Adrian Beltre OPS Over/Under Poll
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 14, 2012 1:30 PM CST
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With the ZiPS projections coming out for the Rangers last week, we are doing a series of polls asking folks to pick whether they think various players will go over or under the OPS that ZiPS projects.
ZiPS projects Adrian Beltre to have an OPS of 817 in 2012.
Do you think it will be over or under that figure? Cast your vote...
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Yup.
Over
Don’t Speak
"Look if you want a journalist hire a UT grad. If you want a doctor you pick a Baylor grad. If you need a vet you see an Aggie grad. And if you need a pizza you call a Tech grad." -BUBacker
Beware of Trolls: b.pate, K.S.B., Panorama, TideNtexas
No Doubt
"Look if you want a journalist hire a UT grad. If you want a doctor you pick a Baylor grad. If you need a vet you see an Aggie grad. And if you need a pizza you call a Tech grad." -BUBacker
Beware of Trolls: b.pate, K.S.B., Panorama, TideNtexas
These all seem low
Trying to be as unbiased as possible…but only the Napoli one has seemed like a tough choice for me.
Wait, did we trade him back to Seattle?
Over.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
Are these adjusted for neutral park and we just don't know it?
Dan Szymborski
Dan Szymborski
Dan Szymborski
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by philkid3 on Feb 14, 2012 3:53 PM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
I'm almost positive I've seen him reference that they are not.
But ZiPS hates old players.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
*not adjusted
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
I feel the same.
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
by philkid3 on Feb 14, 2012 4:19 PM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
PECOTA's OPS is about the same for Beltre
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 14, 2012 6:01 PM CST up reply actions
Interesting.
And scary.
He’s a good off-a-cliff candidate at some point, I’d just prefer it not be year 2.
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
Gee, I wonder how the Vast Segments see this one?
Better be careful …Beltre’s 2011 OPS sat at .813 at the AS Break and he blew it out of the water in September.
He walks less than 5% of the time and turns 33 in early April…he’s also finished with an OPS above .817 exactly three times in a 14 year career.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
79% voted over at the moment I typed this
So, I would say the vast segment of LSB is taking the over. Obviously.
This was the easiest one yet.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
I'm taking the under.
And not because of some bias/trolling like Josey. I just wouldn’t be surprised to see him start declined a bit with the bat. Free swingers always concern me when they get in their 30’s.
Park factor makes it an easy decision for me.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
by JDT217 on Feb 14, 2012 2:26 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
How am I trolling?
I just said be careful and rolled out a few facts.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Hamilton was the easiest one for me
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
Don't you have to take into account
that Beltre has played the majority of his career for the Dodgers and Mariners in pitcher-friendly ballparks?
by Rangers Fan Mike on Feb 14, 2012 2:22 PM CST up reply actions
Sure...but Beltre was in his 20s then...shouldn't rational people also take into consideration
that he’s such a free swinger (less than 5% walks) and is going to be 33 years old this April?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
I might agree with you if
he didn’t have such vastly different seasons for the Mariners and the last two years when he wasn’t suppressed by the ballpark.
are you factoring in his last two seasons at all? and I’m talking about full seasons here. last time I checked, these projections are for a full season, so it might be best if your arguments were limited to such numbers
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
Full season?
Are you crazy? Just ignore September. Those games don’t count.
It amazes me that you make these arguments...
that are nearly interchangable with Mike Young.
"Blalock in the cleanup spot makes gives me agita." - Dustin
If it makes you feel better, I think Young's over / under OPS is around .770 and I don't know what
the hell to do with it for many of the same reasons but namely because he’ll be 35 years old on Opening Day.
I didn’t bring up Young because this thread is supposed to be about Beltre….and for the record, I haven’t voted one way or another….merely urged people to be careful out there, like the ol’ sarge on Hillstreet Blues.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
It's not that amazing
when you consider a very obvious difference between the two…
"Calmer than you are dude"
We tell our guys, control the controllables. Trust the process and don't sweat results. Be the casino.
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Feb 14, 2012 3:35 PM CST up reply actions
What's that, Woodcock?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Helloooooo...crickets.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
If you divide walks by plate appearances
Michael Young and Adrian Beltre have almost identical walk rates in their career.
"Calmer than you are dude"
We tell our guys, control the controllables. Trust the process and don't sweat results. Be the casino.
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Feb 14, 2012 3:07 PM CST up reply actions
And the number is 6.7%
Not sure where the less than 5% is coming from…
"Calmer than you are dude"
We tell our guys, control the controllables. Trust the process and don't sweat results. Be the casino.
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Feb 14, 2012 3:17 PM CST up reply actions
25 walks / 525 plate appearances in 2011 = 4.76%
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Okay.
I got confused because you bounce between career numbers and last season’s numbers so often that people can’t keep up.
"Calmer than you are dude"
We tell our guys, control the controllables. Trust the process and don't sweat results. Be the casino.
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Feb 14, 2012 3:32 PM CST up reply actions
When did I say his career walk rate was below 5%?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
When did you say you were only talking about last year?
"Calmer than you are dude"
We tell our guys, control the controllables. Trust the process and don't sweat results. Be the casino.
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Feb 14, 2012 3:39 PM CST up reply actions
WHY DID YOU KILL THOSE FIVE HOOKERS AT SMU?
Perseverance isn't just the willingness to work hard. It's that, plus the willingness to be stubborn about your own belief in yourself."
---Merlin Olsen
Actually thanks for this
JW said he “walks less than 5% of the time” and I thought he absolutely was talking about career and thought that was pretty low.
Football can go to hell. The Rangers aren't ready for football season and neither am I.
by WyoRanger on Feb 14, 2012 8:25 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Haven't voted yet.
Will probably vote over tonight.
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by philkid3 on Feb 14, 2012 2:17 PM CST via iPhone app reply actions
You aren't sure how you are voting?
I think this one is the easiest yet.
Napoli, Hamilton, and Cruz were all tough ones for me. Even Kinsler was a harder decision than this one.
I'm never sure before looking around at evidence first.
I don’t like voting from my gut.
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
Further, two quality projection systems are putting him in the low .800s.
Unless we have special insight to Beltre. . . and I’m not sure we do. . . it’s a bit presumptuous to call going over (or under) easy, when they outperform our intuitive guesses so regularly.
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
a tad bit over...
but dat D will make it seem like 30-40 over.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
Beltre has managed to reduce his K-rate the previous two years.
If this wasn’t the case, I would take a more cautious approach to his age & the impeding decline in production. Being that this is the case, there really are no signs pointing towards any sort of decline due to age. Injuries & other variables can come into play but that hand-eye coordination is as good as it’s ever been.
Over.
Just like the lives of those hookers at SMU, right Craig?
There's a fire in the city of pictures
Leaving nothing but ashes below
Looking at it again, Over.
And probably more comfortably than in any of these yet.
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
.817 seems like his floor
Over; .870
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
.817 would seem like a crash and burn
Somebody last year wrote that I would like Beltre’s production in this park and they nailed. I see no reason for a substantial regression while playing half of his games in RBiA.
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