Over/Under Poll -- Mike Napoli OPS

by Adam J. Morris on Feb 8, 2012 2:02 PM CST

With the ZiPS projections coming out for the Rangers today, I thought I'd do a series of polls asking folks to pick whether they think various players will go over or under the OPS that ZiPS projects.

First off is Mike Napoli, who has the highest projected OPS among the Rangers, at 899.

Over or under?

Poll

Will Mike Napoli's OPS in 2012 be over or under 899?

Over

308 votes

Under

494 votes

802 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 69 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

Push!

Just don't piss her off, otherwise she'll get all Dien Bien Phu up in your Boxer Rebellion - caknuck

btho Iowa State

by MonkeyEpoxy on Feb 8, 2012 2:05 PM CST reply actions

900+, absolutely

by Jobu. on Feb 8, 2012 2:07 PM CST reply actions

I say push

I hope his ankle is fully healed. I expect him to come in close to that OPS, but with more PAs than ZIPS projects, so very valuable. I think he could top 6 WAR this year with the increase in playing time.

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Feb 8, 2012 2:09 PM CST reply actions

He had a career year...I expect some regression but it won't be a tailspin....

PROVE ME WRONG, NAPOLI!!!!

"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski

by GhostofSteveFoucault on Feb 8, 2012 2:15 PM CST reply actions

Prove you wrong that it won't be a tailspin?

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Feb 8, 2012 2:41 PM CST up reply actions

Prove me wrong and not regress....

Go right ahead and go over 900, Mike….I will gladly admit to being wrong…..

"I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski

by GhostofSteveFoucault on Feb 8, 2012 3:23 PM CST up reply actions

Under

by sprite on Feb 8, 2012 2:15 PM CST reply actions

Yup

by LiamP on Feb 8, 2012 2:38 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Oh, about 35,000

We’re not about sending messages. We’re about winning ballgames.-Wash, 04/03/11
Hell to the fucking no. -Wash, 10/07/11

by Rodney on Feb 8, 2012 2:16 PM CST reply actions

I'm expecting somewhere in the high 800s.

They that can give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.
- Benjamin Franklin

by JimCrankshaft on Feb 8, 2012 2:26 PM CST reply actions

Matchstick vs Jose Wales

battle to death (internet death) front page post

"God dammit TAG I swear to God if you keep this "It was a close play" shit up all night I will send you cookies made from my own shit" -River Fenix 8/26/2011

"this is a big reason I decided not to convert to Islam now if it was 72 skanks? Different story, my friend" Bob Loblaw 9/2/2011

by I am Neftali Feliz on Feb 8, 2012 2:33 PM CST reply actions

oops.. josey not jose (his brother)

"God dammit TAG I swear to God if you keep this "It was a close play" shit up all night I will send you cookies made from my own shit" -River Fenix 8/26/2011

"this is a big reason I decided not to convert to Islam now if it was 72 skanks? Different story, my friend" Bob Loblaw 9/2/2011

by I am Neftali Feliz on Feb 8, 2012 2:33 PM CST up reply actions

X

"the PGT isn’t about alerting drunk guys on their mobile as to what the score was." --goET 7-24-11

"Replace Ace? Done. Ace's was too long anyway." --Micah 1-17-12

by Atticus F on Feb 8, 2012 7:13 PM CST up reply actions

Even if his OBP drops, arbitrarily, to .360

which is probably closer to his career average prior to super-Napoli, he would “only” have to slug .540 to top a .900 OPS. Slugging .540+ isn’t easy, but I think it’s in line with what he can produce next year so I went Over.

by AjaxJones on Feb 8, 2012 2:39 PM CST reply actions

He has done it twice in his career

I don’t know. He doesn’t have much durability, but I will say over because of how great he was last year. His OBP was identical at home and on the road. If he manages a .375 OBP again I think he gets it.

by dumdum000333 on Feb 8, 2012 2:40 PM CST reply actions

I think he should be good for at least a .900 OPS so I'll go with the over.

Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"

Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."

by Gdawg on Feb 8, 2012 2:40 PM CST reply actions

I'm going under

/evanescence

"...out of the shadows of unprecedented success, the sun shines down upon this team waiting to thrill anew." - ghostofErikThompson

by jam0152 on Feb 8, 2012 2:46 PM CST reply actions 2 recs

This did not deserve a rec.

"...out of the shadows of unprecedented success, the sun shines down upon this team waiting to thrill anew." - ghostofErikThompson

by jam0152 on Feb 8, 2012 3:58 PM CST up reply actions 7 recs

Phosphorescent?

Football can go to hell. The Rangers aren't ready for football season and neither am I.

by WyoRanger on Feb 8, 2012 7:08 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Dave @ FG chat today:

Comment From MarinerDan
Who has the best lineup in baseball this year — it’s got to be Texas, right?

Yankees are up there too.

We’re not about sending messages. We’re about winning ballgames.-Wash, 04/03/11
Hell to the fucking no. -Wash, 10/07/11

by Rodney on Feb 8, 2012 3:01 PM CST reply actions

I'd say...

Roll the dice on Boston/NY/Texas. Too many question marks with injury, age and crazy 2011s (Ellsbury/Crawford big time in Boston) to predict.

Wish the Rangers had more than one 3-7 guy who wasn’t extremely swing-happy.

Over on Napoli, just by a bit.

by DShep on Feb 8, 2012 3:17 PM CST up reply actions

Napoli is far from swing happy

Actually, that’s one of the ways he improved last year so much. He swung a bit less, but made far better contact, especially on pitches out of the zone. His walk rate jumped. And the rest of the lineup is very aggressive, but at least they don’t strike out much.

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Feb 8, 2012 5:10 PM CST up reply actions

I think Napoli is the one DShep was talking about being not swing happy

Josh, Beltre, Young and Cruz all are pretty swing happy

by bigsteve on Feb 8, 2012 5:16 PM CST up reply actions

oh, yeah

my eyes glossed right over that one guy phrase, jeez. My point about the K’s holds, though. The Rangers swing a lot but are far from out machines.

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Feb 8, 2012 6:28 PM CST up reply actions

I tried to rec t ball's comment, but it wouldn't let me!

I knew coming in that Naps had power, but it was his discipline and power combination that really impressed me last year.

by Philar on Feb 9, 2012 9:47 AM CST up reply actions

under

But not by much.

by TStag23 on Feb 8, 2012 3:04 PM CST via iPhone app reply actions

I took the under

but I’m not thinking way under. .850-.875 range.

by TheHuntforRedOctober on Feb 8, 2012 3:13 PM CST reply actions

Under

It will be exactly .882

by Professor Ch@os on Feb 8, 2012 3:18 PM CST reply actions

Agree

by RichieGrogan on Feb 8, 2012 3:18 PM CST up reply actions

BR alltime rank among batters

685. Gorman Thomas
686. Ross Barns
687. Jayson Werth
688. Mike Naploi
689. Cesar Tovar
890. Vic Power
891. Jeremy Burnitz

by RangerMad on Feb 8, 2012 3:19 PM CST reply actions

Vic Power

I don’t know if that’s a better porn or baseball name.

"...out of the shadows of unprecedented success, the sun shines down upon this team waiting to thrill anew." - ghostofErikThompson

by jam0152 on Feb 8, 2012 3:22 PM CST up reply actions

Boof Bonser, Dickie Thon

by ok.fester on Feb 8, 2012 3:34 PM CST up reply actions

Fausto Carmona was a bad ass name.

Ended up being fake. Still pissed off about that.

613photo

by Black Francis on Feb 8, 2012 6:29 PM CST up reply actions

It wasn't "fake" just not HIS name

Football can go to hell. The Rangers aren't ready for football season and neither am I.

by WyoRanger on Feb 8, 2012 7:11 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Antonio Bastardo says hi

I shortened my sig so I wouldn't be frowned upon at Lookout Landing

by chrisR on Feb 8, 2012 11:49 PM CST up reply actions

That was my favorite name in baseball

I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)

by Gay For Feliz on Feb 9, 2012 7:29 AM CST via mobile up reply actions

I actually shook hands with Vic Power when I was a kid in Minnesota

I won a baseball bat from him, and he seemed like a very nice person. He was the starting first baseman for the Twins before Don Mincher took over in 1965.

by Philar on Feb 9, 2012 9:50 AM CST up reply actions

WHY WOULD YOU SHOW HIM HURT

"The fattest countries have the biggest tits" -Texas Jihad, 10-12-11

by hornedfrogs45 on Feb 8, 2012 3:38 PM CST reply actions 2 recs

any images of that game should be stricken from existence

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.

by NothinG on Feb 8, 2012 3:44 PM CST up reply actions

AJM can't resist the opportunity to do a little trollin'

by dolphinpuncher on Feb 8, 2012 7:17 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Over

http://texas.rangers.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=19942859&topic_id=players&query=type%3Djson%26player_id%3D435063%26start%3D0%26src%3Dvpp%26sort%3Ddesc%26sort_type%3Dcustom%26hitsPerPage%3D60&c_id=tex&playerName=Mike Napoli

by napdaddy on Feb 8, 2012 3:53 PM CST reply actions

That's probably my favorite and most perfect baseball moment

The hair raising Napoli chant in the background and then he just fuckin turns on one

The Hamilton dong in game 6 should be one, but alas

Just don't piss her off, otherwise she'll get all Dien Bien Phu up in your Boxer Rebellion - caknuck

btho Iowa State

by MonkeyEpoxy on Feb 8, 2012 6:51 PM CST up reply actions

The place went ape shit

I didn’t realize how clear the Napoli chants were on this video. good shit.
I remember being there like it was yesterday. good times

by napdaddy on Feb 8, 2012 10:20 PM CST up reply actions

Damn

That really, really, really made me miss baseball

by Dirk Diggler on Feb 8, 2012 10:50 PM CST up reply actions

Like

I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)

by Gay For Feliz on Feb 9, 2012 7:30 AM CST via mobile up reply actions

Like you needed another reason

I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)

by Gay For Feliz on Feb 9, 2012 7:30 AM CST via mobile up reply actions

Im going slightly under

I think he will OPS around .875. I also think that Hamilton will have a MONSTER (nothing to do with recent struggles or anything) year.

"JD gets complete blame or credit for what happens in 2010 and I think Nolan wants it that way. JD is paid to be a real GM and needs to start performing like one." - Josey Wales

by Michael Cave on Feb 8, 2012 4:16 PM CST reply actions

Under

I’m thinking .880

I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)

by Gay For Feliz on Feb 8, 2012 4:44 PM CST via mobile reply actions

Under

But not by much

by bigsteve on Feb 8, 2012 4:53 PM CST reply actions

This seems to be popular

I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)

by Gay For Feliz on Feb 8, 2012 4:55 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Over.

That was my worthless intuition, but I can back it up by CAIRO having him over, as well. So I’ll split the difference of the two and say he’ll be between .900 and .940.

I’m more comfortable with the ZiPS end of that scale, though.

SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!

by philkid3 on Feb 8, 2012 5:16 PM CST reply actions

Napoli has a career OPS of .996 in Arlington...I'm going to be shocked if he finishes

with an OPS below .950 if he’s healthy.

"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."

"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."

"You want false modesty? F that."

by Josey Wales on Feb 8, 2012 5:24 PM CST reply actions

If we have another summer

like last year, I’ll be adjusting my target upwards a bit.

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Feb 8, 2012 6:29 PM CST up reply actions

We will

I used to own Mickey Tettleton's couch.

by Pith on Feb 8, 2012 7:15 PM CST up reply actions

i thought it was "shocked" if under .900

And just “very surprised” if under. 950?
Sounds like someone is trying to straddle the fence of indecision.

by Soonernick on Feb 8, 2012 9:29 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

"The Fence of Indecision"

"I don't really like pitchers." - Nelson Cruz

by AceJC on Feb 8, 2012 10:03 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

MIKEY YOUNG

disagrees with this

"Why do people take such an instant dislike to me?" asked a perplexed [Newt] Gingrich, to whom [Bob] Dole bluntly explained: "Because it saves them time."

by gossamer on Feb 8, 2012 5:41 PM CST reply actions

Over but I think he'll probably end up right around there.

613photo

by Black Francis on Feb 8, 2012 6:30 PM CST reply actions

Over. .910

by dolphinpuncher on Feb 8, 2012 7:23 PM CST via mobile reply actions

Here's my PT friend's reponse to MLH's article on Hamilton from the other day.

Here’s your big test question. Ever see the man side step? he’d have no lateral shuffle/slide/step/etc with sig injury to adductors.

To have that many large muscles just “popping” off raises a flag. THere’s either seriously poor mechanics (in which case he wouldn’t have made it to pro?), pharmocologic involvement weakening tendons, and lousy athletic training with insufficient stretching and muscle power-strengthening only in mid-range and without emphasis on control of movement… However none of those seem like something pro will want to talk about…so good like finding answers

“There is quite a lot of conjecture in the medical community that athletic pubalgia can be related to degeneration in the lumbar spine which makes the athlete susceptible to this type of injury.” – I haven’t heard it if it exists.

“This is a worn out part. It is a repetitive injury, but there seems to be substantial research that indicates that it is not an isolated thing. " – typically. But does not mean it has to be. There are traumatic examples. There are also combinations of an acute/traumatic injury occurring precipitated by an underlying RSI (rep stress injury).

THe amt of injury claimed. I’d bet on the combo if i cared.

SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!

by philkid3 on Feb 8, 2012 9:13 PM CST reply actions

so in others words

he is fragile.

by RangerMad on Feb 8, 2012 9:36 PM CST via Android app up reply actions

Possibly.

SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!

by philkid3 on Feb 8, 2012 9:54 PM CST up reply actions

I have very little doubt he's used steroids

I don’t think that’s a radical suggestion by any means.

Also, I believe I’ve heard that he won’t do sit-ups? Additionally, I bet he stopped working out all together during his drug-binge, hiatus from baseball. So, a lot of that makes sense.

by Jobu. on Feb 8, 2012 10:44 PM CST up reply actions

Do you mean that you think he used them pre-hiatus/rehab etc.?

I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)

by Gay For Feliz on Feb 9, 2012 7:32 AM CST via mobile up reply actions

used steriods ever?

Or anytime since he resumed playing? I’d assume his weekly or whatever drug tests include steriods right or just “street” drugs for lack of a better term.

Go big or go home!! Bet big to win big!!

by Steamin' Beamin' on Feb 9, 2012 10:09 AM CST up reply actions

Under. But not by much.

Really I’d say push, but that wasn’t an option.

His career number is .873, so assuming he really has gotten better but will still face some regression in increased playing time… I’d peg him at right around .900.

Everything about people is the worst. - Jeff Sullivan

by LSJ on Feb 8, 2012 11:07 PM CST reply actions

.895

…slightly below

before there was law, there were the Cowboys!!!

by orli on Feb 9, 2012 4:29 AM CST reply actions

Over

Even if he regresses, if he stays disciplined at the plate, and RBiA hitting moves him up over his career average, I think he will be .900 or higher. I tend towards optimism, but in this case I think he will have another very good year.

by Philar on Feb 9, 2012 9:56 AM CST reply actions