2012 Community Projections Results: Derek Holland

Jake Roth-US PRESSWIRE

Reviewing the best and worst of the pre-season community projections.

Derek Holland finished the 2011 regular season in strong fashion, going 11-4 with a 2.77 ERA and 97.1 IP over his final 15 starts. His 2011 post season wasn't as strong, but it included a gem in the World Series against the Cardinals where Derek threw 8.1 shut out innings with only 2 hits and 2 walks allowed. He showed up to spring training in the best shape of his life after working out all winter, signed a relatively inexpensive long term extension and seemed poised to make "the leap" as a solid #2 pitcher.

Nope.

Instead Derek Holland turned into 2011 Colby Lewis, but with an even higher HR/9 rate and without any post season success. Derek's velocity fell from his 2011 highs and his propensity to miss over the middle of the plate saw balls crushed with regularity. A mid-season illness caused him to lose weight and led to eventual shoulder fatigue and a DL trip and may have contributed to some of his struggles. Here's to next year and hopes of more stories about how he improved his command less stories about dune buggies.

Congratulations to I am Neftali Feliz for having the lowest score* with his projection. Here is a spreadsheet with how everyone did.

*Score is the average number of standard deviations away from the actual 2012 value

Results IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 SCORE
2012 Season 175.3 4.67 7.44 2.67 1.64
LSB Average 205.7 3.56 8.07 2.76 1.01 2.40
ZiPS 173.0 4.16 7.34 3.23 1.04 1.51
Marcel 160.0 4.22 7.48 3.04 1.07 1.49
2011 Season 198.0 3.95 7.36 3.05 1.00 1.90
Top Five Projections
1. I am Neftali Feliz 195.0 4.05 8.00 2.50 1.50 1.32
2. Adam J. Morris 177.0 4.09 7.70 3.10 1.10 1.48
3. ghostofErikThompson 178.0 4.10 7.80 3.20 1.20 1.49
4. thegreatjared 199.0 3.96 7.50 3.00 1.30 1.51
5. philkid3 160.0 4.20 7.30 3.20 1.10 1.62
Bottom Five Projections
113. jshcmp 219.0 2.89 8.10 2.40 0.80 3.45
114. matthewsherill 215.0 3.28 8.70 2.60 0.70 3.46
115. Poltergeist 212.0 3.18 8.50 2.00 0.90 3.49
116. grn_lantern 220.0 3.35 8.30 2.10 0.68 3.60
117. nickbahh 230.0 2.91 8.90 1.60 0.80 4.55
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