2012 Community Projections Results: Josh Hamilton

Matthew Emmons-US PRESSWIRE - Presswire

Reviewing the best and worst of the pre-season community projections.

Josh Hamilton is weird. His 2012 season is also weird. At a distance, looked at as a whole, his season was a good, productive year with a .931 OPS and his first full season since 2008, but Rangers fans will remember it as a roller coaster ride.

April and May were mind boggling good, Josh was the AL Player of Month for both months and looked well on his way to a second MVP award with an OPS of 1.182 and 1.187 respectively. As hot as he started, he cooled off with equal vigor as he struggled in June and July to the tune of .754 and .607 OPS. The end of the year saw Josh look more like Josh with .943 and .873 OPS for the final two months... but the last two weeks he was boom or bust striking out 18 times in his final 44 PA but with a .458 BABIP when he actually put it in play.

As one of the top offensive talents in baseball expectations were strong in the LSB community, especially in a contract year. Josh's .931 OPS still exceeded the .912 average projected and with almost 100 more PA than expected. Given the total production, it's hard to call his season a disappointment, but to Rangers fans it still feels that way.

Congratulations to ok.fester for having the lowest score* with his projection. Here is a spreadsheet with how everyone did.

*Score is the average number of standard deviations away from the actual 2012 value

Results PA AVG OBP SLG SCORE
2012 Season 636 .285 .354 .577
LSB Average 547.5 .307 .358 .554 0.90
ZiPS 558 .289 .342 .497 1.11
Marcel 526 .301 .352 .519 1.15
2011 Season 538 .298 .346 .536 1.00
Top Five Projections
1. ok.fester 630 .293 .354 .571 0.19
2. kchorton 580 .286 .346 .589 0.43
3. sprite 640 .298 .372 .585 0.46
4. chrisR 585 .298 .360 .575 0.49
5. Maximilian 580 .296 .345 .578 0.50
Bottom Five Projections
167. rckclmbr 575 .340 .420 .515 2.24
168. WhipSmart 403 .297 .320 .440 2.55
169. octoberty 600 .382 .434 .600 2.61
170. scoop16 652 .353 464 .705 3.21
171. Brooks 330 .220 .254 .400 4.65
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