Over/Under Poll -- Josh Hamilton OPS
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 10, 2012 12:01 PM CST
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PrintWith the ZiPS projections coming out for the Rangers this week, we are doing a series of polls asking folks to pick whether they think various players will go over or under the OPS that ZiPS projects.
ZiPS projects Josh Hamilton to have an OPS of 839 in 2012.
Do you think it will be over or under that figure? Cast your vote...
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Wow
That would constitute kiiiiind of a downer year, eh? Wonder what kind of contract he would get with 500 PAs at an .839 OPS.
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Over
But not by much. I’m expecting an OPS in the high .800s from Josh.
by RangersfaninROK on Feb 10, 2012 12:07 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I'm blindly voting over on every one of these.
by erudy on Feb 10, 2012 12:14 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
What about the secondary poll below?
Everybody needs somebody to love... I need Yu, Yu, Yu! I need Yu, Yu, Yu!
I hope I haven't offended the Blues Brothers with this.
What does Zyps know that we don't?
I would think .850 should be achievable from a power hitter. And if he improves his discipline at the plate, and becomes more of a mistake hitter (which is what I think he should be), he should approach .900.
I'm not sure why you expect Hamilton to improve his discipline at this stage in his career.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
I don't, thus the word "if"...
but I can always hope he may improve his approach. If he were smart, he would try to improve over his undisciplined approach last year. It would make him some more money. He refers to talking aboutt he philosophy of hitting with the hitting coaches, and it is tough for me to imagine they encourage him not to be selective.
Virtually a no doubter.
How could that projection be that low? Intangibles could be drag, but I doubt that much.
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Secondary poll: over/under on 499 AB
over
Everybody needs somebody to love... I need Yu, Yu, Yu! I need Yu, Yu, Yu!
I hope I haven't offended the Blues Brothers with this.
Yes, this is the far more important question
I think he’ll be over the .839 number, but a little under the 499 ABs.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
Huh. So, roughly 540 PAs?
I’ll go with the Over.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
.839 seems awfully low.
ite-Bay e-May, itches-Bay
by AfterSchoolSpecial on Feb 10, 2012 12:22 PM CST reply actions
I picked over.
ite-Bay e-May, itches-Bay
by AfterSchoolSpecial on Feb 10, 2012 12:22 PM CST up reply actions
Age curve?
I’m sure ZIPS factors one in.
Everybody needs somebody to love... I need Yu, Yu, Yu! I need Yu, Yu, Yu!
I hope I haven't offended the Blues Brothers with this.
The only justification for it that I could think of
is the thought that his body is broken, and he’s going to be on a sharper decline age-curve-wise.
But, I wouldn’t think that ZiPs takes that into account—maybe I’m wrong.
I'd be really interested in knowing what it is it's detecting in Hamilton.
Might just be people his age with his profile and rate of games missed hit a cliff even faster than I expected.
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That's got to be part of it
Also, he is a below average walk rate, swing at everything, power hitter. I do not think those age too well.
We’re not about sending messages. We’re about winning ballgames.-Wash, 04/03/11
Hell to the fucking no. -Wash, 10/07/11
That's what I meant by profile.
I was lazy.
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
Dan told me...
…when he sent me the future ZiPS Hamilton projections for the piece I did a month or so ago that the injuries are the biggest issue. Players that get hurt a lot tend to get hurt more as they age, and tend to suffer quicker dropoffs in performance.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 10, 2012 2:37 PM CST up reply actions
this would be a more accurate bar, imo
and harder to decide the over under on it
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
Taking the under on .890 is almost as easy for me as taking the over on .839.
Which side to lean towards is what’s hard, but I think the former.
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
over
and not just cause everyone else said so
"...out of the shadows of unprecedented success, the sun shines down upon this team waiting to thrill anew." - ghostofErikThompson
Wow, surprised there's this many under votes
That’s lower than 4 of his 5 seasons, 70 points lower than his career OPS, and 43 points lower than last year.
I don’t think age 31 is THAT big of a wall to hit.
over
and just cause everyone else said so
We’re not about sending messages. We’re about winning ballgames.-Wash, 04/03/11
Hell to the fucking no. -Wash, 10/07/11
over
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If I had a gun to my head and had to pick one pitcher to pitch a game to save my life.... I'd pick 1999 Rick Helling.
Dear Rangers, Make me forget about 2010.......
by matthewbschultz83 on Feb 10, 2012 1:28 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
JD on the Ticket
He says the club wants to keep Hammy here, if they can reach an agreement. However, contract is not a concern right now, getting Josh support is. Says he is a perfect fit for the team, Texas, the fans, etc.
We’re not about sending messages. We’re about winning ballgames.-Wash, 04/03/11
Hell to the fucking no. -Wash, 10/07/11
"She just needs to continue to be cute and shut up."
lol
We’re not about sending messages. We’re about winning ballgames.-Wash, 04/03/11
Hell to the fucking no. -Wash, 10/07/11
I'm taking the way over.
But I think either way over or way under are the most likely outcomes. It’s a contract year. But he’s also injury prone and his head may not be right with this relapse.
I think he’ll be very very good this year.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
by Brad on Feb 10, 2012 2:44 PM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
I'm expecting two monster months from Josh to tip the scales
On what would otherwise be a pedestrian. 815 OPS on the year.
by dolphinpuncher on Feb 10, 2012 3:46 PM CST via mobile reply actions
it's an even numbered year
So I take the way over
Texas Rangers- You hang 'em, we bang 'em!
by coldskeet on Feb 10, 2012 8:30 PM CST via iPhone app reply actions
Under.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Ryin A on Feb 10, 2012 8:45 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Are you predicting many distractions for Josh this year?
Sex tape scandal…marriage issues…
"If he ain't struck you out, then you ain't nobody." - Ricky Henderson after Nolan Ryan's 5,000 strike out game
by safeman on Feb 10, 2012 9:46 PM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
I think if that tape thing is real and if his wife kicks his ass to the curb then there's going to be disaster.
I don’t think it’ll happen…but, if.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
She's not kicking his ass to the curb the year before he gets The Contract...she's not stupid.
Josh has had exactly 1 season out of 5 in The Show where his OPS was below .882 and that was an injury riddled season (played 89 games).
ZIPS has it’s collective head up it’s ass if they think Josh is going to have an OPS below .840.
Way over but then again there are Vast Segments who accuse me of not being a fan of the Texas Rangers.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
that was also the season where he had his other public relapse
so there could have been other things going on off the field as well that could have affected his play. Either way, Ryin says he doesn’t think it will happen, but distractions do matter in a game that is so mental. You have to have to head right to perform every day at a level we are used to seeing Hamilton perform.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
Well separating and officially divorcing are two different things
She could kick him out without divorcing him until after the contract comes.
She really doesn't strike me as the type of person who'd stick around in a marriage just so she could get paid....
but, I don’t know her.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
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