The Texas Rangers Over/Under Predictions Contest Results

Matthew Emmons-US PRESSWIRE - Presswire

Back in April, Adam stole proposed an over/under contest with 44 questions of fun. After slaving over spreadsheets and html tables, the results are in (and formatted).

There was a four way tie for the over/under contest, each getting 29 of the 44 questions correct.

The winners of the contest are:

  • Slaw
  • Feliz es bueno
  • pblack
  • Schultzy

Each winner will receive a 2013 edition of the Baseball Prospectus book from Adam.

The LSB collective got 23 questions right and the lowest scores were shared by mcbheath and so close and yet...profar with 15 correct answers.

The questions LSB were most wrong on:

  • Question 11: Mark Lowe getting more games finished than Mike Adams
  • Question 6: Michael Young's hitting enough doubles to surpass twice the combination of light hitting CF
  • Question 2: Derek Holland winning more games than Matt Harrison
  • Question 9: Elvis Andrus stealing a lot less bases than Josh Hamilton hit home runs
  • Question 42: Elvis Andrus putting up a higher UZR than he would ground into double plays

Here's the spreadsheet of how everyone did and below are the details on all 44 questions.

Question 1 Guesses Values
Koji Uehara's major league innings pitched as a Ranger 108 36.0
Robbie Ross's major league innings pitched as a Ranger 103 65.0
Question 2 Guesses Values
Derek Holland's win total as a Ranger 165 12
Matt Harrison's win total as a Ranger 46 18
Question 3 Guesses Values
Every other pitcher's combined save total as a Ranger 41 6
Joe Nathan's save total as a Ranger 170 37
Question 4 Guesses Values
Craig Gentry's stolen bases 96 13
Elvis Andrus's sacrifice bunts 115 17
Question 5 Guesses Values
Josh Hamilton's home runs 76 43
Nelson Cruz's home runs 135 24
Question 6 Guesses Values
(Craig Gentry's XBHs + Julio Borbon's XBHs + Leonys Martin's XBHs) X 2 42 46
Michael Young's doubles 169 27
Question 7 Guesses Values
David Murphy's stolen bases 92 10
Elvis Andrus's caught stealings 119 10
Question 8 Guesses Values
Ian Kinsler's caught stealings 141 9
Michael Young's stolen bases 70 2
Question 9 Guesses Values
Elvis Andrus's stolen bases 165 21
Josh Hamilton's home runs 46 43
Question 10 Guesses Values
Alexi Ogando's innings pitched 73 66.0
Scott Feldman's innings pitched 138 123.2
Question 11 Guesses Values
Mark Lowe's games finished 28 12
Mike Adams' games finished 183 7
Question 12 Guesses Values
Martin Perez's major league innings pitched (as a Ranger) 95 38.0
Neil Ramirez's major league innings pitched (as a Ranger) 116 0.0
Question 13 Guesses Values
Josh Hamilton's batting average 63 .285
Michael Young's batting average 148 .277
Question 14 Guesses Values
Michael Young's batting average 96 .277
Yorvit Torrealba's OBP 115 .302
Question 15 Guesses Values
Elvis Andrus's SLG - AVG 91 .092
Ian Kinsler's OBP - AVG 120 .070
Question 16 Guesses Values
Josh Hamilton's games played 95 148
Nelson Cruz's games played 116 159
Question 17 Guesses Values
Adrian Beltre's games played 199 156
Mitch Moreland's games played 12 114
Question 18 Guesses Values
Adrian Beltre's RBIs 72 102
Ian Kinsler's runs scored 139 105
Question 19 Guesses Values
Elvis Andrus's runs scored 147 85
Nelson Cruz's RBIs 64 90
Question 20 Guesses Values
Elvis Andrus's sacrifices 176 17
Josh Hamilton's intentional walks 35 13
Question 21 Guesses Values
(Mitch Moreland's SLG) X 2 109 .936
Josh Hamilton's OPS 102 .930
Question 22 Guesses Values
Adrian Beltre's UZR/150 136 15.1
Elvis Andrus's UZR/150 75 9.1
Question 23 Guesses Values
(Total number of doubles for the team leader in doubles) - 7 135 38
Total number of home runs for the team leader in home runs 76 43
Question 24 Guesses Values
Adrian Beltre's errors 21 8
Adrian Beltre's GIDPs 190 8
Question 25 Guesses Values
David Murphy's stolen bases 106 10
Total number of starting pitchers used 105 11
Question 26 Guesses Values
Elvis Andrus's XBHs - Elvis Andrus's caught stealing 140 33
Total number of pitchers used 71 21
Question 27 Guesses Values
Elvis Andrus's XBHs 106 43
Total number of players used 105 39
Question 28 Guesses Values
Josh Hamilton's HRs - Josh Hamilton's doubles 113 -12
Mitch Moreland's HRs - Mitch Moreland's doubles 98 -3
Question 29 Guesses Values
Josh Hamilton's assists 44 5
Nelson Cruz's assists 167 9
Question 30 Guesses Values
Neftali Feliz's innings pitched + 20 12 62.2
Yu Darvish's innings pitched 199 191.1
Question 31 Guesses Values
Neftali Feliz's innings pitched + Alexi Ogando's innings pitched 71 108.2
Yu Darvish's innings pitched + Joe Nathan's innings pitched 140 255.2
Question 32 Guesses Values
Scott Feldman's wins + Mike Adams' wins + Joe Nathan's wins + Alexi Ogando's wins + Koji Uehara's wins 124 16
Yu Darvish's wins 87 16
Question 33 Guesses Values
Colby Lewis's HR/9 98 1.370
Elvis Andrus's OPS X 2 113 1.454
Question 34 Guesses Values
Derek Holland's WHIP 92 1.22
Yu Darvish's ERA+/100 119 1.16
Question 35 Guesses Values
Road wins 135 43
Yu Darvish's wins + Derek Holland's wins + Colby Lewis's wins 76 34
Question 36 Guesses Values
Team OPS v. LHP 76 .793
Team OPS v. RHP 135 .775
Question 37 Guesses Values
Elvis Andrus's OPS 114 .727
Josh Hamilton's daytime OPS 97 1.006
Question 38 Guesses Values
David Murphy's HRs 60 15
Michael Young GIDPs 151 26
Question 39 Guesses Values
(Adrian Beltre's OPS/2) X 1000 (for example, if Adrian Beltre has an 800 OPS, this would be 400) 104 461
David Murphy's PAs 107 521
Question 40 Guesses Values
Matt Harrison's ERA+ 148 138
Mitch Moreland's OPS+ 63 104
Question 41 Guesses Values
Derek Holland's ERA+ 78 97
Nelson Cruz's OPS+ 133 101
Question 42 Guesses Values
Elvis Andrus's GIDP 46 15
Elvis Andrus's UZR 165 8.8
Question 43 Guesses Values
Adrian Beltre's GIDPs 88 8
Adrian Beltre's UZR 123 10.7
Question 44 Guesses Values
The absolute value of Josh Hamilton's UZR 103 12.6
The absolute value of Nelson Cruz's UZR 108 3.3
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