2012 Community Projections Results: Alexi Ogando


Reviewing the best and worst of the pre-season community projections.

Alexi Ogando had a very interesting 2011 season. He became the fifth starter only a week before the season started to be a short term replacement until Tommy Hunter came of the DL. He ended up starting off red hot, making the All Star team and then fading in the second half to end up with a pretty good season.

His 2012 was somewhat similar. He only made one start this year, and it was really weird in that he went three perfect innings but had to be removed after pulling a muscle legging out a bunt single. Prior to that in the first half he was excellent as a reliever, posting a 2.08 ERA in 34.2 innings. However, his second half was a disappointment again (though unlikely due to fatigue considering the innings) and he posted a 4.60 ERA in 31.1 innings. One troubling aspect was how home run prone he became, with his HR/9 rising from 0.5 in the first half to 2.1 in the second.

As a late inning reliever, Ogando also had the misfortune of leading the Rangers in Meltdowns (causing the win percentage to drop by at least 6%) by a healthy margin at 11 on the year. Joe Nathan was second with 7 and Mike Adams, Robbie Ross and Tanner Scheppers all tied for 3rd with 6.

At the end of the day it was still a decent year, but disappointing in how it ended. Such was the 2012 Texas Rangers.

Congratulations to Witt(less) for having the lowest score* with his projection. Here is a spreadsheet with how everyone did.

*Score is the average number of standard deviations away from the actual 2012 value

Results IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 SCORE
2012 Season 66.0 3.27 9.00 2.32 1.23
LSB Average 94.2 2.91 8.02 2.53 0.82 1.29
ZiPS 150.0 3.72 7.26 3.00 0.84 2.50
Marcel 130.0 3.53 6.99 2.63 0.83 2.07
2011 Season 169.0 3.51 6.71 2.29 0.85 2.54
Top Five Projections
1. Witt(less) 70.0 3.02 8.90 2.20 1.20 0.26
2. Mr. Abe Froman 99.0 3.22 7.90 2.40 1.21 0.84
3. Dirk Diggler 85.0 2.45 8.40 2.50 0.94 0.84
4. TheGritMaster 96.7 2.98 8.70 2.30 0.92 0.91
5. Maximilian 87.0 3.13 8.20 2.60 0.60 0.99
Bottom Five Projections
116. ckntem 95.0 2.10 7.90 1.40 0.60 2.17
117. LiamP 120.0 4.10 6.20 2.80 1.00 2.28
118. ryjadubya 100.0 1.90 8.00 1.50 0.50 2.34
119. grn_lantern 95.0 1.60 7.50 1.70 0.50 2.43
120. WhipSmart 140.0 2.77 6.10 3.10 0.70 2.89
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