2012 Community Projections Results: Matt Harrison


Reviewing the best and worst of the pre-season community projections.

Matt Harrison turned in another really good season in 2012, quite the turnaround for a guy that seemed like he might never become a usable starter after his 2008-2010 seasons. In terms of run prevention, Matt Harrison was the Rangers best starter. His peripherals aren't quite as strong as a low strikeout, low walk, reasonable HR guy, but he gets ground balls in front of a strong infield defense and has become a very solid ML starting pitcher.

From the Mark Texiera trade, Harrison ranks second in total WAR behind Elvis Andrus, 13.9 to 9.6 in fWAR but much closer as 9.6 to 8.9 in bWAR. From a projection standpoint there wasn't a ton of variance for Harrison, everyone had a pretty good handle on what kind of starter he'd be and even the most pessimistic weren't terribly far off, coming down mostly to IP and ERA, two areas that Harrison posted career bests and one of the stronger ERA+ in team history with his 138 10th best in franchise history.

Congratulations to Baseball North for having the lowest score* with his projection. Here is a spreadsheet with how everyone did.

*Score is the average number of standard deviations away from the actual 2012 value

Results IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 SCORE
2012 Season 213.3 3.29 5.61 2.49 0.93
LSB Average 188.9 3.73 6.28 2.80 0.88 1.08
ZiPS 156.3 3.97 5.93 2.99 0.81 1.68
Marcel 148.0 3.89 6.20 3.04 0.85 1.83
2011 Season 185.7 3.39 6.11 2.76 0.63 1.11
Top Five Projections
1. Baseball North 210.0 3.25 6.50 2.50 0.80 0.58
2. Black Francis 201.0 3.42 6.40 2.50 1.00 0.64
3. shock00 208.0 3.45 6.20 2.50 0.70 0.67
4. Mark from OC 200.0 3.13 6.30 2.60 0.80 0.76
5. Beevo McKracken 200.0 3.29 6.30 2.60 0.70 0.77
Bottom Five Projections
106. TheGritMaster 175.0 3.99 7.40 2.10 0.67 2.16
107. Akalhar 182.0 4.14 6.30 3.80 1.10 2.16
108. CowboyHornedFrogs 124.0 3.71 5.10 3.20 1.30 2.40
109. LiamP 140.0 4.75 5.50 2.90 1.30 2.51
110. ok.fester 135.0 4.72 5.90 3.30 1.30 2.64
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