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Around SBN: NFL Safety Ryan Clark's Motivational Workout

The Rangers should do what it takes to get a Fielder deal with agent Scott Boras. Fielder and Hamilton could chase a championship together in 2012, with Fielder's presence ultimately allowing Hamilton to explore the free-agent market without sending his club into crisis mode.

With Fielder aboard, Daniels could make his best possible offer — say four years at $15 million per — to Hamilton and see if anyone beats it. They might not, as Hamilton's age, past and a playing style that has led to frequent injuries (he has averaged only 114 games the last three seasons) could limit his marketability.

From Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune. That Rogers -- who is pretty well-respected and plugged-in -- thinks Hamilton might not get more than a 4/60 offer in free agency is pretty noteworthy.

4 months ago Th_buckykatt_tiny Adam J. Morris 590 comments 0 recs  | 

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Noteworthy

and hard to swallow.

"...out of the shadows of unprecedented success, the sun shines down upon this team waiting to thrill anew." - ghostofErikThompson

by jam0152 on Jan 22, 2012 10:37 AM CST reply actions  

If 4y/$60M is enough to keep Josh

Then I’m all for it. Unfortunately that will be nowhere near what it will take to keep him. Heck, even I think that’s a lowball offer, and I’m no Josh lover.

by RangersfaninROK on Jan 22, 2012 10:41 AM CST via mobile reply actions  

Its really not

when you consider the likely performance you’ll get, I’m not sure that he’ll be worth more than 15 million a year for 4 years. When he’s healthy, he’s a hell of a player. The problem is that he has proven that he won’t ever be healthy for a full season. So you’re not getting great performance over 162 games, you’re hoping for great performance in like 100 games with a likely 15-20 games of subpar performance while Hamilton is playing at much less than 100%.

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Jan 22, 2012 1:36 PM CST up reply actions  

If Hamilton continues his trends of games played and is out a period of time this year again

with numbers similar or above last year, I’d not expect anything longer than a 4-year contract or 4+some option combo.

If he plays 135/140+ and has numbers even halfway back to his 2010 vs his 2011, some idiot team will Werth him.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:38 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah

Really his only chance at a Werth contract is if he manages to be more like the 2010 version rather than the 2011 version. 2011 Hamilton was great while healthy, but missed 40 games on the season and played more while not at 100%. 2010 Hamilton was great for the entire season until a late season injury.

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Jan 22, 2012 1:49 PM CST up reply actions  

I would have no objections to signing both Prince and Josh to team friendly deals.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 10:41 AM CST reply actions  

Not that this would happen,

but I wonder if its possible to write a contract offer stating it’s void if the team doesn’t come to terms with another player as well. Meaning: You could offer both Prince and Josh lower deals that are only valid as long as both players agree, which could let you build a powerhouse for less money.

Again, it wouldn’t every happen, but it would be awesome.

HNNNNNNGGGGG

by JoseTres on Jan 22, 2012 10:52 AM CST up reply actions  

yeah

no player or agent would EVER do that

"God dammit TAG I swear to God if you keep this "It was a close play" shit up all night I will send you cookies made from my own shit" -River Fenix 8/26/2011

"this is a big reason I decided not to convert to Islam now if it was 72 skanks? Different story, my friend" Bob Loblaw 9/2/2011

by I am Neftali Feliz on Jan 22, 2012 11:45 AM CST up reply actions  

The Hamels camp has recently noted how unique the Weaver extension was--how that can't be the benchmark for a guy in Hamels' situation.

Is the Hamilton camp going to have to recognize that the Werth deal is also uniquely…stupid? That there’s no way Josh will ever fetch that many years, even if he can fetch that kind of AAV? Still, 4/60 seems awfully low.

"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs

by JDT217 on Jan 22, 2012 10:43 AM CST reply actions  

All the data says that large contracts to aging players are losing investments

at some point, the teams will understand this and stop giving them out, right?

Maybe we’re nearing that point.

by Jobu. on Jan 22, 2012 11:55 AM CST up reply actions  

There will always be

Teams like the Marlins, Angels and Nationals who want to make a big splash.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 11:56 AM CST up reply actions  

Sure,

But that doesn’t upset my point, does it?

by Jobu. on Jan 22, 2012 11:58 AM CST up reply actions  

It only takes one team though...

So even if 29 teams think that you shouldn’t give out that kind of contract to Hamilton… if one does then it doesn’t matter.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 12:01 PM CST up reply actions  

Sure, but the size of the contract that the rogue spender puts out should come down.

Even the Red Sox, who are huge spenders, targeted younger players with their large contracts in Crawford and AGon.

I think the more Werth’s we see, the more teams are turned against the idea. The rogue spender might be able to give an absurd contract for Hamilton next year at 5/95, instead.

by Jobu. on Jan 22, 2012 12:05 PM CST up reply actions  

Who saw the Marlins binge coming?

I don’t think the world (baseball or otherwise) will ever run out of or eradicate stupid.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 12:08 PM CST up reply actions  

Back to the Future

"I don't really like pitchers." - Nelson Cruz

by AceJC on Jan 22, 2012 12:08 PM CST up reply actions  

Good point.

Still need them to change leagues though.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 12:10 PM CST up reply actions  

Astros got it instead.

This is what happens when you mess with the space time continuum.

"I don't really like pitchers." - Nelson Cruz

by AceJC on Jan 22, 2012 1:55 PM CST up reply actions  

Yup.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 12:09 PM CST up reply actions  

I'd like to believe that MLB clubs are this rational, but I don't think there are.

And I think what matchst1ck is pointing out is that for every bad contract after which observers say, “that’s it, you won’t find even one club out of 30 that will make that sort of deal anytime soon” — like the Park deal, or the Zito deal, or the Burnett deal, or the Werth deal — sure enough, there’s at least one club out of 30 that will make that sort of deal sometime soon.

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 12:09 PM CST up reply actions  

*they are

there

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 12:09 PM CST up reply actions  

Right,

I’m not claiming that we’ve seen the last bad contract.

We’re coming off an era where players played well for a longer time, and revenue is up. I think as we get more data that these contracts are bad deals, there will be less teams willing to give them.

Even if you have a couple teams that are desperate, if you have more players in their 30’s looking for that mondo contract than teams out there willing to be stupid, you should see an adjustment.

by Jobu. on Jan 22, 2012 12:11 PM CST up reply actions  

I agree with some adjustment...

But to this specific question you posed:

…at some point, the teams will understand this and stop giving them out, right?

I think the answer will always be “No.”

We may see less of them… but some teams will always keep giving them out.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 12:13 PM CST up reply actions  

That sounds more absolutist than I meant it

I don’t mean there will be no teams willing to give them out. But as there are less GM’s willing to even consider it, you’ll have less bidding, and the prices should come down, imo. (Obviously, as revenue goes up, the price will certainly go up, I’m speaking relatively)

by Jobu. on Jan 22, 2012 12:15 PM CST up reply actions  

I think that you're assuming more perfect information that exists.

Either that, or teams like the Yankees, Rangers, Nationals, et al. have been really, really good at ignoring available information when overpaying free agents.

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 12:17 PM CST up reply actions  

Yes.

The Rangers of the 2000s made a number of bad free-agent signings.

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 12:21 PM CST up reply actions  

A large number.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 12:22 PM CST up reply actions  

Gotcha

I asked because the Rangers currently are on of the big market players that are unwilling to perpetuate the over-spending.

by Jobu. on Jan 22, 2012 12:22 PM CST up reply actions  

Yes.

Change in ownership, change in front office. They’re in a much better place now.

My point’s that those deals are now well-recognized as terrible… and they’re done deals, that have completely played out… and yet teams are still signing free agents to similar types of deals.

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 12:24 PM CST up reply actions  

What do you think of the Madson deal?

Seems like teams are catching on to the folly of handing out pricey long-term deals to closers. Papelbon being the only big exception this year.

"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs

by JDT217 on Jan 22, 2012 12:17 PM CST up reply actions  

Madson deal was very good for the Reds.

And I think the lack of long term deals was more due to the flooded market than teams getting smarter.

If the supply is low you’ll still have a team decide the just have to have some body.

JD’s ability to not cave in is great (thus far). You have to have a lot of job security to take that approach.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 12:19 PM CST up reply actions  

Why?

What data are clubs lacking now about the deals handed out over the last, say, 10-20 years?

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 12:14 PM CST up reply actions  

We've had a fairly small sample size, until fairly recently, right?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/?page_id=179

If you look at that list, the contracts that were given to 30 yr old players have turned out extremely poorly every time (exception: Barry Bonds and Cliff Lee tbd)

by Jobu. on Jan 22, 2012 12:18 PM CST up reply actions  

As a concept, sample size doesn't really apply, here.

But it’s your second sentence that’s the important one, isn’t it? It’s not like all of the contracts given to players who were going to be well into their 30s by the time they finished are very recent. There are data out there to show that this is a bad idea; sites like THT and FanGraphs and BTBS and The Book and so on have documented the trends.

Wouldn’t you think MLB front offices would’ve caught on? I don’t think it’s a question of not having the data; I think it’s a question of not operating purely on the data.

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 12:21 PM CST up reply actions  

You're right it's still a small sample,

I just mean every time a new contract that comes out and a new GM’s reputation is stung by it, I think we’re moving closer to eradicating them. It’ll be a slow process, but you already have GM’s that are there who weren’t previously.

If you take my point too far, it’s easy to argue against. I just think we’re on a downward slope.

by Jobu. on Jan 22, 2012 12:25 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah, I think we just disagree.

We’re living in a Barnum and Bailey world.

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 12:29 PM CST up reply actions  

Greatest show on Earth when they team up with those brothers

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Jan 22, 2012 1:50 PM CST up reply actions  

I was going for the Yip Harburg/Nat King Cole reference.

Mostly for scoop, but I don’t know that he caught it.

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 1:54 PM CST up reply actions  

Opposite situations though, right?

It behooves Hamels’ team to write off the Weaver deal as a comparable, because it hurts their negotiating position to acknowledge it as one.

Hamilton’s team will have zero reason to write off the Werth deal — it can only help them.

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 12:01 PM CST up reply actions  

i think he was saying that Team Hamilton might have to write off the Werth contract

just because if new contract negotiations are going to ignore team-friendly deals (a la Weaver), then they should also ignore player-friendly deals (a la Werth).

I don’t believe it will happen, but I think that’s what he was saying.

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jan 22, 2012 12:03 PM CST up reply actions  

Right. But what they do internally, in terms of framing Hamilton's expectations,

will almost certainly be different than what they do externally, in terms of public relations.

PR-wise, I can’t believe that Hamilton’s camp will ever acknowledge that the Werth deal, or anything like it, was stupid or unrealistic or whatnot.

Now, Hamilton’s agents would probably be well advised to let him know he shouldn’t expect to receive the same sort of offer — just like Boras would’ve been well advised to let Fielder know that it was very unlikely he’d get a Pujols-like offer. But I haven’t seen anyone from Fielder’s team acknowledge that…

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 12:07 PM CST up reply actions  

I agree.

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 12:14 PM CST up reply actions  

(Premature posting: I hate that.)

But I’d hope his agents are at least gently preparing him for how the market’s likely to respond.

I don’t think we’ve seen the last of Werth-like deals, but I also don’t think Hamilton’s likely to be the guy to coax one out of a club. It’s not impossible, or even very improbable, I guess, but I’d hope someone’s at least hinting about the realities.

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 12:16 PM CST up reply actions  

If there is another team like the Marlins out there next offseason, I could see it

but I don’t think there is another team that will have a ton of money to spend and a desire to bring in a big name, very charismatic player like Hamilton to their team at any cost.

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Jan 22, 2012 2:00 PM CST up reply actions  

We'll see.

It could be a way for the Dodgers to make a splash, for example.

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 2:02 PM CST up reply actions  

I can actually kind of see that in my mind.

Hamilton seems like a good future Dodger.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 2:03 PM CST up reply actions  

Fuck

I was trying to think who could do it and I completely forgot about them. Yeah, I can definitely see Hamilton in a Dodgers uniform.

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Jan 22, 2012 2:26 PM CST up reply actions  

Well at least he won't be in the AL if that's the case

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Jan 22, 2012 2:42 PM CST up reply actions  

Silver and blue lining!

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 2:55 PM CST up reply actions  

It seems like they would have other priorities.

Such as signing Kershaw long-term. Adding a centerfielder to move Kemp to left. They may need a 1st basemen as well if Sands doesn’t fit or maybe add a 1st and use Sands to replace Ethier. Prince could be well served taking a 1 year deal.

by casew on Jan 22, 2012 3:04 PM CST up reply actions  

Sure.

But a sorted-out ownership situation and influx of cash (for example, with new ownership could come a shiny new TV deal) could make the Dodgers players for premium free agents, and Hamilton would fill a potential need.

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 3:07 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't know if you are right.

maybe, but I think he likes it here and I don’t know that he would like every other destination. There aren’t a lot of people who would turn down money but might be the kind of guy to do it.

by ab03 on Jan 22, 2012 12:29 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Yes.

"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs

by JDT217 on Jan 22, 2012 12:06 PM CST up reply actions  

I thought he was 30?
the 32-year-old Hamilton is eligible for free agency after this season

by Professor Ch@os on Jan 22, 2012 10:57 AM CST reply actions  

Turns 31 in May.

So 2012 is his age 31 season.

2013 will be his age 32 season… that might be what he meant.

But right this second… he is 30.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 10:58 AM CST up reply actions  

Just wondering ...

because maybe Rogers is mistaken about his age. He thinks he’s 32 now and will be 33 when he hits free agency, and that’s why he thinks he wouldn’t get more than 4 yrs at $15MM per?

by Professor Ch@os on Jan 22, 2012 11:03 AM CST up reply actions  

Holt

Born: May 21, 1981

We’re not about sending messages. We’re about winning ballgames.-Wash, 04/03/11
Hell to the fucking no. -Wash, 10/07/11

by Rodney on Jan 22, 2012 10:59 AM CST up reply actions  

Or was he?

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 22, 2012 12:24 PM CST up reply actions  

His real name is Fausto Carmona

and he is 41

"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11

"Replace Ace? Done. Ace's was too long anyway." --Micah 1-17-12

by Atticus F on Jan 22, 2012 1:12 PM CST up reply actions  

Never happen.

"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz

"Baseball's all that's real" - JB

by Ryin A on Jan 22, 2012 11:06 AM CST via mobile reply actions  

4/60 for Hamilton would really surprise me, too.

Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.

"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.

by Aqua on Jan 22, 2012 11:07 AM CST up reply actions  

My "fielder" twitter search

Yields a fair amount of cricket tweets.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 11:08 AM CST reply actions  

I may be way off base here

but isn’t the consensus that Josh’s contract will be closer to double this, in both years and dollars?

by Soonernick on Jan 22, 2012 11:09 AM CST reply actions  

I think the tentative consensus is that he'll get an AAV like this, but over 2--maybe 3--more years.

It’s a pretty tough market to gauge at this point though.

"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs

by JDT217 on Jan 22, 2012 11:11 AM CST up reply actions  

I think he'll get a higher AAV over just one--or perhaps 2--more years.

My prediction right this minute would be something like 5/95 with a team option on year 6 and a favorable buyout.

"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs

by JDT217 on Jan 22, 2012 11:12 AM CST up reply actions  

good luck to Josh on that

I sure hope he finds it from one of the 29 other teams

by Baseball North on Jan 22, 2012 11:45 AM CST up reply actions  

Yu can't always get what Yu want.

But if Yu try sometimes, Yu just might find…

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 12:02 PM CST up reply actions  

Yu get what Yu need...

"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11

"Replace Ace? Done. Ace's was too long anyway." --Micah 1-17-12

by Atticus F on Jan 22, 2012 1:13 PM CST up reply actions  

His Splits

Just looked up his splits thinking I’d be able to post a nifty argument that the Rangers should let him walk at that price.

He’s actually quite good.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 22, 2012 12:11 PM CST reply actions  

Quick question...

Who do you think lead the Rangers in swinging at pitches out of the strike zone in 2011?

Who do you think lead the Rangers in swinging strikes in 2011?

Do you expect those things to get better as he ages?

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 12:15 PM CST up reply actions  

Not saying I'd pay him.

Just saying he isn’t your typical Ranger. He’s a 850-900 ish bat outside of Arlington, which is elite-ish.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 22, 2012 12:19 PM CST up reply actions  

Ha

No, you didn’t

by ab03 on Jan 22, 2012 12:20 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Nice.

Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.

"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.

by Aqua on Jan 22, 2012 12:20 PM CST up reply actions  

Wow.

Your wizardry is mesmerizing. Tell me more, as I’ve obviously found the Yoda of baseball.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 22, 2012 12:23 PM CST up reply actions  

Hardly

At least 15 people reading this immediately realize your opinions suck. I’m just the one with no patience or tact.

by ab03 on Jan 22, 2012 12:27 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Hey!

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 12:28 PM CST up reply actions  

I'd like to hear more about your typical Ranger...

And then what percentage of the Rangers actually adheres to that standard.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 12:24 PM CST up reply actions  

Haven't done a comprehensive check.

Most of the time, when I check the home road splits of Rangers, their home stats outperform their road stats by a non-random margin. Judging by your tone, I’m guessing you have a nice tidy argument against the belief that players exploit one of the friendliest hitting environments in the league.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 22, 2012 12:27 PM CST up reply actions  

Non-trivial

Not non-random

by ab03 on Jan 22, 2012 12:30 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

I'm just curious what you meant by typical Ranger... rather than typical baseball player.

For the American League as a whole, the league average was a wRC+ of 100 at home and 93 on the road.

Yes, RBiA is a hitter friendly park… but Josh being able to also hit on the road doesn’t mean he’s an atypical Ranger. It just means he’s a good hitter. Like several other good hitters on the Rangers.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 12:33 PM CST up reply actions  

And a 34-point difference in wRC+.

But we probably shouldn’t let content get in the way of context, right?

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 12:39 PM CST up reply actions  

And?

You shouldn’t let the point get in the way right? Where do I say his splits aren’t pronounced?

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 22, 2012 12:40 PM CST up reply actions  

I'll give you this.

You love being an asshole.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 22, 2012 12:42 PM CST up reply actions  

Except he isn't

Perseverance isn't just the willingness to work hard. It's that, plus the willingness to be stubborn about your own belief in yourself."
---Merlin Olsen

by Schultzy on Jan 22, 2012 12:43 PM CST up reply actions  

I wouldn't mind snarky...

…if he knew the point of the discussion.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 22, 2012 12:48 PM CST up reply actions  

Not true.

But ignorant assumptions are consistent with what I’ve seen from you so far.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 22, 2012 12:49 PM CST up reply actions  

(And slow on the uptake?)

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 12:50 PM CST up reply actions  

Just didn't realize....

..that people enjoyed being morons so much. Ok man. Devolve away.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 22, 2012 12:52 PM CST up reply actions  

It's a sooper-sekrit point...

"An invasion of armies can be resisted, but not an idea whose time has come." *Victor Hugo*

by K.S.B. on Jan 22, 2012 1:49 PM CST up reply actions  

It's my speciality.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 12:48 PM CST up reply actions  

Hate?

I don’t hate everyone here. Is this your idea of a conversation?

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 22, 2012 6:13 PM CST up reply actions  

Is this yours?

"An invasion of armies can be resisted, but not an idea whose time has come." *Victor Hugo*

by K.S.B. on Jan 22, 2012 8:05 PM CST up reply actions  

Re-read the entire thread.

And tell me what you think.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 22, 2012 8:16 PM CST up reply actions  

How about I tell you what Jeff Sullivan thinks:
It’s possible that what’s at the heart of every single argument you get yourself into is the fact that you don’t understand how to use English. We are communicating in different languages, where the one we use is correct and decipherable, and the one you use is retarded.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 11:05 PM CST up reply actions  

I have (unfortunately) read the entire thread.

And you seem like a troll to me.

"An invasion of armies can be resisted, but not an idea whose time has come." *Victor Hugo*

by K.S.B. on Jan 22, 2012 11:07 PM CST up reply actions  

Ian Kinsler: 54 points.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 12:43 PM CST up reply actions  

Elvis Andrus: 0, yes, 0 points.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 12:45 PM CST up reply actions  

Again.

Irrelevant, but you’ve found a niche, so run with it.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 22, 2012 12:46 PM CST up reply actions  

I'll give you this: you're very, very persistent.

"An invasion of armies can be resisted, but not an idea whose time has come." *Victor Hugo*

by K.S.B. on Jan 22, 2012 1:51 PM CST up reply actions  

Mike Napoli, 2011: -15 points.

Damn, his 2011 stats are sexy.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 12:46 PM CST up reply actions  

That's good.

Get dumber.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 22, 2012 12:46 PM CST up reply actions  

Hey everyone...

….Snark can subtract!

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 22, 2012 12:47 PM CST up reply actions  

Beltre, 2011: 92 points.

HE CAN’T HIT ON THE ROAD, YOU GUYS.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 12:47 PM CST up reply actions  

KING.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 12:47 PM CST up reply actions  

Irrelevant.

But this has never stopped you before.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 22, 2012 12:45 PM CST up reply actions  

I'll give you this: you're very, very persistent

"An invasion of armies can be resisted, but not an idea whose time has come." *Victor Hugo*

by K.S.B. on Jan 22, 2012 1:52 PM CST up reply actions  

For the slow peoplee.

My point is that Hamilton’s road stats are elite by league wide standards. You don’t see this often in Rangers hitters.

If you weren’t so quick to be an asshole, you might understand my point.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 22, 2012 12:44 PM CST up reply actions  

He's played CF.

And he’s OPS-ed as high as 900.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 22, 2012 12:51 PM CST up reply actions  

He's not really a CF.

And his .900 or so road OPS was the year he won MVP, which was his only elite year as a player anyways.

by Giant Space Ants on Jan 22, 2012 12:55 PM CST up reply actions  

Here's the problem, though

He’s played some CF, but the team has generally tried to keep him out of CF because of the wear and tear on his body. Also, he’s not very good defensively in CF, and at an age where his defense is going to be dropping off. So long-term, he’s a LF or a RF, not a CF.

Secondly, he’s got two extreme outlier seasons, 2009 and 2010. In 2009, he was not a good hitter. In 2010, he was probably the best player in baseball. Otherwise, he’s been a very good player, but not in the category of elite.

I don’t think that, in 2013 and beyond, it is reasonable to expect 2010 level production from him. ZiPS thinks he’s a significant risk to fall off offensively, and to miss a lot of time, as he goes into his mid-30s.

That’s the issue here. If there was a level of confidence that he’d hit like 2010 — or even like 2011 — for the next 6-7 years while staying healthy, the Rangers would lock him up long-term.

by Adam J. Morris on Jan 22, 2012 12:55 PM CST up reply actions  

Fair enough.

Again, didn’t say I’d pay him. Just said it’s not as simple a decision as I expected it to be. I thought I’d see a Kinsler-esque split, but an 850 OPS from even a tolerable CF is elite territory.

Not saying you’re wrong. Just making myself clear.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 22, 2012 12:58 PM CST up reply actions  

SO MANY POP-UPS.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 1:05 PM CST up reply actions  

And he doesn't even run them out...

"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11

"Replace Ace? Done. Ace's was too long anyway." --Micah 1-17-12

by Atticus F on Jan 22, 2012 1:18 PM CST up reply actions  

SUCH BAD BODY LANGUAGE.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 1:19 PM CST up reply actions  

That shoulder shrug and bat drop as he is resigned to his fate...

"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11

"Replace Ace? Done. Ace's was too long anyway." --Micah 1-17-12

by Atticus F on Jan 22, 2012 1:20 PM CST up reply actions  

Shoulder shrugs and leisurely jaunts to first

are really 75% of what a contract valuation is.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:21 PM CST up reply actions  

Its the new market inefficiency.

"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11

"Replace Ace? Done. Ace's was too long anyway." --Micah 1-17-12

by Atticus F on Jan 22, 2012 1:48 PM CST up reply actions  

.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 1:05 PM CST up reply actions   2 recs

Nice

"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs

by JDT217 on Jan 22, 2012 1:28 PM CST up reply actions  

I'll give you this: you're very, very persistent.

"An invasion of armies can be resisted, but not an idea whose time has come." *Victor Hugo*

by K.S.B. on Jan 22, 2012 1:52 PM CST up reply actions  

Didn't say his splits weren't pronounced.

But how many other current Rangers consistently OPS 850+ on the road?

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 22, 2012 12:39 PM CST up reply actions  

Also...

….pitchers generally underperform in Arlington relative to everywhere else on earth.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 22, 2012 12:29 PM CST up reply actions  

(At least it's a dry heat.)

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 1:01 PM CST up reply actions  

dry balls

You gotta get up mighty muthafuckin' early in the mornin' to fuck with me - Wash

by AndrusImpersonator on Jan 22, 2012 1:01 PM CST up reply actions  

There's a cream for that.

"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11

"Replace Ace? Done. Ace's was too long anyway." --Micah 1-17-12

by Atticus F on Jan 22, 2012 1:49 PM CST up reply actions  

Those ballparks in Siberia are tiny, though.

Anybody could hit it out there.

Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.

"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.

by Aqua on Jan 22, 2012 1:00 PM CST up reply actions  

HEY YOU GUYS

DID YOU KNOW ITS HARD TO PITCH IN ARLINGTON?

THATS GOOD INFORMATION TO KNOW.

Defending Big D Check it out
Twitter
"You guys are talking about living forever like it’s a real thing, but I bust out a man shoving his head into a vagina, and it’s srs time?"
--iorange555 8/23/2011

by Josh Lile on Jan 22, 2012 3:57 PM CST up reply actions  

Fine, I'll give a real answer

Why are you looking at his splits to figure out what he’ll do for the Rangers? He plays for the Rangers now. We don’t need (awful) proxies to figure out if he is “elite” to figure out how he’ll be in a more neutral home park. He will still have those splits as a Ranger going forward. And the splits won’t really matter for anything then except for comparing him to players on different teams.

Figuring out what Hamilton will be in 2015 has nothing to do with splits.

by ab03 on Jan 22, 2012 1:16 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Agree with this

Much more important to evaluate potential decline versus environment since his environment would be more or less the same.

Maybe who is hitting around him could change things some, but not significantly.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:19 PM CST up reply actions  

Another thread ruined by attacks on a new guy

You gotta get up mighty muthafuckin' early in the mornin' to fuck with me - Wash

by AndrusImpersonator on Jan 22, 2012 12:51 PM CST reply actions  

You must've missed First Contact the other night.

Attempts to have a reasoned exchange with the alien entity were met first by incomprehension, and then by hostility.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 12:53 PM CST up reply actions  

Hostility?

I welcome everyone to read the thread and identify the source of hostility.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 22, 2012 12:54 PM CST up reply actions  

Havnt perused the threads closely the last week

But hell, I like you

You gotta get up mighty muthafuckin' early in the mornin' to fuck with me - Wash

by AndrusImpersonator on Jan 22, 2012 12:57 PM CST up reply actions  

What thread was this in?

How could I have missed this potential greatness?

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Jan 22, 2012 2:04 PM CST up reply actions  

I thought it was ruined by the new guy

Calling the smartest posters on the boards assholes and reducing the second or third most popular argument on the board to "I looked at [the wrong] splits.

Didn’t mind being called Yoda though.

by ab03 on Jan 22, 2012 1:03 PM CST via mobile up reply actions   1 recs

for some reason "smartest posters" made me giggle

just passing by…carry on

You gotta get up mighty muthafuckin' early in the mornin' to fuck with me - Wash

by AndrusImpersonator on Jan 22, 2012 1:05 PM CST up reply actions  

No offense

Josh is the smartest person in the room. AJM is sexiest.

by ab03 on Jan 22, 2012 1:07 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

AJM does not exude sex

more of a guy that cringes at the thought of anything besides missionary

You gotta get up mighty muthafuckin' early in the mornin' to fuck with me - Wash

by AndrusImpersonator on Jan 22, 2012 1:08 PM CST up reply actions  

Worth at least $15m/year alone

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:10 PM CST up reply actions  

Salary

There’s a lot more to salary than production on the field. While simplification is convenient, it doesn’t make you any smarter.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 22, 2012 1:11 PM CST up reply actions  

What is the breakdown of a salary? How is it split up?

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:12 PM CST up reply actions  

Abstain

Feel free to fire away at me for such a statement. Just wanted to toss that out there.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 22, 2012 1:13 PM CST up reply actions  

That's a Harvard word ;)

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:17 PM CST up reply actions  

Too true.

All too true.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 1:17 PM CST up reply actions  

Isn't there always?

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 1:19 PM CST up reply actions  

She was quite the wit.

‘If all the girls who attended the Yale prom were laid end to end, I wouldn’t be a bit surprised.’

Que sera, sera.

by scoop16 on Jan 22, 2012 1:20 PM CST up reply actions  

I ♥ her so very much.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 1:22 PM CST up reply actions  

Sounds like Napoli was there.

"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11

"Replace Ace? Done. Ace's was too long anyway." --Micah 1-17-12

by Atticus F on Jan 22, 2012 1:52 PM CST up reply actions  

A Night at the Roxbury...

"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11

"Replace Ace? Done. Ace's was too long anyway." --Micah 1-17-12

by Atticus F on Jan 22, 2012 2:01 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm actually curious what you think goes into

salary evaluations and their weight. Honest question.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:17 PM CST up reply actions  

I know.

I appreciate the curiosity, but not in the mood.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 22, 2012 1:19 PM CST up reply actions  

hahahaha

too tired to answer a valid question but not tired enough to post a stupid response. I really like you.

You gotta get up mighty muthafuckin' early in the mornin' to fuck with me - Wash

by AndrusImpersonator on Jan 22, 2012 1:21 PM CST up reply actions  

x

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:25 PM CST up reply actions   2 recs

hell yeah bro

everyone here is wrong all the time about everything. It should say something about LSB when the dude who runs it smashes marriages. TOMMY JUST SOLD HALF A MILLION BRAKE PAAAADDDSS!

You gotta get up mighty muthafuckin' early in the mornin' to fuck with me - Wash

by AndrusImpersonator on Jan 22, 2012 1:25 PM CST up reply actions  

And it's not tired.

It’s bored of the lack of stimulation. Hamilton’s home/road splits generated a worthless thread of blabbering.

Not the ideal environment for an even broader discussion.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 22, 2012 1:24 PM CST up reply actions  

carnal desires?

You gotta get up mighty muthafuckin' early in the mornin' to fuck with me - Wash

by AndrusImpersonator on Jan 22, 2012 1:28 PM CST up reply actions  

He's said elsewhere he enjoys being a contrarian.

And he proved, in the Baltimore exchange, that he was uninterested in engaging with counter-arguments in any serious way. So, at this point…

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 1:28 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm more disappointed that your arguments pretty much guaranteed...

Fielder goes to Baltimore.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 1:29 PM CST up reply actions  

I know, I know.

It was late, and I wasn’t considering the ramifications…

What sort of counter-jinx do I need to perform, do you figure?

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 1:30 PM CST up reply actions  

Use home/road splits to show how the Orioles would be the best environment for him.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 1:31 PM CST up reply actions  

Do I have to?

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 1:32 PM CST up reply actions  

Do you want a dynasty or not?

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 1:34 PM CST up reply actions  

Sigh.

It would be easier if Fielder had every played a game in Baltimore — but according to Baseball-Reference, he hasn’t.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 1:35 PM CST up reply actions  

WHAT?!

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:36 PM CST up reply actions  

INORITE?!

Fortunately, I have a better argument: Fielder’s 262 tOPS+ at Progressive Field, combined with their low salary burden going forward, has convinced me that PRINCE FIELDER WILL SIGN WITH THE CLEVELAND INDIANS.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 1:40 PM CST up reply actions  

But can they market him?

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:41 PM CST up reply actions  

GREAT BASEBALL TOWN, BENJI.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 1:43 PM CST up reply actions  

Pictures of him at Cedar Point

and I’m sold on your theory.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:44 PM CST up reply actions  

SOMEONE WITH PHOTOSHOP:

GET ON THIS STAT!

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 1:45 PM CST up reply actions  

The Baltimore Exchange

… sounds like some kind of grift.

Heavy is the head that eats the crayons...
LSB-Come for the baseball, stay for the Dirkatron raping!
"He’s a Ranger, we’re Rangers." -bigtill2002
"EVEN THE WNBA HAS THEIR FINALS DURING PRIMETIME." -hornedfrogs45

by bdk03a on Jan 22, 2012 1:32 PM CST up reply actions  

Heh. I like that.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 1:32 PM CST up reply actions  

x

using home/road splits as any real suggestion to the quality of hitter a player is, much less whether or not that player deserves whatever kind of contract extention because of those road/home splits…

well that’s really only blabbering to begin with so why would you get more back in return than you give in the first place.

There’s just not enough synergy in your comments I guess.

by elvis1isking on Jan 22, 2012 1:28 PM CST up reply actions  

If you're "bored of the lack of stimulation",

then answer the legitimate fucking question you were just asked.

"An invasion of armies can be resisted, but not an idea whose time has come." *Victor Hugo*

by K.S.B. on Jan 22, 2012 2:09 PM CST up reply actions  

I think he's gone.

Hopefully coming back though, that was fun for a bit.

by lost in space on Jan 22, 2012 2:12 PM CST up reply actions  

Smartest posters on the board being very subjective of course.

Depends on what area of expertise you find most useful. I will say, there are some very intelligent posters on here in regards to applying statistics in theoretical situations with no real practice in true implementation. If that is the area you put the most weight on, you are probably right. I would counter with philosophers, ivory towers, etc….

"Calmer than you are dude"

by Arlington Stadium Legend on Jan 22, 2012 2:10 PM CST up reply actions  

The root of so much ASL snark...

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 2:11 PM CST up reply actions  

And so misguided.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 2:11 PM CST up reply actions  

Why?

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 2:13 PM CST up reply actions  

Why not?

I complimented you. You took a pot shot at me.

"Calmer than you are dude"

by Arlington Stadium Legend on Jan 22, 2012 2:13 PM CST up reply actions  

You didn't compliment me.

I wasn’t even sure who you were talking about specifically, to be honest. But if

I would counter with philosophers, ivory towers, etc….
is supposed to be a compliment, you should work on your compliments.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 2:14 PM CST up reply actions  

Not to mention,
Smartest posters on the board being very subjective of course.

If you really were crediting my smarts — or anyone’s smarts — then you’d have to acknowledge someone with smarts would be smart enough to read the subtext here…

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 2:15 PM CST up reply actions  

Are there not other areas of expertise in the game?

I thoroughly enjoy reading your statistical stuff. Can you break down swing fundamentals or pitching mechanics? If you can, I retract my statement. If you can’t, then I was correct.

"Calmer than you are dude"

by Arlington Stadium Legend on Jan 22, 2012 2:17 PM CST up reply actions  

Seriously?

I’m not an expert statistician, and have never claimed to be one, no matter how much you thoroughly enjoy reading your statistical stuff. (Though given your criticisms of exactly the sort of statistical stuff I post in previous exchanges, I find this statement funny.)

I don’t claim to be Tom Tango, or MGL, or anyone like that.

I have some knowledge of swing fundamentals and pitching mechanics, yes, but I wouldn’t try to pass myself off as an expert on those any more than I’ve tried to pass myself off as an expert statistician. And I certainly don’t write off smarts about those aspects of the game as “subjective,” or critique them for not being theoretical or philosophical enough.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 2:21 PM CST up reply actions  

It was a backhanded compliment as I read it.

You are stating that their supreme intellect in statistical evaluation has zero impact in real world valuation and franchise decision making, which is just not true.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 2:14 PM CST up reply actions  

No.

I was saying as far as I know, no one on this board has implemented it personally.

"Calmer than you are dude"

by Arlington Stadium Legend on Jan 22, 2012 2:18 PM CST up reply actions  

how would you know if anyone has not been involved in applications

Of statistical or process improvement projects? If you are trying say that no one was has practical baseball application, then that can be used in any argument regarding baseball moves….

JD’s like, "you want some f*&#ing pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, b*#&hes!"- RCCook

LSB: "Oh s#*t, JD. You crazy!"

by laxtonto on Jan 22, 2012 2:48 PM CST up reply actions  

indeed

if even one of them had some experience melding quantitative and qualitative “data” in a field like public health, well then I might have some respect for them…

by Goyogringo on Jan 22, 2012 2:16 PM CST up reply actions  

I think I am going to let this one go....

JD’s like, "you want some f*&#ing pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, b*#&hes!"- RCCook

LSB: "Oh s#*t, JD. You crazy!"

by laxtonto on Jan 22, 2012 2:43 PM CST up reply actions  

You hardly ever post any sort of statistical analysis...

Mostly boobs. ;)

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 2:45 PM CST up reply actions  

I think you know the answer to that.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 2:51 PM CST up reply actions  

stats take a lot of time to

do correctly… boobs on the other hand are fine in all their own glorious and can be provided with little effort…

JD’s like, "you want some f*&#ing pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, b*#&hes!"- RCCook

LSB: "Oh s#*t, JD. You crazy!"

by laxtonto on Jan 22, 2012 2:52 PM CST up reply actions  

I think about it like this

If an expert in any given field tried to explain something to you, how long would it take you to figure out what is going on? And how quickly could you contribute something meaningful?

Having knowledge about something is useful and commendable but has nothing to do with smart.

by ab03 on Jan 22, 2012 3:48 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

I got on these folks' email list somehow.

They keep sending me links to their videos.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 1:26 PM CST up reply actions  

nope, just typical LSB bitchings, moanings, and attackings at opinioinings

You gotta get up mighty muthafuckin' early in the mornin' to fuck with me - Wash

by AndrusImpersonator on Jan 22, 2012 1:15 PM CST up reply actions  

gottaprovesomeonewrongontheinternet.jpeg

"God dammit TAG I swear to God if you keep this "It was a close play" shit up all night I will send you cookies made from my own shit" -River Fenix 8/26/2011

"this is a big reason I decided not to convert to Islam now if it was 72 skanks? Different story, my friend" Bob Loblaw 9/2/2011

by I am Neftali Feliz on Jan 22, 2012 1:16 PM CST up reply actions  

I dont even know what we're arguing about anymore

You gotta get up mighty muthafuckin' early in the mornin' to fuck with me - Wash

by AndrusImpersonator on Jan 22, 2012 1:17 PM CST up reply actions  

I blame Firebat.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 1:19 PM CST up reply actions  

Good call.

I see the argument didn’t improve while I had lunch.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 1:19 PM CST up reply actions  

yeah fuck it

so do I

You gotta get up mighty muthafuckin' early in the mornin' to fuck with me - Wash

by AndrusImpersonator on Jan 22, 2012 1:20 PM CST up reply actions  

I wish...

…..that were the case though. I would’ve really loved a new perspective on road stats from Rangers. Honestly.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 22, 2012 1:17 PM CST up reply actions  

Here's a perspective...

As a rule… players hit worse on the road. No matter who they play for.

Some parks are more friendly to hitters than others. RBiA is a hitter friendly park.

Hitting on the road isn’t a skill. Hitters are their skill level regardless of where they are.

Some hitters skills are more applicable to certain parks giving them stronger numbers in those parks.

As ab03 pointed out… looking at home / road splits to determine whether to retain a player in the EXACT same hitting environment provides no insight into their value.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 1:24 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Disagree

“looking at home / road splits to determine whether to retain a player in the EXACT same hitting environment provides no insight into their value.”

Generally speaking, if a Ranger OPS-es 950, he will request market value for a 950 OPS, which includes players that produce at that level in neutral environments. If I feel the aforementioned player is only capable of producing at that level in an extremely favorable environment, then in theory, I could replace that player with someone who is only capable of producing lesser stats in a less favorable environment.

Chances are, Kinsler isn’t going to request market value for his park adjusted performance. Therefore, his production away from the extremely favorable environment is very much a concern in any comprehensive analysis.

To put it another way, why pay Kinsler, when Sean Rodriguez could probably do the same thing at a fraction of the cost?

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 22, 2012 6:33 PM CST up reply actions  

Home/Road Splits

Let’s be frank about this. Yes, players across a massive sample produce slightly better at home. With this said, there is a very clear tendency in extreme environments.

Almost nobody hits better in SD at home. Almost nobody hits better away in Texas. Almost nobody hits better away in Colorado.

The slight tendency to hit better at home is a worthless indicator if you fail to acknowledge the extreme variance, and blatantly obvious correlations with extreme environments.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 22, 2012 6:39 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm aware of the extreme aspects.

I’m also aware that it isn’t how you judge a players true talent.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 6:47 PM CST up reply actions  

I know you are.

I know this by your level of discourse in every other context I’ve seen. You made an extreme point, and I used an extreme response. We both know there is a lot of “gray”.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 22, 2012 6:50 PM CST up reply actions  

Kinsler

And I’m not saying he isn’t as good a player away from Texas, because he very well might be. My only point is that his extreme splits is something that needs to be considered when making a decision worth tens of millions of dollars.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 22, 2012 6:52 PM CST up reply actions  

x

Heavy is the head that eats the crayons...
LSB-Come for the baseball, stay for the Dirkatron raping!
"He’s a Ranger, we’re Rangers." -bigtill2002
"EVEN THE WNBA HAS THEIR FINALS DURING PRIMETIME." -hornedfrogs45

by bdk03a on Jan 22, 2012 1:15 PM CST reply actions   2 recs

'the way he'll take that' I assume is what you meant

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.

by NothinG on Jan 22, 2012 1:22 PM CST up reply actions  

f'n shite

“no way he’ll take that”

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.

by NothinG on Jan 22, 2012 1:23 PM CST up reply actions  

I think it's clear that Hamilton is worth more to the Rangers

than to another team. He has history here, he is a fan favorite here. The Rangers know Josh Hamilton = butts in the seats. If I were Hamilton I wouldn’t necessarily expect more $$$ out of another team if the Rangers make him a reasonable offer.

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 1:26 PM CST up reply actions  

Wins put butts in the seat, not Hamilton or any other ONE player.

If he contributes to winning, then people will come. Hamilton is an everyday player, his impact on attendance is going to be negligible compared to even Cliff Lee, who, if he stuck around, would’ve seen a diminishing return on his attendance boost on his starts. I think Nolan Ryan towards the end of his HoF career was one of the few to break this rule, when he put oh, about 35,000 more people in the stands on his last starts.

I just summarily disagree with this whole concept that we should pay Hamilton more/he is worth more simply because he has been a Ranger.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:29 PM CST up reply actions  

My potential new GF went to a "scary church" today

because her good friends help run it. She told me she wasn’t religious at all. Now I’m scared. Need not get invested with another girl who will eventually try to convert me.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:33 PM CST up reply actions  

Agreed.

Might have the religious discussion a bit more in depth…

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:36 PM CST up reply actions  

"Scary Church"?

Are rattlesnakes involved?

"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11

"Replace Ace? Done. Ace's was too long anyway." --Micah 1-17-12

by Atticus F on Jan 22, 2012 1:55 PM CST up reply actions  

One of those "target the youth", hands in the air, have a shitty church rock band,

and completely brainwash people Generation Y churches.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 2:00 PM CST up reply actions  

Oh shit.

Don’t drink the Kool-Aid, man. That church is scarier than rattlesnake church.

"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11

"Replace Ace? Done. Ace's was too long anyway." --Micah 1-17-12

by Atticus F on Jan 22, 2012 2:02 PM CST up reply actions  

That's why I'm mortified.

I like this girl, but I’m not dealing with that mindless bullshit again.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 2:04 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah I'm not going to overthink it

But the “excited” part is what scared me.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 2:11 PM CST up reply actions  

YOU GON' GET ENSNARED.

I say this as someone who went through a really religious phase in high school.

"The Rangers system just happens to be stupid with depth." - Jason Parks, 7/14/11
2011-07-25 17:44:05 - benjihana: Ahh my backdoor!!!
"It appears I made a mistake. I did not know what pegged meant" - Schultzy, 11/13/11

by vfn on Jan 22, 2012 2:32 PM CST up reply actions  

yep

winning is what does puts butts in the seats.

Contracts should not be given based on general fan approval. That’s not a good process in making smart baseball decisions.

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.

by NothinG on Jan 22, 2012 1:31 PM CST up reply actions  

Darvish will put "butts in seats"

You gotta get up mighty muthafuckin' early in the mornin' to fuck with me - Wash

by AndrusImpersonator on Jan 22, 2012 1:34 PM CST up reply actions  

For a while he will.

But if we aren’t winning in years 2-5/6 then he won’t.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:35 PM CST up reply actions  

I suspect if he's pitching at an Ace level

That he’ll always provide at least some bump on days he pitches.

Kind of like the Kings Court in Seattle.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 1:37 PM CST up reply actions  

I, for one, welcome our new naked sexy Ace overlord.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:39 PM CST up reply actions  

I agree with this

But the loss in general attendance due to losing will greatly outweigh any bump from his pitch days, so to use that as an argument for Hamilton contract valuation is still grossly invalid, particularly being a position player, as opposed to a pitcher.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:40 PM CST up reply actions  

Re-signing Hamilton

won’t cause this “Holy crap, I’ve got to come see this Hamilton guy play” attendance boost.

That’s silly.

Nor will him leaving cause a significant amount of people not to show.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:35 PM CST up reply actions  

Don't be so sure.

Hamilton has a big following around here. It depends on how it is handled. If it is seen as the Rangers gave him a fair offer and he got more $$$ somewhere else then there likely will be minimal downside. On the other hand, if the Rangers go all CJ Wilson on him and don’t even make an offer? They will lose fans short term. Maybe only for a couple years but it will happen.

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 1:41 PM CST up reply actions  

I think the Rangers are much more interested in keeping Hamilton

Than they were C.J. Wilson.

I suspect the clubhouse and coaches prefer one over the other significantly.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 1:42 PM CST up reply actions  

Concur.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:43 PM CST up reply actions  

So if the Rangers are winning the division and are heading to the playoffs

but we “bungle” the Hamilton issue, then you are saying a significant amount of people will not come to games?

Again, that’s ridiculous.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:42 PM CST up reply actions  

You're putting up a strawman

which I never said. What I am saying is that if you took two parallel universes and both Rangers teams had the same number of wins, etc. but one of them bungles the Hamilton talks and the other is able to sign him to a reasonable contract then:

Yes, less butts will be in the seats.

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 1:51 PM CST up reply actions  

No, it's not a strawman.

I’m making a point as to the relevancy of the contract negotiations in stadium attendance. It is negligible. Not worth looking at. Wins and losses are the main seat drivers, with certain opponents being a secondary and promotions/events/inductions/etc being a tertiary driver.

Maybe a few hundred less idiots might go to a few games at the beginning of the season.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:55 PM CST up reply actions  

Well, if I were running a franchise

I would want those few hundred seats to be sold per game. If you’re willing to write that sort of thing off, then I guess that’s your call. I bet my franchise would be more successful than yours though. The best franchises don’t stay the best by ignoring the details.

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 2:04 PM CST up reply actions  

So if he isn't the best fit for the team financially and I didn't sign him

as BenjiGM because I felt his value added in those few hundred seats didn’t outweigh the potential value added using the money elsewhere, I am a failure as a GM.

My God, your team would be full of Pudge, MY, Gary Matthews Junior, Hank Blalock, Josh Hamilton, Marlon Byrd, and others.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 2:06 PM CST up reply actions  

Again, you are putting up a strawman

I never said that the Rangers should sign Hamilton for more than what they can financially afford or what makes good sense. I simply said that one of the FACTORS in determining what makes good financial sense is the marketability of the Rangers. That factor is higher here in Texas than it would be somewhere else. What’s the $$ amount? I don’t know, that would be up to JD and his staff.

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 2:13 PM CST up reply actions  

What if that value was $50?

That’s the point I’m trying to make. It has terribly little value. It’s like making welfare checks a major political argument given their GDP significance.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 2:16 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm glad you're not running my franchise, btw,

because that’s fucking ridiculous.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 2:06 PM CST up reply actions  

Translated

“I’d pay anything to make $1M”

by Jobu. on Jan 22, 2012 2:11 PM CST up reply actions  

Your translation is about as good

as when I try to translate a Darvish tweet on Google.

You guys are really on the strawman bandwagon today. Never said I would pay anything, I simply said that GOOD franchises pay attention to the details.

It’s amazing, you guys will argue all day long over fWAR and deride anyone who comes on and tries to make an argument based on W/L record of a pitcher or simple ERA yet somehow you think that running a complicated business like the Texas Rangers comes down to just the W/L record.

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 2:15 PM CST up reply actions  

Who's "you guys"?

I’ve asked you specific questions, and pointed out the examples of Alex Rodriguez and Ivan Rodriguez, and you haven’t responded.

Those aren’t scarecrows.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 2:16 PM CST up reply actions  

If you sell 300 extra seats at $30 per for 82 home games

That’s $738,000. You’re right that it’s not nothing money, but when you’re deciding whether to stick to your $70M offer or outbid your opponents and agree to give $100M + for him, it’s not worth pointing out that he’d sell a few extra tickets.

If you just meant that’s one tiny factor that should be 1% of the consideration, then I apologize.

by Jobu. on Jan 22, 2012 2:21 PM CST up reply actions  

What I'm saying is that

if the front office says Hamilton adds $738k (or whatever the number is) per year based on his inherent marketability and the pure WAR calculation of onfield performance pegs him at say 4/&65 then I think it is reasonable to consider that Hamilton’s true worth to the franchise is about $69-70 million over those 4 years.

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 2:31 PM CST up reply actions  

You don't think another team would recognize

the same level of marketability, if not more?

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 2:32 PM CST up reply actions  

I think it depends.

If you have a team with no star power on it and they add Hamilton then perhaps that team sees a larger effect. If you add Hamilton to the Yankees then I would think there is minimal effect. If you take a similar team to the Rangers as far as winning percentage and fan base, then I think Hamilton would be worth more here because he has history here.

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 2:38 PM CST up reply actions  

I find that the majority who use the "strawman"

defense typically either a) have no idea what it is or b) are just terrible at reacting to valid counter-points.

Don’t peg me in with the stats only crowd, because my arguments to you this entire time have been based on business valuation principles, not sole WAR-based valuation.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 2:22 PM CST up reply actions  

You've got to be a troll.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 2:34 PM CST up reply actions  

No, if you look at your responses to me

At least 2-3 have been strawman arguments.

Just because you don’t like that doesn’t make me a troll.

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 2:36 PM CST up reply actions  

You really don't seem to have a firm grasp on what the word "troll" means.

Nor do you seem to understand what I straw man argument is.

"An invasion of armies can be resisted, but not an idea whose time has come." *Victor Hugo*

by K.S.B. on Jan 22, 2012 6:00 PM CST up reply actions  

I would want to fill those seats, too.

I just think there are most cost effective ways of doing so than overpaying Hamilton.

by AsDevilsRun on Jan 22, 2012 2:17 PM CST up reply actions  

Exactly.

People forget VERY quickly and just focus on winning/losing.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:43 PM CST up reply actions  

x
On the other hand, if the Rangers go all CJ Wilson on him and don’t even make an offer? They will lose fans short term.

I don’t imagine the number of fans “lost” because of that will be significant enough to be noticeable. Also, any fans who pull that shit should collectively choke on a fat bag of dicks.

by LiamP on Jan 22, 2012 1:44 PM CST up reply actions  

Well, I didn't want to come outright and say that last part...

…but yes, you are fans of a team, not one player. This isn’t the Texas Josh Hamiltons.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:45 PM CST up reply actions  

You might be a fan of the team

Doesn’t mean the other fans in the metroplex are.

As a team, your job is to appeal to the greatest number of fans possible to get them to come watch a game. Some of those fans come because they like a specific player.

Telling those people to go choke on a fat bag of dicks might not be the best marketing campaign.

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 1:53 PM CST up reply actions  

I'd rather the Front Office

tell Hamilton and those fans to go choke on a fat bag of dicks, than to tell the W/L record to go choke on a fat bag of dicks, IF those are the two options we’re being presented with.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:56 PM CST up reply actions  

Why are they mutually exclusive?

You seem to be wanting to turn this into an either/or argument, which it obviously isn’t.

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 2:05 PM CST up reply actions  

You are greatly overvaluing Hamilton's non-baseball component of contract

valuation. That is all. Excessively.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 2:08 PM CST up reply actions  

How do you know it has been excessive?

The only number I recall throwing out there was 4/65 for him. Is that somehow excessive to you?

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 2:34 PM CST up reply actions  

x
As a team, your job is to appeal to the greatest number of fans possible to get them to come watch a game.

As a team, your job is to win games.

Some of those fans come because they like a specific player.

Yeah, those are totally the people I want my front office catering to.

Telling those people to go choke on a fat bag of dicks might not be the best marketing campaign.

I don’t represent the marketing department of the Texas Rangers.

by LiamP on Jan 22, 2012 2:03 PM CST up reply actions  

Sorry, wrong.

As a team, your job is to MAKE MONEY. Winning games is one way (and the most important way) to get people to buy your tickets or advertisers to pay for signage in your park or for FSSW to give you eleventy billion dollars so they can broadcast your games on TV.

Don’t fall into the trap of thinking that MLB owners buy teams so they can win games. They buy teams to make money.

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 2:06 PM CST up reply actions  

Owners already have money...

They just don’t want to LOSE money.

There are much much much easier ways of making money than owning a baseball team.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 2:08 PM CST up reply actions  

Just curious

What exactly are those ways?

This is speaking about a hundred of million dollar investment….

by Requiem on Jan 22, 2012 5:52 PM CST up reply actions  

Than a ML team?

Almost anything.

But generally speaking… a hedge fund would be a much better use of your money.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 6:48 PM CST up reply actions  

Is there any evidence that just the presence of certain players,

setting aside individual benchmarks (à la Bonds) and the team’s performance, increases attendance?

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 2:08 PM CST up reply actions  

Heh
They buy teams to make money.

Nope. Most owners only make money on their eventual disposition of the team.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 2:08 PM CST up reply actions  

Exactly.

That’s like saying I’m buying a stock to make a living off of the dividends.

I’m making my living off of selling that bitch at a higher price then when I bought it.

"I don't really like pitchers." - Nelson Cruz

by AceJC on Jan 22, 2012 2:10 PM CST up reply actions  

What determines the value of a franchise?

Are you suggesting that a franchise in Bumfuck Egypt with a 100-0 W/L record is worth more than the New York Yankees with a 75-25 record?

Of course not. If you said that you’d be a moron.

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 2:17 PM CST up reply actions  

Quit using a strawman argument

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 2:26 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

abstain

"I don't really like pitchers." - Nelson Cruz

by AceJC on Jan 22, 2012 2:27 PM CST up reply actions  

Well, it seems to be the rule around here

Just trying to fit in.

So does that mean you don’t understand the meaning of strawman or that you don’t have a valid response to my counterpoint?

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 2:35 PM CST up reply actions  

You're a silly man.

I’m done with you – football is on :)

Can’t fix stupid!

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 2:36 PM CST up reply actions  

Just remember

to root for the team and not an individual player. :)

Are you seriously suggesting that the Rangers, don’t look at every possible detail for how to get the most $$$ out of their product?

If you are, I just can’t help you there man.

Enjoy the game!

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 2:46 PM CST up reply actions  

I will say it:

I don’t think the Rangers consider whether the fans will be upset in their determination of who to sign or not sign. I think it plays no role.

"An invasion of armies can be resisted, but not an idea whose time has come." *Victor Hugo*

by K.S.B. on Jan 22, 2012 6:01 PM CST up reply actions  

x
As a team, your job is to MAKE MONEY. Winning games is one way (and the most important way) to get people to buy your tickets or advertisers to pay for signage in your park or for FSSW to give you eleventy billion dollars so they can broadcast your games on TV.

Winning games is by far the most important factor in getting fans to invest in your team. This is especially true for (non-Cowboys) teams in our area. Happily, this coincides with the core goal of a baseball front office, which is in fact winning games. If the Rangers choose not to re-sign Hamilton, it will be because they feel like the money will be better served being invested elsewhere, and the team will benefit either in the short or long-term as a result. The marketing impact will be considered but will not be anywhere near as important as the potential impact on the team’s success.


Don’t fall into the trap of thinking that MLB owners buy teams so they can win games. They buy teams to make money.

Thanks. Having been born yesterday on the back of a turnip truck, I had no absolutely no idea how sports ownership worked.

by LiamP on Jan 22, 2012 2:16 PM CST up reply actions   2 recs

Well, then why did you reply to my statement

and then say “As a team, your job is to win games.”?

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 2:19 PM CST up reply actions  

...

Because you said a team’s job is to appeal to the greatest number of fans etc. That’s not their job; their job is to win games. This isn’t even a chicken and egg situation…everything else stems from winning.

by LiamP on Jan 22, 2012 2:21 PM CST up reply actions  

A team's job IS to appeal to the greatest number of fans

because that means they get the greatest number of $$$ from those fans. You are correct in saying that the primary driver of that popularity is winning, but that doesn’t mean winning is the only goal. It is the primary driver of the main goal, which is $$$.

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 2:47 PM CST up reply actions  

give up the act bro,
A team’s job IS to appeal to the greatest number of fans

you look and sound like an ass by this. Clearly you must be under the age of 10.

The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ

by NYTXFAN on Jan 22, 2012 2:51 PM CST up reply actions  

Liam said he replied to me

because I said a team’s job was to appeal to the greatest number of fans. It sounds like he thinks the team’s job is to win games. My point is, both are correct but the end goal is to appeal to fans, thus generating dollars. Wins is the major factor in this, but not the only one. How exactly does that make me a 9 year old ass?

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 3:38 PM CST up reply actions  

Both are not correct.

Winning is the end goal. This appeals to fans. Not the player.

Im pretty sure the best way to generate dollars is by fielding a winning team. Its not the players star power that will be the bigger source of generating dollars.

The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ

by NYTXFAN on Jan 22, 2012 9:39 PM CST up reply actions  

Its not the players star power that will be the bigger source of generating dollars.

To clairfy more on this. The players star power yes may generate money and be the main source on teams that dont field wins. Yes maybe you are right there.

However, not when the team is this good. Losing Hammy will not lose this team money.

The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ

by NYTXFAN on Jan 22, 2012 9:41 PM CST up reply actions  

Well. For some unenlightened people...

Josh Hamilton is the Texas Rangers. If Hamilton walks, there will be immediate wailing and gnashing of teeth amongst the fair weather uninformed element of fandom. There will be a momentary impact, but then someone else (Yu?) will capture their hearts and minds and they will keep coming. Especially if we keep raising flags in CF.

"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11

"Replace Ace? Done. Ace's was too long anyway." --Micah 1-17-12

by Atticus F on Jan 22, 2012 1:59 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm not saying that idiots wouldn't bellow. We have a man (perhaps not an idiot)

speaking on their behalf presently on this board. But the same thing that makes them unenlightened fools makes their capacity to grasp onto another mindless “love factor” very simple (as you stated).

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 2:01 PM CST up reply actions  

I think it's a mistake to think that all the Hamilton fans

are idiots. I think Jerrah made the same mistake when he botched the Tom Landry firing. There are many many fans who STILL will not watch the Cowboys because of that.

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 2:08 PM CST up reply actions  

Using the Cowboys as an example of a team that

has lost marketing appeal is a method for a quick and decisive loss, sir.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 2:09 PM CST up reply actions  

x
There are many many fans who STILL will not watch the Cowboys because of that.

Yeah, I’m sure Jerry’s real broke up about them folks.

by LiamP on Jan 22, 2012 2:17 PM CST up reply actions  

I would hate to see him leave.

But won’t miss him for a Werth like price.

by casew on Jan 22, 2012 2:03 PM CST up reply actions  

That is how I feel.

I love the guy. I would hate to see him mashing in another uniform. I would also hate to see him crater in year 2 or 3 of a mega-deal and paralyze our financial flexibility.

Remember Rusty Greer? Another fan favorite who was quite productive and clutch and gritty ran into walls, etc. They gave him a healthy extension in 2001 and he dropped off a cliff the next year. This is what concerns me with Josh.

"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11

"Replace Ace? Done. Ace's was too long anyway." --Micah 1-17-12

by Atticus F on Jan 22, 2012 2:10 PM CST up reply actions  

OT threads are a gold mine.

"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11

"Replace Ace? Done. Ace's was too long anyway." --Micah 1-17-12

by Atticus F on Jan 22, 2012 2:15 PM CST up reply actions  

I know. I was even there when she posted it.

Never thought of it that way. Good times.

"I don't really like pitchers." - Nelson Cruz

by AceJC on Jan 22, 2012 2:17 PM CST up reply actions  

Just seizing the rare opportunity for the literal TWSS.

Though technically, that’s what she wrote. So maybe not so literal.
Damn.
Judges?

by other_shoe on Jan 22, 2012 2:26 PM CST up reply actions  

6/10

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 2:26 PM CST up reply actions  

(Would've been 7, even 7.5

if you’d take out the “is”)

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 2:27 PM CST up reply actions  

(And capitalized.)

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 2:29 PM CST up reply actions  

Hey, 6/10 ain't bad!

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 2:32 PM CST up reply actions  

No, 2 out of 3 ain't bad

/Meatloaf

"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11

"Replace Ace? Done. Ace's was too long anyway." --Micah 1-17-12

by Atticus F on Jan 22, 2012 4:08 PM CST up reply actions  

is the bag itself fat or are the dicks themselves fat?

You gotta get up mighty muthafuckin' early in the mornin' to fuck with me - Wash

by AndrusImpersonator on Jan 22, 2012 1:48 PM CST up reply actions  

The way he used it, fat modifies the bag.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 1:48 PM CST up reply actions  

But he didn't modify dicks, so they could be fat.

We just don’t know.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:49 PM CST up reply actions  

Bag of *****

Louis CK?

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 22, 2012 7:00 PM CST up reply actions  

Not sure Louis CK ever said anything

about a bag of asterisks.

"It’s Advil and beef in the Texas Rangers, you yankee bastard."
- Nolan Ryan

by Flynnyrd on Jan 22, 2012 7:39 PM CST up reply actions  

The big question is whether we'll be able to get the hottest christian bands to play post-game concerts in Hammy's absence.

"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs

by JDT217 on Jan 22, 2012 1:46 PM CST up reply actions  

MERCY ME!

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 1:46 PM CST up reply actions  

ugh, god damn they are awful

You gotta get up mighty muthafuckin' early in the mornin' to fuck with me - Wash

by AndrusImpersonator on Jan 22, 2012 1:48 PM CST up reply actions  

Your choice of words here amuses me.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:49 PM CST up reply actions  

Didn't say we should pay him more than he is worth

What I said was that if the Rangers make him a reasonable offer, he has to take into account that he is worth more to the Rangers than to another team right now.

I agree that wins put butts in the seats, but you cannot deny that people come to the park to see Josh Hamilton, regardless of if the team wins or loses that day. The guy gets a standing ovation at practically every at bat.

There is marketability value in Hamilton, moreso than whatever he contributes to the win column. The Rangers brass know that.

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 1:39 PM CST up reply actions  

You're saying that his marketability should be a great determining factor in his contract

than his on-field performance and contributions to winning?

That’s silly.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:41 PM CST up reply actions  

greater*

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:41 PM CST up reply actions  

No, where did I say that?

I said it was A factor. Not a greater factor. Obviously on the field production is the primary driver. There are also other factors, including marketability.

Put it this way, if both players produce the exact same numbers on the field, who is worth more to an organization, Josh Hamilton or Milton Bradley?

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 1:45 PM CST up reply actions  

Not fair

Because if Bradley produced as Hamilton produced then he would have near Hamilton-love status.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:47 PM CST up reply actions  

Fans love a winner, baby.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:57 PM CST up reply actions  

Fans will tolerate bad personalities in exchange for great play

Doesn’t mean they love them. It also doesn’t mean they will come out to see those players just as much as a player who has a backstory like Hamilton’s. This is a player who is the face of the franchise right now. Hamilton’s “love status” goes beyond his home run totals. If you can’t see that, I can’t help you.

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 2:08 PM CST up reply actions  

How much do you think Hamilton is worth to the club, per year,

in dollars, based solely on the number of people who attend games who would not if he weren’t a Ranger?

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 2:10 PM CST up reply actions  

Abstain

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 2:13 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Heh.

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 2:14 PM CST up reply actions  

Oh...about...$35,000

"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11

"Replace Ace? Done. Ace's was too long anyway." --Micah 1-17-12

by Atticus F on Jan 22, 2012 2:23 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't know.

That would be a question for someone who knows the inner financials of the Rangers and who gets paid to do projections EXACTLY like this. Don’t fool yourself and think that JD does not get a presentation in a meeting when considering signing players that forecasts the impact of said signing (or letting a player walk) on attendance, sales, marketing, etc.

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 2:24 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm not fooling myself, or anyone else.

You’ve answered the question, and that tells me what I need to know.

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 2:26 PM CST up reply actions  

No response to what?

You said “I don’t know.” How am I supposed to respond to that?

This is another version of:

Person A: “I believe X.”

Person B: “I don’t see why X should necessarily be the case. What evidence to you have to support X?”

Person A: “I don’t know. Where is the evidence that X isn’t true? HA!”

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 2:58 PM CST up reply actions  

My point is simply

that there is a monetary value of the persona and marketability of Josh Hamilton to the Rangers. I am not in a position to say a specific dollar amount because I have no clue about the inner financial statements of the Rangers. No one does, unless you happen to work in the front office.

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 3:40 PM CST up reply actions  

Your last sentence just affirms my point.

You don’t know how much monetary value Hamilton has beyond his production on the field, but you’re claiming that

if the Rangers make him a reasonable offer, he has to take into account that he is worth more to the Rangers than to another team right now.

You’ve offered no evidence that this is true, and your response to those who have questioned its truth has basically been to ask for evidence that it’s not true, and to ignore the examples that have been thrown out there as possibilities.

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 3:43 PM CST up reply actions  

The only proof I have

(and it is anecdotal) is the fanhood (fandom?) of my wife. She has been following the Rangers for the last 3-4 years, since we first bought our season seats. She follows the team because of the players. She is interested in seeing each player do well. Obviously as the team does well she enjoys that too, but she doesn’t necessarily automatically root for a guy just because he puts on a Rangers uni. CJ was an example. She wanted him to do well because if he did well, then the team did well. She didn’t care one whit when CJ left because she thought CJ was a douchebag.

When we talk about the Josh contract situation, she actually gets upset about the thought of him leaving. He is her favorite player on the Rangers and it has just as much to do with his story off the field than his production on it.

I think there are thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of Ranger fans who feel the same way and would be very hurt to see Josh go.

If Josh leaves and it is seen as the Rangers brass not caring or offering him a reasonable contract then I think that will have some effect on the amount of money those people are willing to spend on Rangers gear, tickets, etc.

I am not suggesting that this be the only factor in his negotiations or even a primary factor. Benji said it was ZERO factor. I disagree.

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 3:46 PM CST up reply actions  

What makes you comfortable saying that your wife is representative of "thousands, if not hundreds of thousands" of other fans?

Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.

"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.

by Aqua on Jan 22, 2012 3:48 PM CST up reply actions  

Because she's a chick

And chicks who follow sports don’t have the same priorities as guys who follow sports, as a general rule.

Last I checked there were a few million women in D/FW, surely a few thousand of them are Rangers fans and love Josh Hamilton. There were at least a thousand of them at Fan Fest on Saturday…

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 3:50 PM CST up reply actions  

And how many of them

would not attend Rangers games if Hamilton walks, who are attending Rangers games now?

Does you wife go to games? Would she stop going if Hamilton left?

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 3:51 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't know if she would stop going

but I think it would definitely put a damper on her enthusiasm for the Rangers.

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 3:52 PM CST up reply actions  

How would that translate

into effect on the Rangers’ bottom line?

How would the Rangers know (or care) that her enthusiasm is dampened, and would they think it was worth that to let Hamilton walk in order to increase her enthusiasm by, say, acquiring players to help them continue to win?

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 3:53 PM CST up reply actions  

The conversation was about paid tickets.

Because that translates directly into money.

Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.

"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.

by Aqua on Jan 22, 2012 3:53 PM CST up reply actions  

Ticket sales are one part but isn't TV money a bigger part?

If the ratings for the Rangers goes down because the fanbase is somehow soured by a bad bungle of a contract negotation for the face of the franchise, does that not affect the bottom line as well?

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 3:59 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't think Fox can pull out now,

do you?

And how much of an impact on ratings are we talking? How would it be detectable? Would local folks just stop watching games because Hamilton was no longer with the team? Would Fox or TBS or ESPN or whatever not show the Rangers nationally just because he left?

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 4:01 PM CST up reply actions  

TV money is already set in stone for the next few years.

And it would only get better from this point on, if anything.*

*Assuming continued success. I highly, highly doubt Josh Hamilton’s name came up in the last round of negotiations.

Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.

"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.

by Aqua on Jan 22, 2012 4:01 PM CST up reply actions  

How much is the TV deal for?

Perseverance isn't just the willingness to work hard. It's that, plus the willingness to be stubborn about your own belief in yourself."
---Merlin Olsen

by Schultzy on Jan 22, 2012 4:04 PM CST up reply actions  

Between 1.6 and 3+ billion,

depending on who’s reporting on it.

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 4:04 PM CST up reply actions  

Dollars, obviously.

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 4:04 PM CST up reply actions  

Okay thanks

For some reason I thought there had been some clarification on the amount recently

Perseverance isn't just the willingness to work hard. It's that, plus the willingness to be stubborn about your own belief in yourself."
---Merlin Olsen

by Schultzy on Jan 22, 2012 4:06 PM CST up reply actions  

There's been more debate on it.

More folks saying $3B. But there’s been no actual confirmation that I’ve seen.

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 4:07 PM CST up reply actions  

Yes, it is

That certainly doesn’t mean the Rangers don’t give a crap about what they put onto the field does it? That would be the ultimate “contract year” scenario.

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 4:42 PM CST up reply actions  

What?

You’re counteracting your own point here, since the only thing that would matter “on the field” would be wins and losses.

Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.

"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.

by Aqua on Jan 22, 2012 4:43 PM CST up reply actions  

Not what I meant

On the field is wins and losses yes. I was saying that the suggestion that the marketing value of the Rangers and TV ratings is unimportant because the TV money is guaranteed doesn’t really hold water because there is still pressure to put a good, marketable product out there for Fox to broadcast.

Probly could have phrased that better.

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 4:49 PM CST up reply actions  

Ok, so thousands

But hundreds of thousands?

Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.

"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.

by Aqua on Jan 22, 2012 3:51 PM CST up reply actions  

Well, I was extrapolating to the entire country

Maybe I overestimate the global reach of the Rangers…

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 3:53 PM CST up reply actions  

You're right: this is totally anecdotal.

Also, you don’t state whether you think your wife will stop going to ballgames if Hamilton walks.

Jorge C, on the other hand, tells the same story about Pudge Rodriguez, but notes that his equally upset wife did, in fact, buy tickets.

So while I can’t really disagree with the conclusion that there are

thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of Ranger fans who feel the same way and would be very hurt to see Josh go.
(although I’d go with thousands rather than hundreds of thousands), I can question whether that has significant enough impact on the Rangers’ bottom line so as to enter into their negotiations with Hamilton in any significant way.

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 3:50 PM CST up reply actions  

Sure, we could debate how significant the impact is

and you are most likely correct in that the impact is not large. My whole point with Benji is the his argument is that there is no effect at all and the only driver is wins. I disagree with that.

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 3:57 PM CST up reply actions  

We are debating the significance.

But I want to go beyond “the impact is not large.”

I want to find out why you think Benji is wrong.

Let me put it this way: if the effect is non-zero but quite small, then I would be inclined to accept Benji’s argument that it doesn’t enter into the Rangers’ negotiations with Hamilton — because the Rangers would know that rather than paying Hamilton a percentage of the revenue they make from him above-and-beyond his on-the-field performance, they could reap a greater ROI by putting that money somewhere else.

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 4:00 PM CST up reply actions  

Could they?

Let’s just use the $750K number for fun. Which would have more effect, paying Mike Olt $750k to play in the bigs or keeping Josh Hamilton?

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 4:02 PM CST up reply actions  

Put another way

Who has the greatest butt in seat potential:

Beltre + Mike Olt

or

Josh Hamilton?

I’m using Beltre as a general placeholder for Hamilton’s current salary and what type of player the Rangers might get back for what he currently makes.

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 4:05 PM CST up reply actions  

But it's not just BISAR.

If Olt’s production is worth more than $750,000, then who cares how many fans he brings in?

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 4:05 PM CST up reply actions  

Also,

I have no idea why Mike Olt is the example.

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 4:06 PM CST up reply actions  

Olt has never played above A ball.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 4:08 PM CST up reply actions  

But maybe he'll play first in 2012,

if Moreland tanks!

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 4:09 PM CST up reply actions  

Where is old Marcus these days?

I know he’s not with the Braves anymore.

Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.

"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.

by Aqua on Jan 22, 2012 4:11 PM CST up reply actions  

That doesn't really make sense, but OK.

I have to make a booze run. I’ll be back in a while.

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 4:08 PM CST up reply actions  

No, it's not just that

but you asked what the value to the team is of keeping Hamilton for his marketability vs using that money elsewhere.

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 4:09 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm talking about the extra money,

that you’re suggesting the Rangers pay Hamilton for his marketability.

Investing that money in another player doesn’t just yield return based on the butts in seats that player yields himself.

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 4:12 PM CST up reply actions  

This is like the opposite of actual evidence.

"An invasion of armies can be resisted, but not an idea whose time has come." *Victor Hugo*

by K.S.B. on Jan 22, 2012 6:04 PM CST up reply actions  

Oh God

This is what it’s going to be like when we don’t re-sign Hamilton, isn’t it?

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 2:10 PM CST up reply actions  

I think you're the blind one...

Fans say a lot of things… their actions rarely match the angst they verbally express.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 2:10 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm going to stop watching the NBA

because Lebron and Bosh signed with Miami

by Jobu. on Jan 22, 2012 2:15 PM CST up reply actions  

You shouldn't rule out the effect on the fans by keeping a guy like Hamilton

Much like with Young, there is a positive side-effect with the fans when you keep a fan favorite here. That doesn’t mean we should money-whip him, but it is okay to slightly overpay a player because of their off-the-field value that supplements their on-the-field value.

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Jan 22, 2012 1:53 PM CST up reply actions  

You don't think that's the case?

We’re not talking millions here, and I’m not sure exactly what the value would be, but I think there is at least a decent chunk of change that a guy like Hamilton adds to the team. And part of that value comes from being able to market the player years after he left. Guys like Nolan, Pudge, and even guys like Rusty Greer are still huge names for the metroplex and they were playing for Rangers teams that had a fraction of the success of the current group. The ultimate question though is just how much value that adds to the team. I just don’t accept that it has very little to no effect on the team’s bottom line to have an easily marketable player like Hamilton versus a guy who isn’t.

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Jan 22, 2012 2:17 PM CST up reply actions  

My point is that the Rangers let Rodriguez walk

when many, many, many fans were passionate about re-signing him. Is there any evidence that the Rangers’ decision hurt the club’s bottom line?

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 2:23 PM CST up reply actions  

Correct.

I thought my wife would drive to Arlington and cut off Hicks’s testicles with a butcher knife when Pudge was not re-signed. She spouted off vitriol like a drunken sailor and pouted for about a week. Then she bought tickets.

"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11

"Replace Ace? Done. Ace's was too long anyway." --Micah 1-17-12

by Atticus F on Jan 22, 2012 2:26 PM CST up reply actions  

They let Pudge walk

because the money he was looking for far IIRC surpassed any realistic positive effect he could have had on their bottom line. I’m not about to argue that the Rangers lost out on thousands and thousands of ticket sales as a result of Pudge not being here, but I do think there were likely a fair share who lost interest in going to games to watch a losing team with Einar Diaz at catcher instead of Pudge.

Still, he had a great 10 year run with the team and that is plenty to market a guy as a career Ranger. To this day, you’ll still see plenty of Pudge jerseys in the crowd. Again, the question becomes how much of an effect does this end up having and its near impossible to tell with all the variables at work. But I can’t buy into it having no effect on the bottom line. A marketable player will always be better than a non-marketable player, it just doesn’t always mean that its impossible to replace that potentially lose revenue.

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Jan 22, 2012 2:39 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm not arguing Pudge's tenure with the Rangers

had no effect on their bottom line.

I’m arguing that based on their attendance figures, there is little if any evidence that Rodriguez’s departure hurt the team’s bottom line.

The fact that there are still people in the crowd wearing his jersey seems to support my point: just because the player leaves doesn’t mean the fans he brought to the team abandon that team — even if they’re unhappy about the player leaving/the team not retaining his services.

(The fact that the Rangers are able to market him as a career Ranger, as well.)

I am not arguing that Josh Hamilton does not help the Rangers’ bottom line. I am asking for evidence that it’s worth paying Josh Hamilton more going forward because his leaving will hurt the team’s bottom line. I haven’t seen any. The most I’ve seen is a $738,000 estimate of Hamilton’s ARAAR (Attendance Revenue Added Above Replacement), which translates to about 21,000 BISAR (Butts in Seats Above Replacement) at the $35/seat number that matchst1ck and Pras have used.

I think there could be a discussion about whether adding exactly that amount of ARAAR into a new deal or extension for Hamilton makes any sense, financially, especially in light of what it could buy in terms of other players — but Aircooled doesn’t seem to want to have that conversation.

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 3:05 PM CST up reply actions  

Debating $738k is pointless isn't it?

What if the actual number is $2 million? What if it is $250k? My point is, why debate a specific number when no one in the debate is in any position to be confident in their number?

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 3:51 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm not debating the number.

I’m using it as a case-in-point. Make it $2M, and I’d still (a) want to see evidence for it; and (b) question the evidence that it enters into the Rangers’ negotiations with Hamilton.

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 3:53 PM CST up reply actions  

Well, no one could ever give you direct evidence

As I said, unless you are in the Rangers FO and actually see the calculations you could never prove it.

If it is $2m per year? That’s a little under 2% of their total payroll… I’d say that’s significant to them, wouldn’t you?

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 4:00 PM CST up reply actions  

x
As I said, unless you are in the Rangers FO and actually see the calculations you could never prove it.

This is the entire problem with this thread.

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by Josh Lile on Jan 22, 2012 4:02 PM CST up reply actions  

No.

I think $2 million is $24-25,000 per home game, or about 705 fans per home game, and I think the Rangers could figure out something better to do with, say, $1 million per year for the life of Hamilton’s next contract that would make more than $1M for them over that time.

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 4:03 PM CST up reply actions  

Good players, for example.

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 4:12 PM CST up reply actions  

This is not about specific players, Aircooled.

(And I think you realize that.) It’s about investing money in a way that translates to the best payoff for the team. Putting, say, $1M to work that way makes more sense to me than guaranteeing it to Hamilton in a contract purely because of his projected marketability.

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 5:14 PM CST up reply actions  

I know that

I was being Snarky.

However, the point is still there. If we are NOT talking about a huge sum of money (in relative terms) then you really can’t say that the Rangers would be better off spending that $1M on another player because $1M doesn’t buy a decent ballboy these days.

I think you have to compare apples to apples. If you let Hamilton walk rather than pay him say $17 million per year you have to decide if whoever you could bring in on the FA market would provide as much benefit to the franchise, both in terms of wins/losses as well as financial benefit, as Hamilton would for the same price.

My point is that Hamilton at $17 million per year for 4 years is probably going to give you more value than player X at $16 million per. You may disagree and that’s ok, we don’t have to agree on everything.

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 5:45 PM CST up reply actions  

It's not just about free agents.

And it’s definitely not about bringing someone in to replace Hamilton’s slot in the payroll.

Again, I’m not suggesting $1M pays a guy’s full salary. But to say that $1M doesn’t pay for a player is also incorrect; minimum salary, after all, is still in the 400Ks.

Which goes to my point: investing in young players who can provide multiples of surplus value is a good thing. Relatively few ballclubs contend by paying for exactly the number of wins they get; the most successful clubs tend to find ways to underpay. (Some clubs have no choice.)

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 6:00 PM CST up reply actions  

You could also spend that $1 million Aircoooled is allocating

to “financial benefits” on promotions or other non-player expenses that could increase revenues and/or wins. Indeed, you might spend much more of the supposed Hamilton salary on non-player expenses.

by other_shoe on Jan 22, 2012 6:05 PM CST up reply actions  

Yup.

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by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 6:11 PM CST up reply actions  

In addition

If you look at how the Rangers are operated overall, I think there is pretty good evidence that they pay a lot of attention to details. An example, two years ago the cupholder in front of my seat got broken during the season. I noticed it and informed my ticket rep that it was broken. It was fixed the next day. If the Rangers take a cupholder that seriously, don’t you think they would try to evaluate every angle possible on a player?

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 5:47 PM CST up reply actions  

Of course they do.

What does that do for your point?

Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.

"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.

by Aqua on Jan 22, 2012 5:51 PM CST up reply actions  

I believe it goes to refute the idea

That the Rangers FO would discount marketing value, jersey sales, etc. when determining a players value to the franchise as was suggested by Benji earlier

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 6:17 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

No, I'm sure they have an extremely good idea of what that number means to them

I just don’t think it’s anywhere close to what you think it is, and that they know that.

Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.

"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.

by Aqua on Jan 22, 2012 6:18 PM CST up reply actions  

You may well be right

But we are talking about the most popular player on the team, arguably one of the most popular in franchise history and the current face of the franchise. There is some intrinsic value in that. What the dollar number is, I don’t know.

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 6:26 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

When he is gone, we will get a new face of the franchise.

The people that think they care so much that they won’t go to games will still go. They’ll still buy jerseys. The difference will likely be negligible at best.*

*As long as the team wins.

Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.

"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.

by Aqua on Jan 22, 2012 6:27 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm not saying to pay the guy more just because he helps out the bottom line

I would like Hamilton to still be here for the next few years. I think he’s a great hitter who plays a position where there are no immediate high ceiling talents ready to step in. You’re just more likely to have to pay him more than he will be worth to keep him here. So if the preferred route is to keep Hamilton here, overpaying him because an easier pill to swallow since he is bringing in the added revenue on top of the value he brings with his on-the-field play.

There is a point where it no longer makes sense to overpay him, but I don’t think that it would be more than maybe a $5 million overpay.

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Jan 22, 2012 4:37 PM CST up reply actions  

I just summarily disagree with this.

I think you, to a small extent, and Aircooled (to a much greater extent), are vastly overvaluing a fan’s ability to “give a shit” past a few weeks or after being perceptually distracted by other, more important, factors such as winning.

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:58 PM CST up reply actions  

"Summarily disagree."

You’ve said that twice in this thread so far (I’m just now catching up). It is equally forceful to say “I just disagree with this.”

Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.

"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.

by Aqua on Jan 22, 2012 3:13 PM CST up reply actions  

What do the fucking Sumerians got to do with anything!

"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11

"Replace Ace? Done. Ace's was too long anyway." --Micah 1-17-12

by Atticus F on Jan 22, 2012 4:12 PM CST up reply actions  

See Twins, Minnesota

They paid to keep the most popular player and now they are saddled with so much payroll they can’t field a winning team when he broke down. The new park effect is already wearing off. No one gives two shits that Joe Mauer will be a Twin for life, in fact most Twins fans are pissed they did it.

@AdamLikesBeer If you are in Minneapolis I can tell you where to get a good brew.

by TargetField on Jan 22, 2012 2:06 PM CST up reply actions  

I wouldn't suggest to give Hamilton Werth money just to keep him here

But I think if the numbers are close, lets say an extra 5 million guaranteed over what the Rangers predict his value on the field being worth, I think you would eventually recoup at least a good chunk of it over the years whether its through increased ticket sales, increased merchandise sales, or whatever.

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Jan 22, 2012 2:21 PM CST up reply actions  

x
lets say an extra 5 million guaranteed over what the Rangers predict his value on the field being worth

An extra 5 million over that number might not even be close to enough.

by LiamP on Jan 22, 2012 2:22 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah, it might not be

and that’s why I don’t have any problem in the Rangers letting him go no matter how much the fans love him. But if the numbers are close, then I think its not much of an issue that he’ll be slightly overpaid.

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Jan 22, 2012 2:40 PM CST up reply actions  

Alex Rodriguez was supposed to put butts in seats, too.

How’d that work out?

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 1:32 PM CST up reply actions  

Sooooo snarky

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:33 PM CST up reply actions  

Coke potential = attendance boost

We should sign Charlie Sheen

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:36 PM CST up reply actions  

I enjoyed watching him in the field more.

I dunno, he just didn’t have a swing that did it for me. Very detailed, robotic, muscle-memory, all that kind of stuff. He wasn’t a guy that I wondered what he might do next.

Que sera, sera.

by scoop16 on Jan 22, 2012 1:40 PM CST up reply actions  

Oh, man.

As much as that season sucked, and as much as he’s not a guy I’d want to hang with, I enjoyed watching him play.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 1:41 PM CST up reply actions  

Do you worry at all about the swinging at pitches out of the strike zone thing?

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 1:41 PM CST up reply actions  

With Hamilton?

Naw, he’s fuckin’ Mantle. I’ll take the risk/reward.

Que sera, sera.

by scoop16 on Jan 22, 2012 1:43 PM CST up reply actions  

Boozing took the edge off.

"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs

by JDT217 on Jan 22, 2012 1:47 PM CST up reply actions  

Want a jaw-dropper?

Re-familiarize yourself with Randy Johnson’s age 35-38 seasons.

"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs

by JDT217 on Jan 22, 2012 1:49 PM CST up reply actions  

*panty-dropper

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 1:49 PM CST up reply actions  

Mantle's Top 10.

But Hamilton has that dynamic. I’m speaking as a fan more than anything else.

Que sera, sera.

by scoop16 on Jan 22, 2012 1:48 PM CST up reply actions  

He does have something special.

He is unbelievably good when he puts the ball in play.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 1:49 PM CST up reply actions  

5/$80, vesting option for a 6th year for 6/$96

Same deal Beltre got at the same age.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 1:53 PM CST up reply actions  

But if he wants Werth money...

That’s not even close.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 1:53 PM CST up reply actions  

I didn't get to watch Mantle play during his day.

But it seems to me, from what I’ve read/seen, it surprises me that you’d have found him exciting.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 1:51 PM CST up reply actions  

Oh man, Mantle had personality.

And jaw-dropping power from both sides. And disregard for his body on the field.

Que sera, sera.

by scoop16 on Jan 22, 2012 1:53 PM CST up reply actions  

I say this w/o ever seeing him.

Video footage and historical recollections.

Que sera, sera.

by scoop16 on Jan 22, 2012 1:55 PM CST up reply actions  

So it was Rodriguez's personality that got to you?

Because he had pretty jaw-dropping power with the Rangers, too, and he was pretty sweet to watch play shortstop.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 1:57 PM CST up reply actions  

I really enjoyed him on defense.

I’m sure the personality and losing had something to do with my feelings.

Mantle’s like Sinatra, James Brown, et al…By all accounts, a sight to be seen in his prime. I couldn’t miss a Bonds AB, never felt that w/ Arod.

Que sera, sera.

by scoop16 on Jan 22, 2012 2:00 PM CST up reply actions  

Huh.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 2:03 PM CST up reply actions  

I've found that this argument has no logical reasoning behind it

People just don’t like A-Rod and have found many reasons to justify to themselves why he wasn’t that special. Maybe its the contract or how he carried himself or whatever, but they just don’t like A-Rod.

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Jan 22, 2012 2:22 PM CST up reply actions  

He's very special.

An all-time great, I just didn’t find him dynamic to watch.

Que sera, sera.

by scoop16 on Jan 22, 2012 2:25 PM CST up reply actions  

Huh.

I think I would’ve really enjoyed watching Aaron at the plate live.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 2:28 PM CST up reply actions  

CS,B time.

On the 10th anniversary of the record breaker, they reenacted it. Brought Al Downing to the park and he threw some BP pitches to Hank. On about the 7th pitch he deposited it in the exact same spot.

And I was there, kinda cool.

Anyways, Aaron was a model of consistency, and I would have loved to see him play. But I don’t think he had that must-see type of presence.

Que sera, sera.

by scoop16 on Jan 22, 2012 2:34 PM CST up reply actions  

Could be.

I think I would’ve loved watching him play.

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 3:05 PM CST up reply actions  

that was cool.

"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz

"Baseball's all that's real" - JB

by Ryin A on Jan 22, 2012 5:18 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

home runs are exciting

and what he did was pretty amazing.

Hamilton is no MY

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.

by NothinG on Jan 22, 2012 1:37 PM CST up reply actions  

What constitutes a reasonable offer that Hamilton shouldn't turn down?

The logic that he’s worth more to the Rangers because of his fan support is faulty, but the assumption that he should use this logic to not go on the free agent market doesn’t make much sense either.

by Giant Space Ants on Jan 22, 2012 1:34 PM CST up reply actions  

15/350

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:34 PM CST up reply actions  

I would say 4 years $65 is pretty close to market value.

I doubt he would get significantly more than that on the open market.

Also don’t discount the fact that Hamilton has put down roots here, he is a big member of his church and that is a draw to stay here as well.

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 1:57 PM CST up reply actions  

Don't discount that the man wants to get paid.

Because this will probably be his only big pay day of his career.

"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver

by Brad on Jan 22, 2012 1:59 PM CST up reply actions  

it only takes one

seems like I read that around here recently…

by elvis1isking on Jan 22, 2012 2:01 PM CST up reply actions  

It doesn't seem like he wants the money for himself though

For a guy like him, 60 million is way more than he’ll need for him and his family to be comfortable and happy. But it looks like he wants to try and get as much money for his various charities. This makes me wonder if the Rangers could maybe work out a deal to keep him here at that price and establish some other charities and commit a large sum of money to those charities. Hamilton ultimately gets what he wants with the money going to a great cause and the Rangers likely are able to get some good tax benefits out of these donations.

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Jan 22, 2012 2:26 PM CST up reply actions  

He said that too

but I don’t know how much I buy into that being a major goal of his. I think thats more just part of the negotiation process to let the Rangers know he’s looking for a lot of money. This is all just a guess on my part though.

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Jan 22, 2012 2:41 PM CST up reply actions  

Agreed

He has already said this is a chance for him to set himself up to help the less fortunate, etc. I actually believe he will do those things. I think both sides want him to stay, whether or not they can agree I don’t know.

I do know that both sides will be very sad if he leaves.

by Aircooled on Jan 22, 2012 2:41 PM CST up reply actions  

heh.. small world.

Jon Heyman (CBS Sports) reports that the reason that the Rangers’ meeting with Fielder at the Four Seasons a week ago was leaked is that Pirates closer Joel Hanrahan was getting married at the hotel the same weekend, and various players and agents in attendance told others they’d seen Fielder, Boras, Ryan, and Daniels.

"Look if you want a journalist hire a UT grad. If you want a doctor you pick a Baylor grad. If you need a vet you see an Aggie grad. And if you need a pizza you call a Tech grad." -BUBacker
Beware of Trolls: b.pate, jonthefon, K.S.B., Panorama, Robert L. Bishop, TideNTexas

by Mike E on Jan 22, 2012 1:39 PM CST reply actions  

/ Mike E

Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.

by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 1:41 PM CST up reply actions  

I was posting my comment on it.. not the news of it.

Unless AJM has been speaking for me..heh.

"Look if you want a journalist hire a UT grad. If you want a doctor you pick a Baylor grad. If you need a vet you see an Aggie grad. And if you need a pizza you call a Tech grad." -BUBacker
Beware of Trolls: b.pate, jonthefon, K.S.B., Panorama, Robert L. Bishop, TideNTexas

by Mike E on Jan 22, 2012 1:48 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah

What is your view on this?

A burden should never be something out of your control.

by benjihana on Jan 22, 2012 1:50 PM CST up reply actions  

All he said was "heh...small world."

Which could have been done without regurgitating the entire news snippet.

Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.

"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.

by Aqua on Jan 22, 2012 3:16 PM CST up reply actions  

Multiple times.

Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.

"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.

by Aqua on Jan 22, 2012 3:15 PM CST up reply actions  

What a clusterfuck of a thread

after such an interesting one on Japanese pitch classifications.

by Goyogringo on Jan 22, 2012 8:23 PM CST reply actions  

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