Nelson Cruz OPS Over/Under Poll

by Adam J. Morris on Feb 13, 2012 1:30 PM CST

ST LOUIS, MO - OCTOBER 28: Nelson Cruz #17 of the Texas Rangers leaps against the wall for a solo home run by David Freese #23 of the St. Louis Cardinals in the third inning during Game Seven of the MLB World Series at Busch Stadium on October 28, 2011 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)

With the ZiPS projections coming out for the Rangers last week, we are doing a series of polls asking folks to pick whether they think various players will go over or under the OPS that ZiPS projects.

ZiPS projects Nelson Cruz to have an OPS of 838 in 2012.

Do you think it will be over or under that figure? Cast your vote...

Poll

Will Nelson Cruz's OPS be over or under 838?

Over

412 votes

Under

134 votes

546 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 36 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

My scientific reason concludes that he will be WTFO.

eom

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by Parman on Feb 13, 2012 1:47 PM CST reply actions

Over.

The Hamilton and Cruz projections are ridiculously low.

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by JDT217 on Feb 13, 2012 1:54 PM CST reply actions

I think it is hard to call the Cruz projection ridiculously low...

…when it is projecting him to be better than he was last season.

by Adam J. Morris on Feb 13, 2012 1:55 PM CST up reply actions

I think this one is justifiable

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by Gay For Feliz on Feb 13, 2012 2:49 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Hehehehe...

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by Josey Wales on Feb 13, 2012 2:58 PM CST up reply actions

Good thing we've got more than one season's worth of data to go on. Phew.

by JDT217 on Feb 13, 2012 4:55 PM CST up reply actions

His other two full seasons (relatively speaking due to health)

856 and 950

Lets not make it seem like hes a perennial 900 OPS guy who just had a down year last year. I think a lot of people remember his 2010 and think thats the Nellie we should see going forward when in reality thats probably like Napoli’s 2011…..a fluke/career year

by bigsteve on Feb 13, 2012 5:01 PM CST up reply actions

PECOTA has him at 857

by Adam J. Morris on Feb 13, 2012 5:29 PM CST up reply actions

I'd be much slower to take the over on that.

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by philkid3 on Feb 13, 2012 6:09 PM CST via iPhone app up reply actions

Over.

I’ll check what CAIRO says later.

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by philkid3 on Feb 13, 2012 1:56 PM CST reply actions

Kinsler, Hamilton, and Cruz

all virtually have the same OPS projection.

Kinsler has historically been under that, Hamilton is easily over, and Cruz is a borderline candidate that makes it a bit harder to choose, imo, but I’ll take the over.

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by NothinG on Feb 13, 2012 2:14 PM CST reply actions

Everyone's going to be over

by Jobu. on Feb 13, 2012 2:21 PM CST reply actions

103-59

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by philkid3 on Feb 13, 2012 2:50 PM CST via iPhone app up reply actions

Going to be a great season

by Jobu. on Feb 13, 2012 5:14 PM CST up reply actions

Over - but just barely

.840-.850

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by Gay For Feliz on Feb 13, 2012 2:50 PM CST via mobile reply actions

I picked under

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by AfterSchoolSpecial on Feb 13, 2012 3:13 PM CST reply actions

I went with the over

but that’s not unusual. Much of his OPS is determined by when he is injured and if he has a chance to come back with a rehab assignment in Round Rock. If he has to come back late in the season, his OPS will suffer. While I am predicting over because of his power, I am not as bullish on him as the Yahoo fantasy baseball people are. I would guess about .845 with very few walks.

by Philar on Feb 13, 2012 3:28 PM CST reply actions

I think Cruz is going to smash this projection.

And lead the team in OPS this year.

by Heebs on Feb 13, 2012 4:14 PM CST reply actions

Over....he's gonna break necks this year.

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by Ryin A on Feb 13, 2012 4:40 PM CST reply actions

He has MVP ceiling

I want to see it so badly

by Jobu. on Feb 13, 2012 5:14 PM CST up reply actions

He probably doesn't actually

he has really really good player ceiling but I wouldn’t say MVP ceiling

by bigsteve on Feb 13, 2012 5:15 PM CST up reply actions

People love dingers.

If he stayed healthy for a full season and had a strong year (big ifs on both). He could do a .300 45HR type of year.

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by Brad on Feb 13, 2012 5:16 PM CST up reply actions

He absolutely does.

He’s played at an MVP rate, so we know that’s in his ability. Health is just good luck away.

I’m down on his odds of repeating those rates or staying healthy, nut the ceiling is there.

Unless this is Case No. 3,766 on Why “Ceiling” Needs a Better Definition.

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by philkid3 on Feb 13, 2012 5:24 PM CST via iPhone app up reply actions

I guess if you believe he is a true +10 UZR defender then he was at a MVP rate

I dont

I dont believe he is a -6 like last year either

Offensively as great as he was he still only put up a 950 OPS and was heavily helped by his insane .348 BABIP. His walk rate is trending the wrong direction and given his injury history I doubt he will ever be near the defender he was a couple years ago. I dont believe he has MVP ceiling

by bigsteve on Feb 13, 2012 5:31 PM CST up reply actions

If he can hit .300, 40 dongs, 15 SB's, he'd be a strong candidate

It would take luck, sure, but he definitely has it in him.

The toughest part for him would be RBI’s, since Wash bats him so late in the lineup.

by Jobu. on Feb 13, 2012 5:45 PM CST up reply actions

I think you're confusing ceiling with reasonable projection.

by JDT217 on Feb 13, 2012 6:06 PM CST up reply actions

Healthy hammies and 150 games of plus defense in RF?

He has 7-7.5 WAR ceiling, which “puts him in the conversation.”

by JDT217 on Feb 13, 2012 6:05 PM CST up reply actions

We need 3 healthy hammies

by RangerMad on Feb 13, 2012 9:06 PM CST up reply actions

I just hope he doesn't break his own neck

Guy is injury-proned so you never know.

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by TRanger on Feb 13, 2012 6:06 PM CST up reply actions

Went under

.320 OBP and .510 SLG is what I predict right now

real over under should be games played

Over/Under 125?

by bigsteve on Feb 13, 2012 4:50 PM CST reply actions

Over.

It’s his turn to go against the grain re: GP.

Hamilton – Kinsler – Nellie

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by Ryin A on Feb 13, 2012 4:52 PM CST up reply actions

over

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by I am Neftali Feliz on Feb 13, 2012 4:56 PM CST reply actions

Over. Ridiculous year upcoming.

by dolphinpuncher on Feb 13, 2012 5:18 PM CST via mobile reply actions

Under

Not by much but injuries will keep him under again. I’m thinking .800-.820

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by TRanger on Feb 13, 2012 6:08 PM CST reply actions

Over. It better be over for my fantasy team (I know, I know.. no one cares, fair enough)

The dude crushes the ball. It’s whether he will play 110 games or 145 that’s the key question with Cruz. I’m hoping the latter.

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by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 13, 2012 7:40 PM CST reply actions

Over

health will be the issue again for him, but I think he’s a great bet to at least repeat last season’s performance which doesn’t put him so far away from the ZIPS projection.

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by Gdawg on Feb 13, 2012 7:53 PM CST reply actions