell.

Because even a player who rarely walks can get one from a guy with serious command issues.

Or perhaps he gets a hit.

Either way… I would rather play those odds than Napoli scoring on a miracle. It wouldn’t have taken a great defensive string of plays to get him out. Just average and he’s out by 5 feet. He was out by 10+ if not for the poor tag.

"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT

by Brad on May 30, 2011 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

A 25-30% chance is not a "miracle."

Just because the variable that actually failed for the Royals isn’t the one that would normally fail (a poor throw is more likely, I’d think), doesn’t make Napoli scoring there a “miracle.”

Innovators look at the same thing as everyone else, yet see something different.

by K. Scott Bailey on May 30, 2011 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

No one has convinced me that 25-30% of the time in that situation a player scores.

"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT

by Brad on May 30, 2011 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions  

You witnessed one of the variables that I mentioned last night work in the Rangers' favor.

Just because something isn’t as absolutely quantifiable as OBP doesn’t mean that there aren’t certain probabilities that each action is executed. Since such things aren’t measured definitively, we describe them using probabilities that are relatively logical.

Innovators look at the same thing as everyone else, yet see something different.

by K. Scott Bailey on May 30, 2011 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

Me, either.

Also, no one has convinced me that 25-30% of the time the player doesn’t.

by philkid3 on May 30, 2011 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

And yet he was safe, because it takes a string of executed defensive plays to get him out.

Soria was and has been wild, but we don’t know how he would’ve approached the light-hitting Blanco, who’s a decent bet to get on base 30 percent of the time against right-handers. Given how often Blanco strikes out, relative to the rest of his game, I don’t think it’s out of the question that Soria simply decides to challenge him a way he wouldn’t a guy like Cruz or Napoli. And yes, Murphy should have walked, but that doesn’t change the fact that Moreland struck out swinging the batter before.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on May 30, 2011 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions  

Well I guess results are all the counts right?

Screw the process.

"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT

by Brad on May 30, 2011 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions  

That's not what I'm saying at all, and you know it.

You certainly are persnickety today.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on May 30, 2011 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

I quit smoking yesterday.

"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT

by Brad on May 30, 2011 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

x

http://www.stopsmokingclinicsdfw.com/

We’re not about sending messages. We’re about winning ballgames.-Wash, 04/03/11

by Rodney on May 30, 2011 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm a pro at quitting smoking.

This will be my third time quitting.

I smoked from 15 to 26 at about a pack a day. Didn’t touch a cigarette for 3 years after that.

Then the last serious girlfriend prior to me dating my fiancee tried to commit suicide after we broke up and didn’t have much a support system. That stress (and still having several friends that smoke) got me back to smoking about half a pack a day until I quit a year later.

Then this past fall I became my grandmother’s durable PoA for her last 8 months of life and she has a son (my uncle) who’s a heroin addict, thief and overall shitbag and he saw her illness as opportunity to try and rob her blind. That got me to my current state of smoking again.

If smoking wasn’t bad for you… I’d never quit. I like smoking… always did.

"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT

by Brad on May 30, 2011 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

Jesus.

"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz

"Baseball's all that's real" - JB

by Ryin A on May 30, 2011 1:26 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

He can probably smoke as much as he wants.

"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT

by Brad on May 30, 2011 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Awesome visual

"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz

"Baseball's all that's real" - JB

by Ryin A on May 30, 2011 2:13 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

No one is REMOTELY saying that.

Innovators look at the same thing as everyone else, yet see something different.

by K. Scott Bailey on May 30, 2011 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

AndrusImpersonator is saying exactly that.

We won the mother fucking game didn’t we?

"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT

by Brad on May 30, 2011 2:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

i hate to micro-analyze a split second judgement call

i didn’t even look at a replay. but if the outfielder fielded it cleanly, i take the relay as a given. then it’s just a gamble of how good a throw it is to home.

by SteveP on May 30, 2011 11:52 AM CDT reply actions  

the relay can't just be assumed to be good

because its not just getting the throw to the catcher, but getting that perfect throw that puts him in a good position to make the play at the plate.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.

"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on May 30, 2011 11:53 AM CDT up reply actions  

You've never seen an airmailed throw to the cutoff?

Innovators look at the same thing as everyone else, yet see something different.

by K. Scott Bailey on May 30, 2011 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

Borbon wasn't playing OF for KC

"My expectations today are that we're going to be extremely competitive and if we don't win our division, I'll be disappointed." Nolan Ryan

by red3biggs on May 30, 2011 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

Can Borbon 'airmail' a throw? :)

I know you're still struggling to find your way in LSB but you'd probably feel more comfortable in one of the other threads that talks about
weather, fashion, video games, uniform colors, etc. . - Josey Wales 5/18/11

by RangerMad on May 30, 2011 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yes, because Borbon is the only OF who ever airmails a throw.

Innovators look at the same thing as everyone else, yet see something different.

by K. Scott Bailey on May 30, 2011 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think you have to send him there

It was a chance to score that was far from an automatic run, but like AJM said, you are putting the pressure on the Royals to do everything perfectly.

And beyond that, I don’t want to put our chances of victory in Andres Blanco’s hands or in the bullpen’s hands.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.

"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on May 30, 2011 11:55 AM CDT reply actions  

The bullpen part is why it was ok with me

but I would have been fine not sending him as well

"Life's tough... It's even tougher if you're stupid." - John Wayne

by Texas Jihad on May 30, 2011 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions  

I voted yes.

Napoli was already running on the play so he had a little bit of a head start.

They have to execute all the throws.

With Elvis running, there was a chance he would get in a run down.

There’s also the shock factor of them probably not expecting Napoli to be sent home, the shock of which could have caused hesitation or an errant throw.

It also seemed like they might be pushing their luck against Soria if they left it to go another batter.

Then there’s the whole Dave Bush factor, and if Anderson saw him warming up in the bullpen, he might have sent him even if the catcher already had the ball and Napoli was standing on 3rd base.

by MikeEl on May 30, 2011 11:58 AM CDT reply actions  

Okay

I said in the GDT that Bush was warming up in the bullpen, but I was just kidding. I don’t know if he was or not.

by Adam J. Morris on May 30, 2011 12:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

I didn't notice anyone up in the pen at that point.

I think Rhodes was probably coming back out.

"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT

by Brad on May 30, 2011 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

With power comes responsibility, Adam.

You can’t go around saying things like that all willy-nilly.

"I don't really like pitchers." - Nelson Cruz

by AceJC on May 30, 2011 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

It's easy to vote yes because of the result but I wouldn't have sent him.

Yes, Mr.White sucks as a hitter but Soria also didn’t have his good stuff yesterday and had been extended (24 pitches) on a very hot day.

I just don’t think you can depend on the catcher doing what he did on that play (don’t think I’ve ever seen that).

It worked out well but I don’t think it was smart.

"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."

"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."

"You want false modesty? F that."

by Josey Wales on May 30, 2011 12:06 PM CDT reply actions  

You're not depending on the catcher to do what he did.

There are other, equally important variables involved.

Innovators look at the same thing as everyone else, yet see something different.

by K. Scott Bailey on May 30, 2011 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think this would be 75% no

if Napoli was out and we lost the game. I think he odds of getting a run there are very, very poor. I’d give Blanco the chance to drive in Napoli. I also think there is an injury factor. Much of the time, the runner is running right into the catcher on a play like that. That is when injuries occur.

by Akalhar on May 30, 2011 12:12 PM CDT reply actions  

True

but you need to evaluate a play like this based on the percentage you think the play will be successful. If we took the 28-30% that was thrown last night (which I would heartily dispute), then you need to evaluate the play from the standpoint of how you would feel had the play not been successful, as nearly 3 of 4 times, this play ends in disaster. If most of the voters thought of this event in this way, there would be far more “no” votes.

However, this is a phenomenon that exists across all disciplines. It is similar to what happens when someone gets critically ill at a restaurant chain and it makes the news. Suddenly, the business dramatically decreases at the chain for a short time, because the odds of becoming critically ill from eating at the chain have dramatically increased in the minds of the general public.

by Akalhar on May 30, 2011 12:35 PM CDT up reply actions  

No.

There is a higher expectation on not sending someone to get gunned down than a player getting on base.

It’s be like Blanco deciding to bunt if he came up to sacrifice bunt with two outs and hope the fielder misplays it.

Doing something that is likely to guarantee an out intentionally seems like it’s not conducive to winning.

"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT

by Brad on May 30, 2011 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think we should just die with our boots on.

Sir, what are you talking about?

I don’t know, I was just trying to get you guys to notice my new boots.

by Closure GT on May 30, 2011 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

Going to bat as Blanco basically guarantees an out, according to your standards then.

Because Blanco’s going to make an out right around 70% of the time.

Innovators look at the same thing as everyone else, yet see something different.

by K. Scott Bailey on May 30, 2011 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions  

If the chances of throwing out Napoli are closer to 85 percent, though,

then holding Napoli and sending Blanco gives you something like 1.5-2.0 times the likelihood of scoring the run.

I’m starting to talk myself out of my vote.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on May 30, 2011 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions  

Well the key is what you deem that 1st percentage to be

i believe it is less than 85%

executing each portion of that play at a high level has to be less than 85% to me…ive seen it screwed up too many times

Josey Wales is stupid

by Horns130 on May 30, 2011 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

As have I.

I tend to think that each separate action is done well maybe 9/10 times, which gives a 34-35% chance of Napoli scoring.

Innovators look at the same thing as everyone else, yet see something different.

by K. Scott Bailey on May 30, 2011 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think with Blanco due up next..

You had to have taken a chance there.

But if it was Hamilton or Young due up, then there’s no way you send him

by TooLegitToQuit on May 30, 2011 1:10 PM CDT reply actions  

I don't disagree with this at all.

Innovators look at the same thing as everyone else, yet see something different.

by K. Scott Bailey on May 30, 2011 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

No.

"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz

"Baseball's all that's real" - JB

by Ryin A on May 30, 2011 1:27 PM CDT via mobile reply actions  

Well, the answer is obviously yes since it worked :)

However, I think that even if it failed it would have been the right move. I think your odds are reasonable and put it into the “not sure, could go either way category”. But I think there are added considerations as well.

The first is that this team has been in a big funk for about a month. They’ve recently shown some signs of life, but they have needed a major shot in the arm for a few weeks now. They needed a win like this one. They’re also a team that won in 2010 by being aggressive. This incorporates one of the new guys into their past success technique. The subjective good from that play is almost off the charts.

Meanwhile, the flip side is that if they don’t send him and Blanco fails – which happens about 3/4 of the time – then there is a fairly good chance they lose given that Dave Bush was probably the next in line for the Rangers. A win would still be sweet – but obviously not quite as exciting as this was – but another bullpen loss would be devastating. At least if Napoli is out at home and the Rangers go onto lose you can pin the blame on Anderson and make a coach the center of angst (we’d have this same poll, but it’d be mega Angrydome time…). Either way though, I’d rather have this poll today than “What to do with Neftali Feliz and the bullpen, who blew ANOTHER game to KC?”

Go Rice Owls!
Matt Harrison - once upon a time a good #3 starter...

by JBImaknee on May 30, 2011 1:39 PM CDT reply actions  

Just because it worked

doesn’t mean it was a good idea.

"Anyone that knows me, an' the game of baseball, know what Ron Washington is about."

by Atticus F on May 30, 2011 1:51 PM CDT reply actions  

Just because it might not have worked

doesn’t mean it was a bad idea.

Innovators look at the same thing as everyone else, yet see something different.

by K. Scott Bailey on May 30, 2011 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yes

I dont understand the fuss. He was safe. Dave wanted to win the fuckin game and we won the fuckin game. We won the game. We did not lose the fuckin game…we won the fuckin game. This is a non-issue.

Salma Hayek is not hot.

by AndrusImpersonator on May 30, 2011 1:52 PM CDT reply actions  

Unless

You take Anderson’s decision yesterday and combine it with sending Josh home in Detroit. One didn’t work and led to injury. The other only worked because of catcher error. Could we rightfully question Dave Anderson’s depth perception?

"Anyone that knows me, an' the game of baseball, know what Ron Washington is about."

by Atticus F on May 30, 2011 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions  

I do not combine it with anything

Dave wanted to win the mother fuckin game in the 9th and we won the mother fuckin game in the 9th.

Salma Hayek is not hot.

by AndrusImpersonator on May 30, 2011 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions  

I've maintained from the start

that a lot of the anger at Anderson about yesterday isn’t solely based on yesterday.

Innovators look at the same thing as everyone else, yet see something different.

by K. Scott Bailey on May 30, 2011 2:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

I bet

if you polled only present and past 3rd base coaches you’d be surprised how many agreed with the decision based on the game situation. I would venture a guess of 90% or more saying they would have sent him also.

"Calmer than you are dude"

by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 30, 2011 2:00 PM CDT via mobile reply actions  

It has happened before

where 3rd base coach sent runner from 1st in a similar situation. I just don’t remember it being with a well-oiled machine like Napoli running.

"Anyone that knows me, an' the game of baseball, know what Ron Washington is about."

by Atticus F on May 30, 2011 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

Of course they would

because they didn’t have to do it. Kudos to Anderson for having the cojones to send Napoli in that situation. I think the point is that if Napoli is gunned down, we have a whole different discussion here.

"Anyone that knows me, an' the game of baseball, know what Ron Washington is about."

by Atticus F on May 30, 2011 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

If he was thrown out

lots of people would bitch but it still would have been the right call. 3rd base coach is the most thankless job in baseball.

"Calmer than you are dude"

by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 30, 2011 2:13 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

Equipment guy?

"I hope the image of my erect penis sears into your brain." by ab03 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT

by Brad on May 30, 2011 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

Nobody

bitches incessantly about the equipment guy

"Calmer than you are dude"

by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 30, 2011 2:28 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

Not sure why

everyone is saying that the Royals have to execute “perfectly.”

Aside from the catcher making sure he tags the runner before he crosses home plate, the throws just have to be regularly decent throws which IMO major leaguers make >99% of the time.

The first throw just has to be in the general vicinity of the cutoff man, the relay man could have even double-clutched it and still had the ball in time to the catcher. and the throw to the catcher is one they make all the time around the diamond.

Really, the problem for KC is that Pena moved his leg from blocking the plate to not blocking the plate (though I don’t blame him for worrying about being Poseyized). And even then a lot of the times, the ump will make the incorrect call and call him out…..

So, yes, I’m extremely skeptical that it’s worth sending the runner, specifically because the Royals had a lot of wiggle room to make the play.

IF the play is going to be close at the plate, then, I agree that it becomes more of a debate. But when a player is out by 30 feet, you’re praying for a 1% miracle, which happens only once in a blue moon….

by Requiem on May 30, 2011 3:17 PM CDT reply actions  

I would definately contest the assertion that those throws are made ">99% of the time."

We see routine plays botched every day all over baseball. Even if you give him a “He’ll make the play 19 times out of 20,” you end up with a probability that’s in the vicinity of a Blanco hit.

The OFer could have dropped the ball when transitioning it to his glove (just like Cruz did), could have overthrown the cutoff man. Cutoff man could have had trouble fielding the throw, especially if it short-hopped him, or he could have thrown it off-line to the catcher. Maybe he gets distracted by Elvis rounding first there and goes after him. Catcher could have (and did) any number of things wrong.

All of that is without even considering the fact that Napoli is a big man who could barrel him over if it came to that.

I can see sending him, or not sending him. I don’t really have a problem with the call either way, since I think we’re working on similar probabilities here.

by Parker20 on May 30, 2011 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

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