2012 Community Projections Results: Mike Napoli

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Reviewing the best and worst of the pre-season community projections.

In 2010 Josh Hamilton had the greatest offensive season in Rangers history by wRC+ at 176 and a 1.044 OPS. In 2011 the community projections for Josh Hamilton expected him to build off that once in a lifetime year expecting a .955 OPS. Instead Josh put up an .882 OPS, much more in line with his career numbers.

In 2011 Mike Napoli had the NEW greatest offensive season in Rangers history by wRC+ at 177 (400 PA min) and a 1.046 OPS. In 2012 the community projections for Mike Napoli were a bit more tempered, but still expecting a very high .915 OPS. Instead Mike put up an .812 OPS, much more in line with his career numbers.

Regression to the mean, a cruel and heartless mistress. By wRC+, Mike Napoli's 2012 season scored at 114. In his previous 6 years of MLB he had three seasons about the same or worse (109, 112, 114) and three seasons better (119, 146, 177). 2012 is pretty much who Mike Napoli is, an above average offensive performer with power and walks who strikes out too much. His 2008 and 2011 seasons show that in a small sample of 300-400 PA he can get hot and put up amazing numbers.

Congratulations to LiamP for having the lowest score* with his projection. Here is a spreadsheet with how everyone did.

*Score is the average number of standard deviations away from the actual 2012 value

Results PA AVG OBP SLG SCORE
2012 Season 417 .227 .343 .469
LSB Average 509.1 .285 .369 .546 2.66
ZiPS 445 .272 .361 .538 1.84
Marcel 467 .269 .347 .499 1.39
2011 Season 432 .320 .414 .631 4.21
Top Five Projections
1. LiamP 450 .250 .345 .500 0.91
2. Adam J. Morris 445 .275 .353 .477 1.27
3. Brother_jd 469 .263 .348 .501 1.32
4. ghostofErikThompson 446 .276 .354 .478 1.32
5. kevzta 440 .270 .340 .520 1.40
Bottom Five Projections
158. grn_lantern 555 .295 .390 .620 4.04
159. kinsler61 514 .312 .404 .610 4.23
160. MikeEl 550 .317 .420 .625 4.90
161. nickbahh 600 .315 401 .630 4.92
162. jonas m. 498 .331 .418 .640 4.94
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