Wednesday a.m. Rangers stuff
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 4, 2012 10:05 AM CST
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Happy Wednesday...
Jeff Wilson has a story on Yu Darvish visiting the Metroplex, with quotes from Ian Kinsler (who, along with Josh Hamilton, met Darvish when he came to the Ballpark).
T.R. Sullivan writes that the Rangers are introducing two new organizational awards, the Bobby Jones Player Development Man of the Year Award and the Don Welke Scout of the Year Award. Jones and Welke, respectively, are the inaugural winners.
Michael Hindman looks at the long-term problems facing the Rangers at the outfield positions.
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(I really don’t see the Rangers giving him the 4 / $76-80 million he’s likely to get elsewhere)
While I wouldn’t give Hamilton $20 mil/year either, I think it’s more that I can see another team giving him a 5 or 6 year deal….that is something I think the Rangers would shy away from with Hamilton. I could see a team giving him 5/90….I just don’t think it should be the Rangers.
"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Jan 4, 2012 10:10 AM CST reply actions
The Rangers should shy away from Hamilton, period.
In the realm of reasonable offers he will get on the market, none are comfortable to me. More then $15-17 million per year and three years guaranteed and I walk away. And we can be assured he will be asking for and recieve more than that.
I agree with this sentiment
At what price do we resign josh long term though?? Let’s say he really does want to stay here long term and is willing to give us a discount this offseason if we sign a long term extension… 6/100? Does that make it worth it? 5/80? Ignoring the fact that another team will probably overpay him, what price should the Rangers be willing to go on him?
my better is better than your better.
by rangerjake on Jan 4, 2012 10:23 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Wow......6 years is a long time.......
I’ve said before…with Hamilton, (as much as it pains me to think of him leaving) the most I would ever go is 4 years. If he would sign a 4 year deal for $65 or $70 mil, I’d do it….maybe a 4 year deal with a 5 year option but I just don’t think that will do it. Someone will pay him 5 guaranteed for $100 mil….
"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Jan 4, 2012 10:32 AM CST up reply actions
I'd do 3 guaranteed years
with vesting options for years 4 and 5. Let him have an opt out after 3. Buy out options for the team for years 4 and 5.
Why would Josh sign that if somebody else is going to guarantee 6-7 years?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
So if you don't think you're going to extend him, why are you keeping him in 2012?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Because we don't have someone else to step into LF and replace his production
You’re not likely to find a contender willing to trade the talent we’d want for him, and the Rangers don’t want to trade one of its most popular players just because he’s approaching free agency. If he leaves on his own, that’s different, but the Rangers won’t trade him unless the team tanks.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
They don't want to trade him because he's the best player on the team and a mega-talented superstar.
Mega-talented superstars help you win games but they also need to get paid.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
They don't need to get paid, they just end up getting paid
and when the mega-talented superstar has only put up one superstar year with almost every year including injuries, you don’t want to be the guy to pay him.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
And he will by someone else.
Because the Rangers will rightly decide he’s not worth what he wants.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
[also, while he has a lot of talent, he's only had one elite year]
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 4, 2012 11:01 AM CST up reply actions
This is such bullshit.
He was great in both 2008 & 2010.
He was outstanding in 2011 and his presence in the lineup and how this team played when he was in it was not coincidental.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
I have a higher bar for elite than you, I think.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 4, 2012 11:07 AM CST up reply actions
Doubt it.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Apparently you don't even require playing anywhere close to a full season to be elite
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
You realize that Beltre broke down last year
and missed 38 games and that Napoli missed 50 games?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
You realize that Josh has one season in hsi career with more than 133 games played?
He averages 118 games/season over his career and will be turning 31 this May.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
And nobody is going to pay them $20M per year either.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
That was one of Hindman's comments - Rangers don't have an internal replacement for Hammy
I completely understand every concern about giving Josh 4/70-80 or something like that. But then what? It’s going to be tough to find a FA to replace his median production. Maybe the Rangers can afford Josh’s risks.
Football can go to hell. The Rangers aren't ready for football season and neither am I.
by WyoRanger on Jan 4, 2012 11:05 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
The Rangers have a talented front office capable of finding an above average OF
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 4, 2012 11:06 AM CST up reply actions
If the Rangers traded Hamilton in the next 8 months
They almost assuredly be making the 2012 Rangers worse. This team is a World Series caliber team right now. Trading him doesn’t make sense.
Yeah
I don’t understand why people don’t get this.
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 4, 2012 10:55 AM CST up reply actions
I get it...you don't trade him because he's the best player on the team.
But that also means you extend him if you’re serious about winning after 2012.
You want it both ways…you don’t want to trade him because he’s so damned good but then you don’t want extend him because he’ll be so damned expensive.
And if they can commit a $ 100-120 million (maybe more) investment on a complete unknown with no track record of success, they can throw the dice on Josh Hamilton.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
You don't re-sign every good player that comes through your team
That’s a horrible way of doing business. We may not be able to replace his talent directly, but we will replace his production. And we’ll do it for a whole hell of a lot less money than it would take to just keep Hamilton.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
You pay for future production not past production.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 4, 2012 11:02 AM CST up reply actions
Thats bullshit and you know it
That would be the ideal way of doing business but thats not how its done
Uhh...no it's not.
There are times where you pay for things that are hard to quantify or your needs necessitate paying more than market rate [in the long term] for near term gains, but the goal is to pay players what they will be worth during their contract.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 4, 2012 11:47 AM CST up reply actions
Then you will never sign a top FA
If you want to troll the bargain bin or the mediocre line for guys thats fine you can probably sign them based on expected future performance but the elite, superstar players dont sign for that.
They sign based on what they’ve done unless their agent is a complete moron or they are willing to take a extreme hometown discount to go someplace specific (ala CJ Wilson this winter)
First, this depends on when, in their career arc, you sign the FA.
Second, this explains why paying top $ for FA’s is, more times than not, a bad idea.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
You're talking to someone
who spent most of last winter arguing for an Adrian Beltre signing. And who was mad that the Rangers didn’t think CJ was worth 5/75.
This is a ridiculously basic concept and I can’t believe you’re reacting this strongly.
How they’ve done in the past affects how you project them to do in the future. You pay them on that projection. You do not pay them on their past.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 4, 2012 11:54 AM CST up reply actions
Do you believe Adrian Beltre will be worth 16 mil a year in year 5 and/or 6 of his current deal?
I agree with you on CJ but that was more a case of him taking less money to go play in LA rather than the 100 mil or so FLA offered him
Pujols got paid based on whats hes done thus far not what he will do in the future. Unless you think hes going to be a 30 mil per year worth guy in 10 years.
Sure you can go get the Coco Crisps of the world for fair market value but the superstars are going to get paid well more than they should in most cases.
I think Beltre's glove (which is a big part of what they paid for)
Makes him a reasonable bet to be a 3-3.5 WAR player in years 5 and 6.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
Meh. I generally share your skepticism, but Beltre more than passes the eye test too
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
His bat is going to fall off a cliff.
The only thing that saved him this year was playing half his games in Texas.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
And this is likely to stop because?
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 4, 2012 12:03 PM CST up reply actions
Because Josey said so
DUH
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
Is he going to only play away games now?
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
Pujols is a ridiculous contract because of the years.
I never said there aren’t bad contracts.
Also, I think the goal in FA is to structure contracts so that you get the total value out of the entire contract, even if it doesn’t break down nicely/evenly into how much they get paid each year.
Beltre provided surplus value this past year. If he does it again this year, there’s almost no way he isn’t worth the contract.
Furthermore, while I understand your qualms about UZR in WAR, Beltre is universally thought of as a phenomenal defender. You can’t just set that value at zero.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 4, 2012 12:05 PM CST up reply actions
Beltre is a great defender but
you’re talking about a player that missed nearly a 1/4 of the season and who couldn’t get his road OPS above .690 until he got to face the soft under belly of September pitching.
There’s a reason he was cheap after 2009 and another reason why Boston let him walk last year instead of giving him a long term deal.
His bat is not going to age well.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Let me make sure I have this correct:
If Boston lets a bat walk, they know what they’re doing.
But if the front office of the two time defending AL champs lets a Hamilton walk, they don’t know what they’re doing?
The Boston FO of 2003-2011
was superior to the current Ranger FO.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Even assuming that is true
that has nothing to do with whether the Rangers know what they’re doing.
by RangersfaninROK on Jan 4, 2012 12:45 PM CST up reply actions
Beltre was signed with very little
regard for Years 4 thru 6 of his deal.
JD thought he was the game-changer that could get us over the hump somewhere in the 2011-2013 window.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Boston paid $1.43M per win during that time period
Texas paid $862k
Obviously not an end all argument
But Boston paid almost twice as much for players as the 2 time defending AL champs during that run. It can tend to make FO’s look a little smarter if they can sign anyone.
that's funny
because our current Ranger FO took the team to back to back world series, boasts one of the majors strongest farm systems, a modest payroll, and is the envy of baseball, judging by the fact that other teams keep breathing down our necks to talk to are assistant GM’s.
otoh, the front office of the Red Sox just got fired after a historic September collapse.
but they’re better. LOL.
Why don't you have a nice big cup of shut the fuck up? - Lisa W 3/4/2011
How many World Series did the
Red Sox win in that time?
How many other deep post-season runs did they make?
I like the current Ranger FO much more than I did than the one that existed before 2008 but they have a ways to go to catch Boston.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
world series or bust baby
Never mind the $160 million dollar payroll on the Red Sox in 2011, vs $90 million for the Rangers.
2010: $160 vs $55
2009: $120 vs $74
2008: $133 vs $67
2007: $143 vs $68
2006: $120 vs $68
2005: $123 vs $55
2004: $127 vs $55
in 2003, the rangers payroll was second only to the Yankees and a few million higher than the sox. but that wasn’t the current Ranger FO, so it really doesn’t count.
Not really the point. The Red Sox have won 2 world series’ since 2003, 2 more than us.
They’ve attended 2 world series’ since 2003, the same number as us.
They reached the ALCS 4 times
and made the playoffs 5 times. in those years.
of course, from 2003 to 2009 our team was pretty shitty, so I’m not sure what you are driving at.
Theo and his team did an excellent job with the Red Sox and deserve extreme praise. They’ll do an equally good job with the Cubs, given some time and patience. To be compared to them is no insult. In fact, I truly believe that neither Francona nor Epstein should have been fired.
The original point is that you wanted to take a shot at Adrian Beltre because he took Michael Young’s job and did it well. shame on you.
Why don't you have a nice big cup of shut the fuck up? - Lisa W 3/4/2011
No, this team had another role
for Michael Young and he flourished…Team MVP and Top 10 AL MVP
My problems with Beltre had much more to do with his contract precluding us from signing CJ & Josh.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
We did sign Josh
we gave him a 2 year deal last year that runs through 2012.
CJ wanted a) 5 years, which NOLAN RYAN refused to sign off on and b) to play in Southern California, which we couldn’t offer.
signing Beltre has had nothing to do with that.
Why don't you have a nice big cup of shut the fuck up? - Lisa W 3/4/2011
JW has his agenda
And we all know what it is.
Josh Hamilton: "I just show up, look at the lineup and play where I’m told. If they want me to catch, I’ll catch."
Jon Daniels on relationship with #Rangers Young: "I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." 2/19/11
His contract didn't preclude anything.
We just bid $51.7M to get Darvish. You might disagree with where the money is spent…
But it’s clearly there if the Rangers wanted to keep CJ and likely also if they want to keep Josh.
Beltre has no impact on C.J. or Josh. None.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
oh I forgot
Yes, the team had another role for Michael Young. the role of “not letting balls get past him at third base”
Beltre: 2011: 1.91 assists per 9 innings at 3rd 2010: 1.91 a/9
Young: 2011: 1.74 assists per 9 innings at 3rd. 2010: 1.74 a/9
remarkable actually.
what does that data tell you? those aren’t advanced statistics. they say that at least 20 or so more grounders were turned into outs because we had Beltre out there instead of Young. and I didn’t even get to the putouts.
There’s a reason why Beltre won a gold glove. and its not the same reason that Rafael Palmeiro won one. its because Beltre is a damn good thirdbaseman defensively.
Why don't you have a nice big cup of shut the fuck up? - Lisa W 3/4/2011
Ban.
http://www.lonestarball.com/2011/12/19/2648091/yu-darvish-scouting-report#86206511
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
Im not saying dismiss defensive value at all
I do think it has become a tad over rated and over analyzed over the last 1-2 years though.
I think most premier FA contracts end up being “bad” even though the degree of bad varies. Whether it be because WAR doesn’t like the player or what but I dont think you can go into negotiations with a top tier FA and expect to pay based on expected future performance.
You're confusing
“don’t pay for performance under the previous contract” with “don’t underpay for performance in the front end of a newly proffered contract knowing that you’ll probably be overpaying for performance at the back end of that contract.”
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
How much
do you think Beltre was worth this year?
Put a dollar figure on it. Doesn’t have to use $/WAR, of course, but there would be some sort of justification, I’d hope.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
Are you using the same formula
that says Kevin Millwood was worth $ 15 million in 2008?
Because any formula that says Millwood was worth $ 15 million in 2008 is complete bullshit.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
We use the same formula for all players
but without the double standard you apply.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
Oh I think he easily was worth his contract this year and then some
If I had to put a dollar figure on it I would say around 18-20 million.
OK.
So based on those numbers, the Rangers got $4-6M surplus value from Beltre in 2011.
They owe him $66M between 2012-2015 — an average of $16.5M a year.
If they can get, say, $15M average value a year from him from here on out, he’d have been worth his entire contract, right?
And you can understand that if someone (say, the Rangers) valued Beltre’s 2011 performance even higher — say, $25M — then you’re looking at $55M over those four years to get fair value on the contract.
And if Beltre puts up another season like last one, then you’re talking $40-50 million surplus value in the first two years of the deal, which pays for a big part of the $51 he’s owed from 2013-2015, right?
Obviously, if he falls off the cliff in 2014 or even 2015, it won’t be pretty. But it won’t mean the contract didn’t work out well for the Rangers.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
So by that thinking...you can give a 5-6
year deal to Josh and not worry if he falls off a cliff 2-3 years into the deal?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Honestly? Yes, that's exactly what that means.
But that is assuming a lot of things. Such as he was worth the money the entire contract was worth in those first 2-3 year. And there no way possible that he would sign for less so that they could avoid those cliff falling years.
It’s kind of like the Young contract (oh boy, here I go). He exceeded the value of that contract the couple of years, but he certainly won’t be worth it the last two years of it. But I feel that keeping “The FACE” around those last two years won’t cripple the team and that the contract he signed will overall make the investment worth it.
"I don't really like pitchers." - Nelson Cruz
The thing about Young:
He probably didn’t exceed the value of this contract in the first couple years, even if you include intangibles.
It’s very hard to make that argument that in 2009 and 2010, he was worth an average of $16M. Now, his 2011 was obviously great, and well worth what the Rangers paid him. And if he’s the rare guy that winds up being worth more in years 3, 4, and 5 of a five-year deal? Great!
But the reason many of us are still not thrilled with his contract is that we think it’s still very uncertain that Young has another season like 2011 — in which he still really didn’t clear that much surplus value.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
His contract is a 16 mil per year deal
How they structure the payments means very little for this exercise.
I think he gave the Rangers 2-4 mil in surpluss value last year.
I think by the end of the deal we will have over payed by probably 5-10 mil which I dont have a problem with really and I guess you could argue the rangers have a different valuation of things and thus in their eyes he was a completely worthy investment.
But to me even if we did overpay by 5-10 mil over a 5 year deal when he gives us 70-75 mil in value thats not bad IMO. Just like I would be fine giving prince a 8/180 type deal knowing that over the course of the contract he probably only gives us 150-160 mil in return thats still a worthy investement. Sure I would love for every player to be worth twice what we pay them but that isn’t possible especially with veteran superstars. As long as they bring back I’d say 85% of what we pay them I think thats fair given that those players were likely well underpaid in the prime of their careers due to the arbitration system
Ah, I see.
I honestly think this is just a factor of your gestalt on how much players are worth not having kept up with inflation in the FA market.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
I think ive kept up with the inflation in the FA market just fine
I think its more a case of people being stuck on WAR and $/WAR and using that as determination of how much someone is and should be worth
I think Snark and I
are more than aware of the limitations of WAR and $/WAR, thankyouverymuch. We’ve had many conversations about it.
The system isn’t perfect, but it’s far, far, far better than just randomly assigning value based on how much you think a guy is worth. I’m open to different valuations, but I need to know that you are applying the standards evenly.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
I don't see
where you’ve applied them at all.
You just put $18-20M out there, for example, and though I’d asked for justification, you didn’t provide any… which is fine, but it certainly doesn’t help the case you’ve just made.
Especially since I was explicit about not being “stuck on WAR and $/WAR.”
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
Justification
Well I believe that 4.5 mil per WAR is actually a pretty good number to use.
But I would knock off roughly 1 WAR for Beltre due to missing as much time as he did. I think thats something WAR doesn’t do a good job of is accounting for injury time. You can earn negative WAR when you are playing why not when you are out injured?
So I think Beltre was more in line with a 4-4.5 WAR player as opposed to the 5-5.5 player bWAR and fWAR put him at.
I also dont believe the $/WAR will increase all that dramatically in the next 5 years or so which means Beltre will still have to put up pretty good numbers in the last few years of the deal to be worth his contract.
Ugh.
I would knock off roughly 1 WAR for Beltre due to missing as much time as he did.
WAR is a counting stat. It already does this.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
Or, really, *was* what?
I mean, I understand the concept of opportunity cost, I’m just wondering how you (or bigsteve) think that WAR doesn’t account for what you’re talking about.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
What signing a non-injury prone player would do.
WAR sets the value at 0 for games missed. bigsteve is saying that value should be negative because another player likely would have played some/all of those games and accumulated positive WAR.
Why?
That’s not really logical, since the core logic of WAR is “replacement.”
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
I get that.
I’m just explaining what bigsteve was saying. I’m picking up on his argument although I’m not sure I agree with it. I need to think about it some more.
I mean, once you bring money into it,
it should start making more sense — since an Adrian Beltre who never gets on the field and thus racks up 0 WAR costs his team his entire salary, while a replacement player who plays the entire time at 0 WAR costs relatively little.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
Exactly.
And when you sign a Beltre you likely don’t have a replacement level player available to replace him if he gets injured.
Why?
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
The whole concept of "replacement"
is that if a guy goes on the DL for an entire season, a “replacement-level” player is the guy who can be picked up to replace him.
If there are no replacement-level players available who can give the team that 0 WAR, at all? Then there could be an argument that “replacement level” has been misspecified.
The funny thing there is that it probably would make Adrian Beltre more valuable.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
I get the concept of a replacement player.
I’ve just always thought, and I fully admit I can be wrong about this, that the idea of a 0 WAR player is derived from the sum of all data from players at that position. Is the average bench player really around a 0 WAR player? I always figured that starters might skew that number up a little.
Average != Replacement
Wins Above Average is not the same thing as Wins Above Replacement.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
We are talking about replacing a starter.
So wouldn’t a 0 WAR player be the average of the guys who are available to replace the 30 starters? Am I oversimplifying the concept?
As Tango's noted,
you could use average instead of replacement, and wind up in the same spot — it’s just that you’d get slightly different numbers.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
So...
Wins Above Average and Wins Above Replacement are almost the same thing? Are we splitting hairs here?
Kidding…
Heh.
As long as you’re not confused why you don’t get exactly the same numbers for WAA and WAR — rather, you get the same relationships?
Knock yerself out.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
I'm a visual guy.
I’d need to see the formula used find the 0 WAR replacement player and sift through it before I truly understand how they got there.
Finding the actual “replacement player” value is probably damn near impossible because the idea of replacement is complex. It isn’t simplying plugging in Player B for Player A. Sometimes in means Player C shifts to Player A’s spot and Player B replaced player C. I would think that if you could get the summation of all those delta’s the average would be a 0 WAR player.
I’d need a more in depth analysis (even more than what GB provided) to understand any failures in my reasoning. And don’t get me wrong, I’m sure there are.
Tom Tango
The Book
Godspeed.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
Actually, come to think of it,
I’m not sure WAR is discussed in the actual book…
So, better yet: it’s free! (And you’ll want to keep looking through for more recent discussions of WAR, replacement, average, and so on.)
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
I'll read when I have time.
Thanks for pointing me in that direction.
Not a lot of time right now. That is why I’m bouncing back and forth.
How to truly define replacement level
is the subject of much thought and debate. Here’s something I wrote that isn’t necessarily an introduction, but has some gifs that may help.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
Link
http://www.bbtia.com/home/2011/2/24/the-crucible.html
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
Did his WAR go down while he was on the DL?
If so I apologize and will have to rethink my position because i’ve been under the assumption it does not.
Does Hamilton get negative HR when he misses time?
Or does his HR count just not go up?
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
If the player never gets on the field,
his WAR is zero. He was worth nothing more than the replacement player that played for him the entire time.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
That you don't understand
what replacement level is?
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
Right.
It is not going up. Beltre played at a rate that was elite, but not quite MVP level. We talk about it as merely a very good season instead of elite because of the injuries.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
This is really funny.
You hammer WAR and $/WAR, then you use it, incorrectly, to make your point?
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
Most people
decide to assume that the inflation in value of players is offset by the long term risk the teams take on.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
If payment structure means little,
and you think Beltre will give good value in 2012, then
Do you believe Adrian Beltre will be worth 16 mil a year in year 5 and/or 6 of his current deal?
is a question that really only matters if you think that the $17M and $18M the Rangers owe Beltre in 2014 and 2015 (and/or the $16M Beltre might be owed in year 6 of his deal) are going to keep the Rangers from making other moves.
Right?
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
fwiw
I think Beltre and Hamilton will be similar in value from 2013-16.
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 4, 2012 1:47 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah,
though 3B seems to be fairly weak throughout the majors right now.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
and isn't likely to get a whole lot stronger
in the next few years, either.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
There an important "and..."
that’s missing here, or this really doesn’t address what we’re talking about — right?
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
Really?
I can see Hamilton being worth the same as Beltre over that span, but I’d put my money on Beltre being more valuable.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
You are making a lot of things equal that aren't equal.
And you are treating a lot of assumptions as facts that aren’t facts.
Same thing we do every day, Heebs.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 4, 2012 11:02 AM CST up reply actions
I just wanted to get the Pinky and the Brain song stuck in my head
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 4, 2012 11:08 AM CST up reply actions
heh....my first thought was
“Try to take over the WORLD!!!”
"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Jan 4, 2012 11:09 AM CST up reply actions
Not Exactly the Best Player in 2011
Try third in OPS for Rangers batters with over 300 at bats, just behind your favorite Adrian Beltre. This upcoming year becomes an important year for Hamilton. If he doesn’t produce better than 2010, then many teams will be out of offering 5-year, $90 million packages. Injuries plus lack of plate discipline make it debatable whether he is really an elite player.
How does Josh do on the road compared to everybody else?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
How did Beltre do on the road in 2010?
If he does well on the road in 2012 are you going to drop this argument? Why does his 2011 count and not 2010 when you universally declare that he can’t hit on the road?
That Adrian Beltre was 31 years old and playing for a big contract.
Adrian Beltre turns 33 years old in April and has a historically shitty OBP.
He’s a big-time candidate to fall off a cliff until further notice.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
That doesn't mean he's bad at hitting on the road.
It doesn’t mean that at all. In fact. In 2010 he was very good at hitting on the road.
As mentioned, that ABeltre was 31 years old.
Hitters with that kind of OBP can fall off a cliff in a hurry.
I think we started to see that erosion in Beltre last year. He can erase that perception by hitting well on the road this year.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
they can also
have big seasons of OBP
Why don't you have a nice big cup of shut the fuck up? - Lisa W 3/4/2011
2010 is too short of a time frame.
Career
Home: 3856 PA | .760 OPS
Away: 4187 PA | .840 OPS
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
What you boys fail to realize is that
Beltre turns 33 in April. He’s starting to breakdown physically and decline on the field.
The crappy season he had on the road…to me…is the first sign of erosion.
He can erase that by hitting well on the road in 2012.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
That STILL doesn't mean he can't hit on the road.
It only means that YOU think he can’t hit on the road anymore.
I'm not saying he can't hit on the road.
He just got a year older and STBF on the road last year.
I’ll STFU about it when / if he starts hitting consistently on the road this year.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
you keep bandying about
“on the road” as if all road games were the same.
he hit best (10 for 26 with 3 homers and 3 doubles) in Angels stadium
He hit .308 with 2 homers in Camden Yards.
he hit .375 in target field.
he hit .300 in Kauffman stadium
he hit .333 in Citizens bank park (at philadelphia)
he hit .318 in Yankee stadium
he hit .296 in Tropicana
he hit .276 at oakland
he hit .273 in Detroit (though a very empty .273)
his worst place to hit was, wait for it….. Seattle. what a shock. 10 games, 6 for 36 though 3 walks and 2 homers. still not very good. He also struggled in Cleveland and Houston.
um…. not thinking that he STBF at all on the road. just that he sucked against BAD teams on the road. against the elite (LAA, PHI, NY, TB) he was just fine. though only ok against Boston and Detroit.
Why don't you have a nice big cup of shut the fuck up? - Lisa W 3/4/2011
and these days
he plays about a 3rd of his away games in very pitcher-friendly parks. It is unreasonable to expect Rangers hitters not to have more severe than average home-road splits.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
One of the nice things about building your own PitchFX databases...
You can run your own queries.
Beltre’s OPS on the road by month in 2011:
Month PA AVG OBP SLG OPS APR 47 .333 .362 .644 1.006 MAY 63 .237 .270 .305 .575 JUN 78 .230 .256 .284 .540 JUL 30 .259 .300 .519 .819 SEP 61 .311 .323 .574 .897<pre> So I guess thank goodness for the soft underbelly of April, July and September pitching.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
For fun...
2011 Beltre home splits by month
Month PA AVG OBP SLG OPS APR 64 .220 .266 .441 .707 MAY 56 .234 .339 .532 .871 JUN 39 .351 .385 .676 1.061 JUL 44 .424 .455 .950 1.405 SEP 39 .474 .487 1.105 1.592
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Hamilton
That’s what concerns me- if he loses some of that bat speed and athleticism, he’s headed down the Alfonso Soriano career path. And Soriano started his decline around age 32-33.
"Those cocksuckers asking me if I thought we were gonna go up there and try to work his fuckin’ pitch count ‘cause he’s on three fuckin’ days rest…you know what I told those cocksuckers? He pitch ball, ball cross plate, we gonna knock the shit out of it."
- Wash
The players that tend to age well (thru age 36) are the true 5 tool players.
See Mays, Aaron, Clemente, Bonds, ARod, Reggie Jax, Sheffield, Winfield, Morgan.
These are all great athletes who at one time or for most of their career could do everything well. They aged quite well.
You could throw Griffey at me and that’s fair but Hamilton should age quite well.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
How many of those guys were injury prone?
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
you'll never get an answer on this
NO This is why i dont come here so much anymore. it has become a destination for certain types which i am not. Love the rangers, not this -- Mark from OC on Arrested Development
Justin Verlander? I piss on Justin Verlander --AJM
How many of those guys had better plate discipline?
Answer: all of them. In several cases, greatly so.
"Those cocksuckers asking me if I thought we were gonna go up there and try to work his fuckin’ pitch count ‘cause he’s on three fuckin’ days rest…you know what I told those cocksuckers? He pitch ball, ball cross plate, we gonna knock the shit out of it."
- Wash
Clemente
had a very similar walk rate to Beltre.
but MAN he could hit. when a guy hits .357 in the NL in 1967 at age 32, that’s saying something. The fact that he was a career .317 hitter while playing through the entire ’60s is very telling.
(from 1960-1969 he hit .328/.375/.501 in 6200+ PA’s.)
if he gets another 5 years like his last 5, he’s looking at nearly 3800 hits. not quite to where Ty was, but still very good.
Why don't you have a nice big cup of shut the fuck up? - Lisa W 3/4/2011
But they also didn't have the major injuries Josh has had
And they didn’t make crazy decisions on the field like sliding headfirst into first and into catcher’s shin guards. The five tool players you cite were not heavily injured like Josh has been.
Was Soriano not a 5 tool player?
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
You could make a case
Though he was never very good defensively.
"Those cocksuckers asking me if I thought we were gonna go up there and try to work his fuckin’ pitch count ‘cause he’s on three fuckin’ days rest…you know what I told those cocksuckers? He pitch ball, ball cross plate, we gonna knock the shit out of it."
- Wash
Well there's throwing and fielding ability
Not sure about his arm strength, but I think Soriano always had the talent to be a great fielder. I think a big part of his problem was just concentration on the field. The plays he screwed up the most were usually routine plays.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
Bonds, ARod, and Sheffield
had help. (cough, STEROIDS, cough)
Reggie was ok, though he had some stinker years towards the end there (1983, 1981, 1984)
Clemente was excellent, though his last few years did see a drop in durability (after being very durable during his prime.
Mays and Aaron were freaks. :)
Why don't you have a nice big cup of shut the fuck up? - Lisa W 3/4/2011
And if they don't extend him, the 2013 team (and beyond) are much worse.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
That implies that 2013 Hamilton and 2014 Hamilton and 2015 Hamilton etc...
would be very valuable to those teams.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
More valuable than anybody else currently with this organization.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Unlikely
Considering that’s only been the case for one year of his Rangers career.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
He was better than anybody on the team in 2008, 2010 and 2011.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
No he wasn't
In 2008, Bradley was by far the best hitter on the team and Kinsler was the overall better player. In 2010, he was the best hitter on the team. In 2011, Kinsler, Beltre, Napoli, and Andrus were better players.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
Kinsler was better than him in 2008 and 2011
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 4, 2012 11:09 AM CST up reply actions
Kinz was really good in 2008 but he stopped playing that year in mid August.
Kinz was great at home last year but if you’ll recall, he was hitting .122 on the road in late June.
He’s the lead-off hitter but was rocking a .287 OBP in late August.
The notion that Kinz was better than Josh either year you mentioned is absolutely wrong.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
Ian Kinsler road OBP in 2011 - .302
Stop it with this crap that Kinz was better than Josh last year.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Why do you assume
that road obp is the be all and end all of all stats.
do the 81 home games the team played not count or something?
Why don't you have a nice big cup of shut the fuck up? - Lisa W 3/4/2011
by iblum on Jan 4, 2012 3:31 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
he doesn't assume it
he looks for numbers that fit his narrative.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
Well......maybe........
It depends what you replace him with….Hamilton’s health is an unknown “beyond”…..it’s been discussed before but we have no idea how his body will hold up into his mid-30s because of the abuse (on and off of the field)….a drop-off could be dramatic….
I know you don’t agree with this but if he is replaced with Fielder, the drop-off would not be as great as you imagine.
"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Jan 4, 2012 10:59 AM CST up reply actions
We've also discussed Paul Molitor, who had a wicked coke problem in the 80s
and continually had health problems in his 20s.
I think he played until he was 42 and wanna say he had 225 hits as a 39 year old. The drugs ruining his body thing is a bullshit excuse.
Molitor was an outstanding player but he couldn’t carry Josh Hamilton’s jock as a baseball player.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Coke problems lead to heart problems
Crack and heroin addictions are much worse, especially considering Hamilton’s injury history up until now.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
If Hamilton was still doing heroin, you might have a point.
He hasn’t done H since when, 2005?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
I don't think you have any idea whatsoever how drugs affect your body
If you think that simply not taking drugs after 3/4 years of heavy addiction means that you’re okay, go open a book.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
You need to show your work here, though.
I’ve asked many times, here and at NMLR, and I’ve yet to have someone provide links that show what sort of damage should expect to Hamilton’s performance due to his drug use.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
And I'm not sure it is the drugs per sae,
but a compulsive behavior issue that has him making some pretty bad decisions while playing baseball. It doesn’t mean that he can’t get better at making good decisions on the field, but that is what I worry about. I hope he has a great 2012 and makes a boatload of money in free agency. I’m just not sure he will.
I'm not sure what the direct impact is
as far as problems like broken bones, pulled muscles, etc. go. There’s plenty of misinformation out there to go with what could be credible research. As far as problems with the heart, liver, etc. go, and the point that I was making to Josey in the post above, that doesn’t go away after quitting no matter what. Those are legitimate issues that Hamilton, along with many others, have to deal with as they get older.
Now with Hamilton specifically, whether its a result of the drugs or not, he has a length injury history dating back to his days in the minors. Some of those were just fluke injuries, but as he gets older, those fluke injuries are going to pile up with the wear and tear injuries.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
I think we'll never know
how much, if any, Hamilton’s substance use factored into his injuries.
I mean, the gastro thing he had several years back? I can see how that could be linked to it. But as you note, the bone/muscle/ligament/tendon stuff is a stretch.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
I don't know if its a stretch
but the problem with researching the effects on any drug is you usually have the 2 extremes trying to prove the other wrong. There’s one side trying to make it sound like instant death to prevent people from using it while the other side makes it sound like its relatively harmless.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
I've done a bunch of reading,
and I can’t find anything that provides firm evidence that would allow predictions of how the sort of substance use Hamilton was engaged in might affect his athletic performance up through, say, his mid-30s.
It’s not a matter of two extremes arguing. It’s a matter of the scientific evidence not being there. It’s really, really difficult to say how elite athletes like Hamilton will respond to long-term substance use after they’ve quit.
As a result, it’s a stretch to say that Hamilton’s substance use caused his injuries of the past few years, especially since, as you noted, it’s not as if he was Bruce Willis in “Unbreakable” even before his habits formed.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
Yeah,
even if there was data, you’d have to question how it applied to the top 0.1% in Hamilton.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
Yeah, that's my guess.
Do you mean the weird trip to the hospital for pneumonia?
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
No, there was a gastrointestinal illness.
This was the initial report. I think he was hospitalized for quite a while, and there was, I believe, some concern (or at least discussion) of the immunological correlates.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
I don't recall the Molitor discussion but
Molitor also DH’d most of the time in his later years…you would be expecting Hamilton to play in the OF the vast majority, if not all, of this contract….
"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Jan 4, 2012 11:06 AM CST up reply actions
I recall the Molitor Discussion because I brought it up.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
OK....uh, um....good for you?
"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Jan 4, 2012 11:17 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Everybody kind of stared at each other after that
because it shut down the “We don’t know what kind of long-term damage Josh has done to his body” meme immediately.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Naming one guy in the 80's
with a coke problem who ended up playing well in his 40’s doesn’t really prove a point. I could say Darryl Strawberry and even up the discussion. Or, I could say damn near every big leaguer in the 80’s probably dabbled in coke so the data isn’t really useful.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Jan 4, 2012 11:22 AM CST up reply actions
Straw never did kick drugs altogether when he was in The Show.
If Josh’s problems were ongoing, yeah, I can see the concerns but other than the one slip-up, he’s been clean that we know about.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Everyone was probably standing around looking at each other
because it’s a flawed argument….at 34, Molitor was primarily a DH….at 34 and making $18/$20 mil, I venture to say Hamilton’s team (Rangers or not) will want him doing something other than DH….and if Hamilton signs a 5/6 year deal, he will be 34 right in the middle of that contract.
"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Jan 4, 2012 11:30 AM CST up reply actions
i agree the drug damage argument is weak
otherwise, why even trade for him four years ago? that said, we’ve all watched enough baseball to know that some guys are just brittle and other guys aren’t. Josh is one of the brittle ones and he’s getting older. who knows if the drugs contributed, but he’s got some extra risk there. note: cruz and ian have this risk too
Go Rice Owls!
Would be a Matt Harrison fan, but I only like superstars
by JBImaknee on Jan 4, 2012 1:51 PM CST via Android app up reply actions
I don't agree with the people who are convinced one way or the other.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
Huh?
How do you know at this point? What if they trade him to Colorado for Drew Pomeranz and use the money saved to sign Fielder?
Its not that questionable of a statement
The money saved from trading Hamilton this year is unlikely to make an impact one way or another on Fielder. And if we trade Hamilton, its unlikely to bring back a ML caliber OF who is as good as he is.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
Trade Hamilton for Pomeranz
Then sign Fielder and Cespedes…Cespedes will not put up Hamilton production…But Prince and Cespedes or Hamilton and Moreland?
I have a hard time believing that...
…the Rangers would sign Prince Fielder but for the money Hamilton is owed this year.
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 4, 2012 11:44 AM CST up reply actions
Depends
Sign Prince and trade Josh for Greinke or Hamels?
Does that make the team worse?
Put aside whether or not either party would actually do the deal but a trade like that, coupled with a signing like Prince, wouldn’t make this team worse IMO
Josh isn't going to fetch Greinke or Hamels from god's sake.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
for*
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
And Fielder+TORP is going to be a lot more expensive than Hamilton
A huge amount more expensive at the present and in the future.
May not be THAT much more expensive AAV than Hamilton + TORP.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
Well, Fielder + TORP is also going to be much more valuable than Hamilton.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
The original argument was that trading Hamilton isn't likely to improve the 2012 club
And people are arguing it would by adding Fielder and trading Hamilton for a TORP. Fielder+TORP is significantly more expensive than the 2012 salary of Hamilton. This argument got ridiculous.
Oh, gotcha. Yeah, that's right.
Of course, there’s no way we’re going to be trading Hamilton for a 2012 TORP either, so…
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
That would be a pretty good starting block to negotiations
The minor pieces could easily be worked out if need be
The "minor pieces"? So Hamilton is going to centerpiece a deal for one of the top 10-15 starters in baseball?
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
Both Greinke and Hamels are only 1 year away from FA as well
So yeah I dont think it would take much more
I floated the idea a week or so ago of who says no to a Hamilton + Harrison for Hamels + Dom Brown. Adam said they wouldn’t do it but I think it could get the conversation started at least. I dont think it would take too much more.
I can't figure out what the Phillies think of Dom Brown.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 4, 2012 12:06 PM CST up reply actions
Agreed.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
They've fucked up his development something fierce.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
So odd.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
They'll extend him for $150M
once he’s past his prime.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
Heheheh
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
Hamilton + Harrison for Hamels and Brown
Is even less likely than Hamilton (and minor pieces) for Hamels, imo.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
And then our run production on the road dries up.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Stop stalking me.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
I'm so late to this party but oh well.
This one time in college I got my new cable hooked up and though I asked for basic cable once it was hooked up I got all the premium channels as well. For 6 months I got charged for basic cable but got every channel and then one day, poof, they were gone. I was sad and I missed the premium channels but they weren’t in my budget. Josh Hamilton is like free HBO. I’ll be sad when he’s gone but I’ll get over it because much like Six Feet Under he’s probably going to jump the shark sooner than later.
by elchicodelgado on Jan 4, 2012 4:03 PM CST up reply actions
2013 couple be really dicey at the COF spot without Hamilton.
If Fielder isn’t signed this year I’d expect a big splash at the COF spot next year. There isn’t a young COF poised to come up. Cruz is a major injury risk. The OF situation could be pretty dire at times.
I'm confident that the Rangers have enough minor league depth
to produce a greater than replacement level player or trade for one. I know we’re spoiled by this, but most teams don’t actually have All Star caliber players at every position.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 4, 2012 11:04 AM CST up reply actions
Next years OF FA crop took a huge hit when Kemp signed his extension
And the Yanks and Red Sox may be in the bidding for guys as well which ups the ante
I'm not as concerned about the Yankees any more....
They seem to be losing some steam on their bidding….first Darvish…then CJ….now Edwin Jackson is too expensive? Yankees of years past would have gotten these guys at whatever cost……
http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/yankees/post/_/id/26061/could-ejax-be-a-fit-for-the-yankees
"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Jan 4, 2012 11:56 AM CST up reply actions
Eh.
I think it’s more that they already have a very good and expensive team. Once a few more of those good players move on, they’ll get back to it.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 4, 2012 11:57 AM CST up reply actions
This was brought up a few weeks back
but I think the Yankees are at their limits more or less. They could afford whoever else they wanted, but right now they’re around their peak for where they’re okay with their payroll.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
I think they are at their peak
in terms of what they can spend and still make their owners a lot of money. I think if they got sufficiently motivated/pissed off, they could spend at a level that would bring in less profits.
I’m not positive about this because I don’t know how that new stadium was financed. But I do know that the Yankees lap most teams in terms of revenues.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 4, 2012 12:02 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah, I don't doubt that they could have afforded to moneywhip CJ or bid 75 million on Darvish
But they’ve pretty much been at the 200-215 million range for most of the past decade, so that’s my guess on where they are comfortable with the payroll maxing out at.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
But they spiked to get up there
And are almost certainly making more now than they were 5 years ago.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 4, 2012 12:06 PM CST up reply actions
How does the luxury tax work
For every million or so they spend over the limit, is it just another x amount of dollars they own in luxury tax?
Also, yeah, they’re making more money now probably but its not George Steinbrenner running things anymore either. Also, you have to think that the Yankees are at a point where if 215 million isn’t getting you a championship caliber team, then you’re doing something wrong where more money isn’t the best solution.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
I'm pretty sure that's the case.
Yeah, I think they’re more limited by roster spots and (mindless) fans willing to pay $2K/seat to see JEETAH.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
They passed up CJ and Buehrle
Why would they go after Edwin Jackson now?
Also isn’t Boras asking for something like a 5 year deal in the neighborhood of Lackey/Burnett contracts? That’s crazy price to pay for Jackson even for the Yankees.
by RangersfaninROK on Jan 4, 2012 12:01 PM CST up reply actions
The Yankees
would prefer to spend next winter when Hamels, Sanchez, Cain and others are on the market.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
and let's remember
the Yanks are hardly desperate. They already had the best run differential in MLB in 2011, they don’t need to add Edwin Jackson.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
Looks like those last two may not be on the market.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
even so
there are more good SP options potentially available next winter than there were this year. And the Yankees are also rumored to be trying to stay under the new luxury tax penalty. But really, as we’ve said, they are already a very, very good team and hardly need to make a move just because there are players available.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
I think the Yanks are saving their dough for Josh.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Based on...
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
They're saving up for another TORP, not Josh,
by RangersfaninROK on Jan 4, 2012 12:08 PM CST up reply actions
Swish has one more year left on his deal (I think) and the Yanks laid fairly
low this off-season.
They saw what he can do in 2010…they treated him like motherfucking Barry Bonds…and if the Rangers are fucking stupid enough to let him hit free agency, they’re going to pounce.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
They want a TORP far more than a COF
And I mean FAR more. And looking at how Cashman is running the team these days, chances are slim that they shell out cash to get both Josh and a TORP.
by RangersfaninROK on Jan 4, 2012 12:17 PM CST up reply actions
I don't believe the Yanks thought they had a spot open for a
game-changer that was available this year.
They have Tex so they didn’t go after Pujols or Prince.
Next year Swisher is free so they’ll have an opening and Josh is a game-changer.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
CJ was available
Is he not a game changer?
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
CJ is a game-changer.
2.50 ERA on the road the last 2 years (210 IPs)…don’t know why the Yanks wouldn’t want him.
I completely understand why they wouldn’t blow $ 120 million on Yu.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
And would the Yankees not be very, very happy with Prince at DH?
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
Do you really think the Yanks want another expensive guy who is pretty much a lock to be injury prone?
Because they already have one of those at 3B. And they are really not happy about it.
by RangersfaninROK on Jan 4, 2012 12:25 PM CST up reply actions
Before the 2011 season...
…PECOTA had Josh Hamilton has averaging about 3 wins a year from 2013-17 (the likely term of his next contract).
If the Yankees want to pay him $20 million a year for that, let them.
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 4, 2012 12:31 PM CST up reply actions
And who are the Rangers going to use to replace Josh?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
I don't know right now
We don’t have to worry about that for ten more months.
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 4, 2012 12:37 PM CST up reply actions
well
it is alwys good to worry about your team one year from now… but one shouldn’t lose sleep over it.
i would like seeing one of our surplus starters turned into a cof option though
Go Rice Owls!
Would be a Matt Harrison fan, but I only like superstars
by JBImaknee on Jan 4, 2012 1:56 PM CST via Android app up reply actions
The nice thing about being a fan, not a GM,
is that I can wonder/worry about it, but not too much, since if in ten months Daniels has really screwed up the outfield situation, I can vent here and at BBTiA about it, and feel a bit better.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
No player in the game is irreplaceable.
The Cards let go of the best single player in the game this winter, but by adding Beltran and having Waino come back they will have a better team this year. If Josh walks, then the Rangers will find a way to make up for his production.
by RangersfaninROK on Jan 4, 2012 12:40 PM CST up reply actions
Yep
Cliff Lee left. Didn’t seem to hurt the Rangers much.
"Those cocksuckers asking me if I thought we were gonna go up there and try to work his fuckin’ pitch count ‘cause he’s on three fuckin’ days rest…you know what I told those cocksuckers? He pitch ball, ball cross plate, we gonna knock the shit out of it."
- Wash
god I hope so.
I hope that after the 2012 Rangers Championship season, the Yankees sign Josh Hamilton to a Jason Werth type contract and we all walk away giggling.
assuming we’ve already signed Prince.
Why don't you have a nice big cup of shut the fuck up? - Lisa W 3/4/2011
Some second hand Yu news I posted in the OT thread for those of you who avoid that part of town -
A contractor I work with also runs a valet service in downtown Foat Wuth and one of his accounts is Del Frisco’s. He said last night the Del Frisco’s manager came running out to him saying "Nolan’s about to be here with Yu Darvish, get ready!"
Sho nuff, the first SUV pulls up, out steps Nolan and some other folks (contractor friend is a marginal baseball fan, so he didn’t know faces). Then a second vehicle with Mike Maddux. Finally, a brand spanking new Cadillac Escalade pulls up and out steps Darvish and some other Japanese gents.
Contractor friend says to Darvish "Welcome to Texas!" and shakes his hand, Darvish says thank you.
When parking the caddy, contractor friend glances in the back seat to see some Google maps with directions to Del Frisco’s and, get this, discarded bags from Sonic.
I LOL’d.
CS,B
"Napoli is Al Fucking Swearingen, pissing out the dull lump of Angel hubris from his penile shaft like a pus-slathered kidney stone." - TT from HH
Did Nolan say anything?
Afterall, the only thing that matters is what does or doesn’t come out of his mouth.
Nolan...how much are you gonna spend on dinner tonight?
“Oh, ’bout 35000.00…”
"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Jan 4, 2012 10:33 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
My contractor friend
says Nolan is always very nice, personable, and tips well (he’s valet’d Nolan’s SUV there before, apparently Nolan frequents Del Friscos).
No inside info tips, just cash.
:^)
"Napoli is Al Fucking Swearingen, pissing out the dull lump of Angel hubris from his penile shaft like a pus-slathered kidney stone." - TT from HH
by DonDrapersOPS on Jan 4, 2012 10:36 AM CST up reply actions
Yea he said he was tired of the damn snow monkeys
Go big or go home!!
by average joe blow on Jan 4, 2012 12:47 PM CST up reply actions
I'm surprised
that Yu wasn’t wearing a cowboy hat and some boots. the Japanese I’ve dealt with seem to go gaga for western wear every time they come here.
they also want tickets to the Mesquite Rodeo.
Why don't you have a nice big cup of shut the fuck up? - Lisa W 3/4/2011
I would like the Rangers to go after
Cespedes and let him and Martin play everyday in AAA together and get comfortable. Then in 2013 we could let the 2 cubans take over in LF and CF. This would also involve us getting Prince to fill the whole that would be left by Hamilton and going all in for 2012 with a mix Gentry and Bourbon in CF.
How about Soler and Cespedes
and we can roll out an entire Cuban outfield.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Jan 4, 2012 10:27 AM CST up reply actions
Then they turn out to be Dominicans
Not the same…
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Jan 4, 2012 11:04 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
So we're shelling out for Cespedes AND Prince?
Yeah, that’s not happening.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
Would you
rather pay Hamilton 6/90 or Cespedes 6/35. I would rather go younger and go all in for this year.
I prefer Cespedes.
But Cespedes isn’t signing for 6/35. He’ll sign for quite a bit more. And the Rangers already invested a lot in their CF of the future. Cespedes doesn’t make much sense for this club.
I have heard
around 5/30 for Cespedes, which I would do with and option for 10mill in the 6th. From everything I have heard he is a 5 tool player he could easily slide into LF w/ Martin in CF for a really good defensive OF.
If it's 5/30 for Cespedes
I jump een eet.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 4, 2012 10:56 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Rec'd for opulence
"And the Yankees slap everyone around with their money penis, but where has it gotten them?"- Jorge C
by WildcatPhoenix on Jan 4, 2012 2:41 PM CST up reply actions
Or sign
Cespedes and trade hamilton to Atlanta for a young pitcher and young OF and roll with Cespedes in LF. How about Delgado, Salcedo and Terdoslavich from Atlanta?
Sounds like something they'd never do for 1 year of Hamilton.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
Atlanta seems much more intent on moving
Prado and Jurrjens. That was their offer for Adam Jones.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Jan 4, 2012 10:51 AM CST up reply actions
x
Ken_Rosenthal Ken Rosenthal
Sources: Talks between #Orioles, #Braves over A. Jones are “nowhere.” Braves will not trade one of top four young SPs for Jones. MORE #MLB
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
So no chance they do it for one year of Hamilton.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Jan 4, 2012 10:53 AM CST up reply actions
Because the Rangers already have 6 starting pitchers (7 if you count Feldman)
And 2 starting outfielders.
Trading Cruz for a TORP means you’ve got 7 or 8 starters and 1 starting-caliber outfielder.
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 4, 2012 10:42 AM CST up reply actions
Or because the type of teams trading TORPs aren't looking for players like Cruz in return.
by LiamP on Jan 4, 2012 10:54 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Maybe if he had a better health history,
but if he did, then nobody would want to trade him.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 4, 2012 10:58 AM CST up reply actions
It's the years of team control.
If he was healthier, he’d also be more expensive making him less attractive.
by LiamP on Jan 4, 2012 11:03 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Would you trade Cruz for Marteen?
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 4, 2012 11:05 AM CST up reply actions
In most circumstances, though, no.
His injury history kind of kills it. Im not the biggest fan of Perez but I’d aim higher.
by LiamP on Jan 4, 2012 11:20 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Yeah,
just a thought exercise.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 4, 2012 11:55 AM CST up reply actions
I think his value to the Rangers is greater than his trade value.
Cruz wouldn’t be the major asset going over in a trade for a TORP.
Likelihood that Martin will be the starting CF this season?
40%….50%….100%?
"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Jan 4, 2012 10:35 AM CST reply actions
At some point in '12?
100% barring injury.
To begin the year? 15%.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Jan 4, 2012 10:38 AM CST up reply actions
You still leaving the light on for Borbon?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
I suspect the Rangers go with a Borbon/Gentry platoon to start the season
I’d like to see them trade for Marlon Byrd and put him in CF to start the year, but that doesn’t appear likely.
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 4, 2012 10:45 AM CST up reply actions
Any word on how Borbon is doing in winter ball?
Is the ankle holding up well?
"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Jan 4, 2012 10:49 AM CST up reply actions
He seems to be fading
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 4, 2012 10:52 AM CST up reply actions
I think Gentry's defense will be good enough
for whatever can be reasonably expected from his bat.
I’m good with him in CF this season while Martin cooks in AAA.
I doubt that Byrd is enough better
than the platoon to make the acquisition cost worth it. Might as well roll with Gentry and Borbon and hope Borbon works up some trade value.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
Draft Thoughts.
I’ll be very interested to see how the switch to the new power surpressing bats will affect the draft status of high school players. Hitters are going to struggle this year for the most part and pitchers numbers are going to improve drastically.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Jan 4, 2012 10:47 AM CST reply actions
Bad hitters are going to struggle.
The new bats are good way to thin the herd and it will easier to see who the good hitters really are.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
I'm telling you,
the good hitters will struggle. These new bats are ridiculous. Worse than wood. You are going to see some pitchers with ERA’s in the .30 area and a ton of 1-0, 2-1 games as long as teams can field.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Jan 4, 2012 10:52 AM CST up reply actions
No, those bats are not worse than wood.
The really smart hitters have been using wood bats for a while and the new bats since at least last summer.
What you don’t see are shitty hitters going yard any more.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
They have similar trampoline effect,
and a smaller sweet spot. You will see HS guys who can’t hit the ball out of the infield.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Jan 4, 2012 11:05 AM CST up reply actions
Most HS guys aren't very good hitters.
The good hitters will find a way to the top. They won’t hit the ball as far as often but it will be much easier to distinguish who has actual talent.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Right,
which was my second point. Pitching numbers are going to look ridiculous this year. It’s going to be tough to determine who can actually pitch and who just gets out the bottom feeders of a lineup.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Jan 4, 2012 11:20 AM CST up reply actions
Teams that have pitchers who throw strikes on teams that can play
good defense are going to dominate, especially in late February / March.
Fucking Pussy Small Ball is going to rule the roost.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
It's not that hard...
for a trained scout to see what pitchers are talented and which ones are not. 95 on the corner is 95 on the corner. Movement is movement. A biting hook is a biting hook. They don’t use WAR in high school evaluations.
There are very few really smart hitters then...
because few high school players use them since they aren’t game legal in season play. I talked with a AA player a few years ago who hit pretty well, and he participated in the NCAA World Series. He said he got used to playing with wooden bats by playing in the Cape Cod summer league where they used wooden bats. I agree hitters would be smart to use wooden bats, but few if any high schoolers will.
Yes
they are. Ask any scout and look at any test run for them. This is going to make scouting more difficult
"JD gets complete blame or credit for what happens in 2010 and I think Nolan wants it that way. JD is paid to be a real GM and needs to start performing like one." - Josey Wales
JW doesn't need to ask scouts.
He already knows everything.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Jan 4, 2012 3:13 PM CST up reply actions
Yes, they are absolutely worse than wood bats
No question if the cost was close to equal, most high schoolers would be using would bats rather than the BBCOR bats.
Small ball and defense will be the name of the game.
by SaltyDawg on Jan 4, 2012 3:08 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Wait, what?
Are you saying that high school players would now use wood bats over the new bats except for the fact that they are too expensive? Or that they aren’t allowed? I don’t know that they aren’t allowed in high school. Wood bats are allowed in little league.
Same shit, different day.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
Hustle
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 4, 2012 11:08 AM CST up reply actions
Hustle
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 4, 2012 11:08 AM CST up reply actions
HARD
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 4, 2012 11:09 AM CST up reply actions
Yeah....but this time it was on a different topic and I thought there might be a chance.....
/definition of insanity – doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results/
"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Jan 4, 2012 11:10 AM CST up reply actions
No, the "trade Hamilton now or sign him up forever" thing has been beaten to death, and hoops still doesn't understand the basic premise of the discussion.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
i was hoping that discussion was put to rest with AJM's write up a few weeks ago.
"God dammit TAG I swear to God if you keep this "It was a close play" shit up all night I will send you cookies made from my own shit" -River Fenix 8/26/2011
"this is a big reason I decided not to convert to Islam now if it was 72 skanks? Different story, my friend" Bob Loblaw 9/2/2011
by I am Neftali Feliz on Jan 4, 2012 11:14 AM CST up reply actions
Don't be silly.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
I fully understand the premise.
A lot of people in here want it both ways…they don’t want to trade Josh because he’s a mega-talented superstar.
Mega-talented superstars help you win games.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
That's only wanting it one way.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
He understands nothing.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
Apparently, you don't.....
"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Jan 4, 2012 11:21 AM CST up reply actions
Understand?
You keep using that word, I don’t think it means what you think it means.
At least I get to see the Rangers when they play the Twins now.
I'm really, REALLY glad
I missed this thread today.
"And the Yankees slap everyone around with their money penis, but where has it gotten them?"- Jorge C
by WildcatPhoenix on Jan 4, 2012 2:44 PM CST up reply actions
I'm starting to obsess about Andrew McCutchen again.
Let’s go get him.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
I just don't see any way they trade him.
He’s basically their only draw.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 4, 2012 12:02 PM CST up reply actions
What do you think would take to get McCutchen?
Because I think there is no way the Bucs let him go unless they are presented with some ridiculous package.
Also if they do let him go then they don’t deserve to exist as a franchise. Trading McCutchen would be like pissing in the face of what’s left of their fanbase.
by RangersfaninROK on Jan 4, 2012 12:05 PM CST up reply actions
I think the price for McCutchen approaches, but does not reach, the price for Kershaw.
But he’s the kind of guy I’d empty the farm for. Lock him up to a 6/50MM extension
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
I agree on the price.
I’m just not convinced that McCutchen is THE guy that this team needs to get even if it means paying that insane price.
by RangersfaninROK on Jan 4, 2012 12:27 PM CST up reply actions
I like watching him play, though.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
5.5 WAR in his age 24 season. We get him right at the dawn of his peak and have him for what are likely to he his most productive years.
He plays at a position of need (Leonys skeptic here), and he has awesome hair.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
The last point should have been your opening and closing argument.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
Also wears my favorite number.
There’s nothing not to love about this kid.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
And he smiles...while playing for the PIRATES
I mean, can you imagine how much he’d smile playing for the Rangers???
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
That sums it up nicely.
"The Angels are like the villain in the movie that isn't dead until he's been stabbed 150 times in the bath tub, yet he still might come back up one more time." - Eric Nadel
That's what I figured.
"...out of the shadows of unprecedented success, the sun shines down upon this team waiting to thrill anew." - ghostofErikThompson
Grantland
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7422765/the-myth-small-market-window
There is a nugget of truth behind this Window obsession. Smaller-revenue teams have a tougher time signing premium free agents, or retaining their own top players past their initial six years of team control. That puts extra pressure on these poorer teams to bring up a bunch of great prospects all at once, then hope they get good at the same time before they get expensive.
But far more often it’s a bullshit excuse. It’s a vague, faraway goal that always seems several years out of reach. It’s a cover for cheap, greedy ownership, lousy scouting, drafting, and player development, and myopic trades. It’s a weak attempt to placate a fan base screwed over by years of management incompetence and indifference.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
Different argument,
but I really enjoyed that one.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
It think it's more like two facets of the same argument -- and thanks.
Garoon: Banned on LSB. Available Only Via Supplement.
Heh.
When he talks about ideas, Lewis can sound like a hedge-fund manager discussing a great trade. "It’s kind of amazing that Moneyball was available to be written at all," he says, sitting in his office in a bungalow off the back of his house in Berkeley. "Billy Beane’s doing this thing that is totally original, under the noses of the mainstream media," he said. "That amazed me that opportunity existed." Part of the reason, he came to realize, was the relationship between sports reporters and their subjects. "It is amazing how much contempt there is for the professional media that surrounds any given enterprise," he says. "I find it all the time. Silicon Valley entrepreneurs think the tech journalists are all stupid. The sports people think that about the sports journalists. They don’t say that to the sports journalists, because they want the sports journalists to be nice to them. But the level of contempt is very high. You need to kind of cut through that," he says.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
Heh.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
That's from this, by the way:
http://nymag.com/print/?/news/features/michael-lewis-2011-10/
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
Grr.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
disagree
Having covered MLB and other subjects in a past journalism life (but I’ll stick to MLB here), athletes can think of reporters as a nuisance if they have no idea who you are. I wouldn’t chalk it all up to contempt, because you can’t have that if you’re an unknown quantity. If they don’t know you you’re just a nuisance and will be forgotten as soon as you end the interview. I’ve heard many reporters say – hey, I talked to you at the All-Star game last year, remember? Trying to be chummy to set a good mood. And the player looks at him like – who the fuck are you?
Some athletes are pricks, some are not. Gee, what a surprise. The more you know them, the more they trust you, the more access you have, etc. It’s like this with any relationship in life. If you are perceived as fair then you can establish a good, professional relationship with players, scouts, owners, etc. I know national media people who are the biggest fucking ego-driven assholes in the world, too. (Most are not.) You’re never gonna be a player’s best friend, but that’s not your job anyway. Although I’ve known people who want to be in baseball more than cover it, and if you have that outlook you do a bad job. People will respect you if you treat them fairly, aren’t a jackass, aren’t trying to suck up to them. If you’ve been around for a while and have a stellar reputation, athletes will respect you even if they don’t know you personally.
There’s a pecking order for media in the eyes of athletes and everyone else within baseball, (which is pretty much the same for any other subject):
1. Internet people share bottom run for now – with those in baseball as well as dinosaur media. This is already changing, though.
1a. Newspaper people are bottom rung. It’s not 1935 any more, no one gives a shit about newspapers.
1b. Radio people are second to bottom, unless it’s a former player or HOFer or Steve Busby-type.
2. Local TV is treated less shitty.
3. National print/radio is treated less shitty. Baseball America, however, will get you access to anyone in any front office faster than Joe Blow from the NY Times.
4. National TV is treated better
5. ESPN treated great
5a. MLB Network treated great.
by Colonel Travis on Jan 4, 2012 3:42 PM CST up reply actions
#5 is pretty conclusive evidence that both sides (media and players) consist primarily in idiots.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
You've been great lately.
Crackin me up.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
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