Thursday a.m. Rangers stuff
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 5, 2012 8:34 AM CST
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PrintT.R. Sullivan has a story laden with quotes from Jon Daniels about the state of things this offseason. Sullivan writes that the Rangers aren't going to sign both Yu Darvish and Prince Fielder, and that the Rangers are still talking long-term extensions with several players, but that a deal with Mike Napoli is apparently not going to happen.
Evan Grant writes that Mike Olt will get some time at first base this spring. Before folks jump to conclusions on this, I'd suggest it is something to increase his versatility and give the Rangers some options should someone get hurt or struggle, rather than an indication that any sort of permanent move is in Olt's future.
Richard Durrett looks at who the options at first base on the free agent market other than Prince Fielder are, and it isn't an impressive group...basically, if you aren't going to sign Fielder, you probably don't want to sign a free agent first baseman.
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Come on Prince
One year deal with Texas. You know you want it.
Go Rice Owls!
Would be a Matt Harrison fan, but I only like superstars
I guess I need to start accepting the fact that Fielder won't be here
and hope that Moreland’s injury was the reason he struggled last season….
"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Jan 5, 2012 8:48 AM CST up reply actions
moreland struggled in the majors because hes mitch moreland.
"God dammit TAG I swear to God if you keep this "It was a close play" shit up all night I will send you cookies made from my own shit" -River Fenix 8/26/2011
"this is a big reason I decided not to convert to Islam now if it was 72 skanks? Different story, my friend" Bob Loblaw 9/2/2011
by I am Neftali Feliz on Jan 5, 2012 8:52 AM CST up reply actions 4 recs
Positive....thinking....IaNF!!!!
"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Jan 5, 2012 8:55 AM CST up reply actions
That's why he struggled so much in 2010 and the first couple of months of 2011
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
I don't think he'll be a top 10 1B
but I do think that he has a better floor than what we saw last year. I’m expecting something like an .820 OPS out of him. My concern is if he can improve defensively because its not too helpful to the Rangers if our legitimate 1B isn’t much better than our C our UIF at 1st.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
mitch moreland is who/what he is
he isnt a ~120 wRC+ guy.
he isnt a first division starter
he is (maybe?) a second division starter. we are talking about a guy with a career (only 150ish PAs at MLB level) with a 57 wRC+ vs LHP.
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
I'm not expecting him to be good against lefties
But I think he can be a 120 wRC+ guy against righties at least and not be so terrible against LHP as he was last season. Right now, Moreland has a 110 wRC+ in his short career against righties. And with Napoli and Young, we don’t need him to do much against lefties.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
what has moreland ever done to show he can hit LHP at even an 80 wRC+?
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
My hope is that he can improve a bit on the crappiness against lefties that he was in 09 and 2010 pre-injury
I don’t recall the exact numbers last year, but I remember he was higher than a 56 wRC+ earlier in the year. I don’t know if I even expect him at an 80 wRC+, but I don’t want him starting a game at 1st against a lefty if we can avoid it. Part of the problem last season was the injuries that forced him into the lineup against lefties.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
moreland through 181 games
has 1.1 WAR on fangraphs.
this puts him in the same company as:
garrett jones (300 games)
adam laroche (194 g)
kendry morales (IN 52 GAMES!!!!!!!!!!!)
jason giambi (151g)
russ branyan is at 1.7 WAR in 177g
i dont know if moreland is going to be a 120 wRC+ guy vs LHP, and even if he is — he is a platoon guy at best then?
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
He's a 110 wRC+ guy with like half of that playing time coming with a dmaaged wrist.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
i am not totally sure, period, that he is a 100+ wRC+ guy
181 games, 1.1 WAR = pretty sad no matter how you look at it
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Jan 5, 2012 10:21 AM CST up reply actions
So you think the FO
is just incompetent when it comes to projecting Moe?
Look at what he did pre-wrist injury
173 PAs in the 2010 regular season with an 118 OPS+/117 wRC+. He then had 51 PAs in the posteason with a 138 wRC+. So through 224 PAs in 2010 total, he was looking pretty damn good with a fair amount of walks and not too many Ks.
I can’t find when the wrist injury started and I’m not sure if the Rangers are even sure, but he managed a 142 wRC+ in April 2011 and a 133 wRC+ in May 2011 (181 PAs in that time). He started struggling in June and things went from bad to worse after that. But until that point, you had 405+ PAs where Moreland was looking outstanding while nothing really stood out as being a fluke (unless you consider his good performance a fluke).
Now this isn’t me trying to convince you he’s a 130-140 wRC+ type hitter, but a huge chunk of his career to date has shown that he can hit very well. A slump was inevitable and would knock him down some, but I think the huge decline that was so drastically different from what he had done to date was largely due to the wrist injury. I definitely think he’s better than a 1.1 WAR player.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
by Gdawg on Jan 5, 2012 11:48 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Don't remember exactly when either but..
it was probably about the time he started wearing a wrist wrap and stopped crushing fastballs.
There’s gonna be a lot of people that will hope that others forget about how much crap they’ve talked about Moreland. And that will be by May 1st.
Oh God, Chris Shelton.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
It took me a minute to remember his name at all.
I just kept thinking, “Come on, FP….you know…..the shitty ginger!?”
"All of them?"
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
Heheheh
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
Before we found out about the wrist injury...
I looked at his PitchFX data to see if people were pitching him differently.
There was no appreciable difference in pitch types or locations other than an increase in fastballs.
What killed Mitch was he lost the ability to hit fastballs as the season progressed.
Now that we know he had a wrist injury… that makes a lot more sense.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
do you think he is a 120 wRC+ guy?
do you think he is a platoon player?
do you think he can hit lefties?
what kind of player do you think moreland is?
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
I don't know.
I think he might be able to be a 120 wRC+ guy… but I wouldn’t expect it. Probably more 110 to 115.
I know he can’t hit lefties and I doubt he ever will with much success.
That by definition makes him a platoon candidate.
I think if he completely heals from the wrist injury with no lasting effects he might be able to be in the middle to bottom of the pack among 1B. Which is better than being the worst starting 1B that he was last year.
I also think that he is very very cheap.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
"I also think that he is very very cheap."
This shouldn’t be overlooked when we’re talking about who do we pay the big bucks to as Napoli, Cruz, and Hamilton reach FA.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
Marlins need another starter...
If we’re out on Prince, it’s time to look at LoMo.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
Marlins have put out the word...
That LoMo and Stanton are untouchable this year.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Also...
They just traded for Zambrano to be that other starter, no?
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Oh right.
:(
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
Moreland
crushed LHP in the minors, from LowA to OKC. There is reason to believe that he can hit lefties, when healthy.
Did he really crush them?
I thought I remembered that he was basically neutral in his splits vs. RHP and LHP.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
From DriveLineBaseball.com
http://mlsplits.drivelinebaseball.com/mlsplits/playerinfo/519048
RHP LHP Year Level PA OPS PA OPS -------------------------------- 2007 SS 86 .677 30 .797 2008 A 385 .962 142 .882 2009 A+ 137 .985 53 1.110 2009 AA 241 .832 84 .955 2010 AAA 310 .881 91 .815
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
crushing LHP in the minors
to a less than 60 wRC+ in the majors
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Jan 5, 2012 10:27 AM CST up reply actions
so he's healthy for 2 months
and you think you can proclaim that Moe can’t hit lefties. Did you even know that he crushed lefties in all of his full season stops, to a tune of about .900 OPS/25% LD rate? There is plenty of evidence that Moe can hit lefties and it appears that the FO thinks so too.
Again,
not plenty.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 5, 2012 11:20 AM CST up reply actions
In 2011 by month
RHP LHP Month PA OPS PA OPS -------------------------- APR 70 1.035 16 .250 MAY 58 1.041 37 .618 JUN 67 .772 16 .500 JUL 68 .568 24 .733 AUG 88 .767 19 .632 SEP 39 .410 10 .522
SSS for those first two months as you said… but I don’t think injury was the issue. I will be surprised if Moreland ever hits LHP above a .700 OPS… he might. But it would surprise me.
P.S. Having your own PitchFX database is the awesomest. Being able to do multiple splits if a few seconds rules.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Found it.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/estimating-hitter-platoon-skill/
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 5, 2012 11:37 AM CST up reply actions
Should also add for 2010.
RHP LHP
Year PA OPS PA OPS
-———————————-
2010 150 .869 23 .604
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
The ever important pre tags...
RHP LHP Year PA OPS PA OPS -------------------------- 2010 150 .869 23 .604
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Was it hard to set that up?
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
Marginally.
I think it would be very very very difficult to set up as a non programmer / non database person.
If you have no experience in either of those things… solving the hurdles that come your way could be way too tough.
I used Mike Fast’s recommendations to get started… perl scripts and a mysql database. I had no experience with perl prior to this and only limited mysql experience. But I’ve been a programmer for over a decade so getting past the learning curve was fairly quick.
But installing perl, re-writing half the scripts because they were too damn fragile, and adding new database elements to track things like who the catcher was for each pitch and the game status aren’t things I would expect a non programmer to be comfortable enough to do just from the blog entries.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Cool, good stuff
I haven’t used perl much either (had one class where I needed to do one basic program with it), but I’ve gotten pretty good with SQL stuff and MySQL is my favorite SQL database to use. I tried looking at doing this once before, but got side tracked with other things.
Is this the recommendations you used to get started?
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
The problem with this kind
of projection is that it is completely unmoored from the scouting reports on the kid. I haven’t read anything that suggests he has a huge weakness in his hit tool that make him unable to hit LHP. Given the FO’s stance on Moe during the offseason, I have to think that they do not agree with you, that is to say, they do not believe that he is merely a platoon hitter. Although MiL stats are very difficult to project, it is much easier to do when scouting reports are wedded to statistical analysis and I have to believe that the ORG is much more capable of this than you are. For your claim to have any merit you would have to explain WHY Moe can’t hit lefties. Can you do that? If not, then you are only 50% there, nay, not even that, given the SSS and complete context of that data set (injured player).
Where are these scouting reports?
It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they briefly mention it and take it as assumed. Moreland’s limited number of PA against LHP suggest they aren’t exactly confident he can hit LHP.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 5, 2012 12:07 PM CST up reply actions
Why can't he hit LHP?
The same reason most LHB can’t… they see very little of it and of very little quality throughout their entire amateur and minor league careers.
The class of LHP at the major league level blows away and LHP that Moreland had ever seen.
As GB mentions… where are these scouting reports?
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
There were good
reports from JC (in 08-09), postive stuff from Parksie, BA profiles, tidbits from Law, Churchill, and Grey. The only negative that I saw mentioned from Grey (AFL, 2009) was that his bat speed might be an issue but hadn’t been so far because he had such a good approach and feel for hitting. I never thought of him as more than a fringe-average 1b (.740-780) ceiling wise but I never heard a single report that suggested he would struggle so much vs LHP.
So what do you make of the rhetoric coming out of the FO about Moreland being “our 1b” and what not? Do you think what they are really saying is that our 1b production will be fine with Moreland platooning with Naps and Young? That is the only thing that makes sense to me….
I think that's the most reasonable thing to think.
This FO is so tricksy that it’s hard to predict what they’ll do at all.
The biggest thing I take away from their public statements about Mitch is they don’t want to undercut a young player’s confidence coming off an injury in case they don’t find a reasonable improvement.
I think the most likely outcome is that Mitch and Young / Napoli mostly platoon 1B next year unless something the Rangers can’t say no to comes along.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Yeah
I’m thinking that are talking about 1b production and as you say, being supportive, given how much he struggled.
Minor league production does not always translate at the major league level.
How’s Chris Davis doing these days?
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
You don't say.
And weak-minded comps aren’t usually effective.
The bar you have to reach statistically
to show that you can hit LHP as a LHB is quite high.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 5, 2012 11:20 AM CST up reply actions
You're going by that thing was put out last year, right?
That the league average in platoon disadvantage should be substituted for X-1000, X being a player’s platoon-disadvantaged splits for less than 1000 PAs?
My mind just says throw ball throw hard and strike. - Marteen
I don't know remember the exact numbers right now,
but yeah, that’s the basic concept.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 5, 2012 11:29 AM CST up reply actions
Precisely
and there is not enough data to make a definitive statement about Moe’s hit tool vs ML LHP. So I’m arguing against match and KOK who seem to think there is. His MiL track record and the scouting reports all indicate that he is NOT a platoon hitter. You seem to agree, obliquely.
Link to scouting reports that show he isn't a platoon candidate?
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Also Goyo...
If it makes you feel better, I will amend my statement of “I know he can’t hit LHP” to:
He has yet to show he can hit LHP, injured or healthy, at the ML level. In 2010 and his first two months of 2011 had severe platoon splits.
The level of silly LHP has made him look to this point of his ML career makes me very skeptical he’ll ever hit LHP at the ML level.
I am very wary of minor league data as relevant to projecting major league success for any batter.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
I don't project
players solely on their MiL #s. In this case, Jason Coles’ reports on Moreland always noted what great, hard contact he made vs LHP so I assumed that was a projectable skill set due to his good approach and feel for hitting. By contrast, I would not have made the same projection for Chris Davis using his minor league splits due to his noticeable flaws: poor approach, lack of pitch recognition, low walk rate, high SO, inability to make adjustments, poor 2 strike approach…
I've seen minor league numbers used for this
but I’m not certain it should be.
There are scouting reports that suggest he can hit LHP?
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 5, 2012 11:36 AM CST up reply actions
xx
I also think that he is very very cheap.
truth
huge success for where he was drafted too
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Jan 5, 2012 10:27 AM CST up reply actions
110 to 115 sounds about right.
Shame he isn’t RHB.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 5, 2012 11:19 AM CST up reply actions
And to add...
I’m not saying Mitch is going to go out there and be awesome… or even good.
Who knows how he’ll respond from the surgery or how it affects his swing in the short and long term?
Just that I think his struggles were more related to the injury than the league adjusting to him.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
reccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccc
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
At one time last year, LSB people were talking about voting for 1B All Star.
He definitely dropped off, but I don’t think he merits the implication that he will always be less than an average player at first base. And that’s why I won’t rec this comment and I am somwhat surprised that others have recced it. My guess they are bitter former fans of Chris Davis.
Hey now
You fellas all had me resigned to never seeing Yu Darvish in a Rangers uniform. Maybe the Bob Simpson Money Penis ® has not yet run dry?
"And the Yankees slap everyone around with their money penis, but where has it gotten them?"- Jorge C
by WildcatPhoenix on Jan 5, 2012 9:06 AM CST up reply actions
I wish Prince would just kneel down in front of Bob Simpson
and recieve a Peter North style drenching of money.
Arching ropes of $100 bills, covering every brown fold of Prince’s body in pools of wealth.
"It’s Advil and beef in the Texas Rangers, you yankee bastard."
- Nolan Ryan
seattle before baltimore... baltimore is not going to sign prince fielder.
"God dammit TAG I swear to God if you keep this "It was a close play" shit up all night I will send you cookies made from my own shit" -River Fenix 8/26/2011
"this is a big reason I decided not to convert to Islam now if it was 72 skanks? Different story, my friend" Bob Loblaw 9/2/2011
by I am Neftali Feliz on Jan 5, 2012 8:51 AM CST up reply actions
I think it's down to Washington unless Seattle just throws money at him....
The Nats could be contenders this season and for years to come….Seattle, uh….well….
"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Jan 5, 2012 8:55 AM CST up reply actions
with no other competition cant washington say take it or leave it
"God dammit TAG I swear to God if you keep this "It was a close play" shit up all night I will send you cookies made from my own shit" -River Fenix 8/26/2011
"this is a big reason I decided not to convert to Islam now if it was 72 skanks? Different story, my friend" Bob Loblaw 9/2/2011
by I am Neftali Feliz on Jan 5, 2012 9:54 AM CST up reply actions
I thought you had had inside sources that said it was a done deal to the Rangers?
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
it is. when washington says 7 125 take it or leave it...
JD says.. hey PF. 8 140 or 4 105… and this delicious juicy bratwurst.
"God dammit TAG I swear to God if you keep this "It was a close play" shit up all night I will send you cookies made from my own shit" -River Fenix 8/26/2011
"this is a big reason I decided not to convert to Islam now if it was 72 skanks? Different story, my friend" Bob Loblaw 9/2/2011
by I am Neftali Feliz on Jan 5, 2012 10:40 AM CST up reply actions
Yes
Northern Virginia's all time world champion Rangers fan of all time and all of Northern Virginia, and the rest of Virginia too. Mayor of Greatestfanville, Virginia.
Adam J Morris, halfassedly pretending to be interested in my thoughts, goals, and overall self esteem since late 2005.
They don't know there's no other competition....
You know Boras is out there telling them there are 8 other teams interested in Fielder just waiting to make an offer….
"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Jan 5, 2012 9:57 AM CST up reply actions
I'm gonna miss Blanco....I really liked that guy....
"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Jan 5, 2012 8:45 AM CST reply actions
Vaya con Dios, Mr. White
"And the Yankees slap everyone around with their money penis, but where has it gotten them?"- Jorge C
by WildcatPhoenix on Jan 5, 2012 9:03 AM CST up reply actions
Not sure where you got that....their main objective now is signing Darvish.....
"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Jan 5, 2012 8:52 AM CST up reply actions
You didn't hear?
He died.
Northern Virginia's all time world champion Rangers fan of all time and all of Northern Virginia, and the rest of Virginia too. Mayor of Greatestfanville, Virginia.
Adam J Morris, halfassedly pretending to be interested in my thoughts, goals, and overall self esteem since late 2005.
by Brian Thomas on Jan 5, 2012 10:56 AM CST up reply actions
Beaten to death with a raccoon, very tragic.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
Beaten to death with a frozen armadillo.
by kchorton on Jan 5, 2012 11:08 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
I blame it on Nolan's Snow Monkeys.
It's baseball. You don't always get what you want, and you don't always want what you get. --Ed Coffin
Heard he choked on some 'coon steak at Del Friscos.
"...Ron Washington is the Les Miles of MLB." - AJM
This offseason is starting to kinda suck a little again
Look, this is a bad time to buy cocaine anyway. With the market how it is, it is better to rent cocaine.
If by any chance the Rangers fail to sign Yu
We will be one very unhappy fanbase huh?
by RangersfaninROK on Jan 5, 2012 9:15 AM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
Understatement of the year so far
Look, this is a bad time to buy cocaine anyway. With the market how it is, it is better to rent cocaine.
by LSJ on Jan 5, 2012 9:17 AM CST up reply actions
eh
I’m pretty sure that the reason Fielder hasn’t signed is that everyone thinks that if the Rangers don’t get Yu, they’ll get Prince. So basically Prince is hoping the Rangers don’t sign him, and everyone else in baseball is hoping that they do.
Go Rice Owls!
Would be a Matt Harrison fan, but I only like superstars
I bet at this point Prince would rather come here
And that, as you say, is holding up the situation
Everyone wants to get paid, but after the last couple of years in Milwaukee, I’m sure he’s not anxious to go to Seattle and have basically no chance to win for the foreseeable future
And I would not be surprised if Washington’s rep along with the state of this organization makes this his most desirable destination
I'm sure he would.
He’d start every year on the AL MVP watch list, be hitting in a friendly home park, and if he stuck around long enough, he’d have an outside shot at the HOF.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 5, 2012 11:17 AM CST up reply actions
Its a shame a deal couldn't be worked out with Napoli now
I hope he isn’t expecting crazy money though because I think the Rangers would feel a lot more comfortable paying him big bucks after another great year here rather than after what is likely a career year.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
I think they don't want to make him the Scott Feldman of catchers
But I’m still expecting good things from the Napster next season.
"And the Yankees slap everyone around with their money penis, but where has it gotten them?"- Jorge C
by WildcatPhoenix on Jan 5, 2012 9:08 AM CST up reply actions
I think Napoli is looking at getting a FA type contract
a year before FA. No point in not waiting a year before signing him to that contract. Probably similar to CJ, except the team likely has more of a desire to keep the player with the lack of replacement options.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
Im really curious what kind of terms each side is offering
Based on the Rangers stated reluctance on going real long term on guys I have to believe they are probably only offering a 3 year deal and Napoli is seeking at least 4.
I cant believe they are more than a mil or 2 apart on AAV given hes so close to FA and we know pretty much what his arb salary will be
Years would be my guess too
He’s a catcher in his early 30s. The Rangers might be offering 3 with a 4th year option/buyout and he could be looking for at least 4 guaranteed.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
If it were just about 3 vs 4 years
I don’t think it would have broken off so abruptly.
My guess is Napoli just didn’t want an extension. Or he was asking for basically a VMart contract straight up, no arb year discount or anything. Which really amounts to not wanting an extension.
Go Rice Owls!
Would be a Matt Harrison fan, but I only like superstars
This
The fact that they’ve stopped talking about, of course with the caveat that it’s not all smokescreen, leads me to be believe that the Napoli camp was looking for something of an outlier contract.
If it was just a year or just a few million dollars, I don’t think we’d be hearing anything.
The Napoli camp is probably holding up this year and saying that he should get a contract as a premiere offensive player with valuable contributions at a critical defensive position.
The fact that his last year was in part so awesome but also only partially coming from the C spot seems like it’s creating a really wide set of possibilities
But I agree with what you said above regarding the options with him. This isn’t bad news in my eyes. He loves it here, and they can let this year play out and perhaps both sides have a closer set of options in mind after the season.
Does it?
You wouldn’t give him VMart’s deal right now?
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 5, 2012 11:14 AM CST up reply actions
I'm not sure i would
but nap falls in that weird very good but not epic great category that i worry about spending on
Go Rice Owls!
Would be a Matt Harrison fan, but I only like superstars
by JBImaknee on Jan 5, 2012 11:47 AM CST via Android app up reply actions
I would give him VMart's deal right now
because I think he’ll keep catching longer. He was so good in so many areas last year that even when eventual regression comes, he’s still going to be a good player.
I think the bigger disconnect here is that I don’t think the Rangers are the Rays. They can afford to keep some of their own guys or sign extensions with them that give them merely at 25-50% discount whereas the Rays need something like a 75% discount.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 5, 2012 12:04 PM CST up reply actions
If Feldman was a starter I dont think his contract for 2012 would be much of a problem
Its paying him 6 mil to be your long man/spot starter that hurts
Yeah, he's basically an expensive insurance policy right now
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
Only happens in the event of (knock on wood) injury.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
I understand if Naps wants to explore the FA market
Considering his age, this might as well be his first and last chance for a big payday. The conditions are perfect too. If he can put together another strong season this year, he will very likely get some serious money thrown at him in the open market. Kinda like CJ’s case.
by RangersfaninROK on Jan 5, 2012 9:19 AM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
I dont really think theres much chance of him getting much more money though
Sure if he puts up another 1000+ OPS season he would but in all likelihood hes going to regress down to closer to a 900 OPS if not upper 800’s. Not terrible by any means but not 2011 type numbers either.
I think his ceiling, even on the open market as a FA, is probably 13-14 mil per year whereas I have to believe the Rangers would be willing to go 11-12 mil right now for his FA years.
I think the thing with him is the length of the deal. He wants 3 FA years guaranteed most likely and the Rangers aren’t willing to do that. If he goes to FA I think he’ll likely only get a 4 year deal
I don't think he has to put up another 1.000 OPS season to get a sizable check
No logical person would expect Naps to duplicate his 2011 campaign. Still, even if he regresses down to lower .900s or upper .800s, that’s still damn impressive for a catcher. In that case, I think there will be plenty of suitors for him in that case so that he can manage to get a more lucrative deal than what I assume our FO would feel comfortable to offer to Naps. Elite offensive catchers with decent gloves is a rare commodity these days.
by RangersfaninROK on Jan 5, 2012 9:33 AM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
VMart got 4/50
And he had a long track record of being a good offensive player
I think if Napoli regresses down to upper 800’s/ lower 900’s OPS next year then thats about the max he would be looking at getting.
Good point
But I think Napoli is a better catcher than VMart. Which isn’t saying much. But still at least Naps can be expected to be a regular catcher, and a decent one at that if we take his 2011 season as an indicator if his catching prowess. That has to merit some value form him. VMart got most of his playing time as a DH.
by RangersfaninROK on Jan 5, 2012 9:45 AM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
if (x) of(o)
god I hate typing on a smart phone.
by RangersfaninROK on Jan 5, 2012 9:46 AM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
Thats only because Detroit had Avila
VMart got paid based on his performance as a catcher
I dont think DH’s would have gotten that type of deal.
Martinez also had a much better injury history than Napoli has had
VMart was terrible behind the plate.
They wore Avila down catching him so much which is why they signed Laird.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Jan 5, 2012 9:51 AM CST up reply actions
Ok
That doesn’t address the issue though. VMart got paid his contract due to his performance as a catcher. 850-870 OPS DH’s dont get 4/50 type deals. Big Papi got a 4/52 deal after 2 straight 1000+ OPS seasons and 4 straight 950+ OPS season. VMart has never OPSed 950.
Napoli will get paid based on his perfomance as a catcher and the most recent catcher to get paid was VMart
Yes but how much value do you think Detroit put in VMarts catching skills
VMart has been a well below average catcher for quite a while now. If Naps can show this year that he indeed can contribute as a catcher the way he did last year, I think he would be worth quite a lot more than VMart in terms of catching ability.
Having said that, I do relent that it is by no means given that Naps will find a team that will offer him more than what VMart got from Detroit. But I’m not sure that our FO is willing to give Naps a VMart-like contract base on his performance last year. Crazy deals happen all the time in the open market all the time, and I wouldn’t blame Naps if he decides to take his chance.
by RangersfaninROK on Jan 5, 2012 10:07 AM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
If Detroit didn't value his catching skills they wouldn't have paid him what they paid him
You can get 850 OPS DH’s for far less than 4/50 contracts.
They obviously didn't value his catching skills much
since they never caught him. Leyland even said they wore Avila down because they didn’t have another catcher.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Jan 5, 2012 10:12 AM CST up reply actions
If those are the only two options in your opinion,
than I guess so.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Jan 5, 2012 10:16 AM CST up reply actions
They felt like he was the best bat on the market last year.
They figured he could play 1B, catch, and DH. They felt like they needed an established bat to hit behind Miggy. You want me to keep going?
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Jan 5, 2012 10:18 AM CST up reply actions
Then they vastly overpaid
A primary DH who puts up those type numbers can be had for much less than what they gave him.
That's your opinion.
But in last year’s market, you have no idea how much less they could have paid to get VMart if he was in fact their prime target.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Jan 5, 2012 10:21 AM CST up reply actions
My point is he got that contract due to what he did as a catcher
It doesn’t matter how the Tigers saw him or what role they were going to play him. He got paid based on his performance the previous 6 years as a catcher.
Otherwise yes the Tigers vastly overpaid and are fucking idiots if they gave a DH who is a 850 OPS guy a 4/50 contract
My point is you are saying with absolute
certainty that he got paid for being a catcher. If that was the case, the Tigers sure soured on his catching quickly since Avila started opening day behind the plate. The Tigers paid him what it took to get him there last year. I don’t think they were too worried about where he would play.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Jan 5, 2012 11:13 AM CST up reply actions
I think someone else was probably willing to pay him to be their catcher
And thus the high price and the Tigers overpaid to get him to come there even if they didn’t intend on him catching.
You mean, like Adam Dunn?
Northern Virginia's all time world champion Rangers fan of all time and all of Northern Virginia, and the rest of Virginia too. Mayor of Greatestfanville, Virginia.
Adam J Morris, halfassedly pretending to be interested in my thoughts, goals, and overall self esteem since late 2005.
by Brian Thomas on Jan 5, 2012 10:43 AM CST up reply actions
Well Dunn was much closer to 900
And at least at the time the White Sox said they were going to basically split Konerko and Dunn at 1B/DH.
I think Dunns contract was much more in line with hiw previous performance than VMart
I think they thought he could catch some.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 5, 2012 11:18 AM CST up reply actions
man typing on the smart phone makes me sound like an idiot
Screw you modern technology.
by RangersfaninROK on Jan 5, 2012 10:16 AM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
I think people aren't fully appreciating that Napoli was the best hitter in baseball not named Bautista last season
That gets a lot more than 4/50.
Victor Martinez’s career high wRC+ was 130 last season. Napoli already has a 146 and wRC+’d 178 last season.
That’s $18M per year material at C, and his agent knows that.
I think you're not appreciating how unlikely Napoli will ever approach that kind of offense ever again.
Also… where have you been?
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
hmm
I’m out of the library, back in Dallas, so I don’t have as much LSB time.
I think he’ll regress from last year, but he already has 2 seasons, now, with substantially better numbers than VMart has put up, and the defensive reports were actually positive behind the plate.
that is great if he will continue to be that good
but im not yet sold tgat he’s Johnny bench
Go Rice Owls!
Would be a Matt Harrison fan, but I only like superstars
by JBImaknee on Jan 5, 2012 11:49 AM CST via Android app up reply actions
One year does not earn him that kind of deal
Not with his injury history and lack of being a full time player until last season
VMart got 4/50 after several injury free 850 OPS seasons.
I dont think Napoli is going to get 50% more than him after 1 amazing season.
Sure, but say his BABIP regresses
and he finishes with “merely” a 140 wRC+
You don’t think a Joe Mauer-esque offensive presence at C won’t get a 3/60 – 4/75 type deal from someone next off-season?
It's not just the BABIP
Career HR/FB: 19.5%
2011 HR/FB: 25.4%
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 5, 2012 12:05 PM CST up reply actions
Mmm hmmmm
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 5, 2012 12:09 PM CST up reply actions
Personaly
I think Napoli and Hamilton are very comparable players in value, and I don’t think you’d be shocked if Hamilton got that contract, would you?
Both are like-aged, injury prone players. If Napoli puts back-to-back seasons together with 140+ wRC+, he’s looking superior offensively to Josh, and he plays a premium position.
I have a question from the Napoli thread about Hamilton
I don’t get the whole losing value thing for moving Hamilton to first base. What value are you losing if you move him to first base after say the 2012 season? Is it because we don’t have the strongest outfield or am I missing something?
it is a sabremetric argument
when compared to other LF, Hamilton is above avg with the bat and glove. At 1B, he is less valuable because his bat is closer to the avg 1B and defense at 1B is less important then in LF. Of course I will be duly corrected if wrong. :)
In Hamilton's case... I don't think that's it.
Hamilton is an above average LF defensively because of his arm and range and experience.
That has more value than making him a novice 1B where his arm and range do less.
His bat is good enough for either corner OF or 1B.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Even if he was a good defensive 1B,
there’s less opportunity for a 1B to save runs (in relation to other 1B) than there is for an OF.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 5, 2012 11:12 AM CST up reply actions
For one, Hamilton would not be a good defensive 1B having never played it (or anything in the IF)
And with his arm and speed, that’s going to waste there. Offensively, you wouldn’t lose much relative value if its Hamilton from LF to 1B. I just don’t get why you’d move Hamilton to 1st at all.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
That's a pretty bold statement
to just say flat out he won’t be a good defensive 1B period.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Jan 5, 2012 9:16 AM CST up reply actions
Why?
He’s been an OF for forever. His biggest strengths are his speed and his arm. I don’t see why you would expect him to have any idea what he’s doing at 1B without a lot of reps and playing time there.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
I think a lot of folks just assume anyone with a big-league resume can play 1B.
That’s why we heard so much talk of putting Murphy at 1B when the Chris Davis experiment failed.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
I don't assume anyone can play first.
But I do think judging on an individual basis, Hamilton could become at least an average defensive 1B.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Jan 5, 2012 10:13 AM CST up reply actions
Historically, many power hitters have moved from the outfield to 1B
Killebrew and Jack Clark are two that I can think of. Killebrew would have been considered a below average OF, and because he was right handed he was probably only considered an average 1B.
However, Jack Clark was probably a better than average right fielder because of his arm, but when he was obtained by the St. Louis Cardinals, they also had George Hendrick in right field. Clark seemed to be an average first baseman defensively.
Mainly, you moved important bats to a position that needed improvement in the lineup, and that might be considered the case for the Rangers if they had other solid outfielders. The only thing is that Hamilton is a better than average left fielder, and can help in Center if a substitute is needed.
I agree with all of this.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
bold, yes.
safe to say, yes.
how long has it been since he played even an inning at 1b? has he EVER played an inning at 1B?
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
Peter Gammons might have seen him do it one summer on the Cape...
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
Even if he never played on the Cape?
Because Young never played there.
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Jan 5, 2012 10:17 AM CST up reply actions
Heh
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 5, 2012 11:12 AM CST up reply actions
When I think about Yu
I touch myself?
"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11
Pressure? If there’s any pressure it’s the pressure pressurizing the panty cannon.
This is why I brought it up last night....
My concern is that they are looking at signing him for 5-6 years….if that’s the case, is he still going to be as productive in the OF? Would it be a viable option to move him to 1b or would they just look to move him to DH if they notice him breaking down?
"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Jan 5, 2012 9:27 AM CST up reply actions
I'd say move him to DH with some OF playing time mixed in
but I really can’t see the Rangers giving him 5 guaranteed years and certainly not 6.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
Question, then.....
Does Hamilton view that as a “fair contract”? I’m not sure. And do you expect a team to give him 5 or 6 years guaranteed? I do….that’s why I don’t know why the FO says they are not interested in Fielder. They have to know that if Hamilton reaches the open market he’s going to get more money than they are comfortable paying him.
"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Jan 5, 2012 9:43 AM CST up reply actions
I expect at least 1 team to give him 6 years guaranteed
and that’s usually all it takes, but I think most teams are wary enough about his past drug use and injury history that they won’t be in any serious talks to sign him. If he’s healthy all year and hits like its 2010 again, that could change a lot of things, but another 2011 and that kills his chances at getting more than 5 with most offers probably being something like 4/60 or 4/65.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
I think Parman has a fascinating view about it below....
Work like crazy to get Hamilton signed by the 18th and get both Hamilton and Darvish signed….if nothing works out by the 18th with Hamilton, make an offer to Fielder (assuming he’s still available).
It’s crazy enough that it might work….the 18th is less than 2 weeks away…I didn’t think Fielder would be out there this long so I can certainly see him being out there on the 18th.
"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Jan 5, 2012 9:56 AM CST up reply actions
I'm just not sure they do.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 5, 2012 11:13 AM CST up reply actions
Because there aren't as many elite offensive players among OFs in comparison to 1st basemen
And also the fact that the defensive value of an OF is higher than that of a 1st baseman. Throw in the fact that Josh actually plays decent OF defense.
by RangersfaninROK on Jan 5, 2012 9:23 AM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
For now..
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 5, 2012 11:09 AM CST up reply actions
It's about replacement value
How much better is Player X at 1b, than the next 1b the Rangers could plug in.
Because 1b are typically all the players that can hit very well, but not field as well, the replacement player is better, making Player X relatively less valuable.
I've been thinking about this for awhile, and I believe the "lack of interest" on Fielder is due to Hamilton.
If the FO signs Fielder before getting something done long term with Hamilton, Hamilton would see that as a sign he is gone. I don’t see the FO tipping its hand like that.
I see this drama building to 1/18/12. Once Darvish signs or maybe just before, the dam is going to break. I see a cascade of contracts being signed by the Rangers. Frankly, I am OK with the Rangers taking the risk on Hamilton because of what he can do. He would have been the hero of the first World Series Champion Texas Rangers if things played out a little different.
I understand why walking away from Hamilton is espoused and I agree in my head (not in my heart), but the offense would be gouged. In this scenario, my interest in Fielder skyrockets. Fielder would fit like a glove in that lineup. The Ninja is in a bit of a sticky spot here. I’m keen to see how it plays out.
I sports hate you CJ.
I don't know if Fielder will have a choice
if he’s still looking for 200 million.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
Who else is there really?
Certainly, nothing like the Rangers as an organization or as his best chance for multiple shots at the World Series.
I sports hate you CJ.
This is why he waits to see what the Rangers do. Pushing all things to 1/18 because Darvish probably isn't signing until then.
I believe the contract is done and they are just waiting until the 18th. I see the FO working its butt off right now to secure Hamilton prior to the 18th. If that doesn’t happen, I could see the Rangers offering Prince something tangible once Darvish is settled.
I sports hate you CJ.
Ugh it pisses me off just thinking the FO is going to choose Josh over Prince
My faith in the FO will take a serious hit if they do that
As always... it depends on the money.
If the Nationals sign Fielder for 8/$180 and the Rangers sign Josh for 5/$80…
I will lose zero faith in the Rangers front office. Fielder is a much better hitter than Josh, he’s younger and he’s been a durable guy.
But… he does play a more easily filled position and is heavy enough to be concerned about it.
I would like Josh’s chances of being worth $80M over 5 years than Fielder’s chances of being worth $180M over 8.
That said… I don’t think 5/$80 is enough to actually get Josh.
But the prices involved are very important in order to evaluate.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Yes
But im going off the assumption its going to take at a absolutel minimum 5/90 to sign Josh and more likely 5/100 given his comments about “fair offer”
It's amazing how you can take something vague like "fair offer" and turn it into 5/100
How did you get from point A to point B?
Werth got 18 mil AAV
Crawford got 20+ mil AAV
Both got 7 years and I think Josh views a fair offer as somewhere in between those two AAV wise. Now years wise I dont know if he views a 5 year deal as fair. Hell I would go more than 3 years guaranteed on him but thats just me
Both of those guys had a lot less baggage attached to them
and both have turned out horribly so far for their teams.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
I don't think Josh or his agent will care.
And even if 29 other teams agree… it only takes one team to pay the stupid contract.
And someone usually does.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Yeah, the "It only takes 1" can always change things in a huge way
but the number of teams with that money to spend aren’t too high right now and they would have to be somewhat desperate to ignore the huge warning signs. I think if Josh is looking for 5/90 or 5/100, he’s going to be disappointed when there is almost no interest.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
Both were also younger.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
I don't think so.
I think Werth and Josh would be exactly the same age at FA.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Well blow me down. I should have looked before I leapt on that one.
Werth’s contract … what?
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
Yeah. Exactly.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
'Zactly.
And if Werth can get 7 years and $126M…
Even if Josh concedes he’s got more baggage… he’s going to want $100M.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Yep.
Though I’m still not sure he gets it. At least not all guaranteed.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 5, 2012 11:09 AM CST up reply actions
Werth wasn't
Werth and Josh will be seperated by literally 1 day when Josh hits FA
Werth 5/20/79
Josh 5/21/81
Josh hit FA 2 years after Werth did
Did Burnett or Lackeys contracts prevent CJ from getting a 100 million dollar offer this past winter?
Hell he got close to their contract even by taking less money to go to LA
No, but CJ was the top starter on the market with 2 full seasons as a top starter
Not a guy who misses 30-40 games regularly. If he’s putting up another MVP season this year, that can change things but I think a repeat of last year is more likely
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
This is starting to get to Josey levels
At least change the wording up some.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
by Gdawg on Jan 5, 2012 10:02 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
He's obviously not in a hurry
To ink a deal with Seattle, the O’s or another team that gives him a significantly lower chance of being the playoffs/spotlight
We have absolutely no idea how much he cares about the spotlight/playoffs
It could easily be that no team has yet met his asking price and if Seattle or Oakland came to him today and offered the 8-10/180-200 his agent is asking he would sign
We also don't know for sure if he likes Carrot Cake
But I’m pretty sure it’s high on his list
The guy has been in the spotlight for a lot of his life, and just about every player who ever put on cleats would rather play for a championship than just a check.
I don’t think I’m that far out on a limb to say he’s not jumping at the chance to go to a team that won’t contend
No I dont think you are very far out on a limb
But for all we know those teams could only be offering 4-5 year deals right now and his holding out has more to do with no team meeting his demand thus far rather than waiting to sign with a contender
Yeah, if he's only getting 5-6 year offers from contenders,
I think he’d rather sign an 8-10 year deal with an opt out with a non-contender.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 5, 2012 11:10 AM CST up reply actions
Then thats a terrible way to run things
Players have to know that at the end of the day its a business and Hamilton has to know that. Hes made comments that all hes looking for is a “fair offer” and frankly I dont want the Rangers coming anywhere close to a fair offer for him.
You sign Prince because he makes your club better for 2012 and he makes it better for 2013 and beyond if in fact Josh does leave.
If the Rangers aren’t interested in Prince because of Josh then get ready for a Rusty Greer like contract for Josh where he plays maybe 2 years out of a 5 year deal
"You sign Prince because he makes your club better for 2012 and he makes it better for 2013 and beyond"
Exactly…same mentality that was used in signing Beltre….
"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Jan 5, 2012 9:30 AM CST up reply actions
Or you don't sign either becuase you don't expect they'll play up to the value of that contract.
I hate the idea of signing or not signing people based on a reaction to another player’s contract situation.
"...out of the shadows of unprecedented success, the sun shines down upon this team waiting to thrill anew." - ghostofErikThompson
I want Fielder
not because of another contract but because he is the only real impact bat on the market this season and next.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
1/18/12
Prince already has a handshake deal with the Rangers. They are just waiting to announce the signing on the same day as Yu.
I like the way you think....
"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Jan 5, 2012 11:55 AM CST up reply actions
I still feel like at the right price...
Carlos Pena would be an upgrade over Moreland.
"The Rangers system just happens to be stupid with depth." - Jason Parks, 7/14/11
2011-07-25 17:44:05 - benjihana: Ahh my backdoor!!!
"It appears I made a mistake. I did not know what pegged meant" - Schultzy, 11/13/11
Doesn't Pena struggle against lefties also?
"Calmer than you are dude"
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Jan 5, 2012 10:32 AM CST up reply actions
Yeah, he's really someone who would be better off in a platoon
and if need be, I assume you could sit him for Young or Napoli (with Yorvit getting those days behind the plate).
That being said, as bad as he was against lefties, he still was a 119 WRC+ hitter last year, and I think his power would play well, as would his patience.
The strikeouts would probably be frustrating, but so was Moreland last year.
"The Rangers system just happens to be stupid with depth." - Jason Parks, 7/14/11
2011-07-25 17:44:05 - benjihana: Ahh my backdoor!!!
"It appears I made a mistake. I did not know what pegged meant" - Schultzy, 11/13/11
FUCK NO
"God dammit TAG I swear to God if you keep this "It was a close play" shit up all night I will send you cookies made from my own shit" -River Fenix 8/26/2011
"this is a big reason I decided not to convert to Islam now if it was 72 skanks? Different story, my friend" Bob Loblaw 9/2/2011
by I am Neftali Feliz on Jan 5, 2012 10:41 AM CST up reply actions
He's not Prince...
but on a 1/3 deal or something like that, I genuinely think he’d put up a higher WRC+ than Moreland while playing better defense.
"The Rangers system just happens to be stupid with depth." - Jason Parks, 7/14/11
2011-07-25 17:44:05 - benjihana: Ahh my backdoor!!!
"It appears I made a mistake. I did not know what pegged meant" - Schultzy, 11/13/11
carlos pena sucks
239 .352 .486 .838
"God dammit TAG I swear to God if you keep this "It was a close play" shit up all night I will send you cookies made from my own shit" -River Fenix 8/26/2011
"this is a big reason I decided not to convert to Islam now if it was 72 skanks? Different story, my friend" Bob Loblaw 9/2/2011
by I am Neftali Feliz on Jan 5, 2012 10:48 AM CST up reply actions
x
2010 .196 .325 .407 .732
2011 .225 .357 .462 .819
"God dammit TAG I swear to God if you keep this "It was a close play" shit up all night I will send you cookies made from my own shit" -River Fenix 8/26/2011
"this is a big reason I decided not to convert to Islam now if it was 72 skanks? Different story, my friend" Bob Loblaw 9/2/2011
by I am Neftali Feliz on Jan 5, 2012 10:49 AM CST up reply actions
Moreland for 2011 was .734 and he's coming off major wrist surgery
It’s not like you’re replacing Josh Hamilton here.
"The Rangers system just happens to be stupid with depth." - Jason Parks, 7/14/11
2011-07-25 17:44:05 - benjihana: Ahh my backdoor!!!
"It appears I made a mistake. I did not know what pegged meant" - Schultzy, 11/13/11
Hmm. Is the major modifier appropriate?
Is there such a thing as minor wrist surgery?
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Yeah.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
I dunno...
Probably a higher-ceiling/lower-floor proposition.
My mind just says throw ball throw hard and strike. - Marteen
by Keynes on Jan 5, 2012 10:47 AM CST via Android app up reply actions
Nah, not for the likely cost.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 5, 2012 11:06 AM CST up reply actions
My comment earlier got me thinking...
…does Fielder have a chance at the HOF?
He’s had 3 5+ WAR seasons through his Age 27 year. That’s pretty good for a power hitter. Only one of those was a 6+ WAR season.
A big question is longevity, of course. But let’s assume he’s a capable player through age 35, so 8 more years. The (overly) general rule of thumb is that you need to cross 60 WAR to be a HOFer. He’s at 23.4 right now. So he’d need 36.6 WAR to cross the threshold, or ~4.5 WAR per year. That’s roughly All Star level.
Now, players don’t decline linearly, and he’s already a rather variable player, so this would probably look something more like elite for the first third of the contract [6+ WAR/year], all star for the middle third, and above average for the last third [2.5-3.5 WAR].
Do you think he can perform that well?
To the original point, realize that he has the sort of player profile that the HOF loves, so he may be able to get in even if he doesn’t hit 60 WAR just by hanging around and hitting dongs for a few years after his time as a full time 1B ends. Hmmmm….
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
I think he'll have to play through age 38-39, at the very least, and be an "accumulator" for the last 3 or 4 years of his career.
Basically, the Eddie Murray path.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
This gets back to what I've been saying
it only makes sense to offer Prince 5+ years if you think he’s going to get better [or more consistent]. Which isn’t an unreasonable stance to take, given his age.
I don’t think his age is as big a benefit as it would be for a more fit player.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 5, 2012 11:39 AM CST up reply actions
Assuming Prince's glove has no chance of getting better, I think that's probably right.
I still want to sign him though.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
He only needs 500...
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
Only?
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
Yep
Already has 230 HRs in his career. 270 more to get to 500. 27 a year for 10 years.Since he hasn’t hit less than 28 in a full season yet in his career I dont think that would be too tough
I think you may be underestimating the difficulty of averaging that many HRs per year, over a 10 year period, in the post-steroid era.
Dale Murphy’s best 10-year stretch was 30.8, and he did that from age 22-31. I use Murphy as an example because he’s probably the last slugger to have accumulated many HRs before the steroid era began.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
The best guy for your argument might be Mike Schmidt, who hit 364 HRs from 1977 (age 27 season) to 1986 (age 36 season)
Of course, Mike Schmidt is one of the top 50 players of all time.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
I think he could very easily hit 200 HRs in the next 5 years if he played here
So 70 more in the final 5 years of a deal (ages 33-37) shouldn’t be that hard to accomplish IMO
That's a pretty high average for 10 years.
I think he can do it for 5 or 6.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 5, 2012 11:42 AM CST up reply actions
outside shot
1b is pretty high threshold. and 500 hrs isn’t a sure thing anymore he’ll have to have something other than power. mvps world series glory something
Go Rice Owls!
Would be a Matt Harrison fan, but I only like superstars
by JBImaknee on Jan 5, 2012 11:54 AM CST via Android app up reply actions
Let's say 3 AL West titles, 1 ALCS MVP, 1 AL MVP
and 530 HR. Retires at 37.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 5, 2012 12:00 PM CST up reply actions
I can't imagine him going to the HOF anymore than I can see Tex getting there
He’s pretty much going to have keep slugging like he has through his mid 30s and I just don’t think that would happen.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
Well,
he has a chance to slug better in his late 20s and early 30s.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 5, 2012 12:01 PM CST up reply actions
prince is more likeable than Tex and has more star wow cache
Go Rice Owls!
Would be a Matt Harrison fan, but I only like superstars
by JBImaknee on Jan 5, 2012 1:36 PM CST via Android app up reply actions
Well if Tex has a 1% chance at the HOF
I could agree that Prince has maybe a 3% or 4% chance.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
Blue Jays
Are the Blue Jays in on Prince?
him and Lawrie on the corners would be just disgusting. they have a good core of young pitchers fronted by a pretty good ace in Romero
lots of young talented outfielders who can hit, good young catcher in Arencibia, serviceable SS in Romero, they’re good up the middle – and didn’t they just have a badass draft with a bunch of first round picks?
With the Red Sox and Yankees getting older and weaker, this is probably a good time to saddle up with the Blue Jays, no?
Arencibia is a good young catcher?
Romero’s a nice #3, but Drabek is wildly overrated and Morrow can’t throw strikes consistently enough to be a TORP. Toronto is going nowhere.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
They've got a pretty strong farm, though..
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
by GhettoBear04 on Jan 5, 2012 11:39 AM CST up reply actions
Who cares?
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
Romero
146 ERA+ pitching in the AL East. He is not a #3.
ERA+
Not worth a damn.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
Nope.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
i hate when he pitches against us
count me in the ’Let’s Trade For Romero’ camp :)~
by oc on Jan 5, 2012 1:55 PM CST up reply actions
There were a few rumors floating around a couple of days ago that Tor was
offering Drabek in a trade deal for Garza…..
"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Jan 5, 2012 11:59 AM CST up reply actions
That's what JD wants
When you stop believing his public statements, that’s when he starts telling the truth publicly and everyone just assumes that its false. NINJA’D
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
That's usually the effect of lying pathologically
you can try it in real life too, it’s amusing
lol, I've done it before
It is really amusing.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
What has JD ever just outright lied about to the media though?
Doesn’t he typically just underplay everything or stay quiet? Not really the same as straight up denying interest.
Maybe my memory fails me.
You know what? You're exactly right....and even in his "denial" he never states that
they are absolutely out on Fielder…Sullivan said JD “made it clear” they were not interested in Fielder but I haven’t seen a quote to that effect….
“There is not a team in baseball that wouldn’t love to have a guy like [Fielder],” Daniels said. “But Mitch’s wrist is coming along well and we believe in him. That’s where we are. Barring something drastic, I expect Mitch to be our first baseman.”
"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Jan 5, 2012 3:36 PM CST up reply actions
If thats all JD said and TR just assumed the rest, then yeah I wouldn't give up hope on Fiedler
I didnt actually read any of the articles heh.
just read your thread about MitchMo..he played pretty well 2010 when he came up
and prob was best hitter in the WS..then was playing well first half of 2011..then struggled and we find out he had wrist prob and played thru it..i think we ought to wait and let the guy play a full season before we give up on him
hey..since the ninja says the prince is still a frog for us..
might as well make the most from Mitch
Josh Hamilton's new babysitter
According to Evan Grant, Hamilton’s Father-In-Law is now on the payroll as a special assistant and Josh’s accountability partner. Was that job posted on the Rangers website? I would have loved that.
"A lot of people may not know this, but I happen to be quite famous." - Sam "MayDay" Malone
"Accountability partner"
As thrilling as it would be to work in MLB, and, more especially, the Rangers, I think I might set the record for fastest termination ever with that job.
Josh: Uh, maybe we should head back to the hotel. It’s nearly 1.
Me: Come on, pussy, one more drink. We got nuthin but Negra Modelos back in the room, and besides, I have this chick half-convinced I’m Rusty Greer.
Josh: It’s a 1 o’clock start tomorrow.
Me: Like you ever hit for shit in day games.
Josh: It’s the sun. I have a hard time tracking the ball.
Me: “It’s the sun. I have a hard time tracking the ball.” Nyuck nyuck. Ok Hammy.
Josh: Hey fuck you, man.
Me: What did I say?
Josh: Let’s get the check.
Me: Ok, ok, you’re right.
Josh: cool.
Me: You don’t mind driving back, do you?
Josh: (sigh) Nah man.
Me: I think you mean, “Nah Rusty,” (ruffles Hammy on his frizz head in super-hilarious fashion).
Northern Virginia's all time world champion Rangers fan of all time and all of Northern Virginia, and the rest of Virginia too. Mayor of Greatestfanville, Virginia.
Adam J Morris, halfassedly pretending to be interested in my thoughts, goals, and overall self esteem since late 2005.
by Brian Thomas on Jan 5, 2012 5:26 PM CST up reply actions 6 recs
wore my cargo pants yesterday, just for you.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
this deserve 10000000 reccomendations.
"God dammit TAG I swear to God if you keep this "It was a close play" shit up all night I will send you cookies made from my own shit" -River Fenix 8/26/2011
"this is a big reason I decided not to convert to Islam now if it was 72 skanks? Different story, my friend" Bob Loblaw 9/2/2011
by I am Neftali Feliz on Jan 5, 2012 7:12 PM CST up reply actions
Hah
you’d be a good partner for someone the org wants to sandbag. “Hey, Brian, go get this guy good and wasted and get some incriminating pictures while you’re at it. We’re setting up a drug test for him in a couple days.”
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
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