FanPost

2011's LSB Predictions In Review (And OT No. 1 if you like.)

tl;dr: Jonthefon wins. Go Jonthefon!

Okay, I meant to do this a long time ago, but, baseball broke my heart. Also, I thought it would take forever, but it didn't, so, here we go.

Here are the standings from our attempts to predict the upcoming season last spring, in a FanPost found here. Lots of fun discussion in the comments there to bring up.

Everyone who put up predictions was compared to how things actually went, then scored by RMSE. So, the farther away you were on the win totals, the worse you did. Simple! Also listed in parenthesis are teams the predictor was within two games of nailing.

Also on the list are several projections from the Diamond Mind Blowout of Replacement Level Yankees Weblog. Note that these are RLYW using others' player projections to create standings predictions. These are NOT necessarily the standings predictions of PECOTA, Oliver, etc. They were easy to find and put in. If someone would like to link me to other standings projections I can plug them in easily and show you where they'd place.

Notably absent is ZiPS. I couldn't find ZiPS. I sent a message to Dan Szymborski asking where to look, and if I find it, I'll put it in. Also included are every team predicted to go .500 and every team predicted to repeat its 2010 record.

Those who made playoff predictions but not full record predictions are listed after. Everyone should do record predictions this season! Predictions are fun and not to be taken seriously, just make BS up.

On that note: Do not feel bad about your predictions because human intuition is not good at this crap! That's why we have projection systems, and hopefully you don't take these things seriously. If you do take these things seriously and did horribly, however, you should feel bad. Hopefully this is not you.

Finally. . .

The Standings!

  1. CAIRO: 8.706 (SF, LAD, PHI [nailed])
  2. PECOTA: 8.942 (KC, NYM, PIT)
  3. Diamond Mind Blowout Composite: 9.046 (ATL)
  4. Vegas represented by BetUS.com: 9.051 (ATL [nailed], LAD, COL [nailed])
  5. Bill James: 9.233 (KC, ATL [nailed], SF, LAD)
  6. Jonthefon: 9.434 (SEA, NYM [nailed], LAD, COL); 3/8 playoff teams correct.
  7. Oliver: 9.519 (ATL [nailed])
  8. Marcel: 9.720 (BOS)
  9. Bface: 9.883 (TB, TOR, WSN, PIT, SF [nailed]); 4/8 playoff teams correct and AL champions.
  10. Philkid3: 10.085 (KC, NYM, PIT); 3/8 playoff teams and AL champions correct.
  11. TBall: 10.236 (TOR, NYM, LAD); 3/8 playoff teams correct.
  12. Scoop16: 10.391 (KC, PIT); 3/8 playoff teams correct.
  13. .500: 11.223
  14. Matchst1ck: 11.403 (TB [nailed], SD [nailed]); 3/8 playoff teams and AL champions correct.
  15. Josey Wales: 11.857 (LAD), 2/8 playoff teams correct.
  16. 2010: 11.985 (BOS)
  17. Iblum: 13.891 (NYM, LAD, SD); 2/8 playoff teams and AL champions correct.

Did Not Pick Records

  1. Cmkelly29: 5/8 playoff teams and AL champions correct.
  2. Michael bluth: 5/8 playoff teams correct.
  3. Boomer1: 4/8 playoff teams and AL champions correct.
  4. DJCahill: 4/8 playoff teams correct.
  5. Hard8: 4/8 playoff teams correct.
  6. Vfn: 4/8 playoff teams correct.
  7. Slc ranger: 4/8 playoff teams correct.
  8. Adam J. Morris: 3/8 playoff teams and AL Champions correct.
  9. The Best Micah: 3/8 playoff teams and AL champions correct.
  10. AjaxJones: 3/8 playoff teams correct.
  11. Dirk Diggler: 3/8 playoff teams correct.
  12. GhostofErikThompson: 3/8 playoff teams correct.
  13. JBlmaknee: 3/8 playoff teams correct.
  14. JDT217: 3/8 playoff teams correct.
  15. LSJ: 3/8 playoff teams correct.
  16. MonkeyEpoxy: 3/8 playoff teams correct.
  17. RangerMand: 3/8 playoff teams correct.
  18. RCCook: 3/8 playoff teams correct.
  19. Robert L. Bishop: 2/8 playoff teams and AL champions correct.
  20. Mizzou918: 2/8 playoff teams correct.
  21. Utlonghorn24: 2/8 playoff teams correct.
  22. Bigsteve: 2/6 division winners and AL champions correct.
  23. Iorange555: 2/6 divisions correct.
  24. MayurP: 1/6 division winners correct.
  25. GhettoBear04: 1/4 AL playoff teams and champion correct.

Check My Work!

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