FanPost

2011 Community Projections - August Update [Scoring Method Changed]

The season is now 5/6ths complete! Only 27 games to go in the regular season  As a reminder, I will be donating a Nellie Cruz bobble head from the 6/20 promotion against the Astros to the overall winner of the projections (or second place if the LSB Average wins).

NOTE: The scoring method has changed!

Initially I used a basic RMSE method. I was taking each projected value and comparing it to the actual results and determining a percentage difference. After making all the comparisons I would average everything together to come up with a final score.

However, as the season progressed, it became obvious that Julio Borbon and Tommy Hunter were skewing the results. Everyone was off massively on those two players and it came down to who had the best projection on those players alone. If everyone is within 5% on Elvis but mix in the best Borbon as 250% off compared to 600% off, Borbon would dominate the average.

To compensate... each player projection now has an individual score associated with it. The person who makes the best projection on a player gets 100 points. The worst projection receives 0 points. You also receive 0 points for any player you did not make a projection for. This now allows for the leaderboards to include people who only made some projections but not all projections.

So while best gets 100 points, worst gets 0 points... everyone in between gets a weighted value based on how close to the best or worse you were. If you are within 98% of the best projection, you get 98 points. It is not linear... you could have 10 people all get 99 points if they all were that close to the best projection.

With this new method there is a possible 1500 total points. 1100 for the position players and 400 for the pitchers. I removed Tommy Hunter from the scoring entirely since he played so little... every projection was pretty much worthless.

Our new overall leader is seanathan with an amazing 1103.54 points out of 1500. I say amazing because he never made a Michael Young projection and received a 0 for him. So his 1103.54 is actually out of 1400 points based on the projections he made.

In the Google Spreadsheets linked below, commenters who made all projections have a score in green... if you failed to make at least one projection your score is in pink. The "Percent" next to your score is the percentage of possible points you received based on how many projections you actually made.

Position player projection data has been tabulated in this Google Spreadsheet - Batters.

Pitcher projection data has been tabulated in this Google Spreadsheet - Pitchers.

The overall leaderboard can be found in this Google Spreadsheet - Leaderboard.

Here are the top 3 and bottom 3 projections [bottom 3 only includes those who made all 15 projections] as well as the LSB Average, ZiPS & Marcel.  Individual player ranks can be found in the respective spreadsheets.

Overall Combined   All Position Players   All Pitchers
RankCommenterPoints
1 seanathan 1103.54
2 todmod
1095.05
3 t ball
1083.33
...
6 LSB Average
1061.66
12 ZiPS
1027.96
23 Snark (Marcel)
976.93
...
48 MikeEl 787.78
52 Mark from OC 763.29
59 JBImaknee 727.31
 
RankCommenterPoints
1 Telegraph
843.85
2 ab03 773.28
3 Dirk Diggler 773.01
...
13 LSB Average
728.23
15 ZiPS 716.77
25 Snark (Marcel)
697.02
...
67 MikeEl
512.98
70 JBImaknee 503.97
72 Mark from OC
496.96
 
RankCommenterPoints
1 seanathan
369.98
2 philkid3
354.99
3 t ball
347.56
...
8 LSB Average
333.43
19 ZiPS 311.19
39 Snark (Marcel) 279.91
...
51 JBImaknee 223.34
52 jdh90
219.10
53 erudy 209.31
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