2012 Community Projections Results: Colby Lewis

Rick Yeatts

Reviewing the best and worst of the pre-season community projections.

Colby Lewis is a weird pitcher. In the playoffs, he's 4-1 in 8 starts with a 2.34 ERA. Those October performance stick out in the minds of many Rangers fans as the identity of Colby Lewis, a warrior and the guy who should be at the top of a young rotation as the veteran leader you can count on. However leading up to the 2011 playoffs, Colby was a frequent victim of getting shelled, leading the AL in home runs allowed and causing the Rangers coaches to schedule him to start games on the road in the playoffs rather than risk having him pitch in the offense friendly Ballpark in Arlington. A lingering hip issue that was rarely discussed in the media raised even more doubts about what his 2012 campaign might deliver.

Colby gave a very strong performance in the first half of 2012, deciding that he just wasn't going to walk anyone anymore if that was alright with anyone. He made 16 starts and walked 1 or fewer in all but 3 of them. His home run problems were fairly controlled with the exception of one crazy game in Baltimore where he gave up 5 total home runs, including to the first three batters, but also struck out 12 guys in 7 innings. With strikeouts up a bit he allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 12 of his 16 starts.

Unfortunately, Colby's season was cut short by a damaged elbow tendon that required surgery and will have him out until the second half of 2013. But when he did pitch, he was better than most people projected.

Congratulations to I am Neftali Feliz for having the lowest score* with his projection. Here is a spreadsheet with how everyone did.

*Score is the average number of standard deviations away from the actual 2012 value

Results IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 SCORE
2012 Season 105.0 3.43 7.97 1.20 1.37
LSB Average 190.2 4.19 7.63 2.49 1.49 2.60
ZiPS 183.7 4.16 7.84 2.79 1.27 2.58
Marcel 180.0 4.05 7.80 2.75 1.25 2.46
2011 Season 200.3 4.40 7.59 2.52 1.57 2.98
Top Five Projections
1. I am Neftali Feliz 185.0 3.90 7.20 1.00 1.00 2.02
2. NinetyFeet 196.0 3.76 8.00 2.20 1.30 2.03
3. DFWTrojanTuba 172.0 4.21 8.20 2.10 1.50 2.13
4. AjaxJones 172.7 4.12 7.70 2.20 1.50 2.14
5. Poltergeist 200.0 4.01 7.80 1.70 1.60 2.14
Bottom Five Projections
108. GDawg 200.0 4.30 7.20 3.30 1.50 3.44
109. ryjadubya 200.0 4.45 6.80 3.00 1.50 3.52
110. TheGritMaster 171.0 4.74 5.40 2.30 1.80 3.70
111. LiamP 175.0 4.80 7.00 3.00 1.90 3.71
112. TheHuntforRedOctober 176.0 4.73 6.90 2.40 2.40 3.74
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Lone Star Ball

You must be a member of Lone Star Ball to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Lone Star Ball. You should read them.

Join Lone Star Ball

You must be a member of Lone Star Ball to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Lone Star Ball. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker