The Irrationality of Modern Bullpen Usage
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 18, 2011 10:00 AM CDT
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There was one thing in particular from yesterday afternoon's game that sticks out to me...
In the 8th inning, with the Rangers up 3-0, Josh Bard led off with a double off of starter Matt Harrison. Chone Figgins grounded out, then Jack Wilson singled to bring home Bard. Ichiro struck out, bringing Franklin Gutierrez to the plate with Texas up, 3-1, two outs, and a runner at first.
At that point, Ron Washington went to the bullpen and brought in righty Mark Lowe.
This, in and of itself, highlights how foolish modern bullpen management is, since Gutierrez is representing the tying run in the game. Seattle's best chance of winning the game involved rallying at this point. It would seem only rational, only logical, that Washington would turn to Neftali Feliz, the team's best reliever, to retire the most important Seattle hitter of the game (to that point).
Now, Feliz pitched the previous two nights, so it may be that Washington didn't want to unnecessarily tax Feliz by asking him to get four outs, rather than three. Of course, you would then be justified in asking why Washington used Feliz in four runs games in each of the previous two games, thus limiting his usefulness on Sunday. But that's a separate issue...we know that, in today's game, you only use your closer for the final three outs of the game, and if that means using an inferior reliever in the most critical situation of the game because it is the 8th inning, rather than the 9th, well...so be it.
Anyway, that's not what stuck out at me. Rather, it was the fact that Darren Oliver was warming up when Lowe came into the game. Tom Grieve (or maybe it was Dave Barnett -- one of them) noted that Oliver was warming so that he could come in to face the lefty swinging Dustin Ackley, should Gutierrez get on.
As it turns out, Lowe retired Gutierrez. And with Ackley set to lead off the 9th inning, and Oliver already warmed up, Ron Washington chose to start the 9th inning with...Neftali Feliz.
Now, this is what I don't understand. Ackley would have been the go-ahead run in the bottom of the 8th. Darren Oliver gives you a platoon advantage with Ackley. You were prepared to bring Oliver into the game to face Ackley with, at the very least, the tying run on base -- possibly scoring position -- and the go-ahead run at the plate.
And yet, when it is the 9th inning, a less critical situation, rather than bringing in Oliver -- who, again, was already warmed up -- to face the lefthanded hitting Ackley, you go with your closer.
I fail to see how this makes any sort of rational sense. I don't understand why, if you are comfortable having Oliver come in in the 8th to face one batter, a lefty, because of the matchup in that situation, you wouldn't bring Oliver in to face Ackley in the 9th inning.
The response, I am guessing, would be that Oliver would come in in the 8th because he's your 8th inning guy, but Feliz is the closer, and the closer's job is the get hitters out in the 9th. And that you don't want to bring Feliz in in the middle of an inning, that you want him to start the inning with no one on base and all that.
But why? If Feliz pitches best in that situation, if he's going to be mentally out of whack because he's coming in with one out in the 9th -- or with no one out and a runner on base in the 9th -- then isn't the only reason that's the case because he's been conditioned to think that way? Conditioned, for that matter, at the major league level, where he's taught that his job is to come in in the 9th inning and get three outs?
It doesn't make sense. It is a completely irrational way to manage a bullpen. If Darren Oliver was the best guy to face Ackley in the 8th inning as the go-ahead run, he was the best guy to face Ackley as the leadoff hitter in the 9th inning. There's no reason to not use him because it is the 9th instead of the 8th.
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Numbers guys
I wonder what the advanced stats kind of guys that are in positions of influence think about this. You have to figure JD knows that it is an inefficient use of talent. Do they have to restrain themselves from saying to Wash that he isn’t maximizing his assets just because of some respect for the baseball process?
You have to think that as maddening as it is for us, it is worse for those that can do something about it and have to elect not to for doubtful-at-best reasons.
I'm guessing the numbers guys pick their battles
and that bullpen usage and batting order don’t make a big enough issue to warrant a fight.
Thank you Cliff Lee!
by DerekSTheRed on Jul 18, 2011 10:22 AM CDT up reply actions
Not too sure about bullpen usage
I guess Lowe has been pitching well enough that the drop off between Feliz and Lowe isn’t enough to upset people too much.
But this does remind me of Tony LaRussa’s tandem starter experiment, which probably was the most rational thing. Except, when something is such a drastic departure from the norm, players just don’t take to it no matter how rational.
Here, it would just have to be Feliz buying into this little experiment so it wouldn’t be too big a deal. But, you start messing with Feliz’s head, getting him out of a rhythm (to the extent there is any rhythm involved with only coming into games in the 9th inning), and you might fuck up a good thing.
sad Bill Cosby
If you have a plan to construct somekind of a crude Twix vagaina, I’m all ears.
- Bob Loblaw
it doesn't make sense
just like it doesn’t make sense that Feliz is brought in when we have 4 run leads. Closers are overrated, and rarely pitch in the highest leverage situation when they are pigeon-holed into the 9th inning.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
Wasn't one of those 4 run leads still a save situation with a runner on base?
"He’s the boomstick, you know what I mean?" -Ian Kinsler
July 3 even worse
And, of course if you go back to July 3 that was the game from hell before the current winning streak when they eventually did go to Feliz in the 8th, but not until everything had completely fallen apart with Lowe and then Oliver.. Why we didn’t go to Feliz with 2 outs and 2 on, but went to him after Lowe gave up the single and then Oliver the double I have no idea at all. Most of these problems will fix themselves if we acquire a Heath Bell or someone of that sort, who we can use in the 8th, but yes, I do completely agree with the argument. Not that it is going to change anything given the current bullpen use orthodoxy.
The problems don't go away with an Adams or Bell.
They just get masked. The general culture of ML bullpen usage is ludicrous, and Ron Washington is full bore bought into the “role” thing no matter the levity of a particular situation.
It’s maddening.
"I think that Rangers is good team." ~ South Korean Ranger Nation
by hubcityraider on Jul 18, 2011 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't see why humor should play a role in bullpen decisions...
You’d probably also assume people wouldn’t post images of dinosaurs with human penises, but I’m looking for anything I can use to put a fighting robot together! -Closure GT, 7/5/11
by colonialbob on Jul 18, 2011 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions
oof
vocabulary fail.
"I think that Rangers is good team." ~ South Korean Ranger Nation
by hubcityraider on Jul 18, 2011 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions
what "fixes it" is for your best reliever not to be your closer or at least to have a 1a
In 2009 we had Feliz as probably our best reliever for the second half of the season and given that he wasn’t the “closer” or even the “set up man” RW was free to put him into whatever high leverage situation presented itself. Although not quite identical because for some reason RW was a bit more afraid of high leverage situations with him, the situation with Ogando in the pen was somewhat similar last year. Frankie was also arguably as good as Feliz very good, during large swaths of the year.
Although it’s hard to focus on problems when you are on an 11 game winning streak, the problem to this point has been the lack of a shut down arm to deploy as needed in the bullpen without rules about how we have to use them. Unless we create some sort of artificial “only in the 8th inning in a save situation and only to start an inning” use rules for whoever we end up getting, Adams, Bell, Bailey, what have you, , I’m hoping that they will be used in a way that blunts Adam’s argument, because their taking the high leverage situations in the 8th and sometimes even the 7th will be pretty much as good as Feliz taking them himself..
It doesn't matter right now, so long as they win.
that’s just how ron washington’s gut go.
However, i completely agree with your analysis.
it’s spot on.
by Ranger miker on Jul 18, 2011 10:30 AM CDT up reply actions
My guess...
Wash doesn’t like pitching Feliz three days in a row and anticipated he couldn’t get four outs. I really didn’t expect Feliz to pitch. Yes, Oliver is warmed up and in a good situation against a lefty. And you can always bring Feliz in to finish against two right handers. It could be that Wash doesn’t trust Feliz if he inherits a runner of Oliver doesn’t get the lefty out.
I have no idea why he pitched the day before, since he probably wasn’t needed. I have come to the conclusion that I will disagree with about 1/3 of any manager’s decisions. Probably I am fairly sympathic with Wash and manufacturing runs in a game, but bullpen usuage is one area that I just can’t rationalize many of the decisions.
I agree with this
He wasn’t gonig to use Feliz to get 4 outs after pitching the back to back. Feliz is better than Oliver, so that’s why he pitched to him in the 9th . There have been tons more irrational situations then this one, this was simple IMO.
by ruben_sierra#21 on Jul 18, 2011 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions
You're assuming he would've got with Feliz in the 8th if he hadn't pitched the previous two days
I think that’s a questionable assumption.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 18, 2011 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions
You're also putting too many thought processes into Wash's head.
Had to use his 8th inning guys to get through the 8th. Once that was done it was time to go to his 9th inning guy for the 9th.
"I think that Rangers is good team." ~ South Korean Ranger Nation
by hubcityraider on Jul 18, 2011 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions
3 outs for the closer
that’s regular nowadays. whether or not it’s LOGICAL is another story.
average outs per appearance for AL leader in saves by year (random years)
1978 – 6.39
1983 – 6.04
1988 – 3.61
1990 – 3.43
1995 – 3.096
1999 – 3.13
2005 – 3.05
2011 – 2.8
this is nothing new. closers no longer pitch 2 innings…they pitch the 9th inning. it’s not a washington thing. it’s not about what’s best to win the game anymore. it’s about the closer role now. it’s become 1 inning (like 100 is the magic pitch count for starters, unless something “special” is happening..
your closer could be your only lefty that’s left in the bull pen in a 1 run game runner on 2nd in the 8th inning with a guy w/ horrible lefty splits coming up. the manager would hesitate putting the closer in.
by gossamer on Jul 18, 2011 10:38 AM CDT reply actions 2 recs
per TR Sullivan
nolan ryan has been hospitalized.
by I am Neftali Feliz on Jul 18, 2011 10:39 AM CDT reply actions
must be serious if they
took him from Georgetown to Houston
by corbsclinton on Jul 18, 2011 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions
My guess is, he didn't trust or want Oliver to pitch the entire 9th inning.
And he didn’t thing the matchup situation was critical enough to bring Oliver in just to face Ackley. Maybe Ron was tired and didn’t feel like having to walk to the mound in the middle of the inning to make a pitching chage.
Roles!
Who’s my 8th inning guy? Who’s my 9th inning guy?
It doesn’t matter what batter the pitcher is facing or the situation. All that matters is what inning it is!
Damn do I hate this way of thinking.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
there was a certain rivera-ness to feliz yesterday
that partys-over feel when he came in.
it was the last inning of what was on the verge of a being a 4 game sweep. the offense was a little tepid compared to how it had been for a few games. and so perhaps a Statement was in order for the final inning. it sure felt like one. which i think is good for the whole momentum of the team.
i think a lot of that smackdown would have been lost if either feliz came on to bail out middle relief in the 8th or there was a bunch of histrionics and maddox in the 9th. as it was, it was; last inning-bring your beast in-end this thing-we outta here!
may not look got by the numbers, but maybe wash was working the team mojo.
by DaveHostetlersLoveChild on Jul 18, 2011 11:00 AM CDT reply actions
Platoon advantage vs. Ackley....SSS....but doesn't exist currently
Vs. LHP: 1.123 OPS this year
Vs RHP: 707 OPS this year
(Majors)
(Minors)
Vs. LHP: 960 OPS
Vs. RHP 887 OPS
That's surprising to me seeing how he appears to "step in the bucket" when he swings it.
You’d think lefties would eat his ass up.
ROCK AND FIRE, GIVE ME A LIL BINGO KID!
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
so
would you use your best reliever in the highest of leverage situations no matter what inning it is?
Wash didn't want to bring Feliz into a pressure situation because he is mentally weak.
uh oh…
- sports are fun. -
There was no guarantee that Oliver, or Rhodes who was warming before the 9th, would have come in even if things went differently
You have to remember these guys haven’t pitched in quite some time with the ASB and then the back to back games by Holland and Colby and now the off day today. Its possible they were just as much throwing to get some work in as they were throwing to warm to come in the game.
So
Oliver, the 8th inning guy, just happened to be warming up in the 8th inning with a lefty due up next because he was getting work in, rather than because he was getting ready to come in the game if Lowe didn’t retire Gutierrez?
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 18, 2011 11:36 AM CDT up reply actions
its a good thing Seattle didn't tie up the score
And then Oliver isn’t available for extra innings because he was “getting work in” with the tying run at the plate in the 8th.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 18, 2011 11:36 AM CDT up reply actions
Its entirely possible he was warming up to come in to the game
I think he was doing both actually and once Lowe got out of the jam Olivers work was done and he sat down. Rhodes got up alongside Feliz to both warm up and get some work in. If we had scored a couple runs and made it a non-save situation then Rhodes probably comes in.
I just think with this past series along with the schedule of late there were other factors in how things were managed and who was warming when
Nothing About Washington's Bullpen Management Makes Sense
RW loses at least 5 games a year due to lousy bullpen management. He is not alone, this everybody has a set role, you can’t bring a closer in unless it’s a closing save situation and you can only use your closer to get three in the ninth are all crazy.
Urite. It's really smart...
for all the managers to be equally dumb with bullpen management. That way none of them have to use their brain, but it has no bearing on job security since everybody else does the exact same thing.
"I think that Rangers is good team." ~ South Korean Ranger Nation
by hubcityraider on Jul 18, 2011 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions
Some new young manager will break the bullpen usage mold by introducing the Fireman.
The Fireman will be the guy that snuffs out the high leverage situation, whether it’s in the 6th or the 8th. The closer will still get those last 3 magical outs in the 9th.
The inertia of baseball tradition mandates keeping the closer role for the near future.
Good luck convincing your relievers to get on board
Saves = $$$.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011, in response to me saying I would rather face the Thunder than the Grizzlies in the WCF.
That's why it has to be a situation
with an “established closer” in place who actually isn’t your best bullpen arm.
"I think that Rangers is good team." ~ South Korean Ranger Nation
by hubcityraider on Jul 18, 2011 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions
did K-Rod fireman it for the Angels WS title?
"I think that Rangers is good team." ~ South Korean Ranger Nation
by hubcityraider on Jul 18, 2011 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions
And then the fireman will come in and put out a fire in the 7th
And the closer will blow the game in the 9th, and the manager will get ripped for not using his best reliever in the 9th.
And then the fireman will get hurt, and the manager will be blamed for injuring him for using him in an unconventional way.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 18, 2011 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions
indubitably
"I think that Rangers is good team." ~ South Korean Ranger Nation
by hubcityraider on Jul 18, 2011 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions
That made my head spin.
Washington would not get ripped for using Feliz in the 9th. He’s the closer.
Your Fireman is another closer-quality reliever. Heath Bell. Mike Adams.
but what about when the 9th IS the high leverage situation...
and you have both your fireman and your closer available. If, in your scenario, the fireman is equal to or worse than your closer then all you’re doing is advocating a manager using a set-up man in innings other than the 8th. Which happens plenty.
If your Fireman is better than your “designated closer” then the fireman better also be available for high leverage saves in the 9th.
"I think that Rangers is good team." ~ South Korean Ranger Nation
by hubcityraider on Jul 18, 2011 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions
It's just a partial change of mindset until common sensefinally is acknowledged.
Managers are conditioned to think of the closer (and possibly the set-up men) as ways to turn 9-inning games into 8 or 7-inning games.
The Fireman+Closer approach isn’t that linear. It still turns it into an 8 inning game, but it also now pressures the opponent to create more than one high leverage situation before they get to the 9th, because the Fireman will shut it down in the mid-to-late (non-9th) innings.
Which isn't to say this shouldn't, or might not, happen
That’s the pushback that I think would occur that is part of the reason people are hesitant.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 18, 2011 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions
Agreed.
My point was that instead of trying to convince people about the benefit of using your closer in non-traditional situations, create a new role that serves the same purpose.
10 years from now the light bulb will go on for the common fan and the general media about using the closer in these high leverage situations.
And as a new manager
It is very difficult to earn slack, so if you insist on this decision and it fails a few times early… you’re in trouble
Reintroduction
That’s the way they used to do it, I believe.
I can sort of understand the manager’s point of view, in a way. You have two dominant pitchers, you have the ability to effectively make it a seven inning game. But I think you’d win more if you had one dominant guy who pitched the 9th and another who may come in with one out and the bases loaded in the seventh or even the sixth.
by Black Francis on Jul 18, 2011 12:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Joe Sheehan's Take
I tweeted Sheehan to ask about what it would take for a manger to best utilize his bullpen. He said it would take a guy who is fearless about getting fired to use his bullpen in an “unconventional” way. If Sheehan is correct, we might be waiting longer than we think necessary for this change to happen.
by Excel Hearts Choi on Jul 18, 2011 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions
I front office can help alleviate fears of him being fired by not firing him for doing the right thing.
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
wasn't that Feliz's job in 2009?
I sometimes think when a long time closer stays in their role although it is obvious that they young gun behind him is better, at least a bit of the motivation is tha you can use the young gun as the “fireman”.
Warm Up Time
Don’t you have to consider the time it takes to warm up?
I mean, anyone can bounce off the bench and pinch hit with 10 seconds notice. But you can’t come in to pitch without properly warming up. And that includes stretching before starting to throw.
I just don’t think the high leverage situations can be predicted enough in advance to use your best pitcher in the highest-leverage situation. You need more than one or two batters to warm up. I really think that is why those guys in the pen have roles. They know to be ready to come in for the 7th or 8th, and they start stretching an inning earlier.
To me, the only question from yesterday is Feliz v Oliver to start the 9th. I probably would have let Oliver come in to face Ackley, and then finish the game. From Wash’s point of view, though, he was going to have to have Feliz start getting ready before the Ackley at bat either way (so he could be ready in case Oliver got into trouble) so in his mind he probably just thought he might as well bring in Feliz and get it over with.
"There's no money in triples!" -- C.J. Wilson, 2010
by Oddibee on Jul 18, 2011 12:08 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
this is a pretty valid point.
"I think that Rangers is good team." ~ South Korean Ranger Nation
by hubcityraider on Jul 18, 2011 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions
This is the most valid defense for roles
It allows the players to be both physically and mentally prepared.
by JoseTres on Jul 18, 2011 1:00 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Best argument I've seen it - Rec
If you get Feliz ready for a suspected high leverage situation, and it turns out not to be, then you are potentially using Feliz where he is not as useful in the next inning (against a bottom of the lineup, perhaps)
The gut says...
know your roles.
Logic does not apply.
Expectation is the root of all heartache. — William Shakespeare
by TheDutchOven on Jul 18, 2011 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions
Does there need to be a winner and a loser?
You’d probably also assume people wouldn’t post images of dinosaurs with human penises, but I’m looking for anything I can use to put a fighting robot together! -Closure GT, 7/5/11
only if we win
for example,
Teixeira trade: win
O’Day theft: win
Gagne trade: win
Danks trade: does there really need to be a winner here?
Otsuka for Gonzalez trade: this whole business of “winners” and “losers” is just so unamerican.
Cruz trade: win!
Napoli trade: win!
lol
Why don't you have a nice big cup of shut the fuck up? - Lisa W 3/4/2011
JD's top trade partners:
1) Boston and Philly (5 transactions)
2) Royals, A’s (4 transactions)
3) Tigers, Brewers, Yankees, Blue Jays (3 transactions)
Never made any transactions with:
LAA (no transactions since 1997)
LAD (no transactions since 1990)
Cardinals (no transactions since 2003)
Rays (never)
1 or 2 transactions each with all remaining teams during JD’s time as a GM so far.
Time to take the Dodgers off that list.
Kershaw ahoy!
You’d probably also assume people wouldn’t post images of dinosaurs with human penises, but I’m looking for anything I can use to put a fighting robot together! -Closure GT, 7/5/11
might as well just say
hey, that Madison Bumgardner kid is pretty good, lets go trade for him. after all, he’s only the number 3 starter at best for the Giants.
Why don't you have a nice big cup of shut the fuck up? - Lisa W 3/4/2011
Sure!
Sounds good. Kershaw, CJ, Bumgardner, Ogando, Feliz rotation next year. Boom.
You’d probably also assume people wouldn’t post images of dinosaurs with human penises, but I’m looking for anything I can use to put a fighting robot together! -Closure GT, 7/5/11
interesting numbers
Mark Cuban has talked about how certain teams simply aren’t at the table to negotiate with due to their front offices being of Spurs family tree lineage.
Wonder if there’s a specific reason for not dealing with LAD, Tampa, or Stl.
"I think that Rangers is good team." ~ South Korean Ranger Nation
by hubcityraider on Jul 18, 2011 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions
It's worth pointing out that this year however, Mark Lowe has been better than Feliz has.
Better strikeout and swinging strike rates, much better walk rate, and a comparable HR rate.
Interestingly enough Lowe’s average fastball velocity has even been a MPH faster than Feliz’s this year, although velocity doesn’t necessarily equal effectiveness.
In the long run, I’d agree that Feliz is probably the better pitcher, but as erratic as he’s been this year, and as good as Mark Lowe has been at late, I don’t think Lowe being brought in over Feliz in high leverage situations is something to complain about.
I actually might put Feliz behind both Lowe and Oliver right now, so by having Feliz stuck in the traditional in the closer role, Ron and Maddux might be managing the bullpen the right way – albeit via the wrong intentions.
Don't poke the alien.
Closer vs Fireman
Today’s closers generally lack the mental makeup of a true fireman. Coming in with men on and the game on the line is a lot more pressure than starting an inning fresh.
Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.
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