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Around SBN: NFL Safety Ryan Clark's Motivational Workout

Tuesday Morning Rangers Update

I don't want these dudes to leave

Good Morning.

Anthony Andro writes about the Rangers breaking off contract extension talks with Derek Holland for now. Holland is under team control for the next four seasons but the Rangers were hoping to leverage this final year of Holland not being eligible for arbitration to buy out a year or two of free agency. With the Rangers also shelving extension talks with Mike Napoli, the plan of locking up the team's core players long term hasn't come to fruition as of yet this off season.

Richard Durrett has some quotes from Darren Oliver about the Rangers after officially signing with the Toronto Blue Jays. Oliver seems pretty surprised that he isn't going to be a Ranger.

Durrett updates where the Rangers might pick in the draft now that they will receive a supplemental first round selection for losing Oliver. The order of these picks are subject to change as other players sign, however.

Gerry Fraley was on SportsDay On Air to complain about Josh Hamilton's new Accountability Partner because he thinks someone on the team will want their brother to be a personal masseuse now.

MLB.com's Lyle Spencer has a piece about the keystone battle between Ian Kinsler and Howie Kendrick in the AL West.

Finally, T.R. Sullivan has a piece on how former Rangers fared on the Hall of Fame ballot. Rafael Palmeiro received 12.6% of the vote and will linger at least another year. Juan Gonzalez drops off the ballot now after failing to reach the required 5%. And, Ruben Sierra didn't receive a single vote. Some day Pudge will go into the Hall as a Ranger.

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Having your brother as your personal masseuse sounds like the creepiest thing ever

Look, this is a bad time to buy cocaine anyway. With the market how it is, it is better to rent cocaine.

by LSJ on Jan 10, 2012 8:15 AM CST reply actions  

Yeah, I'm not so sure where Fraley's head is on that one

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Jan 10, 2012 8:17 AM CST up reply actions  

Unless Gerry Fraley is telling us he's the kind of person who would bring his brother along as his personal masseuse

Look, this is a bad time to buy cocaine anyway. With the market how it is, it is better to rent cocaine.

by LSJ on Jan 10, 2012 8:21 AM CST up reply actions  

I think that's what he's trying to tell us

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Jan 10, 2012 8:28 AM CST up reply actions  

heh exactly this

NO This is why i dont come here so much anymore. it has become a destination for certain types which i am not. Love the rangers, not this -- Mark from OC on Arrested Development

Justin Verlander? I piss on Justin Verlander --AJM

by shock00 on Jan 10, 2012 8:42 AM CST up reply actions  

Ugh...

I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)

by Gay For Feliz on Jan 10, 2012 8:57 AM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Nah...

that has to be (if you’re a woman) having your father as your gynecologist.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Jan 10, 2012 11:03 AM CST up reply actions  

As opposed to being a man and having your father as your gynecologist.

Which may, in fact, be weirder.

"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs

by JDT217 on Jan 10, 2012 11:14 AM CST up reply actions  

I recently heard of somebody who went to her father for this.

shudders

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:15 AM CST up reply actions  

Ugh...

I’m sure there are a few out there that do that, but just the thought of it is really really disgusting.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Jan 10, 2012 11:17 AM CST up reply actions  

Yeah, and she's like 21 or some such.

So it’s not like she’s a kid…

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:18 AM CST up reply actions  

So

she’s waiting to be sacrificed so that the seas will calm?

by Requiem on Jan 10, 2012 2:58 PM CST up reply actions  

Well, it's a complex story

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Jan 10, 2012 6:11 PM CST up reply actions  

I love the Oresteia so much. Such a great trilogy.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Jan 10, 2012 7:42 PM CST up reply actions  

.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 7:52 PM CST up reply actions  

I always love that throway line

in History of the World, Part I, “Oedipus…”

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Jan 10, 2012 9:39 PM CST up reply actions  

HEEEEEYYYYY, Josephus!

Heeey, motherfucker!

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 9:56 PM CST up reply actions  

Well...

My Uncle (Dad’s brother) was my Mom’s OB/GYN when I was born.

"A lot of people may not know this, but I happen to be quite famous." - Sam "MayDay" Malone

by SoWasRed on Jan 10, 2012 11:46 AM CST up reply actions  

This seems less weird.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:53 AM CST up reply actions  

It is less weird but weird nonetheless

"A lot of people may not know this, but I happen to be quite famous." - Sam "MayDay" Malone

by SoWasRed on Jan 10, 2012 11:56 AM CST up reply actions  

So did your dad ask his brother how his wife's vagina is doing every now and then?

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Jan 10, 2012 12:15 PM CST up reply actions   2 recs

I don't know

I’ll ask him the next time I talk to him.

"A lot of people may not know this, but I happen to be quite famous." - Sam "MayDay" Malone

by SoWasRed on Jan 10, 2012 1:07 PM CST up reply actions  

It's not creepy if there's a happy ending to the story

Football can go to hell. The Rangers aren't ready for football season and neither am I.

by WyoRanger on Jan 10, 2012 1:48 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Meloveyoulong----DAD, WTF?!?!?!

We’re not about sending messages. We’re about winning ballgames.-Wash, 04/03/11
Hell to the fucking no. -Wash, 10/07/11

by Rodney on Jan 10, 2012 1:50 PM CST up reply actions  

With each

it seems like you’re kind of hoping that they’re particularly receptive to it. Opting for extensions one year off and four years off are both really up to the player. In Holland’s case, you’re hoping to get a pretty considerable discount of some FA years or at least the arb years in exchange for some security. Well… does Holland strike you as someone who is really worried about how stable his income is going to be?

And for Napoli, if he wants to be a free agent one year off, there is little to do beyond just extend him at market value for a long time. Which defeats the purpose of the extension. It is hard to get a discount either in $ or years with a guy one year away.

Go Rice Owls!
Would be a Matt Harrison fan, but I only like superstars

by JBImaknee on Jan 10, 2012 8:29 AM CST up reply actions  

He already makes enough to buy all of the funny graphic tees he can dream of...

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 10:41 AM CST up reply actions  

I don't even want to think about it.

PRE-NUP DUTCH PRE-NUP

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:15 AM CST up reply actions  

I blame C.J. Wilson.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 10:57 AM CST up reply actions  

I don't think its a big deal with Holland, plenty of time before he can hit FA

With Napoli, I would have liked to see a deal get done, but clearly he’s looking for a FA type deal to extend with the Rangers and there’s just no point in giving it to him before this season. The price likely won’t be going up much, so they might as well just try and re-sign him next offseason.

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Jan 10, 2012 8:29 AM CST up reply actions  

yeah

with Napoli, when you think about it, the scenarios are for him to be so awesome in 2012 that we can’t afford him or for him to be good enough for us to want to re-sign him but such that his value comes down a bit. I don’t think there is a zone where he prices himself out of being a Ranger while disappointing us with his performance… no lose situation with him.

Go Rice Owls!
Would be a Matt Harrison fan, but I only like superstars

by JBImaknee on Jan 10, 2012 8:32 AM CST up reply actions  

Yep.

I can only see the price/performance for him going down from here on out. However, I would love to see Napoli fucking rake out of his mind this year to prove me wrong.

- sigh -

by b.pate on Jan 10, 2012 11:16 AM CST up reply actions  

I have heard

That the Rangers front office is solely concentrating on Darvish right now, and once that’s done, extension talks should resume.

by Lo'Ranger(s)714 on Jan 10, 2012 10:33 AM CST up reply actions  

Pretty frustrating...

that the Rangers can’t seem to get some of the things done this offseason that they’d like to. I’m not sure how far apart they are on extensions with guys like Napoli, Kinsler, and Holland, but it would be nice to see something happen on that front other than just talking about it.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Jan 10, 2012 8:26 AM CST reply actions  

Maybe the agents are telling their players to hold out.

This is a rich franchise, maybe the price will creep up.

Naps makes sense being so close to FA and all, but I’d imagine the Rangers came to Holland with what they perceived as a lowball offer, same with Kins.

"...out of the shadows of unprecedented success, the sun shines down upon this team waiting to thrill anew." - ghostofErikThompson

by jam0152 on Jan 10, 2012 8:28 AM CST up reply actions  

It just depends where players are at in their lives.

Do they want to take on the long-term risk for the potential reward?

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 10:44 AM CST up reply actions  

I'd rather hear about talks being table

than hear about huge extensions to multiple players for too much money.

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Jan 10, 2012 12:17 PM CST up reply actions  

I'd like to have a situation

where we get a “good deal” contract for our team. it seems so rare for us.

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.

by NothinG on Jan 10, 2012 8:28 AM CST via Android app reply actions  

It takes two to tango.

Players have to want to do it too.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 10, 2012 8:29 AM CST up reply actions  

I know

that’s what is frustrating. I don’t know what is being offered behind closed doors, but you’d think that the players would want to play here partly given that we are back to back AL champs. this isn’t the same old Texas Rangers that are used to losing.

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.

by NothinG on Jan 10, 2012 8:33 AM CST via Android app up reply actions  

They can want to play here and still want to get paid

and with a guy like Holland or Kinsler, you’ve got some more time before they have a chance to leave (especially Holland).

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Jan 10, 2012 8:37 AM CST up reply actions  

We just don't have any charitable guys like Jered Weaver on the roster

"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs

by JDT217 on Jan 10, 2012 9:24 AM CST up reply actions  

I didn't think the Weaver extension was supposed to be 'charitable' on this part

The story I read said that the org went to him and said they were going to trade him if he didn’t sign a long term deal, and he didn’t want to leave Southern Cal …

by CO Ranger on Jan 10, 2012 9:33 AM CST up reply actions  

Meh.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 10:46 AM CST up reply actions  

No, not really.

I mean, not in the aggressive tone I originally read it as. Maybe in a ‘shrugged shoulder sorry there’s nothing we can do’ sort of way.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:33 AM CST up reply actions  

If it was aggressive.

It was a very ballsy move. Risking alienating your ace in the middle of a pennant race to force him to sign an extension is a real gamble.

"Calmer than you are dude"

by Arlington Stadium Legend on Jan 10, 2012 11:35 AM CST up reply actions  

Yeah,

that’s why I don’t really buy it.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:36 AM CST up reply actions  

well, we're still benefitiing from Kinsler's great extension at least

Go Rice Owls!
Would be a Matt Harrison fan, but I only like superstars

by JBImaknee on Jan 10, 2012 8:30 AM CST up reply actions  

Colby Lewis, Ian Kinsler?

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 10:45 AM CST up reply actions  

no doubt

and whatever they are paying Daniels right now is almost certainly good bang for the buck.

Rangers fans should not forget the incredible amount of value/production the team has gotten from young, cheap players the last couple of years. This, to me, is FAR more important than signing any of these players to team -friendly contracts (something that happens rarely for any team).

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Jan 10, 2012 12:20 PM CST up reply actions  

Yep.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 12:25 PM CST up reply actions  

x

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/1/10/2695317/prince-fielder-rumors-free-agent-propaganda

Look, this is a bad time to buy cocaine anyway. With the market how it is, it is better to rent cocaine.

by LSJ on Jan 10, 2012 8:33 AM CST reply actions  

That is brilliant....

"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski

by GhostofSteveFoucault on Jan 10, 2012 8:50 AM CST up reply actions  

Nice

"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs

by JDT217 on Jan 10, 2012 9:25 AM CST up reply actions  

I'm sold

Run him out of the game.

At least I get to see the Rangers when they play the Twins now.

by TargetField on Jan 10, 2012 9:42 AM CST up reply actions  

Something tells me

all of his throws look like that

by ab03 on Jan 10, 2012 9:45 AM CST up reply actions  

We saw this, right?

Nadel honored as Texas Sportscaster of the Year

"...out of the shadows of unprecedented success, the sun shines down upon this team waiting to thrill anew." - ghostofErikThompson

by jam0152 on Jan 10, 2012 8:34 AM CST reply actions   1 recs

Good on Darren...

4+ million is a LOT of money, doubt Rangers were close to that. He got an offer that made the decision for him, sounds like.

by bhudson on Jan 10, 2012 8:34 AM CST reply actions  

WTF is up with our FO?

For contract talks to completely break down at this point in the offseason the two sides have to be really far apart.

Given the huge amount of data we have on what a contract for Holland should look like, unless his agent is Josey I have to believe its the FO side that is the one who is being unreasonable. The Napoli one I could shrug off as a guy one year from FA and wanting to be blown away but now I am starting to wonder if our Fo almost expects players to take less money to stay here.

by bigsteve on Jan 10, 2012 8:35 AM CST reply actions  

You are making some bad assumptions.

You have no idea what we offered or they asked for… don’t assume our front office is the one dropping the ball just for the sake of it. Unless you have an axe to grind with our front office… if so, carry on.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 10, 2012 8:37 AM CST up reply actions  

Why do you believe contract talks broke off?

Do you believe both Napoli and Holland were being so unreasonable that the club broke off talks?

With Napoli that could very easily be the case if his agent is trying to cash in on his amazing 2011.

But with Holland I dont see how negotiations can fall apart this quickly and with this much time until spring training starts unless they are so far apart there is no hope. And given the amount of similar aged/service time pitchers who signed deals recently I have to believe his agent didn’t go in there asking for some absurd amount.

But our FO does not have a great recent track record of pre-FA extensions. Other than Kinsler we haven’t gotten deals done with our young players in quite some time. Thats why I am leaning toward them being the one who was the reason for talks to stop right now

by bigsteve on Jan 10, 2012 9:24 AM CST up reply actions  

So ...

You’re making an assumption based on news reports of a situation of which we have very little, real, first-hand information, and then you’re drawing conclusions based on the assumptions …

What if you just changed the initial assumption? Does the FO look as bad then?

by CO Ranger on Jan 10, 2012 9:42 AM CST up reply actions  

here's another assumption

Maybe they did want to lock up some core guys. But maybe the agents for the core guys heard this, and then they looked at the public records on just how much money the Texas owners have as well as the fact that they just ponied up $50MM for the rights to talk to a Japanese pitcher and figured that maybe they could get a few more MM out of the Rangers than the average contracts over the last few years.

Perhaps this is a case where the Rangers’ financial prowess is hurting them in individual contract negotiations, as nobody is willing to give them any discount and is in fact asking for a 10% premium …

by CO Ranger on Jan 10, 2012 10:09 AM CST up reply actions  

OK

If thats what you assume fine

I disagree but im not gonna sit here and tell you thats wrong or a bad assumption

by bigsteve on Jan 10, 2012 10:12 AM CST up reply actions  

I do my best not to make assumptions

whenever possible – but I was just doing a little hypothetical exercise to point out that we really don’t know the ‘why’

But I do agree that it’s frustrating as a fan, and you’d love to see the team work out some mutually beneficial deals with some of its core guys.

But I guess I’d be equally frustrated if they got frustrated and subsequently out-negotiated by the agents into signing long term deals that didn’t help the organization as much as they hamstrung it

by CO Ranger on Jan 10, 2012 10:15 AM CST up reply actions  

There is not enough information to draw a conclusion on why.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 10, 2012 9:48 AM CST up reply actions  

Then all we can do is assume

And its impossible for you or anyone else to say whether its a bad assumption or not given the little we actually do know.

by bigsteve on Jan 10, 2012 10:12 AM CST up reply actions  

That's ridiculous.

If you don’t have near enough information to draw a conclusion then you don’t draw a conclusion.

Making assumptions and then getting upset about it is insane.

This is like your wife or girlfriend not calling you and being home late from work and getting yourself all worked up that she’s out cheating on you because you don’t know the real reason why and you’re paranoid that she will.

Then you find out she got into a fender bender and you feel like a fucking idiot for drawing a conclusion with NO FUCKING DATA.

If you just enjoy being a paranoid… I guess have at it. I’m going to go ahead and wait before pulling out my Jump to Conclusions mat.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 10, 2012 10:16 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

OK fine

You sit by one the side and wait for definitive proof to come out about what happened in these negotiations and i’ll stay here and assume for now that its because the Rangers fucked this one up.

And your little analogy is a bit off because we have a little info regarding the Rangers inability recently to get deals done with pre-FA guys.

So for your analogy if your gf had a cheated on you in the past then I think it would be warranted to get worked up if she was out without calling. If all it was was a fender bender you can breathe a sigh of relief but I dont think it was wrong to be worried at the time.

Other than Kinsler back in 08 who have we locked up to long term deals for pre-FA guys that we were happy about? Young and Feldman everyone hated, even though the Young deal hasn’t turned out as bad as people thought. Josh didn’t give up any FA years and didn’t give a discount for cost certainty in his deal last winter. We were unable to sign CJ last winter, even though I am fine with how the FO handled that situation it was compounded by seeing him then walk this winter to a division rival for a very reasonable deal. Now Napoli and Holland talks have broken down. Elvis likely isn’t going to sign a extension being a Boras client.

We aren’t the Rays and haven’t done a ton of great team friendly deals lately to just give the FO a pass on why these latest negotiations broke down. Im one of the biggest JD fans on here so its not like I have had it out for the FO forever.

by bigsteve on Jan 10, 2012 10:25 AM CST up reply actions  

Picard.jpg

This is HF45 territory.

There’s as much evidence in the history of the game of players way overvaluing themselves as there is of the Rangers inability to get deals done.

I’d rather have a prudent front office than one that spends willy nilly.

I also want a front office that doesn’t do deals based on emotional attachment.

Prince Fielder wants 10 years and $250M. Edwin Jackson wanted 5 years and $80M. Neither will get anything close to that.

Holland and Napoli are both coming off far and away their best years… it would not surprise me in the slightest if their agents are holding out for something ridiculous.

I don’t mind saying the front office is making a mistake when I think they are. I certainly though C.J. was worth keeping at $77.5M (which we don’t know if he would accept from us). But now knowing they wanted to go all in for Darvish… I’m going to hope that the years of effort putting into scouting him will prove they are correct on his value. Several others in the industry have agreed that they think Darvish > C.J.

I need something more than “a deal didn’t get done” to turn into a jealous lover.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 10, 2012 10:36 AM CST up reply actions  

And it's not as if the Rangers are alone in making extensions offers

after players’ best seasons.

Pedroia, for example, signed his extension in late 2008, after his MVP season.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 11:06 AM CST up reply actions  

Meanie

"The fattest countries have the biggest tits" -Texas Jihad, 10-12-11

by hornedfrogs45 on Jan 10, 2012 3:27 PM CST up reply actions  

The Rangers inability to get pre-FA deals done

You have absolutely no way of knowing the reason to get those deals done and on top of that, there aren’t many players under the current regime that were good candidates to be re-signed pre-FA.

Josh hasn’t signed any sort of extension yet, but if he’s looking for Crawford/Werth money, then the reason no deal is done is because its a terrible deal for the Rangers. We couldn’t get a deal done with CJ last winter because he was basically looking for FA money without being a FA. No problem with that, but there’s no reason for the team to give him that type of deal then as opposed to waiting a year. It seems like the same situation with Napoli now.

Holland and Elvis are 4 and 3 years away from FA. There is no rush to signing either to an extension now and the sky isn’t falling because a deal hasn’t happened yet.

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Jan 10, 2012 10:38 AM CST up reply actions  

I dont think the sky is falling

Far from it

But one aspect of the FO I do believe we are not great in is this area, pre-FA deals with current players.

Maybe we are gunshy after the Feldman extension. Thats entirely possible and very reasonable. But I hope its not causing us to now severely lowball other potential extension candidates.

You are right there is no “rush” to sign Holland or Elvis. But I wasn’t the one who came out and said it was the organizations goal this winter to lock up our core guys either. Thats what the FO said and now it seems like they are going to fail on at least two guys they tried to get deals done with.

Again the Napoli deal I am fine with because its very possible he came in asking for the moon based on 1 amazing season. But the Holland deal they wont get a pass from me unless some detail does come out about Holland asking for the moon. If you, and others, dont want to get upset yet thats fine. I am.

by bigsteve on Jan 10, 2012 10:47 AM CST up reply actions  

I don't think they're gunshy because of the Feldman extension

They learned from that like they learned from other mistakes and successes. Feldman and Holland (or Wilson) are such completely different pitchers that its hard to see how there is any direct relationship between them for the FO.

The organization may have said that they would like to lock up Holland or Elvis, but I think their actual words were that they would like to try and get deals done with their core players. It may have even been one of their top goals of the offseason. It hasn’t happened yet and might not happen with any of these guys. Its not the end of the world and its something that the front office doesn’t have complete control over.

What I find funny about your posts is that you are the most upset about Holland, the guy that is under team control for 4 more years. You’re quick to blame the FO for not getting a deal done with him, but the team has no reason to pay him big bucks after one good season considering how long they control him. The Rangers can lowball him a bit now and come back next year and re-negotiate when they have to start getting into his expensive arbitration years. Right now, an extension with Holland is just icing on a Yu Darvish cake.

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Jan 10, 2012 10:54 AM CST up reply actions  

I think Holland is the much easier guy to extend

Next season Holland is pitching for a paycheck. How good he does will basically determine his paycheck for 2013. He pitches well and his arb salary likely goes up to 4-5 million. He pitches poorly and it could drop to 2 mil or so. With the other guys around the league who have signed extension in the same situation Holland currently is in I think his is the easiest one to get done.

If he pitches well and is in line for a 4-5 million dollar arb payday then the price for his extension goes up. He may then also realize that its all in his hands and he could just pitch well again for the next two years, make good money and then hit FA at 28 years old and make a killing.

by bigsteve on Jan 10, 2012 11:06 AM CST up reply actions  

The price for the extension goes up

but the confidence the team has in giving him that money goes up too.

On top of that, there is a lot of SP talent in the minors. The Rangers have no shortage of young, talented arms throughout each level of the minors. They could be perfectly content with getting another 4 good-great years from Holland and letting some other team overpay him while we replace him with someone that might be 90% as effective for 5% of the cost.

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Jan 10, 2012 11:18 AM CST up reply actions  

But wouldn't you rather have 5 years of Holland before turning to one of the prospects?

I think you should be able to get Holland for very similar to the Cahill extension that was signed. 0.5/ 3.5/ 5.5/ 7.5/ 12. Thats 5 years 29 million.

If you let Holland pitch year to year in arb and he pitches well you are probably looking at something like this. 0.5/ 4.5/ 7/ 9.5. Thats 4 years roughly 21.5 million.

The chance to have a age 28 Derek Holland for essentially 8 million dollars is worth it to make the deal now and push back needing a prospect another year

by bigsteve on Jan 10, 2012 11:32 AM CST up reply actions  

I would probably rather have 5 years of Holland

It could end up being 10 years of Holland though if they re-sign him after this contract. It might be where we only want 1 more year of Holland. What we know for a fact is that we’ll have control of Holland for 4 more years. Tacking on 1 or 2 more years for a relatively team-friendly deal would be nice, but its not an absolute necessity especially given that its practically impossible to project where Holland and the Rangers will be 4 years from now.

And we have literally no idea at all what contract Holland wants and what contract the Rangers are offering. You think we should be able to get Holland for Cahill money, but maybe Holland has no interest in Cahill money.

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Jan 10, 2012 11:37 AM CST up reply actions  

It's frustrating...

that they said that was one of their goals and they’ve now said it’s not happening with two of the main guys they’ve targeted. However there’s still plenty of time to get this done with Holland, and Napoli I think is probably looking for the moon right now.

But you’ve got to relax a little. You’ve pretty much let it be known that short of signing Fielder you’re going to treat the Rangers FO the same way a certain troll around here does. I really feel like you’re just mad about everything because Fielder’s not a Ranger right now.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Jan 10, 2012 10:58 AM CST up reply actions  

Yeah I am mad that Fielder hasn't been signed yet

And barring him signing with some other team for a ridiculous amount im going to stay pissed regardless of how Yu does.

But thats not clouding my judgement about our handling of these extensions. Given our recent history with pre-FA extensions and seeing teams all over MLB sign guys to deals while we appear to strike out makes me upset. Danks and Kemp both signed extensions with their clubs 1 year away from FA. The Angels locked up Weaver and Kendrick on top of signing Pujols and Wilson to FA deals. The Rays locked up Moore and have done so in the past with other guys. Yet we are stuck here reading reports that talks have broken down and we may re-visit them at a later time.

by bigsteve on Jan 10, 2012 11:11 AM CST up reply actions  

Well...

the Rangers were able to lock up Kinsler, Young, and Feldman. Sometimes it’s just up to the specific player. If a guy wants to hit FA there’s not much you can do to prevent that, within reason of course.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Jan 10, 2012 11:14 AM CST up reply actions  

Yeah, I think if we had guys wanting to sign a contract like Longoria's, there would be no problem

But if the guys aren’t looking to sign a huge team friendly deal, there’s not much the Rangers can do about it.

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Jan 10, 2012 11:19 AM CST up reply actions  

Who is it that you see deserved an extension and the FO didn't get it done

B/c one of the things I’ve noticed is that there aren’t a lot of guys for which this would have been an obvious decision for the club.

Elvis was still a work in progress his first 2 years. They tried with Hamilton and it didn’t work out (though I bet you are fine with that one). Nobody wants to do a long term deal with Nellie.

As for the pitchers, Holland is the only obvious one right now. And despite how good he looked at the end of the season and in the playoffs, this is still a guy who was up and down much of last season.

I don’t see a lot of swings and misses in the category you are judging the FO a failure

by CO Ranger on Jan 10, 2012 11:38 AM CST up reply actions  

Oh good grief

Why would you assume that? I mean, outside of becoming roommates with Josey?

You sit by one the side and wait for definitive proof to come out about what happened in these negotiations and i’ll stay here and assume for now that its because the Rangers fucked this one up.

You’re acting like the Rangers have been the Pirates over the past 5 years.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:03 AM CST up reply actions  

Yup. I've started skipping all bigsteve subthreads

Football can go to hell. The Rangers aren't ready for football season and neither am I.

by WyoRanger on Jan 10, 2012 2:12 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

SHE GOT IN A FENDER BENDER?!

DAMNIT. DAMNIT. DAMNIT.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 11:02 AM CST up reply actions  

At least she's got supplemental insurance?

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:03 AM CST up reply actions  

WE DON'T EVEN OWN A CAR.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 11:08 AM CST up reply actions  

I guess you better figure out

whose care she was driving. Back to square 1. Maybe she was cheating on you…

"Calmer than you are dude"

by Arlington Stadium Legend on Jan 10, 2012 11:09 AM CST up reply actions  

MAYBE IF YOU SPENT LESS TIME BREAK DANCING

AND MORE TIME WITH HER THIS WOULDN’T HAVE HAPPENED

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:10 AM CST up reply actions  

OOOOH REEALLY?

SO WHILE YOU WERE POINTING THE FEATHER, THERE WERE err MANY FEATHERS POINTED BACK AT YOURSELF…INTERESTING HOW THAT WORKS OUT, EH?

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:19 AM CST up reply actions  

I'm confused

Are you making racist comments about my Native American ancestry?

by DFWAg on Jan 10, 2012 11:20 AM CST up reply actions  

No, he's a breakdancing duck

who you’re saying is using his breakdancing skills to get all the ladies.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:24 AM CST up reply actions  

SHIT. YOU'RE PROBABLY RIGHT.

DAMNIT.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 11:13 AM CST up reply actions  

Fender is a good guy.

He doesn’t deserve a bending.

Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.

"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.

by Aqua on Jan 10, 2012 11:32 AM CST up reply actions  

Shit.

Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.

"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.

by Aqua on Jan 10, 2012 1:29 PM CST up reply actions  

Bender's ok.

It’s that Flexo character you gotta keep your eye on.

by DFWAg on Jan 10, 2012 1:30 PM CST up reply actions  

And that is saying a lot.

Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.

"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.

by Aqua on Jan 10, 2012 10:20 AM CST via mobile up reply actions  

No kidding.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 10:51 AM CST up reply actions  

"Then all we can do is assume"

Sure, you can make assumptions and guesses. You just can’t be confident enough in them that you should worry about it.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 10:56 AM CST up reply actions  

Fair point

You can make assumptions and guesses but please don’t expect anything but ridicule (or what you’ve received in this post).

by ab03 on Jan 10, 2012 11:13 AM CST up reply actions  

And thats where im going to argue because its nobodys decision what I assume or guess but mine

So just because I dont share the group think doesn’t mean it should be automatic ridicule

by bigsteve on Jan 10, 2012 11:15 AM CST up reply actions  

It's not group think

when people are not drawing a conclusion based on a lack of evidence…

by DFWAg on Jan 10, 2012 11:16 AM CST up reply actions  

Sure it should.

Summary judgments with zero evidence backing them are usually grounds for automatic ridicule.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 11:16 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

"The group think"?

Who here is making summary judgments without evidence about why the talks with Napoli and Holland broke down?

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 11:21 AM CST up reply actions  

Here's where the problem apparently is

The “group think” is that we have no clue what is happening with these negotiations so we move on.

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Jan 10, 2012 11:21 AM CST up reply actions  

HIIIVE MIND

FREE YOUR MIIIIIIINNDD

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:24 AM CST up reply actions  

Free your mind

The assumptions will follow

by CO Ranger on Jan 10, 2012 11:40 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

I don't get it

You don’t want us to tell you how to think but you want to tell us not to ridicule you?

by ab03 on Jan 10, 2012 11:18 AM CST up reply actions  

I don't have enough info to know you're right

so I have to make the assumption that you’re horribly wrong and ridicule you.

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Jan 10, 2012 12:24 PM CST up reply actions  

Who else would you have wanted them to extend?

They tried with Hamilton, but it didn’t work out. Cruz is under contract through an age where you may not want him much past that given his injury history.

I’m sure they have or will try with Elvis, but given his agent…

You want them to extend Moreland or Borbon or some such?

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 10:54 AM CST up reply actions  

They've already extended Kinsler?

Do you extend Feliz as a starter or a closer?

Harrison is the only other name I could think of and while I’m a bit surprised we here all the talk for Dutch and not for Harrison this offseason, I don’t think either of them looked like can’t miss prospects heading into 2011.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:17 AM CST up reply actions  

Kinsler is 2 years away from FA

Why could we not extend him again?

Feliz is a very tough case and one where its likely the player who wouldn’t be receptive to extensions due to the changed role.

I agree that Harrison has been undertalked about on this subject. He’ll likely make 3-4 million in arb this year and cost certainty with him would be great. Would you do a Feldman-type extension for Harrison with maybe a slight bump due to him being better than Feldman was before the deal?

Maybe 4/25 million (3/5/7/10).

by bigsteve on Jan 10, 2012 11:25 AM CST up reply actions  

Re: Kinsler

Why do we have to extend him again now? He is 2 years away from FA.

by DFWAg on Jan 10, 2012 11:27 AM CST up reply actions  

Right...

it’s not like he becomes a FA after 2012. Fretting about extending him now seems unnecessary.

by DFWAg on Jan 10, 2012 11:29 AM CST up reply actions  

Kinsler is a good candidate to extend

but you probably want to wait at least a year with Profar coming up unless Kinsler is looking to sign a team friendly deal.

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Jan 10, 2012 11:27 AM CST up reply actions  

So basically,

you are mad that they haven’t talked publicly about extending Harrison?

They have mentioned trying to do something else with Kinsler, but it isn’t as pressing as some of the other players. And, honestly, I’m ok with that. Kinsler will be 31 at the end of this contract and there are a lot of factors (shorter careers in general for 2B, how much value he gets from his defense, whether he would be as valuable as an OF) that suggest paying him for his age 32 through 34/35 seasons wouldn’t be the best idea.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:30 AM CST up reply actions  

I'm okay with letting most players in their 30's walk.

I also wonder how much the Rangers de-value offensive players based on market value because of our park.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 10, 2012 11:32 AM CST up reply actions  

Well, contrary to recent trends,

2B don’t normally hit this well. So I can see the value in keeping him…I’m just not convinced he can stick there long enough.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:34 AM CST up reply actions  

That's not necessarily directed just at Kinsler.

But perhaps the Rangers evaluations of position players in general.

I wonder if they think they can get more potential surplus value in paying FA rates for guys who under perform or actually perform their true talent rather than paying close to FA rates for existing players that out perform their true talent because of our environment.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 10, 2012 11:36 AM CST up reply actions  

It depends.

These aren’t robots and there’s something to be said for the certainty you feel with knowing your own players’ floors in this environment and that they get long well with the rest of the team, etc….but you can only value that to a point.

Another thing to think of is that this FO has shown no fear of signing older players…to one or two year deals.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:44 AM CST up reply actions  

But then there's Beltre.

He’s part of what makes me wonder this.

I don’t think you could have Beltre for 5/$80 if he had been playing all of his previous years at RBiA.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 10, 2012 11:45 AM CST up reply actions  

Maybe.

I don’t think the market has caught up to players who truly are that valuable defensively. Beltre’s defense has been pretty consistently worth $5M-10M per year. That’s absurd.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:46 AM CST up reply actions  

This is why I expect an extension for Kinsler,

unless he’s looking for a huge payoff, or the Rangers really don’t like the way he projects to age over the next 5 years.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 11:58 AM CST up reply actions  

We probably owe Seattle a lot of thanks for that

Imagine if he was playing in a neutral or hitter-friendly park in those years.

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Jan 10, 2012 11:46 AM CST up reply actions  

Logan's Run

You don’t just want to let all players over the age of 30 walk, you want to send them into some futuristic, whirling, spinny contraption that kills them and keeps everyone on the team in their 20s

by CO Ranger on Jan 10, 2012 11:44 AM CST up reply actions  

there is no sanctuary!

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Jan 10, 2012 12:25 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't think they extend Harry

I (and maybe the FO) think Harry has pretty much maxed out what he is going to be.

by RangerMad on Jan 10, 2012 11:26 AM CST up reply actions  

Yeah,

I can’t bring myself to be incredibly upset if they’ve decided that Holland is a core guy and Harrison isn’t.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:30 AM CST up reply actions  

Sigh.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 10:50 AM CST up reply actions  

?

?

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 10, 2012 10:51 AM CST up reply actions  

The logic fail.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 10:56 AM CST up reply actions  

how is it automatically the front office's fault that Holland doesn't extend?

Go Rice Owls!
Would be a Matt Harrison fan, but I only like superstars

by JBImaknee on Jan 10, 2012 8:37 AM CST up reply actions  

this is bigsteve's latest thing

Its gotten to a “Forget it, he’s rolling” level almost.

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Jan 10, 2012 8:43 AM CST up reply actions  

He is on ecstace?

At least I get to see the Rangers when they play the Twins now.

by TargetField on Jan 10, 2012 9:43 AM CST up reply actions  

no, he is assuming the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Jan 10, 2012 12:26 PM CST up reply actions  

Do you believe his agent would ask for a deal well above what other similar pitchers got recently?

Im not automatically blaming them. But their stated desire this winter was to get some of their core, pre FA players locked up and they have struck out in the first two cases.

The Napoli case I give them a pass on because its very possible he was asking for the moon based on his 1 amazing season last year.

But with Holland I believe it was the FO who probably did lowball him so much so his agent stepped out of talks. I just cant imagine based on the recent deals signed by guys like Lester, Cahill, etc that his agent would go in asking for some absurd amount.

by bigsteve on Jan 10, 2012 9:30 AM CST up reply actions  

I just don't believe w/ Holland that there is any urgency to get an extension done

and I have no clue what either side was discussing.

NO This is why i dont come here so much anymore. it has become a destination for certain types which i am not. Love the rangers, not this -- Mark from OC on Arrested Development

Justin Verlander? I piss on Justin Verlander --AJM

by shock00 on Jan 10, 2012 9:32 AM CST up reply actions  

Then the club should have created that urgency

There are plenty of examples of guys who get injured and end up making nothing compared to what they could if they stayed healthy.

Hell take Brandon McCarthy recently here. He made 2 million in his first 2 arb years combined due mostly to injury. he had a breakout year last year but still in his final arb year will likely only make 4-5 mil or so.

I cant imagine Holland turning down a guaranteed 25-30 million right now and the ability to still hit the FA market at a young age. Especially given Holland has a bit of a injury history to be mindful of

by bigsteve on Jan 10, 2012 9:42 AM CST up reply actions  

the only way to create urgency is to tell him that we're going to trade you if you don't sign an extension

I can’t imagine that Holland is unaware of the injury possibility.

NO This is why i dont come here so much anymore. it has become a destination for certain types which i am not. Love the rangers, not this -- Mark from OC on Arrested Development

Justin Verlander? I piss on Justin Verlander --AJM

by shock00 on Jan 10, 2012 9:46 AM CST up reply actions  

I can totally see Holland doing that.

Dude is goofy. I like the goofy but he is still goofy.

At least I get to see the Rangers when they play the Twins now.

by TargetField on Jan 10, 2012 9:46 AM CST up reply actions  

Maybe Holland let's his agent do the work...

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 10, 2012 9:48 AM CST up reply actions  

x
You sit by one the side and wait for definitive proof to come out about what happened in these negotiations and i’ll stay here and assume for now that its because the Rangers fucked this one up.
Im not automatically blaming them.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:03 AM CST up reply actions  

If you don't start by lowballing,

then you never even have a chance at an extension like Evan Longoria or Matt Moore.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:04 AM CST up reply actions  

I think that would have been a great starting point

I think if they offer that as a starting point then they would still be talking or a deal would have been done.

by bigsteve on Jan 10, 2012 11:28 AM CST up reply actions  

I don't at all.

That contract looks incredibly favorable to the team. The Rangers’ extensions like this are generally more player friendly than the Rays’ extensions (which make people wonder if the players are drugged when they sign it).

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:31 AM CST up reply actions  

It looks incredibly favorable now because Moore is 3 years away from arbitration and those values are now locked in for him

Holland is only 1 year away in which he probably has to pitch his ass off to get more than 3.5-4 million in arb next year. I dont think a deal starting his arb values at 3 mil is as team friendly as signing a guy 3 years away from arb to that same total.

by bigsteve on Jan 10, 2012 11:40 AM CST up reply actions  

step away from the ledge bigsteve

its ok

NO This is why i dont come here so much anymore. it has become a destination for certain types which i am not. Love the rangers, not this -- Mark from OC on Arrested Development

Justin Verlander? I piss on Justin Verlander --AJM

by shock00 on Jan 10, 2012 8:44 AM CST up reply actions  

Yup.

Called it.

Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.

"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.

by Aqua on Jan 10, 2012 11:30 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Wow.

Got it in one. Good job.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:36 AM CST up reply actions  

Someone called rotoprofessor ranks the top 15 catchers going into 2012

and puts Naps 3rd

Has this to say about Naps:

Mike Napoli is going to be the hot name entering the year, as he should be. However, you need to keep your expectations in check. For one thing, it’s not likely that he repeats a 25.4% HR/FB, nor is it likely he posts a .344 BABIP once again. He could be in store for more AB in ’12, but that doesn’t mean that the numbers are going to improve. Expect him to post similar numbers to his 2011 campaign (.320, 30 HR, 75 RBI), though with a lower average.

"...out of the shadows of unprecedented success, the sun shines down upon this team waiting to thrill anew." - ghostofErikThompson

by jam0152 on Jan 10, 2012 8:38 AM CST reply actions  

If you want a lesson in career years.

Look at our community projections for Josh Hamilton in 2011.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 10, 2012 8:40 AM CST up reply actions  

Heh, this was...not received well :

Josh Hamilton’s Luck

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 10:49 AM CST up reply actions  

BBTIA's Joe...

A true homer’s homer.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 10, 2012 10:57 AM CST up reply actions  

x
For my self, I would rather keep the best hitter in recent memory especially if he stays healthy in 2011, and who knows, maybe he will hit between .350 and .360 as well. I think he will hit at least .340 if he is healthy.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 10, 2012 10:58 AM CST up reply actions  

Uh huh...

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:00 AM CST up reply actions  

x
Good Lord help me… I cannot stand all of the stats. When I see an article like this I simply scan it for useful info and move on. I do realize there alot of guys on here that like that stuff and as a result, it’s worthwhile to write something like this from time to time… but I’m not a fan. I think Joe is right.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:01 AM CST up reply actions  

Statistics question...

What r2 values are you looking for to feel if something has a meaningful correlation?

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 10, 2012 11:06 AM CST up reply actions  

Depends what for.

When I’m writing, I try to give context to it. There’s no correlation vs suggesting some correlation vs strongly correlated.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:08 AM CST up reply actions  

And you could probably stick with r for one-on-one correlations.

R-squared tends to be used for multivariate analyses.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 11:11 AM CST up reply actions  

The r was -0.378-ish.

It seems meaningful… but I don’t really have enough background (first time ever even calculating a correlation) to give it any perspective.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 10, 2012 11:12 AM CST up reply actions  

So this is when context helps.

In my field, for the sort of things we tend to look at using correlation, that would not be considered especially high, generally.

For things that you would expected to have a lot of other stuff going on, though, that could be interesting. Certainly it’s not very, very uncorrelated.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 11:16 AM CST up reply actions  

Yep.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:17 AM CST up reply actions  

The particular evaluation

Was a single season’s worth of players with at least 400 PA and the relationship between how often the first pitch they saw was in the strike zone (using Mike Fast’s strike zone) and their OPS.

There was a much much much lower correlation of first pitch in the zone for how often they swing at the first pitch (around -0.08).

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 10, 2012 11:20 AM CST up reply actions  

So the conclusion that you're trying to draw

is that pitchers attack worse hitters early in the count more often?

Ehhh…I’m not sure. I wouldn’t expect a great correlation here given all the noise [you’re trying to guess at intent but are measuring results from an imperfect extension of that intent], but even given that I don’t know that I would feel great about that r-squared.

Have you thought about putting the hitters into buckets?

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:23 AM CST up reply actions  

The r squared was .14 and the correlation was -0.378

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 10, 2012 11:26 AM CST up reply actions  

I was joking.

R-squared can’t be negative by definition — it’s a squared term.

STATS HUMOR FTW.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 11:28 AM CST up reply actions  

It was really more a curiosity.

I was curious if pitchers threw less strikes to free swinging hitters and there was almost no correlation.

So I measured against OPS and there was more… but not necessarily significant. Though OPS had more than ISO.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 10, 2012 11:28 AM CST up reply actions  

I don't think there's NO correlation.

When I chart it you can definitely see some… I just don’t if it’s enough to be interesting.

The worst hitters absolutely got more pitches in the zone than the best.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 10, 2012 11:31 AM CST up reply actions  

Any suggestions on reading material?

I have never taken a single statistics course and know very little.

My experience is dealing with financial data and financial calculations… not statistics.

I’m very good at aggregating and organizing information. I can also get hard to get data through programming and automation… but I’m very much just getting my feet wet on this stuff.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 10, 2012 11:34 AM CST up reply actions  

Google it is then.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 10, 2012 11:43 AM CST up reply actions  

Hold on.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:44 AM CST up reply actions  

Can you e-mail me ?

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:45 AM CST up reply actions  

GBear

Keith Meister is speaking at the coaching clinic I’m going to this weekend. You wants to look at the info he gives us?

"Calmer than you are dude"

by Arlington Stadium Legend on Jan 10, 2012 11:46 AM CST up reply actions  

Oh jes.

Very muchly.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:53 AM CST up reply actions  

Topic is developing

youth and adolescent baseball players. I’ll get it to you next week.

"Calmer than you are dude"

by Arlington Stadium Legend on Jan 10, 2012 11:56 AM CST up reply actions  

Much appreciated.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:57 AM CST up reply actions  

Sorry

What I know of statistics is from the classes I took in college and I don’t remember those book names. I figured some of these other people who were at least in college more recently than me could give you better suggestions.

by ab03 on Jan 10, 2012 11:51 AM CST up reply actions  

I sent him something.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:55 AM CST up reply actions  

Thank you!

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 10, 2012 11:59 AM CST up reply actions  

laxtonto

A guy who used to post here (maybe he still does) was a Stats major that helped me greatly when I was having some issues a couple of years ago. Search for him and maybe his email is in his profile or something.

"A lot of people may not know this, but I happen to be quite famous." - Sam "MayDay" Malone

by SoWasRed on Jan 10, 2012 11:54 AM CST up reply actions  

Yeah,

he did his graduate work in statistics and global warming, I believe. Also a Longhorn, so check the CFB threads.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:55 AM CST up reply actions  

Heh.

I think laxtonto as that guy who posts hot chicks and likes Lacrosse.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 10, 2012 11:56 AM CST up reply actions  

He could test the last statement he made.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:35 AM CST up reply actions  

Right

which is essentially what you suggested.

I just meant the part about “seeing some” correlation.

by ab03 on Jan 10, 2012 11:36 AM CST up reply actions  

Actually, never mind

that’s not what you suggested.

Yeah, he could test that.

by ab03 on Jan 10, 2012 11:37 AM CST up reply actions  

Yes, to that last sentence.

This is a pet peeve of mine that happens during our lab meetings with new grad students. They put up data, show a bar graph with error bars showing no significant difference, but then the student says something like ‘even though the difference isn’t significant, there is a difference there so…’

No, there is no difference. If the difference is contained within your error bars, then your ability to measure is not great enough to say those two are different. You may notice a consistent trend and think that further testing would show them to be different, but further testing may reveal your initial results to be be slightly off and the two bars to be exactly the same.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:42 AM CST up reply actions  

These are actually different statements:
No, there is no difference.

If the difference is contained within your error bars, then your ability to measure is not great enough to say those two are different.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 12:00 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah, that was a bit over the top.

But I find it helps in countering the assumption that every future experiment will reveal exactly the same data…or worse, reveal data that fits even more in line with what we think should happen. If it’s in the error bars, it’s just as likely to go the other way.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 12:02 PM CST up reply actions  

Well, the problem is,

that it’s not just a power problem. Maybe the experiment was under-powered, which is why you didn’t find statistically significant results. On the other hand, maybe there wasn’t a statistically significant difference to be detected.

One of my pet peeves, by the way, is the way that even people trained in stats misinterpret p-values.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 12:06 PM CST up reply actions  

Yes,

though JBI and I both feel that the issue of power is one that gets abused in modern scientific research.

What is your personal p-value pet peeve?

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 12:09 PM CST up reply actions  

Power gets abused how?

On p-value: it often gets interpreted as the probability that the null hypothesis is incorrect. For example, “This result has a p-value of less than 0.05 — a statistically significant result, which means that there is at least a 95 percent probability that the null hypothesis does not hold.”

That is not correct.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 12:16 PM CST up reply actions  

Increase the data points

[in a very costly way] to show that a small difference is significant and then make broad generalizations and directives based off of it. I think the Bayesians might be onto something…

Ah, yes, I see what you mean.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 12:24 PM CST up reply actions  

Sub-thread convergence.

They Bayes factor is a potential alternative to the p-value fallacy. (So are confidence intervals, but they suffer from similar inferential problems.)

I agree with you about power in this regard, except that now it’s much loss costly to increase power. Which creates an opposite set of issues: over-powered studies, and data-mining, and such.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 12:27 PM CST up reply actions  

Depends on the field.

In patient-driven data…

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 12:37 PM CST up reply actions  

True.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 12:59 PM CST up reply actions  

im bummed i missed this discussion

Go Rice Owls!
Would be a Matt Harrison fan, but I only like superstars

by JBImaknee on Jan 10, 2012 6:04 PM CST via Android app up reply actions  

Without knowing how to test.

One of the things that stood out as outliers were Aubrey Huff and Mike Napoli.

But both of them were far off their career numbers… Napoli saw way more pitches in the zone than the other high OPS players… and Aubrey saw way fewer than the worst hitters.

I think there’s probably some truth to what ASL mentions… that pitchers are more likely to attack hitters they perceive as weak compared to hitters they perceive as strong.

I think part of the noise is using a single season’s OPS as the method of evaluating a player.

Also plenty of other things like the count, men on base, how that pitcher does versus whatever handed version the batter is, leverage of the situation, etc.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 10, 2012 11:42 AM CST up reply actions  

First pitch, right?

So count shouldn’t matter.

But I would imagine leverage, platoon, and that sort of stuff do.

And while I agree about both a one-year sample and OPS, I’m not sure I’d bet on your finding higher correlation with a longitudinal sample and using, say, linear weights.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 12:02 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah,

suggesting using wOBA over OPS was one of my first thoughts, but I’m not sure it would make a difference…the noise here may be higher than the gain in measurement of hitting ability.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 12:03 PM CST up reply actions  

Couldn't hurt to try,

but I’d guess that no matter what happens, this is an area in which adjusting for confounders (and looking more closely at the causal model) would be important.

What happens, for example, if you look at a game in which it’s the top of the ninth inning in a 10-0 ballgame, with the home team winning, and the away-team equivalent of Josh Hamilton steps to the plate — versus what happens if it’s 1-1 in the same situation?

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 12:10 PM CST up reply actions  

I would.

Pitchers are taught from an early age to attack the bottom third of the order. That is where you keep your pitch count down and get quick innings etc.

"Calmer than you are dude"

by Arlington Stadium Legend on Jan 10, 2012 11:30 AM CST up reply actions  

Good Lord help me...

"...out of the shadows of unprecedented success, the sun shines down upon this team waiting to thrill anew." - ghostofErikThompson

by jam0152 on Jan 10, 2012 11:12 AM CST up reply actions  

just thinking 'out loud' here

So if you take .45 points from his batting average, and you decrease his HR/FB numbers back down to a still nice 20%, then Naps would be something along the lines of a a .275/.350/.525 hitter who spends most of his time at Catcher, but probably not more than 100 games, and will get the rest of his AB’s at DH and 1B. He’s never had more than 450 AB’s, so I don’t think you can project him to have more than 550 going forward.

How much do you offer a guy like that?
I think it’s pretty obvious why a long term deal hasn’t gotten done between Naps and Texas.

by CO Ranger on Jan 10, 2012 9:50 AM CST up reply actions  

It's not just that.

Catchers don’t particularly age well, either, so you’re having to come up with the nebulous projection of how much time he’ll actually spend at catcher over the next 3-4 years.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 10:51 AM CST up reply actions  

That too

It’s not hard to see how a FO and an agent would be miles apart on contract parameters for a player like this

by CO Ranger on Jan 10, 2012 12:22 PM CST up reply actions  

I just have to say it feels really odd and kind of wrong

that Barry Larkin is a HOFer and Jeff Bagwell and Rafael Palmeiro are not. Nothing against Larkin…

Go Rice Owls!
Would be a Matt Harrison fan, but I only like superstars

by JBImaknee on Jan 10, 2012 8:42 AM CST reply actions  

Eh.

I always thought Barry Larkin was phenomenal… and I understand a bit on Bagwell.

But personally… I never felt Raffy was a HOF. This doesn’t mean he wasn’t good enough for that… just that watching almost his whole career… I never had that HOF gut feeling. Probably because I thought he was a poor man’s Mark Grace for his first several years here… and even his monster seasons after that never really made feel much different.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 10, 2012 8:45 AM CST up reply actions  

Larkin just strikes me as the same as Trammell and Whitaker

but playing in a slightly more offensive era. I would say all three should be in, but it is odd for one to be in, one to be completely out, and one to be in purgatory.

Go Rice Owls!
Would be a Matt Harrison fan, but I only like superstars

by JBImaknee on Jan 10, 2012 8:53 AM CST up reply actions  

I think Larkin benefits from all the subjective aspects of the voting process

And Raffy for sure gets downgraded significantly by those same factors.

As for Trammel and Whitaker, their downgrades are less obvious, and I am similarly confused that they don’t get more recognition. Maybe being on a regular, nightly, national television broadcast about baseball has helped Larkin stay in people’s minds better.

by CO Ranger on Jan 10, 2012 9:52 AM CST up reply actions  

I asked in in the HoF thread

But can someone explain to me why Whitaker is seen as just the same as Trammell/Larkin? His career WAR is great, but it seems like he had a very different peak value (instead was a remarkably solid player for 15 years).

I don’t see how he was good enough at his best for the Hall.

by todmod on Jan 10, 2012 12:32 PM CST up reply actions  

3000 hits and 500 HR isn't enough?

At least I get to see the Rangers when they play the Twins now.

by TargetField on Jan 10, 2012 9:47 AM CST up reply actions  

This isn't a rational feeling.

And it’s not a case of disliking the guy at all. I thought Raffy was great.

But growing up… my pecking order was Ruben, Juando, Julio and then Raffy. And then when Pudge came up he took number 1 very quickly.

It was nothing against Raffy… I just never had a feeling as a kid (11 years old) that he was awesome. And that initial feeling never really changed.

I liked Raffy… but even though he put up hall of fame numbers I never really thought of him in those terms.

I’m not making an argument that he shouldn’t be in the hall of fame… I’m saying why I don’t have an emotional feeling of injustice for him not getting in.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 10, 2012 9:51 AM CST up reply actions  

Raffy

He’s got a little Bert Blyleven to him. Nothing super spectacular, but a lot of very good, consistent numbers.

I think the PED/finger-pointing stigma hurts him worse than others.

by CO Ranger on Jan 10, 2012 9:54 AM CST up reply actions  

I think he is going to end up being a veteran committee guy

Like a lot of the PED guys are. You can’t just discount what they did against their peers who were also likely taking them. You just put it all in context, just like baseball before Jackie.

@AdamLikesBeer If you are in Minneapolis I can tell you where to get a good brew.

by TargetField on Jan 10, 2012 9:59 AM CST up reply actions  

Henry Aaron was like that.

He never hit 50 HR, nor were his dongs majestic, but he hit a whole bunch of them.

"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11

by Atticus F on Jan 10, 2012 10:28 AM CST up reply actions  

'Dongs majestic'

is Chuck Greenberg’s nickname.

"By MLB.TV, we can see J. Hamilton's homer, M. Young's clutch, and N. Feliz's explosive. All about Rangers things can be our interest" --South Korean Rangers fan

Sports Producer, WFAA-TV/WFAA.com. Lover of feedback.

by Conjunction on Jan 10, 2012 10:29 AM CST up reply actions  

Hank Aaron played at a time when 50 HR's weren't very common

But he was top 5 in HR’s for like 19 seasons and led the league 5 times. He also was top 5 in WAR 11 times.

Palmeiro only had 6 seasons being top 5 in HR’s and 4 seasons top 5 in WAR.

by ab03 on Jan 10, 2012 10:46 AM CST up reply actions  

Remarkable consistency, but no defining moment.

Not really until 1974 when he was 40. Much like Palmeiro, he played for a team that didn’t go to the playoffs very often and didn’t do much when they were there (except 1957). I have heard some say that each played in a stadium that was more conducive to hitting in general and HRs in particular (some say hitting in Atlanta is why an aging Aaron was able to hit over 40 at age 39 in 1973.

"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11

by Atticus F on Jan 10, 2012 11:06 AM CST up reply actions  

I think they are similar in the sense that

Palmeiro’s Hall of Fame candidacy rests more on longevity and consistent production than any specific achievement or “moment.” And that both were overlooked during their own time frame. Aaron due mainly to racism and Palmeiro to steroids. Naturally, Aaron is a much better performer statistically speaking, but I thought we were discussing the irrational nature of HOF voting.

"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11

by Atticus F on Jan 10, 2012 12:19 PM CST up reply actions  

Aaron was overlooked becase of racism?

The reason Aaron isn’t considered better is most likely because of Willie Mays. And Aaron was a first ballot HOFer. I mean, was Aaron overlooked at all?

by ab03 on Jan 10, 2012 12:39 PM CST up reply actions  

But without 714 and 755

Would he have gotten the respect?

"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11

by Atticus F on Jan 10, 2012 12:48 PM CST up reply actions  

You are basically asking

“if Aaron wasn’t as good, would he have gotten the respect?”

by ab03 on Jan 10, 2012 12:52 PM CST up reply actions  

Not exactly

Where would Palmeiro have gotten without steroids? He was closing in on 600 HRs before the steroid debacle. He would have most likely gotten there and been in the top 5 of all time in total HRs. But it was a relatively quiet 600 HRs compared to some of his contemporaries such as Bonds or Griffey.

"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11

by Atticus F on Jan 10, 2012 1:09 PM CST up reply actions  

You are all over the place here

Palmeiro didn’t make it to 600 because he sucked in his last year. I don’t really understand what you are saying – that because he got caught, he couldn’t use them to get to 600? I guess…

And I’m not sure what that has to do with Aaron. Aaron is in a different conversation than Palmeiro. It has only a passing resemblance in that they both aggregated stats with consistency. Except Aaron was fantastic while being consistent and Palmeiro was merely great.

by ab03 on Jan 10, 2012 1:18 PM CST up reply actions  

just looked up some stats on them

Palmiero accumulated 74.3 fWAR in ~12K PAs. Aaron had 150.5 fWAR in about 13K PAs.

by RangerMad on Jan 10, 2012 2:08 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm not saying Larkin doesn't deserve it

but especially Bagwell deserves it, since he should have been a 90+% first ballot guy. The only reason Bags doesn’t stand out is that he was at 1b at a very good era for 1b (including Palmeiro), and he played half his games in the era’s equivalent of Petco Field…

And yeah, I’m being a bit homerific on Raffy. But the guy was a total stud hitter for about a 12-13 year stretch there. Far better than match’s Mark Grace example. One can imagine a HOF without Palmeiro, but there are a lot of current guys in therewho’d have to get kicked out too.

Go Rice Owls!
Would be a Matt Harrison fan, but I only like superstars

by JBImaknee on Jan 10, 2012 8:49 AM CST up reply actions  

For the record...

Palmeiro absolutely WASN’T Mark Grace.

That was just my first impression as a kid… and it never really left as a feeling. Bearing in mind I liked Mark Grace… and Will Clark was my favorite player growing up.

Palmeiro performed well enough to be the Hall of Fame… no doubt. He just never felt like a Hall of Famer to me personally.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 10, 2012 9:12 AM CST up reply actions  

For Raffy

I think it’s guys like Grace and Clark, who were pretty popular sports stars and had similar early career trajectories to Raffy, that make him hurt more by the PED stigma.

Even the Rangers dumped Raffy for Clark, and I think a lot of the very, very subjective voters look at a guy like Raffy and tell themselves that he would have been like Clark or Grace if it wasn’t for the ‘help.’

by CO Ranger on Jan 10, 2012 9:56 AM CST up reply actions  

I understand that we know that Palmeiro is guilty

I don’t understand the Bagwell hate. Larkin could have used enhancers. Nobody knows with players who played during this era.

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.

by NothinG on Jan 10, 2012 8:48 AM CST via Android app up reply actions  

Well, I think with Palmeiro and McGwire we're going to see something happen with Bonds and Clemens

I can’t see how you leave some out and put some in, unless you just say the burden is higher (need 600 homers instead of 500 – hello Sosa!) or “they were good before they go on the drugs” at which point you have to ask the same about Palmeiro (who was an old man chasing 3000)…

Go Rice Owls!
Would be a Matt Harrison fan, but I only like superstars

by JBImaknee on Jan 10, 2012 8:51 AM CST up reply actions  

Sosa will make a very interesting test for the voters

Three different seasons with more than 60 HRs
Lead the league in HRs in 2 different years
609 career HRs

And a poster boy for the PED era …

by CO Ranger on Jan 10, 2012 9:59 AM CST up reply actions  

Bagwell played his entire career in Houston.

HOF voters don’t care anything about Houston. To them, Houston is the new Cleveland.

"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11

by Atticus F on Jan 10, 2012 12:22 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't know how much that has to do with it.

Houston was good not that long ago.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 12:24 PM CST up reply actions  

But seriously, though.

If Derek Holland isn’t a Ranger for the next decade, that will make me have sad times.

"...out of the shadows of unprecedented success, the sun shines down upon this team waiting to thrill anew." - ghostofErikThompson

by jam0152 on Jan 10, 2012 8:47 AM CST reply actions  

It would really hurt me to see him in an other teams uniform

I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)

by Gay For Feliz on Jan 10, 2012 9:12 AM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Unless he was sucking

Not saying that he will … but just saying … I’d be fine seeing him pitch for the Indians or A’s of whoever if his shoulder falls apart and his career goes sideways from it’s current trajectory.

by CO Ranger on Jan 10, 2012 10:00 AM CST up reply actions  

If this happens, I'm blaming you.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 10, 2012 10:01 AM CST up reply actions  

was thinking that as I was writing

but my response was a reply away from the name of the guy in question, whose name I will not say, and really, it was more of a general statement than anything else

Actually, I take that back, I do have super powers of focus and actualization (like Simon in that kids’ show from the early 80’s) and the things I say come true.

by CO Ranger on Jan 10, 2012 10:12 AM CST up reply actions  

Big Dick Durrett talks about the Boras clients the Rangers may be interested in

Prince, Madson, and Gonzalez

http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas/texas-rangers/post/_/id/4877024/could-boras-end-up-on-texas-speed-dial

"...out of the shadows of unprecedented success, the sun shines down upon this team waiting to thrill anew." - ghostofErikThompson

by jam0152 on Jan 10, 2012 9:09 AM CST reply actions  

I like what Durrett says about the Rangers FO in that.

It feels he like understands the Rangers (much) better now than he did a year ago and much, much better than the ol’ SmurfGobbler.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 10:59 AM CST up reply actions  

+5 internets

Defending Big D Check it out
Twitter
"You guys are talking about living forever like it’s a real thing, but I bust out a man shoving his head into a vagina, and it’s srs time?"
--iorange555 8/23/2011

by Josh Lile on Jan 10, 2012 10:13 AM CST up reply actions  

Flooding in Houston.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 10, 2012 9:53 AM CST up reply actions  

So odd.

The rain was supposed to be today and instead it just poured for 3 hours suddenly, then stopped.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 10:41 AM CST up reply actions  

just read the kendrick/ian comparison

do you think Ian is worth about double what Kendrick got after reading the article?

by capps1 on Jan 10, 2012 11:38 AM CST reply actions  

Hard to say...

..they both had good years last year and will likely regress a bit next year.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:42 AM CST up reply actions  

i really think Kendrick is gona excel with Pujols hitting behind him

and I really think Ian has topped out cuz he never changed his pull swing

by capps1 on Jan 10, 2012 11:44 AM CST up reply actions  

Fangraphs seems to think his value is up there.

Also, I think that would make him the highest or second highest paid 2B. Not sure he would be getting that.

by DFWAg on Jan 10, 2012 11:49 AM CST up reply actions  

not arguing that..just arguing cost..we cant sign evryone

so in my opinion..Kinsler and Cruz are both prime to be moved for better good of team

by capps1 on Jan 10, 2012 11:53 AM CST up reply actions  

Something happened

where we don’t think about Profar nearly enough. We need to seriously increase the mentions of Profar and never get that Profar is the Profar

by ab03 on Jan 10, 2012 12:41 PM CST up reply actions  

INORITE?!

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 12:44 PM CST up reply actions  

thats what the FO is for

im just looking at it..kendrick signs for 8.5mill a year..since they are similar players why would we pay 60-75% more for an older player?..im sure JD could find someone solid and spend that extra money on extending Holland or another pitcher

by capps1 on Jan 10, 2012 12:38 PM CST up reply actions  

Oh good grief.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 12:44 PM CST up reply actions  

well charlie brown..lol

your saying Ians 14hr and 15sbs are worth 5-6mil more a year?..i dont..i just think the money is better spent elsewhere

by capps1 on Jan 10, 2012 12:54 PM CST up reply actions  

No, that's not what I'm saying.

But there’s no future to a discussion in which the answer is, “that’s what the FO is for.”

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 1:06 PM CST up reply actions  

well thats what all this discussion is..

JD makes nice FO moves..my point simply is..Ian is a solid player..but instead of using pedroia and cano as guidelines..kendrick is comparable JD should make decision based closer to that

by capps1 on Jan 10, 2012 1:16 PM CST up reply actions  

No, that's not what all this discussion is.

There’s no point in having a discussion about why you think trading Kinsler this year or next is a good idea, unless you have a potential replacement at second base in mind.

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by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 1:18 PM CST up reply actions  

I think they should

decide what value Kinsler has and make an offer based on that, with many other relevant players’ contracts as reference points but not strict guidelines. Kinsler is better than Kendrick (or, perhaps better to say, is LIKELY to be better going forward than Kendrick is) and is therefore more valuable than Kendrick. He is not likely to be quite as good as Pedroia.

Kinsler has the same career WAR (no, that is not the only measure I’d use) as Cano, but in 280 fewer games.

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Jan 10, 2012 1:21 PM CST up reply actions  

similar players

ok.

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Jan 10, 2012 12:48 PM CST up reply actions  

Hitters being protected

doesn’t seem to hold up over the course of a season, though I’m not sure if it’s different in the playoffs.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 11:54 AM CST up reply actions  

That article

speaks to Match’s point above – the Rangers face an issue with their position player’s counting stats being inflated by the park factor.

When you see that Ian hit 30+ HRs, some would say he should be paid like X. But Kins’ and Kendricks’ road slugging numbers are much closer, so …

Similar to pitchers that come out of Petco, the Rangers have to take that into account while looking at extensions and contracts.

by CO Ranger on Jan 10, 2012 12:26 PM CST up reply actions  

Sure. At the same time, there's no call to totally disregard Kinsler's home numbers.

People too often assume a big home/road split is somehow “bad,” and leave it at that.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 12:29 PM CST up reply actions  

Yep.

This is why we have park factors.

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 12:37 PM CST up reply actions  

People can decide whether he's better/worse than Cano based on those numbers

but he still gets to play 82 regular season games at home. That has value

by ab03 on Jan 10, 2012 12:42 PM CST up reply actions  

A-yup.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 12:44 PM CST up reply actions  

i dont disregard HR's but i dont think they are that big point

Jim Rice said..if you multiply your Hr by 3 and its more than your rbis..your not doing your job..

by capps1 on Jan 10, 2012 12:47 PM CST up reply actions  

Uhhh...yeah.

Let’s just say I don’t trust Jim Rice here…

"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels

by GhettoBear04 on Jan 10, 2012 12:50 PM CST up reply actions  

In 2001 Barry Bonds hit 73 home runs and ONLY had 137 RBI

Pathetic job by Bonds.

My mind just says throw ball throw hard and strike. - Marteen

by Keynes on Jan 10, 2012 1:18 PM CST up reply actions  

Actually...

How the hell do you do that? He only drove in 64 players not named Barry Bonds.

That’s astounding.

My mind just says throw ball throw hard and strike. - Marteen

by Keynes on Jan 10, 2012 1:30 PM CST up reply actions  

.

“You can look it up.”

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 1:36 PM CST up reply actions  

I could.

But I feel that my recollection is pretty damn close that I didn’t worry about looking it up. It was either 01 or 02 that he had just under 200 walks and the other year he had around 175 or something. I’m not sure it’s necessary to be exceptionally specific considering it’s an absurd amount of walks either way.

by DFWAg on Jan 10, 2012 1:38 PM CST up reply actions  

Nevermind

You meant regarding how many times he had a chance to hit with men on.

by DFWAg on Jan 10, 2012 1:39 PM CST up reply actions  

HERE WE ARE NOW, ENTERTAIN US.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 1:40 PM CST up reply actions  

44 percent of the time he came up with RISP,

opponents walked him. 44 percent.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 1:42 PM CST up reply actions  

Yes. 34 IBB out of the 71 BB issued with RISP.

You can tell it’s not a separate count because that would total 105 walks (which would’ve been counted as PA) — and Bonds had only (163 PA – 89 AB =) 74 PA that didn’t result in an AB. That is, 71 walks, 2 sacrifice flies, and 1 hit-by-pitch.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 1:51 PM CST up reply actions  

So, in short: when he came up with RISP,

opponents issued clear, formal IBBs to Bond about 21 percent of the time.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 1:52 PM CST up reply actions  

Check out his 2004.

My mind just says throw ball throw hard and strike. - Marteen

by Keynes on Jan 10, 2012 1:56 PM CST up reply actions  

And in the initial sense, he hit 45 HR and had 101 RBI in 2004

So slightly less pathetic by wJRDyJ+

My mind just says throw ball throw hard and strike. - Marteen

by Keynes on Jan 10, 2012 1:58 PM CST up reply actions  

WEIGHTED JIM RICE DID YOUR JOB PLUS, HUH?

ALRIGHT!

WELP.

SEE YA!

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 1:59 PM CST up reply actions  

Wow.

IBB’d almost half the time. That’s incredible.

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by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 1:58 PM CST up reply actions  

337 sOPS+ is good right?

(And this time it’s a real stat with science and everything and not a funny joke about a dumb thing.)

My mind just says throw ball throw hard and strike. - Marteen

by Keynes on Jan 10, 2012 2:05 PM CST up reply actions  

It'll do, pig. It'll do.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 2:06 PM CST up reply actions  

wow

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Jan 10, 2012 2:07 PM CST up reply actions  

HOF players all you have named..

but everyone else numbers it is quick barometer..it was just his overall viewpoint of hrs..

by capps1 on Jan 10, 2012 1:18 PM CST up reply actions  

Your point was made clearly

If the point you were trying to make is that Jim Rice is not a very smart man when it comes to baseball analysis.

My mind just says throw ball throw hard and strike. - Marteen

by Keynes on Jan 10, 2012 1:22 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

I was hoping someone would come back and point out

that for his entire career, Henderson had more than 3 times as many RBI as HR.

And I would get to point out that that’s because he stopped hitting as many home runs.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 1:20 PM CST up reply actions  

So sez Jim Rice.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 1:40 PM CST up reply actions  

It has to equal 3 or you suck.

And he’s in the HALL OF FAME so we should go by what he says.

Put it this way: You know Bill James? Tango? Fast?

Morons.

My mind just says throw ball throw hard and strike. - Marteen

by Keynes on Jan 10, 2012 2:03 PM CST up reply actions  

This is apparently why Hank Aaron is so underrated

Incidentally, I don’t know that Jim Rice went through the list of greats and did the multiplications. Or if he did, I don’t know that Jim Rice is a very smart man.

by ab03 on Jan 10, 2012 12:56 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't know that Jim Rice is a very smart man

therefore, I can only assume that he is very stupid and made a terrible mistake here. /bigsteve

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Jan 10, 2012 12:59 PM CST up reply actions  

It sounds like a guy's view

who was trying to get into the HOF and giving voters something to latch onto even though he probably shouldn’t be in the Hall.

Adrian Beltre has the same WAR as Rice…right now.

by ab03 on Jan 10, 2012 1:06 PM CST up reply actions  

oh shit

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Jan 10, 2012 1:07 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

If Rice had been a pitcher

he would always have allowed one less run than the opposition I guess.

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Jan 10, 2012 1:16 PM CST up reply actions  

and something about being feared

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Jan 10, 2012 1:22 PM CST up reply actions  

It's better than being loved?

DO I WIN? DO I WIN?

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 1:22 PM CST up reply actions  

Only if you're prepared to go to hell for your princeship

My mind just says throw ball throw hard and strike. - Marteen

by Keynes on Jan 10, 2012 1:24 PM CST up reply actions  

I'M THE KING OF THE WORLD!

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 1:26 PM CST up reply actions  

Adam

Do you ever think of renaming the blog Lone Star Offtopic?

Go Strangers.

by hightowersmith on Jan 10, 2012 12:45 PM CST reply actions  

leave us alone!!!!!!!!

"God dammit TAG I swear to God if you keep this "It was a close play" shit up all night I will send you cookies made from my own shit" -River Fenix 8/26/2011

"this is a big reason I decided not to convert to Islam now if it was 72 skanks? Different story, my friend" Bob Loblaw 9/2/2011

by I am Neftali Feliz on Jan 10, 2012 12:50 PM CST up reply actions  

There's been a ton of baseball talk in this thread...

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 10, 2012 1:36 PM CST up reply actions  

WHEN WE GONNA GIT SUM PITCHIN'?!

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 10, 2012 1:37 PM CST up reply actions  

By this time next week, no doubt!

My mind just says throw ball throw hard and strike. - Marteen

by Keynes on Jan 10, 2012 1:44 PM CST up reply actions  

Jim Reeves talks about JuanGon's steroid tainted legacy

http://espn.go.com/dallas/mlb/story/_/id/7446551/specter-steroids-doomed-juan-gonzalez-hall-fame-hopes

"...out of the shadows of unprecedented success, the sun shines down upon this team waiting to thrill anew." - ghostofErikThompson

by jam0152 on Jan 10, 2012 1:00 PM CST reply actions  

Is that what doomed Juan Gonzalez?

It wasn’t the fact that he wasn’t great for long enough?

by ab03 on Jan 10, 2012 1:01 PM CST up reply actions  

steroids didn't ruin his HOF chances

not being quite good enough, long enough ruined his chances.

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Jan 10, 2012 1:02 PM CST up reply actions  

I guess if he was good enough long enough

then steroids would have probably ruined his chances. Of course, I’m pretty sure Pudge is getting in first ballot if he ever decides to retire.

by ab03 on Jan 10, 2012 1:07 PM CST up reply actions  

i dont think so

however he was on that team…..i’m not sure what the perception of him was nationally.

NO This is why i dont come here so much anymore. it has become a destination for certain types which i am not. Love the rangers, not this -- Mark from OC on Arrested Development

Justin Verlander? I piss on Justin Verlander --AJM

by shock00 on Jan 10, 2012 1:11 PM CST up reply actions  

I just don't recall as much of a stigma with Pudge.

There was some discussion about him that I recall, but I don’t recall it being as heavy as with Juan. Obviously this is my own personal perception which is why I’m asking others (and it seems at least one other has a similar sentiment).

by DFWAg on Jan 10, 2012 1:13 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't PEDs matter for either

but Juan had no value on defense and his bat wasn’t good enough for long enough. Pudge had a great bat for his position and had good value behind the plate. To me, Pudge is a HOFer hand down even with any PED suspicions taken into account.

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Jan 10, 2012 1:12 PM CST up reply actions  

Juan Gone

I blame John Hart and his stupid-ass “sunglasses” commercial for ruining Gonzalez.

"Those cocksuckers asking me if I thought we were gonna go up there and try to work his fuckin’ pitch count ‘cause he’s on three fuckin’ days rest…you know what I told those cocksuckers? He pitch ball, ball cross plate, we gonna knock the shit out of it."

- Wash

by RCCook on Jan 10, 2012 1:50 PM CST up reply actions  

from the huh department
espn_durrett Richard Durrett
Tommy Mendonca coming to camp as a catcher, BTW.

JD’s like, "you want some f*&#ing pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, b*#&hes!"- RCCook

LSB: "Oh s#*t, JD. You crazy!"

by laxtonto on Jan 10, 2012 3:23 PM CST reply actions  

WTF?

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Jan 10, 2012 3:40 PM CST up reply actions  

Wait, what?

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Jan 10, 2012 3:44 PM CST up reply actions  

Strange indeed.

Anyone know if he played catcher in HS or something?

by VM on Jan 10, 2012 3:56 PM CST via iPhone app up reply actions  

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