2012 Community Projections Results: Neftali Feliz


Reviewing the best and worst of the pre-season community projections.

The conversion from reliever to starter hit a pretty significant snag in 2012 when Neftali Feliz saw his next 12 months evaporate after having Tommy John surgery in August. He had several starts that showed the promise of a potential dominant starter and the sort of stuff that lead Kevin Goldstein to refer to Feliz and Darvish as the only two with the talent to become a true #1 starter early in the 2012 season.. But he struggled with his command, especially in his last few starts before being shut down, and the UCL injury likely made command even more difficult.

For 2013, Feliz's role is more likely in the bullpen in the last few months of the season. The Rangers front office has mentioned that's probably the fastest way for him to help the team again, as for his opportunity to try and become starter, that remains a giant question mark and one that probably won't even attempt to be answered until 2014.

Congratulations to Mark from OC for having the lowest score* with his projection. Here is a spreadsheet with how everyone did.

*Score is the average number of standard deviations away from the actual 2012 value

Results IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 SCORE
2012 Season 42.7 3.16 7.80 4.85 1.05
LSB Average 152.6 4.09 7.95 3.42 0.98 2.35
ZiPS 170.3 3.49 7.61 3.38 0.74 2.48
Marcel 63.0 3.14 8.14 3.14 0.71 1.32
2011 Season 62.3 2.74 7.80 4.33 0.58 1.06
Top Five Projections
1. Mark from OC 80.0 3.44 8.50 3.50 1.00 1.35
2. JDT217 140.0 4.21 7.80 3.90 1.10 2.01
3. dangerranger 130.0 3.64 7.80 3.10 0.90 2.02
4. thegreatjared 158.0 3.75 7.70 4.40 0.70 2.09
5. NinetyFeet 115.0 3.88 7.70 3.10 0.80 2.10
Bottom Five Projections
96. Dor12 177.0 4.15 8.70 3.20 0.80 3.14
97. Poltergeist 160.0 3.80 8.80 2.50 0.70 3.18
98. Philar 185.0 3.87 9.70 3.10 1.00 3.27
99. I am Neftali Feliz 180.0 3.70 9.00 3.00 0.50 3.40
100. TStag23 183.0 3.88 8.90 2.40 0.70 3.54
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