Clay Davenport projects the Rangers to win 102 games in 2012
H/T to Scott Lucas
4 months ago
Adam J. Morris
504 comments
0 recs |
Email
PrintComments
Need the Sulu, "Oh My" jpeg/gif...
STAT
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Ryin A on Jan 22, 2012 2:28 PM CST via mobile reply actions
I don't subscribe to many celebs on FB
but he and Mike Tyson are gold.
"...out of the shadows of unprecedented success, the sun shines down upon this team waiting to thrill anew." - ghostofErikThompson
Taking his meds, I spoze.
"...out of the shadows of unprecedented success, the sun shines down upon this team waiting to thrill anew." - ghostofErikThompson
Baseball Prospectus guy.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Does he have his own system or is this just out of his ass?
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Ryin A on Jan 22, 2012 2:32 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
he helped found Baseball Prospectus out of his ass
and is really into forecasting – baseball and weather.
by Colonel Travis on Jan 22, 2012 2:51 PM CST up reply actions
Davenport
Yeah, he develops forecasting programs for NOAA- also the guy who came up with True Average.
"Those cocksuckers asking me if I thought we were gonna go up there and try to work his fuckin’ pitch count ‘cause he’s on three fuckin’ days rest…you know what I told those cocksuckers? He pitch ball, ball cross plate, we gonna knock the shit out of it."
- Wash
weird - he said 102 wins on the main page
then 103- 59 on the team page
by Colonel Travis on Jan 22, 2012 2:54 PM CST up reply actions
Thanks, gang.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Ryin A on Jan 22, 2012 2:54 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
He also projected the Rangers to give up the fewest runs.
And the Rays to finish 3rd with 85 wins.
I think something may be “messed up” with his calculations, to be polite.
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
Fewest in the AL...
Third fewest in MLB behind Philly and SF. I guess he is banking on Darvish being a badass and the rest of the Rangers’ young pitchers continuing to take steps forward.
"...Ron Washington is the Les Miles of MLB." - AJM
Click on the team.
You can see the projected stats. Darvish is a beast, and Colby Lewis is better than ever haha
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 2:33 PM CST up reply actions
He has a pretty goddamn good season for Feliz too
Just don't piss her off, otherwise she'll get all Dien Bien Phu up in your Boxer Rebellion - caknuck
btho Iowa State
Yeah, that pitching is pretty crazy in general.
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 2:52 PM CST up reply actions
I agree with his Rays projection.
Maybe not that low but I don’t think they crack 90 wins this season.
I also agree with how low he has the Tigers, and in general the AL Central.
Yu is ours
Why wouldn't they?
They’ve improved in all aspects from 2011.
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 2:51 PM CST up reply actions
I'm not a huge Hellickson believer
I think we will see significant regression from James Shields. And their offense is not good. Plus add in career years from weird players like Matt Joyce and Casey Kotchman.
They have a great front of the rotation but not much else IMO.
Yu is ours
How is the offense not good?
And what stat from Matt Joyce’s season in 2011 looks out of place? Also, it wasn’t a career year for Kotchman. He had a better season with the Angels a few years back.
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 2:58 PM CST up reply actions
You think Matt Joyce is likely to repeat 277/347/478???
I don’t. And Kotchman still performed better than you can reasonably expect.
I’m just not a believer and would be surprised to see them win 90. I’m going with 87 wins.
Yu is ours
As opposed to his career .259/.345/.482?
Yeah, I think he can repeat it without any trouble.
And the only thing Kotchman did better than expected was hit for average. He was hardly productive on offense.
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 3:06 PM CST up reply actions
Players that will regress
Helickson
Kotchman
Sheilds
Joyce (to a lesser extent)
And the bullpen
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Jan 22, 2012 3:11 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Kotchman's not on their team anymore is he?
Don’t they have Luke Scott and Carlos Pena now?
They have Pena
And I doubt he’ll be very good.
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Jan 22, 2012 3:15 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Why?
He just had a bounce back season on an awful team.
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 3:17 PM CST up reply actions
.225/357/.462 isn't exactly spectacular
Are you a Rays fan or something?
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Jan 22, 2012 6:47 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
It's not enough to win you 5 more games
And he is one year older…
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Jan 22, 2012 6:51 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
That contributes absolutely nothing to the initial argument that Pena supposedly won't be very good.
i tell the truth; i lie a lot
What more can I say?
I don’t think he’ll have a very nice season.
.770 OBP or less, IMO
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Jan 22, 2012 7:14 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
But why?
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 7:31 PM CST up reply actions
Well... .770 OBP would be a record.
Even Bonds and Ruth weren’t doing that.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Ogando's done it before
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
Heh
OPS*
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Jan 22, 2012 7:57 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I don't know
I don’t like him.
Why do you think he’ll do better?
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Jan 22, 2012 7:58 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Because he's been well above that 4 out of the past 5 seasons.
You’re just talking about of your ass.
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 8:11 PM CST up reply actions
I think he'll be a'right, somewhere between 2-3 fWAR
but do you think he’s an upgrade over Kotchman’s 2011?
i tell the truth; i lie a lot
Maybe not in fWAR
But definitely on offense. All Kotchman was was a bunch of empty BABIP, and that drove up his WAR.
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 8:29 PM CST up reply actions
So is defense.
I’d rather have a low average, high power/counting numbers 1b than Kotchman even if the defense isn’t quite as good.
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 8:41 PM CST up reply actions
I don't understand your point.
BABIP is a predictive measure. It doesn’t eliminate the fact that Kotchman produced a certain number of his runs (unsustainable or not) with his bat in 2011, which Pena will have to replace in order for the Rays to be better this year.
i tell the truth; i lie a lot
BABIP isn't just predictive.
You can easily attribute his high batting average in 2011 to it, no question. He had less than 50 runs and 50 RBI in 2011 in nearly a full season. Pena will have to be hurt for half the season to not accomplish that. He will be a major improvement in run production, although it may not show up in WAR.
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 8:57 PM CST up reply actions
I realize my arguments have been extremely crappy
But he’s being a little irrational.
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Jan 22, 2012 9:05 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I am just "Talking out of my a**"
But youre being a little irrational with your Rays predictions.
Your team is about the same, the other teams ate better.
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Jan 22, 2012 9:02 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Replacing Damon and Kotchman
With better hitters in Scott and Pena, having Moore for a full season over Davis or Niemann, and improving defense at catcher is not improving? Remember, even those these projections are garbage, they do project the same WARP for Texas and Tampa on offense. Take that for what it’s worth.
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 9:25 PM CST up reply actions
I don't see how Scott and Pena are anything more than marginal improvements over what Damon and Kotchman produced in 2011.
I see the areas where TB might improve to be Longoria being luckier than he was last year and Matt Moore (who might have his innings restricted).
i tell the truth; i lie a lot
Then there's Helickson, Sheilds and that Bullpen
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Jan 22, 2012 9:40 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Matt Moore pitched over 160 innings in 2011
What’s his limit going to be?
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 9:51 PM CST up reply actions
Maybe just that
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Jan 22, 2012 9:53 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Why would it be?
Hellickson was allowed to pitch 198 innings as a rookie last year.
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 10:06 PM CST up reply actions
Yes, I am.
I think it’s a solid bet that he’ll easily have more WAR than Moreland, anyway. He should be good for about 2.5 fWAR, and that’s not poor or anything.
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 7:30 PM CST up reply actions
MORE THAN MORELAND?!?!?
JUST GIVE HIM THE MVP ALREADY
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Jan 22, 2012 9:17 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
And then there's the fact that the Yankees and Bluejays have improved
And the Red Sox should be better.
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Jan 22, 2012 3:13 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
How on earth are the Red Sox better?
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 3:17 PM CST up reply actions
They should win more games
I they get less injurys and don’t have another collapse, they should be better
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Jan 22, 2012 6:44 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
We all know they were than a 90 win team
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Jan 22, 2012 6:45 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Better than*
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Jan 22, 2012 7:15 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
except they weren't.
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 7:32 PM CST up reply actions
...and they Rays weren't a 90 win team
(SNP: But they were)
The Red Sox are a 95+ win team. They should do that this year.
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Jan 22, 2012 7:59 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Are you being serious about them not being a 90 win team?
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 8:09 PM CST up reply actions
IMO they were more like an 86-88 win team
And benefited from the BoSox collapse and the Yankees not caring.
The Red Sox were the better team, they just collapsed.
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Jan 22, 2012 9:04 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Not sure how.
They lost Longoria for a month and their projected DH for a year. They were a very good team last season, and obviously better than 86-88 wins. I think the Rays/Rangers ALDS rivalry has gone to your head a little. It’s not October anymore. Try to be objective.
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 9:28 PM CST up reply actions
I haven't been taking that into account whatsoever
And I doubt Manny would have been much of a positive influence last year.
Y’all had a good team last year, you’ll have a good team in ‘12. Doesn’t change the fact that you’re probably a third place team, that wind about 84-87 games.
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Jan 22, 2012 9:44 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
84 wins is hardly good.
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 9:52 PM CST up reply actions
In that division it's passable
85+ would have been better
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Jan 22, 2012 9:53 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
FWIW, I hope y'all win 98 games, beat the crap out of NYY and BOS
And win win the East.
The Rays are by far my favorite AL East team
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Jan 22, 2012 9:52 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
They'll pick up a couple retreads and plug them into the bullpen
and they’ll shine like a dime up a goat’s ass.
So glad they won’t be getting comps for losing those types to FA.
They’ve made a killing doing that, haven’t they?
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Ryin A on Jan 22, 2012 3:16 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
In high school I worked on this framing crew...
some old, grizzled mother fucker used to say it all the time.
The Piskor brothers would always get in fights that would usually end with one of them hurling a hammer at the other.
^TRUTH^
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Ryin A on Jan 22, 2012 4:23 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I would think anything coming out of a goat's ass
would do anything but shine…
Joyce was basically on his career averages last season.
How does someone regress when they’re already at their average?
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 3:17 PM CST up reply actions
I dont expect much regression
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Jan 22, 2012 6:49 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Yeah
BABIP not extravagant, tons of line drives, decent amount of walks, manageable strikeouts
Just don't piss her off, otherwise she'll get all Dien Bien Phu up in your Boxer Rebellion - caknuck
btho Iowa State
Joyce's wOBA was right in line with his wOBAr two of the last three years, and well behind 2010.
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
I mean his 2011 wOBA was right in line with '11 and '09.
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
He actually projects 31 WARP from both teams.
But the difference comes in the pitching, and it’s 291 RAR for the Rays vs. 316.8 RAR for the Rangers.
Does that plus the division account for a 17 game difference in the standings? Something seems odd there.
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 2:57 PM CST up reply actions
Well, intuition usually is far more valuable than forecast systems, that's for sure.
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
Dat run differential!
Who is Clay Davenport?
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Ryin A on Jan 22, 2012 2:30 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Easy to recalculate if we get Fielder
Just add 60.
I'm not adding 60 for Fielder over Moreland/Napoli/Young.
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
I'm going to guess 40ish, but this is almost entirely annecdotal.
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
The pitching is what gets me.
He’s got Darvish as probably the favorite for ROY and maybe even CYA. Also, Nathan’s getting 42 saves.
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
And this WITHOUT Prince
102 wins sounds do-able with Prince. Without him, I expext about the same as last year.
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Jan 22, 2012 2:37 PM CST via mobile reply actions
I'd be pretty happy with .259/.324/.376 from gentry to go with goatfense
Just don't piss her off, otherwise she'll get all Dien Bien Phu up in your Boxer Rebellion - caknuck
btho Iowa State
Aside from Darvish and Feliz
His numbers look very similar to what I’d expect.
Angels too.
And Darvish and Feliz have that kind of talent…
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
I think his offensive numbers look fairly spot on
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
He has us second to the Yankees in runs scored.
Sounds about right.
If we sign Fielder though…
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
You (like fans are wont to do)
Are underestimating the potential for them to be worse than those numbers.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
You expect better from Napoli?
I doubt Young has a better year either.
I like where your mind is at.
How do you think he came up with Kirkman starting 8 games?
I’m also a little surprised to see him down on Harrison, I would think he’d do much better than that this year.
I guess it evens out though with his projection of Feliz, who I don’t expect to be anywhere near that good in his first year starting.
WARP does take defense into account too doesn't it?
I only ask because you would think if Gentry was getting that much playing time he’d have a higher WAR purely because of his defense…
I’m also surprised he doesn’t have anyone reaching 30HR this year. You would think with as many guys as we had reaching that mark last year, that we’d have at least one guy make it to that again.
The Harrison projection looks fair.
His FIP dropped by a point and a half, and his ERA was the same case. It’s the first time he’s had any success in the majors. I’m not surprised to see the projection not in the same realm of his 2011 performance.
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 3:13 PM CST up reply actions
Harrison because he was so much better than he's ever been before in the majors.
Feliz, I don’t think he will go forward.
Also, I think these projections are full of crap.
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 3:25 PM CST up reply actions
I actually think Harrison will out perform that projection.
I think the steps he took forward last year are sustainable. He was very consistent and it boiled down to him trusting his stuff and throwing strikes.
That said… I can completely understand why this model would regress him.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
now i agree with you on Harrison trending up
not trying to beat a dead horse but Feliz 3 yrs ago wasnt all that as a starter..so i dont see him all of a sudden being solid
Eh.
I think Harrison hit his ceiling in 2011. Maybe he can get there again in a future season, but it’s not something I’d expect from him year in and year out. He hadn’t pitched that well since AA in 2008.
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 3:28 PM CST up reply actions
Harrison has primarily been a starter for major league career
while CJ was a reliever for some time before he converter back to the starter’s role.
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 4:34 PM CST up reply actions
200 IP | 165 H | 65 R | 53 BB | 212 K | 18 HR
That’s a FIP of ~ 2.95
That would be made of several different kinds of fuckwin
Just don't piss her off, otherwise she'll get all Dien Bien Phu up in your Boxer Rebellion - caknuck
btho Iowa State
Never mind
Thought you might be someone I knew but you’re not.
A burden should never be something out of your control.
capps11?
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Ryin A on Jan 22, 2012 2:54 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
He's got the Angels giving up 39 more runs than they did last year?
The Rangers are going to give up 57 fewer runs?
Sure thing, hot shot.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
The Red Sox are giving up the same number of runs as the Rays and 34 less than the Yankees.
They can barely even fill out a 5 man rotation. He has Bard pitching out of his mind as a starter.
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 3:15 PM CST up reply actions
This takes me back to last spring...
When these types of forecasts came out about the Rangers allowing less runs in 2011 than they did in 2010…
And you lamented the lack of Cliff Lee.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
The interesting thing is...
…he used to be a big fan of BP and PECOTA.
But once he found out that Nate Silver was a Democrat, anything related to PECOTA became crap.
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 22, 2012 3:18 PM CST up reply actions 10 recs
Hahahahahahahaha
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
I'm being a tea party guy would explain so much
@AdamLikesBeer If you are in Minneapolis I can tell you where to get a good brew.
That was Freudian.
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 3:29 PM CST up reply actions
It's all the mother issues I have ;)
@AdamLikesBeer If you are in Minneapolis I can tell you where to get a good brew.
Why are you lying? I'm not a particular fan of any specific projection...nobody really knows...
but I do like looking at various sites for the Information Blender.
Silver is a smarmy little liberal pussy…that I will agree on.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
They had the Rangers giving up 626 runs or somesuch...I called bullshit...I was right.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
I was thinking of this:
It’s difficult to get a handle on runs scored/allowed projections because CAIRO seems to forecast a down year for offense.
Seriously, the Rangers lose Cliff Lee and are somehow going to give up 61 fewer runs in 2011?
Cliff Lee was nothing short of outstanding
when he was healthy in Texas.
Yeah, he got rocked in that first start v Baltimore but his world had been turned upside down (thought he was going to the Yankees) plus he had flown all night to get to Texas.
He was great for a month, hurt for a month, great for a month and then we saw greatness in the post-season.
I also happen to believe in the George Bailey Effect when it comes to pitchers as well. Lee pitching as deep as he did into games helped save the bully. He helped us in ways we didn’t realize.
The Rangers gave up 4.31 runs in the first half of the season and 4.16 runs in the second half of the season.
To say this team will not miss Cliff Lee in the regular season is simply foolish.
I don’t know where you got the 626 number. Perhaps CAIRO was still fluctuating… we only gave up 10 less runs in 2011.
We did not miss Cliff Lee.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Plus if we had Cliff Lee we probably wouldn't have gone after Darvish
much less sign Beltre.
by MikeEl on Jan 22, 2012 3:52 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Disagree
I don’t think Lee would have meant no Darvish.
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 22, 2012 3:53 PM CST up reply actions
We might still have gone after Darvish.
They’ve been on him for a long, long time and we still would have been losing CJ.
But we wouldn’t have Beltre.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
I'm really beginning to believe JW
is fading further away day by day as a Rangers fan.
by lost in space on Jan 22, 2012 3:53 PM CST up reply actions
Trolls can be fans?
@AdamLikesBeer If you are in Minneapolis I can tell you where to get a good brew.
Or if CJ had.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
I know, it's becoming very realistic this is his last year.
by lost in space on Jan 22, 2012 4:02 PM CST up reply actions
And it's a supreme fuck-up, if true.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
I don't see why an NL team would sign him to a long-term deal..
Dude’s gonna need the luxury of DH in order to stay healthy as he gets older, no?
If he leaves I hope it’s to an NL team bc it’d make me sad.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Ryin A on Jan 22, 2012 4:29 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I guess the Jayson Werth theory is in play.
Did you know Dick Schofield, the 80’s Angels SS, is Werth’s uncle?
Que sera, sera.
Fucking Nats.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Ryin A on Jan 22, 2012 4:44 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I do look forward to watching them once Harper comes up.
If they get Fielder, that middle of the order and Strasburg will be fun.
Que sera, sera.
There's talk of him being up next year.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
With a strong spring, he'll start the season in the bigs.
"The Rangers system just happens to be stupid with depth." - Jason Parks, 7/14/11
2011-07-25 17:44:05 - benjihana: Ahh my backdoor!!!
"It appears I made a mistake. I did not know what pegged meant" - Schultzy, 11/13/11
There was a quote from a source in the Nats organization a month or so ago
where they said they were 80% sure he’d start the season in Washington.
Whether it’s a source with any input in that or just someone blowing smoke, it’s worth considering.
"The Rangers system just happens to be stupid with depth." - Jason Parks, 7/14/11
2011-07-25 17:44:05 - benjihana: Ahh my backdoor!!!
"It appears I made a mistake. I did not know what pegged meant" - Schultzy, 11/13/11
needs to be Longo'd, think?
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Ryin A on Jan 22, 2012 6:35 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
contract-wise?
I doubt he’d accept it.
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 7:33 PM CST up reply actions
I'd wager vast sums of money he wouldn't.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
No service time wise
Keep him down in AAA for 2 weeks or so and you get basically a extra full year of team control before he hits FA.
He would become a FA at age 25 instead of age 24
Jesus thats amazing to type that
this is what i meant...
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Ryin A on Jan 22, 2012 10:25 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
He hasn't been a Rangers fan in years.
He’s a Young fan, because Young doesn’t like Daniels. If any other player comes public with anti-JD stuff, he’ll be fans of them too.
"The Rangers system just happens to be stupid with depth." - Jason Parks, 7/14/11
2011-07-25 17:44:05 - benjihana: Ahh my backdoor!!!
"It appears I made a mistake. I did not know what pegged meant" - Schultzy, 11/13/11
So you still think I'm racist for comparing Yu to other pitchers (who happened to be Japanese)
who came from that same league and pitched in The Show?
That’s a stretch, even for you on a drunk night.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Whatever you say, racist.
"The Rangers system just happens to be stupid with depth." - Jason Parks, 7/14/11
2011-07-25 17:44:05 - benjihana: Ahh my backdoor!!!
"It appears I made a mistake. I did not know what pegged meant" - Schultzy, 11/13/11
by vfn on Jan 22, 2012 4:13 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Why?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
General comments lately.
You sometimes make it seem you would root for losses or hardships to just to prove yourself right.
by lost in space on Jan 22, 2012 4:21 PM CST up reply actions
I don't hate the manager...he deserves a ton of credit.
Per the GM…he’s been very good the last two years but Nolan Ryan saved his job and his ass.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
That's not even close to true.
"An invasion of armies can be resisted, but not an idea whose time has come." *Victor Hugo*
Found the 626
As he said… still in flux and too early to use. He had other version at 670ish… almost dead on.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Here are the final ones
http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/comments/the_2011_diamond_mind_projection_blowout_-_cairo_edition
Rangers at 652. Not quite that good… we were 677.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Matty Ice, Holland and Ogando did something they'd never done before and
CJ was fucking outstanding.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
And we didn't miss Cliff Lee.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
We got thru it.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
This is why I will never have children
@AdamLikesBeer If you are in Minneapolis I can tell you where to get a good brew.
by TargetField on Jan 22, 2012 4:16 PM CST up reply actions 6 recs
2nd straight World Series appearance...
“We got thru it”
/Josey Wales
"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11
"Replace Ace? Done. Ace's was too long anyway." --Micah 1-17-12
Who'd have thought
that JD relying on guys to do something they’ve never done before could have turned out well. Almost like how it was impossible for him to rely on Lewis and Wilson to anchor the rotation in 2010 with neither being a successful ML starter in the past.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
He hates their bullpen. We should hope he's right on that one.
He also doesn’t like their fifth starter or Santana much.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
If you could get his Leonys projection (albeit in 55 ABs) over the course of an entire season, how excited would you be?
.256 / .331 / .385.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
Not very.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
Yeah just barely above 700 OPS isn't the most exciting thing in the world
@AdamLikesBeer If you are in Minneapolis I can tell you where to get a good brew.
I wouldn't think much of it. I fully expect Martin to need significant time in AAA before he's ready.
I would be pleasantly surprised if we were able to get some use out of Borbon like he expects.
Unless I'm putting something in wrong, that's a .357 wOBA.
From a first year CF with plus defense?
Pretty damn.
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
I know, that's what I was thinking.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
I'm getting that as about a 3.5 win player over 600 PAs.
With average defense and baserunning.
I must be missing something. How would people not be excited about that?
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
I'm excited about that.
That would make him the best CF we’ve had since Byrd.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Im sorry but something is wrong if that line gives you that WAR
Whether its the positional adjustment or what it makes that stat look really weak if that kind of offensive line, with average defense and baserunning, gives you almost all star caliber player
You think 3.5 WAR is almost all-star caliber?
That would be like 14th among CFers last year.
A .357 wOBA would be top-10 among CF.
by AsDevilsRun on Jan 22, 2012 10:10 PM CST up reply actions
So 3.5 is the median number of WAR for an MLB CF'er?
The positional adjustments really are out of hand.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
(estimates)
C: +10
1B: -12
2B: +2.5
3B: +2
SS: +7.5
LF: -7.5
CF: +2.5
RF: -7.5
DH: -15
by AsDevilsRun on Jan 22, 2012 10:23 PM CST up reply actions
The list you're looking at is including some players who weren't primary centerfielders.
But, it was a very strong year for CF.
Four wins is generally called All-Star caliber, because most seasons you’re going to have around 60 players or so at that level. Generally more, but the idea is if it’s 4.5 then a four win player is certainly in the conversation of that level (someone is probably getting overrated, he might be getting underrated, etc.). It’s just a rough title to apply to the concept of a guy who’s in the debate of the top 60 or so players in the game that season.
Breaking it down by position defeats the purpose. Positions are not balanced year-in year-out. But just because shortstops are great one season doesn’t mean Elvis Andrus is less of a player.
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
Hamilton was the only one that I didn't see as a primary centerfielder.
Granted, my only criteria was, “Do I think of this guy as mainly a centerfielder?” Who did I miss?
by AsDevilsRun on Jan 22, 2012 11:06 PM CST up reply actions
Looks like it might only be Hamilton.
Good year for center fielders.
Part of it is also that fWAR is based on defensive value, not offensive. So when there are a lot of good hitters at CF, it does not affect the positional adjustment the way things were done with VORP.
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
Yes, though it's just a rough way of putting a term people will get on to a round number.
Last year, a 4.5 fWAR season would have put you in the top 58; so, two teams of 30. That’s generally about how it goes, so that’s where the term came from.
The difference between a 4 fWAR season and a 4.5 fWAR season may be the difference of several spots in the rankings, but it’s not in terms of value, and that’s before considering margin of error.
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
The problem that's happening here is underrating that offense.
That’s 20 runs above average in 2011. Not for CF, period.
Which makes me think I missed something somewhere, but after positional adjustment that’s still above average.
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
I didn't miss something, I am currently forgetting about replacement level..
Which would be another 20 runs, then positional adjustment, but that’s only a couple more runs.
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
That's not park adjusted though, right?
So take it down a little. Still, I’d be thrilled.
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
Same.
Though it all depends on his defense and base running.
I’m thinking if Borbon and Gentry put up the pathetic line predicted, we’d see Leonys sooner. And if Leonys was producing like that, we’d keep him around (barring injury, of course).
Either way, CF should not be as bad as predicted.
Just getting to this thread
I see now what you mean. I can’t believe people are poo-pooing that season from Martin as a rookie. That would be a big success for his first season.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
Wait, who the hell is Alberto Gonzalez?
Did we sign someone and I didn’t hear about it?
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
His Darvish projection would be sexified.
200.2 IPs, 212 Ks, 53 BBs, 2.64 ERA, 17-6. Yes, please.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
by Aqua on Jan 22, 2012 3:30 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
I expect that will get adjusted before the end of the year.
That’s too good for a projection.
It doesn’t match up with his player card.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
No shit
ROY for sure with numbers like that, probably a top ten Cy Young finish
@AdamLikesBeer If you are in Minneapolis I can tell you where to get a good brew.
More than that.
Might win the AL CY.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
That sounds very close to what I would project for him.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Yeah, looks right to me
@AdamLikesBeer If you are in Minneapolis I can tell you where to get a good brew.
Second in all of MLB only to Kershaw in RAR.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
How have his previous year's projections faired?
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Ryin A on Jan 22, 2012 3:32 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Rangers Projected 2011 record: 84-78
Wasn’t Davenport, but Baseball Prospectus
Player Who Could Surprise: Playing for a manager other than Mike Scioscia could give Napoli an opportunity he hasn’t had before. With three positions (catcher, first base and designated hitter) not set in stone, he could play his way into the sort of full-time role he never had a chance to have in LA.
I don’t subscribe any more, but if you do you can read the rest:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12970
by Colonel Travis on Jan 22, 2012 3:46 PM CST up reply actions
I remember this.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
I would wager you argued against that.
I’d wager that since you spent the first several months after his acquisition pointing out that if Scioscia didn’t want him… he’s probably not worth having.
Including a very nice “Scioscia nods” when he didn’t stop a wild pitch in a game day thread.
But yes… you’ve always loved Napoli. :)
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
COMES WITH INSTRUCTIONS, MATCH.
"The Rangers system just happens to be stupid with depth." - Jason Parks, 7/14/11
2011-07-25 17:44:05 - benjihana: Ahh my backdoor!!!
"It appears I made a mistake. I did not know what pegged meant" - Schultzy, 11/13/11
I said the acquisition of Napoli put our bullpen in shambles.
Per the hitter…wasn’t sure what to do with him when he was hitting .183 in late May but had the good slug%.
You also said Napoli’s 2011 season was a complete fluke.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Why is it so hard to say
“I was wrong”? I didn’t post it here but I will go on record and say that I hated the Napoli acquisition. I saw no clear role for him and didn’t see why we needed him. I was wrong. It freaking happens.
by elchicodelgado on Jan 22, 2012 10:04 PM CST up reply actions
I've admitted to being wrong many times in here.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
by Josey Wales on Jan 22, 2012 10:13 PM CST up reply actions
It was the second highest OPS+ in Rangers history.
You don’t think that’s a fluke?
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Ugh. Hit post too soon.
He will say it wasn’t a fluke until 2012 shows it was then he will say he knew it was all along. Just like he now says he never shit on Napoli.
by elchicodelgado on Jan 22, 2012 10:40 PM CST up reply actions
Not yet
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
by Josey Wales on Jan 22, 2012 10:59 PM CST up reply actions
Napoli was a beast on the road as well...tough to poke any holes in his 2011 season.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
by Josey Wales on Jan 22, 2012 11:01 PM CST up reply actions
Josh Hamilton's 2010 was a fluke too.
I’m not saying Napoli isn’t good. He’s a very good hitter… but Pujols is the only guy who puts that kind of year up consistently. And those days are probably done for him too.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Napoli's rates were better than Miggy last year.
Only Bautista had better rates.
Do you think Napoli is a better hitter than Miggy next year?
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
So you think both CJ & Pujols are going to be worse in 2012 than in 2011?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
by Josey Wales on Jan 22, 2012 11:05 PM CST up reply actions
I don't know what they will be.
Pujols has a better shot of improving because of his strong career numbers. Park isn’t great… but neither was Busch.
I think CJ will regress some and his walk totals will go up and his BABIP will go up a bit.
Anything can happen… but you can take every player in baseball and regression will work far far far more often than it doesn’t.
Do you know what Marcel is?
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
That chef from Top Chef who everyone hated?
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 22, 2012 11:10 PM CST up reply actions
I don't think that's the Marcel matchst1ck's talking about.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
Ross's monkey on Friends?
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
Woosh.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
italians
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Ryin A on Jan 22, 2012 11:35 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
sorry, boo.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Ryin A on Jan 22, 2012 11:50 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Very familiar with Marcel...
so if you think Josh’s 2010 was a fluke and you’re led around by WAR when it comes to making judgments on baseball…why not trade Josh this off-season?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
by Josey Wales on Jan 22, 2012 11:11 PM CST up reply actions
So he's one of the very best players on the team
and the team really seems to respond well (win more games, score more runs) when he’s in the lineup?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
by Josey Wales on Jan 22, 2012 11:21 PM CST up reply actions
Oh, I see
two options are either (a) he makes the team better, or (b) we should trade him if we aren’t going to re-sign him.
You got me, Jose
No, I think we should extend him.
Because we’re a much better team with him in the lineup.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
by Josey Wales on Jan 22, 2012 11:24 PM CST up reply actions
Jobu, how is your head not hurting?
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
What sort of return do you expect Josh to fetch?
Just curious, because I’m not sure any possible package would be worth it.
i tell the truth; i lie a lot
Josh's 2010 was one of the best seasons a player could ever have.
I’m not saying Josh sucks… just that he won’t hit .359 and have a 1.000+ OPS every year.
Almost no one does that.
He followed it up with an .890ish OPS.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Also... don't use that led around by the nose shit with me.
I actually try and discuss things with you for baseball points. You want to go pull that shit go talk to someone else.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
You rely on WAR don't you?
It’s your guiding light, no?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
by Josey Wales on Jan 22, 2012 11:16 PM CST up reply actions
See how well this goes for you, Match?
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
by philkid3 on Jan 22, 2012 11:17 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
We all think we can be reasonable with him in the beginning
You realize it after awhile that it’s impossible. Once he starts cycling you realize he’s just a troll.
Currently cloudy and 41 degrees in Seattle but don't worry...
rain is on the way…and it’s staying until Thursday.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
by Josey Wales on Jan 22, 2012 11:20 PM CST up reply actions
Thank you for the weather report from a city almost completely across the US from me.
What should I do with it?
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
When the weather in Seattle doesn't suck
I’ll let you know.
It’s been The Suck for 2 months and there’s no end in sight.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
by Josey Wales on Jan 22, 2012 11:30 PM CST up reply actions
That's because it's winter.
Who told you it didn’t suck from fall through spring? Did you tell them they could spend five seconds verifying whether or not they were actually correct on the internet?
Why am I supposed to care about the weather in Seattle? I live in Orlando, FL. Can you look the weather up there for me?
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
Always.
Is there such a thing as head hunters for PhDs?
My wife’s been a post doc for 4+ years and needs to move on.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Is she looking for a job in academia,
or elswheres?
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
Academia.
She likes research… she doesn’t really want to teach but considers it a necessary evil.
She works in a sleep lab currently. Neuroscience.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Huh.
We have a person in the building who does the same thing at UofC…
You should talk to JBl about the academic path for neuroscientists. From my experience (mainly in public health and the social sciences), there aren’t headhunters — you just get yourself on a bunch of listservs, check a bunch of websites, and apply to everything that sounds like a reasonable fit (and sometimes, things that sound as if they’re a bit more of a stretch).
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
Although:
there are sometimes places that recruit faculty — it’s often for more senior searches, but every once in a while junior searches will do the same. That’s more networking/word-of-mouth, though. She should get her advisors/mentors to talk her up in their networks, too, if possible…
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
Such a weird thing to me.
I have about ten IT recruiters I have lunch with semi-regularly.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
It's the perfect commentary, isn't it?
And they didn’t realize it, at all.
I even pointed it out to an administrator, who was just befuddled. “What’s so funny? They had to reschedule the program!”
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
No: grad student humor.
The light at the end of the tunnel often seems very, very dim, especially for people who have to write a thesis to finish.
The idea of life after graduate school being rescheduled sums it up beautifully.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
Beer *is* good.
I’m drinking a Half Acre Daisy Cutter right now.
I think you might have to be a grad student (or married to one, or at least close friends with one) to get the angst. The announcement was just too perfect.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
It's a pale ale,
from a local brewery.
Only 5.2% ABV — not too destructive.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
Oh, and by the way:
Why pay Kinsler, when Sean Rodriguez could probably do the same thing at a fraction of the cost?
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
Yeah.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
You'd just think
being wrong so often… that you’d try to pick up some of the tricks we use so you could be right sometimes. But I’m sure you’ll claim you were on the fence on this one.
Like the time I was wrong about CJ having what it took to be a good starter?
Or leaving Chris Davis in the line-up in June 2009 was a really bad thing?
Or bringing Chris Davis back up in late August 2009 was another really bad thing…if the organization was truly serious about winning games?
What about the hiring of Nolan Ryan being a really good thing?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
by Josey Wales on Jan 22, 2012 11:18 PM CST up reply actions
I'm just getting started...wanna talk about the wisdom
in a small market team giving Bravo Kenny Lofton (then 40 years old) $ 6 million to play CF or another $ 6 million to Eric Gagne?
Did you know I said in January 2007 that the Texas Rangers would go 75-87?
Which poster in LSB said the SF Giants would go to the 2010 World Series before the season?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
by Josey Wales on Jan 22, 2012 11:24 PM CST up reply actions
Kenny Lofton did fine.
Just not what we needed at the time.
by AsDevilsRun on Jan 22, 2012 11:26 PM CST up reply actions
You probably loved both the Millwood & Padilla contracts.
Especially Millwood’s 2008.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
by Josey Wales on Jan 22, 2012 11:30 PM CST up reply actions
I really wanted to know the weather in Orlando.
:(
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
by Snark on Jan 22, 2012 11:44 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
click on the team page
it skyrockets to 103
by Colonel Travis on Jan 22, 2012 3:37 PM CST up reply actions
A
1%* increase!
* approximately
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 23, 2012 12:23 AM CST up reply actions
and after they trade for McCutchen...
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
I would take that year from Feliz, btw.
Just putting that out there.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
I think that one will get adjusted too.
Seems too based on his reliever numbers.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Yu's 70.7 RAR is the second highest among ANY pitcher in those projections*...
jizz everywhere
*If I looked at the numbers correctly
Better than CC and Verlander.
Match, did you see his Matt Moore projection? I think the Rays would be pretty happy with that.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
Yeah.
Similar to ZiPS.
GB is calling for a 5 fWAR season from Moore. GB is never that optimistic on a projection.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
He's in the tank for Moore, that's for sure.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
Yes, very, but not with the Price projection, nor Shields and Hellickson.
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 4:00 PM CST up reply actions
What did I say, Match? I believe I said 103.
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
I almost emailed you this thread to get you in here.
I think that will come down (unless we sign Prince). It’s exceptionally optimistic on Darvish and Feliz.
100+ wins for a projection is kinda insane.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
I agree it will come down.
But I really do think this team has pretty special ceiling, I’m not kidding on that.
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
Oh I agree.
I saw those same 3rd order numbers last year (because you showed me…)
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
I went over to the regional site to write about it and Brett had bested me.
Curse work.
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
Elvis's projections are to be expected
but I hope he’s better than that next season. I’m feeling a .750+ OPS
I can't wait for the community projections to start back up.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
I'm going to do them this year.
I swear.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
Yes and no.
If you factor in playing time with PA and IP, LSB did better. Those systems mention they don’t really predict those well.
If you just look at slash lines, ERA and K/9, BB/9, HR/9… the systems outperformed everyone.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Suggesting we should run with the systems,
but use crowd-sourcing for playing time?
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
But crowd sourcing is still fun.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Maybe for 2012, I'll stipulate Marcel as performance numbers,
but come up with my own IP/PA numbers.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
Nolan undershot last year.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Make it happen.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Ryin A on Jan 22, 2012 4:33 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Oh really?
How many teams are in the league?
by lost in space on Jan 22, 2012 4:38 PM CST up reply actions
Mitch and his ol' lady are having a kid, right?
Thought I saw a tweet about it this AM.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Ryin A on Jan 22, 2012 5:23 PM CST via mobile reply actions
so has Prince signed here yet?
somebody in this situation is going to flinch, and it would seem Prince is running out of time.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
Bill Cundiff
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Ryin A on Jan 22, 2012 5:28 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Wrong thread
I bet you’re using the SBN app, haha
by lost in space on Jan 22, 2012 5:30 PM CST up reply actions
OT: Orioles to run with Reynolds at third, Davis at first.
UNLESS THEY SIGN FIELDER.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
That seems backwards.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
All part of that synergy.
"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11
"Replace Ace? Done. Ace's was too long anyway." --Micah 1-17-12
Davis apparently told Showalter he'd prefer to play first.
And Reynolds says HE’S IN THE BEST SHAPE OF HIS LIFE.
The fact that Showalter agreed to this strikes me as another sign that Davis’ defense at the hot corner is suspect, but maybe Showalter’s just trying to keep everyone happy.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
I should add: Showalter expressed concerns about Davis' shoulder holding up,
and Reynolds also prefers to play third.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
I think those corners can give us 400K.
I believe in them.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
That would be awesome.
And they might give Davis that sort of rope, too, especially if they’re as mediocre as I expect them to be this season.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
do you have a record in mind or do you like mailing in broad statements
by oc on Jan 22, 2012 6:04 PM CST up reply actions
If I thought for a second you were actually interested, oc,
I’d actually bother to have a discussion with you.
But you’ve never brought anything to the table, and so there’s no reason to sit at it.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
he brings ‘pretty damn mediocre’ to the table. I ask him for a figure, and he gives me ‘yes’
cocksucker
by oc on Jan 22, 2012 6:18 PM CST up reply actions
Sure I do.
Many of them. Keep asking, big guy.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
Is 80 wins more mediocre than 81?
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
anybody know
if davis still lives in DFW? i’m like 90% sure i saw him working out at 24 hour fitness a couple of weeks ago. he does kind of have that generic steroid head look though…
LOLOK.
Showalter’s just trying to keep everyone happy.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
Reply fail, shit.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
Yeah, I figured that'd get a few chortles.
Hey, just trying to be FAIR AND BALANCED.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
lolz
86 wins for the angels, that would be so awesome.
Some of his projections seem off
Think he’s way too conservative with Dutch. Dutch was TORPish after the All Star break.
Harrison at 9 and 7? He could have 9 at the All Star break.
Moreland #s look low to me, even more so if he suddenly becomes an overweight black Dude. Seriously though, if Moreland’s wrist is 100%, he’s going to rake, especially since he’ll sit vs. tough lefties. 25 Homers, 380ish obp.
I’m bullish on Darvish, but undr 3 ERA the first season seems too bullish. He might fade in the summer a little.
I think he’s super conservative on Elvis. At his age, he should be better, and if Wash pulls his head out of his ass and realizes MY should be in the 2 hole, that’ll free up Elvis and the numbers really jump. If Elvis doesn’t have to worry about moving Ian over so much, all hsi #s will rise, especially obp.
I’ll be very surprised if Feliz is that good. The stuff is there, but I’m concerned about his walk rate.
You know the Rangers kicked the tires and checked under the hood pretty good on Joe Nathan, so those numbers will be a pleasant surprise, but not a shock.
Borbon who?
Hoping Martin finds his groove and he and Gentry become a killer CF platoon. IOr, if Gentry can maintain last years short sample production, Gentry could probably do fine as our everyday CF.
Baseball's hard, guys. I mean, it really is. You can love it but, believe me, it don't always love you back. It's kind of like dating a German chick, you know?
woah re: Mitch
Hope you’re right.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Ryin A on Jan 22, 2012 6:20 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Once we get an even somewhat reputable report that he's signing here, we'll have one.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
Assuming everyone stays healthy, sure.
“Assuming everyone stays healthy” – HAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAAHHAAHAHAHA
Everything about people is the worst. - Jeff Sullivan
The projections do not assume everyone stays healthy.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Who would get more joy out of the Rangers falling flat on their face in 2012?
LSJ or Josey?
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 22, 2012 7:49 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah, totally.
I would totally enjoy seeing my primary source of entertainment fall flat on it’s face in 2012.
Fuck you.
Everything about people is the worst. - Jeff Sullivan
better question
who would spend more time telling other people about it?
"If the Saints can reach the Superbowl, the Rangers can reach the World Series." - PhilKid
The Animated Ballpark in Arlington
I haven't seen anything that clearly suggests that LSJ wants the Rangers to do shit.
i tell the truth; i lie a lot
He actually gets pretty excited when they do well.
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
Definitely Josey
Perseverance isn't just the willingness to work hard. It's that, plus the willingness to be stubborn about your own belief in yourself."
---Merlin Olsen
Most definitely
"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11
"Replace Ace? Done. Ace's was too long anyway." --Micah 1-17-12
Josey
LSJ can’t help being who he is. Josey revels in who he is.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
the projections have most people playing 130 games
Just don't piss her off, otherwise she'll get all Dien Bien Phu up in your Boxer Rebellion - caknuck
btho Iowa State
So they do, apparently.
I still don’t really know how we’re winning 102 games and the Angels are winning 86, though.
That seems fantastically over-optimistic.
Everything about people is the worst. - Jeff Sullivan
It is for Feliz and Darvish.
The Angels projection isn’t that crazy. It expects regression from Weaver, Haren, Santana and C.J. who all had fantastic years last year.
Their bullpen isn’t that great and their offense is certainly better with Pujols… it’s nowhere near what Red Sox, Yankees, Rangers and Tigers (pre V-Mart loss) are.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Lewis too.
And Ogando, considering once he goes back to the bullpen he’s probably not going to be making spot starts.
As for the Angels… 86 games is still pretty pessimistic for them, I think. Awesome rotation, awesome defense… unless something goes awry there, the bullpen and the offense probably won’t have to be anything more than solid for them to win 90 games.
I really don’t understand why our rotation’s being projected to put up playstation numbers while theirs is expected to regress, is what I’m saying.
Everything about people is the worst. - Jeff Sullivan
Well...
Harrison has shit numbers… I expect him to do better.
Holland has similar to last year numbers. Sounds right for a projection
Colby has better numbers because of his peripherals and the HR/FB was insane. His xFIP would expect a better year.
Darvish has made up playstation numbers
Feliz has numbers that are too based on his bullpen numbers
Weaver, C.J. and Santana had career years last year. Always regress to the mean.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Well, I believe probably 90% of Lewis's HR/FB.
Of course, this just may be overly-biased from watching his 89 MPH fastballs getting socked over the fence every start – but I think he might be a guy who breaks xFIP.
But even two out of five starters having lolzers projections is kind of a big deal.
Everything about people is the worst. - Jeff Sullivan
Harrison's numbers aren't exactly shit.
They’re just not as stellar as the numbers he posted in 2011 when it looked (to people who are not Rangers fans) like he was playing over his head.
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 8:32 PM CST up reply actions
I'm not being a homer on this.
I completely understand why it regresses Harrison to his mean.
It very well could happen. But his play last year looked very much like a young pitcher taking a step forward…
Rather than flukey luck.
BABIP wasn’t unsustainable… LOB% a little high… ERA will likely come up. But I think he can pitch a full year and be a 3 fWAR pitcher.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
That's a massive jump.
That’s what I’m saying. If he put up those projected numbers in 2011, you’d still probably be ecstatic, given his previous performances.
Wouldn’t he be a 3 WAR pitcher given his projections? I don’t know. That’s a bit lower than his 4.2 from 2011, and that’s in line with the lesser stats, it seems.
You have been issued a warning.
Personal attacks have no place ~Alzheimer reference~ --sternfan1
In order to continue participating on DRaysBay you must acknowledge your warning by pressing the OK button below.
by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 8:45 PM CST up reply actions
It projects him right around 2.0 to 2.1
Me calling it “shit” was an exaggeration… But prior to Darvish… out of Holland, Harrison, Lewis, Ogando & Feliz… Harrison seems the most likely to give you 3.5 WAR.
Feliz, Holland and (assuming health) Lewis have higher ceilings but are far more variable.
The variance from start to start by Harrison last year was right in line with C.J. Wilson. One of the better in the league at the QS%.
I mean… they’re all high variance… but in this unstable group, I think Harrison might be the most stable.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Consistency.
I agree with you that Harry seemed to take a step forward last year and his gaining consistency was the key. I always felt like we knew what we were going to get out of him every time he went out there. Not a no-hitter candidate by any means, but a quality start, innings eating workhorse of a pitcher.
"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11
"Replace Ace? Done. Ace's was too long anyway." --Micah 1-17-12
he's a pitcher
who is consistently saved by the above average defense that plays behind him.
I wouldn’t at all be surprised if his fWAR next season is somewhere between 1 and 2.
I’ll be shocked if it’s over 3. Pleasantly so, but shocked nonetheless.
by elvis1isking on Jan 22, 2012 10:08 PM CST up reply actions
yes, I know
the first sentence is a response to Jorge. The other two are my expectations regarding Harrison’s fWAR.
I globbed them together…
by elvis1isking on Jan 22, 2012 10:13 PM CST up reply actions
Just a little odd to me
Harrison managed a 3.52 FIP in 2011 and outperformed that by 0.13.
That doesn’t support your assertion.
i tell the truth; i lie a lot
the defense helped him outperform his FIP
he led the AL (maybe Majors?) in GIDP. That helped bump his LOB%.
I believe he won’t have a 7.1% HR/FB rate again. I believe it will be more in the 11% to 12% range.
I think he’ll be a 2 WAR pitcher (or 2.5 maybe) at best. That doesn’t suck, but I don’t think he’ll be a 3 WAR guy.
by elvis1isking on Jan 22, 2012 10:33 PM CST up reply actions
We're talking about how much fWAR he'll produce this year?
Whether he outperforms his FIP or not shouldn’t matter in trying to decide how many fWAR he’s worth.
If we’re talking about WAR measures which use ERA, well, that’s different, and he could regress, but there was only a 0.13 difference between his ERA and FIP. He might give up a few more dingers, but I think it’s reasonable to project him around maybe a 3.5-4.0 FIP yet again, which is a >3 fWAR pitcher.
i tell the truth; i lie a lot
How is LOB% helping his FIP?
There is a case to be made, but I want to see it written from you.
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
Angels fans think it seems fantastically over-pessimistic.
Really, it’s neither, because it is not driven by a fan of the Rangers or Angels.
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
I think the main advantage we have over LAAAA
is depth. We have went to back-2-back WS despite having key personnel gone for 6 weeks at a time. If the Angels lose certain players they are screwed.
"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11
"Replace Ace? Done. Ace's was too long anyway." --Micah 1-17-12
Most of which are meh
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Jan 22, 2012 9:58 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I just like that Darvish outperforms Weaver.
Everybody needs somebody to love... I need Yu, Yu, Yu! I need Yu, Yu, Yu!
I hope I haven't offended the Blues Brothers with this.
Does his projection consider defense?
Everybody needs somebody to love... I need Yu, Yu, Yu! I need Yu, Yu, Yu!
I hope I haven't offended the Blues Brothers with this.
x
MLBInsideNews Scott Swaim
#Breaking: #Nationals to sign Prince Fielder to 8 year deal.
Don't trust Scott Swaim
He reported last week that we weren’t going to sign Yu and a few weeks ago that the Nats were signing Oswalt
didn't the nats literally just buy out Morse's arb years
Just don't piss her off, otherwise she'll get all Dien Bien Phu up in your Boxer Rebellion - caknuck
btho Iowa State
by MonkeyEpoxy on Jan 22, 2012 10:40 PM CST up reply actions
Not credible at all.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
says there's an opt-out after yr 3....
Inoitsnottrue
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Ryin A on Jan 22, 2012 11:00 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Jamey Newberg @NewbergReport 31m Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
In last 5 min, 2 unaccredited bloggers have tweeted “breaking news”: (1) Fielder to sign w/Nats for 8 yrs & (2) Fielder to sign w/TX. #whee!
BUT JIM BOWDEN IS FOLLOWING HIM!!!
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Ryin A on Jan 22, 2012 11:01 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Yeah, but I'm following you...
Que sera, sera.
by scoop16 on Jan 22, 2012 11:04 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
BLOCKED.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Ryin A on Jan 22, 2012 11:19 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
It's true.
By the way: did you see Obama’s Al Green impression?
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
Cracked me up.
He was giving his staff a hard time about it, too.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
Negative credibility
"If the Saints can reach the Superbowl, the Rangers can reach the World Series." - PhilKid
The Animated Ballpark in Arlington
When Scott Swain says so!
"If the Saints can reach the Superbowl, the Rangers can reach the World Series." - PhilKid
The Animated Ballpark in Arlington
needs more soler
Just don't piss her off, otherwise she'll get all Dien Bien Phu up in your Boxer Rebellion - caknuck
btho Iowa State
by MonkeyEpoxy on Jan 22, 2012 11:37 PM CST up reply actions
lol
From bowden’s twitter..
" According to multiple sources the Nationals and Prince Fielder are working towards a deal but DO NOT have a deal at this time…. stay tuned"
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Ryin A on Jan 23, 2012 12:29 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
That's a sweet Curtis Mayfield song.
You think his imminent departure is a done deal?
Que sera, sera.
No -- I don't think he should be dubbed Mantle.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
(But I'm glad you got the Mayfield reference, anyhow.)
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
I know, I know.
It’s actually hard to think of someone who’s thrown away more potential, isn’t it? Not that Hamilton hasn’t made good on a lot of it — but really, the guy could’ve been one of Those Guys…
… but then again, he most likely never would’ve played for the Rangers if it’d worked out that way.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
Gooden, I guess.
Now that I think more about it, there are others. But still.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
tons of info there, jim
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Ryin A on Jan 23, 2012 12:33 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
I like it
it’s very existential. Jim Bowden keeps tweeting to justify his own existence.
"If the Saints can reach the Superbowl, the Rangers can reach the World Series." - PhilKid
The Animated Ballpark in Arlington
You know, in the doom and gloom of the Pujols/Wilson signing, I bet some folks the Rangers would still come out favored in most projection systems.
Including some normally-reasonable folks who I think were far too quick to declare the Angels as clear favorites.
This is one (though still early).
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
The Angels lineup
even with Pujols just isn’t that scary. And though everyone talks about the Angels’ rotation I still think the Rangers have the deeper and better overall pitching staff.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
Gasquet has a sweet one hander
Perseverance isn't just the willingness to work hard. It's that, plus the willingness to be stubborn about your own belief in yourself."
---Merlin Olsen
Oops
Perseverance isn't just the willingness to work hard. It's that, plus the willingness to be stubborn about your own belief in yourself."
---Merlin Olsen
We could use some baseball.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Ryin A on Jan 23, 2012 12:05 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Get a grip: Reds’ Todd Frazier loses bat, still connects for home run (Video)
- Eric Hosmer redefines the Baltimore chop with infield double (Video)
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
