Yu Darvish Fangraphs Projection
He's going to be good.
4 months ago
I am Neftali Feliz
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whoever Oliver is.. I like his projection best
"God dammit TAG I swear to God if you keep this "It was a close play" shit up all night I will send you cookies made from my own shit" -River Fenix 8/26/2011
"this is a big reason I decided not to convert to Islam now if it was 72 skanks? Different story, my friend" Bob Loblaw 9/2/2011
by I am Neftali Feliz on Feb 2, 2012 1:42 PM CST reply actions
Even the less optimistic projections
look pretty good. That and the scouting reports have me pretty excited about what Yu can du for the Ryan Sausage Fighters. I’m drooling for spring training reports.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
Though I think league average GB% is ridiculous in the NPB.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
I have a hard time getting super excited about taht
Isn’t Ichiro’s typical slap it and sprint style commonplace over there?
Just don't piss her off, otherwise she'll get all Dien Bien Phu up in your Boxer Rebellion - caknuck
btho Iowa State
The ground ball rates are lower there
which is why Oliver adjusted the ground ball rate up in his last projection, but Ichiro’s hitting style is not typical. He actually clashed a lot early on with coaches.
Hideki Matsui – that is a typical style.
So somewhere between Cain and Felix Hernandez...
is where Yu Darvish is probably projecting? That would work! I’m still trying to grasp realisticly how good Darvish might be, and I’m really not coming up with anything solid. I guess that’s why they play the game or games.
I like the Felix with more Ks or Ubaldo with fewer BBs
Football can go to hell. The Rangers aren't ready for football season and neither am I.
by WyoRanger on Feb 2, 2012 2:45 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
He might as well have been openly fellating LSB at that point.
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
I needed a moist towelette after that
Defending Big D Check it out
Twitter
"You guys are talking about living forever like it’s a real thing, but I bust out a man shoving his head into a vagina, and it’s srs time?"
--iorange555 8/23/2011
I, for one, thank him for it.
"The Angels are like the villain in the movie that isn't dead until he's been stabbed 150 times in the bath tub, yet he still might come back up one more time." - Eric Nadel
Uh, no.
Though I’d be pretty disappointed in his apparent lack of run support…
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
by JDT217 on Feb 2, 2012 2:16 PM CST up reply actions 5 recs
Begs the question
I’m guessing these projections take into account park and league factors. Do they take into account team-specific D and offense?
Football can go to hell. The Rangers aren't ready for football season and neither am I.
by WyoRanger on Feb 2, 2012 2:49 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
For all intensive purposes I used the phrase correctly
Football can go to hell. The Rangers aren't ready for football season and neither am I.
by WyoRanger on Feb 2, 2012 3:25 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
That was
a dominate answer. So good, in fact, it disorientated me.
"It’s Advil and beef in the Texas Rangers, you yankee bastard."
- Nolan Ryan
I wouldn't of said that
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
by t ball on Feb 2, 2012 10:27 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Under rated
Best Minor League System in baseball, Best Overseas scouting in baseball, Best Front Office in baseball, and, of course, the Moneypenis™ Jorge C 1/28/12
Right
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
If you throw out the wins I would not be disappointed.
If he has an 8.23 K/9 and a 3.21 era in 195 innings, I think he’ll probably win more than 14 games with this lineup.
pitchers get wins?
I don’t understand.
by TheHuntforRedOctober on Feb 2, 2012 2:27 PM CST up reply actions
I'm throbbing.
I can’t wait for Spring Training.
"The Angels are like the villain in the movie that isn't dead until he's been stabbed 150 times in the bath tub, yet he still might come back up one more time." - Eric Nadel
ewww
"God dammit TAG I swear to God if you keep this "It was a close play" shit up all night I will send you cookies made from my own shit" -River Fenix 8/26/2011
"this is a big reason I decided not to convert to Islam now if it was 72 skanks? Different story, my friend" Bob Loblaw 9/2/2011
by I am Neftali Feliz on Feb 2, 2012 2:40 PM CST up reply actions
Yu know Yu are too.
"The Angels are like the villain in the movie that isn't dead until he's been stabbed 150 times in the bath tub, yet he still might come back up one more time." - Eric Nadel
So the fangraphs article is a bit misleading
Showing the optimistic Oliver projection when they link to the article that actually adjusted it down to one of three categories.
I would be completely fine with the most pessimistic Oliver projection based on the top 5 comps given peripherals that are adjusted down:
ERA HR% BB% K%
3.41 3.0% 8.4% 23.4%
But as someone in the comments kind of pointed out, that HR rate is just guessing. He had miniscule HR rates in Japan but it would have to go up here. Of course, that 3% HR percentage is not super low.
His GB/HR rate will be interesting...
He was getting close to 60% GB in Japan, which would be among the best in MLB. Does anyone know if it translates directly or do pitchers usually have a lower GB% in MLB?
"...Ron Washington is the Les Miles of MLB." - AJM
No way it translates directly.
He should still be good because his stuff is good, but not that good.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
You should read the Oliver article
it addresses it directly.
In its most pessimistic projection, Oliver decided to adjust it to 55%.
Well
it addresses it directly but not in a very scientific way. Just guesses at the 55% number because MLB probably has a lower GB rate than NPB.
I think Darvish's GB tendencies are his most overlooked statistic
Even Goldstein was calling Darvish a neutral FO/GO pitcher at the beginning of the posting process, which is obviously not true. He was by far the best NPB pitcher at suppressing HRs, though we don’t know how much of that is due to his ginormous home park.
"...Ron Washington is the Les Miles of MLB." - AJM
I WAS GUESSING
SANDY KOUFAX
"Why do people take such an instant dislike to me?" asked a perplexed [Newt] Gingrich, to whom [Bob] Dole bluntly explained: "Because it saves them time."
WHY YOU SO DOWN ON YU!?!?
"I’d love to walk in and hug everybody every day, but that’s not critical to us winning." - Jon Daniels
BOB GIBSON OR GTFO
"The Angels are like the villain in the movie that isn't dead until he's been stabbed 150 times in the bath tub, yet he still might come back up one more time." - Eric Nadel
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