2012 Community Projections Results: Elvis Andrus

Jim Cowsert-US PRESSWIRE - Presswire

Reviewing the best and worst of the pre-season community projections.

In last year's community projections, LSB predicted 666.6 PA with a .277 / .347 / .360 slash line for Elvis. His actual year was 665 / .279 / .347 / .361. Less than 2 PA, .002 AVG and .001 SLG from getting it exactly. This year wasn't quite as accurate, but it was still very close, only .014 off his actual .727 OPS. The score of 0.58 from the LSB Average is the closest on any player for LSB hive mind.

Many people (myself included) projected Elvis to make "the leap" this year and like in 2010, he started off very strong. At one point in June looked like he might hit .300+, walk over 10% and have 40+ doubles. Unfortunately his numbers faded in the second half with a slash line of .279 / .326 / .362 for a .688 OPS. From first half to second half, his walk rate went from 9.9% to 5.8%, his ISO from .100 to .083 and he had only 11 doubles compared to the 20 he hit in the first half.

Ultimately, it was still a very good year from a SS who turned 24 in August, great defense and base running with just below average offense makes Elvis one of the top SS in the league, his 4.2 WAR was fifth in all of baseball and his 8.6 WAR over 2011-12 is 3rd behind Jose Reyes (10.6) and Jimmy Rollins (8.8).

Congratulations to horns120 for having the lowest score* with his projection. Here is a spreadsheet with how everyone did.

*Score is the average number of standard deviations away from the actual 2012 value

Results PA AVG OBP SLG SCORE
2012 Season 711 .286 .349 .378
LSB Average 665.5 .287 .356 .385 0.58
ZiPS 700 .275 .348 .350 0.71
Marcel 600 .277 .345 .360 1.25
2011 Season 665 .279 .347 .361 0.72
Top Five Projections
1. Horns120 682 .287 .349 .374 0.39
2. MikeEl 695 .285 .355 .379 0.40
3. Oracle Galvez 700 .285 .350 .365 0.40
4. philclark 675 .285 .350 .380 0.41
5. Schultzy 670 .287 .350 .378 0.42
Bottom Five Projections
149. Maximilian 647 .314 .360 .418 1.83
150. Conjunction 660 .309 .380 .420 2.10
151. Akalhar 665 .300 .385 .435 2.15
152. CrisLander 675 .311 .395 .415 2.31
153. beaudog 250 .282 .356 .385 3.45
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