Crowd Sourcing: First Base

by philkid3 on Feb 15, 2012 9:06 AM CST

Thanks for voting in the catching poll, everyone.

Next up is first base. CAIRO gives Mitch Moreland a .759 OPS this year, while ZiPS gives him a .753. Pretty close. For these purposes, I'm going to split the difference, and ask you how regularly he'll play if that's the case. We can debate whether that's too high or too low when Adam puts up his thingy. Commence cut & paste.

Hey guys. I'm going to do another Rangers forecast this year based on some projection system (probably ZiPS or CAIRO or a mixture, don't know yet). I'll use that for the rate stats, but the best way to forecast playing time is to ask the knowledgeable fans. And LSB is, of course, the most knowledgeable Rangers fanbase.

So, I'm going to put up a series of polls trying to get y'all's ideas on playing time, and those will be the basis of the thingy (and I'll be acknowledging your help). Feel free to argue or OT or whatever in the comments, the poll is all I need. Suggestions and stuff also welcome.

This is not meant as a replacement or opposition to the LSB predictions that I assume we will eventually do. It may help you in gauging PA totals there, though.

Your help is greatly appreciated!

Poll

If Mitch Moreland is a 756 OPS (overall) hitter in 2012, how much playing time will he get (with full health)?

He will be the full-time first baseman, backed up by Young and Napoli in that order.

125 votes

He will be the full-time first baseman, backed up by Napoli and Young in that order.

85 votes

He will platoon with Young.

78 votes

He will platoon with Napoli.

58 votes

He will platoon with someone else (explain).

8 votes

He will lose his job, and Young will take over first.

26 votes

He will lose his job, and Napoli will take over first.

5 votes

Some other arrangement you missed, I'll explain below.

11 votes

396 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

He will lose his job, and be replaced by Brad Hawpe as one half of the 1B platoon with Young.

Napoli will play something like 30-35 games at 1B.

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by JDT217 on Feb 15, 2012 9:08 AM CST reply actions

Thanks.

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by philkid3 on Feb 15, 2012 9:15 AM CST up reply actions

did you pick other?

i am saying this as well

not specifically hawpe, but he loses his job, someone replaces him and napoli is btwn 30 and 40 games at 1B

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Feb 15, 2012 10:07 AM CST up reply actions

If this seems to be the consensus for "other," I'll use the "other" % to implement that.

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by philkid3 on Feb 15, 2012 11:03 AM CST up reply actions

I picked other.

by JDT217 on Feb 15, 2012 11:45 AM CST up reply actions

Yeah, that's the way I'm feeling.

He’ll be in Round Rock, someone else not currently on the roster will be the primary first baseman, and Naps and Face will play there a little depending on the situation

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by vfn on Feb 15, 2012 1:21 PM CST up reply actions

The reason he won't be replaced

is because there is nobody to replace him. I doubt Hawpe shows enough promise for the club to want to replace Moreland.

by ab03 on Feb 15, 2012 5:34 PM CST up reply actions

Although I voted for platoon with someone else,

your point is pretty much what I am thinking. If Hawpe shows he can hit in Round Rock, and Mitch is not hitting/getting on base enough, then Naps, Young and Hawpe will probably be the replacement.

by Philar on Feb 15, 2012 10:47 AM CST up reply actions

If hes hitting at that level his playing time will be determined by the health of the rest of the team

If Kinsler or Beltre are out and Young has to fill in for them Moreland will keep his job.

If Torrealba is down and Napoli is forced to catch the majority of the time Moreland will keep his job.

But if everyone is healthy and Moreland is a ~750 OPS type guy I think they send him down to AAA to play everyday and work on some things while a combo of Hawpe/Napoli/Young fill in at 1B

by bigsteve on Feb 15, 2012 9:17 AM CST reply actions

Eh I chose the wrong option

I think he’ll be the full-time first baseman, backed up by Young and Napoli in that order. If he goes down, Young to first and Conor Jackson to back him up to keep Napoli behind the plate more often.

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by Pith on Feb 15, 2012 9:47 AM CST reply actions

He will lose his job, get seriously drunk and wake up in Morocco where he will live out his days running a camel taxi service.

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by WhipSmart on Feb 15, 2012 9:50 AM CST reply actions

X

have you seen his new bride?
No reason to drown his sorrows in Morocco when he can rest on her ‘laurels’ and rebuild his confidence for when he’s traded to Baltimore.

by CO Ranger on Feb 15, 2012 1:36 PM CST up reply actions

I think he'll hit closer to .800

and get close to 90-100 games at 1B, with Young and Napoli splitting the rest. I’m quite optimistic that Moreland will hit reasonably well if his wrist is healed. He’s being underrated by the projection systems because of his injury last year.

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by t ball on Feb 15, 2012 10:02 AM CST reply actions

i agree..we cant give up on homegrown talent

he has shown enough to merit a longer look

by capps1 on Feb 15, 2012 10:54 AM CST up reply actions

I want to emphasize this is NOT about what we think can or should happen.

It’s what we think, given that projected performance, the Rangers will do, like it or not.

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by philkid3 on Feb 15, 2012 11:04 AM CST up reply actions

OPS is an interesting stat in this case because it is influenced by OBP and slugging.

Typically a first baseman would drive the OPS up by slugging, but I think in the case of Mooreland on this team, he needs to go back to being more of the crafty left handed batter we saw in the 2010 playoffs. His power is not extremely important on this team, but him getting on base, and battling against opposing pitchers to help wear them out is important. I am not sure we saw that approach in the second half of the season.

I have always heard that wrist injuries influence power more with hitting, but Mitch just seemed to drop off the stats sheet last year in what he was capable of doing. To my thinking Mitch Mooreland is the biggest mystery on this team, besides maybe exactly how successful Yu Darvish will be.

by Philar on Feb 15, 2012 11:13 AM CST up reply actions

I would happily use wOBA or EQA instead, but would worry about that driving off potential voters.

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by philkid3 on Feb 15, 2012 12:10 PM CST up reply actions

and because he cant hit LHP in the majors so far

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Feb 15, 2012 11:41 AM CST up reply actions

I agree with this

I think he’ll get platooned a good amount at the beginning of the year, to get MY and Napoli some time at 1B and others on the team some time at DH.

But I think seeing mostly RH-ed pitching and given a healed wrist, he’ll perform above these projections. Good power and solid OBP.

by CO Ranger on Feb 15, 2012 1:38 PM CST up reply actions

Wow....I've never seen votes on something this spread out.

We really have no idea how this 1st base thing is gonna play out, do we?

My bad.

by b.pate on Feb 15, 2012 11:05 AM CST reply actions

Oh yea....

I think Moreland will be healthy and motivated from all the Fielder talk and knows the organization is giving him this year to prove if he can be the 1B of the future.

I hope he fucking rakes!!

My bad.

by b.pate on Feb 15, 2012 11:09 AM CST up reply actions

It really is a crap shoot

Because we don’t know:
- how much the injury is responsible for Moreland’s performance last year
- how healthy the wrist is right now
- how long it will take him to get back to “normal” considering how long he played hurt
- how healthy the other guys that rotate into the DH spot will be
- how much Napoli’s ankle will let him do, especially early on
- how healthy Hamilton will be and how much he might DH, which could have ripple effects…
and so on.

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Feb 15, 2012 2:24 PM CST up reply actions

What option do I choose

if I think he’s going to platoon with the starts against LHP being split among Napoli and Young pretty eqaully?

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by Gdawg on Feb 15, 2012 11:24 AM CST reply actions

Yeah, I would have voted for this one too if I was forced to believe his OPS would be 756

by MikeEl on Feb 15, 2012 12:08 PM CST up reply actions

Just vote for someone else and tell me that's the someone else.

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by philkid3 on Feb 15, 2012 12:11 PM CST up reply actions

If I had to pick one, I would have picked option 2,

but what I would like is some combination of 2 and 4.

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by Prashanth Francis on Feb 15, 2012 11:32 AM CST reply actions

This is my exact answer

by Jobu. on Feb 15, 2012 11:55 AM CST up reply actions

Mine too.

My bad.

by b.pate on Feb 15, 2012 12:01 PM CST up reply actions

I think I voted he will platoon with Napoli, if his OPS is .756

but I really think he’ll be much better than that this season and given that, will receive plate appearances reflective of a full-time first basemen.

by MikeEl on Feb 15, 2012 12:07 PM CST reply actions

Thanks.

Seriously. I’m worried about people saying “well, he’ll better than that” and voting based on how they think he’ll do.

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by philkid3 on Feb 15, 2012 12:12 PM CST up reply actions

I think the Rangers will give him a chance to show what he's got

if he’s healthy, and that will lead to what I’m predicting, just to clarify.

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Feb 15, 2012 2:26 PM CST up reply actions

I have a feeling the club is going to try more than 3 options at first by season's end.

The only thing I can really say with confidence at this point is that I don’t see him as the everyday first baseman. Those numbers against lefties are horrid, and Hawpe’s probably capable of posting a better slash line against righties.

Question I have is, would you mind seeing Moreland’s numbers against righties dip if it meant he improved considerably against lefties?

by dolphinpuncher on Feb 15, 2012 12:16 PM CST via mobile reply actions

#2 is the most viable option at this point

by dolphinpuncher on Feb 15, 2012 12:18 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Joey Votto ;)

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by Gay For Feliz on Feb 15, 2012 12:32 PM CST via mobile reply actions

I was thinking we should shop for Carlos Peguero and convert him to 1B

by dolphinpuncher on Feb 15, 2012 12:40 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

HE WAS OUR'S DAMNIT

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by Prashanth Francis on Feb 15, 2012 1:09 PM CST up reply actions

This is wrong on multiple levels.

by LiamP on Feb 15, 2012 3:28 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

How so?

The Rangers were in on him as a LA signee, no?

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by Prashanth Francis on Feb 15, 2012 4:31 PM CST up reply actions

No.

I think you’re confusing him with Guillermo Pimentel.

Also, no apostrophe needed.

by LiamP on Feb 15, 2012 4:46 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Ohhh.

Yeah, you are correct. Thanks.

Hmmm. Thanks for the grammar tip. I did not know that.

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by Prashanth Francis on Feb 15, 2012 4:53 PM CST up reply actions

I have no idea about the grammar thing, it just looked off. Of all the people here, I'm the last person that should be doling out grammar tips.

But yeah, you definitely don’t want Peguero.

by LiamP on Feb 15, 2012 5:07 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

He will do what he do…..Play mostly @ 1st but I bet we will see him in the outfield more than once this year…….Does the Wash.

by Stay Cool on Feb 15, 2012 2:02 PM CST reply actions

For a question like this

I think the key is to not over think. And it looks like the simple answer is the one that is winning

by ab03 on Feb 15, 2012 5:36 PM CST reply actions

I’d love to see Mitch have a big season with improved batting and better defense. But I expect a 3-way platoon for the position for most of the season unless one of those three gets red hot with the bat again. Other teams would love to have the situation the Rangers have at first.

by OnlookerTX on Feb 15, 2012 9:34 PM CST reply actions