Derek Holland and defining "erratic"
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 31, 2012 1:18 PM CST
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PrintSo I was reading T.R. Sullivan's piece on the Rangers' rotation options for 2012, and this item jumped out at me:
(Derek Holland) has a tendency to be erratic, but that disappeared in the second half of last season, when he went 9-1 with a 3.06 ERA in 14 starts.
For the season as a whole, Derek Holland had 6 starts where he posted a Game Score of 25 or lower. In the A.L., Brian Duensing, Fausto Carmona, Jason Vargas, Jeff Francis, John Lackey and Carl Pavano also had 6 25-or-lower starts. Not a single A.L. starter had more than 6 25-or-lower starts, however.
Derek Holland also had 5 starts in 2011 where he posted a Game Score of 75 or higher. James Shields had 12. Jered Weaver had 10. Justin Verlander had 9. C.C. Sabathia and Felix Hernandez had 7. Gavin Floyd, Ricky Romero and Jason Vargas had 6. C.J. Wilson, Dan Haren, David Price and Gio Gonzalez had 5.*
* Fun fact -- there were 184 75+ Game Score games in the A.L. last year, and 226 25- Game Score games.
In 2011, Holland was tied for the most "disaster" starts, and was in the top 10 for the most "great" starts, in terms of Game Score. Holland's defining characteristic in 2011 was that he was erratic.
Sullivan talks about Holland's second half of 2011, and Holland did have a great second half of 2011...however, it wasn't because he stopped being erratic.
Here's his game logs from the second half of the season:
So that was a complete game shutout, followed by a 7 run outing, following by 6 innings with one unearned run allowed, follow by a complete game shutout, followed by a 6 run, 1.2 inning outing.
Holland had three Game Scores of 25 or less in the second half of last season, and three of 79 or more. Three of Holland's 14 second-half starts were disasters, and four of them saw him allow no earned runs.
That erraticism carried over to the postseason, as well...in his first three starts of the 2011 postseason, Holland went 5, 2.2, and 4.2 innings. He was okay against Tampa in the ALDS, was terrible in Game 2 of the ALCS, and was mediocre in Game 6 of the ALCS (3 homers allowed while facing 19 batters).
That performance was what led the Rangers to flip-flop Holland and Matt Harrison in the World Series, with Harrison getting the game 3 and game 7 starts, and Holland being bumped to #4 in the rotation. Holland, of course, responded with his incredible Game 4 outing.
Derek Holland had a very good 2011 season, and there's reason to hope that he can build on that success in 2012. However, suggesting that Holland wasn't erratic in the second half of the season, or that he showed signs of being less erratic then, is just not correct.
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I dunno
Just glancing at his season game scores, it looks like if you graphed a rolling 5-start average over the course of the season there would be an improving trend. And he ended with 6 solid starts in a row.
His peripherals also indicate gradual improvement overall, if you look at his monthly K, BB rates and his xFIP. In this case I think the narrative, while perhaps too simplistic, is not far off the mark.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
High variance but trending upward.
sounds like Holland. I haven’t seen the data, but I think Harrison was trending upward as well—with lower variance. I think Harrison has the lower ceiling of the two, but his consistency was (and is) extremely valuable.
"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11
"Replace Ace? Done. Ace's was too long anyway." --Micah 1-17-12
I don't agree with this characterization (or any characterization)
because I’m not sure I agree with the Game Score cutoffs.
An 8.2IP, 3ER outing is pretty fantastic and it only gets a 60. Even a 6 IP, 2ER game is pretty good and it gets a 50.
I could look at those same numbers and describe it thusly: Out of 14 starts, Holland had 10 quality starts, with 4 elite starts, finishing out September with not one truly bad start.
You still can’t get around the 3 real clunkers in the second half but he seemed to have a higher rate of clunkers in the first half. For instance, if I set the clunker cutoff at 35 (and it seems completely arbitrary at 25 so who cares), he had 5/17 in the first half and 3/14 in the second half.
Not that I want to draw a positive trend from that either. But when you are talking about 31 data points total with fine lines between poor, average, good, and elite, you can make the numbers say whatever you want.
Just going off that data.
It seems like ‘most’ of his struggles came after pitching having high pitch counts in his previous 2 games. Except of the Aug. 5th game, although he did have the complete game shutout the start before.
Ugh...
It seems like ‘most’ of his struggles came after pitching having high pitch counts in his previous 2 games.
he wasn't as erratic as the first half
3 really bad starts doesn’t mean he wasn’t more consistent with his performance.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
by NothinG on Jan 31, 2012 1:46 PM CST via Android app reply actions
I was at the August 10 game
Was pretty bad early in the game, then he settled down and did alright.
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Jan 31, 2012 2:16 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
looks like a high upside pitcher
with 2 yrs big lg experience, who was rushed to the majors, jerked around between the roto and bullpen and does a bad Harry Carey impersonation.
Some people want to jerk Harrison around as well.
"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11
"Replace Ace? Done. Ace's was too long anyway." --Micah 1-17-12
I think you aren't fully appreciating his versatility
he also does a bad Arnold imitation
"I would have shot myself in the foot to stay in Texas." -- C.J. Wilson, 12/8/2011
I think saying he was "jerked around" isn't really accurate
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 31, 2012 2:56 PM CST up reply actions
It's accurate in describing how RangerMad feels about Dutch's handling.
"...out of the shadows of unprecedented success, the sun shines down upon this team waiting to thrill anew." - ghostofErikThompson
1 start in AAA
followed by 7 relief appearances out of the ML pen
followed by 2 starts
back to the pen for 2 appearances
5 more ML starts
3 more relief appearances
then finally stuck as a starter for 14 starts in a row
During all that jerking around (from his first start until his last relief appearance) he had a 6.27 ERA. I think its fair to say he was jerked around and could have been better served by spending more time in AAA and then coming up and only being moved from pen to rotation one time rather than the 5 switches he made in 2 months here.
Jim Bowden has officially lost his mind
he thinks we should trade Martin Perez for Denard Span? all because we won’t have Josh after this year and we apparently need an answer for CF
Nobody is perfect, i am nobody, therefore, i am perfect
thats dumb
if nothing else….we have Gentry and Borgon/Leonys platoon. Provides good defense.
NO This is why i dont come here so much anymore. it has become a destination for certain types which i am not. Love the rangers, not this -- Mark from OC on Arrested Development
Justin Verlander? I piss on Justin Verlander --AJM
That's incredibly stupid
Would it even take Perez to land Span?
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Jan 31, 2012 2:17 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
No.
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He's Jim Bowden
I’d honestly rather have the average major-league intern making big decisions for my team than delegate to him.
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While Holland did have three disaster starts in the second half.
I don’t think that in and of itself makes him erratic in the second half.
Derek Holland, 14 starts, 11 above or equal to 50, 3 at 25 or below
C.J. Wilson, 14 starts, 11 above or equal to 50, 3 at 25 or below
Colby Lewis, 14 starts, 8 above or equal to 50, 1 in the 40’s, 3 in the 30’s, 2 in the 20’s
Matt Harrison, 13 starts, 8 above or equal to 50, 2 in the 40’s, 2 in the 30’s, 1 in the 20’s
Alexi Ogando, 12 starts, 6 above or equal 50, 3 in the 40’s, 2 in the 30’s, 1 in the teens.
C.J. Wilson and Derek Holland had the same number of “disaster” starts in the second half and the same number of 50 or above starts.
I would not call Derek Holland’s or C.J. Wilson’s second half particularly erratic.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
"Erratic" is a completely subjective term, as it's being used here.
I agree with ab03 about Game Score as a metric — I’d rather look at FIP or xFIP or some other DiPS metric for each game, but I’d need a bit more time to calculate it. Still, even if we use Game Score, just look at Holland’s first half versus second half:
Mean StdDev Median
1st Half 48.4 18.1 50
2nd Half 56.6 20.7 59
Now, with that standard deviation, you might actually argue Holland was more erratic in the second half than the first…
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
Just did Wilson, as well, same way:
Mean StdDev Median
1st Half 57.3 11.4 56
2nd Half 58.3 20.1 64
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
Heh, I'm in the process of doing all four other starters.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Double check my work, if you get a chance? I have to get on a phone call... :(
I hate it when work interferes with baseball.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
I hate it when my COO is in town
And fucks up my short-timer disease.
We’re not about sending messages. We’re about winning ballgames.-Wash, 04/03/11
Hell to the fucking no. -Wash, 10/07/11
Quickly: I fucked this up -- I included July 16 in the first half.
The changes are relatively minimal, though.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
Everyone
GS Mean StdDevP Median ------------------------------------------ C.J. 34 57.47 15.25 60 First 19 56.79 10.82 56 Second 15 58.33 19.43 64 Colby 32 52.44 19.62 57 First 18 52.44 20.46 56 Second 14 52.43 18.48 58 Harry 30 52.87 15.50 58 First 17 54.12 16.66 61 Second 13 51.23 13.67 53 Ogando 29 54.14 17.01 57 First 17 57.82 16.55 62 Second 12 48.92 16.27 51 Holland 32 52.03 19.10 54 First 18 48.44 17.63 50 Second 14 56.64 19.91 59 ------------------------------------------ Total 157 53.84 17.51 57
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
(This is a boring phone call, anyway...)
Turns out I didn’t screw up Wilson’s — but I see we got different numbers for our standard deviations for both him and Holland. Why is that?
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
I used StdDevP instead of StdDev
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
LUKE, WE'RE GONNA HAVE COMPANY!
"...out of the shadows of unprecedented success, the sun shines down upon this team waiting to thrill anew." - ghostofErikThompson
That kicks ass
Took me a bit to pinpoint the scene.
Football can go to hell. The Rangers aren't ready for football season and neither am I.
by WyoRanger on Jan 31, 2012 7:58 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Where I would argue the StdDev isn't a great measure of "erratic"
Is that that high peaks create the same noise that low valleys do.
If a pitcher pitched nothing below a game score of 60, but every game was either 60 or 90, would we call that pitcher erratic?
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
I don't think the context that most people would use erratic to descibe a pitcher would apply though.
A pitcher making 16 starts of 60 and 16 of 90 has a mean of 75 and a StdDev of 15.
But I think everyone would just call that pitcher dominant… some more dominant than others… but no one would expect 90’s every time out.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
I think we should not put too much time into a "stat"
That James himself said was more of a toy than a stat.
We’re not about sending messages. We’re about winning ballgames.-Wash, 04/03/11
Hell to the fucking no. -Wash, 10/07/11
You could do the same thing with FIP and xFIP, as I point out below.
The problem is actually more with “erratic” than Game Score.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
I don't think of it as a predictive tool at all.
But it’s a nice snapshot of what results the pitcher (and his team, the umpire, the ballpark and the luck dragon) achieved that day.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Yes, I know.
The point is that the degree and desirability of being “erratic” depends almost entirely on how you define it, and in my opinion is not a very useful term in evaluating pitcher performance over half-seasons.
By Game Score, Holland was clearly better in the second half of the season that the first half. By FIP and xFIP, Holland was clearly better in the second half of the season than the first half.
What would you say about CJ Wilson’s first versus second half, in terms of “erratic-ness”?
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
I don't think either of them were particularly erratic.
Both had 78.5% of their starts above 50…. or roughly better than 3 out of 4 starts were ones you’d be happy with.
Any pitcher that can give me that I wouldn’t call erratic.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
OK: how about Ogando, first half versus second half?
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
Ogando was more erratic in the second half.
In my subjective view of the term… I take erratic as a frequent in ability to provide a minimum level of performance.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
And there's the rub.
Looking at WPA for the starting rotation would be interesting… it’s already calculated on a game-by-game basis at FanGraphs.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
In using another goofy "stat" of Quality Start %
I think league average is something like 58% or so. Somewhere in the 50’s. C.J. and Harry were the two best for the Rangers last year around 70 something percent and best in the league was around 80%. So no one gives you quality every time. Everyone has bad days.
When I hear “erratic” I think of someone who can’t meet that basic standard of a quality start on a regular basis. If you’re below league average in providing that minimum level of performance… you’re erratic in my mind.
Jered Weaver’s three lowest game scores in the second half of the season were 17, 26 & 32.
Justin Verlander’s were an amazing 43, 44 & 46.
C.C.’s were 31, 37 & 49.
For me, Derek’s three bad games in the second half mixed in with a lot of good games and a few dominant games makes him erratic.
Everyone has an occasional bad day… and even a guy like Jered Weaver can throw out a stink bomb. Basically only the absolute elite having an amazing season manage to never have a real stinker.
It’s the frequency of those stinkers that make me concerned… not the relationship between stinkers and dominance.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Fix
For me, Derek’s three bad games in the second half mixed in with a lot of good games and a few dominant games makes him DON’T erratic.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Yeah, I was curious about that.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
Still messed it up.
For me, Derek’s three bad games in the second half mixed in with a lot of good games and a few dominant games don’t make him erratic.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Yup.
Ogando’s 12 2nd-half Game Scores, low to high:
16, 30, 37, 41, 41, 49, 52, 56, 58, 61, 70, 76
Harrison’s 13:
20, 38, 39, 42, 44, 50, 53, 58, 59, 61, 65, 68, 69
Holland’s 14:
23, 25, 25, 50, 51, 54, 58, 60, 64, 64, 73, 79, 83, 84
Lewis’ 14:
24, 26, 30, 35, 38, 45, 58, 58, 62, 62, 69, 71, 74, 82
Wilson’s 15:
22, 24, 25, 50, 57, 59, 61, 64, 66, 67, 67, 68, 80, 82, 83
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
Erraticism would seem to be defined...
…by the inverse of the difference between the median and 50, and then the standard deviation.
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 31, 2012 4:02 PM CST up reply actions
Walk me through this...
I keep saying it and don’t quite see what you mean.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
all i can say..as the season came down the
stretch..Dutch was the most solid of the starters for me..
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