2012 Texas Rangers ZiPS Projections
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 8, 2012 10:57 AM CST
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PrintDan Szymborski has posted the 2012 ZiPS projections for the Texas Rangers at the Baseball Think Factory.
Some interesting stuff, with ZiPS being bullish on Mike Napoli and Neftali Feliz, among others, and (relatively) bearish on Josh Hamilton and Michael Young, who are projected to drop off from their 2011 performances.
Szymborski says that the addition of Darvish puts Texas back ahead of the Angels in the A.L. West, and also has some praise for the team's defense, saying that folks don't realize how good the team is across the board defensively.
Anyway...check it out...
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ZIPS loves them some Neftali Feliz.
Not so much on Leonys Martin.
Ever been in a boardroom, or a gang fight? Ever save a life? Ever won a court case against the odds? Ever held a dying buddy in your arms?.- jackanape on "perspective," 11/8/2010.
"do you a jet ski rental place would work here" - Mike E, 5/10/2011.
This might be the most bullish projection of Feliz. And, Leonys, well, his projection does beat out
Gentry and hangs with Borbon. No small feat given ZiPS has a lot more ML data on Gentry/Borbon than Leonys.
Everybody needs somebody to love... I need Yu, Yu, Yu! I need Yu, Yu, Yu!
I hope I haven't offended the Blues Brothers with this.
I'd be ecstatic if Feliz lived up to those numbers.....
Ditto for Darvish…..
And look at the ages of those starting pitchers…………
"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Feb 8, 2012 11:26 AM CST up reply actions
that is pretty nice
and they get even younger next year
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
Feliz should go to Japan
and become a god.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
by t ball on Feb 8, 2012 1:29 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
oh my god
"God dammit TAG I swear to God if you keep this "It was a close play" shit up all night I will send you cookies made from my own shit" -River Fenix 8/26/2011
"this is a big reason I decided not to convert to Islam now if it was 72 skanks? Different story, my friend" Bob Loblaw 9/2/2011
by I am Neftali Feliz on Feb 8, 2012 1:46 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Didn't we discuss this directly with Szymborski last year?
About ZiPs really loved Feliz last year as a starter?
Another projection system, another strong projection for Yu.
Not as aggressive as some others that have a sub-3.0 ERA, but still points to either (1) Yu is likely to be at least a #2 THIS SEASON or (2) everyone will learn a lot about failures in their projection systems.
Everybody needs somebody to love... I need Yu, Yu, Yu! I need Yu, Yu, Yu!
I hope I haven't offended the Blues Brothers with this.
Not even ZiPS can figure out who should move to the Pen.
Slight edge to Ogando over Harrison but both beat Holland by a good amount.
Everybody needs somebody to love... I need Yu, Yu, Yu! I need Yu, Yu, Yu!
I hope I haven't offended the Blues Brothers with this.
Uh
Holland and Harrison are closer than Harrison and Ogando.
Napoli OPS .899
hehehehe
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Indeed.
Right in the middle of my .880 to .920 prediction. Lower than your floor though.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Last year wasn't a fluke...it was great and maybe his ultimate ceiling but I will be
shocked if he’s below .900 anv very surprised if it’s below .950.
Beltre OBP of .329?!?!? He was at .318 until he hit September.
Josh OPS below .850? He had an .852 OPS on the road last year.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Focus less on last season
And more on career numbers. That’s what these projection systems do, while factoring players getting older and environment changes and comps to other players with similar values.
They aren’t meant to be exact, but if you were to manually come up with values for all of the Rangers players, it’s very likely it would do better than you (or anyone for that matter).
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
When Beltre was in his prime as a player (2005-2009), his OBP was never above .328.
3 years later it’s supposed to be above that when he’s 33 years old?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
I didn't make the numbers.
But I encourage you to put your own in when we do the community projections and see if you can beat ZiPS.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
by Brad on Feb 8, 2012 11:33 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
He also played during that time in one of the best pitchers parks in baseball
A park that particularly depresses the numbers of RH power hitters.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 8, 2012 11:38 AM CST up reply actions
Last year he was in one of the very best pitchers parks in baseball and surrounded
with all kinds of offensive talent during the hottest summer ever in Texas and his OBP on August 31(.318) was snugly between the .304-.328 OBPs he had in Seattle.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Okay
ZiPS (and PECOTA, which has him at .328 this year) don’t care.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 8, 2012 12:05 PM CST up reply actions
And he was playing injured in August!
Hamstrings will affect things like a baseball swing, and running down the line. He comes back off of his injury, and he really didn’t want to take the time off, and gets well and goes on a hot streak. When Josh and Cruz came back off of their injuries, after a good rehab stint in Round Rock, they were hot. In fact, the second injury for Cruz he publicly lamented the fact he couldn’t get some rehab hitting in because the minor league seasons were over.
This is just a baffling complaint
You do know that they’ll schedule baseball in September again this year right?
Even if you think September numbers are completely irrelevant (which is an odd position), Beltre had a .331 OBP last year. They’re projecting it to go down slightly. I have no clue how you see this as a wildly optimistic projection.
He also played in two of the best pitchers parks before stopping in Boston
Chavez Ravine has never been a hitters park, and probably never will be even though Beltre had at least one exceptional season there.
ZIPS and Pecota
don’t have an agenda, that’s your department.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
Ram is a fine album
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
I don't have an agenda....Beltre's OBP last year going into September was .318.
For the year, his road OBP was .297.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Then why do you ignore
the effects his home park had on him before he came to TX while pointing out his home/road splits ad nauseum for 2011? He was helped at home last year, but severely hurt at home in several previous seasons by his park. You are cherry picking to suit your narrative.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
Not really...he's always been an undisciplined hitter who was prone
to shitty OBP’s whether or not he was in Seattle (.295 OBP on the road in 2007).
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Check that, .295 OBP on the road in 2005 (not 2007).
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
His road OBP was.320 in 2007 and .324 in 2009...you do realize
an OBP below .324 is extremely mediocre don’t you?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
So like I said 1 year below .320 in the last 8
4 of the last 8 years a road OBP of at least .343
2 below .324 which you deem “extremely mediocre”
Actually, it's now four years below .324 in the last 7 seasons.
.297 in 2005, .320 in 2007, .324 in 2009 and .297 in 2011.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
.295 in 2005
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
3 years BELOW .324 if you want to get technical
4 years below .325
So why again are we supposed to believe he will remain a sub .300 road OBP player in 2012?
And you realize a .325 OBP sucks I hope.
I imagine his road OBP is somewhere between .290-.310 in 2012 because he wasn’t good at getting on base in his prime and he turns 33 in early April.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
.325 on the road isn't great but it also isn't horrible
You just said above it was “extremely mediocre” now it “sucks”?
I expect Beltre to be right around .320 on the road again and likely have a .330+ again for the season. He’s never going to be a overly patient guy but I also dont believe his sub 300 like last year is going to become the norm just because he turns 33, which isn’t exactly old in the first place.
Your boy Michael Young has had 3 of the past 8 years with road OBP’s below .325 you realize right? Including a incredible .299 road OBP in 2010 at the age of 33. How did that affect him in 2011?
.325 would have been an above-average OBP in 2011, btw.
And just slightly below in 2010.
From a position where average is good.
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
Also, he just doesn't like Beltre.
It’s not a “I can convince him of something with logical debate” situation.
I think you know this.
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
This is bullshit.
I’ve said many times that Beltre was one of the best players in all of MLB last year when he was healthy and playing at home.
On the road, he sucked as a hitter and that has nothing to do with how much I “like” Beltre.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
PECOTA has Hamilton at 873
I’d wager Hamilton ends up somewhere in between.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 8, 2012 11:37 AM CST up reply actions
Last year was a fluke
Pretty much everyone is expecting him to put up an OPS in the high .800-low .900s this year. But the man put up a 1.00+ OPS, .444 wOBA and 178 wRC+ last year. He’s not going to repeat that. I’m not even going to go into his BABIP and HR/FB ratio.
by RangersfaninROK on Feb 8, 2012 11:47 AM CST up reply actions
ZiPS projected better than you in 2011.
So why should your incredulity be given any weight?
More importantly, why is the rest of LSB forgetting this?
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
by philkid3 on Feb 8, 2012 5:04 PM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
Projected what better than me?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
I would be happy with FACE's projection actualizing.
Michael Young R 3B 35 .291 .336 .431 144 585
Except the 3B part.
Everybody needs somebody to love... I need Yu, Yu, Yu! I need Yu, Yu, Yu!
I hope I haven't offended the Blues Brothers with this.
Brandon Webb gets 8 starts
that would suck
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
if ZIPS is right about Hamilton
he won’t get a $100M deal next winter
by RangerMad on Feb 8, 2012 11:40 AM CST via Android app reply actions
I think Josh repeats his 2008 with sobriety and good health (although he won't play more
than 145 games).
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
What makes you think this is the case?
And how confident are you he stays healthy and sober?
"Calmer than you are dude"
We tell our guys, control the controllables. Trust the process and don't sweat results. Be the casino.
by Arlington Stadium Legend on Feb 8, 2012 11:52 AM CST up reply actions
I thought the broken shoulder (arm?) injury was a fluke last year and he had surgery
on his sports hernia in the off-season. Per his sobriety, he’s fallen off twice in what, 5-6 years without failing a drug test.
If he can play at least 145 games, we saw what he could do in 2008.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
I hope you're right in this case.
He could get better, but one thing about his early broken arm was he didn’t have the knee problems last year he did the year before. I can’t even guess how badly the sports hernia affected his hitting late in the season.
well, Josh and "good health" don't exactly go hand in hand
2011 was generally the same as ’08 with fewer PAs, so that is closer to what you are really predicting.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
He played 156 games or some such in 2008.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
And that's the only season in which he played more than 140 games
and now he’s 4 years older than he was back then. What makes you so sure he can repeat 2008?
by RangersfaninROK on Feb 8, 2012 12:07 PM CST up reply actions
Shhhh
That game only counts with Beltre.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
by t ball on Feb 8, 2012 1:15 PM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
ZIPS has Beltre playing 128 games in 2012
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
hey, tardzilla
most projection systems do that
Just don't piss her off, otherwise she'll get all Dien Bien Phu up in your Boxer Rebellion - caknuck
btho Iowa State
"Tardzilla" cracks me up but ZIPS has Face playing 144 games, Moreland 143 games and Tiny E playing 156 games.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Moreland ain't playing 144 games
at least not as a starter
by RangerMad on Feb 8, 2012 7:42 PM CST via Android app up reply actions
Forecast systems do not generally deal in playing time.
That is the exact reason that forecasting performance and crowd sourcing depth, platoon work, and playing time is the best way to do it.
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
and Brandon Webb was the runner up for the Cy Young that year
times change, move on
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
Kim Kardashian has made nearly that much doing what she does, so I wouldn't bet against it.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
You really should let others handle the comedy.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
You should really let others handle smart baseball analysis
Patriotism is the willingness to kill and be killed for trivial reasons.
I think Maddux ha already said
they are going to skip some of his starts to limit his innings. He’ll be lucky to get 150 IP
by RangerMad on Feb 8, 2012 7:12 PM CST via Android app up reply actions
Ogando ain't in no stinkin bullpen.
Six starters logging over 150 IP… And then Feldman taking the ball 18 times, too.
Go Strangers.
Beltre's SLG is too low, IMFO.
We’re not about sending messages. We’re about winning ballgames.-Wash, 04/03/11
Hell to the fucking no. -Wash, 10/07/11
Napoli's ankle
It will be interesting to see how his power comes back considering his ankle injury.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
Catching, too....
"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Feb 8, 2012 1:33 PM CST up reply actions
true, dat
It’s one of the reasons I was hesitant about Fielder, the guy shouldn’t squat behind the plate 120 times a year.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
he wont.. didnt he only catch like 70 something games last season?
"God dammit TAG I swear to God if you keep this "It was a close play" shit up all night I will send you cookies made from my own shit" -River Fenix 8/26/2011
"this is a big reason I decided not to convert to Islam now if it was 72 skanks? Different story, my friend" Bob Loblaw 9/2/2011
by I am Neftali Feliz on Feb 8, 2012 1:47 PM CST up reply actions
I'd expect that number to go up a little this year
90-100 games maybe. Wash is going to have fun juggling Napoli with Young and Moreland at 1B, and with Young, Hamilton, etc. at DH.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
Agreed....
"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Feb 8, 2012 2:14 PM CST up reply actions
LSB is coming up weird on my Droid
Anyone else having issues (although this comment box came up fine)?
Football can go to hell. The Rangers aren't ready for football season and neither am I.
by WyoRanger on Feb 8, 2012 1:32 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Moreland
OPS+ of 96. Do we still need to upgrade 1B if he brings that level of performance?
Oh god yes.
OPS+ of 96 is fine for a SS or a CF.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
Maybe not
since Young and Napoli will get plenty of games there as well. It would be nice to upgrade, I suppose, but it would come at a cost in both trade pieces and lineup flexibility. Any ideas about replacing Moreland have to take Napoli and Young into account. I expect overall production at 1B to be good enough, and I think Moreland can beat that projection.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
Yes
According to what the doctor told Moreland, he had an “impact fracture” in the wrist that forced a bone out of place and it started grinding against cartilage.
Yeah
I’m operating under the assumption that Moreland’s hitting was really affected by the wrist. He’s not making excuses, but it sounds like he was hurting. IF he is fully recovered, I expect him to beat that projection and be closer to a 105 OPS+.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
I also think Moreland will do better.
I’m thinking 115 to 120.
"I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else." by Earl Weaver
also, hopefully, a low projection for Dutch.
11 wins… psshhaw.
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
Can I ask a stupid question without getting killed for it???
Do these projections assume how a player would preform if they’re were giving adequate playing time or is this projecting what they will do in the upcoming season at the big league level? For example, Brad Nelson and Chad Tracy on this list. Is this projecting what they will do in 2012 period or what they would do if they were starters at 1B?
I tried to search for an explanation and came up empty so maybe someone can just post a link to an explantion to help my ignorant self.
Go big or go home!! Bet big to win big!!
by Steamin' Beamin' on Feb 9, 2012 9:49 AM CST reply actions
nevermind, I hadn't scrolled down far enough
Go big or go home!! Bet big to win big!!
by Steamin' Beamin' on Feb 9, 2012 10:02 AM CST up reply actions
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