Cameron: What Darvish has to do to be worth $111 million

Cameron says Darvish needs to post 20 WAR from 2012-17 to be worth what the Rangers are paying, and looks at several pitchers who gave almost exactly that much value over 6 year periods in the Aughts.

4 months ago Adam J. Morris 22 comments 0 recs |

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Hmm

didn’t realize $/WAR had gone up so much

by ab03 on Jan 19, 2012 12:10 PM CST reply actions

So did Cameron just steal matchstick's article or is their new info in this?

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Jan 19, 2012 12:22 PM CST reply actions

He fairly obviously didn't steal anything.

It’s a pretty fundamental question that we are all wondering [and that FanGraphs often attempts to answer].

I think the article provides value in terms of trying to project what ‘being worth it’ actually looks like in terms of pitching performances over the past decade.

OurDailyBears.com

by Prashanth Francis on Jan 19, 2012 1:03 PM CST up reply actions

Right.

It’s a fairly obvious analysis that needed to be done. What does $111M buy you? I intentionally did mine as 25 year olds to make a certain point… this is a more direct comparison.

Also… I <3 Dave Cameron… I would be flattered as shit if he even read an article of mine… much less stole from it (which he clearly didn’t)

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 19, 2012 1:46 PM CST up reply actions

Oh yeah, I'm sure he didn't steal anything

I was just joking and was wondering if there was anything different from matchstick’s post that made it a worthwhile read.

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Jan 19, 2012 2:26 PM CST up reply actions

He compared any pitchers...

I only looked at ones from ages 25 to 29.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 19, 2012 2:31 PM CST up reply actions

Did anyone read this MGL post?

Some interesting discussion of value in the comments….

You can’t always just look at surplus value, though. As was pointed out in the comments, the Angels wouldn’t trade Pujols for some random 1 WAR player.

by VM on Jan 19, 2012 1:03 PM CST reply actions

Yes,

one of my complaints with these things is that they take statistics and economic models that work for most of the league and then try to apply it everywhere, when it clearly (to me at least) doesn’t work at the tails.

OurDailyBears.com

by Prashanth Francis on Jan 19, 2012 1:07 PM CST up reply actions

Yeah. MGL comes off as belligerent at times, too...

His point about the media missing the boat in terms of considering contracts is true, but…

by VM on Jan 19, 2012 1:16 PM CST up reply actions

Agree with how you phrased it 100%.

OurDailyBears.com

by Prashanth Francis on Jan 19, 2012 1:45 PM CST up reply actions

And I've often argued

that people don’t do enough to consider the contract that Felix is signed on here.

OurDailyBears.com

by Prashanth Francis on Jan 19, 2012 1:46 PM CST up reply actions

At 5/75, it should be pretty easy for CJ to provide that value.

As good as Prince Fielder would've looked in a 4XL Rangers' uniform, we all know you win with pitching. -- JJT

The truth about MLers from a MLer, Todd Coffey:
"In my heart of hearts, if it's the right contract, I would look to definitely come back to the Nationals."

by rooster on Jan 19, 2012 5:10 PM CST reply actions

For Darvish to be worth 111MM

The Rangers need to win a world series.

by nickbahh on Jan 19, 2012 6:42 PM CST reply actions 1 recs

Or two or three or ten

"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11

"Replace Ace? Done. Ace's was too long anyway." --Micah 1-17-12

by Atticus F on Jan 19, 2012 7:18 PM CST up reply actions

Klaw

Nate (Dubuque) [via mobile]

Heard the argument that Darvish would be, at best, worth 2-3 more wins to the Texas rotation than Ogando, and that Fielder would represent more of a wins-upgrade by replacing Moreland. If the Rangers did indeed choose one over the other, what is your take?

Klaw (2:05 PM)

I would dispute that valuation of the pitchers.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 19, 2012 9:20 PM CST reply actions

Me, too.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 19, 2012 9:48 PM CST up reply actions

I've asked Cameron in a chat...

What his expectations for Darvish are and where did those expectations come from?

Didn’t get an answer… maybe I’ll email him.

I love Dave… but I have no idea what would give him any real insight to what kind of pitcher Darvish will be.

I think that’s one of the weakest areas of FanGraphs… they’ll try and give an answer to questions they may not have a strong ability to answer just to give one.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 19, 2012 9:59 PM CST up reply actions